Group 1 - GoDaddy forecasts annual revenue between $5.20 billion to $5.28 billion, which is below analysts' average estimate of $5.29 billion [1] - The company anticipates slow adoption of its artificial intelligence tools and weaker customer acquisition in its core hosting business [1] - Shares of GoDaddy fell nearly 8% in extended trading following the revenue forecast announcement [1] Group 2 - For the fourth quarter, GoDaddy reported revenue of $1.27 billion, which was largely in line with estimates [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hua Hong reported mixed results for 4Q25, with revenue slightly exceeding guidance but net income falling short due to increased R&D labor costs. Management provided a cautious outlook for 1Q26, expecting revenue to decline slightly while gross profit margin (GPM) improves due to demand in AI and localization [1][2][3]. Group 1: 4Q25 Results - Revenue grew 22% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter to a historical high, driven by a 3% increase in wafer shipments, particularly in MCU and PMIC segments [2]. - GPM narrowed by 0.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter to 13%, aligning with prior guidance [2]. - Net income was recorded at US$17 million, missing estimates by 53-54%, primarily due to elevated R&D labor costs, although partially offset by foreign exchange gains and government subsidies [2]. Group 2: 1Q26 Guidance - Management guided for 1Q26 revenue of US$650-660 million, representing a 1% decline quarter-over-quarter at the midpoint and 6% below consensus [3]. - GPM is expected to be between 13% and 15%, reflecting a 1 percentage point improvement quarter-over-quarter and above consensus expectations [3]. - Factors contributing to revenue include price increases in PMIC, MCU, and discrete devices for AI applications, alongside strong domestic demand in China, though offset by depreciation in new fabs and weak consumer electronics demand [3]. Group 3: 2026 Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from increased exposure to auto, industrial, communication, and computing sectors, projected to account for approximately 36% of revenue in 2025 [4]. - Initiatives focused on China-for-China and demand for AI-related products are anticipated to mitigate the impact of declining consumer electronics demand [4]. - Potential catalysts for stock performance include the completion of the HLMC (Fab5) injection in 2H26 and ongoing developments in domestic GPUs at HLIC (Fab6) [4]. Group 4: Valuation - Revenue and margin estimates have been slightly revised downward due to moderate near-term demand, leading to EPS cuts of 7% for 2026 and 5% for 2027 [5]. - Despite this, the market is expected to re-rate Hua Hong based on advanced node potential, prompting an increase in target price to HK$116.5, based on a 4.0x price-to-book ratio [5].

>> LIVE FROM LONDON, THIS IS BLOOMBERG "DAYBREAK: EUROPE." ASIAN STOCKS TOOK HISTORIC HIGHS AFTER WEAK US RETAIL SALES. TRADERS CLOSELY WATCHING FOR PAYROLLS DUE LATER. LAWMAKERS MAY PUSH TO APPROVING THE U.S. TRADE DEAL WITH THE PAUSE ON PRESIDENT TRUMP'S RING AND THREAT.WE WILL HAVE INTERVIEWS WITH THE GERMAN LENDER CEO LATER THIS HOUR. A VERY GOOD MORNING, WELCOME TO WEDNESDAY WHICH WEIRDLY IS JOBS DAY. WE ALREADY GOT THOSE UNEXPECTEDLY WEAK RETAIL SALES NUMBERS YESTERDAY.I WILL SHOW YOU THE IMPACT ON TR ...

Summary of the Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry in Greater China is experiencing further strength in TPU (Tensor Processing Units), GPU (Graphics Processing Units), and memory sectors, while facing more downside in smartphone and PC semiconductors [1][4] Key Investment Insights - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Top Picks**: TSMC, SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, and AllRing are highlighted as top investment ideas [9] - **Memory Sector**: Winbond is noted as a top pick, with other significant players including Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, and Macronix [9] - **China Semiconductor Equipment**: NAURA Tech and AMEC are mentioned as key players in the semiconductor equipment sector [9] - **Market Dynamics**: - **Tech Inflation**: Rising costs in wafers, OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test), and memory are expected to create margin headwinds for chip designers in 2026 [9] - **AI Cannibalization**: There is a noted shift in the semiconductor supply chain prioritizing AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in T-Glass and memory [9] - **Domestic GPU Supply**: The demand for domestic GPUs is questioned, particularly with the introduction of DeepSeek, which has demonstrated cheaper inferencing capabilities [9] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparison**: - TSMC's current price is TWD 1,830.0 with a target price of TWD 2,088.0, indicating a 14% upside [11] - UMC's current price is TWD 62.7 with a target price of TWD 52.5, indicating a 16% downside [11] - SMIC's current price is HKD 69.9 with a target price of HKD 80.0, indicating a 14% upside [11] - **Memory Sector Valuation**: - GigaDevice's current price is CNY 290.9 with a target price of CNY 414.0, indicating a 42% upside [11] - Winbond's current price is TWD 107.0 with a target price of TWD 155.0, indicating a 45% upside [11] Market Trends - **Broader Semiconductor Cycle**: Logic semiconductor foundry utilization is reported at 70-80% in the first half of 2026, indicating that the sector is still not fully recovered [17] - **AI vs. Non-AI Growth**: Excluding NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue, non-AI semiconductor growth was slow at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [18] Additional Insights - **Cloud Semiconductor Outlook**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) such as Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta have increased their capital expenditures by 64% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 [84] - **Future Projections**: The global semiconductor industry market size is projected to reach USD 1 trillion by 2030, with cloud AI semiconductor total addressable market (TAM) expected to grow to USD 235 billion by 2025 [93][99] Conclusion - The Greater China semiconductor industry is positioned for growth, particularly in AI and memory sectors, despite challenges in smartphone and PC segments. The focus on AI semiconductors and the robust demand from cloud service providers are key drivers for future performance.

Core Insights - Chinese technology stocks are gaining strategic momentum as the U.S.-China trade détente provides operational stability, with tariff rates stabilized at 31% and rare earth export controls suspended for another year, creating investment opportunities in 2026 [2][9] Semiconductor Sector - China's semiconductor consolidation accelerated with SMIC's $5.8 billion acquisition of SMIC Jingcheng and Hua Hong Semiconductor's acquisition of 97.5% of Shanghai Huali Microelectronics for $1.2 billion, consolidating domestic capacity at mature process nodes where Chinese foundries command over 25% of global capacity [4] Electric Vehicle Sector - BYD's January sales fell 30% year over year to 210,051 vehicles, the lowest since February 2024, while battery-electric passenger car sales dropped 33.6% to 83,249 units due to policy shifts; however, export momentum remained strong with a 51.4% increase to 100,482 vehicles [5] Artificial Intelligence Sector - Chinese AI advancements accelerated with multiple flagship releases, including Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking and Moonshot AI's Kimi K2.5, positioning Chinese companies competitively in the global AI landscape [6] Humanoid Robotics Sector - China holds 90% of global humanoid robot sales, with over 140 companies producing at scale; Morgan Stanley forecasts a 133% surge in sales to 28,000 units in 2026, with the domestic market reaching $1.4 billion [7] Other Strategic Sectors - COMAC targets 50 C919 units annually, the defense budget reached $249 billion with a 7.2% increase, and the medical device market approached $172.9 billion with over 33,000 enterprises [8] Company-Specific Insights - Agora is positioned for growth in conversational AI infrastructure, with strategic partnerships expanding its market beyond traditional communication [10] - Kingsoft Cloud is experiencing triple-digit growth in its intelligent computing cloud business, with gross billings reaching RMB782 million in Q3 2025 [11] - Tencent's growth is bolstered by AI integration and international cloud expansion, with significant revenue growth in marketing and gaming [12] - XPeng's strategic transformation includes the launch of the 2026 P7+ flagship and localized supply chain teams, enhancing operational efficiency and market reach [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Investor Presentation on AI Semi Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Semiconductor industry, particularly AI semiconductors, including TPU, GPU, and memory sectors [6][9] - **Market Outlook**: Attractive industry view for Greater China Technology Semiconductors [2] Core Insights - **Top Investment Ideas**: - **Overweight (OW)**: TSMC (Top Pick), SMIC, Aspeed, MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, KYEC, ASE, FOCI, ASMPT, AllRing [6] - **Memory Sector**: Winbond (Top Pick), Phison, Nanya Tech, APMemory, GigaDevice, Macronix [6] - **Non-AI Focus**: Realtek, USI in smartphone/glasses sector [6] - **Long-term Demand Drivers**: - **Tech Inflation**: Rising costs in wafer, OSAT, and memory are expected to create margin headwinds for chip designers into 2026 [6] - **AI Cannibalization**: AI is expected to replace some human jobs, leading to demand weakness and prioritization of AI semiconductors over non-AI semiconductors [6] - **Tech Diffusion**: AI semiconductor demand is reaccelerating due to generative AI, expanding into various verticals like robotics and AI glasses [6] - **China AI Demand**: DeepSeek is driving inferencing AI demand, raising questions about the sufficiency of domestic GPUs [6] Financial Metrics and Valuation - **Valuation Comparison**: - TSMC's current price is 1,805.0 TWD with a target of 2,088.0 TWD, indicating a 16% upside [7] - UMC's current price is 68.4 TWD with a target of 52.5 TWD, indicating a 23% downside [7] - SMIC's current price is 76.7 HKD with a target of 80.0 HKD, indicating a 4% upside [7] - **P/E Ratios**: - TSMC's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 27.2 in 2025 to 16.1 in 2027 [7] - UMC's P/E ratio is projected to remain stable around 20.8 to 18.0 from 2025 to 2027 [7] Market Dynamics - **Semi Cycle**: AI semiconductors are expected to outperform broader semiconductor growth, with non-AI semiconductor growth projected at only 10% year-over-year in 2024 [12] - **Inventory Trends**: A decrease in inventory days historically correlates with an increase in the semiconductor stock index [15] - **Memory Prices**: Memory stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive view on the industry [16] Additional Insights - **Capex Trends**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a 65% year-over-year increase noted in 3Q25 [52] - **AI Semiconductor Market Size**: The global semiconductor market size is projected to reach US$1 trillion by 2030, with cloud AI semiconductor total addressable market (TAM) expected to grow to US$235 billion by 2025 [85][91] - **NVIDIA's Influence**: NVIDIA's AI GPU revenue is a significant driver of growth in the semiconductor sector, with implications for other players in the market [12][19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the investor presentation, highlighting the semiconductor industry's current landscape, investment opportunities, and financial metrics.

Core Viewpoint - ASML Holding N.V. is viewed positively by BofA Securities, which maintains a Buy rating and a price target of $1,672, citing limited competitive risk from China and a positive outlook on edge AI [1][2]. Group 1: Competitive Landscape - BofA believes that China's advancements in EUV technology pose a limited competitive threat to ASML, as China's capabilities are several years behind [2][3]. - Structural disadvantages such as lack of global integration and deep customer collaboration hinder China's ability to compete at the cutting edge, reinforcing ASML's technological leadership [2]. Group 2: Market Position - Leading semiconductor manufacturers like TSMC and Intel are unlikely to adopt Chinese EUV tools, while domestic companies such as SMIC and CXMT will continue to purchase ASML's immersion and local EUV systems [3]. - Although China may gain some market traction through discounted pricing in emerging markets, it does not significantly threaten ASML's market position [3]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - While ASML is recognized as a strong investment opportunity, BofA suggests that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential with less downside risk [3].

Core Viewpoint - Jensen Huang has established a $4.6 trillion empire through Nvidia, focusing on AI infrastructure, but there are three significant threats to the company's future that are not addressed in earnings calls [1] Group 1: Threats to Nvidia - **Threat 1: Major Customers Developing In-House Chips** Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet account for 40-50% of Nvidia's revenue and are all creating custom AI chips, which could replace Nvidia's offerings. Inference workloads, which represent 80% of long-term AI compute, are at risk if these companies build their own chips [2][3] - **Threat 2: AMD as a Competitive Alternative** AMD's MI300X chips have gained traction, offering competitive performance at 20-30% lower costs compared to Nvidia. Microsoft Azure and Oracle Cloud are adopting AMD technology, and OpenAI is reportedly testing AMD chips to reduce dependency on Nvidia [4][5][6] - **Threat 3: Geopolitical Risks from China** China's approval of H200 chips may seem positive, but it poses a risk as the country has a history of extracting technology and then developing domestic alternatives. If Nvidia becomes too reliant on the Chinese market, future bans could severely impact revenue [7][8] Group 2: Nvidia's Strategic Omissions - **Lack of Discussion on Customer Developments** Jensen Huang focuses on AI demand and partnerships in earnings calls but avoids discussing customer chip development, AMD's market share, and the implications of inference versus training margins [9][10] - **Market Realities Ignored** The optimistic view assumes AI growth benefits all players, while the pessimistic view recognizes that customers are building their own solutions, AMD is providing cheaper options, and geopolitical tensions could threaten Nvidia's market position [10]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards AI-driven demand, with a preference for AI semiconductors over non-AI counterparts. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with both logic and memory sectors being attractive for investment [6][10][87]. Key Companies Mentioned - **TSMC**: Identified as a top pick in the AI semiconductor space, with expected revenue CAGR of 60% from AI semis between 2024 and 2029 [6][33]. - **SMIC**: Mentioned as a significant player in the semiconductor industry [6]. - **MediaTek, Alchip, GUC, Winbond, Phison, Nanya Tech**: Other notable companies highlighted for their roles in the semiconductor landscape [6]. Core Insights - **Demand Drivers**: - Tech inflation is anticipated to impact demand due to rising costs in wafers, OSAT, and memory, creating margin pressures for chip designers [6]. - AI cannibalization is a concern, as AI technologies may replace certain human jobs, affecting overall demand [6]. - The proliferation of generative AI is expected to drive demand across various verticals, including robotics and AI glasses [6]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The semiconductor supply chain is prioritizing AI semiconductors, leading to shortages in non-AI semiconductors [6]. - The memory sector's stock prices are seen as leading indicators for logic semiconductors, with an attractive industry view on Greater China technology semiconductors [16]. Financial Metrics and Valuation - **TSMC**: - Current share price is 1,760 TWD with a target price of 2,088 TWD, indicating a 19% upside potential [8]. - Expected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 26.6, 18.9, and 15.7 respectively, with EPS growth rates of 46%, 40%, and 21% [8]. - **SMIC**: - Current share price is 77.0 HKD with a target price of 80.0 HKD, indicating a 4% upside potential [8]. - Expected P/E ratios are not meaningful (NM) due to negative growth projections [8]. Potential Risks - **Supply Chain Issues**: The semiconductor supply chain is facing challenges, including inventory management and the prioritization of AI semiconductors, which could lead to shortages in non-AI products [6][14]. - **Economic Factors**: Rising costs and inflation in the tech sector may impact overall demand and profitability for semiconductor companies [6]. Additional Insights - **Capex Trends**: Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are expected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a projected 65% year-over-year increase in Q3 2025 [52]. - **AI Semiconductor Market Size**: The global semiconductor market size is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2030, driven largely by cloud AI [85]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the semiconductor industry, particularly in relation to AI technologies.

Summary of TSMC's 2027 Capex Update and Foundry Dynamics Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Industry**: Semiconductor Foundry - **Date of Report**: January 13, 2026 Key Points and Arguments TSMC's Capital Expenditure (Capex) - TSMC's estimated capex for 2027 has been raised to **US$54 billion**, up from **US$49 billion** in 2026, driven by strong demand for **2nm and AI semiconductors** [1][8][19] - The company is expected to see **EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) orders increase by approximately 40-50%** from 2026 levels [1][8] Capacity and Production Plans - TSMC plans to convert part of its **Fab 12 and Fab 14** capacity for **interposer production** and may outsource **CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) interposer production** to **Vanguard** in 2027 [1][8][9] - The company added **~20kwpm** of its **55nm/65nm capacity** for interposer production in 2025, indicating strong demand for AI semiconductors [9] Market Dynamics and Competitors - **Data center-related PMIC (Power Management Integrated Circuit)** faces shortages, with **SMIC and Vanguard** expected to benefit and potentially increase their **8-inch wafer prices** [1][8] - **Samsung Foundry** is gradually reducing its **8-inch engineering resources** to support leading-edge demand, which may lead to a shift of some display driver IC orders to **UMC** in the second half of 2027 [1][8] Financial Projections and Stock Ratings - TSMC's revenue growth is projected at **30% year-over-year in 2026**, exceeding the Street consensus of **24%** [1][23] - Price targets for TSMC have been raised to **NT$1,988** from **NT$1,888** [1][48] - **UMC** has been downgraded to **Underweight** due to potential investor disappointment regarding wafer price hikes and interposer production [1][8] Foundry 2.0 Concept - TSMC introduced the **Foundry 2.0** concept, expanding its business definition to include both front-end and back-end operations, with advanced packaging revenue approaching **10% of total revenue by 2025** [32][33] Long-term Outlook - TSMC is expected to outgrow the foundry industry due to its leadership position and heavy capex investments compared to peers [1][24] - The company aims to expand its **2nm capacity to 140kwpm by 2027**, with further growth anticipated beyond that [1][24] Additional Important Insights - TSMC's **EUV layer count** for future nodes is not significantly increasing, but the installed base of EUV scanners is expected to accelerate, particularly in 2027 [11] - The report highlights the importance of TSMC's capacity expansion as a key driver for the entire foundry industry's growth and revenue trajectory [19][23] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding TSMC's strategic direction, financial outlook, and the broader semiconductor foundry landscape.