腾讯混元自研深度思考模型 T1 发布 据 IT 之家援引腾讯混元微信公众号，近日腾讯混元正式推出自研深度 思考模型混元 T1 正式版。通过大规模强化学习，并结合数学、逻辑推 理、科学和代码等理科难题的专项优化，混元 T1 正式版进一步提升 了推理能力，其沿用了混元 TurboS 的创新架构，采用 Hybrid-Mamba- Transformer 融合模式，是工业界首次将混合 Mamba 架构无损应用于 超大型推理模型。这一架构有效降低了传统 Transformer 结构的计算复 杂度，减少了 KV-Cache 的内存占用，从而显著降低了训练和推理成 本。API 使用方面，混元 T1 已在腾讯云官网上线，输入价格为每百万 tokens 1 元，输出价格为每百万 tokens 4 元。 计算机 行业研究/行业周报 腾讯混元自研深度思考模型 T1 发布 ——全球 AI 产业跟踪（2025.3.17-2025.3.21) ◼ 核心观点 腾讯混元推出 5 款 3D 生成模型，全部开源 据 IT 之家，在近日腾讯混元 3D 开源日活动中，腾讯混元宣布推出 5 个全新 3D 生成模型，在生成速度、细节和材质表达上均有提升 ...

宏观研究/宏观点评 | 日期: | 2025年03月25日 | | --- | --- | | 分析师: | 高明 | | E-mail : | gaoming@yongxingsec.com | | SAC 编号: | S1760524050003 | 相关报告: 《科技为锋、制造为翼、消费为体》 -2025年03月07日 《财政政策的空间、节奏与侧重点》 -2025年02月17日 《把握政策取向,讲求时机力度》 -2024年12月13日 财政支出逆周期增长 1至2月财政收支分析 核心观点 一、财政收入压力仍在,但支出保持逆周期增长。2025年1-2月公共 财政收入累计同比-1.6 %(2024年为1.3 %),公共财政支出累计同比 3.4%(2024年为3.6%):政府性基金收入累计同比-10.7%(2024年 为-12.2 %),政府性基金支出累计同比 1.2 %(2024年为 0.2 %)。 二、公共财政支出结构: 1-2月公共财政支出 45.096 亿元。其中中央 本级财政支出占比 11.6%,同比 8.6 %(2024年为 6.5 %):地方财政 支出占比 88.4%。 同比 2.7 %(2024 ...

传媒 行业研究/行业周报 教育文化等领域有望扩大开放试点，GDC2025 开幕 ——传媒行业周报（2025.03.17-2025.3.21） ◼ 核心观点 本周核心观点与重点要闻回顾 教育：商务部今年着力研究在教育、文化等领域扩大开放试点，产 业链有望受益。3 月 20 日，商务部举行例行新闻发布会。谈及商务 部今年会有哪些稳外资的举措和活动时，新闻发言人何咏前表示，今 年以来，商务部会同相关部门继续通过外资企业圆桌会议、外资企业 服务专班、投诉机制等渠道，广泛收集外资企业反映的共性问题和需 求，在"外资 24 条"等现有政策基础上，推出了《2025 年稳外资行 动方案》，出台了 20 项稳外资务实举措。提出进一步扩大开放领 域，今年，将继续推动相关领域试点项目加快落地，稳妥有序扩大试 点范围，同时着力研究在教育、文化等领域扩大开放试点。 影视：上海影视创制大会召开，相关板块有望受益。为提升上海乃 至中国在全球文化格局中的影响力，以"影视+"助力文旅商体展深 度融合，培育新的经济增长点，3 月 19 日至 20 日，上海影视创制大 会落地上海展览中心，以上海电视剧制播年会、电视剧品质盛典、上 海微短剧大会、微 ...

NAND 持续涨价，SK 海力士展示 12 层 HBM4 ——存储芯片周度跟踪（2025.03.17-2025.03.21） 电子 行业研究/行业周报 我们持续看好受益先进算力芯片快速发展的 HBM 产业链、以存储为 代表的半导体周期复苏主线。 HBM：受益于算力芯片提振 HBM需求，相关产业链有望迎来加速成 长，建议关注赛腾股份、壹石通、联瑞新材、华海诚科等； 存储芯片：受益于供应端推动涨价、库存逐渐回归正常、AI 带动 HBM、SRAM、DDR5 需求上升，产业链有望探底回升。推荐东芯股 份，建议关注兆易创新、恒烁股份、佰维存储、江波龙、德明利 等。 ◼ 风险提示 中美贸易摩擦加剧、下游终端需求不及预期、国产替代不及预期等。 ◼ 核心观点 NAND：三星、海力士加入存储涨价潮，减产和 AI 需求成双重推 手。根据 DRAMexchange，上周（20250317-0321）NAND 颗粒 22 个 品类现货价格环比涨跌幅区间为 0.00%至 2.86%，平均涨跌幅为 0.93%。其中 5 个料号价格持平，17 个料号价格上涨，0 个料号价格 下跌。根据科创板日报报道，继闪迪、美光之后，三星、SK 海力士 ...

通信 行业研究/行业周报 算力：英伟达 GTC 推出 Blackwell Ultra GPU 和 CPO 交换机。根据 金融界报道，在 3 月 17 日至 21 日举办的英伟达 GTC2025 大会上， CEO 黄仁勋发布了新一代旗舰芯片 Blackwell Ultra GPU，并宣布 AI 正式迈入"大推理时代"。Blackwell Ultra 通过 12 层堆叠的 HBM3e 内存将显存提升至 288GB，FP4 精度算力达到 15PetaFLOPS，较前代 产品性能提升 2.5 倍。根据 LightCounting 官方公众号，英伟达推出 了分别用于 InfiniBand 和以太网的 CPO 交换机，名为 Quantum-X Photonics 和 Spectrum-X Photonics。InfiniBand CPO 将于 2025 年下半 年率先推出，而以太网 CPO 则计划在 2026 年下半年发布。英伟达声 称，与 1.6T 可插拔光模块的 30W 功耗相比，1.6T CPO 端口的功耗仅 为 9W，降低了 70%。英伟达的 CPO 基于新型微环调制器 （MRM），以进一步提升能效。 政府工作报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [4][6]. Core Insights - In January-February 2025, China's total retail sales reached 8.37 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% and a month-on-month increase of 0.30 percentage points [2]. - Excluding automobiles, retail sales of consumer goods amounted to 7.68 trillion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year [2]. - E-commerce penetration is slowing, while offline convenience stores and specialty stores are performing well [2]. - Online retail sales reached 2.28 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, while physical goods online retail sales were 1.86 trillion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year [2]. - The food and beverage sector showed resilience, with retail sales of staple foods increasing by 11.5% year-on-year [3]. Summary by Sections Retail Sales Performance - In January-February, total retail sales were 739.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.9% [3]. - Restaurant income grew by 4.3% year-on-year, driven by the Spring Festival [3]. - Essential consumption categories like staple foods showed strong growth, while discretionary consumption exhibited mixed performance [3]. Investment Recommendations - Investment focus one: The Spring Festival effect is expected to boost sales in the gold and jewelry sector, with long-term growth driven by new gold processing technologies. Companies to watch include Lao Feng Xiang, Zhou Da Sheng, and Chao Hong Ji [4]. - Investment focus two: As policies to stimulate consumption take effect, offline sales are expected to recover steadily. Traditional supermarkets are undergoing reforms, with companies like Gao Xin Retail and Yonghui Supermarket recommended for attention [4]. - Investment focus three: The e-commerce sector is seeing improved competition dynamics, with major platforms enhancing their strategic positioning. Companies like Pinduoduo, Alibaba, and JD Group are suggested for monitoring [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the electronic industry [5] Core Insights - AI: Meta Platforms is testing its first self-developed chip for training AI systems, aiming to reduce reliance on external suppliers like Nvidia and lower infrastructure costs. This trend indicates a growing opportunity for the AI chip industry, particularly in inference chips [10][27] - Consumer Electronics: Huawei is set to launch its first phone running the native HarmonyOS, marking a significant development for domestic smartphones and benefiting the related supply chain [10][27] - Domestic Substitution: A team from Peking University has developed the world's first low-power, high-performance two-dimensional gate-all-around transistor, which could accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's growth [11][28] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Continued optimism for the AI industry chain, consumer electronics benefiting from the HarmonyOS phone launch, and the accelerating domestic substitution process in the semiconductor industry. Recommended companies include: - AI Industry: Weicai Technology, Huafeng Technology, Chipone Technology, and others [12] - Consumer Electronics: Dongmu Co., Ltd. and others [12] - Domestic Substitution: Jiangfeng Electronics and others [12] Market Review - During the week of March 10-14, the A-share Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 0.62%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.2 percentage points. The performance of the six major sub-sectors was as follows: - Components: +6.68% - Other Electronics II: +2.47% - Optical and Optoelectronic: -0.17% - Consumer Electronics: -1.14% - Electronic Chemicals II: -1.55% - Semiconductors: -2.11% [15][16] Industry News - Meta Platforms is testing a self-developed chip to reduce infrastructure costs, which could lead to more custom chip designs [27] - Huawei is launching its first phone with native HarmonyOS, indicating a positive trend for domestic smartphones [27] - A breakthrough in low-power transistors by a Chinese research team could enhance the domestic semiconductor manufacturing landscape [28]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The AI software market is projected to reach approximately $153 billion by 2028, with clear commercialization paths for overseas ToB AI applications [1][13] - Major cloud vendors like Amazon have integrated AI into their retail and AWS businesses, resulting in significant efficiency gains, such as a 20% sales increase for sellers and savings of $260 million in development costs [2][24] - The commercialization paths for overseas AI vendors are diverse, with companies like Salesforce and Freshworks leading in AI product offerings, while SAP and ServiceNow focus on integrating AI into existing products [1][4][17] Summary by Sections AI Software Market - The AI software market is expected to grow to about $153 billion by 2028, driven by applications in marketing, customer operations, collaborative office work, R&D, supply chain, and backend support [1][13] Cloud Vendors and AI Applications - Amazon's retail and AWS businesses have adopted AI tools, enhancing productivity and achieving a 20% sales growth for sellers [2][19] - AWS's Q Transform feature has saved $260 million and 4,500 developer years by migrating over 30,000 applications to a new Java JDK version [24] AI Product Commercialization - Salesforce's Agentforce offers a pay-per-use model, enhancing customer ROI through improved customer support, sales training, and client development [3][32] - Freshworks provides AI solutions based on consumption pricing, allowing for personalized customer interactions [41] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI software companies with strong data, processes, and know-how, highlighting potential investment targets across various sectors, including office, education, industrial, healthcare, search, design, e-commerce, finance, data processing, and specialized industries [4][55][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the electronic industry [5]. Core Insights - The AI industry is expected to benefit from Meta Platforms testing its self-developed chip aimed at reducing infrastructure costs, indicating a trend towards in-house chip development in cloud services [10][27]. - The launch of Huawei's first smartphone with the native HarmonyOS is anticipated to significantly benefit the domestic smartphone supply chain [10][27]. - A breakthrough in low-power, high-performance two-dimensional gate-all-around transistors by a Chinese research team is expected to accelerate the domestic semiconductor industry's development [11][28]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - AI: Meta's self-developed chip is set to lower costs and reduce reliance on external suppliers like Nvidia, suggesting a positive outlook for the AI chip industry [10][27]. - Consumer Electronics: The upcoming launch of Huawei's HarmonyOS smartphone is seen as a major advancement for domestic smartphones, benefiting the related supply chain [10][27]. - Domestic Substitution: The development of a new low-power transistor is expected to enhance domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [11][28]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index fell by 0.62%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.2 percentage points [15][22]. - Among the six major sub-sectors, components saw the highest increase at 6.68%, while semiconductors experienced the largest decline at 2.11% [16][22]. 3. Investment Recommendations - AI Industry: Recommended companies include Weicet Technology, Huafeng Technology, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the AI trend [12]. - Consumer Electronics: East Mux is recommended, with additional companies like Guanghong Technology and Furi Electronics suggested for attention [12]. - Domestic Substitution: Jiangfeng Electronics is recommended, with companies like Northern Huachuang and Zhongwei Company suggested for further observation [12]. 4. Industry News - Meta Platforms is testing its first self-developed chip for AI training, which could lead to more custom chip designs [27]. - Huawei is set to launch its first smartphone with the native HarmonyOS, marking a significant step for domestic mobile technology [27]. - A Chinese team has developed the world's first low-power, high-performance two-dimensional gate-all-around transistor, which could revolutionize the semiconductor industry [28].