Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply contraction trend is clear, and it is a good time for left-side layout [6] - The domestic raw milk supply still requires import supplementation, with imports accounting for about 20% [6] - The core of domestic supply lies in the number of dairy cows and yield levels, while imports depend on domestic and foreign price differences [6] - A supply turning point is gradually emerging, with a new cycle expected to begin in 2025 [6] - The investment suggestion emphasizes that the supply contraction trend is clear, and the industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming price cycle [6] Summary by Sections 1. High Degree of Industry Chain Scale, Domestic Raw Milk Supply Requires Import Supplementation - The raw milk industry is positioned upstream in the dairy product supply chain, with upstream farms selling raw milk to processing enterprises [15] - Domestic milk production has steadily increased, with a 36.5% growth from 2018 to 2023 [19] - Currently, about 20% of the domestic fresh milk supply needs to be supplemented by imported powder [19] 2. Supply Turning Point Gradually Emerging, New Cycle Expected in 2025 - The current downward cycle has lasted over three years, with a price adjustment depth greater than previous cycles [53] - As of December 2024, the cumulative reduction in dairy cow inventory is 4.55% [58] - The domestic raw milk price has fallen to around 3.12 CNY/kg, with social scattered milk prices dropping below cash cost lines [58] 3. Investment Recommendations - The supply contraction trend is clear, and the industry is expected to benefit from the upcoming price cycle [6] - Key companies to focus on include Modern Farming (01117.HK), Youran Agriculture (09858.HK), and Western Farming [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting long-term capital into the market to enhance the intrinsic stability of the market [7] - The growth in insurance premium income is driving an increase in the balance of funds utilized, with a year-on-year increase of 14% reaching 32.2 trillion yuan [7] - The report identifies three main bottlenecks for long-term capital entering the market, including short performance assessment cycles, the need for a more attractive investment ecosystem, and regulatory pressures on insurance companies [7] - The introduction of policies aimed at enhancing market stability is expected to improve investor confidence and resource allocation [7] - The report suggests that as external uncertainties and internal responses gradually materialize, market activity is likely to rebound [7] Summary by Sections Policy and Market Dynamics - On January 22, 2025, a joint implementation plan was issued by several financial regulatory bodies to encourage long-term capital market participation [7] - The report notes that insurance funds are currently a significant source of stable incremental capital in the equity market [7] Financial Performance and Projections - The report highlights that the insurance sector's asset allocation is under pressure due to a low interest rate environment, with a current equity allocation ratio of 20.4% [7] - The solvency adequacy ratio for the insurance industry stands at 197.4%, indicating room for increased equity investment [7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the non-bank financial sector for potential investment opportunities, particularly as policies are expected to stabilize the capital market [7] - The report also suggests that the market's active participation is anticipated to increase as new capital flows in [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of HKD 26.75 and a target value of HKD 34.20 [4][248]. Core Insights - The company is a leading urban gas provider in China, with a strong focus on city gas operations and a significant market share, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% in gas sales from 2008 to 2023 [9][39]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of LNG prices and the implementation of pricing policies that will enhance profitability [9][248]. - The report highlights the company's robust financial health, with a return on equity (ROE) consistently above 10% and a dividend payout ratio increasing to 50.3% in 2023, indicating strong shareholder returns [9][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is backed by China Resources Group and has been deeply involved in the urban gas sector for over 20 years, ranking among the top three in gas sales nationwide [21][23]. - As of 2024H1, the company operates 276 urban gas projects across 25 provinces, with a coverage of 97.08 million users [31][39]. 2. Pricing and Profitability - The company has seen a recovery in profitability due to the stabilization of gas prices and the implementation of a pricing mechanism that aligns sales prices with procurement costs [9][160]. - The average selling price of gas in 2023 was HKD 3.50 per cubic meter, with a gross margin of HKD 0.51 per cubic meter, showing improvement from previous years [160][248]. 3. Business Segments - Gas sales accounted for 82% of total revenue in 2023, with a significant contribution from the connection business, which, despite its smaller share, has a high profit margin [55][241]. - The comprehensive service segment has been growing rapidly, with revenues reaching HKD 40.45 billion in 2023, driven by kitchen and heating services [202][204]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of HKD 50 billion, HKD 57 billion, and HKD 63 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share (EPS) of HKD 2.17, HKD 2.44, and HKD 2.73 [9][243]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in gross margins, with expected improvements in the gas sales segment due to favorable pricing policies [239][240]. 5. Market Dynamics - The urban gas market in China is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing urbanization and the demand for cleaner energy sources [97][106]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with a strategic focus on expanding its service offerings and enhancing customer engagement through innovative service models [207][212].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shenzhen Airport (000089.SZ) with a target price of 7.84 CNY, indicating an expected upside from the current price of 6.88 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 39.98 million to 44.38 million CNY in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 0.78% to 11.88%. The non-recurring net profit is expected to grow significantly by 289.24% to 327.59% [8]. - The strategic partnership with "Zhongji Renjian" and "Low-altitude Industry Service Company" aims to enhance the company's presence in the smart airport and low-altitude economy sectors, which is expected to boost domestic demand [8]. - The report highlights a strong recovery in passenger throughput, with an expected annual total of over 60 million passengers in 2024, a 16.6% increase year-on-year [8]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2022: 2,671 million CNY - 2023: 4,165 million CNY (growth of 55.9%) - 2024: 4,531 million CNY (growth of 8.8%) - 2025: 4,912 million CNY (growth of 8.4%) - 2026: 5,291 million CNY (growth of 7.7%) [2] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2022: -1,124 million CNY - 2023: 397 million CNY (growth of 135.3%) - 2024: 437 million CNY (growth of 10.2%) - 2025: 639 million CNY (growth of 46.2%) - 2026: 759 million CNY (growth of 18.8%) [2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022: -0.55 CNY - 2023: 0.19 CNY - 2024: 0.21 CNY - 2025: 0.31 CNY - 2026: 0.37 CNY [2] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2023 is 33.25, decreasing to 18.59 by 2026 [2].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 13.71 CNY and a reasonable value of 16.45 CNY per share [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 3.476 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.4%, and a net profit of 626 million CNY, which is a 37.0% increase compared to the previous year [9]. - The company has accelerated the launch of new products in the fourth quarter of 2024, leading to a significant increase in revenue and achieving its annual revenue target [9]. - The competitive landscape in the seasoning industry is shifting towards larger players, benefiting the company as it continues to increase its market share [9]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 34.76 billion CNY, 40.02 billion CNY, and 44.83 billion CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 10.4%, 15.1%, and 12.0% [9]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 6.26 billion CNY, 7.23 billion CNY, and 8.12 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 37.0%, 15.5%, and 12.4% [9]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.59 CNY, 0.68 CNY, and 0.76 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8][9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on expanding its product channels, particularly in the online and small B channel markets, which are expected to grow rapidly [9]. - The company has a strong brand presence in the consumer market, particularly with its products like "Good People" and "Big Red Robe," which are anticipated to maintain steady growth [9]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the consolidation trend in the seasoning industry, as it has sufficient cash reserves to capitalize on potential acquisition opportunities [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 41.02 CNY and a fair value of 53.91 CNY [3][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face short-term performance pressure but is anticipated to enter a recovery phase by 2025. The external environment and the pace of expansion are impacting performance negatively in 2024 [7][8]. - The company has a strong position in the private hospital sector in China, benefiting from a differentiated business structure and nationwide layout, which provides significant growth potential [8][16]. Financial Forecast - The company's revenue is projected to be 26.89 billion CNY in 2024, 30.06 billion CNY in 2025, and 33.62 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of -1.1%, 11.8%, and 11.8% respectively [2][17]. - The EBITDA is expected to be 325 million CNY in 2024, 654 million CNY in 2025, and 943 million CNY in 2026 [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be -82 million CNY in 2024, 110 million CNY in 2025, and 284 million CNY in 2026 [2]. Business Segments 1. **Refractive Surgery Business** - The refractive surgery segment is expected to generate revenues of 12.43 billion CNY in 2024, 13.76 billion CNY in 2025, and 15.24 billion CNY in 2026, with a gross margin of 45.0%, 47.0%, and 49.0% respectively [9]. 2. **Optometry Business** - Revenue from the optometry segment is projected to be 3.81 billion CNY in 2024, 4.22 billion CNY in 2025, and 4.67 billion CNY in 2026, with gross margins of 44.0%, 46.0%, and 48.0% respectively [10]. 3. **Cataract Surgery Business** - The cataract segment is expected to generate revenues of 6.20 billion CNY in 2024, 7.13 billion CNY in 2025, and 8.21 billion CNY in 2026, with gross margins of 32.0%, 34.0%, and 36.0% respectively [11][12]. 4. **Comprehensive Eye Disease Business** - Revenue from comprehensive eye disease services is forecasted to be 4.29 billion CNY in 2024, 4.76 billion CNY in 2025, and 5.29 billion CNY in 2026, with gross margins of 10.0%, 12.0%, and 14.0% respectively [13]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned as a leading player in the private hospital sector, with a focus on major cities which have high consumer spending potential. However, it still lags behind industry leaders in terms of revenue scale and profitability [16][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 11.85 CNY and a fair value of 15.98 CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company's gaming revenue performance is outstanding, significantly releasing profits. Major products like "Age of Origins" and "War and Order" continue to rank high in the revenue charts for Chinese game developers overseas. The company is expected to see substantial growth in net profit for 2024, with estimates ranging from 1.38 billion to 1.49 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 55.66% to 68.06% [8]. - The software and information technology revenue is also on the rise, with stable growth in ICT operations and information security, alongside advancements in cloud services and IoT. The integration of AI is anticipated to drive revenue and improve profitability [8]. - The company maintains a strong focus on the SLG overseas market, with new games expected to contribute to revenue growth. The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 predict revenues of 64.02 billion CNY, 73.92 billion CNY, and 84.80 billion CNY, with respective growth rates of 7.4%, 15.5%, and 14.7% [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 4,806 million CNY - 2023: 5,962 million CNY (growth rate: 24.1%) - 2024: 6,402 million CNY (growth rate: 7.4%) - 2025: 7,392 million CNY (growth rate: 15.5%) - 2026: 8,480 million CNY (growth rate: 14.7%) [3]. - The forecasted net profit for the company is: - 2024: 1,427 million CNY - 2025: 1,431 million CNY - 2026: 1,646 million CNY [3]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be: - 2024: 0.73 CNY - 2025: 0.73 CNY - 2026: 0.84 CNY [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a REITs bull market driven by high-interest asset demand and the normalization of REITs issuance [1][6] - The C-REITs market is transitioning from a pilot phase to a normalized issuance phase, with significant policy support aimed at enhancing market quality and expanding asset coverage [14][17] - In 2024, C-REITs achieved a comprehensive return increase of 11.44%, a significant recovery from a decline of 17.35% in 2023 [6][107] Policy Overview - The main policy direction for 2024 is to fully promote the normalization of REITs issuance and clarify the equity attributes of REITs products [14][17] - Key policies include the introduction of simplified application processes and the expansion of asset categories eligible for REITs [22][25] - The introduction of tax incentives, such as stamp duty exemptions for asset restructuring and equity transfers, aims to lower issuance costs and encourage participation [45][46] C-REITs Market Size - The C-REITs market expanded from 29 to 58 REITs, with total market capitalization increasing from 82.33 billion to 156.40 billion RMB, a growth of 89.96% [51][57] - The market is expected to continue growing, with new projects contributing significantly to market expansion [60][61] Financial Analysis - In the 2024 fiscal year, 41 C-REITs generated total revenue of 11.74 billion RMB, with an EBITDA of 7.48 billion RMB and a distribution amount of 6.99 billion RMB [88][89] - Compared to 2023, the overall performance of C-REITs showed a decline in revenue, EBITDA, and distributable amounts by 5.31%, 6.05%, and 7.90% respectively [89][90] Market Performance and Influencing Factors - C-REITs demonstrated a comprehensive return of 11.44% in 2024, outperforming other asset classes and indicating a recovery from previous declines [107][116] - The report identifies that the performance of C-REITs is closely linked to significant policy announcements and market conditions, with notable fluctuations during periods of economic uncertainty [118][128] Segment Performance - The report highlights that the rental housing REITs segment achieved the highest growth at 30.09%, followed by the renewable energy sector at 21.40% [141][142] - The logistics sector lagged behind with a minimal increase of 0.19%, primarily due to negative operational events affecting investor sentiment [141][142] Individual Stock Performance - The report indicates that newly issued REITs and those with stable operational performance tend to have better stock price performance [155][156] - The top-performing stocks in 2024 were predominantly from the renewable energy and rental housing sectors, reflecting strong market interest and stable earnings [155][156]

Xml [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|软件与服务 2025 年 1 月 21 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 美股科技股观察 | 24Q4 业绩跟踪 台积电业绩强劲，AI 需求高增长，未来五年指引乐观 | [Tabl 分析师： | 杨琳琳 | | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514050004 | | | SFC CE.no: BNC117 | | | 0755-23480370 | | | yll@gf.com.cn | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 相关研究 [Table_Report ： ] 【广发 TMT 产业研究】美股科技股观察 | 24Q3 业绩跟踪:台积电业绩强劲并上调全年指引，Netflix 延续增势继续上 调指引 2024-10-27 【广发 TMT 产业研究】美股科技股观察 | 24Q2 业绩跟踪:台积电业绩强劲并上调全年指引，Netflix 延续增势 Q3 指 引略放缓 2024-07-24 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 11 [Table_C ontacter] ⚫ 台积电发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 38.35 CNY and a reasonable value of 45.52 CNY, indicating a potential upside of approximately 18.5% [4]. Core Views - The company's performance continues to improve, with significant momentum expected in the future. The 2024 revenue forecast is between 3.77 billion to 3.93 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.7% to 12.3%, with a midpoint of 10% [10]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 to 285 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 262.9% to 290.3%, with a midpoint growth of 276.6% [10]. - Cost control and efficiency improvements have led to a significant release of performance elasticity, with the company expected to report a single-quarter revenue of 1.13 billion CNY in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23.6% [10]. - The outlook for 2025 remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by increased focus on baked goods in supermarkets and improvements in the frozen baking business [10]. - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.85 billion, 4.22 billion, and 4.59 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 3.6 billion CNY [10]. Financial Forecast - The company’s revenue for 2022 was 2.911 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 3.3%. In 2023, revenue increased to 3.499 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 20.2%. The forecast for 2024 is 3.850 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 10.0% [9]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 514 million CNY, with a significant increase from 257 million CNY in 2023 [9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 73 million CNY in 2023 to 275 million CNY in 2024, marking a growth rate of 276.2% [9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.43 CNY in 2023 to 1.62 CNY in 2024 [9].