Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The insurance sector is expected to see a double-digit growth in asset scale by 2025, with a significant increase in equity allocation compared to the previous year [7] - The investment assets of insurance companies reached 38.5 trillion CNY by the end of Q4 2025, marking a 15.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with life insurance and property insurance companies holding 34.7 trillion CNY and 2.4 trillion CNY respectively [7] - The proportion of equity assets in insurance funds has notably increased, with stocks and funds accounting for 23% of total investments by Q4 2025, indicating room for further enhancement in equity allocation [7] Summary by Sections Investment Scale and Allocation - By the end of Q4 2025, the investment balance of insurance companies reached 38.5 trillion CNY, a 15.7% increase year-on-year, with life insurance companies accounting for 90.1% of the total [7] - The bond allocation remained stable, while the proportion of stocks and funds increased significantly, with life and property insurance companies showing respective stock and fund allocations of 15.3% and 17.1% by Q4 2025 [7] Market Performance and Trends - The insurance sector's investment assets have shown continuous double-digit growth, driven by strong demand on the liability side and an upward trend in the equity market [7] - The overall solvency ratio of the insurance industry was 181% by Q4 2025, indicating a healthy capital position and potential for increased equity investments [7] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the insurance sector, particularly on stocks such as China Ping An, China Life, China Taiping, and AIA Insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved equity elasticity and favorable market conditions [7]

Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the non-bank financial sector, driven by favorable policies and continued capital inflow, suggesting potential for sector rebound [1][6]. - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the sector, indicating expected strong performance relative to the market [2]. Market Performance - As of February 14, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.41%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.39%. The CSI 300 Index saw a modest gain of 0.36% [12]. - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.11 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.3% decrease week-on-week [6]. Industry Dynamics and Weekly Commentary Insurance Sector - The report indicates that listed insurance companies are expected to maintain high growth, with a marginal improvement in long-term interest margins. The insurance fund utilization scale reached 38.5 trillion yuan in Q4 2025, up 15.7% year-on-year [18]. - The report suggests that the upcoming spring market rally may drive better-than-expected performance for insurance companies in Q1 2026, supported by a stable long-term interest rate and an upward trend in the equity market [18]. Securities Sector - The report discusses the recent optimization measures for refinancing announced by the three major exchanges, which aim to enhance financing efficiency and support high-quality enterprises [19]. - The new refinancing rules are expected to create structural opportunities for securities firms, shifting the focus from compliance to the ability to identify and serve quality clients [20]. - The report emphasizes that the optimization of refinancing will lead to a more differentiated regulatory system, benefiting quality companies while tightening controls on weaker entities [22]. Key Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed valuations for several key companies in the sector, including: - China Ping An (601318.SH) with a target price of 85.17 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - New China Life (601336.SH) with a target price of 94.21 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - China Life (601628.SH) with a target price of 55.47 yuan and a "Buy" rating [7]. - The report also highlights the expected earnings per share (EPS) growth for these companies, indicating a positive outlook for their financial performance in 2025 and 2026 [7].

Group 1 - Industry investment rating: Buy [2] - Core viewpoint: The humanoid robot industry has made significant advancements, as showcased during the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, highlighting the capabilities of domestic manufacturers in various applications [6][6][6] - Investment suggestion: The humanoid robot sector is well-prepared for mass production, with expected exponential growth in product delivery in 2026 compared to 2025 [6] Group 2 - Key company performance: The Spring Festival Gala led to a 150% increase in robot orders, with a surge in search volume and customer inquiries [6] - Notable company showcases: Multiple companies demonstrated their robots' capabilities, including 松延动力's elderly care applications, 宇树科技's high-dynamic control, and 魔法原子’s group control of 100 robots [6] - Recommended companies for investment: Focus on 恒立液压, 浙江荣泰, and others for specific components like planetary roller screws and dexterous motors [6]

Group 1 - The report indicates that non-US assets have continued to exhibit a bullish atmosphere during the holiday period, with risk assets strengthening and stock indices in Europe, East Asia, and South America reaching historical highs [3][4][9] - The performance of overseas risk assets suggests that global liquidity remains abundant, with funds flowing into economies and stock markets expected to show marginal changes, making Chinese stocks attractive to global investors [3][9] - The report maintains the view from the previous report that a new upward cycle is anticipated, encouraging investors to regain confidence and prepare for the first wave of the market's rise in the Year of the Horse [3][53] Group 2 - The report highlights that during the 2026 Spring Festival, major stock indices such as the KOSPI in South Korea and the STOXX 600 in Europe reached new highs, with the KOSPI leading with a 5.48% increase [4][8] - Commodity markets showed a broad upward trend, with NYMEX crude oil surging by 5.94% and COMEX silver rising by 8.63%, indicating strong demand in these sectors [4][8] - The report notes that European corporate earnings have exceeded expectations, with the STOXX 600 index's price-to-earnings ratio at 18.3, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 27.7, suggesting a valuation advantage for European stocks [5][8] Group 3 - The report discusses the AI industry, noting that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is driven by the need for massive computing power in generative AI and large model training, with Samsung and SK Hynix dominating the global HBM market [9][48] - The report mentions that the performance of the AI sector is expected to continue to improve, with significant revenue projections for companies involved in AI, such as OpenAI, which anticipates over $280 billion in revenue by 2030 [49][51] - The report highlights the advancements in AI models and the competitive landscape, with major companies like Google and Anthropic releasing new models that enhance capabilities in various sectors [48][49]

1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 美国 1 月通胀相对温和 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 14 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 1 月美国 CPI 数据显示，通胀整体仍具韧性+放缓。CPI 同比增 2.4% ，低于预期的 2.5%，前值+2.7%；环比 +0.2%，低于预期和前值的+0.3%。核心 CPI 同比增 2.5%，符合预期，前值 2.6%；核心 CPI 环比+0.3%，符 合预期，高于前值的 0.2%。 能源价格增速显著回落，环比-1.5%，其中，汽油（-3.2%）和燃油（-5.7%）价格回落为主要背景。 食品价格环比为+0.2%，前值为 0.7%。其中，家庭食品（food at home）和餐馆用餐价格增速均显著回落，环 比分别为+0.2%和 0.1%，前值分别为 0.6%和 0.7%。 1 月核心商品环比为 0%，持平于前值，核心服务价格有所回弹，环比从 0.3%回升至 0.4%。 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-3800357 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The overall social financing growth slightly declined to 8.2% in January, while M1 and M2 growth rates significantly rebounded, with M1 growing by 4.9% and M2 by 9.0% [6][16] - Government net financing increased significantly by 2,831 billion yuan year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth [6][17] - The report indicates a shift in deposit structure due to accelerated deposit migration, impacting M1 negatively while having limited effect on M2 [6][16] Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth decreased slightly to 8.2%, while M1 and M2 growth rates increased significantly [15][16] - M1 and M2 growth rates rose by 1.1 percentage points and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [6][16] Government Sector - Fiscal strength showed a year-on-year decline, impacting overall financing dynamics [39] Household Sector - Demand remained stable year-on-year, with short-term loan demand increasing [39] Corporate Sector - Short-term loan demand increased year-on-year, while bill financing saw a significant reduction [39] Non-Bank Sector - The acceleration of deposit migration was noted, with non-bank deposits increasing by 1.45 trillion yuan year-on-year [6][39]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the current market is likely to experience a divergence in expectations, moving from a long-term bullish sentiment to a more uncertain and volatile environment, making interest rate strategies more favorable [1] - The primary risk associated with interest rate strategies is default risk, which has evolved over time, particularly in the context of credit bonds [1] Group 1: Credit Bond Default Risk Reassessment - Historical default rates show that private enterprises have a higher proportion of defaults, particularly in the real estate sector, while state-owned enterprises and banks have experienced occasional unexpected risks [11] - The current landscape of industrial bonds is dominated by state-owned enterprises, with a low probability of events similar to "Yong Coal," indicating that risk industries have reached a bottom [12] - The preference for holdings in public bond funds is shifting towards state-owned enterprises, counter-cyclical industries, quality regions, and leading institutions, reflecting a low exposure to risk [12] Group 2: Market Volatility and Interest Rate Strategies - The report outlines two main strategies for navigating the anticipated market volatility in 2026: - Strategy One focuses on credit downshifting and long-duration bonds with yields above 2.5%, targeting stable liabilities and absolute returns, particularly in city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds [2] - Strategy Two emphasizes high liquidity and low volatility bonds with yields above 2.0%, aimed at defensive allocations in strong regions and leading enterprises [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the lack of sufficient negative factors, combined with a weak economic recovery and unchanged monetary policy, suggests that the market will likely remain in a state of fluctuation [2] - The report highlights that while there is some room for interest rate cuts, the timing will depend on the verification of increasing economic recovery pressures [2] - The bond market is currently constrained within a range, leading to a higher probability of volatility [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the amplitude of the 10-year Treasury bond has narrowed, showing a typical wedge-shaped consolidation pattern. The 30-year Treasury bond started a downward trend in July 2025 and has experienced short-term shock repairs since early 2026. Both are approaching a turning point [3]. - The trading logic of the 30-year Treasury bond futures (TL) may have changed, and it may have entered a medium - to long - term downward channel. The rebound since January 2026 is likely a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. It is recommended to short at high levels in the resistance range of 113 - 113.5 [3][21]. - The 10-year Treasury bond futures (T) are in a wedge-shaped consolidation pattern, which is likely a trend continuation adjustment. After the consolidation, the price is more likely to continue the previous upward trend. The end time of the wedge-shaped consolidation is expected to be around April [3][42]. Summary by Directory I. Technical Analysis: The Key to Analyzing Long - Term Interest Rates - Technical analysis is effective in analyzing the 30-year Treasury bond because it is a speculative product, and its price is driven by risk preference and policy expectations. Technical analysis can capture market trends, quantify risk preferences, and verify policy expectations [9]. - For speculative products, price and trend in technical analysis are important signals. Technical indicators can show overbought/oversold conditions and divergence signals. In policy expectation games, technical analysis can confirm market expectations and reflect narrative changes [9][10]. II. Treasury Bond Futures: A More Ideal Carrier for Technical Analysis - Treasury bond futures, especially the 10-year and 30-year main contracts, are more effective for technical analysis than spot bonds due to their standardization, high liquidity, and transparent and centralized trading characteristics, which can more purely and sensitively reflect market sentiment [11]. - Compared with spot bonds, Treasury bond futures have advantages in liquidity, price continuity, leverage and speculative attributes, and information reaction efficiency. Their price trends are more continuous and can lead spot bonds [13]. III. 30 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (TL): The Long - Term Trading Logic May Have Changed (1) Trend Positioning: The "Double Top" Pattern is Established, and It May Enter a Medium - to Long - Term Downward Channel - Technically, the TL contract broke through the key support level in December 2025, forming a "double top" pattern and entering a long - term downward channel. The improvement of macro - expectations and the strengthening of confidence in the equity bull market may be the underlying factors driving the decline [22]. - In the short - to medium - term, the rebound since January 2026 is difficult to reverse the long - term downward trend. The rebound momentum is weakening, and the suppression of risk preference continues, so the current rebound is likely a technical repair [24][26]. (2) Short - Term Trend: Approaching the Time to Short at High Levels - The 30 - year Treasury bond has a high odds ratio. The 30 - 10 - year Treasury bond spread is at a high level, and there is still room for compression in the old - new bond spread [29]. - The resistance range of 113 - 113.5 is expected. If the upward trend continues, the increase may be 0.1% - 0.6%. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures may reach the top around the Two Sessions in early March [34][38]. IV. 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures (T): Pay Attention to the End Time of the Wedge - Shaped Consolidation Pattern (1) Long - Term in a Triangular Convergence Channel - Since 2025, the T contract has been in a wedge - shaped consolidation pattern, showing a symmetrical triangular convergence. The price fluctuation range has narrowed, and the trading volume has decreased. The balance of long - and short - term forces is waiting for a directional breakthrough [43]. - The "strong expectation + weak reality" situation and the guidance of the reasonable range have led to the long - and short - term tug - of war in the 10 - year Treasury bond, forming a long - term oscillatory pattern. An incremental signal is needed for a breakthrough [43]. (2) Directional Choice is Approaching - The end time of the wedge - shaped consolidation may be around April. Without an incremental signal, it is unlikely to break through the shock pattern in the current wave band. If the current market situation is extrapolated, the end time may be from late March to early April or the end of April [44]. - After the end of the wedge - shaped consolidation, the price is more likely to continue the previous upward trend because the current wedge - shaped pattern is similar to a symmetrical triangle, which is a typical trend continuation pattern [47].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of $102.38 and a fair value of $127.17 [5]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that Disney has built a robust business model through a combination of content production, diverse distribution channels, and offline experiences, creating a closed-loop commercial ecosystem [7]. - Disney's strategy has shifted from focusing solely on growth to enhancing quality and profitability, particularly in its D2C (Direct-to-Consumer) segment, which has seen significant investment despite lower profit margins compared to traditional television [7]. - The experience business, including theme parks and cruise lines, is highlighted as a unique competitive advantage, contributing significantly to revenue and operating profit [7]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach $102.1 billion in fiscal year 2026, with a growth rate of 8%, and $107.3 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a growth rate of 5% [4]. - Net income is expected to be $10.7 billion in fiscal year 2026, reflecting a -14% change, and $11.9 billion in fiscal year 2027, with a 10% increase [4]. - The report anticipates an EPS of $5.95 for fiscal year 2026 and $6.57 for fiscal year 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17x and 15x [4]. Business Segments - Disney's primary business segments include entertainment (cable networks, D2C streaming, and content production), sports (primarily ESPN), and experiences (theme parks, resorts, and cruise lines) [26][28]. - The entertainment segment remains the largest revenue contributor, while the experience segment is crucial for profit, achieving a profit margin of 28% compared to 11% for entertainment and 16% for sports [28]. Historical Context - Disney's evolution is marked by three key phases: the early animation and theme park development, the revival under Michael Eisner with a focus on animation and cable television, and the recent era of acquisitions and streaming service expansion under Bob Iger [18][22][23]. - The company has successfully integrated acquisitions like Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, enhancing its IP portfolio and overall market position [23][43].