Core Insights - The report emphasizes the investment opportunities in optical interconnect Scale-Up, driven by advancements in AI and the need for enhanced data center capabilities [5][14]. - The communication sector has shown strong performance, with the communication index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 5.75 percentage points during the reporting period [17][18]. - Key events include the launch of new AI agents that enhance productivity and the growing demand for optical modules in data centers, indicating a robust market outlook [12][41]. Market Review - The communication sector's performance from January 26 to January 30, 2026, showed a gain of 5.83%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300 index, which only increased by 0.08% [17]. - Over the past 30 days, the communication sector rose by 5.8%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 1.4%, indicating a strong relative performance [18]. - Year-to-date, the communication sector has gained 6.8%, again outperforming both the CSI 300 and the ChiNext indices [18]. Industry Data Updates - As of the end of 2025, China had 4.838 million 5G base stations, marking a net increase of 588,000 from the previous year, with 5G stations accounting for 37.6% of all mobile phone base stations [31]. - In December 2025, the domestic smartphone shipment reached 24.473 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, with 5G smartphones making up 90.4% of the total shipments [35]. - The number of mobile IoT terminal users reached 2.888 billion by the end of 2025, reflecting a net increase of 232 million users [38]. Key News Recap - Cignal AI projects that the optical module market will exceed $18 billion by 2025, driven by AI-related data center and transmission network construction [41]. - Corning has entered a $6 billion partnership with Meta to accelerate the construction of advanced data centers in the U.S., highlighting the growing demand for optical solutions [42]. - Alibaba has launched its high-end AI chip, Zhenwu 810E, which competes with Nvidia's H20, showcasing advancements in AI hardware [43]. - Meta plans to increase its capital expenditure to between $115 billion and $135 billion in 2026, reflecting significant investment in AI and core business operations [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as switching equipment, NPO, and DAC/AEC as potential investment opportunities in the communication industry [15].

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in the proportion of southbound capital transactions, which has risen to 20%-30% since September 2024, nearly doubling compared to before 2024. This trend indicates that both active and passive foreign capital are closely aligned with the Hong Kong stock market, lacking any leading indicators [3]. - The report discusses the recent implementation of a capacity pricing mechanism for power generation by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration, which aims to enhance the marketization of electricity pricing and support the development of the electricity market [3]. - The macroeconomic outlook suggests potential shifts in the Federal Reserve's policy framework under the nomination of Walsh, focusing on supply-side analysis and price stability, which could impact market dynamics significantly [3]. Southbound Capital Strategy - Since September 2024, the share of southbound capital transactions has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, indicating a strong inflow of medium to long-term funds into the Hong Kong stock market [3]. - The report notes that southbound capital tends to react to market conditions, with a tendency for reverse buying during market downturns, reflecting a growing influence in sectors like semiconductors and dividends [3]. - The report anticipates that the fourth quarter will see significant inflows into Hong Kong stocks primarily from passive ETFs and insurance funds, suggesting a shift in investment strategies [3]. Power Equipment Sector - The newly introduced capacity pricing mechanism is expected to enhance the marketization of electricity pricing, which will support the development of the electricity market and improve revenue for storage and generation sectors [3]. - The report emphasizes that the capacity pricing mechanism will gradually transition towards a fully market-oriented approach, which is crucial for the future of electricity trading [3]. - The new policies are expected to increase revenue for storage solutions, potentially alleviating cost pressures on battery and material prices [3]. Macroeconomic Outlook - The nomination of Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair may lead to a paradigm shift in policy analysis from demand-side to supply-side, focusing on price stability as the core of monetary policy [3]. - The report highlights two critical areas for validation: the potential for AI to significantly enhance productivity and whether a loose monetary policy under these conditions will not lead to inflation [3]. - If these expectations are not met, the market may face challenges related to term premiums and inflationary pressures [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of 18.30 RMB and a fair value of 20.41 RMB [9]. Core Insights - The modular design and manufacturing are critical components in the FPSO midstream sector, with significant advantages over non-modular construction methods [9][27]. - The domestic offshore oil and gas development is accelerating due to energy security policies, with the FPSO upper module market expected to reach approximately 10 billion USD annually [9][32]. - The company has demonstrated competitive manufacturing capabilities in the FPSO sector, with plans to expand its production capacity at the Nantong base [9][53]. Summary by Sections 1. Modular Design and Manufacturing - The FPSO industry is primarily composed of three segments: upstream (raw materials and equipment suppliers), midstream (module design and manufacturing), and downstream (client companies) [23]. - Modular construction significantly reduces construction time and costs while improving quality and safety compared to traditional methods [27]. 2. Energy Security and Market Growth - The Chinese government is promoting deep-sea economic development, which is expected to enhance offshore oil and gas capital expenditures [32]. - The annual market size for FPSO upper modules is projected to be around 10 billion USD, driven by domestic policies and international investments, particularly from Brazil [32][45]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The FPSO market is characterized by a few dominant players, with Chinese companies like the company in question, CNOOC Engineering, and CIMC Raffles gaining prominence due to their manufacturing capabilities and cost advantages [49][50]. - The company has engaged in significant projects, including its first FPSO design and manufacturing contract with a Dutch firm, showcasing its growing capabilities in the sector [53]. 4. Financial Projections - The company is expected to generate revenues of 2.905 billion RMB in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 5.5% in 2026 and 30.5% in 2027 [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 215 million RMB, with expected growth rates of -10.7% in 2025, 21.9% in 2026, and 35.5% in 2027 [4][60].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The seed industry is currently in a destocking phase, with significant losses reported. The total net profit of listed seed companies from 2021 to Q3 2025 was only positive in 2023, with a collective net profit nearing -1 billion yuan in Q3 2025. The inventory level is also high, exceeding 12 billion yuan, the highest since 2015. The corn seed production area has been declining, with a 10% year-on-year decrease expected in 2025, resulting in a production volume of 1.527 billion kilograms, also down by 10% year-on-year [7][13]. - Policy changes are encouraging breeding innovation, leading to a decrease in the number of approved corn varieties. The revised Plant Variety Protection Regulations published in April 2025 aim to strengthen variety rights protection and stimulate breeding innovation. In 2025, a total of 1,564 crop varieties were approved, with a notable reduction in corn varieties compared to 2024 [24][25]. - The number of high-quality, disease-resistant rice varieties is increasing, with the "three good varieties" (high yield, quality, and green) rising from 22 in 2022 to 53 in 2025. New rice varieties have shown significant yield improvements, with some varieties increasing yield by over 5% [39][40]. - The focus on corn is shifting towards improving planting density and yield levels. The average yield of newly approved corn varieties has surpassed 800 kilograms per mu, a 1.7% increase year-on-year, with some varieties in the Northwest ecological zone exceeding 1,000 kilograms per mu [54][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Seed Industry in Destocking Phase - The seed industry is experiencing a downturn, with significant losses and high inventory levels. The corn seed production area and yield are both declining [7][13]. 2. Policy Encouragement for Breeding Innovation - New regulations are promoting breeding innovation, resulting in fewer approved corn varieties while increasing the number of approved rice varieties [24][25]. 3. Rice: Increase in High-Quality Varieties - The number of high-quality rice varieties is on the rise, with significant improvements in yield and disease resistance [39][40]. 4. Corn: Emphasis on Planting Density and Yield - There is a growing emphasis on increasing planting density and yield levels in corn production, with new varieties showing improved yields [54][56]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with research and development advantages, such as Longping High-Tech, Denghai Seeds, and Qianyuan High-Tech [7][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The strategic partnership with Sony aims to establish a joint venture for integrated operations in the home entertainment sector, which includes television and audio products [9] - The collaboration is expected to leverage both companies' strengths, enhancing technology, scale, and global presence [9] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at HKD 116.4 billion, HKD 132.3 billion, and HKD 145.8 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 26 billion, HKD 31 billion, and HKD 36 billion [9][10] - The report anticipates a significant increase in earnings per share (EPS) from HKD 0.30 in 2023 to HKD 1.43 by 2027 [4][14] Financial Projections - Revenue (in million HKD): - 2023A: 78,986 - 2024A: 99,322 - 2025E: 116,386 - 2026E: 132,328 - 2027E: 145,814 - Growth Rates (%): - 2023A: 10.7% - 2024A: 25.7% - 2025E: 17.2% - 2026E: 13.7% - 2027E: 10.2% [4] - EBITDA (in million HKD): - 2023A: 3,229 - 2024A: 4,457 - 2025E: 5,421 - 2026E: 6,578 - 2027E: 7,205 [4] Profitability Metrics - Return on Equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 4.5% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2027 [4] - The report estimates a PE ratio of 13x for 2026, leading to a target price of HKD 16.25 per share [9][14] Business Segments - Display Business Revenue (in million HKD): - 2024A: 69,440 (YoY: 23%) - 2025E: 77,884 (YoY: 12%) - 2026E: 86,430 (YoY: 11%) - 2027E: 94,691 (YoY: 10%) [11] - Innovative Business Revenue (in million HKD): - 2024A: 27,009 (YoY: 45%) - 2025E: 35,386 (YoY: 31%) - 2026E: 42,376 (YoY: 20%) - 2027E: 47,192 (YoY: 11%) [11] - Internet Business Revenue (in million HKD): - 2024A: 2,627 (YoY: -5%) - 2025E: 3,038 (YoY: 16%) - 2026E: 3,440 (YoY: 13%) - 2027E: 3,845 (YoY: 12%) [11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the commercial aerospace and large aircraft sectors, highlighting the importance of the defense and military industry in these areas [2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - The Chinese aerospace sector is set to advance with initiatives like the "Tian Gong Kai Wu" plan, focusing on space tourism, smart infrastructure, and resource development [13] - The commercial aircraft and aerospace sectors are experiencing sustained high demand, with a focus on self-reliance in aviation engine development and the establishment of a strong aviation industry [14] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - The report identifies three key investment themes based on the "S-curve" evolution: 1. Supply chain reform and maintenance growth, recommending companies like AVIC Power and AVIC Control [15] 2. Expansion into overseas markets and civilian applications, recommending companies such as Guorui Technology and China Power [15] 3. New emerging industries like commercial aerospace and AI, recommending companies like Ruichuang Micro-Nano and Feilihua [15] Group 3: Company Analysis - AVIC Power is positioned as a core supplier in the aviation sector, benefiting from high-end aircraft production and potential market share growth in the civil aviation engine sector [21] - AVIC Heavy Machinery is expected to see revenue growth due to its comprehensive product offerings in aviation and engine sectors, with a focus on high-value components [23] - Guorui Technology is leveraging its radar business and low-altitude safety solutions, with projected revenue growth driven by defense modernization and low-altitude economic development [20] - Feilihua is a leading supplier of quartz materials for aerospace and semiconductor industries, benefiting from ongoing demand in both sectors [19] - Ziguang Guowei is focusing on the IC industry, with significant growth expected in the AI and communication sectors, emphasizing its competitive advantages in domestic and international markets [18]

[Table_Page] 金融工程|量化投资策略月报 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 1 月量化转债组合超额 0.43% 量化转债月度跟踪（2026 年 02 月） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 图：量化转债组合业绩表现 | 表：转债指数择时信号 | | | --- | --- | | 模型 | 观点 | | 价量模型 | 1 | | 定价模型 | 1 | | 凸性模型 | 0 | | 仓位 | 67% | 数据来源：Wind, 广发证券发展研究中心 | [分析师： Table_Author]张超 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260514070002 | | | SFC CE No. BOB130 | | 020-66335132 | | | | zhangchao@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 安宁宁 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | | | anningning@gf.com.cn | | ...

Core Insights - The agricultural sector underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points in January 2026, with a decline of 0.2% for the sector compared to a 1.7% increase for the index [15][17]. - Low-cost pig farming enterprises are showing competitive advantages, with significant performance differentiation among companies as indicated by their annual earnings forecasts [4][29]. Market Review - In January 2026, the agricultural sector's performance lagged behind the CSI 300 index by 1.8 percentage points, with the sector down 0.2% while the index rose 1.7% [15][17]. - The planting, animal health, fishery, and agricultural processing sub-sectors saw increases of 13.7%, 13.0%, 10.0%, and 6.6% respectively, while feed and livestock farming sub-sectors decreased by 0.1% and 5.1% [15][18]. Livestock Farming - The average price of live pigs in January 2026 was 12.53 CNY/kg, reflecting an 11.8% month-on-month increase but a 21.2% year-on-year decrease [29][34]. - The average profit for self-bred pigs was approximately 5.9 CNY/head, a month-on-month increase of 154 CNY/head, but a year-on-year decrease of 159.8 CNY/head [29][32]. - The average profit for purchased piglets was 47.5 CNY/head, with a month-on-month increase of 260.6 CNY/head and a year-on-year increase of 92.2% [29][32]. Raw Material Prices - In January 2026, the average spot price of corn was approximately 2365 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year increase of 10.6% [48][49]. - The average spot price of wheat was about 2520 CNY/ton, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 5.2% [54]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with cost advantages, such as Wens Foodstuffs Group and Muyuan Foods, while also considering companies like Dekang Agriculture and New Hope for their potential turnaround [4][29]. - For smaller livestock companies, attention is drawn to Tiankang Biological, Shennong Group, and Tangrenshen [4][29].

核心观点： [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|汽车 证券研究报告 | [Table_Title] 汽车行业周报 | | --- | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2026-02-01 "5326"SUV 市场空间持续扩容 | 14% | 6% | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -2% | 02/25 | 04/25 | 06/25 | 09/25 | 11/25 | 01/26 | -10% | | 汽车 | 沪深300 | | | | | | | | [分析师： Table_Author]张力月 | SAC 执证号：S0260524040004 | | | | | | | | 021-38003727 | zhangliyue@gf.com.cn | | | | | | | | 分析师： | 闫俊刚 | SAC 执证号：S0260516010001 | | | | | | | 021-38003682 | yanjungang@gf.com.cn | | | | | | ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] "沃什预期"与美元潮落：全球股市 定价锚的切换与重构 ——港股&海外周聚焦（2 月第 1 期） [ 报告摘要： [分析师： Table_Author]刘晨明 SAC 执证号：S0260524020001 SFC CE No. BVH021 010-59136616 liuchenming@gf.com.cn 分析师： 陈振威 SAC 执证号：S0260524090002 021-38003550 chenzhenwei@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈振威并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1/29 972918116公共联系人2026-02-01 18:23:01 ⚫ 新任美联储主席 Kevin Warsh 的确定，其经济学家时期，主张"降息与 缩表并行"。短期内有望支撑美元走强，并推动美债收益率曲线陡峭化， 对贵金属价格构成一定压力。从中长期看，美国债务结构性问题并未化 解，Warsh 的政策更多可 ...