固定收益/固收点评 信贷投放有待回暖 ——4 月社融数据点评 ◼ 核心观点 事件：2025 年 5 月 15 日，央行公布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据：广义 货币 M2 同比增长 8.00%；狭义货币 M1 同比增长 1.50%。2025 年 4 月末社会融资规模存量同比增长 8.7%；2025 年前四个月社会融资规 模增量累计为 16.34 万亿元，比上年同期多 3.61 万亿元。 存量财政政策加速落地，政府融资支持 4 月社融数据增长。4 月社融 同比增速为 8.70%；新增社融初值为 11,585.00 亿元。其中 4 月政府债 券净融资 9,762 亿元，较上年同期多增 10,699 亿元，有力的支撑了社 融规模增长。政府融资是带动新增社融同比多增的重要因素，体现出 政府加杠杆的托底作用；社融结构上的变化体现了财政的支持力度保 持，得益于近期财政存量政策加速落地，我们认为其有望为二季度经 济的稳定增长奠定基调，具体增长结构或还需要针对性发力。4 月社 融口径下信贷乏力：新增人民币贷款 844 亿元，比上年同期少增 2,465 亿元。直接融资方面：4 月企业债净融资增加。非标方面：4 月新增非 标 ...

短债收益率回落，融资加码科技 ——流动性 5 月第 1 期 ◼ 内容要点 策略研究/策略周报 上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行；美国 2 年期、 10 年国债收益率继续上行，美元指数回升，中美 10 年国债利差边际 扩大；上周融资买入额回升，南向资金流小幅净流入。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（5.5-5.9），2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行，10 年期 与 2 年期国债利差扩大。上周央行公开市场净回笼 7817 亿元，MLF 净回笼 1250 亿元。 国外：上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期、10 年期美债收益率继续上行，美元指 数上行，中美 10 年期国债利差边际扩大。上周 10 年期美债收益率上 行至 4.37%，美元指数升至 100.42。截至 5 月 9 日，中美 10 年期国债 利差扩大至-2.73%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2025 年 5 月新成立 15 只基金，其中 13 只为股票型基金。 截至 5 月 9 日，2025 年 5 月新成立基金 15 只，24 年 5 月为 94 只； 其中，5 月新成立股票型基金 13 只，发行总额约 58 亿份。 ETF ...

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

农林牧渔 行业研究/行业周报 猪价震荡偏弱，豆粕价格回落 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250506-0509） ◼ 核心观点 行情复盘： 【农产品】小麦、稻、玉米价格偏强，豆粕价格回落。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日，全国小麦现货均价 2460.67 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日上涨 0.19%；全国粳稻现货均价 2864.00 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日上涨 0.21%；全国玉米现货均价 2292.86 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日上涨 1.78%；全国豆粕现货均价 3300.00 元/吨，较 2025 年 4 月 30 日下跌 5.08%。 ◼ 投资建议 首次覆盖农林牧渔行业，给予"增持"评级。我们认为，农业板块作 为典型的必选消费品类，具备相对稳定的需求和政策的大力支持，在 当前复杂多变的外部环境下，农业板块或成为资金避险的重要选择。 同时从产业周期来看，当前主要的肉类蛋白、农产品价格大多处于筑 底回升的阶段，优质的细分行业龙头有望实现业绩的持续稳定增长， 板块攻守兼备，故给予"增持"评级。 【生猪养殖】低成本是上市猪企穿越猪周期的核心竞争力，重点看好 成本 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy, and bond yields are expected to break through previous lows. The RMB exchange rate has shown a short - term strengthening trend due to factors such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade relations, the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic economic recovery, and risk - aversion sentiment. The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate may trigger a bond market rally in May, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that investors seize the rhythm, with trading accounts adding positions on adjustments and allocation accounts paying attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds 1.1 Liquidity Observation From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 199.98 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 124.48 billion yuan under the full - caliber. Inter - bank capital prices mostly increased, with DR001 rising 18.29BP to 1.7853% and DR007 rising 7.87BP to 1.7986%. Exchange - traded capital prices showed mixed trends [1][15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 135.092 billion yuan, with a net financing of 134.697 billion yuan. Treasury bonds were not issued, policy - based financial bonds raised 42 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, raising 93.092 billion yuan [1][24]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most Treasury bond spot yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.98BP to 1.4599%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bond yields declined 4.26BP, 2.70BP, 3.52BP, and 3.63BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 21.05BP to 16.44BP. The spot yields of China Development Bank bonds also declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 12.77BP to 9.35BP [1][30]. 2. Credit Bonds 2.1 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased. A total of 443 new credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 460.695 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 135 billion yuan. The net financing was - 208.918 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. In terms of bond ratings, AAA - rated bonds accounted for 55.99% of the total issuance. Credit bond issuance was mainly within 1 year. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][41]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most of the maturity yields of urban investment bonds declined, with the 10 - year AA - rated bonds having the largest decline of 4.96BP. Most of the maturity yields of medium - and short - term notes also declined, with the 10 - year AAA, AA +, and AA - rated notes having the largest decline of 3.49BP [2][52]. 2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [54]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Overall Rise of European and American Stock Indices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the three major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3.00%, the S&P 500 rising 2.92%, and the Nasdaq rising 3.42%. European stock indices also rose, with the German DAX rising 3.80%, the French CAC40 rising 3.11%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 2.15%. Most Asia - Pacific stock indices rose, except for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Russian Index [3][55]. 3.2 Overall Rise of US Treasury Yields From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the yields of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 4.00BP, 5.00BP, and 4.00BP respectively [3][57]. 3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies The US dollar index rose 0.46% week - on - week, and non - US currencies weakened. The pound sterling, euro, and yen against the US dollar all declined, while the US dollar against the RMB declined 0.07% [3][61]. 3.4 Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the prices of crude oil and gold declined. The COMEX gold futures price fell 1.44%, and the London spot gold price fell 0.84%. The Brent crude oil price fell 8.34%, and the WTI crude oil price fell 7.51% [3][63]. 4. Investment Suggestions The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy. In May, the central bank's simultaneous implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may trigger a bond market rally. The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that trading accounts add positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the oil and petrochemical sector [5] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have seen a decline recently, with Brent crude settling at approximately $61.29 per barrel, down about 6.94% week-on-week and approximately 19.24% year-to-date. WTI crude settled at about $58.29 per barrel, down about 6.06% week-on-week and approximately 17.18% year-to-date [22][23] - The upstream sector is expected to benefit from a stable high price range for international oil, which is favorable for upstream oil and gas companies [29] - The midstream refining sector shows potential for performance recovery, with significant increases in price spreads for various refined products [34] - The polyester terminal sector indicates a recovery potential for long filament enterprises due to inventory declines and widening price spreads [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 0.25% during the week of April 28 to April 30, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by about 0.49%, indicating a relative outperformance of 0.24 percentage points [16] - Leading stocks included Guangju Energy (+8.07%), Compton (+7.32%), and Shenyang Chemical (+5.25%), while laggards included Hongtian Co. (-15.65%) and ST Haiyue (-7.33%) [20][21] Upstream Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America has decreased week-on-week, with a more significant year-on-year decline. However, global drilling platform numbers are expected to have room for growth [30] - EIA forecasts indicate that U.S. crude oil production will maintain growth, reaching 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025 [31] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by approximately 63 yuan/ton and 56 yuan/ton, respectively [34] - The price spreads for diesel and gasoline in Singapore have widened, indicating a potential recovery for refining companies [34] Polyester Terminal Sector - As of May 4, the POY price spread was approximately 1,081 yuan/ton, with overall inventory levels declining [42] - The polyester bottle chip market price increased to approximately 5,733 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for recovery in this segment [48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Focus on energy state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for their efforts in oil and gas exploration and green transformation [55] 2. Attention to oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to rising global upstream capital expenditures [55] 3. Investment in companies like Baofeng Energy and New Natural Gas, driven by energy security and policy support [55] 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical for new capacity planning and material project layouts [55]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial industry [6] Core Insights - The public fund commission income is expected to decline significantly due to fee rate reductions and the passive nature of equity public funds, with a forecast of 79 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 28% year-on-year decrease [2][30] - The commission income for the securities industry in 2024 is projected to be 107.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of commission rate reductions [1][17] - The increasing proportion of passive equity funds is leading to a decrease in trading turnover rates, which is further contributing to the decline in commission income [2][25] Summary by Sections 1. Development Trends - The public fund commission rate dropped to 0.037% in the second half of 2024, a significant decline of 48.7% year-on-year [21][23] - The growth of equity funds in 2024 is primarily driven by passive stock funds, which increased their share from one-third at the end of 2023 to nearly half by the end of 2024 [2][30] - The trading volume of public funds decreased by 8% in 2024, contrasting with a 21% increase in overall market trading volume [25] 2. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of commission income among securities firms is rebounding in 2024 after a decline from 2020 to 2023, attributed to industry consolidation and new regulations separating commission from sales capabilities [3][33] - The average commission distribution ratio for 12 securities firms fell from 23.5% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2024 due to new regulations [3][37] - The number of licensed analysts in the industry increased by 20% in 2024, reaching a total of 5,563 [2][43] 3. Public Fund Perspective - The top three fund companies contributing to commission income in 2024 were E Fund, Fuguo, and GF Fund, accounting for nearly 70% of the total commission [4] - The scale of fund settlement models reached 1.1 trillion yuan by April 2025, representing 3.4% of all public funds [4] - Fund companies have disclosed their criteria for selecting securities firms, emphasizing the importance of strong research capabilities [4][5] 4. Response Strategies - Securities firms are encouraged to diversify their income sources and enhance the strategic role of their research departments [5] - Non-public institution commission rates are not affected by new regulations, with a 10% year-on-year increase in commission income from non-public institutions for leading firms [5] - The development model of research departments should shift from a commission-for-research model to a more comprehensive research approach [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has significantly increased its market share in SLC NAND sales, with a notable year-on-year growth in sales volumes of NAND, NOR, and DRAM chips by 61.79%, 16.80%, and 20.79% respectively [2] - The demand for large-capacity SLC NAND has been driven by the growth in network communication, particularly in base stations, as well as the recovery in demand for consumer electronics and security applications [2] - The rapid development of AI terminals is expected to accelerate the demand for niche storage solutions, benefiting the company as it focuses on small-capacity storage chips [3] - The company has successfully completed the first wafer processing of its first-generation GPU chip, which aims to address key issues in the domestic GPU architecture [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 641 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.80%, but reported a net loss of 167 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.90%, with a net loss of 59 million yuan [1] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be -131 million yuan, 3 million yuan, and 177 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.30, 0.01, and 0.40 yuan [4][6] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the storage cycle, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and price, alongside accelerated domestic substitution and enhanced product advantages [4] - The integration of storage, computing, and networking is anticipated to further open up growth opportunities for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is transitioning between old and new growth drivers, with the intelligent manufacturing sector showing strong performance. The ERP segment generated revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, down 5.67% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the digital construction cycle of some core clients. In contrast, the intelligent manufacturing and industrial IoT segments achieved revenue of 990 million yuan, up 19.33% year-on-year, driven by increased market expansion efforts, enhanced product capabilities, and support from domestic policies [2][3] - The company provides comprehensive AI services, addressing the challenges of data fragmentation and complex business logic in industrial scenarios. It connects model vendors to clients, offering high-value products and services. The company has developed an enterprise-level AI platform, "Shanmo GPT," facilitating rapid deployment and effective implementation of AI applications [2] - The company has successfully established a commercial closed loop in the PCB industry, leveraging self-developed AI models to significantly enhance operational efficiency for clients. Orders from PCB industry clients increased by 35% year-on-year, with AI model orders exceeding 13 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 139 million yuan, down 45.21%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 490 million yuan, down 9.37%, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, up 20.29% [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.727 billion yuan, 3.187 billion yuan, and 3.781 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 16.8%, and 18.6%, respectively. EPS for the same period is expected to be 0.54 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.77 yuan [4][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market benchmark [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.251 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 21.38%, and a net profit of 583 million yuan, which is a 29.89% increase [2][3]. - The geographical information segment showed impressive growth, with a revenue increase of 38.44%, while the resource and public utility sector also contributed significantly with a 26.41% growth [3]. - The overseas market is a key growth driver, with international revenue reaching 937.63 million yuan, up 30.39% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 77.60% compared to 50.24% for domestic operations [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 789 million yuan, marking a 27.91% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 143 million yuan, up 38.5% [2][4]. - The company aims for a net profit of 730 million yuan in 2025, which would represent a growth of approximately 25% from the previous year [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are approximately 745 million yuan, 953 million yuan, and 1.221 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 31.40, 24.53, and 19.14 [5][7]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is positioned as a leader in the Beidou high-precision positioning application industry, with a focus on expanding its overseas market presence while meeting domestic demand [5][4].