Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [5]. Core Insights - The company has seen a significant increase in overseas orders, with new contracts amounting to 7.2 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 140.1%. In Q4 alone, new overseas orders reached 2.2 billion yuan, a staggering increase of 568.4% [4]. - The company’s cash flow has shown continuous improvement, with operating net cash flow rising from -243 million yuan in 2021 to 771 million yuan in 2024. The cash collection ratio improved from 83.08% to 92.90% [4]. - A shareholder return plan has been announced, indicating that the company expects to distribute at least 70% of its net profit to shareholders in cash over the next three years, which enhances its high dividend attribute [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s total market capitalization is 9,254.08 million yuan, with a 52-week high of 4.75 yuan and a low of 2.96 yuan. The stock has seen a 52-week increase of 57.09% [4]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 629 million yuan, 729 million yuan, and 826 million yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.71, 12.70, and 11.20 [5][6]. Revenue Growth - Revenue is expected to grow from 184.92 billion yuan in 2024 to 255.31 billion yuan by 2027, with growth rates of 12.03%, 15.99%, 9.07%, and 9.14% for the respective years [6]. Profitability Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.26 yuan in 2024 to 0.42 yuan in 2027, reflecting a positive growth trajectory [6].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent concentration of open-ended amortized cost bond funds may support the credit bond market, with a total net asset value of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan as of the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of about 61.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4][9][10] - The report indicates a significant shift in the asset allocation of these funds from primarily interest rate bonds to credit bonds due to limited options in a low-interest-rate environment, with a notable increase in credit bond allocation expected in 2024-2025 [4][9][17] - The anticipated peak of open-ended amortized cost bond funds in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to reach approximately 3739.7 billion yuan, with a focus on bonds with maturities of over five years in January and February, and shorter maturities in March [10][4] Group 2 - The report details that the market share of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% at the end of 2024 to 54% by the end of 2025, while the share of non-financial credit bonds surged from 1% to 24%, indicating a significant reallocation towards credit bonds [17][18] - The core asset in the credit bond allocation is medium-term notes, which accounted for 14.11% of the total bond investment market value, with a holding value of approximately 375.6 billion yuan, marking an increase of 3675.85 billion yuan compared to the previous year [17][18] - The report emphasizes that the open-ended amortized cost bond funds are likely to continue influencing the credit bond market, with a focus on 3-5 year maturity credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, as they seek to manage duration mismatch risks [27][4][9]

行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 装 饰 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 建筑装饰行业周报 继续推荐政策持续加码的未来产业成 长赛道，同时重视低位央国企配置机会 2026 年 02 月 08 日 【投资要点】 2）本周，《中共中央 国务院关于锚定农业农村现代化 扎实推进乡村 全面振兴的意见》正式发布，意见要求努力把农业建成现代化大产业， 使农村基本具备现代生活条件，让农民生活更加富裕美好。我们注意 到 2025 年国家发布《逐步把永久基本农田建成高标准农田实施方案》， 并发出通知，要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实。主要目标是， 到 2030 年，力争累计建成高标准农田 13.5 亿亩，累计改造提升 2.8 亿亩，统筹规划、同步实施高效节水灌溉，新增高效节水灌溉面积 8000 万亩，测算高标农田建设年空间 2000 亿元，且由于政府补贴能够覆盖 30%左右成本，因此资金确定性较高。高标农田建设企业【棕榈股份】、 水系统建设企业【大禹节水】有望受益。 3）本周，上海启动收购二手住房用于保障性租赁住房工作，浦东新区、 静安区、徐汇区为首批试点区。第一批拟收购房源将着重房型匹配、 布局合理、配套成熟、交通便捷等特点，尽量精 ...

策略周报 迎接春季行情第二段 2026 年 02 月 08 日 挖掘价值 投资成长 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：陈果 【策略观点】 市场正在计入沃什鹰派预期，我们认为市场可能高估，需要等待沃什 言行来进一步验证。我们认为降息周期仍将继续。去年底以来"价" 和"量"维度均显示美元流动性现实偏紧，美联储偏鹰与沃什"缩表" 预期无疑加剧这一现实，另外还需要考虑特朗普倾向于今年美国中期 选举的政治现实。总体看，预计沃什就任后，维护市场稳定、避免流 动性显著收缩还是基准假设，后续关注其公开言论，存在让市场流动 性预期回摆的可能。而海外 AI 资本开支超预期从现实层面是带来 AI 算力基建链景气上修，而市场率先计入对回报的担忧，这种担忧的合 理性却需要论据和现实验证。另外国内的 AI 投资则仍处起步阶段，周 期有明显差异。 而从国内因素看，市场的微观流动性有利环境与国内政策期待仍在， 结合历史上的季节效应，我们认为当前可积极迎接春季行情第二段。 从历年经验看，春节后两会前，政策预期及资金回流等因素共同支撑 风险偏好，市场进入可为期，而近期市场震荡走弱，则为后续春季行 情第二段创造空间。风格上成长/周期、小盘、高市盈率 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][56]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the snack retail industry, with significant growth in revenue and profit projected for the coming years. Revenue is expected to reach RMB 656.97 billion in 2025, RMB 837.49 billion in 2026, and RMB 925.80 billion in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 66.98%, 27.48%, and 10.54% respectively. Net profit is forecasted to be RMB 23.01 billion, RMB 34.23 billion, and RMB 42.85 billion for the same years, reflecting growth rates of 176.05%, 48.73%, and 25.19% respectively [2][56]. Company Overview - The company, founded in 2016, has rapidly expanded its store count from 1,902 in 2022 to 21,041 by November 2025, with a significant portion of stores located in county and town areas. The company achieved a GMV of RMB 555 billion in 2024 and RMB 661 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, marking year-on-year increases of 262% and 74% respectively [7][15]. Store Expansion and Performance - The company continues to expand its store network, primarily through franchising. The average daily order volume per store has increased from 385 in 2022 to 481 in the first three quarters of 2025, with total orders reaching 2.129 billion, a 97.3% increase year-on-year. The average GMV per store is also on the rise, with the company maintaining a low closure rate for franchise stores [21][37]. Financial Performance - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth, with revenues of RMB 393.4 billion and RMB 463.7 billion for 2024 and the first three quarters of 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 282% and 75%. The net profit for the same periods reached RMB 8.29 billion and RMB 15.59 billion, with adjusted profits showing similar growth [43][44]. Profitability Metrics - The company's net profit margin improved from 1.67% in 2022 to 3.36% in the first three quarters of 2025, while the adjusted net profit margin rose from 1.90% to 3.90%. The gross margin also increased from 7.45% to 9.73% during the same period, indicating enhanced profitability [44][50]. Future Projections - The report outlines optimistic projections for the company's financial performance, with significant revenue and profit growth anticipated through 2027. The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 10.68, RMB 15.88, and RMB 19.88 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [56][57].

Market Overview - The recent report indicates that the U.S. private sector added only 22,000 jobs in January, significantly below market expectations, while initial jobless claims rose to 231,000, exceeding both market forecasts and previous values, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - Job vacancies in December fell to the lowest level since 2020, and the number of layoffs reached the highest level for January since the severe recession in 2009, contributing to a pessimistic market sentiment [1] - The Nasdaq experienced its worst three-day sell-off since April of the previous year, with the S&P 500 seeing declines in 318 of its stocks, reflecting a broad market sell-off [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the recent market downturn, attributing it to the lack of significant inflation despite prolonged tariff impacts, which supports the Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates [2] - The optimistic narrative surrounding the economic foundation and the rise of AI infrastructure has shifted due to frequent negative events, leading to concerns about the potential disruption of traditional industries and the value of hardware [2] - The report outlines three key viewpoints regarding the current state of the U.S. stock market: 1. The long-term trend of AI may continue, but it has entered a phase of elimination, necessitating attention to the intensifying competition [2] 2. Economic resilience is expected to support corporate profits, with a focus on how AI productivity will impact economic structure [2] 3. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue lowering interest rates, with attention on the monetary policy trajectory under the hawkish nomination of Walsh [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Add" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook relative to the market index [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a total revenue of 1.825 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.82%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 197 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.77% [1]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by increased sales of civil explosives, while the substantial profit growth is attributed to higher sales and improved profitability in transportation and chip modules [1]. - The company is set to benefit from the ongoing demand for civil explosives in the Tibet region, with a projected production value growth of 40.70% in 2025 [6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 1.825 billion yuan for 2025, with a quarterly revenue of 564 million yuan in Q4 2025, showing an 8.48% year-on-year increase. The net profit for Q4 2025 is expected to be 71 million yuan, marking an impressive growth of 89.53% [1]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 includes revenues of 1.825 billion yuan, 2.381 billion yuan, and 3.223 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 7.82%, 30.53%, and 35.33% [7]. Strategic Developments - The company plans to acquire 100% of an overseas civil explosive company, which will double its overall explosive production capacity to 53,000 tons. The acquisition is valued at 510 million yuan [6]. - The company is positioned to leverage the ongoing infrastructure projects in Tibet, which are expected to drive demand for civil explosives significantly [6]. Market Position - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 10.015 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 9.977 billion yuan. The stock has shown a 52-week increase of 56.56% [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [2]. Core Insights - Indonesia's resource nationalism is intensifying, with the government tightening mining policies to increase fiscal revenue amid significant budget deficits. This includes controlling RKAB supply, adjusting HPM pricing formulas, and conducting antitrust investigations to establish a global pricing system based on Indonesian mineral costs [4][10]. - The depletion of high-grade nickel resources is prompting a policy shift towards protecting reserves. The government has stopped approving new RKEF projects and is expected to favor low-grade nickel resources, aligning with the needs of the new energy industry [4][10]. - A significant reduction in RKAB quotas is anticipated for 2026, with estimates suggesting a drop to 250-260 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025, potentially leading to a supply gap of 40-50 million wet tons [4][10]. - The HPM pricing formula may be revised, which could increase costs for wet processing projects significantly, thereby raising the global marginal cost line for nickel products [4][10]. - The report suggests monitoring the implementation of Indonesian policies and recommends focusing on companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Liqin Resources, and Zhongwei New Materials [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Progression of Resource Nationalism - The Indonesian government is tightening RKAB quotas, signaling a reduction to 250-260 million tons for 2026, a 34% decrease from 2025 [10]. - The government is enhancing scrutiny of monopolistic risks in the Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) and may adjust the HPM pricing formula to include by-products like cobalt [10][10]. 2. Supply-Side Changes - The report highlights the shift in focus from high-grade nickel to low-grade nickel due to the depletion of high-grade resources, with a projected supply gap in 2026 [4][10]. - The anticipated changes in RKAB quotas and HPM pricing are expected to create a structural shift in the industry, impacting supply and pricing dynamics [4][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to keep an eye on the specific implementation of Indonesian policies and suggests companies that may benefit from these changes [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for commodity prices, particularly in the context of copper and aluminum, with expectations of continued strength in these markets [7][8]. - It emphasizes the resilience of copper prices, which have shown a week-on-week increase, indicating a tight supply situation [7]. - The report notes that the steel industry is seeing price adjustments from southern steel mills, which may lead to improved profit margins [8]. Summary by Sections Copper - Copper prices remain resilient, with LME and SHFE copper prices recorded at 133,370 and 103,680 USD/ton respectively, showing week-on-week increases of 3.5% and 2.3% [7]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resource reserves such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [11]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is expected to maintain its resilience, with LME and SHFE aluminum prices at 3,110 and 24,560 USD/ton, respectively [7]. - Recommended companies include Shenhuo Group, Yun Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Nanshan Aluminum [11]. Precious Metals - The report indicates that precious metals have experienced volatility, with SHFE gold and COMEX gold prices at 1,161.4 CNY/gram and 4,907.5 USD/ounce, respectively [7]. - It suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Gold International, Shandong Gold, and China National Gold for potential investment opportunities [11]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have increased by 12.3% week-on-week, with significant price adjustments noted in the tungsten sector [7]. - The report recommends focusing on rare earth companies such as Northern Rare Earth and China Rare Earth, as well as tungsten companies like Zhongtung High-tech and Xiamen Tungsten [11]. Steel - The steel industry is seeing proactive price increases from southern steel mills, with SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices at 3,128 and 3,288 CNY/ton, respectively [8]. - Companies to watch include Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, particularly those with superior product structures [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strategic shift among mainland real estate companies from development to commercial operations, with firms like China Resources Land and Joy City expected to benefit from this transition [9][41]. - The report categorizes real estate companies based on their rental income performance, identifying three distinct groups: those with stable growth, those with slight fluctuations, and those experiencing significant declines [21][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Differences in Commercial and Development Ratios Among Companies - Mainland real estate firms are adopting a "development + commercial" dual-driven model, with companies like New Town Holdings and Longfor Group transitioning towards commercial operations [14]. - Hong Kong-backed firms prefer a purer commercial operation model, focusing on quality over quantity in their projects [14]. 2. Comparison of Commercial Real Estate Operational Efficiency - Hong Kong-backed firms generally have fewer but higher-quality commercial projects, leading to better rental yields and resilience in occupancy rates compared to mainland firms [35]. - China Resources Land leads in shopping center rental efficiency due to its strategic positioning in major cities [35]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on mainland firms that are transitioning to commercial operations, particularly those benefiting from the rollout of commercial real estate REITs, such as China Resources Land and Joy City [41]. - It also recommends defensive stocks with high asset quality and competitive dividend yields, including Swire Properties, Kerry Properties, and Hang Lung Properties [41].