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Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings, citing its leadership in the internet and gaming sectors, and its potential to benefit from the continued growth of the gaming industry [1][95] Core Views - Tencent is China's largest social platform company, with a massive user base that provides a solid foundation for its various businesses As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million monthly active users (MAUs), while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1] - Tencent is a leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company is expected to benefit from the growth of the mobile gaming industry, which is projected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] - Video accounts are a key growth driver for Tencent's advertising business In Q2 2024, the company's online advertising revenue grew 19% YoY to RMB 29 9 billion, driven by video accounts and long-form video content [1] - Tencent is one of the duopolies in China's payment industry, with WeChat Pay and Alipay accounting for over 94% of the market share in Q3 2023 The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [1] Business Segments Social and Communication - QQ and WeChat are Tencent's core social tools As of Q2 2024, QQ has 571 million MAUs, while WeChat has 1 371 billion MAUs [1][51] - Video accounts are a strategic growth area for Tencent, with significant user engagement and advertising revenue growth In 2023, video account advertising revenue exceeded RMB 3 billion in Q2, and the annual GMV surpassed RMB 100 billion [55][56] Gaming - Tencent is the leader in China's gaming industry, with a 48 2% market share in 2023 The company has over 170 self-developed and licensed games, including popular titles like "Honor of Kings" and "PUBG Mobile" [1][65] - The mini-game market is growing rapidly, with 750 million active users in February 2024, accounting for 80 3% of the total traffic Tencent's mini-game revenue grew over 30% YoY in H1 2024 [1][65] Online Advertising - Tencent's online advertising revenue grew 22 65% YoY in H1 2024, driven by video accounts and long-form video content The company expects the online advertising business to grow at 19%, 21%, and 23% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [88][90] FinTech and Business Services - Tencent's FinTech and Business Services segment is benefiting from the growth of the third-party payment and cloud services markets The third-party personal payment market is expected to grow at 10 8%, 9 7%, and 8 9% from 2024 to 2026 respectively [76][77] - Tencent Cloud holds a 16% market share in China's cloud infrastructure services market in Q2 2024 The company is leveraging its AI capabilities, such as the Hunyuan large model, to attract more customers [81][82] Financial Performance and Valuation - Tencent's revenue grew 9 82% YoY in 2023 to RMB 609 015 billion, with a net profit of RMB 115 216 billion The company expects revenue to grow at 8 56%, 9 24%, and 10 13% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at 47 86%, 12 22%, and 13 13% respectively [2][95] - The company's EPS is expected to be RMB 18 38, RMB 20 63, and RMB 23 34 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a PE ratio of 20 16x, 17 96x, and 15 88x based on the closing price of HKD 402 80 on November 27, 2024 [95] Industry Outlook - China's mobile gaming industry is expected to grow at 4 65%, 3 91%, and 3 30% from 2024 to 2026, driven by the recovery of the economy and the normalization of game license approvals [68] - The online advertising market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 11% from 2024 to 2029, with video accounts playing a significant role in driving Tencent's advertising revenue growth [73][74]

计算机 行业研究/行业深度 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 深 度 资料来源：Wind，甬兴证券研究所 -40% -28% -16% -4% 8% 20% 11/23 01/24 03/24 06/24 08/24 11/24 计算机 沪深300 ◼ 核心观点 增持(维持) 近一年行业与沪深 300 比较 SAC编号： 分析师： 智能驾驶增益安全及效率，驶入发展快车道 据《中国智能驾驶白皮书》（中国人工智能协会，2015），智能驾驶通 过智能系统及传感器，有效减少交通事故，亦可显著降低运营成本。 据文远知行招股书，2022 年全球及中国大陆自动驾驶市场规模分别约 100 亿/20 亿美元，2030 年有望分别增长至 1.75 万亿/6390 亿美元， CAGR 分别为 79.75%/85.62%。从结构看，以 L4 及更高水平为代表的 高阶自动驾驶增速相对亮眼，有望超越行业平均。 智能驾驶路线向"端到端"演进，有望成为行业主流 据上海人工智能实验室、清华大学智能产业研究院、《端到端自动驾驶 系统研究综述》（陈妍妍等，2023）及《Planning-oriented Autonomous Dri ...

宏观研究/宏观点评 证 券 研 究 报 告 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 点 评 库存周期正待重启 ——11 月 PMI 与 10 月企业利润分析 ◼ 核心观点 一、工业企业利润累计同比降幅继续扩大，产成品库存增速连续下行， 资产增速继续下降，负债增速再次回落；同期 PPI 降速也在连续扩大。 1.工业企业利润 10 月当月同比降幅收窄但仍在负值区间，1-10 月累计 同比降幅扩大。1-10 月，工业企业营业收入累计同比 1.9 %（前值 2.1 %），利润总额累计同比-4.3 %（前值-3.5 %）。10 月当月工业企业 利润同比-10.0 %（前值-27.1 %），降幅虽然收窄但连续第 3 个月为负。 2.工业产成品库存增速连续回落，PPI 降幅连续扩大。1-10 月，工业 企业产成品库存累计同比 3.9 %（前值 4.6 %），连续第 3 个月回落； 此前工业产成品库存增速持续上升的趋势已经在 7 月终结。与此同时， 10 月 PPI 同比-2.9 %（前值-2.8 %），连续 3 个月降幅扩大，也是 PPI 同比增速第 25 个月为负值。 3.工业企业资产增速继续下降，负债增速再次回落。1-10 月工业企业 ...

电力设备 行业研究/行业深度 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 深 度 行业盈利能力回升，陆风风机具备出口潜力 ——风机行业深度报告 ◼ 核心观点 亚非拉市场具备潜力，国内招标量高增。1）海外市场：根据 GWEC 的预测，2023-2028 年亚非拉市场（除中国）陆风新增装机 CAGR 达 14.11%；其中，中东地区、非洲、亚太地区（除中国）的装机复合增 速更高。2）国内市场：根据金风科技业绩演示材料，2024 年 1-9 月国 内公开招标市场新增招标量 119.1GW，同比增长 93.0%。我们认为 2024 年的风机高招标量奠定 2025 年国内风电装机高增长。 风机行业集中度较高，竞争格局较为稳定。根据 CWEA 的统计，2023 年国内前五大风电整机制造商分别为金风科技、远景能源、运达股份、 明阳智能、三一重能，合计新增装机容量为 58.55GW，占据 73.8%的 市场份额。从行业集中度来看，行业 CR5/CR10 分别由 2020 年的 64.7%/91.5%提升至 2023 年的 73.8%/98.6%。 国内：风机招标价格企稳，行业盈利能力有望改善。根据中国能源新 闻网，CWP ...

核心品种短期承压，华润三九赋能在望 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——天士力 2024 年三季报业绩点评 公 司 研 究 公 司 点 评 ◼ 事件描述 公司发布 2024 年三季度报告, 业绩短期承压：2024 年前三季度收入 约 64.63 亿元，同比下降 1.66%，其中医药工业同比增长 2.18%，医药 商业同比下降 25.36%；归母净利润约 8.42 亿元，同比下降 18.41%， 主要系公司持有的金融资产公允价值变动损失高于上年同期及部分产 品降价毛利下降所致；扣非归母净利润约 9.82 亿元，同比下降 6.78%。 前三季度公司毛利率、归母净利率、扣非归母净利率分别为 66.8%、 13.0%、15.2%，分别同比下降 0.05 个百分点、2.68 个百分点、0.84 个 百分点。24Q3 毛利率、归母净利率、扣非归母净利率分别为 65.4%、 8.6%、11.8%，同比下降 2.78 个百分点、6.32 个百分点、4.8 个百分点。 ◼ 核心观点 心脑血管业务稳健增长：据公司财报，心脑血管为收入占比最高的业 务，2024 年前三季度收入约 42.4 亿元，同比增长 3.54%；抗肿瘤收入 约 1.6 ...

有色金属 行业研究/行业周报 俄乌战事升级黄金价格反弹，强美元压制商品价格 证 券 研 究 报 告 ——有色行业周报（2024.11.18-2024.11.22） 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 ◼ 核心要点 1、贵金属 俄乌战事持续升级，黄金价格反弹，但是市场对于美联储 12 月降息预期的 变化，将限制黄金反弹空间。据澎湃新闻，本周乌克兰首次使用美英远程导 弹袭击俄罗斯本土，俄乌战事持续升级激发市场的避险需求，增持黄金。本 周 COMEX 黄金非商业多头持仓占比环比上周+2.50pct，COMEX 黄金反 弹，环比+5.87%，报收 2718.20 美元/盎司。但是市场对于美联储 12 月暂停 降息的预期在升温，根据芝加哥商品交易所(CME)的 FedWatch 工具，目前 市场预期暂停降息的可能性为 44%，而上周这一概率为 17%；此外美元指数 本周走强，限制黄金的进一步上涨。从中长期维度看，我们仍维持原有观点 不变，即全球央行开启降息周期，不断上升的美国财政赤字及美债规模可能 会成为弱化美元的主因，黄金作为天然货币和避险资产的地位难以替代，我 们仍然看好黄金中长期的配置价值。 2、工业金属 自特朗普胜 ...