Group 1: Employment Data Overview - The U.S. Labor Department released combined non-farm employment data for October and November, with November showing an increase of 64,000 jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000[5]. - October saw a decrease of 105,000 jobs, primarily due to a reduction of 162,000 jobs in the federal government sector[6]. - Private sector employment increased by 69,000 in November and 52,000 in October, with a three-month moving average of 75,000[6]. Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate rose from 4.44% in October to 4.56% in November, marking the highest level since September 2021[7]. - The labor force participation rate increased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%[7]. - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16-19 rose significantly from 13.2% to 16.3%, indicating challenges for young job seekers[8]. Group 3: Wage and Hour Trends - Average hourly wages increased by 3.75% year-over-year in October and 3.51% in November, with month-over-month increases of 0.44% and 0.14%, respectively[9]. - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.37% in October and 4.34% in November, reflecting overall labor income trends[12]. - Weekly hours worked averaged 34.2 hours in October and 34.3 hours in November, indicating a slight increase in overtime trends[12]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The data suggests a mixed employment landscape, with structural demand in healthcare and social services, while public sector and manufacturing remain weak[7]. - The JOLTS job openings rose to 7.67 million in October, indicating resilient job demand despite rising unemployment[14]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March 2026 increased to 62.7% from 42.4% following the employment data release[15].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 17 日 证券研究报告 如何理解一并公布的 10 月和 11 月非农数据 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 美国劳工部 12 月 16 日公布非农就业数据1。由于此前的政府停摆，本次非农数据属于 10 月和 11 月一并发布。 但住户调查（Household Survey）数据（包括失业率等）将缺失 10 月数据，且不会再补采。 美国劳工部在 12 月 16 日集中公布 10 月与 11 月的就业数据，其中包括 11 月的住户调查（Household Survey） 结果（如失业率、劳动参与率等），但由于此前政府停摆，10 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the transportation sector is facing significant profit impacts in 2025, with a general decline in ROE and net profit year-on-year. The market is currently pricing in a disconnection between stock prices and 2025 performance trends, highlighting a situation where profit and stock price bottoms are evident, but valuations appear high [3]. Transportation Sector Analysis - The report suggests that in 2026, the focus should be on identifying alpha within beta stocks, as different sub-industries will experience varying recovery paces. Key investment strategies include: 1. Domestic demand recovery is expected to precede external demand, with a low base in 2026 being a significant factor [3]. 2. Upstream sectors are anticipated to recover before downstream sectors, with initial signs of price and inventory recovery in Q3 2025 [3]. 3. Price increases are expected to precede volume growth, with supply constraints influencing the cyclical recovery across different sectors [3]. Macro Economic Outlook - The report provides a macroeconomic outlook for 2026, indicating that while U.S. broad market indices are relatively expensive, they are not at extreme levels. The Chinese stock market has potential for nominal growth recovery, which could lead to a re-evaluation of A-share valuations [3]. - The report also highlights that the current market breadth is healthy, suggesting a broad-based potential for upward movement in indices such as the S&P 500 and the CSI 300 [3].

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 黄金：不确定性时代的确定性资产 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 近期黄金走势：8 月以来伦敦金现货最高冲破 4380 美元/盎司，衍生品 净多头+ETF 天量流入是本轮行情的主要驱动因素。金价 10 月深度回 调后反弹，短期市场情绪已经回暖：（1）衍生品净多头+ETF 流入格局 不变；（2）黄金期权隐含波动率已从前期高位回落至近 6 个月均值附 近，超涨压力基本释放；（3）地缘政治格局呈现"局部缓和与多点升温 交织"特征，避险情绪小幅升温。 ⚫ 黄金价格回调但仍长期看多黄金的三大原因： 1. 宏观叙事：债务危机或将重塑全球秩序。疫情以来，美国的债务和基 础财政赤字持续扩张，联邦政府债务水平升至历史最高，且持有者更加 分散。美国双赤字的扩大迫使其向外转嫁危机，近年全球经济政策不确 定性和地缘政治风险明显抬头。若债务问题未解决，黄金和科技在中长 期将持续获得上涨动力。 2. 基本面：实际利率下降将边际支撑金价。2022 年后真实利率和金价 的负相关性有所弱化，但并非消失 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 证券研究报告 快慢变量分野，新老资产收敛：2026 年大类资产展望 | [Table_Title] [Tabl e_Author 分析师：] | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 陈礼清 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523080003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003809 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | chenliqing@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，陈礼清并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 12025 年大类资产在"叙事抱团"下，呈现新老资产极致分化。全年来看，黄金领涨大类资产，位于风险收益 比顶端。全球股强债弱，股市新兴强于发达。商品中有色亮眼，显著领跑黑色与原油。从资产轮动来看，上 半年反复反转 ...

[Table_Page] 金融工程|定期报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 深度学习因子胜率稳定 Alpha 因子跟踪周报（2025.12.12） [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 广发金工 Alpha 因子数据库。本数据库基于 mysql8.0 建立，整体框架 如右图 1 所示，覆盖广发金工团队十余年研发经验深厚积累的基本面 因子、Level-1 中高频因子、Level-2 高频因子、机器学习因子、另类 数据因子等，为多空策略、指数增强、ETF 轮动、资产配置、衍生品 等策略提供可靠且有效的因子库支持。 广发金工团队自有 100TB 级存储数据库、高性能 CPU/GPU 算力服务 器，拥有 Wind、天软、通联等多个可靠的数据供应商，实现因子高效 研发和动态更新。 图 1：广发金工 Alpha 因子数据库 数据来源：广发证券发展研究中心 | [分析师： Table_Author]安宁宁 | | --- | | SAC 执证号：S0260512020003 | | SFC CE No. BNW179 | | 0755-23948352 | | ann ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating to the company, with a current price of CNY 67.08 and HKD 65.25, and a reasonable value of CNY 85.17 and HKD 84.23 [4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a pioneer in the "transformational era" and a leader in "asset-liability linkage," with significant growth potential in the bancassurance channel, which is expected to drive value growth [8][10]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in the bancassurance channel, with a new business value (NBV) compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.6% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing the overall market [21][22]. - The company's investment strategy focuses on high dividend yields and stable long-term returns, with a net investment return rate superior to its peers [8][10]. Summary by Sections Liability Side: "Pioneer of the Transformational Era" - The company has consistently led changes in the liability side of the insurance industry, achieving a new business premium CAGR of 7.5% from 2010 to 2024, outperforming peers [15]. - The bancassurance channel is expected to become a core growth driver, with significant room for expansion as the company currently holds the lowest market share among peers in this segment [21][22]. Asset Side: "Leader in Asset Management" - The company has strategically increased its bond allocation since 2018, ensuring a good match between assets and liabilities [8][10]. - The focus on high dividend strategies has resulted in a net investment return rate that is among the highest in the industry, with an average dividend return rate of 5.8% over the past three years [8][10]. Operational Quality: Real Estate Exposure and Sector Performance - The company's real estate exposure has been reduced to 3.3% of its insurance funds, with sufficient provisions for asset impairments [8][10]. - The profitability of both life and property insurance segments is on the rise, supported by improved performance in asset management and technology sectors [8][10]. Valuation: Dividend Yield and Market Position - The company offers a favorable dividend yield, with stable operational profit growth and high dividends, while its current valuation is lower than that of its peers [8][10]. - The report notes that public fund holdings in the company are significantly lower than the benchmark index, indicating potential for reallocation [8][10]. Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of CNY 8.91, CNY 9.85, and CNY 10.55 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a reasonable valuation based on the embedded value method [8][10].

[Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 中电联口径截至 12 月 11 日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比-8.2%（11 月同比-7.2%）。 中电联指出"电力及非电需求延续疲软行情"，"从产量来看，整体稳定，局部微调，整体维持在历史同期偏高 水平"。 1根据中电联电力行业燃料统计，截至12月11日，纳入统计的发电集团燃煤电厂本月累计发电量同比下降8.2%， 本年累计发电量同比下降 3.9%。燃煤电厂本月累计供热量同比增长 0.8%，本年累计供热量同比增长 5.8%。燃 煤电厂耗煤量本月累计同比下降 7.3%，本年累计同比下降 4.6%。燃煤电厂煤炭库存低于去年同期 107 万吨， 库存可用天数高于上年同期 2.1 天。 另据 Wind 数据（若未特别注明，报告数据均来自 Wind）：截至 12 月第二周，三峡水库站（入库）流量均值 同比-9.2%（前值 48.0%），历史上三峡水电站流量与全国水力发电同比存在高相关性。 工业开工率涨跌互现，上游钢铁高炉开工率同比低于前值，下游江浙织机开工率同比高于前值。截至 12 月第 二周，全国 247 家高炉开工率（月均值，下同）同比回落 0.7pc ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 5.87 CNY and a reasonable value of 7.27 CNY for A-shares, and 4.18 HKD with a reasonable value of 4.88 HKD for H-shares [6]. Core Views - The company will significantly improve its cash flow by recovering 2 billion CNY in receivables, as part of a broader initiative to address local government debt risks [6]. - The historical dividend payout ratio is between 30%-40%, with expectations for an increase in future dividends due to improved cash flow from receivables recovery [6]. - The company is projected to achieve positive free cash flow in 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 865 million CNY for 2023, declining to 807 million CNY in 2024, and then increasing to 951 million CNY in 2025 [6][2]. - The report anticipates a continuous increase in gross margin, reaching 39.8% in 2024, driven by a higher proportion of high-margin operational revenue [6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023A: 4,665 million CNY - 2024A: 4,827 million CNY - 2025E: 4,978 million CNY - 2026E: 5,068 million CNY - 2027E: 5,151 million CNY - Growth rates are projected at 3.2% for 2023, 3.5% for 2024, and declining thereafter [2]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023A: 865 million CNY - 2024A: 807 million CNY - 2025E: 951 million CNY - 2026E: 1,001 million CNY - 2027E: 1,041 million CNY - Notable growth of 15.2% in 2023, followed by a decline in 2024, and a rebound in subsequent years [2]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.55 CNY - 2024A: 0.51 CNY - 2025E: 0.61 CNY - 2026E: 0.64 CNY - 2027E: 0.66 CNY [2]. - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 10.1 in 2023 to 8.9 in 2027 for A-shares, and from 6.3 to 4.1 for H-shares over the same period [2].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Views - The industry is experiencing a robust supply and demand growth, with November data showing a year-on-year increase in both supply and demand. The passenger load factor has improved, particularly in domestic routes, which have seen a significant increase compared to 2019 levels. In November, the total supply and demand for six listed airlines increased by 7.1% and 10.3% year-on-year, respectively, reaching 110.4% and 116.7% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019. The passenger load factor rose by 2.5 percentage points to 85.6%, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than in November 2019 [6][6][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - In November, domestic routes saw supply and demand increase by 4.2% and 6.8% year-on-year, respectively, achieving 113.3% and 118.2% of the levels from 2019. The passenger load factor for domestic routes improved by 2.1 percentage points to 86.6%, which is 3.6 percentage points higher than in 2019. International routes experienced a more significant increase, with supply and demand rising by 15.0% and 20.7% year-on-year, reaching 104.8% and 113.5% of 2019 levels. The passenger load factor for international routes increased by 3.9 percentage points to 83.4%, which is 6.4 percentage points higher than in 2019 [6][6]. Airline Performance - Performance among airlines varied, with Spring Airlines and Eastern Airlines leading in passenger load factors. In November, the three major airlines reported a year-on-year increase in supply and demand of 6.7% and 10.3%, respectively, continuing their recovery trend. Domestic routes for these airlines have returned to 111.6% and 116.6% of 2019 levels. Eastern Airlines had the highest passenger load factor, increasing by 3.0 percentage points to 87.4%, while China National Airlines showed the fastest recovery, with a 3.9 percentage point increase to 83.3% [6][6]. External Factors - External events continue to disrupt demand, particularly on the China-Japan route, which is experiencing short-term weakness. However, the long-term recovery trend for international routes remains intact. Recent policy changes have extended the free cancellation and modification policy for flights on this route until March 28, 2026. Despite the current challenges, the demand for international flights is expected to recover in the medium to long term, supported by resilient ticket prices [6][6].