Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Interest Rate Bonds**: From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank funds and exchange funds rose. The primary market of interest rate bonds had a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, and the term spreads widened [1][15][33]. - **Credit Bonds**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the issuance volume of credit bonds decreased month - on - month, with a net financing of - 247.824 billion yuan. The yields of credit bonds, including urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes, increased overall. One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during the week [2][58][60]. - **Major Asset Weekly Observation**: During July 18 - July 25, 2025, most European and American stock indexes rose. The yields of US Treasury bonds were differentiated. The US dollar index fell, and non - US currencies strengthened. Crude oil and gold prices declined [3][62][72]. 3. Investment Recommendations The July Politburo meeting is expected to focus on the dual main lines of "stable growth" and "structural adjustment": - **Stable Growth and Domestic Demand Expansion**: The economic growth rate in the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, providing room for the annual target of 5%. In the second half, the pressure of stable growth is relatively controllable. The key is to give full play to the effectiveness of existing policies and appropriately introduce incremental policies [4][76]. - **Structural Adjustment**: Measures such as rectifying local protectionism and improving the market access and exit mechanism are expected to be detailed. The ten - industry stable growth plans announced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology are expected to be implemented intensively [4][77]. - **Real Estate Market**: Multi - dimensional measures may be taken on both the supply and demand sides. The supply side will clarify the standards for "good houses", and the demand side may relax the purchase threshold [77]. - **Capital Market**: Long - term funds are encouraged to enter the market. The delisting system of listed companies will be improved, and supervision will be strengthened [78]. - **Livelihood Field**: Stable employment is the core. New employment opportunities will be created through "two new and two important" projects [79]. - **Stabilizing Foreign Investment and Expanding Opening - up**: Policies will focus on stabilizing foreign investment and expanding opening - up in parallel to cope with the pressure of tariff reconstruction [79]. - **Medium - and Long - Term Layout**: The meeting may announce the time of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee and review the suggestions for formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan, with new productive forces as the strategic focus [79]. Investors should pay attention to the main lines of consumer service, new impetus for infrastructure, industrial upgrading, and capital market reform, and be vigilant against external tariff shocks. For the bond market, it is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy, adjust the duration flexibly, and seize trading opportunities [4][80]. 4. Summary by Relevant Directory 4.1 Interest Rate Bonds - **Liquidity Observation**: The central bank conducted a net injection of 212.3 billion yuan. The prices of inter - bank and exchange funds rose. For example, DR001 rose 6.08BP to 1.5174%, and GC001 rose 3.00BP to 1.4130% [15][19][21]. - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, the primary market of interest rate bonds issued 939.805 billion yuan, with a net financing of 209.169 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased [27]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 31.62BP to 34.89BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 23.82BP to 28.57BP [33][34]. 4.2 Credit Bonds - **Primary Market Issuance**: From July 21 to July 27, 2025, 956 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 1207.483 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 133.033 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest proportion of issuance volume, and AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.67% of the total issuance scale. The issuance was mainly short - term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [2][50]. - **Secondary Market Trading**: The yields of urban investment bonds and medium - and short - term notes increased overall. The 3 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest increase of 12.27BP, and the 10 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increase of 11.99BP [58]. - **One - Week Credit Default Event Review**: One enterprise's credit bond defaulted during July 21 - July 27, 2025 [60]. 4.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation - **Most European and American Stock Indexes Rose**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.26%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.46%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.02%. Among European stock indexes, the German DAX Index fell 0.30%, the French CAC40 Index rose 0.15%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rose 1.43% [3][62][63]. - **Differentiated Yields of US Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year and 3 - year US Treasury bonds rose, while those of 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds fell. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by - 5.00BP to 31.00BP [65]. - **Weakening US Dollar Index and Strengthening Non - US Currencies**: The US dollar index fell 0.80%. The pound sterling, euro, and Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar [70]. - **Decline in Crude Oil and Gold Prices**: The prices of COMEX gold futures and London spot gold fell. Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices also declined [72].

Core Insights - The report indicates an increase in IPO amounts in July, with significant net inflows from southbound funds and financing into the pharmaceutical sector [1][4][34]. Macro Liquidity - Domestic: During the week of July 21-25, the yields on 2-year and 10-year government bonds rose, with the 10-year and 2-year bond yield spread widening. The central bank's net injection in the open market was 109.5 billion yuan, and the MLF net injection was 100 billion yuan [2][12]. - International: The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased while the 10-year yield decreased, leading to a decline in the dollar index. As of July 25, the spread between Chinese and U.S. 10-year government bonds narrowed to -2.67% [2][16][17]. Market Liquidity Public Funds - In July 2025, 110 new funds were established, with 62 being equity funds, totaling approximately 28.3 billion units issued [3][22]. ETF Funds - 35 new ETF funds were established in July 2025, with 25 being equity ETFs, totaling 11 billion units issued [3][25]. Southbound Funds - Significant net inflows were observed in southbound funds, with a total net inflow of 765.4 billion yuan year-to-date as of July 25 [3][34]. Margin Financing - The average financing purchase amount was 190 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase from the previous week, with notable net inflows in the non-ferrous metals and pharmaceutical sectors [4][42]. Fundraising - In July, there were 6 IPOs raising approximately 23.3 billion yuan, with total equity financing of about 60.7 billion yuan [4][46]. Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector saw the largest net inflow of 10.42 billion yuan, followed by pharmaceuticals and computers, totaling approximately 17 billion yuan [3][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Increase" [6] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector outperformed the market by 1.93 percentage points during the week of July 21-25, 2025, with the index closing at 2,855.04, reflecting a weekly increase of 3.62% [1][15] - The pig farming sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with the average price of pigs at 14.15 yuan/kg, down 0.84% week-on-week and down 26.15% year-on-year [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of cost control for listed pig farming companies to navigate the pig cycle effectively [4] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agricultural sector's index increased by 3.62%, ranking 9th among 31 sectors [1][15] - The breeding sector showed the best performance with a 5.27% increase, followed by planting, fishery, feed, agricultural product processing, and animal health sectors [17] 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1 Pig Farming - The profit from self-breeding pigs is 62.16 yuan/head, down 28.73 yuan/head week-on-week, while the profit from purchased piglets is -71.39 yuan/head, down 52.73 yuan/head [2] 2.2 Poultry - Chicken chick prices have rebounded, with an average price of 1.93 yuan/chick, up 40.88% week-on-week, and white feather chicken prices at 6.70 yuan/kg, up 4.69% [3] 2.3 Agricultural Products - Wheat and rice prices have increased, with wheat at 2,444.56 yuan/ton (up 0.20%) and rice at 2,912.00 yuan/ton (up 0.69%), while soybean meal prices have decreased to 2,964.00 yuan/ton (down 0.07%) [3] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the pig farming sector, particularly companies with strong cost control such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [4] - For poultry, it recommends looking at integrated industry leaders like Shennong Development and Lihua Stock [4] - In the feed sector, it highlights Haida Group and Hefeng Stock as key players benefiting from the recovery in livestock inventory [4] - For agricultural products, it suggests monitoring Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry, specifically in the power equipment sector [5]. Core Insights - The intelligent computing center industry is experiencing rapid expansion driven by a combination of policy support, local government initiatives, and surging market demand. The investment scale in China's intelligent computing center market reached 87.9 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of over 90%. It is projected to reach 288.6 billion yuan by 2028 [1][20]. - Local governments and basic telecom operators are the primary participants in the construction of intelligent computing centers, accounting for over 50% of the projects in operation, under construction, or planned as of August 2024. Internet and cloud service providers contribute approximately 17.7% of the projects [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Demand Driven Growth in AIDC - The investment scale of intelligent computing centers is significantly increasing due to the resonance of policy support and the demand for large models. The rapid growth in data volume driven by large model applications is pushing the intelligent computing center into an expansion phase [16][17]. - Major telecom operators and internet companies are ramping up their investments in computing power. For instance, China Mobile plans to invest 37.3 billion yuan in computing power, which will constitute 25% of its capital expenditure in 2025 [2][27]. 2. Evolution of Data Center Power Supply Architecture - The current power supply systems in data centers primarily utilize UPS, but there is a gradual shift towards HVDC and Panama power systems. HVDC systems offer significant advantages in reliability, efficiency, and economic viability compared to traditional UPS systems [3][26]. - The Panama power system demonstrates clear advantages in investment costs and operational efficiency, achieving a conversion efficiency of 97% [3][26]. 3. Future Trends in Power Supply Architecture - The transition towards medium and high voltage power supply systems is becoming a trend, with a focus on high-density and energy-efficient solutions in the AIDC era [3][38]. - The report suggests that companies like Kehua Data and Kstar, as well as leaders in HVDC and Panama power systems like Zhongheng Electric, are well-positioned to benefit from the increasing capital expenditures by internet companies [4][38].

Group 1 - Market sentiment has improved with an increase in margin trading balance, turnover rate, and transaction volume across major indices [2][19] - The average margin trading balance reached approximately 1.92 trillion yuan, up 1.48% from the previous week, with the financing purchase ratio rising to 11.13% of total A-share transaction volume [16][19] - The turnover rate for major indices increased, with the CSI 500 showing the largest growth in transaction volume at 18.30% [19][20] Group 2 - The PE valuation percentiles for major indices increased, with the Shenzhen Component Index leading with a rise of 5.1 percentage points [24][28] - Stable style sectors led the increase in PE valuation percentiles, rising by 2.6 percentage points, while the consumer style also saw a rise of 2.5 percentage points [36][39] - The construction industry led the sectoral PE valuation increases with a rise of 9.4 percentage points, while the banking sector saw a decline of 2.0 percentage points [53][54]

Report Title - Focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting, Fixed - income Weekly Report (2025.07.14 - 2025.07.18) [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: Overall decline in Treasury bond yields and widening of term spreads. From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 18,115.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 5,597.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 12,518.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices rose, while exchange - market funding prices declined overall. The net financing of the primary market decreased, and local government bond issuance increased. Treasury bond yields declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 29.51BP to 31.62BP [3][15][34]. - Credit bonds: Most credit bond yields declined. From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the primary market issuance of credit bonds increased month - on - month. Company bonds had the largest number of issuances, and medium - term notes had the highest issuance amount. Newly issued bonds were mainly AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 years. In the secondary market, most urban investment bond yields and medium - and short - term note yields declined [4][46][56]. - Major asset weekly observation: During July 11 - July 18, 2025, US stock indexes showed slight divergence. Most US Treasury yields declined, the US dollar index strengthened, and non - US currencies weakened. Oil prices declined, and gold prices showed divergence [6][62][74]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Overall Decline in Treasury Bond Yields and Widening of Term Spreads 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection and Divergence in Funding Prices - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 18,115.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 5,597.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 12,518.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank funding prices rose, and exchange - market funding prices declined overall [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing and Increase in Local Government Bond Issuance - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest rate bonds was 6,564.93 billion yuan, with a total bond repayment of 5,132.25 billion yuan and a net financing of 1,432.69 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 2,433.10 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 1,620.00 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance increased, raising 2,511.83 billion yuan [21]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Decline in Treasury Bond Yields and Widening of Term Spreads - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year Treasury bonds declined by 2.12BP, 1.15BP, 0.36BP, 1.10BP, and 0.01BP respectively, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 29.51BP to 31.62BP. Most yields of China Development Bank bonds declined, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 22.30BP to 23.82BP [34]. 2. Credit Bonds: Most Credit Bond Yields Declined 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Month - on - Month Increase in Issuance - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, 1,005 new credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 13,429.38 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 3,423.50 billion yuan. The total repayment was 11,522.43 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1,906.95 billion yuan. Company bonds had the largest number of issuances, and medium - term notes had the highest issuance amount. Newly issued bonds were mainly AAA - rated, and the issuance was mainly for 3 - 5 years. The financial industry had the largest number of issuances [46]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Most Credit Bond Yields Declined - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, most yields of urban investment bonds declined, with the 7 - year AA - rated bonds having the largest decline of 5.56BP. The yields of medium - and short - term notes declined overall, with the 10 - year AA - rated notes having the largest decline of 4.99BP [56]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [61]. 3. Major Asset Weekly Observation 3.1 Slight Divergence in European and American Stock Indexes - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the three major US stock indexes showed slight divergence. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.07% weekly, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.59% weekly, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.51% weekly. European stock indexes also showed slight divergence, and Asian - Pacific stock indexes had mixed performances [62]. 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Declined - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year US Treasury bonds declined by 1.00BP, 2.00BP, 3.00BP, and 1.00BP respectively, while the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.00BP. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 2.00BP to 36.00BP [68]. 3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.60% weekly, and non - US currencies weakened. The pound sterling against the US dollar fell 0.61% weekly, the euro against the US dollar fell 0.55% weekly, the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.96% weekly, and the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose 0.03% weekly [70]. 3.4 Decline in Oil Prices and Divergence in Gold Prices - From July 11 to July 18, 2025, the COMEX gold futures price fell 0.31% weekly, and the London spot gold price rose 0.09% weekly. The Brent crude oil price fell 1.53% weekly, and the WTI crude oil price fell 1.62% weekly [74]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Currently, the bond market shows the characteristics of "stable short - end and increasing long - end disturbances." The central bank maintains a loose liquidity environment, and short - term interest rates are resilient. However, the continued economic recovery in the second quarter may suppress long - end bullish sentiment. The effectiveness of the "anti - involution" policy needs to be verified by July's high - frequency data. If the situation continues to improve, long - end interest rates will be under pressure; otherwise, long - bond yields may continue to challenge previous lows. In the short term, the short - duration coupon strategy is still preferred, and long - end bonds can wait for trading opportunities when economic data exceed expectations. For credit bonds, the strategy of extending the duration of high - grade bonds is still effective. For convertible bonds, due to the significant influence of the equity market sentiment, an equilibrium allocation is recommended [7][77].

Core Insights - The central viewpoint indicates that the central bank's net injection of 1.2 trillion yuan is expected to improve liquidity expectations, with a notable increase in financing buy-ins and significant net inflows from southbound funds [1][2]. Macro Liquidity - Domestic liquidity saw a decline in both 2-year and 10-year government bond yields, with the yield spread widening. The central bank's open market net injection was 1.2011 trillion yuan, while 3,000 million yuan was withdrawn through MLF in July [2][12]. - Internationally, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased while the 10-year yield increased, leading to a rise in the dollar index. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.44%, and the dollar index reached 98.46, with the China-U.S. 10-year bond yield spread widening to -2.77% [2][17]. Market Liquidity - Public funds: In July 2025, 71 new funds were established, with 39 being equity funds, totaling approximately 11.6 billion shares issued [3][22]. - ETF funds: 15 new equity ETFs were established in July 2025, with a total issuance of 6.8 billion shares [3][25]. - Southbound funds: There was a significant net inflow of southbound funds, totaling 735.9 billion yuan year-to-date, with major inflows into non-bank financials, pharmaceuticals, and consumer services [3][32][34]. - Margin financing: The average financing buy-in amount was 148.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 6.3% increase week-on-week, with significant net inflows in the computer, machinery, and electronics sectors [4][39]. Fundraising - In July, there were 4 IPOs raising approximately 22.1 billion yuan, with total equity financing around 43.4 billion yuan [4][45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that during the week of July 10-16, the A-share market saw an increase in margin financing balance, with a general rise in turnover rates and trading volumes across major indices. The PE valuation percentiles for major indices mostly increased, with the CSI 1000 leading the gains [1][2][3]. Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread increased, indicating a relatively high investment cost-effectiveness in equity investments. As of July 16, 2025, the dividend yield of the CSI 300 was 3.06%, while the 10-year government bond yield was 1.66%, resulting in a stock-bond yield of -1.40%, which is higher than the average since the beginning of 2025 by 0.30 percentage points [13][16]. - The average margin financing balance for the week was approximately 1.89 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.10% compared to the previous week. The proportion of financing purchases in total A-share trading volume rose to 10.48%, up by 0.47 percentage points [16][19]. - Major indices experienced a general increase in trading volumes, with the CSI 300 showing the largest increase of 27.81% compared to the previous week, followed by the Shanghai Composite Index with an 18.54% increase [19][20]. Group 3 - The PE valuation percentiles for major indices mostly increased, with the CSI 1000 leading with a rise of 2.7 percentage points, followed by the CSI 500 with a 1.9 percentage point increase. The PB valuation percentiles also saw a general increase, with Wind's dual innovation index rising the most by 3.0 percentage points [23][27]. - Among different styles, the consumer sector led the increase in PE valuation percentiles by 1.2 percentage points, followed by the cyclical sector with a 1.0 percentage point increase. In terms of PB valuation percentiles, the cyclical sector saw the largest increase of 13.5 percentage points [31][35]. - In terms of industry performance, the oil and petrochemical sector led the increase in PE valuation percentiles by 4.0 percentage points, while the public utilities sector saw a decline of 1.8 percentage points [45][48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the interest - rate bond market, from July 04 to July 11, 2025, the central bank conducted 459.7 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations, with 1,178.1 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase maturities, resulting in a net withdrawal of 718.4 billion yuan in the full - scale. Bank - to - bank fund prices mostly rose, and interest - rate bond yields generally increased while the term spread narrowed [1]. - In the credit bond market, from July 07 to July 13, 2025, the primary market issued 957 credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 1,013.838 billion yuan, a net financing of 176.148 billion yuan. Credit bond yields mostly increased [2]. - For major asset weekly observation, from July 04 to July 11, 2025, US stock indices generally declined, European stock indices generally rose, US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, non - US currencies weakened, and both crude oil and gold prices rose [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 718.4 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange fund prices mostly rose, with some exceptions like the overnight GC001 in the exchange market [15]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From July 07 to July 13, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 690 billion yuan, with a net financing of 462.369 billion yuan. Local government bond issuance increased compared to the previous period [28]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, Treasury bond and China Development Bank bond yields generally increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spreads of both narrowed [35]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From July 07 to July 13, 2025, 957 credit bonds were newly issued in the primary market, with a total issuance scale of 1,013.838 billion yuan, a net financing of 176.148 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 77.85% of the total issuance. Credit bonds were mainly issued with a term of 3 - 5 years, and the financial industry had the most issuances [47][49]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, most credit bond yields increased. Among them, the 3 - year AA + rated urban investment bonds and the 7 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest increases [2][56]. 3.2.3 One - week Credit Default Event Review - From July 07 to July 13, 2025, there were no corporate credit bond defaults [57]. 3.3 Major Asset Weekly Observation 3.3.1 Differentiation of European and American Stock Indices - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, US stock indices generally declined, European stock indices generally rose, and Asia - Pacific stock indices showed mixed performance [61]. 3.3.2 Increase in US Treasury Yields - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, US Treasury yields generally increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 6.00BP to 34.00BP [62]. 3.3.3 Strengthening of the US Dollar Index and Weakening of Non - US Currencies - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, the US dollar index rose by 0.91%, and non - US currencies weakened [67]. 3.3.4 Increase in Crude Oil and Gold Prices - From July 04 to July 11, 2025, both crude oil and gold prices increased [69]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - The current "anti - involution" and the previous supply - side structural reform differ in background, policy goals, and beneficiary industries. The previous reform was about "eliminating the old", while the current "anti - involution" is about "establishing the new". The essence of both is to promote the transformation of the economy from "quantity" to "quality" [76][78]. - For the bond market, if the economic data in June shows "weak reality" and policy easing intensifies, interest rates may still decline; if the economic data in June exceeds expectations and the policies at the Politburo meeting at the end of July fall short, beware of bond market corrections. In operation, it is recommended to focus on the coupon strategy, moderately participate in interest - rate bond trading, select high - rated and medium - to - long - term credit bonds, and for convertible bonds, balance the allocation, moderately increase high - cost - performance balanced convertible bonds, and pay attention to the elasticity opportunities of equity - biased convertible bonds [4][78].

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In the first half of the year, social financing increased by approximately 47,351 billion yuan year-on-year, with RMB loans increasing by 2,796 billion yuan and government bonds increasing by 43,100 billion yuan[1] - As of June, M0 increased by 12.0% year-on-year, M1 by 4.6%, and M2 by 8.3%, with the gap between M1 and M2 growth narrowing to -3.7 percentage points[1] - The balance of RMB deposits in June grew by 8.3% year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 10.8% and non-financial enterprise deposits by 3.6%[1] Group 2: Social Financing Structure - The social financing balance in June increased by 8.9% year-on-year, with government bonds growing by 21.3% and contributing 0.1 percentage points to the growth rate[2] - RMB loan growth stabilized at 7.0% year-on-year, contributing 0.01 percentage points to the social financing growth rate[2] - The balance of corporate bonds increased by 3.5% year-on-year, while trust loans grew by 5.5%[2] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - The financial cycle may lead the economic cycle, with M1 and M2 growth rates stabilizing and financial markets showing signs of stability[3] - Attention should be paid to monetary policy operations, financial market changes, and price movements during this phase[3] - Risks include potential changes in policy rhythm and insufficient monetary transmission effects[4]