行 业 研 究 / 传 媒 互 联 网/ 证 券 研 究 报 告 传媒互联网行业动态点评 海运价格持续上涨,头部大卖抗风险能 力更胜 2024 年 06 月 24 日 【事项】 海运价格逆季节性持续上涨。受年初红海事件影响,中国出口集装箱 运价指数三四月份小幅回调后,再次持续上涨。较四月中旬低点,近 两个月 CCFI 综合指数上涨 46%。四月中旬至六月中旬,中国出口集装 箱运价指数:南非/南美/欧洲/东南亚/美西/地中海航线分别上涨 126%/110%/48%/48%/43%/36%。 【评论】 海运费上涨,受供需两端共同影响。供给端:1)地缘政治影响,红 海危机未解除:中东地区紧张氛围被再次点燃,航运船只绕行好望角, 航运干线运力周期增加,成本增加;2)船舶公司削减运力:船公司 削减有效运力致舱位紧张,引发涨价潮。需求端:1)消费旺季到来: 购物节大多集中在下半年,亚马逊 Prime 会员日 7 月全球举行,备货 需求增加;2)半托管模式兴起:Temu 等跨境电商平台开放半托管模 式,跨境卖家多平台运营增加海外仓备货。 头部大卖抗风险能力更胜一筹。海运费持续走高,卖家头程货运周期 拉长、费用成本增加,或导 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The brain-computer interface (BCI) industry is in its early development stage, with significant potential for growth driven by policy, technology, and market demand. The report expresses cautious optimism about companies such as Chengyitong and Weisi Medical, while suggesting attention to Xiangyu Medical and Sanbo Neuroscience [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Brain-Computer Interfaces - BCIs establish a direct communication channel between the brain and external devices, bypassing peripheral nerves. The technology is categorized into invasive and non-invasive interfaces, with applications ranging from medical to entertainment [10][11]. 2. Development History - The evolution of BCIs can be divided into three stages: academic exploration, scientific validation, and application trials. The current phase is characterized by rapid advancements in clinical applications and product development [14][15]. 3. Industry Chain and Challenges - The BCI industry chain is still in its infancy, with a lack of standardized mass production in upstream devices. Key technologies include BCI chips and algorithms, which present significant barriers to entry. The industry faces challenges in technology maturity and commercialization, with a heavy reliance on imported components in China [18][19][25]. 4. Market Situation - The global BCI market was valued at $2.35 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach $10.89 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.20% from 2024 to 2033. The medical sector dominates the market, accounting for 63.30% of applications [33][35]. 5. Application Areas - The medical health sector is the primary application area for BCIs, with over half of the related companies focusing on medical solutions. Applications include monitoring and treatment of neurological disorders, rehabilitation, and health management [30][31][32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [5]. Core Insights - The introduction of policies to enhance critical care services is expected to expand the market for high-end medical equipment, including ventilators and ECMO devices. The government aims to increase the number of ICU beds to 15 per 100,000 people by the end of 2025 and to 18 by the end of 2027, which will significantly boost the critical care market [3]. - The critical care market in China is projected to reach USD 1.637 billion by 2027, with a CAGR of 7.41% from 2021 to 2027, driven by the new policies [3]. - Companies such as Mindray Medical and Lifetech Scientific are recommended for investment due to their involvement in critical care equipment [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The Chinese government has issued a directive to improve critical care services, which includes increasing the number of ICU beds and enhancing the capabilities of medical institutions [3]. - The policy encourages the introduction of advanced treatment technologies and aims to fill the gaps in critical care expertise [3]. Market Projections - The critical care market is expected to grow significantly, with specific targets set for ICU bed availability by 2025 and 2027 [3]. - The anticipated market size by 2027 is USD 1.637 billion, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in critical care equipment, particularly Mindray Medical and Lifetech Scientific, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the expanding market [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianyue Advanced (688234) [4][6] Core Views - Tianyue Advanced's performance has reached an inflection point, driven by accelerated overseas validation and economies of scale [1] - The company achieved a significant turnaround in 2023, with revenue growth of 199.90% YoY and a narrowing net loss of 73.91% YoY [2] - In Q1 2024, the company continued its strong performance with a 120.66% YoY revenue increase and a return to profitability [2] - The company has maintained revenue growth for 8 consecutive quarters, with improving gross margins and profitability since Q3 2023 [2] Financial Performance - 2023 revenue reached 1.251 billion yuan, with a net loss of 46 million yuan [2] - Q4 2023 revenue was 426 million yuan, with a gross margin of 17.84% and net profit of 23 million yuan [2] - Q1 2024 revenue was 426 million yuan, with a gross margin of 21.92% and net profit of 46 million yuan [2] - The company forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of 2.134 billion, 3.032 billion, and 4.144 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 173 million, 230 million, and 423 million yuan [6][7] Operational Highlights - The company has established three major SiC semiconductor material production bases in Jinan, Jining, and Shanghai [2] - Shanghai Lingang factory achieved 300,000 wafer capacity by end-2023, with plans for 960,000 wafer capacity in phase two [2] - 2023 substrate sales reached 226,300 wafers, a 255% YoY increase, making the company a top-three global player in conductive SiC substrates [2] - The company has secured long-term agreements with major international players like Infineon and Bosch, with over 10% share in Infineon's 6-inch conductive substrate procurement [2] Technological Advantages - The company leads in automotive-grade conductive SiC substrates [2] - It has a leading position in 8-inch conductive substrate product layout, quality, and mass supply capabilities [2] - The company has pioneered the use of liquid-phase methods to produce low-defect 8-inch crystals, overcoming key challenges in SiC crystal growth [2] International Expansion - Overseas revenue reached 411 million yuan in 2023, an 822.26% YoY increase [2] - International business gross margin reached 28.95%, significantly higher than domestic operations [2] - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of leading overseas customers with high-quality conductive SiC substrates [2] Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of 22.736 billion yuan and a circulating market cap of 13.988 billion yuan [3] - It has established cooperation with over 50% of the world's top 10 power semiconductor manufacturers [2] - The company is actively supporting the industry transition to 8-inch products [2]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the near term [12]. Core Insights - The company, Baoguang Co., Ltd. (600379), reported a significant increase in performance for Q1 2024, with revenue reaching 401 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 16 million yuan, up 73% year-on-year. This growth is attributed to enhanced market expansion efforts, improved product sales structure, and benefits from tax incentives [1][12]. - Baoguang is a leader in the vacuum arc extinguishing chamber industry and is actively expanding into hydrogen energy, solar thermal, and energy storage sectors, aligning with global trends towards green and low-carbon energy [9][12]. - The global market for vacuum arc extinguishing chambers is projected to grow from 2.93 billion USD in 2024 to 3.7 billion USD by 2029, with a CAGR of 4.7%. The company has achieved growth in both domestic and international markets, breaking through key technologies to reduce reliance on foreign products [2][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Baoguang's revenue was 401 million yuan, with a net profit of 16 million yuan, reflecting a 73% increase year-on-year. The company expects continued growth, projecting net profits of 104 million yuan, 125 million yuan, and 148 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1][12][13]. - The company’s EBITDA for 2023 was 117.52 million yuan, with projections of 136.72 million yuan for 2024, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [13]. Industry Position - Baoguang is recognized as a champion in single-item manufacturing by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, maintaining the highest global sales volume in vacuum arc extinguishing chambers. The company is also focusing on the domestic market's rapid growth and the increasing pace of localization in various sectors [9][12]. - The company is actively involved in the development of high-voltage vacuum arc extinguishing chambers, with production capabilities expected to ramp up by July 2024 [2][12]. Growth Opportunities - The hydrogen energy and solar thermal sectors are identified as new growth points, with Baoguang's hydrogen business maintaining high capacity utilization rates and expanding into new markets [10][12]. - In the energy storage sector, Baoguang has established itself as a leading contractor for thermal power energy storage projects, including Asia's largest thermal power energy storage project [11][12].

光伏产品出口月报(2024年5月) 2024 年 06 月 21 日 【投资要点】 光伏电池组件:欧洲拉货持平,拉美非洲环比提升 1) 总量:2024 年 5 月,国内光伏电池组件出口 28.27 亿美元,环比 -0.88%,按照 Infolink 上月组件出口均价测算,国内 5 月光伏组 件(不含电池)出口 20.62GW,同比+8.54%,环比-1.33%。2024 年 1-5 月,国内光伏电池组件累计出口 147.47 亿美元,同比下降 33.28%。 2) 分区域:5 月国内出口欧洲光伏电池组件 13.58 亿美元,环比 -0.17%;出口亚洲 9.70 亿美元,环比-5.84%;出口拉美 3.01 亿 美元,环比+11.09%;出口非洲 1.26 亿美元,环比+13.75%。 3) 分发货地:5 月江苏出口 8.31 亿美元,环比-0.19%;浙江出口 7.57 亿美元,环比+17.48%。 光伏逆变器:需求持续复苏,浙江出口同环比提升 1) 总量:2024 年 5 月,国内光伏逆变器出口 7.80 亿美元,环比提 升 12.39%,自今年 2 月以来连续 3 月环比提升。2024 年 1-5 月, ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company [7][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the trends in the automotive and motorcycle sectors, with projected revenue growth from 2024 to 2026 [7]. - The motorcycle segment is experiencing strong international demand, with a notable increase in exports [22]. - The company has made significant advancements in research and development, particularly in electric vehicles and autonomous driving technologies [5][13]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 67.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 24.21 million yuan, down 84.35% [11][18]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.55%, and a net profit of 15.44 million yuan, down 62.05% year-on-year but up 141.10% quarter-on-quarter [11][18]. - The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 72.85 billion yuan, 77.13 billion yuan, and 81.38 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 0.40 billion yuan, 1.56 billion yuan, and 1.92 billion yuan [7][14]. Segment Performance - The automotive segment generated a revenue of 37.34 billion yuan in 2023, while the motorcycle segment achieved 20.33 billion yuan [18]. - The motorcycle segment's revenue decreased by 4.37% in 2023, but the overall overseas business grew by 14.80% [22]. - The company has successfully launched several new models and is focusing on enhancing its product offerings in both domestic and international markets [5][22].

电气设备行业动态点评 内外需求共振,海风有望迎来新一轮周 期 行 业 研 究 / 电 气 设 备/ 证 券 研 究 报 告 2024 年 06 月 21 日 【事项】 近日,全球风能理事会(GWEC)在韩国釜山发布《2024 全球海上风电 报告》。 【评论】 报告指出,全球海上风电2023年度新增装机量10.85GW,同比+23.73%, 为历史年度第二,其中欧洲 3.76GW,同比+52.89%,中国 6.33GW,同 比+25.36%。 根据 GWEC 预测,未来十年(2024-2033 年)全球将新增 410GW 海上风 电装机容量,23-28 年 CAGR 为+25%,28-33 年 CAGR 为+15%,综合 CAGR 为+19.82%。 中国:预计未来十年 CAGR 约 12%,2024 年有望开始提速并在 2025 年 迎来下一轮高峰,24-25 年增速分别为+89.48%、+25.00%。 欧洲:预计未来十年 CAGR 约 22%,继 2024 年小幅下滑后,2025 年有 望迎来新一轮爆发增长,25-26 年增速分别为+51.14%、+49.70%,英 国、德国、法国等国家将是主要增长来源。 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has shown a strong growth in orders on hand, with a high certainty of revenue growth. It ranks among the top 10 global tracking bracket manufacturers and has significantly increased its overseas revenue [2][9] - The company achieved a revenue of 6.39 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 72.59%, with a net profit of 345 million yuan, up 676.58% year-on-year [5][9] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 9.19 billion yuan, 12.07 billion yuan, and 14.27 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a revenue of 6.39 billion yuan, a 72.59% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 18.11%, up 5.66 percentage points [5] - The fourth quarter of 2023 saw revenue of 2.997 billion yuan, a 107.58% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.89% [5] - For Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.814 billion yuan, a 122.47% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 20.79% [5] Business Segments - The fixed bracket revenue was 2.062 billion yuan, up 26.34% year-on-year, while tracking bracket revenue reached 3.598 billion yuan, a 124.13% increase [5] - The company has a robust order backlog, with approximately 4.7 billion yuan in orders as of December 31, 2023, and 6.8 billion yuan as of March 31, 2024 [16] Market Position and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its global presence, particularly in overseas photovoltaic markets, benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative [2][6] - The decline in photovoltaic raw material prices has positively impacted the company's bracket business, leading to improved profitability [5]

行 业 研 究 / 电 子 设 备/ 证 券 研 究 报 告 电子设备行业动态点评 折叠屏市场"火热",关注重要创新环 节 2024 年 06 月 21 日 【事项】 近期,Counterpoint Research 发布了折叠屏手机出货量报告,2024Q1 全球折叠屏手机出货量同比增长 49%,创下过去六个季度的最高增幅, 华为出货量排名第一,占比达到 35%,Mate X5 和 Pocket 2 机型贡献 较大增量。 近期,DSCC 发布《折叠/卷曲屏出货量和技术报告》,预计 2024Q2 折 叠屏智能手机面板出货量将同比增长 113%至 925 万片,主要增长原因 有两个方面:一方面,三星比去年提前一个月采购/生产最新的 Z Flip 和 Z Fold 面板;另一方面,华为的面板采购量随着新机型和中国强 劲的需求而继续增长。 【评论】 折叠屏手机渗透率持续提升。根据 IDC 以及 TrendForce 披露数据, 折叠屏手机出货量长期保持较高增速,且渗透率有望持续提升,预计 2028 年渗透率达到 4.8%。伴随着华为三折屏专利等技术上的逐渐迭 代更新,折叠终端有望打开更大市场空间。 重点关注屏幕、铰链 ...