Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Data - The growth rate of social financing (社融) in June was 8.1%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with a total of 18.1 trillion yuan in the first half of 2024, which is 3.45 trillion yuan less than the same period last year[16] - In June, the net financing of government bonds reached 847.6 billion yuan, significantly higher than the 537.1 billion yuan in the same month last year, indicating a potential increase in government financing support for the real economy in the second half of the year[16] - The total new loans in June amounted to 2.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 920 billion yuan, reflecting a shift in credit structure towards more effective utilization[17] Group 2: Monetary Aggregates and Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of M1 in June was -5.0%, down 0.8 percentage points, while M2 grew by 6.2%, lower than the previous value by 0.8 percentage points[29] - The M1-M2 differential remained consistent at -11.20 percentage points, with social financing growth still positive relative to M2 at 1.90%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value[29] - Household deposits increased by 2.14 trillion yuan in June, which is 533.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year, indicating a decline in both household and corporate deposits[29] Group 3: Investment Recommendations and Risks - The current monetary policy transition requires careful observation of financial data fluctuations, emphasizing the need for a dual adjustment of both quantity and structure in monetary policy[35] - The central bank's recent adjustments to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate and other interest rates aim to enhance liquidity management and stabilize the bond market[37] - Risks include geopolitical tensions, potential over-adjustments in U.S. Federal Reserve policies, and domestic economic uncertainties that could impact market performance[38]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [19][43]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a passenger car interior expert aiming to become a global leader in automotive seating, benefiting from increasing consumer demand for intelligent and comfortable seating [6][17]. - The automotive seating market in China is projected to grow from approximately 97.9 billion yuan in 2023 to about 115.4 billion yuan by 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 5.63% [2][45]. - The company has successfully expanded its product offerings and global presence following the acquisition of Grammer in 2019, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [13][18]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was established in 1996 and initially focused on passenger car seat headrests and armrests, gaining entry into the supply chains of various domestic and international automakers. The acquisition of Grammer in 2019 allowed for product diversification and global expansion [13][24]. Market Dynamics - The automotive seating market is primarily dominated by foreign and joint venture manufacturers, with domestic brands gradually rising. The top five manufacturers held a combined market share of 67% in 2022, indicating substantial room for domestic alternatives [2][54]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported revenue of 21.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.06%. The revenue from commercial vehicle and passenger vehicle seating was approximately 6.49 billion yuan and 0.66 billion yuan, respectively [17][18]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 24.63 billion yuan, 30.06 billion yuan, and 34.04 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 14%, 22%, and 13% respectively [18]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape shows that foreign brands like Lear and Adient dominate the market, while domestic brands are beginning to establish their presence. The report highlights the increasing market share of domestic manufacturers as they leverage technological advancements and customer relationships [53][54]. Growth Drivers - The report identifies that the upgrade of seating configurations and the increasing value per vehicle are significant growth drivers. The value of intelligent seating with features like ventilation and massage is expected to increase by approximately 50% compared to standard seats [50][74].

Macro Liquidity - During the week of July 15-19, the 2-year government bond yield decreased while the 10-year yield increased, widening the yield spread to 0.6533%[16] - The central bank's net cash injection was 12,400 billion CNY, with a net withdrawal of 30 billion CNY in July MLF[16] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 0.07 percentage points to 4.25%, while the dollar index increased to 104.37[20] Market Liquidity - In July 2024, the number of newly established public funds was 49, with a total issuance of 27.498 billion units, averaging 561 million units per fund[24] - The number of newly established ETFs increased to 90 in the first seven months of 2024, compared to 71 in the same period of 2023, with total issuance of approximately 49.3 billion units[29] - Northbound capital saw a net outflow of 19.323 billion CNY during the week, with all styles experiencing outflows, particularly in the consumer sector[36] Financing and Fundraising - In July, there were 3 IPOs raising a total of 2.14 billion CNY, accounting for 21.9% of total fundraising, while private placements raised 4.119 billion CNY, making up 42.2%[47] - The average financing buy amount decreased by 6.85% week-on-week, representing a slight decline in its proportion of total A-share trading volume[42] - The total margin financing balance was 1.44 trillion CNY, down 1.33% from the previous week[42]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its position as a leading player in the power cost software sector and its potential to benefit from the growth in the power information industry [77]. Core Insights - The company's future growth is primarily driven by its power monitoring products, with significant demand expected due to national grid requirements for online monitoring devices for transformers [1]. - The total investment in the national grid during the 14th Five-Year Plan is projected to be nearly 3 trillion yuan, surpassing the previous plan's 2.57 trillion yuan, with a notable 35.7% increase in investment for ultra-high voltage projects [1]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the digitalization of the power industry, with its digital construction business expected to gain from increased investments in grid digitalization [1]. - The environmental protection business is anticipated to maintain stable growth, supported by innovative data procurement models and successful project bids [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in three main segments: software information, environmental smart instruments, and power smart instruments [8]. - The software and information segment accounted for 50.47% of total revenue in 2023, with a revenue of 5.53 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.13% [25][28]. Market Potential - The market for transformer oil chromatography online monitoring devices is estimated to be around 23.047 billion yuan, driven by the need for upgrades and new installations [1]. - The core software and services market for power digitalization is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 19.3%, reaching 83.9 billion yuan by 2025 [17]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 338 million yuan, 419 million yuan, and 515 million yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.5%, 23.9%, and 23.0% respectively [77]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.89 yuan, 1.10 yuan, and 1.36 yuan for the same period, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 16.53, 13.34, and 10.85 [77]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a strong market presence in power cost software, with a market share exceeding 90% in regions outside Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan [1]. - The digital construction business is a key focus area, with significant market potential as the state grid continues to invest in digital transformation [1][43]. Recent Developments - The company has successfully secured multiple contracts for environmental monitoring projects, showcasing its competitive strength in the environmental smart instruments sector [70]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 166 million yuan and a net profit of 41 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year growth of 16.18% and 142.57% respectively [45].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company's stock, indicating an expectation that the stock will outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% within the next six months [53]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its product line to include wafer-level packaging, automotive electronics, and has established a one-stop delivery capability with Bumping, CP, FC, and FT technologies. In 2023, the company achieved significant milestones in expanding production capacity and enhancing service capabilities for existing clients [1]. - The advanced packaging market is projected to grow rapidly, with a global market size expected to reach $52.75 billion by 2030, driven by the acceleration of artificial intelligence and the need for improved chip performance [7][8]. - The company has successfully certified its products in various fields, including automotive electronics and 5G RF communication, and is actively expanding its customer base, including major clients in Taiwan [1]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company focuses on high-end packaging and testing for integrated circuits, with a product range that includes high-density fine-pitch bump flip-chip products, system-in-package (SiP) products, and flat no-lead packaging (QFN/DFN) [63][71]. - Established in November 2017, the company has rapidly grown to become a significant player in the domestic high-end packaging market, achieving substantial revenue growth and production milestones [71]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 727 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.11%, with an overall gross margin of 14.23%, up by 5.84 percentage points compared to the previous year [15]. - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with optimistic projections for Q2 based on market conditions and customer expansion [15]. Product Development - The company is enhancing its product offerings in advanced packaging, with a focus on high-end products that are expected to improve profit margins as semiconductor cycles recover and domestic production rates increase [40]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product portfolio that includes over 1,900 product types, catering to various applications in IoT, automotive electronics, and consumer electronics [64][71].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the textile and apparel industry is maintained at "Overweight" [1]. Core Insights - In June, retail sales of textile and apparel declined by 1.9% year-on-year, indicating slight pressure on domestic demand. The total retail sales reached 40,732 billion yuan, growing by 2.0% year-on-year, which was below the consensus expectation of 4.0% [7][19]. - Adidas reported better-than-expected Q2 2024 results, raising its full-year guidance. The company achieved a currency-neutral revenue growth of 11% and a significant operating profit increase of 97% [7][8]. - The textile manufacturing sector showed strong performance, with companies like Huali Group and Fuchun Dyeing and Weaving forecasting revenue growth of 20%-30% year-on-year for H1 2024 [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Insights - Retail sales in June showed a decline in the apparel category, primarily due to the cancellation of pre-sales on online platforms during mid-year promotions. However, the trend of domestic brand substitution is stabilizing, which may lead to a recovery in apparel sales [7][19]. 2. Industry Dynamics 2.1. Market Performance - From July 15 to July 19, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.92%, while the textile and apparel sector fell by 2.95%, underperforming the index by 4.87 percentage points [10][13]. 2.2. Individual Stock Performance - In the A-share retail sector, 32 out of 113 companies saw stock price increases, while 81 experienced declines. The top gainers included Harsen Co. (+20.96%) and ST Modern (+15.05%), while the largest losers were Huafu Fashion (-14.86%) and Xin'ao Co. (-10.07%) [15][17]. 3. Industry Tracking 3.1. Industry Data Tracking - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June reached 40,732 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.0%. The retail sales of clothing, shoes, and textiles fell by 1.9% [19][26]. - Exports of textiles and apparel in June amounted to 27.4 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%. Textile exports grew by 6.6%, while apparel exports decreased by 0.9% [30]. 3.2. Industry News - The luxury goods sector continues to face challenges, with Burberry issuing a profit warning and changing its CEO due to declining sales [35]. - Swatch Group reported a 14.3% decline in net sales for the first half of 2024, primarily due to weak demand in the Greater China market [36]. 4. Company Announcements - Huali Group expects a net profit increase of 20%-30% for H1 2024, driven by improved inventory levels and new customer collaborations [38]. - Seven Wolves announced a share buyback plan and a cash dividend distribution, reflecting a strategic move to enhance shareholder value [38].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" for the computer sector [2]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is expected to benefit from local government policies, with Chengdu and Changzhou releasing plans to promote its development, aiming for an industry scale exceeding 30 billion yuan by 2026 [7][24]. - OpenAI's launch of the GPT-4o mini model, significantly cheaper than its predecessors, is anticipated to benefit the AI large model and application sector [8][25]. - The AI server market is projected to reach a value of 187 billion USD in 2024, with a growth rate of 69%, driven by increasing demand from cloud service providers [9][28]. - The autonomous driving sector is set to benefit from the deployment of autonomous buses in Shenzhen and Haikou, enhancing public transport services [10][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Insights and Investment Recommendations - The low-altitude economy is highlighted as a key area for investment, with specific companies recommended for attention, such as Lais Information and New Exhibition Technology [10]. - The AI large model and application sector is also recommended, with companies like Softcom Power and Wanxing Technology suggested for potential investment [10]. - The AI computing power sector is expected to grow, with recommendations to focus on companies like Inspur Information and Zhongke Shuguang [10]. - The autonomous driving sector is advised for investment, with companies like Zhongke Chuangda and Desay SV expected to benefit [10]. 2. Market Review - The A-share Shenwan Computer Index fell by 0.26% during the week of July 15-19, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.18 percentage points [11]. - The performance of sub-sectors within the computer industry varied, with software development showing a slight increase of 0.15% [13]. 3. Industry News - Chengdu's government has released measures to enhance low-altitude flight services, providing up to 30 million yuan in support [23]. - Changzhou's three-year action plan aims to develop a high-quality low-altitude economy, targeting the establishment of 150 related enterprises by 2026 [24]. - OpenAI's GPT-4o mini model is now available at significantly reduced prices, which is expected to impact the AI application landscape positively [25]. - The first domestic AI pathology model, PathOrchestra, has been launched, marking a significant advancement in AI pathology diagnostics [27]. - The autonomous driving sector is seeing practical applications with the introduction of autonomous buses in Shenzhen and Haikou [30][31].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Overweight" [5] Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is expected to see an increase in prosperity from 2024 to 2025, with global semiconductor equipment sales projected to grow by 3.4% to $109 billion in 2024 and by 17% to $128 billion in 2025 according to SEMI [3][10] - TSMC's Q2 2024 revenue reached $20.82 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40.1%, with a gross margin of 53.2%, exceeding previous guidance [3][10] - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are showing positive growth trends, with companies like North Huachuang expected to achieve revenue of 11.41-13.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.4%-55.93% [3][10] - The domestic substitution is progressing, with the establishment of the National Fund Phase III in May 2024, having a registered capital of 344 billion yuan, which is larger than previous phases [3][10] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Core Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor industry is projected to improve in 2024-2025, with significant sales growth anticipated [3][10] - Domestic manufacturers are expected to increase their market share as the industry focuses on self-sufficiency and product breakthroughs [3][10] - Recommended companies to watch include North Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, and others [4][11] 2. Market Performance Review - From July 15 to July 19, the CSI 300 index rose by 1.92%, while the A-share machinery equipment index fell by 1.1%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 3.02 percentage points [2][11] - Among the sub-sectors, rail transit equipment II performed well with a rise of 3.82%, while specialized equipment declined by 2.39% [2][11] 3. Key Company Announcements (July 15 - July 19) - North Huachuang and other companies have announced strong revenue forecasts for the first half of 2024, indicating robust growth in the semiconductor equipment sector [3][10] - Significant contracts have been signed by various companies, including major projects in the engineering machinery sector [22][23]

计算机 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 OpenAI 推出价格显著下降的 GPT-4o mini,AI 板块有望受益 ——计算机行业周报(2024.07.15-2024.07.19) 增持(维持) 行业: 计算机 日期: yxzqdatemark 2024年07月23日 分析师: 李行杰 E-mail: lixingjie@yongxingsec. com SAC编号: S1760524010003 分析师: 黄伯乐 E-mail: huangbole@yongxings ec.com SAC编号: S1760520110001 近一年行业与沪深 300 比较 计算机 沪深300 -20% -4% 12% 28% 44% 60% 09/22 11/22 02/23 04/23 07/23 09/23 资料来源:Wind,甬兴证券研究所 相关报告: 《"萝卜快跑"无人订单量大幅增 长,自动驾驶板块有望受益》 ——2024 年 07 月 15 日 《五部门公布智能网联汽车"车路 云一体化"应用试点城市名单,相 关板块或将受益》 ——2024 年 07 月 05 日 《大 ...

有色金属 行业研究/行业周报 证 券 研 究 报 告 行 业 研 究 行 业 周 报 褐皮书显示美国经济放缓将持续,金属价格高位震荡 ——有色行业周报(2024.7.15-2024.7.19) ◼ 核心要点 1、贵金属 褐皮书显示美国经济将放缓,9 月降息概率继续提升,地缘冲突不断, 及美国大选的不确定性加剧,贵金属价格短期预计维持高位震荡,中 长期仍坚定看好。1)、美国最新褐皮书显示经济活动持平或下降的地 区增多。美国联邦储备委员会发布全国经济形势调查报告,与 5 月份 的报告相比,此次又有三个地区的"经济增长持平或放缓"。2024 年 7 月 19 日美联储 9 月降息概率为 98.08%,市场对美联储降息已经充分 预期。2)、地缘冲突不断,拜登退选使得美国大选前景更加不确定, 市场对黄金避险需求的粘性增强。根据新华社,以色列与哈马斯持续 就停火协议展开间接谈判,但以军对加沙地带攻势不减,目前看巴以 冲突仍难以缓解。而拜登的退选加剧了美国大选前景的不确定性,增 强了资金避险需求的粘性。我们认为,短期金价预计将高位震荡,中 长期维度看实际利率下降是金价向好的核心逻辑,看好后续金价及相 应标的表现。 2、工业 ...