——市场分析 《市场分析：周期行业领涨 A 股窄幅波动》 2024-06-06 联系人： 马嵚琦 ◼ A 股市场综述 周五 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指高开后震荡上行，沪指 盘中在 3065 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回落，盘中房地产、交运设备、 电力以及银行等行业表现较好；通信设备、消费电子、证券以及酿酒等行 业表现较弱，沪指全天基本呈现震荡整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与创 业板指数的平均市盈率分别为 13.04 倍、29.07 倍，处于近三年中位数以 下水平，市场估值依然处于较低区域，适合中长期布局。两市周五成交金 额 7192 亿元，处于近三年日均成交量中位数区域。新国九条发布，推动市 场走向成熟，提振市场长期信心。官方 PMI 数据出现季节性回落，重回荣 枯线下方。工业企业盈利在工业品价格回升的推动下，重回正增长。美联 储态度呈现鹰派，海外市场出现调整，国际局势影响市场风险偏好，未来 股指总体预计将保持震荡格局，同时仍需密切关注政策面、资金面以及外 部因素的变化情况。我们建议投资者短线关注房地产、黄金以及工程机械 等行业的投资机会。 第1页 / 共7页 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公 ...

Industry Overview - The lithium battery index decreased by 6.25%, underperforming the CSI 300 index [2] - The chemical industry index fell by 3.39%, ranking 20th among 30 sectors [2] - The new materials index dropped by 4.54%, with only the semiconductor materials sub-sector showing an increase [2] - The non-ferrous metals index declined by 2.28%, with gold showing a slight increase of 1.58% [2] - The light industry manufacturing index decreased by 5.53%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300 index [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery index fell by 2.00%, with the planting sector performing better [4] - The food and beverage sector dropped by 2.19%, facing pressure from increased competition and declining profit margins [5] - The pharmaceutical industry index decreased by 1.75%, with various sub-sectors showing mixed performance [6] - The securities sector index fell by 2.57%, with structural performance differences among firms [49] - The machinery sector index declined by 3.69%, with certain sub-sectors like transportation equipment showing positive growth [52] Sector Insights Lithium Battery - The lithium battery sector is currently under pressure due to a decline in industry prices, with a cautious investment outlook recommended [19] Chemical - The chemical sector is advised to focus on coal chemical and light hydrocarbon industries due to their potential for better profitability amidst rising international oil prices [20] New Materials - The new materials sector is characterized by high volatility, with a recommendation to focus on segments with strong growth potential, such as semiconductor materials [24] Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector is influenced by global economic conditions and central bank policies, with investment opportunities in gold and copper suggested [27] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry sector is expected to benefit from recent real estate policy adjustments, with a focus on leading companies in the home furnishing segment [30] Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery - The agriculture sector is experiencing a recovery in pig prices, with expectations for improved profitability in the poultry industry as well [38][40] Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector is seeing a recovery in market turnover efficiency, particularly in health products and baked goods, suggesting potential growth areas [41] Pharmaceutical - The pharmaceutical sector is under short-term pressure but presents mid-term investment opportunities in innovative drugs and blood products [47] Securities - The securities sector is facing a challenging environment, with limited downside potential but uncertain recovery prospects [49] Machinery - The machinery sector is advised to focus on industries benefiting from equipment upgrades and cyclical recovery, such as shipbuilding and robotics [52]

图 5：美国非农就业人数（万人） 第8页 / 共18页 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 创九个月新高；单月上涨 4.4 个点，升幅为去年年初以来最大。商业活动指数飙升 10.3 点，为 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 2024年 2023年 2022年 【出口继续走强，市场或有支撑】5 月出口保持韧性，增长超预期；地产在一线城市政策 放松后，销售有所改善；端午假期消餐饮、出游消费表现良好；由于高基数原因，汽车销售略 有下降。在中央要求"加快专项债发行使用进度"后，新增地方政府专项债券发行在 5 月显著 提速，单月发行规模达 4383 亿元，若新增专项债持续放量发行，将有力支持扩大有效投资， 稳固经济大盘。海外方面，加拿大、欧洲央行首次降息，但欧洲央行降息后的表态相对"鹰派"， 受制于通胀情况，利率降息节奏可能较慢。美国非农数据大超预期，市场对美联储 2024 年首 次降息预测推迟到 12 月。国内市场经过 5 月下旬以来的调整，但宏观和市场监管利好政策预 期 ...

轻工制造 分析师：龙羽洁 登记编码：S0730523120001 地产政策持续加码，关注家居估值修复 l ongyj@ccnew.com 0371-65585753 ——轻工制造行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 同步大市(下调) 轻工制造相对沪深300指数表现 发布日期：2024年06月07日 投资要点： 轻工制造 沪深300 6% ⚫ 市场回顾：5月轻工制造板块下跌2.37%，跑输沪深300指数 1% -4% 1.69pct，涨幅在中信一级行业中排名第20名。细分子板块中， -8% 家具板块上涨，其余板块下跌。个股约三分之一上涨，涨幅靠前 -13% -18% 的5名分别是凯华材料、晨鸣B、恒林股份、喜临门、百亚股份。 -23% 2023.06 2023.10 2024.02 2024.06 -28% ⚫ 造纸：企业收入持续增长，利润延续高增，产量持续增长。原材 资 料来源：中原证券，聚源 料：5月废黄板纸价格下跌，国内纸浆偏稳运行，国际纸浆价格 相关报告 延续上涨。纸品价格：箱板纸/瓦楞纸/双胶纸/双铜纸/白板纸/白卡 《轻工制造行业月报： 浆价延续上涨趋势， 纸/木浆生活用纸/竹浆生活用纸5月末价格分别较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong performance and growth potential [2][3] Core Views - The company's 2023 performance met expectations, with significant growth in net profit in 2024Q1 [2] - The pet food market has substantial growth potential, driven by increasing pet ownership and higher penetration of professional pet food in China [2] - The company's proprietary brand has shown strong performance, enhancing its core competitiveness [2] - Product structure optimization has led to improved profitability, with gross and net margins increasing in 2024Q1 [2][3] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of RMB 4.327 billion, up 27.36% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 429 million, up 60.68% YoY [2] - In 2024Q1, revenue reached RMB 1.097 billion, up 21.33% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 148 million, up 74.49% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin in 2023 was 36.84%, up 4.25 percentage points YoY, and the net margin was 9.95%, up 2.13 percentage points YoY [2] - In 2024Q1, the gross margin further improved to 41.14%, up 6.94 percentage points YoY, and the net margin reached 13.56%, up 4.08 percentage points YoY [2][3] Market and Industry Analysis - The pet food market in China is expected to grow, with pet dog and cat populations increasing by 1.1% and 6.8% respectively in 2023 [2] - The penetration rate of finished pet food in China is still low compared to mature markets like the US and Japan, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The top 3 companies in China's pet food market accounted for 16.6% of the market share in 2022, with further consolidation expected [2] Product and Brand Performance - In 2023, the company's proprietary brand revenue reached RMB 2.745 billion, up 34.15% YoY [2] - The company's domestic revenue grew by 39.38% YoY in 2023, driven by increasing pet ownership and higher penetration of professional pet food [2] - The company's product structure has been optimized, with higher-margin products contributing to improved profitability [2][3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 553 million, RMB 713 million, and RMB 870 million in 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - EPS is projected to be RMB 1.38, RMB 1.78, and RMB 2.18 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [3] - The current PE ratio is 37.32x for 2024, 28.94x for 2025, and 23.72x for 2026, indicating reasonable valuation [3] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's valuation is in line with industry peers, with a PE ratio of 37.32x for 2024, compared to 22.20x for Zhongchong and 24.73x for Peidi [6] - The company's EPS growth is expected to outpace peers, with a projected EPS of RMB 1.38 in 2024, compared to RMB 0.98 for Zhongchong and RMB 0.55 for Peidi [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company for the first time [2]. Core Insights - The company focuses on the stable growth of its core cable business, while the demand for aerospace components is expected to recover [2][6]. - In 2023, the company achieved total operating revenue of 5.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.26%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 32.37% to 82.637 million yuan [2][14]. - The first quarter of 2024 saw a decline in revenue to 1.057 billion yuan, down 12.07% year-on-year, with net profit dropping 58.06% to 14.5332 million yuan [6][14]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - The cable business generated revenue of 2.811 billion yuan in 2023, up 7.55% year-on-year, accounting for 50.43% of total revenue [2][27]. - Aerospace component processing revenue was 155 million yuan, down 11.72% year-on-year, representing 2.78% of total revenue [2][27]. - The aluminum plate and strip business reported revenue of 2.571 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.55% year-on-year, making up 46.14% of total revenue [2][27]. Profitability - The overall gross margin for the company in 2023 was 9.2%, an increase of 1.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 1.62%, down 0.13 percentage points [5][6]. - The gross margin for the cable business improved to 14.54%, up 2.03 percentage points year-on-year, while the aerospace component processing margin significantly decreased to 32.39%, down 14.55 percentage points [5][6]. Market Outlook - The cable industry is expected to see steady growth, supported by significant investments in the power grid, with the State Grid planning to invest 2.4 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7][9]. - The aerospace component business is anticipated to benefit from the release of military demand and the ramp-up of the C919 aircraft production, with the market for civil aircraft components projected to reach 1.2 trillion yuan [13][14]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 6.421 billion yuan, 7.365 billion yuan, and 8.267 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 194 million yuan, 241 million yuan, and 296 million yuan [14][15].

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 周期行业领涨 A 股窄幅波动 内容目录 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------|-----------------------------------------------|----------------|------------| | | 表 2：港股主要指数表现（单位：点） \n指数名称 | 最新价 | 当天涨跌幅 | | | 恒生指数 | 18,476.80 0.3% | | | | 恒生国企指数 | 6,555.06 0.2% | | | | 恒生红筹指数 | 3,935.43 0.4% | | | 资料来源： | Wind ，中原证券研究所 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 特别声明 ——市场分析 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2024 年 06 月 06 日 《市场分析：军工半导体行业领涨 A 股震荡 整理》 2024-06-05 《市场分析：电力地产行业走强 A 股小幅上 涨》 2024-06-04 《市场分析：通信 ...

投资要点： l 5 月，沪深 300 下跌 0.68%，有色板块上涨 0.65%，在 30 个行业中排名第 8，表现中等。 有色子行业中，铅锌（7.86%）、铝（5.53%）、黄金（3.66%）、钨（1.19%）、镍钴锡锑（- 0.62%）、其他稀有金属（-0.70%）、稀土及磁性材料（-2.08%）、铜（-3.11%）、锂（- 6.92%）。有色板块个股方面，53 家上涨，2 家平，69 家下跌。 l 基本金属：LME 与 SHFE 金属价格普遍上涨。5 月中公布的美国 4 月 CPI 数据符合市场预 期，核心 CPI 为自 2021 年 4 月以来最小涨幅，美联储 9 月降息概率增加，叠加国内利好政策 频出，金属价格普遍上涨。但随后公布的国内 5 月官方制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，低于荣枯线， 表明制造业复苏进程有所反复，且目前受到高价影响的基本金属下游需求复苏进度仍有待观 察，金属价格普遍回落，预计近期基本金属价格呈现震荡格局。 l 贵金属：黄金价格上涨，白银价格大涨，美元指数下跌。受到美国通胀数据降温、地缘政治 冲突、美联储近期会议纪要偏鹰等因素影响，金价波动加剧。受到国际局势复杂多变、全球 央行 ...

发布日期：2024 年 06 月 06 日 投资要点： ⚫ 公司业绩短期承压。根据公司公告，2023 年实现总营收 70.56 亿 元，同比-5.09%；归母净利润 7.49 亿元，同比-6.55%；扣非后归 母净利润 6.46 亿元，同比-8.95%。其中，2023Q4 公司营收 16.41 亿元，同比-21.83%；归母净利润 1.97 亿元，同比-28.63%。2024 年一季度，公司营收为 22.54 亿元，同比-5.01%；归母净利润 2.30 亿元，同比-17.76%。受到行业市场竞争加剧和猪肉价格长期低位 对于包馅类产品销售产生负面影响，2023 年公司水饺品类陷入量 价双向承压的局面，导致公司业绩短期承压。 ⚫ 行业市场规模仍有增长空间。参考日、美等国，饮食外部化与餐饮 连锁化共同推动了餐饮企业对标准化速冻产品的需求快速提高。根 据公司公告，2022 年中国餐饮连锁化率为 19%，美国为 58.4%， 日本接近 50%。相较于美国和日本等成熟市场，中国餐饮连锁化仍 有较大空间，从而进一步推动对于速冻食品需求的增长。另一方面， 2024 年一季度开始，生猪价格企稳回升。根据钢联数据，2024 年 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 军工半导体行业领涨 A 股震荡整理 《市场分析：电力地产行业走强 A 股小幅上 涨》 2024-06-04 《市场分析：通信半导体行业领涨 A 股小幅 震荡》 2024-06-03 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅震荡》 2024-05-31 电话： 021-50586973 地址： 上海浦东新区世纪大道1788 号16 楼 邮编： 200122 证券研究报告-市场分析 发布日期：2024 年 06 月 05 日 ◼ A 股市场综述 ◼ 后市研判及投资建议 第1页 / 共7页 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 表 3: 中信一级行业全天深跌幅分布情况（单位: 点）. 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 周三（06 月 05 日）A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡整理，早盘股指低开后震荡上行，沪指盘 中在 3092 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指震荡回落，盘中航天航空、船舶制造以及半导体等行业表 现较好；银行、文化传媒、 ...