[Table_Title] 渝农商行(601077.SH/03618.HK) 息差边际企稳，其他非息高增 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 公司评级 [Table_Invest] 买入-A/买入-H 当前价格 6.04 元/5.34 港元 合理价值 6.64 元/5.87 港元 前次评级 买入/买入 报告日期 2025-03-26 [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -12% -1% 10% 20% 31% 42% 03/24 05/24 07/24 09/24 11/24 01/25 03/25 渝农商行 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 | | 021-38003646 | | nijun@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 许洁 | | SAC 执证号：S0260518080004 | | SFC CE No. BNU965 | | 021-38003625 | | xujie@gf.com.cn | | 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 | | 持牌人，不可在香港从 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|通信 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 通信行业 英伟达 CPO 交换机发布，满足百万卡组网的低功耗需求 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2025-03-26 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 -14% -3% 8% 18% 29% 40% 03/24 06/24 08/24 10/24 01/25 03/25 通信 沪深300 | [分析师： Table_Author]韩东 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050005 | | 021-38003776 | | gfhandong@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 李璟菲 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523030005 | | 021-38003805 | | lijingfei@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： 王亮 | | SAC 执证号：S0260519060001 | | SFC CE No. BFS478 | ...

识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 30 [Table_Page] 行业专题研究|农林牧渔 2025 年 3 月 25 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 农林牧渔行业 "AI+农业"系列专题一：政策大力支持智慧农业发展，AI 赋能种植链前景可期 | [Tabl 分析师： | 钱浩 | 分析师： | 周舒玥 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260517080014 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523050002 | | | SFC CE.no: BND274 | | | | | 021-38003634 | | 021-38003537 | | | shqianhao@gf.com.cn | | zhoushuyue@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，周舒玥并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | ] 相关[Table 研究_Report ： | | | --- | --- | | 农林牧渔行业:如何理解近期 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a current price of HKD 2.98 and a fair value of HKD 3.83 [7]. Core Views - The company's annual performance shows continuous improvement, with a special dividend yielding over 7%. In 2024, the company achieved a main revenue of RMB 54.213 billion (up 22.5% YoY) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 3.862 billion (up 25.2% YoY) [7][9]. - The company added 6GW of green electricity, with clean energy accounting for 80% of its installed capacity. The total electricity sold reached 1,280 billion kWh (up 23.9% YoY) [7][9]. - The report highlights the integration progress of hydropower platforms and anticipates both profit and dividend increases [7][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Recovery Across Segments - The company reported a 25% YoY increase in overall performance, with a main revenue of RMB 54.213 billion and a net profit of RMB 3.862 billion [13][14]. - The revenue from various segments includes: thermal power (RMB 24.269 billion, +1.4%), hydropower (RMB 4.806 billion, +57.4%), wind power (RMB 11.737 billion, +34.6%), and solar power (RMB 9.492 billion, +57.9%) [17]. 2. New Clean Energy Installations - By the end of 2024, the company’s installed capacity reached 49.39GW, with clean energy installations increasing to 80.1%, up 4.7 percentage points YoY [39][41]. 3. Hydropower Platform Integration and Special Dividends - The company is accelerating capital operations, planning to inject hydropower assets into a new platform, which is expected to enhance shareholder value. The dividend payout ratio is projected to reach 68%, with a total cash dividend of RMB 2 billion [56][62]. 4. Asset Optimization and Stable Profitability - The company forecasts net profits of RMB 44.26 billion, RMB 50.49 billion, and RMB 56.03 billion for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.69, 6.74, and 6.08 [66].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music (TME) with a current price of $15.09 and a fair value of $16.36 [9][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent Music's profit performance exceeded expectations, balancing membership growth and ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) [3][9]. - The company is expected to continue enhancing its SVIP (Super VIP) membership scale and ARPU, leading to steady revenue growth [9][34]. - The online music revenue for Q4 2024 was reported at 58.31 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 16% [9][34]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 27,752 million RMB - 2024A: 28,401 million RMB (growth rate: 2.3%) - 2025E: 30,973 million RMB (growth rate: 9.1%) - 2026E: 35,313 million RMB (growth rate: 14.0%) - 2027E: 38,160 million RMB (growth rate: 8.1%) [4] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 5,923 million RMB - 2024A: 7,671 million RMB (growth rate: 29.5%) - 2025E: 8,699 million RMB (growth rate: 13.4%) - 2026E: 10,359 million RMB (growth rate: 19.1%) - 2027E: 11,645 million RMB (growth rate: 12.4%) [4] - **EPS and Valuation Ratios**: - EPS for 2025E is projected at 5.58 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 21.60 [4]. - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in gross margin, reaching 45.1% and 47.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [35]. Business Segment Performance - **Online Music Business**: - Expected to generate revenues of 252.31 billion RMB and 298.59 billion RMB in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 16% and 18% [34]. - The net profit margin for the online music segment is projected to be 27% and 29% for 2025 and 2026 [36]. - **Social Entertainment Business**: - Revenue is expected to decline, with projections of 57.42 billion RMB and 54.55 billion RMB for 2025 and 2026, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 14% and 5% [34][36]. Valuation Analysis - The fair value of Tencent Music is calculated at $16.36 per ADS, based on a segmented valuation approach [40]. - The online music business is valued at 28x P/E, while the social entertainment business is valued at 9x P/E [41].

证券研究报告 [Table_Page] 年报点评|计算机 [Table_Title] 金山办公（688111.SH） AI 赋能下，个人业务稳健增长，WPS 365 开启增长新引擎 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4556 | 5121 | 5962 | 7332 | 8715 | | 增长率（ % ） | 17.3% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 23.0% | 18.9% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1216 | 1496 | 2065 | 2430 | 2816 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1318 | 1645 | 1792 | 2128 | 2546 | | 增长率（ % ） | 17.9% | 24.8% | 9.0% | 18.7% | 19.6% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.86 | 3.56 | ...

[Table_Page] 年报点评|计算机 AI 赋能下，个人业务稳健增长，WPS 365 开启增长新引擎 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入（百万元） | 4556 | 5121 | 5962 | 7332 | 8715 | | 增长率（ % ） | 17.3% | 12.4% | 16.4% | 23.0% | 18.9% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1216 | 1496 | 2065 | 2430 | 2816 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 1318 | 1645 | 1792 | 2128 | 2546 | | 增长率（ % ） | 17.9% | 24.8% | 9.0% | 18.7% | 19.6% | | EPS（元/股） | 2.86 | 3.56 | 3.87 | 4.60 | 5.50 | | 市盈率（P/E） | 11 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 3 月 20 日 证券研究报告 美联储减缓 QT，美股有所反弹 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 在美联储 2025 年 3 月议息会议中1，FOMC 官员一致投票保持联邦基金利率目标区间在 4.25-4.5%，这是自 2024 年 9 月启动降息后第二次暂停。同时，美联储表示将进一步放缓资产负债表缩减节奏。值得注意的是，美联储内 部对利率决策意见一致，但对控通胀缺乏进展背景下放缓缩表意见并不一致，美联储理事沃勒就对减缓 QT 表示 反对。 2022 年 3 月、5 月、6 月、7 月、9 月、11 月、12 月以及 2023 年 2 ...

[Table_Page] 公司深度研究|环保 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 军信股份（301109.SZ） 垃圾焚烧+IDC 协同先行者，期待项目复制 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | 盈利预测： | | --- | | [Table_Finance] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1571 | 1857 | 2455 | 3285 | 3484 | | 增长率（ % ） | -24.4% | 18.3% | 32.2% | 33.8% | 6.1% | | EBITDA（百万元） | 1008 | 1062 | 1190 | 1650 | 1761 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 466 | 514 | 540 | 762 | 834 | | 增长率（ % ） | 4.4% | 10.2% | 5.1% | 41.0% | 9.6% | | EPS（元/股） | 1.24 | 1.25 | 1.05 | 1.35 | 1.4 ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略月报|煤炭开采 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 煤炭行业月报（2025 年 1-2 月） [Table_Grade] 行业评级 买入 前次评级 买入 报告日期 2025-03-20 ⚫ 煤炭板块回顾：前 2 月煤炭板块高位回落，年初以来跑输大盘 11.8pct。 根据 Wind 数据，前 2 月上证综指下跌 0.9%，沪深 300 下跌 1.1%， 煤炭（中信）板块下跌 13.5%。截至 3 月 18 日，煤炭板块累计下跌 10.0%，跑输沪深 300 指数 11.8pct，排名中信各行业指数 30/30。目 前煤炭板块市盈率、市净率处于历史中等位置，其中市盈率仅高于银 行、建筑和石油石化板块。 ⚫ 煤炭市场回顾：前 2 月用电量增速降至 1.3%，非电需求整体改善，煤 炭进口量增速降至 1.8%。（1）国内煤价：年初以来，动力煤和炼焦煤 价均偏弱势，3 月以来价格企稳；（2）国际煤价：年初以来，澳洲煤价 下跌 10-20%，其中高卡动力煤跌幅较大；（3）国内需求：前 2 月用电 量和火电发电量增速显著回落，非电行业中钢铁和水泥降幅收窄，化工 需求稳步增长；（4）国 ...