电子 行业研究/行业周报 博通推出全新交换机，看好算力产业链 ——电子行业周报（2025.06.02-2025.06.06） ——副标题 ◼ 核心观点 国产替代：虽延长 301 条款豁免期，但坚定看好国产供应链。美国贸 易代表办公室（USTR）宣布，延长对中国加征 25%的 301 条款关税的 豁免期，涵盖的产品包括芯片和半导体的零件，如 GPU、主板和太阳 能电池板，关税豁免期原定于 2025 年 5 月 31 日到期，现已延长至 2025 年 8 月 31 日。我们认为，虽然延长对中国加征 25%的 301 条款 关税的豁免期，但由于国际局势变幻以及政策和供应链等的持续扶持， 我们持续坚定看好国产替代产业链。 本周（6.2-6.6），A 股申万电子指数上涨 3.6%，整体跑赢沪深 300 指 数 2.72pct，跑赢创业板综指数 0.94pct。申万电子二级六大子板块涨 跌幅由高到低分别为：元件(7.46%)、其他电子 II(4.43%)、消费电子 (3.65%)、半导体(3.25%)、光学光电子(2.33%)、电子化学品 II(1.53%)。 从海外市场指数表现来看，整体继续维持强势，海内外指数涨跌幅由 ...

汽车 行业研究/行业周报 5 月全国乘用车市场零售约 193 万辆，同比+13% ——汽车行业周报（2025/06/03~2025/06/06） ◼ 行情回顾 过去一周(2025/06/03~2025/06/06），申万汽车行业上涨 0.17%，表现 弱于同花顺全 A，所有一级行业中涨跌幅排名第 25。细分板块涨跌 幅：过去一周(2025/06/03~2025/06/06），摩托车及其他涨幅最大，商 用车跌幅最大。摩托车及其他上涨 3.58%，汽车服务上涨 1.15%，乘 用车上涨 0.83%，汽车零部件上涨 0.28%，商用车下跌 5.35%。 ◼ 核心数据 数据跟踪： 1）行业总量：据中汽协数据，2025 年 4 月汽车销量约 259.0 万辆， 环比约-11.2%，同比约+9.8%。 2）车企端：据乘联会数据，2025 年 4 月，比亚迪、奇瑞和长安零售 销量位列前三，分别约 26.88 万辆、11.88 万辆和 6.06 万辆，份额分 别约为 29.7%、13.1%和 6.7%。其中小鹏汽车、吉利汽车分别同比约 +274.0%、+141.7%。 3）周度数据： 据乘联会数据，2025 年 5 月 1- ...

农林牧渔 行业研究/行业周报 猪价继续下探，看好水产料投资机会 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250603-0606） 本周（2025/6/3-6/6）农林牧渔板块跑赢大盘 0.03 个百分点。本周申万 农林牧渔指数收于 2,682.22，周上涨 0.91%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.03 个百分点。在 31 个申万一级行业中，农业板块周涨跌幅排名第 20 位。 从农林牧渔子板块来看，本周（2025/6/3-6/6）渔业板块上涨 1.34%， 表现最佳；其次，种植业、饲料、农产品加工、养殖业板块本周分别 上涨 1.23%、1.15%、1.10%、0.90%；动物保健板块本周下跌 1.51%。 行业动态跟踪： 【生猪养殖】加速降重出栏，猪价继续下探。伴随肥标价差倒挂，近 期规模猪企进入主动降重去库存阶段，市场供给偏宽松，需求端相对 平稳，猪价持续下探，养殖利润进一步收窄。截止 2025 年 6 月 6 日， 全国生猪均价 14.05 元/公斤，周环比下跌 2.43%，较 2024 年同期下跌 23.89%；自繁自养利润为 33.83 元/头，周环比下降 1.82 元/头，外购 仔猪养殖利润为-120.80 元/头 ...

迪哲医药(688192) 公司研究/公司点评 ASCO2025 数据更新，DZD8586 表现优异 ——迪哲医药（688192.SH）点评报告 ◼ 事件 公司于 2025 年 ASCO 大会公布自主研发的两款源头创新药物 DZD8586 和 DZD6008 在 B 细胞非霍奇金淋巴瘤和非小细胞肺癌领域 的三项最新研究进展。 ◼ 核心观点 DZD8586 在 CLL/SLL 适应症上实现优异的 ORR 表现 根据公司公告，本次大会更新了截至 2025/04/04 的非共价 LYN/BTK 双靶点抑制剂 DZD8586 在经治 CLL/SLL 上的临床数据（共入组 51 例 患者），50mg 剂量下的 ORR 高达 84.2%，BTK 抑制剂/Bcl-2 抑制剂 /BTK 降解剂经治的 ORR 分别为 82.4%/83.3%/50%的肿瘤缓解，9 个 月 DOR 率为 83.3%，mPFS 尚未成熟。 对照公司在 ASH2024 的数据，50mg 剂量截止 2024/10/20 的 ORR 为 57.1%；在 ASCO2025 摘要更新 50mg 剂量截止 2025/01/03 的 ORR 为 64.3%，表明随 ...

丰茂股份(301459) 公司研究/公司点评 对外投资落地，强化产能布局 ——公司对外投资公告点评 ◼ 事件描述 公司发布对外投资公告。公司拟与嘉兴高新技术产业开发区管理委员 会签订《嘉兴汽车零部件生产基地投资合作协议书》，拟在嘉兴高新技 术产业开发区购置土地，建设嘉兴汽车零部件生产基地项目。本项目 公司总投资额预计不超过人民币 15 亿元（最终投资金额以项目建设 实际投入为准）。 ◼ 核心观点 新建基地助力公司产能提升，强化产能布局 公司成长逻辑：立足主业传动系统，打造新领域增长极 汽车传统业务领域：1）出海竞争：公司泰国生产基地将于 2025 年正 式投产，主要面向东南亚及欧美市场。工厂将采用本地化供应与自动 化生产结合的模式，降低关税和物流成本，同时依托"米其林"品牌授 权，拓展海外经销商网络。泰国工厂的建成将提升公司国际市场份额。 2）进口替代：传动系统产品切入自主及合资品牌供应链，已配套上汽 通用五菱、上汽集团、一汽集团、吉利汽车等主流品牌多款车型，国 内整车配套市场逐步实现进口替代。 汽车新业务领域：1）产能扩张：2025 年，公司将在山东济南投建商 用车零部件生产基地，重点配套重汽、一汽、北汽福 ...

石油石化 行业研究/行业周报 关注 OPEC 增产进度，油价或延续震荡 ——石油化工行业周报（20250526-20250530） ◼ 市场行情回顾 市场表现 本周（20250526-20250530）中信石油石化板块上涨约 0.37%，上证综 合指数下滑约 0.03%，同上证综合指数相比，石油石化板块领先约 0.39 个百分点。子板块方面，石油石化子板块涨跌互现，其中工程服务、 油田服务等子板块涨幅居前。 本周（20250526-20250530）石油石化板块领涨个股包括恒通股份、洪 田股份、康普顿、海油发展、科力股份等；领跌个股包括广聚能源、 东方盛虹、润贝航科、蒙泰高新、恒力石化等。其中民营大炼化公司 周度涨跌幅如下：恒逸石化（+0.50%）、荣盛石化（+0.11%）、桐昆股 份（-1.10%）、新凤鸣（-1.89%）、恒力石化（-2.57%）、东方盛虹（-4.49%） 等。 ◼ 核心观点 上游板块方面，上周国际油价有所下滑。从周度数据以及 EIA 短期展 望数据来看，尽管未来两年美国原油产量维持增长，但是国际油价重 心仍有望中高位震荡，持续利好上游油气公司。油服方面，北美活跃 钻机数周环比下滑，同比减 ...

Industrial Performance - In the first four months, industrial enterprises' cumulative revenue increased by 3.2% year-on-year, down from 3.4% in the previous period[2] - Cumulative profit for industrial enterprises rose by 1.4% year-on-year, up from 0.8% previously, with April's profit showing a 3.0% increase year-on-year[2] - Private industrial enterprises achieved a cumulative profit growth of 4.3%, recovering from a decline of 0.3% in the previous period[2] Price and Inventory Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for April showed a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, continuing a downward trend for two consecutive months[3] - Cumulative inventory of finished products in industrial enterprises increased by 3.9% year-on-year, down from 4.2% previously, marking the first decline since November 2024[3] PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for May was reported at 49.5%, slightly up from 49.0% in April, with the production index exceeding the critical threshold[3] - The new orders index for manufacturing PMI in May was 49.8%, an increase from 49.2% in April, while the export orders index rose to 47.5% from 44.7%[3] Employment and Sector Performance - The employment index for manufacturing in May was 48.1%, up from 47.9% in April, indicating a slight improvement in employment conditions[4] - The construction PMI for May was 51.0%, down from 51.9% in April, while the services PMI remained stable at 50.2%[4] Economic Outlook - June 18 is identified as a critical observation point for economic and policy developments, following the release of key economic data and the Federal Reserve's meeting[5] - The report highlights risks including external uncertainties and potential delays in counter-cyclical policies[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Deposit rate decline helps ease banks' net interest margin in the short - term and may lead deposits to flow into the stock and bond markets in the long - term. The decline of deposit rates marks a new stage of China's interest rate liberalization. The bond market presents structural opportunities, and investors should grasp short - term liquidity dividends while being vigilant about the mid - term stock - bond seesaw effect [4][67]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest - rate Bonds 3.1.1 Liquidity Observation - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the central bank conducted 17,925.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 5,630.00 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 12,295.00 billion yuan. Most inter - bank and exchange - market fund prices rose, with some exceptions like DR001 and DR007 [16][21][23]. 3.1.2 Primary Market Issuance - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the primary market of interest - rate bonds issued 9,683.22 billion yuan, with a total repayment of 4,202.43 billion yuan of matured bonds and a net financing of 5,480.79 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds increased compared to the previous period [28]. 3.1.3 Secondary Market Trading - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, most treasury bond yields declined, and the term spread widened. The 10 - year treasury bond yield rose by 4.15BP, while the 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, and 7 - year yields declined. Most China Development Bank bond yields also declined, with the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowing [34]. 3.2 Credit Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market Issuance - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the issuance scale of credit bonds increased. A total of 881 credit bonds were newly issued, with a total issuance scale of 12,482.16 billion yuan, a net financing of 1,296.54 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of the number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 78.13% of the total issuance scale. The financial industry had the largest number of bond issuances [2][43][45]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trading - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the maturity yields of credit bonds declined overall. Among them, the 5 - year AA - rated urban investment bonds had the largest decline of 8.84BP, and the 7 - year AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes had the largest decline of 6.83BP [2][53]. 3.2.3 Weekly Credit Default Event Review - From May 19 to May 25, 2025, the credit bonds of one enterprise defaulted [56]. 3.3 Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.3.1 Most European and American Stock Indices Declined - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the three major US stock indices declined. European stock indices were divided, and most Asia - Pacific stock indices declined [3][57][58]. 3.3.2 US Treasury Yields Rose Overall - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the yields of 1, 3, 5, 7, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened [3][60]. 3.3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakened, and Non - US Currencies Strengthened - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, the US dollar index fell by 1.84%, and non - US currencies strengthened [3][62]. 3.3.4 Crude Oil Prices Declined, and Gold Prices Rose - From May 16 to May 23, 2025, gold prices rose, and crude oil prices declined [3][64]. 3.4 Investment Suggestions - Deposit rate decline helps ease banks' net interest margin in the short - term and may lead deposits to flow into the stock and bond markets in the long - term. Investors should grasp short - term liquidity dividends in the bond market, be vigilant about the mid - term stock - bond seesaw effect, and pay attention to the upward pressure on certificate of deposit rates [4][67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The international oil prices have seen a decline, with Brent crude settling at approximately $64.78 per barrel, down 1.16% week-over-week, and WTI crude at about $61.53 per barrel, down 1.85% week-over-week [18][20] - Despite a projected increase in U.S. crude oil production over the next two years, international oil prices are expected to remain stable at mid-high levels, benefiting upstream oil and gas companies [29] - The North American active rig count has decreased week-over-week, with a notable year-over-year decline, indicating potential growth in the oil service sector [30] - The refining sector shows signs of recovery, with significant price differentials for products like gasoline and ethylene, suggesting improved performance for refining companies [34] - Polyester market dynamics indicate a recovery potential for long filament enterprises, with an increase in POY price differentials and overall inventory levels rising [42] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The CITIC petrochemical sector declined by approximately 0.18% during the week of May 19-23, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.39 percentage points [15] - Key stocks that led the gains included Bohui Co., Huajin Co., and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, while stocks like Runbei Hangke and Meihua Shihua saw declines [16][17] Upstream Oil & Gas Sector - The report highlights that U.S. crude oil production is expected to reach 13.4 million barrels per day in 2025 and nearly 13.5 million barrels per day in 2026, indicating a robust supply outlook [31] - The report suggests monitoring companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil for potential investment opportunities [29] Oil Service Sector - The report notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in North America, with a year-over-year drop of 34 rigs, while global drilling platform numbers are expected to have room for growth [30] - Companies such as CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering are recommended for investment consideration [30] Midstream Refining Sector - Domestic refined oil prices have seen slight increases, with gasoline prices rising by approximately 19 RMB/ton and diesel prices by about 131 RMB/ton [34] - The report indicates a significant recovery potential for refining companies, particularly those actively planning new capacities [34] Terminal Polyester Sector - The report indicates that the POY price differential has increased by approximately 14 RMB/ton, suggesting a recovery potential for long filament companies [42] - Companies like Xinfengming and Tongkun Co. are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [42] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes within the petrochemical sector, including the focus on energy central enterprises, growth in upstream capital expenditures, accelerated resource development in Xinjiang, and new capacity planning by refining companies [54]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Maintain Buy" [5] Core Viewpoints - The macro environment remains volatile, with short-term raw material supply tightness difficult to alleviate, and significant pressure on the smelting sector. The price of tin is expected to maintain strong fluctuations in the near term. Over a longer period, global tin supply faces challenges in stability and sustainability, while domestic consumption stimulus policies are expected to support growth in tin demand. The development of artificial intelligence and new energy vehicles also presents growth potential for global demand. Relevant stocks include Tin Industry Co., Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, and Xingye Silver Tin [3][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Summary - This week, the price of refined tin experienced slight fluctuations, with LME tin closing at $32,819 per ton and SHFE tin at ¥264,600 per ton, reflecting a change of +0.01% and -0.06% respectively compared to last week. The spot price of tin remained stable at ¥265,500 per ton [1][18]. 2. Industry Situation - The macro environment is expected to remain volatile due to proposed tariffs by the U.S. on the EU. The smelting sector is under pressure, with low operating rates in key tin-producing provinces. The average operating rate for smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is at 56.44%. The processing fees for tin concentrate remain at historical low levels, impacting profit margins for smelting enterprises [2][14]. 3. Weekly Tin Stocks and Price Performance - As of May 23, 2025, the total social inventory of SMM tin ingots was 10,333 tons, an increase of 374 tons from the previous week. The combined inventory of LME and SHFE tin ingots was 11,110 tons, a decrease of 42 tons from the previous week [24]. The weekly performance of relevant stocks showed Tin Industry Co. up by 1.07%, Huaxi Nonferrous Metals up by 1.15%, and Xingye Silver Tin down by 1.66% [16][17].