[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/商业贸易/卖场与超市 证券研究报告 家家悦（603708）公司季报点评 2024 年 11 月 14 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------|----------------| | 股票数据 | | | 11 [ Table_StockInfo 月 14 日收盘价（元） ] | 10.63 | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 7.40-15.08 | | 总股本 / 流通 A 股（百万股） | 638/599 | | 总市值 / 流通市值（百万元） | 6786/6372 | | 相关研究 | | | [Table_ReportInfo] 《 1H24 收入增 3% 净利降 9% | ，内蒙古盈利释 | | 放》 2024.09.21 | | | 《 1Q24 收入增 6% 净利增 7% | ，供应链变革初 | | 显成效》 2024.05.30 | | 市 ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/机械工业/新能源板块 证券研究报告 行业月报 2024 年 11 月 14 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -11.16% -5.25% 0.67% 6.58% 12.50% 18.41% 2023/11 2024/2 2024/5 2024/8 新能源板块 海通综指 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《铜箔行业：至暗时刻已过，涨价曙光初 现》2024.11.11 《无隔膜固态锂电池技术联合发布，小鹏 P7+正式上市》2024.11.11 《《能源法》表决通过，保障新能源消纳， 推动高质量发展》2024.11.09 分析师:赵玥炜 Tel:(021)23219814 Email:zyw13208@haitong.com 证书:S0850520070002 分析师:毛冠锦 Tel:(021)23183821 Email:mgj1 551@haitong.com 证书:S0850523060003 10 月新能源车 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the mechanical industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes a clear policy shift, with domestic demand gradually stabilizing, suggesting that current investments should balance supply-side and demand-side considerations, focusing on two main directions: recovery sectors and emerging sectors [2]. - Key areas of focus include industrial gases, engineering machinery, automation, and new technologies such as humanoid robots and photovoltaic equipment [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Sector Review - The mechanical sector's overall valuation is at the 51.10% percentile historically, with a PE ratio of 36.99x and a PB ratio of 2.35x as of November 8, 2024 [6]. - The overall holding ratio for the mechanical sector is 2.18%, with significant holdings in service robots and 3C equipment [6]. 2. Policy Shift - Continuous fiscal policies are being implemented to support the real estate market and local government debt resolution, with significant increases in local government debt resources [15]. - The report highlights the importance of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and the stabilization of the real estate market [15]. 3. Investment Strategy Recovery Sectors - **Industrial Gases**: The market is expected to see a rebound in both volume and price, with liquid gas prices stabilizing [2]. - **Engineering Machinery**: Domestic sales are showing signs of recovery due to counter-cyclical policies, with excavator sales in September 2024 increasing by 10.8% year-on-year [17]. - **Automation**: Demand is gradually recovering, with a shift in focus towards traditional industries and 3C sectors [25]. Emerging Sectors - **New Technologies**: Focus on humanoid robots, digital printing, and photovoltaic technologies, with recommendations for companies like Honghua Digital and Greentech [3]. - **New Markets**: Emphasis on global competitiveness in industrial products, particularly in oil and gas equipment and high-altitude work platforms [3]. 4. Key Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies within the mechanical sector, highlighting their market positions and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in profitability, with a 69.27% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024, despite a 6.21% decline in revenue [5][6] - The company has effectively reduced costs and improved efficiency, leading to a gross margin increase of 10.35 percentage points in the pharmaceutical intermediates and raw materials segment [5] - The report anticipates revenue growth for the company, projecting revenues of 120.24 billion, 128.25 billion, and 138.36 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 85.93 billion yuan and a net profit of 9.55 billion yuan [5] - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 39.69%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.81 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for the same period was 13.96%, up by 5.25 percentage points year-on-year [6] Business Strategy - The company is focusing on enhancing its integrated supply chain for raw materials and formulations, with new products added to its portfolio [7] - It has successfully improved its research and development capabilities, with a notable increase in the number of approved projects [7] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is 11.73 billion yuan for 2024, with expected growth rates of 69.5%, 17.5%, and 15.4% for the following years [8][11] - The report provides a valuation range for the company, estimating a reasonable value between 15.41 and 19.52 yuan per share based on a P/E ratio of 15-19x for 2025 [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for China Merchants Bank (CMB) [1][3] Core Views - CMB's Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company turned positive, with a year-on-year growth of 0.8% [4] - Asset quality remained stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 0.94%, unchanged from the previous quarter [4] - Net interest margin (NIM) narrowed, with Q3 2024 NIM at 1.92%, up 1bp from the previous quarter [4] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 0.6% [4] - Core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio increased by 1.36 percentage points year-on-year to 14.73% [4] - Provision coverage ratio was 432.15%, down 2.27 percentage points from the previous quarter [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 5.74, 5.92, and 6.16 yuan, respectively [5] - The reasonable value range for CMB is estimated to be 40.48-46.88 yuan, based on DDM and PB-ROE models [5] Industry Comparison - CMB's 2024E PB ratio is 1.00x, higher than the industry average of 0.48x [7] - The average ROE for comparable companies in 2023 was 9.92%, while CMB's ROE was 16.55% [7] Key Financial Metrics - Net interest income for 2024E is projected to be 210.521 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.93% [16] - Loan growth for 2024E is expected to be 3.85%, while deposit growth is projected at 7.00% [16] - The cost-to-income ratio for 2024E is forecasted to be 29.50%, down from 32.96% in 2023 [16]

虞 楠（交运行业首席分析师） SAC号码：S0850512070003 2024年11月14日 《从航空十倍股，我们看到什么？》 证券研究报告 （优于大市，维持） 供需差好转是每轮航空股向上的共性 表： 航空业步入景气周期的历史驱动力 | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | 时间 | 驱动因素 | 行业供需情况 | | 2007 | 市场需求带来客座率持续提高;人民币升值带来 较大汇兑收益 | 供需顺差3.6%,客座率回升 2.3个百分点 | | 2010 | 企业经济企稳回升带来客运需求回暖,世博会举 办;人民币升值带来较大汇兑收益;行业重组整 合改善无序竞争局面 | 供需顺差达4.0%,平均客座率 较2009年提升近5个百分点 | | 2015 | 国际油价大幅下降;出境游爆 ...

[Table_MainInfo]行业研究/有色金属 证券研究报告 行业信息点评 2024 年 11 月 14 日 [Table_AuthorInfo] [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -15.81% -8.02% -0.23% 7.57% 15.36% 23.16% 2023/11 2024/2 2024/5 2024/8 有色金属 海通综指 资料来源：海通证券研究所 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《供应持续收缩，锂价维持强势》 2024.11.10 《剩者为王，印尼镍项目知多少》 2024.11.05 《24Q3 有色金属行业基金持仓分析：能 源金属持仓回升，铜铝持续获增持》 2024.11.05 分析师:陈先龙 Tel:02123219406 Email:cxl15082@haitong.com 证书:S0850522120002 分析师:甘嘉尧 Tel:(021)23185615 Email:gjy11909@haitong.com 证书:S0850520010002 分析师:张恒浩 Tel:(021)231 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 53.161 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 19.70%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders was 415 million yuan, a significant decline of 80.26% year-over-year [4]. - In the third quarter of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 19.571 billion yuan, up 28.71% year-over-year, and a net profit of 274 million yuan, which marked a recovery from losses in the previous quarter [4]. - The semiconductor business showed resilience, with a revenue of 3.832 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 5.86%, and a gross margin of 40.5%, reflecting improvements in profitability [5]. - The product integration segment reported a revenue of 15.730 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-over-year increase of 45.58%, indicating a strong recovery and reduced losses [6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a dual-driven growth model of ODM and semiconductor businesses, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.87, 1.88, and 2.44 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, the company is projected to achieve a total revenue of 61.213 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 5.4%. The net profit is expected to be 1.181 billion yuan, down 19.0% year-over-year [8]. - The gross margin is forecasted to decline to 14.9% in 2024, with a gradual recovery to 17.5% by 2026 [10]. - The company’s net asset return rate is expected to decrease to 2.9% in 2024, with a recovery to 7.1% by 2026 [10]. Market Comparison - The company’s EPS for 2024 is estimated at 0.87 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 50.9, indicating a valuation that is higher than some comparable companies in the sector [9]. - The average P/E ratio for comparable companies is significantly lower, suggesting that the company may be overvalued relative to its peers [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, up 50% year-on-year [5] - In the third quarter of 2024, the company generated a revenue of 630 million yuan, a 16% increase year-on-year, but the net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 50% to 14.19 million yuan [5] - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency and has plans to invest in vocational education and training, aiming to establish a comprehensive talent cultivation system [6] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 210 million yuan, with a net profit margin of 4.8% and a gross margin of 32.2% [5] - The management expense ratio slightly increased, with sales, management, and financial expense ratios at 6.9%, 20.1%, and 2.4% respectively [5] - The company expects revenues of 2.73 billion yuan, 3.31 billion yuan, and 3.98 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 212 million yuan, 270 million yuan, and 333 million yuan [7][10] Valuation and Forecast - The company is projected to have a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25-30 times for 2025, leading to a reasonable value range of 54.75 to 65.70 yuan per share [7] - The estimated revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 23.2%, 21.3%, and 20.4% respectively, with net profit growth rates of 37.9%, 27.4%, and 23.4% [8][10] Market Comparison - The company’s P/E ratio for 2025 is estimated at 28.59, compared to its peers such as New Oriental at 13.60 and Aonli Education at 24.02 [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company has completed the transfer of shares to a state-owned enterprise, which strengthens its long-term development prospects. The new controlling shareholder is the Sichuan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [4][9] - The company has a robust cash flow, with a free cash flow of 400 million in 2023 and cash on hand of 1.8 billion as of September 30, 2024, supporting future dividends [4][9] - The company is a leading convenience supermarket in Sichuan, with a history of expansion and efficiency improvements, currently operating 3,655 stores [4][10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 10,133 million, with a slight year-on-year growth of 1.1%. The projected revenue for 2024 is 10,205 million, reflecting a 0.7% increase [7][27] - The net profit for 2023 was 561 million, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 519 million, indicating a decrease of 7.6% [7][27] - The gross profit margin has remained stable around 29.6% in recent years, with a projected margin of 29.4% for 2024 [7][27] Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a strong market position in Chengdu, with over 90% of its revenue generated from this region. The gross margin in the main urban areas is the highest, ranging from 24% to 26% [5][11] - The company has focused on supply chain enhancements and digital transformation since 2016, leading to a steady increase in its net profit margin to around 4% [5][11] - The company has a history of strategic acquisitions and store openings, with significant expansions occurring from 2015 to 2016, followed by a focus on store optimization and management improvements [16][22] Valuation and Forecast - The projected net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 5.19 billion, 5.53 billion, and 6.01 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -7.6%, 6.6%, and 8.7% [6][22] - The estimated market value range for the company is between 8 billion and 9.3 billion, with a corresponding reasonable value per share between 5.90 and 6.87 yuan [6][22]