[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 最新研究与资讯 2025 年 03 月 12 日 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | 0.34 | 0.76 | -4.71 | | 小盘 200 | 0.45 | 3.57 | 10.70 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 食品指数 | 2.04 | 4.86 | 0.40 | | 农业指数 | 1.67 | 1.52 | 0.95 | | 钢铁指数 | 1.44 | 2.10 | 9.02 | | 旅游服务 | 1.33 | 2.25 | -4.18 | | 纺织服装 | 1.25 | 2.81 | 3.28 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 汽车汽配 | -0.37 | 1.48 | 6.50 | | 信息设备 | -0.08 | 2.25 | 7.82 | | 房地产 | 0.08 | 0.52 | -0.31 | | 交通运输 | 0.13 | -0.11 | -6.06 | ...

[Table_MainInfo] 金融工程研究 证券研究报告 金融工程周报 2025 年 03 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 相关研究 [Table_ReportInfo] 《均衡组合维持优势——风格 Smart beta 组合跟踪周报 （2025.03.03-2025.03.07）》2025.03.11 《大额买入与资金流向跟踪 （20250303-20250307）》2025.03.11 《本周高频因子表现反弹，AI 增强组合有 所回撤——高频选股因子周报 （202500303-20250307）》2025.03.08 分析师:郑雅斌 证书:S0850524010001 联系人:付欣郁 Tel:02123183940 Email:fxy15672@haitong.com 稳健型固收+产品 YTD 业绩中位数 0.09% — — 绝 对 收 益 产 品 及 策 略 周 报 （20250303-20250307） 投资要点： Tel:(021)23219395 Email:zhengyb@haitong.com 证书:S0850511040004 分析师:曹君豪 Tel:(021)23185657 ...

Quantitative Factors and Their Construction 1. Factor Name: Small-Cap Factor - **Construction Idea**: The small-cap factor measures the performance of stocks with smaller market capitalization, which historically tend to outperform larger-cap stocks under certain market conditions [17][18] - **Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using four indicators: valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility. These indicators are combined into a composite score to assess the degree of crowding [18] - **Evaluation**: The small-cap factor showed a positive crowding level, indicating relatively strong performance and lower risk of factor failure [19] 2. Factor Name: Low-Valuation Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor identifies stocks with lower valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings or price-to-book ratios, which are expected to generate higher returns over time [17][18] - **Construction Process**: Similar to the small-cap factor, the low-valuation factor's crowding level is assessed using the same four indicators (valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility) and combined into a composite score [18] - **Evaluation**: The low-valuation factor exhibited a slightly negative crowding level, suggesting moderate underperformance or potential risks of factor inefficiency [19] 3. Factor Name: High-Profitability Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor targets stocks with strong profitability metrics, such as high return on equity (ROE) or net profit margins, which are often associated with stable and superior returns [17][18] - **Construction Process**: The factor's crowding level is calculated using the same methodology as the small-cap and low-valuation factors, combining the four indicators into a composite score [18] - **Evaluation**: The high-profitability factor showed a negative crowding level, indicating potential underperformance or risks of factor inefficiency [19] 4. Factor Name: High-Growth Factor - **Construction Idea**: This factor focuses on stocks with high growth rates in earnings or revenues, which are expected to deliver higher returns in growth-oriented market environments [17][18] - **Construction Process**: The high-growth factor's crowding level is also derived from the four indicators (valuation spread, pairwise correlation, long-term return reversal, and factor volatility) and combined into a composite score [18] - **Evaluation**: The high-growth factor exhibited the most negative crowding level among the factors analyzed, indicating significant underperformance and a higher risk of factor failure [19] --- Backtesting Results of Factors 1. Small-Cap Factor - **Valuation Spread**: 1.74 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: -0.32 [19] - **Market Volatility**: -0.38 [19] - **Return Reversal**: 1.43 [19] - **Composite Score**: 0.62 [19] 2. Low-Valuation Factor - **Valuation Spread**: -0.33 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: 0.05 [19] - **Market Volatility**: 0.15 [19] - **Return Reversal**: -0.29 [19] - **Composite Score**: -0.10 [19] 3. High-Profitability Factor - **Valuation Spread**: -1.23 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: -0.05 [19] - **Market Volatility**: 0.28 [19] - **Return Reversal**: -0.44 [19] - **Composite Score**: -0.36 [19] 4. High-Growth Factor - **Valuation Spread**: -2.04 [19] - **Pairwise Correlation**: 0.08 [19] - **Market Volatility**: -0.65 [19] - **Return Reversal**: -1.02 [19] - **Composite Score**: -0.91 [19]

[Table_MainInfo] 公司研究/信息服务 证券研究报告 奥飞数据（300738）公司研究报告 2025 年 03 月 11 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 首次 覆盖 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 主要财务数据及预测 股票数据 | 03[Table_StockInfo 月 10 日收盘价（元）] | 24.36 | | --- | --- | | 52 周股价波动（元） | 8.48-26.87 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万股） | 978/977 | | 总市值/流通市值（百万元） | 23813/23806 | | 相关研究 | | 市场表现 [Table_QuoteInfo] -26.17% 8.83% 43.83% 78.83% 113.83% 148.83% 2024/3 2024/6 2024/9 2024/12 奥飞数据 海通综指 沪深 300 对比 1M 2M 3M 绝对涨幅（%） 55.9 106.3 77.7 | 绝对涨幅（%） | 55.9 | 106.3 | 77.7 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3]. Core Insights - The company has established itself as a leader in the high-end gold jewelry market, focusing on traditional craftsmanship and setting industry standards. It has shown significant growth, with a projected net profit of 1.4 to 1.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 236% to 260% [6][21]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, known as "Old Puh Gold," has evolved from focusing on traditional gold jewelry to becoming a trendsetter in the industry. It launched its first store in 2009 and has since expanded its presence in high-end shopping centers, achieving a market penetration of 80% in China's top ten luxury malls [6][21]. Barriers to Entry - The company has established strong barriers through its unique design capabilities, effective incentive mechanisms, high-quality products, and robust distribution channels. Its average monthly salary for sales personnel increased from 28,700 yuan in 2021 to 38,200 yuan in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 16% [8][37]. The self-built factory in Yueyang has significantly increased production capacity, with a self-production ratio exceeding 59% from 2021 to 2023 [8][44]. Financial Performance - The company has maintained a gross margin above 40% from 2020 to 2023, with a net profit margin increasing from 5.1% in 2018 to 13.1% in 2023. The projected revenue for 2024 is 86 billion yuan, with a net profit of 14.5 billion yuan [9][11]. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to reach 39% in 2024, driven by improvements in net profit margin and asset turnover [9][11]. Growth Projections - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projections of 86 billion yuan in 2024, 143 billion yuan in 2025, and 180 billion yuan in 2026. The net profit is expected to grow to 32.1 billion yuan by 2026 [9][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leader in the high-end gold jewelry segment, with a focus on traditional craftsmanship. The market for traditional gold jewelry is expected to grow from 157.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 421.4 billion yuan by 2028, indicating a strong growth trajectory [49][51]. The loyal customer base has expanded significantly, with the number of loyal members increasing from 36,500 in 2021 to 275,000 by mid-2024 [53].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the information services industry is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The release of Manus, the world's first general AI Agent, signifies that China's AI research capabilities have reached a world-class level, indicating that AI Agents are at a critical point of commercial explosion [8]. - The government work report emphasizes the importance of technology sectors, including artificial intelligence, smart driving, and quantum technology, which are expected to benefit from favorable policies [8]. - The report suggests that 2025 is likely to be the year of significant commercial breakthroughs for AI Agents, with major tech companies like Google and Microsoft actively developing AI Agent applications [8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights the launch of Manus, which outperforms OpenAI's Deep Research in benchmark tests, showcasing its capabilities as a powerful general assistant capable of executing complex tasks independently [6][8]. - Manus is positioned as a versatile assistant that can perform various tasks, including HR functions, educational content creation, and financial report analysis, demonstrating its advanced learning and adaptability [6]. Government Policy and Economic Outlook - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% in 2025, with a focus on implementing proactive fiscal policies and increasing government debt to stimulate economic activity [6]. - The report outlines the government's commitment to advancing the digital economy and supporting the widespread application of large models in various sectors [6]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Kingsoft Office, Hongsoft Technology, and Runze Technology, which are expected to benefit from the growth in the AI sector [8].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Macro Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model predicts future macroeconomic environments using proxy variables and selects optimal assets for absolute return portfolios based on these predictions[25] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses proxy variables to forecast macroeconomic conditions such as inflation, economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment[25] - Based on these forecasts, the model selects assets that are expected to perform best in the predicted environment[25] - Example formula: $ \text{Expected Return} = \alpha + \beta \times \text{Macro Variable} $ where $\alpha$ is the intercept and $\beta$ is the coefficient representing the sensitivity to the macro variable[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in predicting macroeconomic conditions and selecting optimal assets for different environments[25] - **Model Test Results**: - Q1 2025 predictions: Inflation environment - Asset returns: CSI 300: 0.10%, CSI 2000: 6.05%, Nanhua Commodity Index: 3.26%, China Bond Total Wealth Index: 0.51%[25] 2. Model Name: Macro Momentum Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses multiple dimensions such as economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment to time major asset classes like stocks and bonds[25] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model constructs macro momentum indicators based on economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and risk sentiment[25] - These indicators are used to time investments in major asset classes[25] - Example formula: $ \text{Momentum Score} = \sum_{i=1}^{n} w_i \times \text{Indicator}_i $ where $w_i$ is the weight of the $i$-th indicator and $\text{Indicator}_i$ is the value of the $i$-th indicator[25] - **Model Evaluation**: The model is effective in timing investments based on macroeconomic conditions[25] - **Model Test Results**: - February 2025 returns: CSI 300: 3.19%, China Bond Total Wealth Index: 0.08%, Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 contract: 6.43%[25] Model Backtest Results 1. Macro Timing Model - **Weekly Return**: -0.12%[32] - **Monthly Return**: 0.36%[32] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -0.31%[32] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.71%[32] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.51%[32] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -0.95[32] 2. Macro Momentum Model - **Weekly Return**: -0.20%[32] - **Monthly Return**: 0.18%[32] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 0.15%[32] - **Annualized Volatility**: 1.50%[32] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 0.47%[32] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.87[32] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: PB Profitability - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor selects stocks based on their price-to-book (PB) ratio and profitability metrics[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Stocks are ranked based on their PB ratio and profitability metrics[38] - The top-ranked stocks are selected for the portfolio[38] - Example formula: $ \text{PB Profitability Score} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Book Value}} $ where $\text{Net Income}$ is the company's net income and $\text{Book Value}$ is the company's book value[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in selecting stocks with high profitability relative to their book value[38] 2. Factor Name: High Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor selects stocks based on their dividend yield[38] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Stocks are ranked based on their dividend yield[38] - The top-ranked stocks are selected for the portfolio[38] - Example formula: $ \text{Dividend Yield} = \frac{\text{Annual Dividends}}{\text{Stock Price}} $ where $\text{Annual Dividends}$ is the total dividends paid annually and $\text{Stock Price}$ is the current stock price[38] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor is effective in selecting stocks with high dividend yields[38] Factor Backtest Results 1. PB Profitability Factor - **Weekly Return**: 0.09%[39] - **Monthly Return**: 0.36%[39] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 0.38%[39] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.63%[39] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.82%[39] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -0.44[39] 2. High Dividend Yield Factor - **Weekly Return**: 0.03%[39] - **Monthly Return**: 0.15%[39] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 0.01%[39] - **Annualized Volatility**: 2.34%[39] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 1.39%[39] - **Sharpe Ratio**: -0.64[39]

证券研究报告 （优于大市，维持） 《海外新能源车销量月报：25年1月美国同 比+12%，欧洲同比+24%》 马天一（电力设备及新能源联席首席分析师） SAC号码：S0850523030004 联系人：李依雯 欧洲：25年1月新能源车销量17.1万辆，同比+23.8% 销量：2025年1月欧洲新能源车销量170909辆，同比+23.8%，环比-25.7%。 渗透率：2025年1月欧洲新能源车渗透率23.2%，同比+4.7pct，环比-4.1pct。 2025年2月19日 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2 欧洲：2025年1月欧洲新能源车销量17.1万辆，同比+23.8%，环比-25.7%；渗透率23.2%，同比+4.7pct， 环比-4.1pct，德国、意大利销量显著恢复。其中，25年1月销量前三的国家为：1）德国：25年1月新能 源车销量5.2万辆，同比+41.8%，环比-0.8%；渗透率25.1%，同比+7.9pct，环比+1.7pct；2）英国： 25年1月新能源车销量4.2万辆，同比+28.4%，环比-25.1%；渗透率30.3%，同比+7.3pct，环比-9.7%； 3）法国：25年1 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 每日报告精选 证券研究报告 最新研究与资讯 2025 年 02 月 18 日 | [Table_Marketinfo] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 重要市场数据 | | | | 名称 | 日涨跌% | 周涨跌% | 年涨跌% | | 海通风格指数 | | | | | 大盘 100 | -0.17 | 1.13 | -3.10 | | 小盘 200 | 1.30 | 1.34 | 6.06 | | 表现最好前五行业 | | | | | 通讯服务 | 6.62 | 14.20 | 25.33 | | 信息设备 | 1.58 | 1.84 | 6.79 | | 农业指数 | 1.12 | 2.63 | 0.52 | | 造纸指数 | 1.03 | 1.02 | -0.57 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公用事业 | 0.98 | 1.08 | -4.39 | | 表现最差前五行业 | | | | | 传媒指数 | -2.19 | 6.67 | 15.57 | | 有色金属 | -2.16 | -2.83 ...

[Table_MainInfo] 行业研究/交通运输 证券研究报告 行业周报 2025 年 02 月 18 日 [Table_InvestInfo] 投资评级 优于大市 维持 周报：西延高铁全线隧道贯通 资料来源：海通证券研究所 市场表现 相关研究 [Table_QuoteInfo] -5.37% -0.50% 4.37% 9.23% 14.10% 18.97% 2024/2 2024/5 2024/8 2024/11 交通运输 海通综指 [Table_ReportInfo] 《周报：全国城市轨道交通线路达 325 条》2025.01.22 《周报：优化交通运输市场要素资源配 臵，为加快建设统一开放的交通运输市场 提供有力保障》2025.01.15 《周报：民航春运旅客量预计突破九千万 人次》2025.01.07 分析师:虞楠 Tel:(021)23219382 Email:yun@haitong.com 证书:S0850512070003 分析师:罗月江 Tel:(010)58067993 Email:lyj12399@haitong.com 证书:S0850518100001 分析师:杜清丽 Tel:(0 ...