[Table_Page] 固定收益|专题报告 2026 年 2 月 12 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 全球固收量化：四大流派&五大局限 未来已来系列之一 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [分析师： Table_Author]杜渐 | | | --- | --- | | | SAC 执证号：S0260526020003 | | 010-59136690 | | | | dujian@gf.com.cn | | 分析师： | 吴棋滢 | | | SAC 执证号：S0260519080003 | | | SFC CE No. BQN213 | | 021-38003588 | | | | wuqiying@gf.com.cn | 请注意，杜渐并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 972918116公共联系人2026-02-12 20:06:58 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 中国人如何理财：存款搬家研 究框架:A 股资金面框架（一） 2025-10-14 识别风险，发现价值 请务必阅读末页的免责声明 1 / 17 [Tabl ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the electricity market is entering a golden decade, breaking down barriers and releasing development vitality [1] - The recent issuance of the "Implementation Opinions on Improving the National Unified Electricity Market System" by the State Council highlights the acceleration of market and pricing mechanisms suitable for the new energy system [5] - The report outlines a goal to fully establish a national unified electricity market system by 2035, with a steady increase in the proportion of market-based electricity transactions [5] - It identifies the construction of a multi-dimensional market system, including long-term markets, spot markets, auxiliary service markets, green electricity markets, and capacity markets, with a focus on the spot market [5] - The report suggests that by 2030, all types of power sources and electricity users, except for guaranteed users, will directly participate in the electricity market, with market-based transactions accounting for about 70% of total electricity consumption [5] - Investment recommendations include focusing on software companies like Guoneng Rixin and Langxin Technology, hardware companies benefiting from market volatility such as Sunshine Power and Haibosi Chuang, and supporting companies like Guodian Nanrui and State Grid Xintong for grid operation control and digital systems [5] Summary by Sections - **Policy and Market Structure**: The report discusses the high-level issuance of the recent policy, the introduction of a 2035 target, and the clear direction for market composition and reform [5] - **Market Participation**: It emphasizes the importance of nationwide unification and smooth circulation in electricity trading, with a shift from individual pricing to unified pricing and joint trading [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report highlights potential beneficiaries in the new energy storage sector and suggests various companies across software, hardware, and supporting sectors for investment [5][6]

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 12 日 证券研究报告 美国 1 月就业数据公布之后 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 陈嘉荔 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260523120005 021-38003572 021-38003674 guolei@gf.com.cn gfchenjiali@gf.com.cn 请注意，陈嘉荔并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 根据美国劳工部 2 月 11 日公布数据1，1 月新增非农 13 万人，高于预期的 7 万人，前值 4.8 万人，且显著高于 达拉斯联储2估算的 3 万人/月就业平衡水平（即每个月使劳动力市场保持平衡的新增岗位数量）。私人部门新 增就业 17.2 万人，高于预期的 7.5 万人，前值 6.4 万人。从趋势上看，新增就业和私人部门新增就业人数 3 个 月平均值均显著回弹。就业扩散指数从 54.2%小幅回升至 55%，显示就业增长的行业覆盖面有 ...

Group 1: Industry Insights - The two-dimensional game market is expected to see a revival, as evidenced by the successful launch of "Arknights: Endfield," which generated over 1.2 billion CNY in revenue within two weeks globally. In the domestic market, PC revenue accounted for nearly 60%, while in overseas markets, PC and PS platforms combined for 70%, indicating significant demand in the global two-dimensional market [3] - The building materials sector is projected to continue its downward trend from 2021 to 2024, with a potential bottoming out in 2024-2025, followed by a recovery in 2026. The construction materials industry has experienced a lesser decline in volume compared to real estate, with a cumulative drop of 70% in new construction, 51% in sales, and 40% in completed areas from 2021 to 2025. Cement and glass production saw declines of 28% and 4%, respectively [3] - Price declines in the building materials sector have accompanied volume drops, but a stabilization in prices is expected in 2024 as supply improves. Companies like Sanke Tree are anticipated to see performance turning points in 2025, with more leading companies expected to follow suit in 2026 as volume and price expectations improve [3] Group 2: Statistical Data - From 2021 to 2025, the cumulative decline in production for various building materials includes plastic pipes (4%), gypsum boards (15%), architectural coatings (19%), sanitary ceramics (19%), tiles (28%), and waterproof materials (38%) [3] - The report highlights that the building materials sector has already passed its most challenging phase and is awaiting the final wave of volume impact, suggesting a potential for recovery in the near future [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 208.73 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 180.30 CNY [3]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 420 million to 450 million CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.06% to 21.13%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between -250 million to -220 million CNY [7]. - In Q4 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 190 million to 220 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20.4% to 38.9%, significantly higher than the 7.4% growth rate in the first three quarters of 2025 [9]. - The demand for the company's AI foundational software products, such as TDH and Sophon LLMOps, is robust, reflecting a strong market need for digital transformation solutions [9]. - The company is actively investing in the research and development of new AI database technologies, which are expected to enhance its competitiveness in the AI foundational software sector [9]. - The ArgoDB joint solution, based on Haiguang Information's CPU, has been successfully implemented in key industries such as finance, energy, and government, indicating strong market acceptance [9]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 440 million, 500 million, and 580 million CNY, respectively, with growth rates of 17.3%, 15.8%, and 14.8% [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to improve from -240 million CNY in 2025 to -70 million CNY in 2027, with corresponding EPS estimates of -1.99 CNY, -0.87 CNY, and -0.58 CNY [10]. - The company is compared to peers such as MongoDB, Snowflake, and Elastic, with a premium valuation due to the scarcity of A-share big data companies and the promising future of AI software tools [15][14].

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 2 月 11 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 通胀上行加快 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 通胀上行加快。1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，连续第二个月环比正增长；其中核心 CPI（不包含食品和能源）环比为 0.3%，属 6 个月以来最高，高于春节分布相近的 2015、2018 年 1 月。1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，属于 2022 年 5 月 以来高点。 据万得数据（下同），1 月 CPI 环比 0.2%，持平前值。 1 月核心 CPI 环比 0.3%，高于前值的 0.2%，持平于 2023 年 1 月的 0.4%，属于 2025 年 8 月以来最高。春节 分布相近的 2015 年、2018 年，核心 CPI 环比均为 0.2%。 1 月 PPI 环比 0.4%，持平于 2023 年 9 月，属 2022 年 5 月以来高 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The central bank plans to lower the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points throughout 2025, with the 7-day reverse repurchase rate reduced from 1.5% to 1.4% in May 2025, aiming to decrease overall financing costs[3] - Short-term market interest rates are expected to operate within a range of 20 basis points below to 50 basis points above the policy rate, indicating a more stable operation of the monetary market[3] - The central bank emphasizes the need to guide short-term money market rates to better align with the central bank's policy rates, enhancing the effectiveness of monetary policy[3] Group 2: Financing Costs and Economic Stability - The report highlights the goal of maintaining low comprehensive financing costs for society, indicating that current financing costs are already at a relatively acceptable low level[3] - There is a focus on stabilizing and expanding bank interest margins while ensuring sufficient liquidity for the banking system, suggesting limited probability for significant increases in short-term rates[3] - The central bank aims to improve the interest rate adjustment framework and strengthen the transmission mechanism of market interest rates, ensuring effective financial support for key sectors like domestic demand and innovation[3] Group 3: Exchange Rate Management - The central bank stresses the importance of the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for macroeconomic conditions and international balance of payments, advocating for a managed floating exchange rate system[5] - Emphasis is placed on maintaining exchange rate flexibility to absorb external shocks and provide room for independent domestic monetary policy operations[5] - The report calls for reinforcing expectations management to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming for basic stability of the RMB at a reasonable equilibrium level[5] Group 4: Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in the external environment, misinterpretations of the "deposit migration" issue, and unforeseen fluctuations in the financial market[6] - The report warns of possible underperformance in real estate sales and fixed asset investments, as well as the effects of anti-involution policies not meeting expectations[6]

[Table_Page] 深度分析|通用设备 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 商业航天行业系列六 3D 打印：柔性制造的引擎，重塑火箭价值链 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Grade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-02-11 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]代川 SAC 执证号：S0260517080007 SFC CE No. BOS186 021-38003678 daichuan@gf.com.cn 分析师： 孙柏阳 SAC 执证号：S0260520080002 021-38003680 sunboyang@gf.com.cn 分析师： 蒲明琪 SAC 执证号：S0260524080003 SFC CE No. BUP066 021-38003807 pumingqi@gf.com.cn 请注意，孙柏阳并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注 -14% 2% 17% 33% 48% 64% 02/25 04/25 07/25 09 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of HKD 35.30 and a target value of HKD 44.25 [6]. Core Views - The increase in aluminum prices is expected to enhance the company's profit elasticity. With improved demand for electrolytic aluminum and constrained supply, the upward potential for aluminum prices should not be overlooked. The average price of Shanghai aluminum futures for 2025 is projected to be RMB 20,750 per ton, a 4% year-on-year increase [8]. - The company is anticipated to maintain a high dividend payout ratio, with expected cash dividend ratios of 49%, 48%, and 64% for the years 2022-2024. Assuming a price of RMB 23,000 for aluminum in 2026, the company's net profit could reach RMB 32.74 billion, leading to a dividend yield of 6.7% [8]. - The forecasted EPS for the company for 2025-2027 is expected to be RMB 2.20, RMB 3.28, and RMB 3.29 per share, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 12 times for 2026 is applied, resulting in a reasonable value of HKD 44.25 per share [8]. Financial Forecasts - The company's main revenue is projected to be RMB 133.62 billion in 2023, increasing to RMB 156.17 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to RMB 151.18 billion in 2025, and then recovering to RMB 159.87 billion in 2026 and 2027 [4][31]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from RMB 26.91 billion in 2023 to RMB 45.64 billion in 2024, before decreasing to RMB 40.85 billion in 2025, and then increasing to RMB 54.92 billion in 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly from RMB 11.46 billion in 2023 to RMB 22.37 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decrease to RMB 21.88 billion in 2025, and then a substantial increase to RMB 32.74 billion in 2026 and RMB 32.84 billion in 2027 [4][31]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow due to the booming global renewable energy sector and the Belt and Road Initiative, which will support long-term demand growth. The automotive sector is increasingly adopting aluminum for lightweighting, while the photovoltaic sector will continue to drive aluminum demand [9][10]. - On the supply side, the growth of electrolytic aluminum production is limited due to energy constraints and existing capacity ceilings in China. The expected growth rate for electrolytic aluminum supply from 2025 to 2027 is around 1% [10][11]. - Overall, the combination of sustained demand growth and limited supply increases the potential for upward price elasticity in aluminum, which is expected to open up profit growth opportunities for electrolytic aluminum companies [11].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The dry bulk shipping market is at the beginning of a new cycle, with supply bottoming out and demand showing signs of recovery. The global order book is at a historical low, and the manufacturing PMI has returned above 50, indicating potential demand growth [8][18]. - Different ship types exhibit varying earnings elasticity. The Capesize vessels show the highest elasticity, with a TCE increase of approximately $1,274 per day for every 100-point rise in the BDI index, while smaller vessels have a more muted response [18][96]. - The report highlights the comparative analysis of listed dry bulk shipping companies in the US and Hong Kong, focusing on TCE elasticity and balance sheet quality [18][79]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Elasticity of Listed Companies - The report emphasizes that despite significant differences in fleet size, average age, and order backlog among listed companies, their stock price movements are highly correlated due to the cyclical nature of the industry [18][19]. Section 2: Company Reviews - **Star Bulk Carriers (SBLK)**: SBLK has a diversified fleet and maintains a low average daily operating cost due to its scale. The company has a strong management team with extensive industry experience [21][22]. - **Himalaya Shipping (HSHP)**: HSHP focuses on large bulk carriers and has a young fleet. It benefits from high operational leverage and low cash break-even points, making it a key player in a rising market [34][39]. - **Genco Shipping (GNK)**: GNK has a low debt ratio and focuses on maintaining stable dividends, even during downturns. The company has shifted its strategy to reduce leverage and improve financial health [43][50]. - **Safe Bulkers (SB)**: SB has a concentrated ownership structure and focuses on fleet renewal, replacing older vessels with more environmentally friendly options. The company has a consistent dividend policy [51][55]. - **Diana Shipping (DSX)**: DSX employs a conservative strategy by locking in long-term charters, which stabilizes earnings and supports a steady dividend policy [62][70]. - **Pacific Shipping (2343.HK)**: This company focuses on smaller vessels and has a stable operational model, although it has lower earnings elasticity compared to its US counterparts [72][79]. Section 3: Horizontal Comparison - The report notes a clear differentiation in fleet composition between US and Hong Kong listed companies, with US firms predominantly operating larger vessels. This structural difference impacts their earnings volatility and potential for excess returns during market fluctuations [79][80].