市场数据(2024-10-14) 收盘价(元) 43.29 一年内最高/最低(元) 49.35/31.64 沪深 300 指数 3,961.34 市净率(倍) 3.75 流通市值(亿元) 1,649.66 基础数据(2024-06-30) 每股净资产(元) 11.54 每股经营现金流(元) 2.83 毛利率(%) 7.74 净资产收益率_摊薄(%) 1.29 资产负债率(%) 61.81 总股本/流通股(万股) 546,535.32/381,071.7 3 畜牧业 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 业绩表现亮眼，成本进一步下降 ——牧原股份(002714)2024 年三季报预告点评 发布日期：2024 年 10 月 15 日 投资要点： 证券研究报告-季报点评 增持(维持) 公司前三季度业绩扭亏为盈，Q3 表现亮眼。根据公司公告，预计 2024 年前 3 季度实现归母净利润 100-110 亿元，同比扭亏为盈 （2023 年同期亏损 18.42 亿元）；扣非后净利润为 115-125 亿元， 同比扭亏为盈（2023 年同期亏损 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the computer industry, indicating a synchronized performance with the broader market [2][12]. Core Insights - The software industry's revenue growth is expected to decline in 2024, with a reported revenue of 8.55 trillion yuan for the first eight months, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase, down from 13.4% in 2023 [5][7]. - Profit growth in the software sector has also weakened, with total profits of 1.0226 trillion yuan for the same period, marking a 9.8% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth by 1.4 percentage points [7][9]. - High-performing sub-sectors include IC design, basic software, and cloud and big data services, with IC design growing by 13.8% year-on-year [10][11]. - Huawei has emerged as a leader in the domestic tablet market, surpassing Apple in Q1 2024 with a market share of 26% [17][18]. - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic software and hardware localization, particularly with the advancement of Huawei's Harmony OS, which has reached a significant milestone with over 9 billion devices and 2.54 million developers [26][27]. Summary by Sections Industry Data - The software industry's revenue growth is declining, with a reported 11.2% increase in revenue for the first eight months of 2024 compared to 13.4% in 2023 [5][7]. - Profit growth has also decreased, with a total profit of 1.0226 trillion yuan, reflecting a 9.8% increase, which is lower than the revenue growth [7][9]. - High-growth sectors include IC design, basic software, and cloud services, with IC design leading at 13.8% growth [10][11]. News and Announcements - Huawei's Harmony OS is gaining traction, with significant market share and developer engagement, indicating a strong push towards domestic software solutions [26][27]. - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic products in light of international uncertainties, particularly in the context of the recent geopolitical events [24][26]. Investment Strategy - The computer industry saw a significant rise in September, with the CITIC computer index increasing by 35.31%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 17.92 percentage points [48][49]. - The report suggests that the overall market conditions and the performance of the computer sector are likely to remain favorable, driven by macroeconomic policies and increased foreign investment [12][48].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [15]. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3285 points, leading to a general downward trend in the afternoon session. Key sectors such as gaming, cultural media, aerospace and military, and decoration performed well, while sectors like securities, mining, automotive, and non-ferrous metals lagged [3][4][7]. - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index are currently at 14.02 times and 34.68 times, respectively, which are at the median levels over the past three years, suggesting a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [4][14]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 16,518 billion, which is above the median level for the past three years, indicating robust market activity [4][14]. - Recent policy announcements, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to enhance market maturity and boost long-term confidence. The Central Political Bureau's meeting has also signaled stronger macroeconomic control expectations for the fourth quarter [4][14]. - The report anticipates that the stock index will maintain a general upward trend, while investors are advised to focus on short-term investment opportunities in gaming, cultural media, decoration materials, and aerospace and military sectors [4][14]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On October 15, the A-share market faced resistance and fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3201.29 points, down 2.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10,066.52 points, also down 2.53%. The ChiNext 50 Index fell by 2.93%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.22% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks declined, with gaming, decoration, and aerospace sectors showing slight increases, while mining, securities, and energy sectors experienced significant declines [7][10]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the stock index is expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, with a focus on short-term investment opportunities in specific sectors [4][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes, funding conditions, and external factors that may impact market performance [4][14].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3201.29 points, down 2.53%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10066.52 points, also down 2.53% [5][6] - Key sectors that performed well included gaming, cultural media, aerospace and military, and decoration, while sectors such as securities, mining, automotive, and non-ferrous metals showed weaker performance [2][5] - The average price-to-earnings ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices were 14.02 times and 34.68 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][10] Group 2 - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 16518 billion, which is above the median level for the past three years [2][10] - Recent policy announcements, including the "New National Nine Articles," are expected to enhance market maturity and boost long-term confidence [2][10] - The report suggests investors focus on short-term opportunities in gaming, cultural media, decoration materials, and aerospace and military sectors [2][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanxi Securities (002500) [2][3] Core Views - Shanxi Securities achieved revenue of 1.4 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 319 million yuan, down 17.96% year-on-year [5] - The company's brokerage, asset management, and investment income (including fair value changes) accounted for a higher proportion of revenue, while investment banking, interest, and other income saw a decline [6] - Brokerage business net revenue increased by 13.96% year-on-year, driven by growth in commission, seat, and distribution net income [7] - Asset management business net revenue grew by 31.97% year-on-year, with a focus on fixed income products [11] - Investment banking business net revenue decreased by 25.16% year-on-year, mainly due to a significant drop in equity financing, while debt financing remained relatively stable [9] - The company's investment income (including fair value changes) decreased by 25.90% year-on-year, as it reduced directional exposure and adopted a low-volatility, low-drawdown strategy [12] - The company's margin financing balance decreased by 11.79% compared to the end of 2023, while stock pledge scale increased by 5.38% [13] Business Performance Summary Brokerage Business - Brokerage business net revenue increased by 13.96% year-on-year to 253 million yuan [7] - The number of investment advisory clients increased by 11.02%, and product AUM grew by 35.4% year-on-year [7] - Commission, seat, and distribution net income increased by 8.50%, 19.44%, and 51.91% year-on-year, respectively [8] Investment Banking Business - Investment banking business net revenue decreased by 25.16% year-on-year to 116 million yuan [9] - Equity financing underwriting amount dropped by 72.33% year-on-year to 280 million yuan [9] - Debt financing underwriting amount decreased by 6.02% year-on-year to 31.032 billion yuan, with the company maintaining a leading position in Shanxi province [9] Asset Management Business - Asset management business net revenue increased by 31.97% year-on-year to 161 million yuan [11] - The company's asset management subsidiary, Shanxi Securities Asset Management, managed a total of 65.93 billion yuan, with private asset management and public fund sizes of 34 billion yuan and 31.9 billion yuan, respectively [11] Investment Business - Investment income (including fair value changes) decreased by 25.90% year-on-year to 738 million yuan [12] - The company reduced directional exposure and adopted a low-volatility, low-drawdown strategy [12] - The company's private equity subsidiary, Shanxi Securities Investment, achieved revenue of 3 million yuan, up 3.64% year-on-year [12] Margin Financing and Stock Pledge - The company's margin financing balance decreased by 11.79% compared to the end of 2023 to 5.976 billion yuan [13] - Stock pledge scale increased by 5.38% compared to the end of 2023 to 1.213 billion yuan [13] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve EPS of 0.16 yuan and 0.18 yuan in 2024 and 2025, respectively, with BVPS of 5.04 yuan and 5.18 yuan [15] - The P/B ratio is expected to be 1.21x and 1.18x in 2024 and 2025, respectively [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The pre-prepared food industry is experiencing a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.43% in total revenue for listed companies in Henan province [4][22]. - Despite the revenue slowdown, companies like Qianwei Yangchu maintain high R&D investments, with Qianwei Yangchu's R&D expenses increasing by 31.41% year-on-year [5][10]. - The sales expense ratio for pre-prepared food companies has increased, reflecting the challenges in the B-end market due to declining restaurant consumption [13][18]. - The gross profit margin for pre-prepared food companies has improved due to a decrease in operating costs, with Qianwei Yangchu's gross margin reaching 25.21% [18][24]. - The industry is shifting towards export markets as domestic consumption weakens, with significant growth in meat and seafood exports [24]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2024, the revenue growth of pre-prepared food companies showed a drastic decline, with Qianwei Yangchu achieving a 4.87% increase while Sanquan Foods experienced a -4.91% decrease [4][7]. - The overall revenue growth for pre-prepared food companies dropped from 13.09% in the previous year to -1.43% [4][7]. R&D Investment - Qianwei Yangchu and Sanquan Foods have maintained high R&D investments, with increases of 31.41% and 21.80% respectively [5][10]. - Qianwei Yangchu's R&D expenses accounted for 1.17% of its revenue, ranking second among its peers [10]. Sales Expenses - The sales expense ratio for Qianwei Yangchu rose to 5.52%, indicating increased costs associated with market expansion efforts [13][18]. - The overall sales expense ratio for pre-prepared food companies has increased due to stagnant sales growth [13]. Gross Profit Margin - The gross profit margin for pre-prepared food companies improved to 23.84%, with Qianwei Yangchu's margin at 25.21% [18][24]. - The improvement in gross margins is attributed to a decrease in operating costs rather than product pricing or efficiency gains [18]. Market Dynamics - The pre-prepared food industry is facing challenges due to weak domestic consumption, prompting companies to explore export opportunities [24]. - Export growth has been significant, with meat exports increasing by 45.1% and seafood exports by 10.4% in the first eight months of 2024 [24].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In line with the market," indicating that the industry index is expected to fluctuate between -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [26]. Core Insights - The pre-prepared food industry is experiencing a significant decline in revenue growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.43% in 2024, reflecting the severe downturn in the restaurant sector [4][22]. - Despite the revenue slowdown, companies in the pre-prepared food sector, such as Qianwei Yangchu and Sanquan Foods, are maintaining high levels of investment in research and development, with R&D expenses increasing by 31.41% and 21.80% respectively in the first half of 2024 [5][10]. - The gross profit margin for pre-prepared food companies has improved due to a decrease in operating costs, with Qianwei Yangchu's gross margin rising to 25.21% [18]. Summary by Sections Revenue Growth - In the first half of 2024, Qianwei Yangchu's revenue grew by 4.87%, while Sanquan Foods saw a decline of 4.91%. The overall revenue growth for pre-prepared food companies dropped from 13.09% in the previous year to -1.43% [4][7]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to the weak performance of the restaurant sector, which has a significant impact on B-end businesses [22]. Research and Development - Qianwei Yangchu and Sanquan Foods have increased their R&D spending significantly, ranking third and fourth among pre-prepared food companies in terms of growth [5][10]. - The R&D expense ratio for Qianwei Yangchu reached 1.17%, indicating a strong focus on innovation in a rapidly changing market [10]. Sales and Marketing Expenses - Sales expenses for Qianwei Yangchu increased significantly, with a sales expense ratio of 5.52% in the first half of 2024, reflecting the challenges in the B-end market [13]. - The increase in sales expenses is primarily due to the slowdown in sales growth while maintaining high sales investments [13]. Cost and Profitability - The gross profit margin for the pre-prepared food sector improved to 23.84%, driven by a decrease in operating costs [18]. - Qianwei Yangchu's gross margin increased by 1.97 percentage points, while Sanquan Foods experienced a decline due to rising pork prices [18]. Market Dynamics - The domestic restaurant sector is facing a sharp decline in revenue growth, while the export market for meat and seafood remains robust, with significant year-on-year growth [24]. - The shift towards export markets is becoming a strategic focus for many pre-prepared food companies as they seek new growth avenues [24].

Industry Overview - The new materials index fell by 4.79%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which declined by 3.25%. The adjustment in the new materials index post-National Day indicates weaker performance compared to the broader market. Long-term growth is expected in the new materials sector due to increasing demand from China's manufacturing industry, with a focus on semiconductor materials like electronic special gases and photoresists, which have high technical difficulty and low domestic substitution rates [1][14] - The non-ferrous metals index decreased by 6.08%, ranking 22nd among 30 industries. Key sub-sectors such as aluminum, nickel-cobalt-tin-antimony, and lithium saw significant declines. Despite a weak fundamental outlook, expectations for economic recovery are rising, suggesting investment opportunities in copper, aluminum, and gold sectors [1][15] - The light industry manufacturing index dropped by 7.00%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.75 percentage points. The paper sector is experiencing price adjustments due to rising raw material costs, while the home furnishing sector may benefit from supportive real estate policies and consumption incentives [1][16] Specific Sectors Lithium Battery - The lithium battery index fell by 6.70%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Despite this, there are short-term investment opportunities in the sector based on industry dynamics and price trends [2][12] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index decreased by 7.43%, with all sub-sectors declining. The pig farming sector is expected to see a cyclical rebound, while the pet food sector is experiencing rapid growth [4][18] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector declined by 7.39%, with a recommendation to focus on stable, high-dividend companies and high-growth segments like health products and snacks for investment opportunities in the second half of 2024 [5][19] Securities - The securities index showed a mixed performance with a notable rebound post-National Day, suggesting a good opportunity for right-side positioning in the sector. Attention is recommended for leading brokerages and those with valuations significantly below the sector average [6][21] Automotive - The automotive sector fell by 4.31%, with a focus on the impact of new intelligent models being launched. Investment opportunities are seen in autonomous brands and intelligent components as the sector continues to evolve [7][22] Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic sector decreased by 6.31%, with significant trading volume. Long-term attention is advised for key players in photovoltaic glass, integrated components, and polysilicon materials as the market stabilizes [8][9][22] Power and Utilities - The power and utilities sector fell by 4.33%, with a focus on water and nuclear power companies showing strong profitability. Long-term investment opportunities are suggested for stable, high-dividend companies in these areas [9][10] Media - The media sector dropped by 8.40%, with all sub-sectors declining. Future growth is anticipated in areas benefiting from government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption [10][11] Computer - The computer sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, driven by developments in AI and domestic software systems. Continued attention is warranted for companies involved in these technological advancements [11][12] Communication - The communication sector increased by 8.93%, with significant trading volume and a focus on high-dividend companies. Investment opportunities are seen in telecom operators and optical communication sectors [12][13]

Key Points - The report highlights a 5.3% year-on-year increase in China's goods trade import and export volume for the first three quarters of 2024, totaling 32.33 trillion yuan, with exports at 18.62 trillion yuan (up 6.2%) and imports at 13.71 trillion yuan (up 4.1%) [5][7] - The report indicates that the social financing scale for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 25.66 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.68 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, with M2 money supply growing by 6.8% year-on-year [5][7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to promote consumption and expand domestic demand in the fourth quarter, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and the development of new fields such as humanoid robots and 6G technology [5][7] Market Analysis - The financial technology sector is leading the A-share market, which is experiencing a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index showing average P/E ratios of 13.74 and 33.47, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [6][11] - The report notes that the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound due to enhanced macro policy expectations, with significant support from the central government and financial regulators [8][9] - The report suggests that investors should focus on sectors such as finance, consumer electronics, semiconductors, and aerospace military industries for short-term investment opportunities [11][12] Industry Insights - The lithium battery sector saw a 31.99% increase in its index in September 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with China's new energy vehicle sales reaching 1.287 million units, a year-on-year increase of 42.37% [14][15] - The report indicates that the real estate market in Henan province is expected to benefit from new policies aimed at stabilizing the market, including measures to support housing consumption and financial assistance [15][17] - The telecommunications industry is experiencing robust growth, with new business revenues increasing by 10.5% year-on-year, and the demand for 5G services continuing to rise [19][21] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" investment rating for the lithium battery sector, considering the industry's growth potential and current market conditions [14][19] - It suggests that the home improvement and renovation sectors will benefit from new policies promoting consumption, with significant potential for growth in the home appliance market [15][16] - The report recommends focusing on key players in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home Group and Sophia, as the market is expected to recover due to supportive policies [19]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened high and experienced slight fluctuations, with the index finding support around 3203 points during the day [2][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3284.32 points, up 2.07%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10327.40 points, up 2.65% [5][6] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 13.74 times and 33.47 times, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [2][9] Group 2 - Key sectors showing strong performance include banking, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and aerospace defense, while sectors like securities, mining, and tourism hotels lagged [2][5] - The total trading volume for both markets reached 16,494 billion, which is above the median of the past three years [2][9] - The report highlights the impact of new policies aimed at market maturity and long-term confidence, alongside macroeconomic stabilization measures expected to boost the economy [2][9]