Market Overview - The current market indices show a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 2,717.12, down by 0.17% [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 8,054.24, down by 0.63% [1] - The CSI 300 Index closed at 3,172.47, down by 0.43% [1] Interest Rate Derivatives Report - The inverted shape of the interest rate swap curve implies strong expectations for interest rate cuts [2] - The FR007 interest rate swaps are primarily used by institutional investors for hedging and trading, indicating a mature pricing mechanism that accurately reflects market expectations for future funding rates [2] Inversion Implications - According to no-arbitrage pricing theory, the probability of a decrease in the funding rate is significant: - 100% probability of at least a 5 basis points (bp) drop within 3 months - 53% probability of a 5 bp drop within 6 months, with a 47% chance of a 10 bp drop - 100% probability of at least a 15 bp drop within 9 months - 100% probability of at least a 20 bp drop within 1 year - 77% probability of an additional 5 bp drop after 1 year [3] Future Outlook - The current inverted interest rate swap curve is unprecedented in historical context, reflecting a weak fundamental backdrop and a cautious macro policy stance [4] - It is anticipated that the curve will continue to flatten, with at least one 10 bp rate cut expected within the year [4] - Predictions suggest that the 10-year government bond yield may drop to 2.0% and the 30-year yield to 2.1% [4]

研究早观点 2024 年 9 月 12 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证宏观策略】海外经济周观察（20240902~20240908） 国内市场主要指数 【山证通信】广和通（300638.SZ）-业绩有望企稳回升，发力机器人打 造多元增长曲线 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,721.80 | -0.82 | | 深证成指 | 8,105.38 | 0.39 | | 沪深 300 | 3,186.13 | -0.30 | | 中小板指 | 5,251.87 | 0.62 | | 创业板指 | 1,558.33 | 1.19 | | 科创 50 | 664.33 | 0.65 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证新股】新股周报（2024.09.09-2024.09.13）-9 月份双创板块新股 首日涨幅和开板估值均下降 【宏观策略】北交所 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the companies discussed [1]. Core Insights - The new stock market activity has decreased, with the opening valuations of new stocks in the dual innovation sector in September declining compared to August [1][7]. - The first-day price increases and opening valuations for new stocks in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market have decreased, while the main board's opening valuations have slightly increased [1][22]. Summary by Sections New Stock Market Activity - In September, the new stock market saw a decline in activity, with only 3 stocks recording positive price changes, representing 8.82% of new listings, a significant drop from 84.38% previously [1][7]. - A total of 286 new stocks have been listed since the beginning of 2023, raising a total of 373.58 billion yuan [7]. Sci-Tech Innovation Board - The newly listed stock Yinos registered a first-day increase of 60.28% with an opening valuation of 24.45 times earnings. However, no other new stocks recorded positive price changes during the week [1][8]. - The median first-day price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for new listings in August was 15.40 times, down from 30.20 times in July [10][17]. Growth Enterprise Market - The newly listed stock Fute Technology saw a first-day increase of 227.93% with an opening valuation of 52.68 times earnings. However, several stocks, including Jialiqi and Guoketiancheng, experienced significant declines [15][17]. - The median first-day PE for new listings in August was 16.82 times, down from 23.99 times in July [17]. Main Board - The newly listed stock Sudar recorded a first-day increase of 56.91% with an opening valuation of 21.99 times earnings. However, it also faced a significant decline in the following week [19][22]. - The median first-day PE for new listings in August was 11.86 times, slightly up from 10.02 times in July [22]. Key New Stocks - The report highlights several key new stocks to watch, including Keping (semiconductors), Lianyun Technology (solid-state drive controllers), and Laplace (photovoltaic cell equipment) [27][28]. - A list of notable new stocks that have been listed since January 2023 includes Kema Technology, Longtu Guangzhao, and Aidi Te [30].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-B" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming months [1]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the peptide industry, with steady growth driven by the increasing demand for GLP-1 peptide raw materials. The report highlights the company's ongoing investment in research and development, as well as its expanding production capacity for peptide raw materials [1][3]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 199 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 22 million yuan, up 8.1%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items surged by 106.6% to 19 million yuan. Operating cash flow also increased by 56.0% to 26 million yuan [1]. Market Data - As of September 10, 2024, the company's stock closed at 28.73 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 34.40 yuan and a low of 16.46 yuan. The company has three R&D products registered for approval and is actively working on 18 projects [1]. Financial Projections - The company expects its revenue to grow from 568 million yuan in 2024 to 854 million yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.6%, 24.0%, and 21.2% respectively. Net profit is projected to increase from 101 million yuan in 2024 to 153 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 42.9%, 24.7%, and 22.3% respectively [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides various financial metrics, including a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 32.1 in 2024 to 21.0 in 2026, and a P/B ratio declining from 3.4 to 2.7 over the same period. The company's gross margin is expected to decrease slightly from 61.7% in 2024 to 60.3% in 2026 [3][6]. Research and Development - The company has significantly increased its R&D expenditure, which reached 24 million yuan in the first half of 2024, marking an 80.9% increase. This investment is aimed at developing new peptide formulations and expanding its product pipeline [1][4]. Market Expansion - The company is expanding its product offerings in various therapeutic areas, including digestion, immunity, oncology, diabetes, obstetrics, and aesthetic medicine. The demand for GLP-1 raw materials is expected to drive further growth in the company's raw material and domestic formulation businesses [1][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% relative to the benchmark index within the next 6-12 months [3]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in its automotive safety business, with a significant increase in new orders, particularly in the new energy sector, which accounted for over 60% of new orders in the first half of 2024 [2]. - The company's revenue for H1 2024 reached 27.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.24%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 640 million yuan, up 33.9% year-on-year [1][2]. - The gross margin for H1 2024 was reported at 15.5%, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved profitability across its business segments [2]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a total revenue of 49.793 billion yuan in 2022, with projections of 55.728 billion yuan for 2023 and 60.625 billion yuan for 2024, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.8% from 2023 to 2024 [4]. - The net profit for 2022 was 394 million yuan, with projections of 1.083 billion yuan for 2023 and 1.558 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [4]. - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 15.1% in 2023 to 16.2% in 2024, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4]. Order and Production Insights - The company secured new orders worth approximately 50.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, with the automotive safety segment contributing over 45 billion yuan of this total [2]. - The production capacity for automotive safety components is set to increase significantly, with the completion of a new facility expected to produce 4 million steering wheels and 10 million airbags annually [2]. Valuation Metrics - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 12.8, 9.6, and 7.6 respectively, suggesting that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth potential [3][4]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 6.5% in 2023 to 8.9% in 2024, indicating improved profitability and efficiency in utilizing shareholder equity [4][6].

Group 1 - 60% of companies achieved revenue growth, but profitability weakened due to macroeconomic factors and international situations [2][10][25] - The average revenue of companies in the North Exchange for H1 2024 was 313 million, with a median of 177 million, showing a slight increase but a slowdown in growth [2][10][19] - The average net profit for H1 2024 was 21.51 million, with a median of 15.13 million, indicating a decline in both scale and growth rate [2][19][25] Group 2 - The electric power equipment sector maintained high growth, while the automotive, electronics, light industry, and home appliance sectors showed positive trends [2][37][41] - In H1 2024, the electric power equipment, basic chemicals, and mechanical equipment sectors contributed 58% of total revenue, with home appliances and light industry showing rapid revenue growth [2][41][43] - The automotive sector experienced improved performance metrics, with increased average revenue, net profit, and profit margins compared to the previous year [37][41][43] Group 3 - Investment recommendations focus on high dividend, high growth, and low valuation stocks, with specific companies highlighted for their favorable conditions [3][10] - Companies such as Haidaer, Lijia Technology, and Shisheng Intelligent are noted for their high dividend yields, while Kete Co., Hefei High-Tech, and others are recognized for their low valuations [3][10] - High-growth companies identified include Haosheng Electronics, Derui Lithium Battery, and Changhong Energy, which have shown significant revenue and profit growth [3][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock price over the next 6-12 months [2][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue growth, achieving 12.56% gross margin in the first half of 2024, despite facing challenges such as increased competition and rising labor costs [1][3]. - The acquisition of Tongfang Computer has contributed to a revenue increase of 39.10 billion yuan, accounting for 31.22% of total revenue in the first half of 2024 [1]. - The company is deepening its collaboration with Huawei in both hardware and software ecosystems, which is expected to drive future performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 125.26 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.98%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -1.54 billion yuan, a decrease of 176.17% [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 70.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61.66%, with a net profit of 1.23 billion yuan, down 13.25% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are projected to be 0.72, 0.90, and 1.11 yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 46.53, 37.22, and 30.10 [5][6]. Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements, with a decrease in total expense ratio by 3.42 percentage points compared to the previous year [1]. - New product launches based on Huawei's Kunpeng and Ascend processors are part of the company's strategy to enhance its hardware offerings [1]. - The company is also involved in the development of open-source software solutions, contributing to the OpenHarmony project and launching its own operating systems [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company holds a leading position in the industry with long-term stable cooperation with high-quality domestic and international enterprises [1] - The company's carbon nanotube conductive paste accounts for 46.7% of the Chinese market share, and it is expected to exceed 50% in the next two years [1] - The company is advancing cooperation with Panasonic, planning to supply Panasonic's overseas factories starting from Q4 2025, and is in the process of onboarding more overseas customers [1] - The company's Q2 shipments increased by 40% quarter-over-quarter, with H1 carbon nanotube shipments reaching 36,000 tons [2] - The company's profitability is expected to improve in Q3 due to an increase in high-margin product orders [2] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's ROE was 4.08% [1] - The company achieved revenue of 650 million yuan in H1 2024, a year-over-year increase of 0.88%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 28.5% [1] - Q2 revenue was 340 million yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 6.3%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 62 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 23.1% [1] - The company's carbon nanotube conductive paste achieved revenue of 640 million yuan in H1 2024, with a gross margin of 36.6% [2] - The average price of carbon nanotubes in H1 2024 was approximately 18,000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 7,000 yuan/ton and a net profit of 3,000 yuan/ton [2] - In Q2, the average price of carbon nanotubes decreased by 21.7% quarter-over-quarter to 16,000 yuan/ton, with a gross profit of 6,000 yuan/ton and a net profit of 3,000 yuan/ton [2] Capacity Expansion - The company's US facility, with an annual production capacity of 10,000 tons of carbon nanotube conductive paste, is expected to be operational in Q4 2025, with capacity release in H2 2026 [2] - The Meishan production base in Sichuan is expected to be operational within the next year, gradually increasing capacity [2] Financial Forecasts - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.92, 1.22, and 1.49 yuan, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is expected to be 320, 420, and 520 million yuan, respectively [1] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 22.5, 16.9, and 13.8, respectively [1] - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1,647, 2,046, and 2,446 million yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 17.3%, 24.3%, and 19.6%, respectively [3] - Net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 316, 420, and 515 million yuan, with year-over-year growth rates of 6.4%, 32.7%, and 22.6%, respectively [3] - Gross margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 34.2%, 35.1%, and 35.1%, respectively [3] Valuation Metrics - The company's P/E ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 22.5, 16.9, and 13.8, respectively [3] - The company's P/B ratio for 2024-2026 is projected to be 2.5, 2.2, and 1.9, respectively [3] - ROE for 2024-2026 is expected to be 10.6%, 12.6%, and 13.6%, respectively [3]

资料来源：最闻 研究早观点 2024 年 9 月 11 日 星期三 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证通信】天孚通信（300394.SZ）：高速光模块无源和有源需求均 保持强劲，期待 1.6T 新产品上量 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | 指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,744.19 | 0.28 | | 深证成指 | 8,073.83 | 0.13 | | 沪深 300 | 3,195.76 | 0.09 | | 中小板指 | 5,219.49 | 0.40 | | 创业板指 | 1,539.98 | 0.06 | | 科创 50 | 660.01 | 0.78 | 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com 【今日要点】 【山证宏观】2024 年 8 月物价点评：PPI 跌幅扩大 【行业评论】通信：山西证券通信行业周观点：AI 的预期是否发生了 调整？建议关注超跌反弹机会 【山证通信】中际旭创（300308.SZ ...

证券研究报告 通信 周跟踪（20240902-20240906） 领先大市-A(维持) AI 的预期是否发生了调整？建议关注超跌反弹机会 2024 年 9 月 10 日 行业研究/行业周报 通信行业近一年市场表现 相关报告： 1）我们认为英伟达 2025 年业绩预期仍然强劲。在同环比基数扩大以及 Hopper 向 Blackwell 过渡阶段可能短暂出现季度环比增速下滑。目前英伟达保持一年一代新 品的迭代速度，供应链需要新工艺、新产品产能爬坡过程，下游客户需求的产品结 构也会随之调整。英伟达表示，"Hopper"的需求依然强劲，人们对 Blackwell 芯片 的期待也难以置信。 环比高增，再论 AI 的主线和支线-周跟 踪（20240826-20240901） 2024.9.4 【山证通信】——英伟达财报继续 入网流量新预期，同时建议关注 AIDC 和 DCI-周跟踪（20240819-20240825） 2024.8.26 【山证通信】《黑神话悟空》带来接 2）GB200 的量产时间略有延迟但并不影响明年预期，短期市场回调创造了极 佳的超跌修复机会。英伟达在业绩会上表示，已完成对 Blackwell 掩膜 ...