行 业 研 究 / 医 药 生 物 / 证 券 研 究 报 医药生物行业专题研究 医药生物行业 2025H1 财报总结：Q2 环 比改善，创新药迎发展机遇 2025 年 09 月 18 日 【投资要点】 【配置建议】 【风险提示】 行业政策变化风险；原材料价格大幅波动风险；主要产品销售增长不 达预期；研发进展不达预期 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：何玮 证书编号：S1160517110001 证券分析师：崔晓倩 相对指数表现 -10% 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 2024/9 2025/3 2025/9 医药生物 沪深300 相关研究 《持续看好我国创新药械的发展前景》 2025.08.19 《关注"双循环"共振下的中药配置良机》 2025.08.11 《医药外贸展现韧性，关注国际国内双循 环机会》 2025.08.04 《政策定调下，医疗器械板块有望迎拐点》 证书编号：S1160525080001 2025.07.29 《集采新规促行业健康发展》 2025.07.22 告 截至 2025H1 对 A 股医药企业最新发布的年报数据汇总，461 家医药 生物 A ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a rating of "Buy" for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth rates of 10.21%, 13.80%, and 15.81% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with absolute values of 33.59 billion, 38.23 billion, and 44.27 billion [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to grow by 7.53%, 18.45%, and 16.85% over the same period, with absolute values of 7.73 billion, 9.16 billion, and 10.70 billion [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company launched its liquor business in 2016 and has made significant investments, exceeding 35 billion, to establish a production capacity of 26,000 tons for grain-based spirits and 4,000 tons for malt whiskey by 2024 [13][14] - The company aims to achieve a raw liquor reserve target of 1 million barrels over the next five years, positioning itself as the largest liquor manufacturer in China [13][18] Product Development and Market Strategy - The company has successfully localized imported products, particularly in the ready-to-drink cocktail market, where it holds the top market share in China [34] - The product matrix has been refined to meet diverse consumer preferences, with a focus on high-quality and innovative offerings [22][23] - The company has developed a dual-brand strategy for whiskey, with a focus on high-quality products that cater to both traditional and modern consumer tastes [22] Market Potential and Consumer Insights - The domestic whiskey market is expected to double in size, driven by the growing consumer interest in premium and differentiated products [4] - The company has identified a significant overlap in the consumer demographics of its ready-to-drink cocktails and whiskey, particularly among younger consumers aged 18-39 [59] Financial Projections - Revenue and net profit forecasts indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 33.59 billion, 38.23 billion, and 44.27 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.69 in 2024 to 1.02 by 2027, reflecting the company's growth strategy and market positioning [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the food and beverage sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the market [2]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 582.81 billion yuan for H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.47%. However, the growth rate has slowed down in Q2 2025, with revenue of 255.18 billion yuan, up 2.36% year-on-year [19][21]. - The overall profitability of the sector has slightly declined, with a net profit of 127.67 billion yuan for H1 2025, down 0.60% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 21.91%. In Q2 2025, the net profit was 46.08 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.10% year-on-year and 43.52% quarter-on-quarter [21][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector's revenue is steadily increasing, with H1 2025 revenue at 582.81 billion yuan, a 2.47% increase year-on-year. Q2 2025 revenue was 255.18 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.36% year-on-year growth [19][21]. - The sector's profitability has slightly decreased, with a net profit of 127.67 billion yuan for H1 2025, down 0.60% year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 21.91% [21]. 2. Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu sector is under pressure, with a reported revenue of 240.75 billion yuan and a net profit of 94.58 billion yuan for H1 2025, showing declines of 0.75% and 1.15% year-on-year, respectively. Excluding Moutai, the revenue and net profit declines are more pronounced at -13.1% and -21.5% [23][24]. - The high-end segment maintains better performance due to strong brand power, while the second and third-tier brands are experiencing significant differentiation and pressure [36][37]. 3. Low-Alcohol Beverages and Drinks - The low-alcohol beverage segment shows positive trends, with leading brands continuing to perform well. The sector is expected to benefit from seasonal demand in Q2 [19][21]. 4. Snacks - The snack segment is driven by high-growth categories and channels, with significant revenue growth in H1 2025 attributed to popular products and membership store channels [19][21]. 5. Dairy Products - The dairy sector is seeing continued upstream destocking, with a positive outlook for beef prices. The revenue growth for H1 2025 has turned positive, with strong performance from leading companies [9][22]. 6. Seasoning and Restaurant Chains - The seasoning sector has shown stable growth, while the restaurant chain sector has demonstrated resilience despite policy impacts. The revenue growth for leading companies remains strong [9][22].

Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Historical consumption recovery during bull markets typically lags behind stock market recovery by 2-3 quarters, but shows good sustainability[1] - In the three bull markets since 2000, the recovery of retail sales growth lasted over 20 months in the first two rounds and 7 months in the third round[11] - Consumer confidence index generally improves during bull markets, indicating a wealth effect on consumption[2] Group 2: Impact of Bull Markets on Consumption Categories - Each bull market has different consumption categories that see significant growth; essential goods and dining-related consumption surged in the first round, while communication devices and jewelry saw the largest increases in the second round[3] - Major durable goods like automobiles and entertainment products experienced notable growth in the third round[3] - Three categories consistently showed recovery across all bull markets: home appliances, daily necessities, and grain/oil products[25] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - If consumer stimulus policies are weaker than expected, the recovery in consumption during a bull market may also be weaker than anticipated[32] - Unexpected overseas geopolitical events could negatively impact domestic risk appetite and consumer confidence[32]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][7] Core Views - The company demonstrates stable growth driven by both domestic and international markets, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2025 [6][7] - The company is expanding its product offerings, particularly in the automotive sector, which is expected to contribute to future growth [6][7] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 13.7% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 40.5%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins in the newly expanded automotive sector [6] - The company’s revenue from overseas sales reached 120 million yuan in H1 2025, reflecting a 40.2% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin improvement of 10.4 percentage points to 53.1% [6] - Domestic sales amounted to 650 million yuan, a 24.6% increase year-on-year, although the gross margin decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 38.2% [6] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1.86 billion yuan, 2.22 billion yuan, and 2.63 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 23.7%, 19.5%, and 18.6% respectively [7][8] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 350 million yuan, 410 million yuan, and 470 million yuan, with growth rates of 10.0%, 17.3%, and 14.8% respectively [7][8] Key Financial Ratios - The report indicates an expected PE ratio of 18.8, 16.1, and 14.0 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, suggesting a favorable valuation trend [7][8] - The company’s net profit margin is projected to be 19.7% in H1 2025, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Add" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 41.2% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 5.66 billion RMB, with adjusted profit rising by 42.4% to 1.09 billion RMB [4][5]. - The total GMV for the first half of 2025 was 14.1 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 34.4%, with average monthly GMV per store increasing by 20.6% to 228,000 RMB [4]. - The company opened 1,570 new stores in the first half of 2025, a 105.2% increase, bringing the total number of stores to 11,179, indicating a strong expansion strategy [4]. Financial Performance - The gross profit for the first half of 2025 was 1.79 billion RMB, maintaining a gross margin of 31.5% [4]. - The adjusted core profit for the same period was 1.14 billion RMB, showing a 49.0% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company expects net profit for 2025 to reach 2.615 billion RMB, with a projected PE ratio of 18 times [5]. Growth Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 8.79 billion RMB in 2024 to 17.33 billion RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.90% [6][11]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 1.48 billion RMB in 2024 to 2.98 billion RMB in 2027, with a notable growth rate of 76.89% in 2025 [6][11]. Market Position - The company has established a leading self-owned cold chain storage and logistics system, with 22 warehouses and a cold storage capacity exceeding 61,000 cubic meters [4]. - Approximately 75% of the stores are within a 150 km radius of the warehouses, allowing for efficient cold chain delivery services [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.588 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.3%, and a net profit of RMB 670 million, up 36.1% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin stood at 84.2%, slightly down by 0.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin improved by 0.9 percentage points to 25.9%, primarily due to a reduction in sales expense ratio [1]. - The company is experiencing strong growth across its core product categories, with makeup and skincare showing particularly robust performance [2][7]. Revenue Breakdown by Product Category - **Makeup**: Revenue reached RMB 1.42 billion in H1 2025, a 31.1% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from flagship products [2]. - **Skincare**: Revenue was RMB 1.09 billion, up 33.4% year-on-year, with strong sales from key products [2]. - **Fragrance**: The fragrance category generated RMB 0.11 billion in its first year, with a gross margin of 77.6% [2]. - **Training Business**: Revenue declined to RMB 67 million, down 5.9% year-on-year, due to a strategic decision to limit enrollment for quality improvement [3]. Revenue Breakdown by Channel - **Online Sales**: Revenue from online channels was RMB 1.3 billion, a 39% increase year-on-year, surpassing offline sales for the first time [6]. - **Offline Sales**: Offline revenue reached RMB 1.22 billion, up 26.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in same-store sales [6]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits of RMB 1.22 billion, RMB 1.54 billion, and RMB 1.90 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 38.7%, 26.1%, and 23.4% [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are RMB 5.153 billion, RMB 6.485 billion, and RMB 7.826 billion, reflecting growth rates of 32.65%, 25.85%, and 20.66% [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the construction sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [3]. Core Insights - The construction sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in revenue and profits, with improved cash flow conditions noted in Q2 2025 [1][6]. - The report highlights the resilience of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in securing new orders, particularly in high-demand sectors such as water conservancy and railways [6][37]. - The overall investment environment remains challenging, but strategic government initiatives, including the acceleration of special bond issuance, are expected to support infrastructure funding in the latter half of 2025 [26][31]. Summary by Sections Cash Flow - In H1 2025, listed construction companies reported a net cash outflow of 482.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 18.5 billion yuan year-on-year. Q2 2025 saw a single-quarter net cash outflow of 43.22 billion yuan, down 32.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio improved to 95.18% in H1 and 87.23% in Q2, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.44 and 11.67 percentage points, respectively [2]. Orders - New signed orders for the construction sector in H1 2025 totaled 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1%. However, Q2 2025 saw a single-quarter new signed order of 4.3 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1%. The report indicates that SOEs showed resilience with a 0% change in new signed orders, while local SOEs and private enterprises experienced declines of 12% and 4%, respectively [6][37]. Performance - The construction sector achieved a revenue of 39.1 trillion yuan in H1 2025, down 5.6% year-on-year, with a net profit of 90.98 billion yuan, a decline of 6.4%. In Q2 2025, revenue was 20 trillion yuan, down 5.1%, and net profit was 44.91 billion yuan, down 3.9%. The gross profit margin improved to 10.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.04 percentage points [6][37]. Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on state-owned construction enterprises benefiting from national key projects and high-demand regional SOEs. Specific recommendations include China Railway Construction, China State Construction, and China Communications Construction [7]. - It also suggests investing in high-demand segments such as major strategic projects and new productivity-enhancing technologies like AI and robotics [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company is a leading manufacturer of wet wipes in China, with over 20 years of experience, focusing on research, production, and sales of various wet wipe products [2][11]. - The company is expected to reach an inflection point in performance, driven by international market expansion and a recent stock incentive plan that reflects growth confidence [2][3]. - The company has a strong international customer base, including well-known brands such as Woolworths, Kimberly-Clark, Johnson & Johnson, and L'Oréal, which provides a stable order flow and high-margin opportunities [2][3][49]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in wet wipes, offering over 60 products across six major categories, including baby wipes, adult functional wipes, antibacterial wipes, household cleaning wipes, medical care wipes, and pet cleaning wipes [2][11]. - The company has adopted an ODM/OEM model to produce wet wipes for global brands, enhancing its market presence [2][11]. Industry Analysis - The global wet wipes market is projected to grow steadily, with a market size of approximately $18.4 billion (about 132.1 billion RMB) in 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% from 2024 to 2029 [41]. - The North American and European markets dominate the global wet wipes consumption, accounting for 64.5% of the total market [41]. Company Analysis - The company has a high customer concentration, primarily serving international clients, which contributes to stable cash flow and reduces risks [49][57]. - The company has a competitive edge in securing orders due to long-term relationships with international clients and advanced production technology [58][64]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a new facility in the United States expected to be operational by 2026, which will significantly enhance its market share in North America [72]. Financial Forecast - The company anticipates a recovery in revenue, projecting a net profit of 0.8 billion RMB in 2025, increasing to 1.4 billion RMB by 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 50, 38, and 29 [3][76]. - The revenue for 2025 is estimated at 727.5 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 32.89% compared to 2024 [4][75].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from the high demand for AI computing power, leading to rapid growth in performance [5] - The company has a leading vertical integration capability in the optical device sector, providing a one-stop service for optical communication products [5] - The company has successfully optimized its business layout and adjusted its product structure, resulting in a significant increase in gross margins for data and access products [4][5] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 5.243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 68.59%, and a net profit of 372 million yuan, up 78.98% [4] - The revenue from data and access products increased by 149.27% to 3.715 billion yuan, accounting for 70.86% of total revenue [4] - The company expects revenues of 11.747 billion, 14.349 billion, and 16.756 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 985 million, 1.246 billion, and 1.529 billion yuan [5][6] Market Position - The company has a leading market share in supplying data communication products to major domestic internet companies, benefiting from the rapid growth in downstream computing power demand [4] - The company has completed the construction of overseas manufacturing bases, with overseas revenue reaching 1.309 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 24.39% [4] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth due to the accelerating construction of data centers and the increasing demand for high-end optical devices and high-speed optical modules [4][5] - The implementation of an employee stock incentive plan is anticipated to enhance team cohesion and drive performance growth [4]