非银金融 行业研究/行业周报 低配券商板块或迎公募资金重配置机会 ——券商&资本市场周观察（2025.5.12-2025.5.16） ◼ 市场要闻 1. 中国证监会修改《上市公司重大资产重组管理办法》，深化上市公司 并购重组市场改革；2. 首批 26 只上报浮动费率基金主要对标沪深 300、 中证 A500、500、800 等主流宽基指数。 ◼ 数据跟踪 本周证券(申万)指数上涨 2.18%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 1.07pct。红塔证券 （+13.84%）、锦龙股份（+13.18%）、广发证券（+6.09%）领涨。券商 ETF 本周环比-8.9 亿份，今年以来累计流入资金 36.7 亿元。截至 2025/5/16，证券(申万)指数 PB1.27X，位于近 5 年由低至高 38%分位。 1）交投：本周 A 股日均成交额 12663 亿元，环比-6.4%，本年 A 股日 均成交额 14336 亿元，同比+58.8%。 2）两融：截止 2025/5/15，A 股两融余额 18085 亿元，其中融资余额 17967 亿元，融券余额 118 亿元，环比分别+44.9、+42.9、+2.0 亿元。 年内日均两融余额同 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On May 15, 2025, the central bank announced the financial statistics for April 2025. M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year. The stock of social financing scale at the end of April 2025 increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [1][12]. - The accelerated implementation of existing fiscal policies and government financing supported the growth of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, and the initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][13]. - The low base and capital re - flow drove the rebound of M2 growth. At the end of April, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 rebounded by 1.0 percentage point compared with the previous value. The year - on - year growth rate of M1 was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating weak corporate investment willingness [3][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Government Financing Supports the Stable Growth of Social Financing - The implementation of existing fiscal policies accelerated, and government financing supported the significant rebound of April's social financing data. The year - on - year growth rate of social financing in April was 8.70%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous value. The initial value of new social financing was 115.85 billion yuan, 135.72 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Government bond net financing in April was 97.62 billion yuan, 106.99 billion yuan more than the same period last year [13]. - Credit in the social financing caliber in April was weak. New RMB loans were 8.44 billion yuan, 24.65 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Direct financing: corporate bond net financing increased by 23.4 billion yuan in April, 6.33 billion yuan more than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise domestic stock financing was 3.92 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Non - standard financing: new non - standard financing decreased by 28.73 billion yuan in April, 13.86 billion yuan less than the same period last year [13]. - New RMB loans in the financial institution caliber in April were 28 billion yuan, 45 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Corporate department: corporate loans increased by 61 billion yuan, 25 billion yuan less than the same period last year. Resident department: resident loans decreased by 52.16 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan more than the same period last year [2][14]. 3.2 Low Base and Capital Re - flow Drive the Rebound of M2 Growth - At the end of April, M2 increased by 8.00% year - on - year, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The low base caused by the rectification of "manual interest compensation" and "squeezing water" in financial data last year, combined with the acceleration of deposit creation by government financing and the reduction of capital re - flow to wealth management products, pushed up the year - on - year growth rate of M2. M1 increased by 1.50% year - on - year, 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous value, indicating that corporate investment willingness needs to be improved. The M1 - M2 gap was negative, and the absolute value widened to 6.50 pct [23]. - In terms of deposit structure, non - bank deposits increased significantly year - on - year. Household deposits decreased by 139 billion yuan in April, 46 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - financial enterprise deposits decreased by 132.97 billion yuan, 54.28 billion yuan less than the same period last year; non - banking financial institution deposits increased by 157.1 billion yuan, 190.1 billion yuan more than the same period last year; fiscal deposits increased by 37.1 billion yuan, 27.29 billion yuan more than the same period last year [3][23]. 3.3 Investment Advice - Credit supply needs to pick up. The social financing data in April verified the policy effect of the front - loaded fiscal policy. Government bonds became the core source of increment, and the credit structure may reflect the strengthened support for key areas of the real economy. Although the credit growth rate may be disturbed by debt replacement in the short term, the supporting role of finance in the economy will continue to appear under the synergistic effect of policies [4][30]. - April is a traditional "low - credit month", and combined with the uncertainty of foreign trade, credit demand may be under pressure in the short term. However, a package of financial policies introduced in May is expected to boost confidence. In the future, attention should be paid to the issuance rhythm of special treasury bonds and the marginal impact of changes in the foreign trade environment on the demand side. The central bank's monetary policy focus has shifted from "responding to shocks" to "structural breakthroughs" [4][30]. - There is adjustment pressure in the short - term bond market, and the yield curve of bonds becomes steeper. It is recommended that investors grasp the rhythm, trading accounts increase positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to the opportunity to intervene when the supply of local bonds increases [4][30].

短债收益率回落，融资加码科技 ——流动性 5 月第 1 期 ◼ 内容要点 策略研究/策略周报 上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行；美国 2 年期、 10 年国债收益率继续上行，美元指数回升，中美 10 年国债利差边际 扩大；上周融资买入额回升，南向资金流小幅净流入。 ◼ 宏观流动性 国内：上周（5.5-5.9），2 年期国债收益率下行、10 年期上行，10 年期 与 2 年期国债利差扩大。上周央行公开市场净回笼 7817 亿元，MLF 净回笼 1250 亿元。 国外：上周（5.5-5.9）2 年期、10 年期美债收益率继续上行，美元指 数上行，中美 10 年期国债利差边际扩大。上周 10 年期美债收益率上 行至 4.37%，美元指数升至 100.42。截至 5 月 9 日，中美 10 年期国债 利差扩大至-2.73%。 ◼ 市场流动性 公募基金：2025 年 5 月新成立 15 只基金，其中 13 只为股票型基金。 截至 5 月 9 日，2025 年 5 月新成立基金 15 只，24 年 5 月为 94 只； 其中，5 月新成立股票型基金 13 只，发行总额约 58 亿份。 ETF ...

固定收益/固收周报 短期债市调整压力增加 ——固收周报（2025.05.05-2025.05.09） 利率债：国债收益率多数下行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 05 月 02 日- 2025 年 05 月 09 日期间，央行总计开展 8,361.00 亿元逆回购操作，共 16,178.00亿元逆回购到期，全口径下净回笼 7,817.00亿元。银行间资 金价格整体下行，其中，DR001 下行 29.45BP 至 1.4908%；DR007 下 行 25.77BP 至 1.5409%。利率债一级市场发行 5,785.79 亿元，净融资 额为 2,352.91 亿元。国债 10 年期上行 1.08BP 至 1.6351%，1 年期、3 年期 、5 年期、7 年期国债收益率分别下行 4.05BP、1.33BP、 2.06BP、0.86BP 至 1.4194%、1.4633%、1.4957%、1.5720%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 16.44BP 走阔至 21.57BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率整体下行：2025 年 05 月 05 日-2025 年 05 月 11日期间，信用债发行规模增加，其中信用债一级市场新发行 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage of the agriculture sector with an "Overweight" rating, indicating a favorable outlook for the industry due to stable demand and strong policy support [3][5]. Core Views - The agriculture sector is seen as a defensive investment option amidst a complex external environment, with many meat protein and agricultural product prices currently in a recovery phase, suggesting potential for stable growth in leading companies [3]. - The report highlights that low costs are a core competitive advantage for listed pig farming companies, recommending a focus on firms with strong cost control or clear cost reduction paths [3]. - The report suggests monitoring specific companies across various segments, including pig farming, poultry, feed, and agricultural products, indicating a diversified investment approach [3]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The agriculture sector underperformed the market by 1.02 percentage points during the week of May 6-9, 2025, with the index closing at 2,619.30, reflecting a 0.99% increase [14]. - Among sub-sectors, the fishery sector performed best with a 3.87% increase, while the breeding sector saw a slight decline of 0.19% [16][18]. Key Industry Data Pig Farming - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of live pigs was 14.82 CNY/kg, down 0.13% from April 30, 2025, and down 0.74% year-on-year [1]. - The profit from self-breeding was 84.33 CNY per head, while the profit from purchasing piglets increased by 9.92 CNY to 58.46 CNY per head [1]. Poultry - As of May 9, 2025, the average price of broiler chicks was 2.91 CNY per chick, up 0.34% week-on-week, while the price of white feather broilers was 7.45 CNY/kg, down 0.40% [2]. Agricultural Products - As of May 9, 2025, the average prices for key crops were as follows: wheat at 2,460.67 CNY/ton (up 0.19%), japonica rice at 2,864.00 CNY/ton (up 0.21%), corn at 2,292.86 CNY/ton (up 1.78%), and soybean meal at 3,300.00 CNY/ton (down 5.08%) [2]. Company Announcements - Muyuan Foods reported selling 6.573 million pigs in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 51.80%, with an average selling price of 14.66 CNY/kg [35][36]. - Shennong Development achieved a sales revenue of 1.533 billion CNY in April 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.68% [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy, and bond yields are expected to break through previous lows. The RMB exchange rate has shown a short - term strengthening trend due to factors such as fluctuations in Sino - US economic and trade relations, the weakening of the US dollar index, domestic economic recovery, and risk - aversion sentiment. The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate may trigger a bond market rally in May, with the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that investors seize the rhythm, with trading accounts adding positions on adjustments and allocation accounts paying attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds 1.1 Liquidity Observation From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 199.98 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 124.48 billion yuan under the full - caliber. Inter - bank capital prices mostly increased, with DR001 rising 18.29BP to 1.7853% and DR007 rising 7.87BP to 1.7986%. Exchange - traded capital prices showed mixed trends [1][15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 135.092 billion yuan, with a net financing of 134.697 billion yuan. Treasury bonds were not issued, policy - based financial bonds raised 42 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased compared to the previous period, raising 93.092 billion yuan [1][24]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most Treasury bond spot yields declined. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.98BP to 1.4599%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bond yields declined 4.26BP, 2.70BP, 3.52BP, and 3.63BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 21.05BP to 16.44BP. The spot yields of China Development Bank bonds also declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 12.77BP to 9.35BP [1][30]. 2. Credit Bonds 2.1 Primary Market Issuance From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds decreased. A total of 443 new credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 460.695 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 135 billion yuan. The net financing was - 208.918 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. In terms of bond ratings, AAA - rated bonds accounted for 55.99% of the total issuance. Credit bond issuance was mainly within 1 year. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][41]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading From April 25 to April 30, 2025, most of the maturity yields of urban investment bonds declined, with the 10 - year AA - rated bonds having the largest decline of 4.96BP. Most of the maturity yields of medium - and short - term notes also declined, with the 10 - year AAA, AA +, and AA - rated notes having the largest decline of 3.49BP [2][52]. 2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review From April 28 to May 4, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [54]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Overall Rise of European and American Stock Indices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the three major US stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 3.00%, the S&P 500 rising 2.92%, and the Nasdaq rising 3.42%. European stock indices also rose, with the German DAX rising 3.80%, the French CAC40 rising 3.11%, and the UK FTSE 100 rising 2.15%. Most Asia - Pacific stock indices rose, except for the Shanghai Composite Index and the Russian Index [3][55]. 3.2 Overall Rise of US Treasury Yields From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the yields of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 5.00BP, 6.00BP, 4.00BP, 5.00BP, and 4.00BP respectively [3][57]. 3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies The US dollar index rose 0.46% week - on - week, and non - US currencies weakened. The pound sterling, euro, and yen against the US dollar all declined, while the US dollar against the RMB declined 0.07% [3][61]. 3.4 Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices From April 25 to May 2, 2025, the prices of crude oil and gold declined. The COMEX gold futures price fell 1.44%, and the London spot gold price fell 0.84%. The Brent crude oil price fell 8.34%, and the WTI crude oil price fell 7.51% [3][63]. 4. Investment Suggestions The strengthening of the RMB exchange rate provides room for domestic monetary policy. In May, the central bank's simultaneous implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may trigger a bond market rally. The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is expected to break through previous lows. It is recommended that trading accounts add positions on adjustments, and allocation accounts pay attention to opportunities when local bond supply increases [4][69].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the oil and petrochemical sector [5] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have seen a decline recently, with Brent crude settling at approximately $61.29 per barrel, down about 6.94% week-on-week and approximately 19.24% year-to-date. WTI crude settled at about $58.29 per barrel, down about 6.06% week-on-week and approximately 17.18% year-to-date [22][23] - The upstream sector is expected to benefit from a stable high price range for international oil, which is favorable for upstream oil and gas companies [29] - The midstream refining sector shows potential for performance recovery, with significant increases in price spreads for various refined products [34] - The polyester terminal sector indicates a recovery potential for long filament enterprises due to inventory declines and widening price spreads [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector declined by approximately 0.25% during the week of April 28 to April 30, 2025, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by about 0.49%, indicating a relative outperformance of 0.24 percentage points [16] - Leading stocks included Guangju Energy (+8.07%), Compton (+7.32%), and Shenyang Chemical (+5.25%), while laggards included Hongtian Co. (-15.65%) and ST Haiyue (-7.33%) [20][21] Upstream Sector - The number of active drilling rigs in North America has decreased week-on-week, with a more significant year-on-year decline. However, global drilling platform numbers are expected to have room for growth [30] - EIA forecasts indicate that U.S. crude oil production will maintain growth, reaching 13.5 million barrels per day in 2025 [31] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have slightly decreased, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by approximately 63 yuan/ton and 56 yuan/ton, respectively [34] - The price spreads for diesel and gasoline in Singapore have widened, indicating a potential recovery for refining companies [34] Polyester Terminal Sector - As of May 4, the POY price spread was approximately 1,081 yuan/ton, with overall inventory levels declining [42] - The polyester bottle chip market price increased to approximately 5,733 yuan/ton, indicating a potential for recovery in this segment [48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main investment themes: 1. Focus on energy state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for their efforts in oil and gas exploration and green transformation [55] 2. Attention to oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering due to rising global upstream capital expenditures [55] 3. Investment in companies like Baofeng Energy and New Natural Gas, driven by energy security and policy support [55] 4. Monitoring refining companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical for new capacity planning and material project layouts [55]

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the non-bank financial industry [6] Core Insights - The public fund commission income is expected to decline significantly due to fee rate reductions and the passive nature of equity public funds, with a forecast of 79 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 28% year-on-year decrease [2][30] - The commission income for the securities industry in 2024 is projected to be 107.8 billion yuan, down 35% year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of commission rate reductions [1][17] - The increasing proportion of passive equity funds is leading to a decrease in trading turnover rates, which is further contributing to the decline in commission income [2][25] Summary by Sections 1. Development Trends - The public fund commission rate dropped to 0.037% in the second half of 2024, a significant decline of 48.7% year-on-year [21][23] - The growth of equity funds in 2024 is primarily driven by passive stock funds, which increased their share from one-third at the end of 2023 to nearly half by the end of 2024 [2][30] - The trading volume of public funds decreased by 8% in 2024, contrasting with a 21% increase in overall market trading volume [25] 2. Competitive Landscape - The concentration of commission income among securities firms is rebounding in 2024 after a decline from 2020 to 2023, attributed to industry consolidation and new regulations separating commission from sales capabilities [3][33] - The average commission distribution ratio for 12 securities firms fell from 23.5% in 2023 to 17.3% in 2024 due to new regulations [3][37] - The number of licensed analysts in the industry increased by 20% in 2024, reaching a total of 5,563 [2][43] 3. Public Fund Perspective - The top three fund companies contributing to commission income in 2024 were E Fund, Fuguo, and GF Fund, accounting for nearly 70% of the total commission [4] - The scale of fund settlement models reached 1.1 trillion yuan by April 2025, representing 3.4% of all public funds [4] - Fund companies have disclosed their criteria for selecting securities firms, emphasizing the importance of strong research capabilities [4][5] 4. Response Strategies - Securities firms are encouraged to diversify their income sources and enhance the strategic role of their research departments [5] - Non-public institution commission rates are not affected by new regulations, with a 10% year-on-year increase in commission income from non-public institutions for leading firms [5] - The development model of research departments should shift from a commission-for-research model to a more comprehensive research approach [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Viewpoints - The company has significantly increased its market share in SLC NAND sales, with a notable year-on-year growth in sales volumes of NAND, NOR, and DRAM chips by 61.79%, 16.80%, and 20.79% respectively [2] - The demand for large-capacity SLC NAND has been driven by the growth in network communication, particularly in base stations, as well as the recovery in demand for consumer electronics and security applications [2] - The rapid development of AI terminals is expected to accelerate the demand for niche storage solutions, benefiting the company as it focuses on small-capacity storage chips [3] - The company has successfully completed the first wafer processing of its first-generation GPU chip, which aims to address key issues in the domestic GPU architecture [3] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 641 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.80%, but reported a net loss of 167 million yuan [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 142 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.90%, with a net loss of 59 million yuan [1] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be -131 million yuan, 3 million yuan, and 177 million yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of -0.30, 0.01, and 0.40 yuan [4][6] Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the storage cycle, leading to simultaneous growth in volume and price, alongside accelerated domestic substitution and enhanced product advantages [4] - The integration of storage, computing, and networking is anticipated to further open up growth opportunities for the company [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is transitioning between old and new growth drivers, with the intelligent manufacturing sector showing strong performance. The ERP segment generated revenue of 1.15 billion yuan, down 5.67% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in the digital construction cycle of some core clients. In contrast, the intelligent manufacturing and industrial IoT segments achieved revenue of 990 million yuan, up 19.33% year-on-year, driven by increased market expansion efforts, enhanced product capabilities, and support from domestic policies [2][3] - The company provides comprehensive AI services, addressing the challenges of data fragmentation and complex business logic in industrial scenarios. It connects model vendors to clients, offering high-value products and services. The company has developed an enterprise-level AI platform, "Shanmo GPT," facilitating rapid deployment and effective implementation of AI applications [2] - The company has successfully established a commercial closed loop in the PCB industry, leveraging self-developed AI models to significantly enhance operational efficiency for clients. Orders from PCB industry clients increased by 35% year-on-year, with AI model orders exceeding 13 million yuan [3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.395 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.27%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 139 million yuan, down 45.21%. In Q1 2025, revenue was 490 million yuan, down 9.37%, with a net profit of 25 million yuan, up 20.29% [1][6] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.727 billion yuan, 3.187 billion yuan, and 3.781 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 16.8%, and 18.6%, respectively. EPS for the same period is expected to be 0.54 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.77 yuan [4][6]