新能源动力系统 202406 锂电产业链月报 领先大市-A(维持) 2024 年 6 月我国新能源汽车销量 104.9 万辆，同比+30.1% 2024 年 7 月 26 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 新能源动力系统板块近一年市场表现 投资要点： 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 300750.SZ 宁德时代 买入-A 【山证新能源动力系统】6 月国内电池产 量同比+28.7%，环比+2.2%-行业周报 （20240707-20240714） 2024.7.15 【山证新能源动力系统】宁德时代正式 推出商用动力电池品牌"天行"-锂电行 业周报（20240631-20240707） 2024.7.8 肖索 执业登记编码：S0760522030006 邮箱：xiaosuo@sxzq.com 杜羽枢 执业登记编码：S0760523110002 邮箱：duyushu@sxzq.com 1 新能源车：6 月，我国新能源汽车销量 104.9 万辆，同比+30.1%。根据 中汽协，2024 年 6 月，新能源汽车产销分别完成 100.3 万辆和 104.9 万辆， 同比分别+28.1%和+30.1%，市场占有率达到 41.1% ...

煤炭 煤炭进口数据拆解 领先大市-A(维持) 6 月进口继续补缺，关注政策方向变化 2024 年 7 月 26 日 行业研究/行业月度报告 投资要点： 数据拆解： 量价：2024 年 1-6 月进口量同比增长。2024 年 1-6 月，煤及褐煤累计进 口量实现 2.50 亿吨，同比增长 13%；6 月单月实现进口量 4460 万吨，同比 增长 11.86%，环比增长 1.78%。2024 年 1-6 月全口径煤炭进口均价 101 美元 /吨，较去年均价降 9.46%。6 月进口煤价格 97 美元/吨，同比降 13.66%，环 比增 1%。 资料来源：最闻 其中：动力煤方面，1-6 月进口同比增长，价格同比下降；6 月进口同 比增长，价格同比下降。炼焦煤方面，1-6 月进口同比增长，价格同比下降； 首选股票 评级 6 月进口同比增长，价格同比下降。褐煤方面，1-6 月进口量同比增长，进口 价格同比下降；6 月进口同比增长，价格同比下降。无烟煤方面，1-6 月进口 量同比下降，进口价格同比下降；6 月进口同比下降，价格同比下降。 点评与投资建议： 24 年 1-6 月煤炭进口数据整体略超预期，进口数据反应国内煤炭 ...

研究早观点 | --- | --- | --- | |----------|----------|----------| | | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,886.74 | -0.52 | | 深证成指 | 8,474.70 | -0.22 | | 300 | 3,399.27 | -0.55 | | 中小板指 | 5,481.60 | 0.00 | | 创业板指 | 1,644.45 | -0.39 | | 50 | 713.88 | 0.08 | 研究早观点 原油：基本面向好，呈上行态势。2024 年上半年，地缘政治局势、美联储降息预期变化及需求预期使得原 油价格走势波动幅度较大，随着夏季需求旺季的到来，国际油价呈震荡偏多走势。6 月初 OPEC+延长 减产政策至 9 月底，叠加夏季石油需求旺季来临，市场对需求预期乐观，为原油提供支撑。展望下半 年，地缘方面，中东局势或持续博弈；供应面上，OPEC+、俄罗斯减产继续，美国采购原油补充石油 战略储备将于三季度交付，进一步加快市场上原油的去库存；需求面上，当前市场机构对原油需求预 期乐观，加上三季度为传统意义上的全球原油消费旺季。总体原油 ...

基础化工 2024 年中期策略报告 同步大市-A(维持) 资源防守，成长反击 2024 年 7 月 25 日 行业研究/行业中期策略 基础化工板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 01164.HK 中广核矿 600160.SH 巨化股份 买入-B 603379.SH 三美股份 买入-B 000830.SZ 鲁西化工 买入-B 600309.SH 万华化学 买入-B 300910.SZ 瑞丰新材 买入-B 688300.SH 联瑞新材 买入-B 688102.SH 斯瑞新材 买入-A 600469.SH 风神股份 买入-B 301283.SZ 聚胶股份 买入-B 分析师： 执业登记编码：S0760523110004 邮箱：lixuankun@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 刘聪颖 投资要点： 季度为传统意义上的全球原油消费旺季。总体原油基本面预期向好，Brent 油价将在 80-90 美元/桶波动。 原油：基本面向好，呈上行态势。2024 年上半年，地缘政治局势、美联 储降息预期变化及需求预期使得原油价格走势波动幅度较大，随着夏 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is in the "0 to 1" stage, with significant potential attracting numerous entrants, led by companies like Tesla[3] - The 3D printing industry has entered the "1 to N" phase, focusing on industrial applications such as shoe molds and consumer electronics[3] - The mechanical equipment sector has shown a downward trend in 2024 H1, with a cumulative decline of 22.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.0 percentage points[53] Group 2: Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, the engineering machinery sector was the only sub-industry to show positive growth, with a cumulative increase of 8.9%[12] - The railway sector saw passenger numbers reach 1.735 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.2% from January to May 2024[7] - The total fixed asset investment in railways reached 228.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 10.9%[69] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies with robust core businesses and strategic positioning in the humanoid robot and 3D printing sectors are expected to succeed[3] - Recommended stocks include Tier 1 manufacturers like Sanhua Intelligent Control and Top Group in the humanoid robot space[25] - The railway equipment sector is anticipated to benefit from increased passenger demand and equipment updates, with a focus on companies like China CRRC and Times Electric[62]

机械板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：最闻 首选股票 评级 688187.SH 时代电气 买入-A 688305.SH 科德数控 买入-A 300161.SZ 华中数控 买入-A 688697.SH 纽威数控 买入-A 【山证运输设备】6 月货运创历史新高， 暑运数据支撑客运高需求-轨交装备行业 月度分析 2024.7.22 【山证运输设备】需求向上与设备更新 共振，轨交装备未来可期-【山证机械】 轨交行业动态分析 2024.6.30 刘斌 执业登记编码：S0760524030001 邮箱：liubin3@sxzq.com 徐风 执业登记编码：S0760519110003 邮箱：xufeng@sxzq.com 杨晶晶 执业登记编码：S0760519120001 邮箱：yangjingjing@sxzq.com 格局为先，行稳致远 投资要点： 在当前的企业经营与投资假设中，针对中游制造业存在"增长-空间-格 局"的不可能三角。针对成熟市场，我们更加看重竞争格局，在行业空间、 增速的边际变化的基础上，寻找结构性机会，挖掘能够增长且具有持续性的 标的。在增量市场，我们期待新技术、新装备、新材料能够带来新一轮的产 业革命 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-B" rating for the company [2][20]. Core Views - The report highlights the improvement in the polyester industrial yarn market and the advantages of the company's expansion into Vietnam [2][20]. - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in demand, particularly in the automotive sector, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and overseas tire inventory replenishment [7][18]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: 5,512 million - 2023: 5,622 million (YoY growth of 2.0%) - 2024: 6,058 million (YoY growth of 7.7%) - 2025: 6,377 million (YoY growth of 5.3%) - 2026: 6,602 million (YoY growth of 3.5%) [5][20]. - Net profit forecasts are: - 2022: 332 million - 2023: 349 million (YoY growth of 5.1%) - 2024: 420 million (YoY growth of 20.2%) - 2025: 459 million (YoY growth of 9.3%) - 2026: 487 million (YoY growth of 6.2%) [5][20]. - The report indicates a stable gross margin around 16.5% for the forecast period [5][20]. Market Dynamics - The domestic demand for polyester industrial yarn is showing signs of recovery, with a projected consumption of 83.29 million tons in the first half of 2024, reflecting a 15.8% YoY increase [6]. - The report notes that the company has a competitive edge due to its international layout, particularly in non-European and American markets, where exports have increased significantly [8][9]. Industry Trends - The report emphasizes the rising demand for tire cord fabric and automotive yarn, driven by the growth in new energy vehicle production and exports [7][18]. - The company has successfully maintained a low anti-dumping tax rate compared to competitors, enhancing its export competitiveness [9].

汇通 研究早观点 2024 年 7 月 25 日 星期四 市场走势 资料来源：最闻 【山证农业】中宠股份公司深度报告-国内多元化宠粮品牌运营头部玩 家，内修外练深挖市场 指数 沪深 科创 资料来源：最闻 分析师： 李召麒 执业登记编码：S0760521050001 电话：010-83496307 邮箱：lizhaoqi@sxzq.com | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|----------|----------| | 国内市场主要指数 | 收盘 | 涨跌幅 % | | 上证指数 | 2,901.95 | -0.46 | | 深证成指 | 8,493.10 | -1.32 | | 300 | 3,418.17 | -0.63 | | 中小板指 | 5,481.47 | -1.22 | | 创业板指 | 1,650.91 | -1.23 | | 50 | 713.32 | -1.08 | 【今日要点】 【行业评论】通信：周跟踪（20240715-20240719）-光模块、服务器 等环比增长，会议决议支持人工智能卫星互联网发展 【公司评论】中兴通讯(000063.S ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [1]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing growth in light modules and servers, supported by decisions to advance artificial intelligence and satellite internet development [1][3]. - Light module exports showed significant month-on-month growth in June, with leading companies forecasting substantial profit increases [10][12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving business upgrades and the recovery of the server industry, suggesting a focus on related supply chains [13]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Viewpoints and Investment Recommendations - Light module exports in June continued to grow month-on-month, with Jiangsu, Sichuan, and Hubei showing year-on-year increases of 99.2%, 287.5%, and 117.2% respectively [10]. - Major companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Newyi, and Tianfu Communication forecast net profit increases of 250%, 181%, and 167% respectively [10]. - The report highlights the unique advantages of light modules and the potential for accelerated growth in the second half of the year due to increased GPU supply [10]. 2. Market Overview - The overall market saw an increase during the week of July 15-19, 2024, with the STAR Market index rising by 4.33% [15][16]. - The communication index, however, fell by 3.30%, indicating mixed performance within the sector [16]. - The top-performing segments included cloud computing (+8.1%), IoT (+5.1%), and operators (+3.8%) [16]. 3. Company Performance - Notable stock performances included Dongtu Technology (+10.75%), Kingsoft Office (+6.53%), and China Mobile (+4.90%) [25]. - Conversely, companies like Zhongji Xuchuang and Yinhantong experienced declines of -10.09% and -8.58% respectively [25]. 4. Industry News - The report discusses the approval of the first domestic all-electric communication satellite, which marks a significant milestone for China's satellite capabilities [35]. - The International Telecommunication Union has released a new standard for quantum key distribution node security, enhancing the framework for quantum communication networks [35]. - China Telecom launched an AI phone featuring self-developed AI capabilities, showcasing advancements in smart technology [35]. 5. Recommended Companies to Watch - Key companies in the light module sector include Zhongji Xuchuang, Newyi, Tianfu Communication, and others [14]. - In the server supply chain, notable mentions are Inspur Information, Unisplendour, and Fenghuo Communication [14]. - The satellite internet sector includes Shanghai Hanhua, Haige Communication, and Aerospace Electronics [14].

公司近一年市场表现 市场数据：2024 年 7 月 23 日 收盘价（元）： 27.10 总股本（亿股）： 47.83 流通股本（亿股）： 40.27 流通市值（亿元）： 1,091.32 基础数据：2024 年 3 月 31 日 每股净资产（元）： 14.90 每股资本公积（元）： 5.80 每股未分配利润（元）： 7.83 资料来源：最闻 高宇洋 执业登记编码：S0760523050002 邮箱：gaoyuyang@sxzq.com 张天 执业登记编码：S0760523120001 邮箱：zhangtian@sxzq.com 系统设备 中兴通讯（000063.SZ） 增持-A(首次) 乘 AI 东风加强算力业务布局，第二增长曲线打开新空间 2024 年 7 月 24 日 公司研究/深度分析 投资要点： 通信设备商龙头，盈利能力持续提升。中兴通讯作为全球四大通信设备 供应商之一，目前主要发展路线为在保持以传统第一曲线业务核心竞争力的 同时，加速拓展服务器及存储等以算力为代表的第二曲线业务。公司业务按 板块分为运营商、政企客户和消费者三大板块，运营商仍为主要基本盘，且 公司盈利能力明显提升；另一方面，公司加大 ...