资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,330.73 | -1.45 | | 深证成指 | 10,748.97 | -2.62 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 3,968.83 | -1.75 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,764.93 | - ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3391 points, closing at 3330.73 points, down 1.45% [2][9][10] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.32 times and 38.41 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][19] - The total trading volume on the two exchanges was 186.36 billion yuan, which is above the median of the past three years [2][19] Group 2 - Industries such as cultural media, communication services, education, and banking showed strong performance, while software development, semiconductors, energy metals, and aerospace industries lagged [2][19] - Recent high-frequency data indicates growth in logistics, exports, and service trade, with October real estate sales showing signs of stabilization compared to September [2][19] - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors like communication services, cultural media, consumer electronics, and banking for short-term focus [2][19]

Group 1 - The central government has introduced a robust debt resolution policy, increasing the debt limit for replacing hidden debts by 6 trillion yuan, with a total scale reaching 10 trillion yuan over five years starting in 2024 [13][14][15] - As of the end of October, M2 balance grew by 7.5% year-on-year, while M1 decreased by 6.1%, showing a narrowing decline and marking the first increase in growth rate for the year [16][17] - The cumulative social financing data for October showed weakness, with only government bond financing and trust loans increasing year-on-year, while other financing methods declined [19][20] Group 2 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in October, a slight decrease from the previous month, with food prices showing varied trends [22] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months, indicating some stabilization in production material prices [24][28] - Industrial added value in October maintained stability, growing by 5.3% year-on-year, with various sectors showing different growth rates [38] Group 3 - U.S. inflation data for October met expectations, with PPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.4% year-on-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [43][45] - The market is currently in a phase of adjustment due to concerns over policy impacts and profit-taking from previously hot sectors, with a recommendation to focus on sectors like brokerage, non-bank finance, semiconductors, and AI in the short term [45]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "in line with the market" for the fourth quarter of 2024, indicating an expected performance within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [52][56]. Core Insights - In Q3 2024, most sub-sectors of the food and beverage industry experienced a significant decline in revenue growth, with some turning negative, which is unusual for a traditional peak consumption season [5][10]. - The liquor sector saw a drastic slowdown in sales growth, dropping from 15.19% in the previous year to 0.73% [6][16]. - Snack companies performed relatively well, with some achieving positive growth, while the health supplement sector faced a substantial revenue decline of 16.36% [6][26]. - The condiment sector showed recovery in sales growth after years of channel adjustments, with major companies returning to normal operational trajectories [6][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Revenue Growth - In Q3 2024, the revenue growth for various food and beverage sub-sectors showed a sharp decline, with beer at -3.26%, baked goods at -4.26%, and prepared foods at -3.35% [10][30]. - The liquor sector's revenue growth was minimal at 0.73%, while snacks recorded a significant increase of 58.02% and condiments at 9.55% [10][11]. 2. Profitability - The net profit for the liquor, snack, and condiment sectors increased by 2.05%, 60.18%, and 15.25% respectively, while other sectors like beer and health supplements saw declines [33][43]. - The prepared foods sector experienced a net profit drop of 29.99%, significantly higher than the revenue decline [35][30]. 3. Sector Performance - Snack companies such as Salted Fish and Three Squirrels reported revenue growth of 26.2% and 24.02% respectively, benefiting from strong channel distribution capabilities [12][46]. - The liquor market is now in a phase of stock competition, with companies like Moutai and Fenjiu continuing to show stable growth due to their strong market presence [16][17]. - The condiment sector's major players, including Haitian Flavoring and Zhongju High-tech, reported revenue growth of 9.83% and 2.23% respectively, indicating a return to stable growth patterns [21][22]. 4. Health Supplements - The health supplement sector's overall revenue declined by 16.36%, primarily due to the poor performance of Tongrentang, despite some companies like Kangbiter and Jiao Da Ang Li showing positive growth [26][39]. - The profitability of health supplement companies varied, with some like Jiao Da Ang Li and Baihe Co. showing net profit increases of 44.52% and 7.87% respectively [39][42]. 5. Prepared Foods - The prepared foods sector's revenue decreased by 3.35%, with major companies like Wufangzhai and Baobi Foods experiencing significant declines [30][35]. - Only a few companies, such as Gaisifu and Anjifoods, managed to achieve positive revenue growth of 7.95% and 4.63% respectively [30][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the media industry, relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a 5.30% increase in October, outperforming major indices such as the ChiNext Index, Shanghai Composite Index, and CSI 300 by 5.79 percentage points, 7.00 percentage points, and 8.46 percentage points respectively [3][23]. - The overall performance of the media sector is under pressure due to external economic conditions, market competition, and changes in tax policies, with a projected decline in profits exceeding 30% for the first three quarters of 2024 [4][16]. - The gaming sector shows stability with record sales in Q3 2024, driven by high-quality game releases like "Black Myth: Wukong," which has significantly boosted overseas revenue [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery, particularly gaming and advertising, while maintaining long-term interest in high-dividend, low-risk publishing companies [5][19]. 2. October Market Review - The media sector's trading volume reached 1,151.36 billion yuan, a 142.92% increase month-on-month, with 91 out of 142 stocks rising [3][23]. - Sub-sectors such as internet advertising and other advertising marketing saw increases exceeding 10%, while internet video, publishing, and animation experienced slight declines [3][25]. 3. Valuation Levels - As of October 31, the media sector's PE ratio (ttm, excluding negative values) stood at 22.91 times, compared to an average of 24.49 times since 2019, indicating a historical percentile of 44.6% [4][30]. 4. Industry News - The domestic film market generated a box office of 36.25 billion yuan in October 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.13%, with a total of 383.95 billion yuan for the first ten months, down 22.13% year-on-year [37][43]. - The gaming sector has seen a significant increase in the issuance of domestic game licenses, with 1,072 titles approved in 10 batches by the end of October, marking a 36.56% increase year-on-year [17][36]. 5. Monthly Industry Data - The top five TV dramas and web series in October were "Jinxiu Anning," "Dark Night and Dawn," "People's Police," "Mortal Song," and "Snow Maze," indicating strong viewer engagement [53][54]. - The average ticket price in the film market was 40.28 yuan, with a total of 0.9 billion viewers in October, reflecting a 1.12% year-on-year increase [37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][15][6] Core Views - The company experienced significant year-on-year growth in October sales, with a 38.1% increase in bus production and a 43.2% increase in sales, totaling 3,558 and 3,221 units respectively [3] - The demand for new energy buses is accelerating, supported by government policies and subsidies, which are expected to boost sales further [3][6] - The company is positioned as a leader in the new energy bus sector, achieving a market share of 23.1% with a year-on-year sales increase of 63.0% for buses over 6 meters in length [3][6] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 344.24 billion, 398.64 billion, and 465.21 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.47, 1.87, and 2.25 yuan [3][7] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3,246 million yuan in 2024, 4,138 million yuan in 2025, and 4,985 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 78.65%, 27.47%, and 20.46% respectively [7][11] - The company’s gross margin is projected to be around 22.85% in 2024, with a net margin of 9.43% [11] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a robust export performance, with a 69.62% year-on-year increase in bus exports in October, and a total of 6,576 units exported [3] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, particularly in Latin America, where it has delivered 274 buses to Mexico [3][6] - The overall bus industry is expected to benefit from the recovery of the tourism sector and the implementation of electric vehicle policies, leading to sustained demand growth [3][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% against the CSI 300 index within the next six months [1][5]. Core Views - The company reported a Q3 gross margin improvement, with strong performance in new energy vehicle orders. Despite a decline in self-owned brand sales and losses from joint ventures, the company achieved a net profit of 748 million yuan in Q3 2024, reflecting a significant year-on-year decrease of 66.44% [1]. - The company is accelerating its transformation by focusing on both self-developed and cooperative efforts, with new energy vehicle orders showing promising growth. The launch of several new models is expected to enhance profitability in the upcoming quarters [1]. - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 110.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.54%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.58 billion yuan, down 63.78% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 34.24 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 19.85% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.76%. The gross margin for Q3 was reported at 15.7%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement [1]. - The company’s self-owned passenger vehicle sales in Q3 2024 were 339,000 units, down 17.4% year-on-year, while new energy vehicle sales were 149,000 units, up 13.7% year-on-year [1]. - The report projects the company’s revenue for 2024 to be 158.11 billion yuan, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.62 yuan, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.40 based on the closing price of 14.52 yuan per share on November 14, 2024 [2][3].

Market Performance - Domestic market indices showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,379.84, down 1.73%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 11,037.78, down 2.83% [2] - International markets also experienced declines with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 30,772.79, down 0.67%, and the NASDAQ Composite closing at 11,247.58, down 0.15% [3] Industry and Company Analysis - The software industry in China saw a 10.8% growth in revenue for the first nine months of 2024, reaching 9.83 trillion yuan, with a profit increase of 11.2% to 1.16 trillion yuan [11] - The semiconductor industry continued its recovery trend in Q3 2024, with revenue growing by 20.57% year-over-year to 1.24 trillion yuan, and net profit increasing by 49.51% to 85.53 billion yuan [20] - The pet food export sector in China grew by 25.9% in volume and 21.08% in value for the first nine months of 2024, driven by increased pet ownership and consumption [15] - The light manufacturing industry reported a 2.14% increase in revenue to 4.55 trillion yuan for the first nine months of 2024, with a 5.12% decline in net profit to 228.02 billion yuan [26] Key Data Updates - Recent data on restricted share releases shows significant upcoming releases, such as Shengmei Shanghai with 35.77 million shares (82.01% of total shares) set to be released on November 18, 2024 [27] - The top active stocks in the Shanghai-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect include Sailun Group with a trading volume of 11.22 billion yuan and Inspur Information with 9.34 billion yuan [29] Recent Reports - Market analysis highlighted the financial sector leading gains in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing wide fluctuations [6] - The communication and media sectors led gains in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing slight upward movement [7] - The pharmaceutical and consumer sectors showed strength in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing wide fluctuations [8] - Growth sectors led gains in the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing slight upward movement [10]

资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2023.11 2024.03 2024.07 2024.11 上证指数 深证成指 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|------------|------------| | 国内市场表现 \n指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅 (%) | | 上证指数 | 3,439.28 | 0.51 | | 深证成指 | 11,359.29 | 0.40 | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 300 | 4,110.89 | 0.62 | | 上证 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 100 | 3,901.93 | 0.71 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced slight fluctuations with a small upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,439.28 points, up 0.51% [7][8] - Key sectors performing well included communication services, cultural media, shipbuilding, and banking, while the pharmaceutical, medical services, gas, and food and beverage sectors showed weaker performance [3][7] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are 14.48 times and 39.55 times respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][11] Group 2 - The total trading volume for the two markets on that day was 20,422 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [3][11] - Recent high-frequency data indicates growth in logistics, exports, and service trade, with signs of stabilization in real estate sales compared to the previous month [3][11] - Investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as communication services, cultural media, military industry, and gaming for short-term focus [3][11]