有色金属 行业研究/行业点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 点 评 政策制定详实且实施有望加快，利好金属需求 ——《关于加力支持大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》点评 ◼ 事件 2024 年 7 月 24 日，国家发改委印发《关于加力支持大规模设备更新 和消费品以旧换新的若干措施》（简称"措施"）的通知。主要内容： 现统筹安排 3000 亿元左右超长期特别国债资金，加力支持大规模设 备更新和消费品以旧换新，涉及领域为设备更新（涉及营运船舶、营 运货车、农业机械、新能源公交车及动力电池）、消费品以旧换新（涉 及汽车、家电及电器电子领域）。 ◼ 点评 此次"措施"为今年 3 月发布的《推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧 换新行动方案》的具体执行方案，我们认为对终端领域是明确利好， 将带动原材料需求向好，主要体现在以下几个方面： 1， 具体"措施"包括两大方面，即加大设备更新支持力度和加力支 持消费品以旧换新，明确利好大型设备更新，及终端领域（船舶、 汽车、农机、家电）的需求提振，进而带动相关领域原材料需求向 好。文件详细规定了船舶、农机、汽车、家电等终端产品更新/报 废/以旧换新的补贴标准， ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 电子 行业研究/行业周报 A 亚马逊自研 AI 芯片性能出色，长电晶圆级制造项目 将投产 ——电子行业周报（2024.07.22-2024.07.26） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 被动元件：村田、TDK 等被动元件一线厂部分产品或将涨价，被动 元件产业链有望受益。被动元件一线大厂包括村田、TDK 等，有望 调升积层式电感／磁珠报价，预期大尺寸会先涨价，涨幅约 10%至 20%。我们认为，随着智能手机旺季即将到来叠加 PC 市场复苏，或 将驱动被动元件价格上涨，国内被动元件厂商有望持续受益。 算力芯片：亚马逊自研 Graviton4 AI 芯片实测性能出色，算力芯片 产业链有望持续收益。亚马逊上线基于自研芯片 Graviton4 的Amazon EC2 R8g 实例，性能出色。Graviton4 略优于英特尔至强处理器约 5%。我们认为，AI 推动算力需求攀升，相关产业链有望持续受益。 苹果产业链：苹果专利探索折叠屏角度传感器设计，深圳应用研究 实验室即将投入运行，相关产业链有望长期受益。苹果公司获得折 叠屏相关的专利，未来可用于折叠 iP ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 通信 行业研究/行业周报 A 6 月移动运营数据整体稳健，马斯克 xAI 旗下超算启 用 ——通信行业周报（2024.7.22-2024.7.26） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 运营商：6 月移动运营数据整体稳健。据通信世界整理报道，三大运 营商于近日披露 2024 年 6 月运营数据。其中，中国移动移动业务客 户总数达 10 亿户，本月净增 181.6 万户。中国电信移动用户数净增 147 万户；当月 5G 套餐用户净增 237 万。中国联通"大联接"用户 累计达 10.65692亿户，5G套餐用户累计达 27615.0万户。我们认为， 三大运营商 6 月移动用户均有所增长，体现运营商在 5G 投资周期整 体进入平稳背景下业务仍保持稳健向上趋势，业务经营持续改善。 光通信：马斯克 xAI 旗下全球最大超算启用。据财联社 7 月 23 日消 息，美国企业家埃隆·马斯克在X上最新发帖，称已启动了"世界上 最强大的人工智能训练集群"，并且他将利用这一集群在今年 12 月之 前创建一个自称为"世界上最强大的人工智能"。"孟菲斯超级集群" 由 10 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 传媒 行业研究/行业周报 A 广东试点无版号游戏测试，智谱上线 AI 生成视频模 型 ——传媒行业周报（2024.07.22 -2024.07.26） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 游戏：广东试点无版号游戏测试。据 IT 之家 7 月 25 消息，据广东 省游戏产业协会 7 月 5 日提出，广东省新闻出版局即日起开展省内出 版网络游戏 App 测试备案工作。我们认为，无版号游戏测试试点政 策的展开，以及 7 月游戏版号的落地，有望推动游戏厂商提升产品研 发实力及商业化变现效率。相关公司有望受益。 AI 应用：智谱上线 AI 生成视频模型清影。据财新网 7 月 26 日报 道，智谱 AI 在当日对外发布了视频生成功能"清影"，并上线智谱 清言 APP，面向所有用户开放。"清影"包括文生视频、图生视频两 个核心功能，智谱 AI 称输入完成后只需等待 30 秒，就能生成最长达 6 秒，3:2 的比例、1440*960 清晰度的视频。我们认为，包括智谱在 内的越来越多模型厂商涉足视频生成应用服务，视频方向的 AI 应用 发展将日趋成熟，相关 AI 内 ...

石油石化 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 市场担忧需求前景，油价有所回调 ——石油化工行业周报（20240722-20240726） ◼ 市场行情回顾 板块表现 本周（20240722-20240726）中信石油石化板块下滑约 4.39%，上证综 合指数下滑约 3.07%，同上证综合指数相比，石油石化板块落后约 1.3 个百分点。子板块方面，石油石化子板块涨跌互现，其中油品销售及 仓储、炼油等子板块涨幅居前。 本周（20240722-20240726）石油石化板块领涨个股包括润贝航科、恒 通股份、岳阳兴长、博汇股份、胜通能源等；领跌个股包括恒逸石化、 新凤鸣、荣盛石化、中国海油、中国石油等。其中民营大炼化公司周 度涨跌幅如下：东方盛虹（-3.03%）、桐昆股份（-5.2%）、恒力石化（- 6.96%）、荣盛石化（-9.11%）、新凤鸣（-9.49%）、恒逸石化（-10.22%）、 等。 ◼ 核心观点 上游板块方面，上周国际油价小幅下滑。从周度数据以及 EIA 短期展 望数据来看，尽管未来两年美国原油产量维持增长，但是国际油价重 心仍有望维持在相对高位，持续利好上游油 ...

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 汽车报废更新补贴出台，有望为车市带来增量 ——汽车行业周报（2024/07/22~2024/07/26） ◼ 行情回顾 过去一周(2024/07/22~2024/07/26），申万汽车行业下跌 1.80%，表现 强于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 12。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2024/07/22~2024/07/26），商用车涨幅最大，乘用车跌 幅最大。商用车上涨 3.82%，摩托车及其他上涨 1.18%，汽车服务下 跌 0.13%，汽车零部件下跌 2.23%，乘用车下跌 2.90%。 ◼ 核心数据 数据跟踪： 1）行业总量：据中汽协数据，2024 年 6 月汽车销量约 255.2 万辆， 环比+5.6%，同比-2.7%。 2）车企端：据乘联会数据，2024 年 6 月，比亚迪、一汽大众和吉利 零售销量位列前三，分别约 28.0、13.3 和 13.1 万辆，份额分别约为 15.9%、7.5%和 7.4%。其中奇瑞汽车同比+53.6%。 3）周度数据： 据乘联会数据，2024 年 7 月 1-21 日，乘用车市场 ...

中小市值 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 工信部提议加快发展新质生产力，关注商业航天、人工智能产业 —新兴产业周报（2024.07.22~2024.07.26） 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 核心观点 新质生产力：（1）工信部主管部门负责同志座谈会提及加快发展新质 生产力。财联社 7 月 26 日电，全国工业和信息化主管部门负责同志座 谈会 7 月 26 日在京召开。会议提出，要加快培育新支柱新赛道，抢抓 新一轮科技革命和产业变革机遇，聚焦智能网联汽车、新材料、生物制 造、氢能、人形机器人、元宇宙、脑机接口、量子信息、低空经济、商 业航天等领域精准发力，加快发展新质生产力。我们认为，发展新质生 产力有利于推动科技产业加速发展，并有望促进低空经济、商业航天等 新兴产业落地。 商业航天、卫星互联网：（1）中共中央：深化国防科技工业体制改革， 改进武器装备采购制度。财联社 7 月 21 日电，《中共中央关于进一步 全面深化改革，推进中国式现代化的决定》提到，深化跨军地改革。健 全一体化国家战略体系和能力建设工作机制，完善涉军决策议事协调体 制机制。健全国防建设军事需求提报和军地对接机制，完善国防动 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - In June 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.0% year-on-year, with food and oil products showing significant resilience [1] - The food and beverage sector demonstrated strong performance, with essential consumption categories performing relatively well [1] - The restaurant sector continues its recovery, with online food sales showing impressive growth [1] Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In June 2024, the total retail sales reached 40,732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%. Excluding automobiles, the retail sales amounted to 36,364 billion yuan, up by 3.0% [1] - For the first half of 2024, total retail sales were 235,969 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [1] - The breakdown shows urban retail sales at 204,559 billion yuan (+3.6% YoY) and rural retail sales at 31,410 billion yuan (+4.5% YoY) [1] Consumption Categories - In June 2024, retail sales of goods were 36,123 billion yuan (+1.5% YoY), while restaurant income was 4,609 billion yuan (+5.4% YoY) [1] - For the first half of 2024, retail sales of goods totaled 209,726 billion yuan (+3.2% YoY), and restaurant income reached 26,243 billion yuan (+7.9% YoY) [1] Sector Recovery and Investment Suggestions - The restaurant sector's income in June 2024 was 4,609 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, indicating ongoing recovery [1] - The report suggests that the recovery in the restaurant industry may drive upstream supply chain replenishment, recommending attention to restaurant supply chain opportunities and strong beverage brands [1] - Specific stock recommendations include Anjijia Food, with a focus on Dongpeng Beverage and Qianwei Central Kitchen [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the compound fertilizer industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing an upward trend in demand due to stricter policies and supply disruptions, leading to increased industry concentration [2][3] - The long-term demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve, driven by food security concerns and an increase in the compound fertilizer application rate [3][20] - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock is likely to continue, benefiting leading companies with resource and scale advantages [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Tightening and Supply Disruptions - The compound fertilizer industry is crucial for national food security, with most domestic companies being small and facing severe product homogeneity [2][15] - The industry concentration is expected to increase as outdated production capacity exits the market due to tightening safety and environmental regulations [15][19] - The effective production capacity of compound fertilizers in 2023 is approximately 140 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 2% [15] 2. Long-term Demand for Compound Fertilizers - Global crop planting areas are expected to remain stable or increase, supporting fertilizer demand [21] - The compound fertilizer application rate in China has risen from 22% in 2000 to 47% in 2022, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries [20][22] - The demand for compound fertilizers is expected to grow due to the increasing proportion of economic crops, which require higher fertilizer quality and quantity [24] 3. Integration of Upstream Phosphate Resources - The acquisition of phosphate rock resources is beneficial for cost control and industry synergy for compound fertilizer companies [3][30] - The average grade of phosphate rock in China is about 17%, significantly lower than that of major producing countries like Morocco [32] - The domestic phosphate rock production is projected to decline, with a nearly 38% decrease from its peak in 2017 due to ongoing environmental regulations [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the compound fertilizer industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing an upward trend due to stricter policies and supply disruptions, leading to increased industry concentration. The stable development of the fertilizer industry is directly related to national food security [2][3]. - The demand for compound fertilizers is expected to remain strong in the long term, driven by food security concerns and an increasing compound fertilizer application rate, which has risen from 22% in 2000 to 47% in 2022, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][3]. - The integration of upstream phosphate resources is anticipated to enhance cost control and industrial synergy for fertilizer companies, with a focus on companies like Yuntu Holdings, Yuntianhua, and Xinyangfeng [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Tightening and Supply Disruptions - The compound fertilizer industry is characterized by low concentration, with over 3,000 companies holding production licenses, most of which are small and face severe product homogeneity. The CR5 and CR10 for the industry are approximately 14% and 37% respectively in 2023 [2][14]. - Stricter environmental regulations and policies aimed at reducing fertilizer usage are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, thereby increasing industry concentration [14][16]. 2. Long-term Demand for Compound Fertilizers - Global crop planting areas are expected to stabilize or increase, supporting fertilizer demand. The Chinese government continues to emphasize food security, which is crucial for maintaining stable planting areas [20][21]. - The compound fertilizer application rate in China has significant growth potential, with the current rate at 47%, compared to 70%-80% in developed countries. This indicates a long-term upward trend in demand for compound fertilizers [20][22]. 3. Price Trends and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The price of compound fertilizers is influenced by the costs of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, which account for about 90% of production costs. Recent trends show a rebound in prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics [27][29]. - The phosphate supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with the price index for monoammonium phosphate increasing by approximately 36% year-on-year as of June 28, 2024 [27][31]. 4. Integration of Upstream Phosphate Resources - The report highlights the importance of securing phosphate resources for cost control and industry development. China's phosphate reserves are concentrated in a few provinces, with a low average grade of 17% [31][33]. - The "Three Phosphorus" rectification policies and stricter environmental regulations are expected to reduce the supply of phosphate rock, further impacting the industry [33].