[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业月报（2025 年 1-2 月） 1-2 月需求增速回落，2 季度供需面或逐步改善 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -20% -12% -4% 4% 12% 20% 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 03/25 煤炭开采 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]沈涛 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030001 | | | SFC CE No. AUS961 | | | 010-59136686 | | | shentao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 安鹏 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512030008 | | | SFC CE No. BNW176 | | | 021-38003693 | | | anpeng@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 宋炜 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260518050002 | | | SFC CE N ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|计算机 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 计算机行业 AI 2025 算力系列（四） 腾讯资本开支预期反映投入的务实灵活， 关注 AI 应用的高价值场景推进 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-03-20 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]刘雪峰 SAC 执证号：S0260514030002 SFC CE No. BNX004 021-38003675 -34% -20% -7% 7% 20% 34% 03/24 05/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 03/25 计算机 沪深300 | | gfliuxuefeng@gf.com.cn | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 周源 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260523040001 | | | 0755-23948351 | | | shzhouyuan@gf.com.cn | 请注意，周源 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the AI hardware industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition of AI from perception-based to generative AI, moving towards Agentic AI and Physical AI, as stated by NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang during the GTC conference [15]. - NVIDIA's new distributed inference service library, NVIDIA Dynamo, significantly enhances performance, achieving a 25-fold increase compared to the previous Hopper architecture [27]. - The anticipated demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture is projected to reach 3.6 million units in 2025, reflecting a substantial increase in data center capital expenditures, expected to exceed $1 trillion by 2028 [19]. Summary by Sections 1. NVIDIA: Transition to Agentic AI & Physical AI Era - Jensen Huang announced the evolution of AI technologies at the GTC conference, emphasizing the importance of scaling laws in AI development [15]. - The scaling laws will follow a three-phase evolution: pre-training expansion, post-training expansion, and testing time expansion [15]. 2. AI Models and Applications (1) AI Models - The report discusses the structure and components of AI models, including the scaling laws that dictate performance improvements with increased model size and training data [66]. - It details various parallel training strategies, such as data parallelism and pipeline parallelism, which enhance computational efficiency [70]. (2) AI Applications - NVIDIA's CUDA-X library is highlighted for its application across various fields, including astronomy and automotive industries, showcasing the versatility of AI technologies [21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the rapid development of AI models and applications will benefit the AI hardware supply chain, with NVIDIA leading the industry upgrades [5][19]. - It encourages investors to focus on companies within the AI hardware ecosystem that are poised to capitalize on these advancements [5].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for multiple companies within the AI hardware industry, including Lixun Precision, Northern Huachuang, and others, with specific target prices set for each [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the transition of AI from perception-based to generative AI, moving towards Agentic AI and Physical AI, as stated by NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang during the GTC conference [15]. - NVIDIA's new distributed inference service library, NVIDIA Dynamo, significantly enhances performance, achieving a 25-fold increase compared to the previous Hopper architecture [27]. - The anticipated demand for NVIDIA's Blackwell architecture is projected to reach 3.6 million units in 2025, indicating a robust growth trajectory for AI hardware [19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: NVIDIA's Transition to Agentic AI & Physical AI - Jensen Huang announced the evolution of AI technologies at the GTC conference, emphasizing the shift towards more advanced AI models [15]. - The scaling law for AI development is described as hyper-accelerated, focusing on pre-training, post-training, and testing time expansions [15]. Section 2: AI Models and Applications - The report discusses the increasing computational demands of AI models, with NVIDIA's Dynamo library optimizing inference processes to maximize token revenue [23][25]. - The performance of the Grace Blackwell NVLink72 chip is highlighted, showing a 25-fold improvement in efficiency when using the Dynamo service [27]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the rapid development of AI models and applications will benefit the AI hardware supply chain, with specific companies identified as key players in this growth [5]. - The introduction of new NVIDIA chips, such as Blackwell Ultra and Vera Rubin, is expected to further enhance AI processing capabilities, with significant performance metrics outlined [28][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Ping An Good Doctor (01833.HK) with a current price of HKD 7.71 and a fair value of HKD 9.42 [3]. Core Views - The company has shown continuous improvement in operations, achieving a revenue of RMB 4.808 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and has turned profitable with a net profit of RMB 0.81 billion [9][24]. - The report highlights the company's strategic collaboration with the Ping An Group, enhancing its healthcare and elderly care ecosystem, which has positively impacted both its F-end (individual) and B-end (corporate) businesses [9][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: RMB 4.674 billion - 2024A: RMB 4.808 billion - 2025E: RMB 5.421 billion - 2026E: RMB 6.143 billion - 2027E: RMB 7.008 billion - Revenue growth rates: -24.7% (2023A), 2.9% (2024A), 12.8% (2025E), 13.3% (2026E), 14.1% (2027E) [2][26]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: -RMB 0.323 billion - 2024A: RMB 0.081 billion - 2025E: RMB 0.133 billion - 2026E: RMB 0.200 billion - 2027E: RMB 0.274 billion - Adjusted net profit for 2025E: RMB 0.218 billion, 2026E: RMB 0.290 billion, 2027E: RMB 0.371 billion [2][26]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: -0.15 - 2024A: 0.04 - 2025E: 0.06 - 2026E: 0.09 - 2027E: 0.13 [2][26]. - **Gross Margin**: - 2023A: 32.3% - 2024A: 31.7% - 2025E: 32.1% - 2026E: 32.4% - 2027E: 32.4% [2][26]. Business Segment Performance - **F-end Business**: - Revenue in 2024 reached RMB 2.417 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with a decrease in paid user numbers by 5.7% to 24.8 million [10][11]. - **B-end Business**: - Revenue grew by 32.7% to RMB 1.432 billion, with paid user numbers increasing by 13% to 580,000, driven by the rapid expansion of corporate health management services [11][12]. - **Healthcare Services**: - Revenue increased by 4.9% to RMB 2.169 billion, with a gross margin of 43.3% [14][19]. - **Health Services**: - Revenue decreased by 7.6% to RMB 2.356 billion, with a gross margin of 21.3% [16][19]. - **Elderly Care Services**: - Revenue surged by 413.5% to RMB 0.283 billion, with a gross margin of 29.1% [19][20]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth in 2025-2026, with adjusted net profits projected at RMB 2.18 billion and RMB 2.90 billion respectively [22][24]. - The report suggests that the company will continue to enhance operational efficiency and expand its customer base in both F-end and B-end segments, which will further drive profitability [22][24].

Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Buy [2] - Core Viewpoint: The report focuses on the valuation enhancement of overseas investment banks driven by regulatory easing and economic recovery, highlighting the significant increase in price-to-book (PB) ratios for major banks like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs from 2020 to 2024 [6][31] - The report indicates that the valuation premium for investment banks typically occurs during the initiation phase of regulatory easing cycles, which is accompanied by economic recovery and industry prosperity, driving profit expansion and valuation uplift [6][31] Group 2 - The report outlines that the valuation enhancement of overseas investment banks is catalyzed by regulatory easing, with significant liquidity release and optimization of capital efficiency leading to increased profitability in investment banking operations [6][31] - It anticipates further regulatory relaxation in the Trump 2.0 era, which could benefit various sectors including banking, asset management, cryptocurrency, and the M&A market, enhancing transaction volumes and market activity [6][31] - Investment recommendations include focusing on leading brokerage firms that are likely to benefit from M&A catalysts and favorable policies, such as China Galaxy, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities [6][31] Group 3 - The report provides a comparative analysis of the PB-ROE valuation framework among representative investment banks from China, the US, Germany, and Japan, indicating that US and Chinese banks exhibit higher valuation premiums due to flexible regulations and expansive markets [13][15] - It highlights the historical context of US financial regulatory cycles and their impact on investment bank performance, noting that periods of regulatory easing have consistently correlated with increased excess returns for investment banks [6][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic conditions and financial regulatory policies in shaping the profitability and valuation of investment banks, with a focus on the positive relationship between ROE growth and valuation expansion [6][31]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry [22]. Core Insights - The industrial sector's operating rates are generally higher than the same period last year, with notable increases in various sectors such as benzene-styrene (up 15.9%) and coke enterprises (up 3.6%) [3][4]. - Construction funding availability has improved, but physical workload still needs enhancement, with a national construction site funding availability rate of 57.2% as of March 11 [3]. - The real estate market shows positive trends, with a year-on-year increase in transaction volume in major cities, particularly in second-hand housing [5][6]. - Passenger vehicle retail sales in early March showed a significant year-on-year growth of 14%, indicating a recovery in the automotive sector [6]. - The container throughput at ports remains stable, reflecting steady export activity despite global economic uncertainties [10]. Summary by Sections Industrial Sector - High furnace operating rates reached 80.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0 percentage points [3]. - The operating rate for PTA in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased by 6.2 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Construction and Real Estate - The funding availability rate for construction sites improved by 0.75 percentage points from February [3]. - The average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 11.0% year-on-year [5]. Automotive Sector - Retail sales of passenger vehicles in early March increased by 14% year-on-year, with wholesale sales up by 26% [6]. - New energy vehicle sales saw a year-on-year growth of 44% [6]. Transportation and Logistics - Domestic flight execution rates showed a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, while international flights increased by 20.1% [5]. - Container throughput at ports increased by 11.3% year-on-year, indicating robust export activity [7]. Consumer Goods - The home appliance sector maintained relatively high offline sales growth, with air conditioning sales showing resilience despite some online declines [6][7]. - Food prices remained stable, with seasonal trends observed in pork and vegetable prices [9].

Group 1: Market Liquidity Tracking - The IPO scale last week was 2.2 billion, an increase from 1.7 billion the previous week, indicating a rise of 4.71 million [12] - The total margin financing balance increased by 182 billion, reaching approximately 1,917.47 billion [16] - The net inflow of southbound funds from Hong Kong was 576 billion last week, compared to 332 billion the previous week, totaling 908.09 billion for March [22] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The proportion of financing transactions was 9.65%, up from 9.43% the previous week, indicating a slight increase in market activity [30] - The average daily turnover rate was 1.75%, slightly higher than the previous week's 1.72%, suggesting stable trading sentiment [30] - Institutional funds saw a net outflow of 126 billion, contrasting with a net inflow of 5.31 billion the previous week [31] Group 3: Other Key Indicators - The total value of restricted stock unlocks was 332 billion last week, unchanged from the previous week, with an expected unlock of 122 billion this week [33] - The central bank's open market operations and MLF net withdrawal amounted to 1,917 billion last week, with a reverse repurchase net withdrawal of 2,517 billion [36] - The M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.00%, while M1 saw a slight increase of 0.10% year-on-year [36]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 5.69 CNY and a fair value of 6.88 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company has faced continuous pressure on its performance, with a significant decline in revenue and profit margins. However, it has managed to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio [7][13]. - The company achieved a sales amount of 105.4 billion CNY in 2024, ranking tenth in the industry, indicating a strong market position despite overall market challenges [7][34]. - The company has a stable debt level and has optimized its financing costs, which supports its liquidity and operational capabilities [7][20]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 599.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion CNY, down 48.2% year-on-year [7][13]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.9 billion CNY, maintaining a payout ratio consistent with previous years [7][13]. - The overall gross margin declined to 14.3%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to lower project margins from past acquisitions [7][25]. Sales Analysis - The company achieved a sales amount of 1054 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, but it improved its ranking in the industry to tenth place [7][34]. - The sales area was 3.7 million square meters, with an average selling price of 28,529 CNY per square meter, reflecting a decrease in both area sold and price [34][35]. Land Acquisition and Construction Analysis - The total land acquisition cost was 9.41 billion CNY, with a focus on high-margin projects in first and second-tier cities [7][34]. - The company completed 4.88 million square meters of construction in 2024, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [7][21]. Financial Stability - As of the end of 2024, the company had total interest-bearing liabilities of 141.6 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a financing cost reduced to 5.22% [7][20]. - The company has a pre-sale fund of 87.4 billion CNY, which covers approximately 1.6 years of revenue, providing a buffer for future performance [20][21]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to recover with projected net profits of 11.8 billion CNY and 13.2 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential for profit recovery [7][8]. - The fair value estimate of 6.88 CNY per share corresponds to a 16x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, supporting the "Buy" rating [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 3.257 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 29.49%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 352 million yuan, with a growth of 2.67% [9][10]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its capabilities in low-altitude cloud and commercial aerospace, aiming for a comprehensive development strategy across the entire aerospace industry chain [10][12]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are expected to be 0.87, 1.26, and 1.84 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 69.95 yuan based on an 80x PE valuation for 2025 [15][22]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 2.516 billion yuan - 2024A: 3.257 billion yuan - 2025E: 4.527 billion yuan - 2026E: 6.355 billion yuan - 2027E: 9.045 billion yuan - Growth Rates: 59.5% (2023A to 2024A), 29.5% (2024A to 2025E), 39.0% (2025E to 2026E), 40.4% (2026E to 2027E) [2][19]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 343 million yuan - 2024A: 352 million yuan - 2025E: 475 million yuan - 2026E: 687 million yuan - 2027E: 1.002 billion yuan - Growth Rates: 41.1% (2023A to 2024A), 2.7% (2024A to 2025E), 35.1% (2025E to 2026E), 44.6% (2026E to 2027E) [2][19]. - **EBITDA Forecast**: - 2023A: 556 million yuan - 2024A: 694 million yuan - 2025E: 1.273 billion yuan - 2026E: 1.721 billion yuan - 2027E: 2.308 billion yuan [2]. Business Strategy and Development - The company is implementing a "1+2+N+M" strategy for low-altitude capabilities, which includes building a "Star Map Low-altitude Cloud" and establishing two low-altitude experimental fields [12]. - The company is expanding its business into the commercial aerospace sector, enhancing its satellite application capabilities and developing upstream satellite constellation operations [13][14]. - The company is focusing on various sectors, including special fields, government services, meteorology, aerospace control, enterprise energy, and online services, with significant projected growth in each area [15][19][21]. Valuation and Market Position - The report compares the company with peers in the digital earth sector, highlighting its competitive advantages in data acquisition and processing capabilities [22]. - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of digital earth applications and its proactive approach in low-altitude economy and commercial aerospace markets [15][22].