[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|汽车与汽车零部件 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 【广发汽车&电新&海外】小鹏汽 | | --- | | 车-W(09868.HK)/小鹏汽车(XPEV) | | 十载磨砺成体系，多维增长引擎或将驱动 | | 价值重估 | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | EBITDA | -9,307 | -4,523 | 185 | 3,590 | 6,812 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归母净利润 | -10,431 | -5,761 | -1,647 | 2,045 | 4,739 | | 增长率（ % ） | - | - | - | - | 131.7% | | EPS（元/股） | -5.53 | -3.03 | -0.86 | 1.07 | 2.48 | | 市盈率（P/E） | - | - | - | 56.0 | 24.2 | | ROE（%） | -28.7% | -18.4% | -5.6% | 6.5% | 13.1% | | EV/EBITDA | - | - | 500.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the digital family office and AI investment community, focusing on integrating family office services with AI financial technology [7] - The family office business is expected to experience strong growth, with plans to increase the number of clients from 60 to 200 and assets under management (AUM) from $2.5 billion to over $10 billion by 2026 [7] - The report highlights the significant policy advantages in Hong Kong that support the family office sector, including tax incentives and regulatory flexibility [7] Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: HKD 202.40 million - 2025: HKD 189.70 million - 2026: HKD 257.40 million (growth of 35.69%) - 2027: HKD 332.60 million (growth of 29.22%) - 2028: HKD 438.85 million (growth of 31.95%) [2] - Net profit forecasts are: - 2024: HKD 99.90 million - 2025: HKD 136.80 million (growth of 36.94%) - 2026: HKD 362.17 million (growth of 164.74%) - 2027: HKD 421.81 million (growth of 16.47%) - 2028: HKD 474.51 million (growth of 12.49%) [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2024: HKD 0.07 - 2025: HKD 0.09 - 2026: HKD 0.17 - 2027: HKD 0.20 - 2028: HKD 0.23 [2] Company Overview - The company operates as a diversified financial group with a focus on family office services, traditional financial services, and digital finance [12] - It has a total share capital of 2.07 billion shares and a market capitalization of HKD 39.1 billion [3] - The company has experienced fluctuations in its stock price, with a 30-day average trading volume of 54.48 million shares [3] Business Segments - The main revenue sources for the company include: - Licensed financial services: 57.64% - Family office services: 28.12% [13] - The company has seen significant growth in its family office services, with revenue increasing nearly 3.3 times year-on-year [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The Southeast Asian waste incineration market is poised for significant growth, with a projected demand for incineration capacity reaching 222,000 tons per day by 2030 and 491,000 tons per day by 2050, representing an investment opportunity exceeding 100 billion [6][15] - The domestic waste incineration market in China has entered a mature phase, with the operational capacity reaching 1.16 million tons per day by the end of 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [16][20] - The profitability of waste incineration projects in Southeast Asia is expected to be significantly higher than domestic projects, with potential net profit margins exceeding 25% under optimistic scenarios [6][15] Summary by Sections Domestic Waste Market - The domestic incineration market is relatively saturated, with listed companies' capacity under construction accounting for less than 10% of total operational capacity [16][26] - The business model of waste incineration is resilient, characterized by stable profits and strong cash flow, with a 4.9% year-on-year increase in revenue for the waste incineration sector in Q1-Q3 2025 [28][31] Southeast Asian Waste Incineration Market - Population growth and urbanization are driving waste generation, making incineration the preferred solution for urban management in Southeast Asia [6][15] - The incineration rate in Southeast Asia is expected to accelerate, with significant investment opportunities available [6][15] Profitability and Operational Risks - High electricity prices and disposal fees are enhancing profitability, with revenue from Southeast Asian projects estimated to be 1.8 to 2.7 times that of domestic projects [6][15] - The operational environment in overseas markets presents complexities that require enhanced local management and risk mitigation strategies [6][15] Recommendations - Focus on operators using BOT/BOO models for overseas investments, such as Weiming Environmental, Junxin Co., and China Tianying [6][15] - Consider equipment and engineering firms like Sanfeng Environment that leverage their manufacturing capabilities to enter overseas markets [6][15]

盈利预测：（本表归母净利润为经调整后净利润口径） | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 276,744 | 337,592 | 365,324 | 414,899 | 467,340 | | 增长率 （ % ） | 25.82% | 21.99% | 8.21% | 13.57% | 12.64% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 23,877 | 49,119 | -11,932 | 21,977 | 39,156 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 23,253 | 43,772 | -22,518 | 7,219 | 23,982 | | EPS（元/股） | 3.72 | 7.15 | -3.73 | 1.21 | 4.04 | | 市盈率（x） | 22.41 | 11.68 | - | 68.71 | 20.68 | 数据来源：公司财务报表，广发证券发展研究中心（1 港币=0.8898 人民币） [Table_Pa ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The latest financial reports from major tech giants indicate that the AI narrative is entering a new phase, where the market is systematically evaluating the actual contributions of AI to revenue structure, profitability, and cash flow, rather than just technological advancement or user scale [6][19] - Google has successfully integrated AI into its core businesses, enhancing profitability and operational efficiency, while Microsoft is focusing on building a new productivity ecosystem through AI, which may take longer to reflect in financial statements [6][21] - The differentiation in AI narratives is leading to a revaluation of companies based on their ability to demonstrate sustainable profitability from AI investments [21] Summary by Sections Google - Google reported a strong performance in Q4 2025, with revenue of $113.83 billion, up 18% year-on-year, and net profit of $34.46 billion, up 29.8% [9] - The cloud business saw a significant revenue increase of 48% year-on-year, driven by strong enterprise AI demand, with operating profit reaching $5.3 billion, reflecting a profit margin increase from 17.5% to 30.1% [11] - Capital expenditures for Google are projected to rise significantly, with $27.9 billion in Q4 2025 and an annual total of $91.4 billion, primarily focused on technology infrastructure [12] Microsoft - Microsoft achieved revenue of $81.3 billion in FY2026 Q2, a 17% increase year-on-year, with net profit rising 60% to $38.5 billion, influenced by OpenAI investment returns [15] - The Microsoft Cloud segment generated $51.5 billion in revenue, up 26%, indicating strong growth in enterprise AI and cloud services [15] - Azure's growth remains robust at nearly 40%, but there are signs of a slight slowdown in growth rate, with capital expenditures reaching $37.5 billion, focused on AI infrastructure [16][17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report discusses the impact of rising raw material costs on passenger car manufacturers, particularly focusing on the effects of copper, aluminum, and lithium prices on vehicle production costs [5][8][11][14] - It highlights that the cost increase for electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) is significantly influenced by the prices of copper and lithium, with estimated cost increases of approximately 2,300 RMB for EVs and 1,600 RMB for PHEVs due to copper price hikes, and 3,200 RMB for EVs and 1,500 RMB for PHEVs due to lithium price increases [5][11] - The report quantifies the cost impact on various manufacturers, indicating that companies like Chery, Geely, and Great Wall Motors experience relatively smaller increases in average vehicle costs due to their sales structure and the types of vehicles they produce [15][17] - It outlines five strategies that manufacturers can employ to mitigate the impact of rising raw material costs, including cost reductions through enhanced features, annual cost reductions, technological advancements, scale effects, and structural adjustments [22][23] Summary by Sections Section 1: Impact of Raw Material Price Increases - The report estimates that the increase in copper prices will raise the production costs of fuel vehicles, EVs, and PHEVs by approximately 800 RMB, 2,300 RMB, and 1,600 RMB respectively, while aluminum price increases will add about 700 RMB, 900 RMB, and 900 RMB to the respective vehicle types [5][8] - Lithium price increases are projected to raise costs by 3,200 RMB for EVs and 1,500 RMB for PHEVs, assuming a price of 160,000 RMB per ton [11][14] Section 2: Cost Pressure by Manufacturer - The report analyzes the cost pressure on manufacturers based on their sales structure, concluding that companies like Chery, Geely, and Great Wall Motors face smaller increases in average vehicle costs due to their diverse product lines and sales strategies [15][17] Section 3: Strategies to Mitigate Cost Increases - Manufacturers are expected to implement various strategies to counteract the impact of rising raw material costs, including: 1. Enhancing features while maintaining competitive pricing 2. Achieving annual cost reductions of around 2% 3. Utilizing technological advancements to lower costs 4. Leveraging scale effects to dilute fixed costs 5. Adjusting product structures to focus on higher-end models and exports [22][23] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a "shelf-style" investment approach, recommending attention to various companies within the passenger vehicle chain, including Geely, BYD, Chery, and others for potential investment opportunities [25]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the defense and aerospace industry, indicating an expected performance that will exceed the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [8]. Core Insights - SpaceX announced the acquisition of AI startup xAI to integrate rocket, satellite internet, AI technology, and social media platforms, aiming to create a comprehensive technology chain from Earth to space. This move is driven by the increasing demand for advanced AI systems, which is approaching the limits of traditional ground data centers [4]. - SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million satellites to establish an orbital data center system, which will support large-scale AI reasoning and data center applications. The satellites will be positioned in orbits ranging from 500 to 2000 kilometers, utilizing solar energy to reduce reliance on traditional batteries [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the supply chain, such as Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Minshida, Guobo Electronics, and others, as potential investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the significant advancements in commercial aerospace, particularly through SpaceX's integration of AI and satellite technology, marking a new phase in global satellite internet [4]. Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - Key companies in the industry are evaluated with their respective stock prices, expected earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and return on equity (ROE) metrics. For instance, Ruichuang Micro-Nano has a target price of 141.24 CNY per share for 2025E, with an EPS of 2.40 CNY and a PE ratio of 47.05 [5]. - Other companies such as Minshida and Guobo Electronics also show promising valuations, with target prices of 54.34 CNY and 75.93 CNY respectively, indicating strong growth potential [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on key players in the rocket, satellite, and terminal sectors, recommending investments in companies like Ruichuang Micro-Nano, Minshida, and Guobo Electronics, among others, due to their strong market positions and growth prospects [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the market by more than 15% over the next 12 months [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a stable performance in 2025, with revenue increasing by 0.5% year-on-year to RMB 14.72 billion, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 10.4% to RMB 1.23 billion, aligning with market expectations [7]. - The company demonstrated resilience in operations, maintaining stable sales volume and pricing despite a challenging market environment characterized by weak demand and low restaurant consumption [7]. - The introduction of new products and a potential recovery in the restaurant sector in 2026 are seen as opportunities for growth [7]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 14,815 million - 2024A: RMB 14,645 million - 2025E: RMB 14,722 million - 2026E: RMB 15,098 million - 2027E: RMB 15,521 million - Growth Rate: 5.5% (2023A), -1.1% (2024A), 0.5% (2025E), 2.6% (2026E), 2.8% (2027E) [3][11] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 1,337 million - 2024A: RMB 1,115 million - 2025E: RMB 1,231 million - 2026E: RMB 1,295 million - 2027E: RMB 1,366 million - Growth Rate: 5.8% (2023A), -16.6% (2024A), 10.4% (2025E), 5.2% (2026E), 5.4% (2027E) [3][11] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: RMB 2.76 - 2024A: RMB 2.30 - 2025E: RMB 2.54 - 2026E: RMB 2.68 - 2027E: RMB 2.82 [3][11] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: 24.1 (2023A), 27.4 (2024A), 21.4 (2025E), 20.3 (2026E), 19.3 (2027E) [3][11] - Return on Equity (ROE): 62.5% (2023A), 94.0% (2024A), 103.9% (2025E), 109.3% (2026E), 115.2% (2027E) [3][11] - EV/EBITDA: 7.7 (2023A), 7.9 (2024A), 6.4 (2025E), 5.8 (2026E), 5.2 (2027E) [3][11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 22.90 and a fair value of HKD 37.45 [4]. Core Insights - Lingbao Gold has undergone over 20 years of transformation focusing on gold resource development, establishing a structure of five major gold mines and one smelting processing enterprise [10][16]. - The company is expected to enter a cycle of increased reserves and production over the next five years, with strategic plans to enhance its scale and establish itself as a leading gold mining enterprise [10][60]. - The ongoing interest rate reduction cycle is anticipated to support a steady rise in gold prices, which will positively impact the company's performance starting in 2026 [10]. - Earnings forecasts indicate significant growth, with expected EPS of RMB 1.18, 2.57, and 3.03 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, leading to a projected PE valuation of 13 times for 2026 [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Lingbao Gold has developed a resource structure comprising five major gold mines and one smelting enterprise, with a total gold reserve of approximately 131.8 tons as of the end of 2024 [10][21]. - The company aims to solidify its foundation and expand its scale, targeting both domestic and international markets for resource integration [10][60]. Industry Analysis - The report highlights that the gold pricing system is expected to remain favorable, with gold prices projected to rise due to a weakening US dollar and lower real interest rates [10][60]. - The gold sector is anticipated to experience a valuation recovery as companies' performances improve with rising gold prices [10]. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - Revenue forecasts for the company show a growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 10.53 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 21.89 billion by 2027 [3]. - The report suggests that the company's strategic acquisitions and resource expansions will support its growth, leading to a fair value estimate of HKD 37.45 per share [10].

Group 1: Transportation Industry - The core variable for the aviation and airport industry is the recovery of ticket prices and profit improvement driven by demand. Domestic passenger volume is expected to grow moderately due to normalized consumer travel and increased leisure tourism, supported by refined airline revenue management [2] - The international routes may experience short-term fluctuations due to external uncertainties, but the long-term trend remains positive with the expansion of visa-free policies and improved outbound travel convenience [2] - Supply constraints and cost pressures are expected to amplify profit elasticity, as slow aircraft deliveries will keep capacity expansion restrained, and policies aimed at reducing competition will stabilize revenue quality [2] Group 2: Construction Materials Industry - The valuation of the construction materials sector is at a low point, with a focus on urban renewal initiatives. The allocation ratio for construction materials is projected to increase to 0.72% by Q4 2025, up by 0.11 percentage points from Q3 2025, indicating a positive trend in industry supply-demand dynamics and price expectations [2] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have issued guidelines to support urban renewal actions, emphasizing the construction of "two renewals and two new projects" and the ongoing upgrade of aging municipal facilities [2] - The combination of industry supply-demand optimization, price increase expectations, and overseas expansion is expected to drive ROE and valuation recovery [2]