估值：指数 PE 估值分位普涨，金融风格领跌，石油石化领涨 ◼ 风险提示 上市公司业绩不及预期、市场波动超预期、海外经济增速不及预期。 策略研究/策略周报 成交额边际收敛，全行业估值分位回落较多 ——情绪与估值 9 月第 1 期 ◼ 内容要点：上周（8.28-9.3）A 股市场两融余额增加，换手率跌多涨少。 主要指数 PE 估值分位普涨，其中创业板指领涨。主要风格 PE 估值分位跌 多涨少，其中金融风格领跌。全行业估值分位数石油石化领涨，非银行金 融领跌。（*本篇报告根据研究需要，"上周"统一为非自然周。） 情绪：两融余额增加，市场换手率跌多涨少，成交额跌多涨少 | 日期： | yxzqdatemark 2025年09月08日 | | --- | --- | | 分析师： | 唐文卿 | | E-mail： | tangwenqing@yongxi | | | ngsec.com | | SAC编号： | S1760524050001 | 相关报告： 《美债收益率下行，股票型 ETF 发行升温》 ——2025 年 09 月 03 日 《融资买入额活跃，全市场 PE 分位普涨》 ——2025 年 09 月 02 ...

恺英网络(002517) 公司研究/公司点评 ◼ 事件描述 根据公司公告，公司公布 2025 年半年报，公司营业收入为 25.8 亿元， 同比上升 0.9%；归母净利润为 9.5 亿元，同比上升 17.4%；扣非归母 净利润为 9.39 亿元，同比上升 17.2%。 ◼ 核心观点 移动游戏业务略有下滑，信息服务板块增长明显。根据公司 2025 年半 年报，2025 年上半年，公司移动游戏业务实现收入 18.83 亿元，同比 增长-10.14%，信息服务业务实现收入 6.57 亿元，同比增长 65.33%。 信息服务业务是公司新的增长点，游戏盒子业务进展迅速：根据公司 2025 年半年报，公司信息服务业务收入同比增长 65.33%，毛利率提升 1.84pct。公司在投资者交流纪要中表示，2025 年 7 月 8 日，公司子公 司闲趣互娱与天穹互动签署《热血传奇》及《传奇世界》授权许可协 议。三九互娱携手天穹互动，每年支付 1 亿元，用于其在传奇盒子"39 互娱"品牌专区的展示、推广其运营的游戏及游戏直播、游戏代言宣传 等服务。贪玩游戏携手众多明星代言人入驻传奇盒子，向闲趣互娱支 付 2 亿元在传奇盒子内开设"贪 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is expected to continue the "bullish steepening" trend. The current changes in PMI, as a core leading indicator of the economic fundamentals, may reflect "endogenous weak recovery + external pressure transmission". Coupled with the expectations of loose liquidity and policy, the bond market is likely to continue the "bullish steepening" trend. The downward space for interest - rate bond yields has opened up, and the long - end is more cost - effective; for credit bonds, it is necessary to strictly control the risks of low - rated bonds and focus on short - duration high - rated bonds; for convertible bonds, attention should be paid to varieties with strong policy catalysis and underlying stock elasticity [1][69]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 32,343.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 26,150.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6,193.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices increased, with DR001 down 8.27BP to 1.3295% and DR007 up 4.89BP to 1.5158%. Exchange - traded funding prices decreased, with overnight GC001 down 2.50BP to 1.2290% and GC007 down 490BP to 1.4840% [15]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the primary market for interest - rate bonds issued 5,025.97 billion yuan, with a total bond repayment of 5,161.89 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of - 135.92 billion yuan. There were no treasury bond issuances during the reporting period. Policy - based financial bonds raised 1,510.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuances decreased compared to the previous period, raising 3,515.97 billion yuan [28]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: Treasury bond spot yields increased at the long - end. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year treasury bonds decreased by 0.09BP, 2.88BP, 0.02BP, and 2.05BP respectively to 1.3698%, 1.4776%, 1.6322%, and 1.7320%, while the 10 - year treasury bond yield increased by 5.61BP to 1.8379%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 41.11BP to 46.81BP. The spot yields of policy - bank bonds decreased. During the same period, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds decreased by 3.09BP, 0.39BP, 0.36BP, 0.21BP, and 0.25BP respectively to 1.5346%, 1.6916%, 1.7685%, 1.8979%, and 1.8756%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 31.26BP to 34.10BP [34]. 3.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the primary market for credit bonds issued 784 new bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit), with a total issuance scale of 9,250.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 833.08 billion yuan compared to the previous period, and a net financing of - 2,078.26 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances. By rating, AAA - rated bonds were issued at 2,147.94 billion yuan, accounting for 59.51%. In terms of maturity, most bonds had a maturity of less than 1 year. By industry, the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][45]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields to maturity of credit bonds showed divergence. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, among urban investment bonds, the 5 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest upward movement of 5.94BP, while the 3 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest downward movement of 3.04BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 10 - year AA - rated bonds had the largest upward movement of 4.15BP, while the 1 - year AAA - rated bonds had the largest downward movement of 4.39BP [2][52]. - **One - week Credit Default Event Review**: From August 25 to August 31, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [56]. 3.3 Observation of Major Asset Classes - **Decline in European and American Stock Indices**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the three major US stock indices declined. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.19% weekly, the S&P 500 index fell 0.10% weekly, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.19% weekly, closing at 45544.88, 6460.26, and 21455.55 points respectively. The three major European stock indices also declined. The German DAX index fell 1.89% weekly, the French CAC40 index fell 3.34% weekly, and the UK FTSE 100 index fell 1.44% weekly, closing at 23902.21, 7703.90, and 9187.34 points respectively [57][58]. - **Decline in US Treasury Yields**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds decreased by 4.00BP, 6.00BP, 8.00BP, 6.00BP, and 3.00BP respectively to 3.83%, 3.58%, 3.68%, 3.92%, and 4.23%. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 1.00BP to 40.00BP [61]. - **Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Most Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index rose 0.13% weekly, and most non - US currencies weakened. From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.16% weekly to 1.3505; the euro against the US dollar fell 0.32% weekly to 1.1686; the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.08% weekly to 147.0540; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan fell 0.41% weekly to 7.1030 [63]. - **Increase in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: From August 22 to August 29, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price rose 3.02% weekly to 3,475.50 US dollars per ounce, and the London spot gold price rose 2.85% weekly to 3,429.15 US dollars per ounce. The Brent crude oil price rose 0.58% weekly to 68.12 US dollars per barrel, and the WTI crude oil price rose 0.55% weekly to 64.01 US dollars per barrel [67].

Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is 49.40%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[1] - The production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 50.80%, while the new orders index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 49.50%[1] - The new export orders index recorded 47.20%, up by 0.1 percentage points, and the import index rose to 48.00%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points[1][2] Price Trends - The raw material purchase price index increased by 1.8 percentage points to 53.30%, marking three consecutive months of rise[2] - The factory price index rose by 0.8 percentage points to 49.10%, also showing a three-month upward trend[2] - The price gap between raw material purchases and factory prices increased by 1.00 percentage point to 4.20 percentage points[2] Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for August is 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points, indicating accelerated expansion[2] - The service sector PMI reached 50.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, with capital market services showing strong growth[2][3] - The construction sector PMI fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, affected by adverse weather conditions[2][3] Investment Recommendations - The economic weak recovery pattern continues, with manufacturing supply PMI above the critical point for four consecutive months[3] - Focus on high-rated short-duration credit bonds while controlling low-rated risks in credit bonds[3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a "bull steep" trend, with long-end bonds offering better value[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has achieved steady growth in performance, with a revenue of 1.876 billion yuan and a net profit of 163 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing year-on-year increases of 2.34% and 69.69% respectively [2][3]. - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first half of 2025 were 32.64% and 8.21%, showing a decrease of 3.62 percentage points and an increase of 2.85 percentage points respectively [2]. - The company is focusing on its core consumer electronics business while actively expanding into new clients and sectors, which is expected to mitigate performance volatility caused by industry cycles [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.876 billion yuan and a net profit of 163 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32.64% and a net margin of 8.21% [2][3]. - The company’s expenses were well-controlled, with sales, management, financial, and R&D expense ratios at 9.14%, 5.9%, 1.58%, and 12.55% respectively [2]. Business Segments - The new energy business showed rapid growth, generating approximately 570 million yuan in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 30.3% [3]. - The semiconductor business also experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching approximately 35.84 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 314.4% [3]. - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with CATL for charging and swapping station equipment, which is expected to benefit from ongoing construction in this area [3]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 515 million yuan, 734 million yuan, and 856 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.15, 1.64, and 1.92 yuan [4][5]. - The report anticipates a multi-driver business structure with "3C + New Energy + Automotive" as the growth engines [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated robust performance with significant achievements in overseas expansion, achieving a revenue of 4.659 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.16% [1]. - The overseas sales reached 607 million yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 26.63%, indicating that international business is becoming a crucial driver of performance [2]. - The company is focusing on three core areas: respiratory and oxygen therapy, blood glucose and POCT, and disinfection and infection control, with rapid growth in overseas business expected to unlock further growth potential [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.203 billion yuan, up 7.37% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit was 914 million yuan, down 5.22% year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin improved by 0.37 percentage points to 50.37%, benefiting from effective cost management and a mature supply chain [3]. Product Performance - Revenue from respiratory treatment solutions was 1.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.93%, with home respiratory machine products seeing growth rates exceeding 40% [2]. - Blood glucose management and POCT solutions generated 674 million yuan, up 20.00% year-on-year, with CGM business experiencing rapid growth [2]. - Home health monitoring solutions brought in 1.014 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.22%, with electronic blood pressure monitors showing double-digit growth [2]. Innovation and R&D - The company is actively embracing technological advancements, applying AI and other cutting-edge technologies in product development and operational management, focusing on digitalization and wearability [3]. - R&D investment in the first half of 2025 was 295 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.44%, with several important innovative products receiving registration and being launched [3]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.010 billion yuan, 2.262 billion yuan, and 2.581 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.3%, 12.5%, and 14.1% [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" for the electronics sector [7] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in the computing power industry, including the successful tape-out of the world's first thermodynamic computing chip, which can enhance energy efficiency by up to 1000 times [1][17] - The smart glasses market has seen a year-on-year shipment increase of 110%, indicating strong growth potential in the edge AI sector [2][18] - The tablet market in China has experienced a 15.6% year-on-year increase in shipments, suggesting a recovery in the consumer electronics industry [2][19] - The domestic electronic beam lithography machine "Xizhi" has completed development, marking a major breakthrough in high-end chip manufacturing capabilities [3][20] Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The computing power industry is expected to thrive with the introduction of advanced chips, leading to investment opportunities in related sectors [1][5] - The smart glasses market is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on AI and AR integration, presenting investment opportunities in edge AI [2][5] - The consumer electronics sector is recovering, with increased tablet shipments indicating potential for investment [2][5] - The successful development of the "Xizhi" lithography machine strengthens the domestic supply chain, creating further investment opportunities [3][5] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 7.02%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.64 percentage points [4][22] - Among the sub-sectors, components saw the highest increase at 9.88%, while optical and optoelectronic sectors lagged at 2.36% [4][25] 3. Industry News - The report notes the successful tape-out of the CN101 chip, which is designed for AI and high-performance computing, achieving significant energy efficiency improvements [34] - The launch of the "Xizhi" electronic beam lithography machine represents a significant advancement in domestic chip manufacturing capabilities [34] - The smart glasses market is experiencing rapid growth, driven by technological advancements and market demand [35] 4. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Weicai Technology and Tianyue Advanced are highlighted for their roles in the computing power and semiconductor sectors, respectively [36] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining strong partnerships and innovation in product development to capitalize on market trends [36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company has shown steady growth with a revenue of 1.171 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.38%, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, up 4.22% year-on-year [1] - The company is focusing on the IP derivative business, which is expected to reach a market size of 202.8 billion yuan in China by 2025, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The overseas business has continued to grow, with revenue reaching 443 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.54%, and a gross margin of 32.43%, up 1.99 percentage points year-on-year [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.171 billion yuan, a 2.38% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 76 million yuan, reflecting a 4.22% growth [1] - The company expects revenues of 2.958 billion yuan, 3.198 billion yuan, and 3.502 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 6.5%, 8.1%, and 9.5% [4] - The net profit forecast for the same years is 167 million yuan, 202 million yuan, and 233 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.9%, 20.8%, and 15.5% [4] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging its brand, design, IP resources, manufacturing scale, and channel advantages to enhance its competitive edge [1] - The IP matrix includes both externally licensed IPs such as "Zhu Xian" and "Detective Conan," and self-developed IPs like "Xi Xi Jiang" and "MIMO," aiming to expand product categories and improve IP operations [2] Market Outlook - The report highlights the potential of the IP derivative market in China, which is projected to grow significantly, providing a favorable environment for the company's strategic focus [2] - The overseas business is expected to continue its growth trajectory despite challenges in the international market, with a focus on high-value products and large orders [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue growth of 30.77% year-on-year in H1 2025, driven by active market expansion, with total revenue reaching 374 million yuan [1][2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company decreased by 41.87% year-on-year, primarily due to intensified price competition in the domestic automotive market and increased fixed costs from ongoing fundraising projects [1][3] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In H1 2025, the company's revenue from automotive gears, electric tool gears, reducers, and other equipment was 199 million, 68 million, 87 million, and 19 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.35%, 6.26%, 101.69%, and 22.35% [2] - The gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 18.96% and 5.50%, down by 3.23 and 3.83 percentage points compared to the full year of 2024 [3] R&D and Technological Advancements - The company has developed core technologies for ultra-hard, ultra-fine high-speed cutting hard alloy gear hobs, achieving an industry-leading minimum modulus of 0.05mm, which meets the high-precision gear processing needs of industries such as robotics [4] - The development of core equipment for planetary roller screw processing is on track, with plans for further optimization to achieve mass production and cost reduction [4] Future Growth Prospects - The company is investing in a project in Vietnam to produce 1 million sets of precision transmission structure products annually, with part of the production equipment already installed and in trial production [5][12] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 765 million, 854 million, and 956 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.9%, 11.7%, and 11.9% respectively [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the release of DeepSeek-V3.1, which significantly upgrades its technical architecture and optimizes parameter precision to adapt to domestic chips, promoting the development of domestic computing power chips and the AI industry [16][33] - KTC's launch of the new KTC AI interactive glasses is seen as a positive development for edge-side investment opportunities, with the product gaining consumer recognition [17][33] - Google's Pixel 10 series emphasizes AI integration, indicating a recovery in the consumer electronics industry and presenting investment opportunities within the related supply chain [18][33] - The introduction of direct-write lithography equipment by Hefei Chip Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic supply chain, reinforcing confidence in domestic alternatives [19][33] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on domestic computing power opportunities following the release of DeepSeek's new version [20] - It suggests investing in edge-side technologies due to the launch of KTC's AI glasses [20] - The consumer electronics sector is highlighted for its recovery potential, particularly with Google's new AI-integrated products [20] - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic supply chains, particularly with the introduction of new lithography equipment [20] 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Electronics Index rose by 8.95%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.77 percentage points [21][24] - The semiconductor sector led the gains with a 12.26% increase, while the components sector lagged with a 1.68% increase [24][26] 3. Industry News - DeepSeek's V3.1 release marks a new phase in China's AI industry, focusing on domestic chip compatibility [33] - KTC's AI glasses are designed for comfort and functionality, supporting various AI features [33] - Google's Pixel 10 series showcases enhanced AI capabilities, reinforcing its commitment to integrating AI into consumer products [34] - The successful introduction of direct-write lithography equipment supports the domestic semiconductor packaging industry [34]