主业快速增长，自研品种不断推进 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入(维持) 市场价格：30.88 元 [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 676.61 932.12 1197.90 1492.91 1878.87 增长率 yoy% 37.06% 37.76% 28.51% 24.63% 25.85% 净利润（百万元） 156.47 184.76 240.76 303.32 397.01 增长率 yoy% 48.09% 18.08% 30.31% 25.98% 30.89% 每股收益（元） 1.40 1.65 2.15 2.71 3.54 每股现金流量 0.93 0.83 1.89 1.61 2.43 净资产收益率 17.45% 17.76% 19.07% 19.89% 21.14% P/E 22.10 18.72 14.37 11.40 8.71 PEG 0.46 1.04 0.47 0.44 0.28 P/B 3.86 3.33 2.74 2.27 1.84 备注：截止 ...

[Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：79.88 元/股 [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 1,071 691 835 1,075 1,323 增长率 yoy% 22% -35% 21% 29% 23% 净利润（百万元） 526 252 307 431 551 增长率 yoy% 20% -52% 22% 40% 28% 每股收益（元） 3.89 1.86 2.27 3.18 4.06 每股现金流量 2.91 2.37 1.48 2.54 3.36 净资产收益率 17% 8% 9% 11% 12% P/E 20.6 43.0 35.2 25.1 19.7 P/B 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.4 备注：每股指标按照最新股本数全面摊薄，股价按 9 月 9 日收盘价进行计算 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 135 流通股本(百万股) 135 市价(元) 79.88 市值(百万元) 10,819 流通市值(百万元) 10,81 ...

Core Insights - The report estimates that the current adjustment space for existing mortgage rates is around 50 basis points, which will impact the net interest margin (NIM) of listed banks by approximately -5.6 basis points, revenue by -3.1 percentage points, and pre-tax profit by -7 percentage points for 2025 [2] - Considering both the adjustment of existing mortgage rates and deposit rates, the comprehensive impact on NIM for 2025 is projected to be -4.4 basis points, with revenue affected by -2.4 percentage points and pre-tax profit by -5.4 percentage points [2] - The adjustment of existing mortgage rates is expected to help alleviate the growth pressure on retail assets and the repayment burden on residents, thereby maintaining banks' NIM and optimizing asset quality in the long term [2] Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Existing Mortgage Rate Adjustments - By the end of 2023, over 23 trillion yuan of existing mortgage loans had been adjusted, accounting for 60% of the total existing housing loan scale, with an average reduction of 0.73 percentage points, resulting in a weighted average interest rate of 4.27% [2] - The expected decline in existing mortgage rates by early 2025 is projected to be below 3.9%, considering the current LPR reduction of 35 basis points and the historical trend of new loan rates being lower than existing rates [2] 2. Effects of Deposit Rate Adjustments - The reduction in deposit rates has a lagging effect on supporting NIM, with costs starting to decline from Q4 2023 and a more significant drop in Q2 2024 [2] - If deposit rates are further reduced during the current mortgage rate adjustment cycle, it is estimated to support NIM by 2.86 basis points for 2024 and 1.14 basis points for 2025, with corresponding revenue and pre-tax profit impacts [2] 3. Comprehensive Analysis of Mortgage and Deposit Rate Adjustments - The simultaneous consideration of existing mortgage rate reductions and further deposit rate cuts suggests a manageable impact on NIM for 2025, with a comprehensive effect of -4.4 basis points on NIM, -2.4 percentage points on revenue, and -5.4 percentage points on pre-tax profit [2] - The report highlights that while mortgage loan issuance in 2023 is higher than in 2022, the balance has decreased due to high early repayment rates, indicating that lower existing mortgage rates could stabilize the mortgage loan scale and improve banks' retail asset quality [2]

1 证券研究报告：大宗商品观察系列 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 全球制造业景气度跟踪：8月持续走低 谢鸿鹤（ SAC证书编号：S0740517080003 ） 安永超（ SAC证书编号：S0740522090002 ） 2024年9月9日 时间 月份 上行↑下行↓ Jul-09 Feb-11 20 ↑ Mar-11 Aug-12 18 ↓ Sep-12 Feb-14 18 ↑ Mar-14 Feb-16 24 ↓ Mar-16 Dec-17 22 ↑ Jan-18 Jul-19 19 ↓ Aug-19 May-21 22 ↑ Jun-21 Dec-22 19 ↓ Jan-23 - 20 ↑ 全球制造业景气（库存周期）刻度：上行通道受阻 全球8月制造业PMI指数录得49.5，环比明显回落0.2个百分点，月度值持续处于收缩区间； 若以2023年1月份为启动点，2024年1月份全球制造业PMI进入扩张区间，本轮周期累计运行20个月。 图表： 全球制造业PMI指数与库存周期滤波图 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 40 42 44 ...

[Table_Industry] Q2 利润同环比翻倍，规模效应推动盈利能力显著改善 圣邦股份(300661.SZ)/电子 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 09 月 10 日 | --- | |-----------------------------------------------| | | | | | [Table_ 评级：买入 Invest] [Table_Industry] | [Table_ 分析师：Authors 王芳 ] 执业证书编号：S0740521120002 Email：wangfang02@zts.com.cn 分析师： 杨旭 执业证书编号：S0740521120001 Email：yangxu01@zts.com.cn 分析师： 王九鸿 执业证书编号：S0740523110004 Email：wangjh07@zts.com.cn | --- | --- | |---------------------------|--------| | | | | | | | [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | | | 总股本 ( 百万股 ) | 472 | | 流通股本 ( 百万 ...

招商积余（001914.SZ）/房 地产行业 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 9 月 9 日 [Table_Industry] | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------|--------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 15.88 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth from 2024 to 2026, with projected revenues of 78.22 billion CNY, 85.46 billion CNY, and 95.57 billion CNY respectively. Corresponding net profits are forecasted to be 15.81 billion CNY, 17.74 billion CNY, and 20.11 billion CNY, with P/E ratios of 19, 17, and 15 times [5]. - The company reported a slight revenue increase of 0.32% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, but net profit saw a significant decline of 93.30% [4]. - The company is focusing on diversifying its business segments, with varying performance across different sectors, such as a 16.99% decline in wealth technology services and a 9.17% increase in asset management technology services [4]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 6,502 million CNY, with a projected increase to 7,281 million CNY in 2023, and further growth to 7,822 million CNY in 2024 [1]. - The net profit for 2022 was 1,091 million CNY, expected to rise to 1,424 million CNY in 2023, and reach 1,581 million CNY in 2024 [1]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2024 was reported at 71.32%, indicating stable profitability [4]. - The company has implemented effective cost control measures, resulting in a decrease in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios compared to the previous year [4]. Stock Performance and Market Capitalization - The total share capital of the company is 1,894 million shares, with a market capitalization of 30,079 million CNY [2]. - The stock price as of September 9, 2024, is 15.88 CNY, reflecting the company's current market valuation [2].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In August 2024, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[1] - Year-on-year, the CPI rose by 0.6%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, but below market expectations of 0.7%[1] - Food prices significantly supported the CPI, with a month-on-month increase of 3.4%, contributing approximately 0.6 percentage points to the CPI rise[1] - Extreme weather conditions led to notable price increases in fresh vegetables (18.1%), fresh mushrooms (9.8%), fresh fruits (3.8%), and eggs (3.3%) in August[1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 0.7% month-on-month in August, with the decline widening by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[1] - Year-on-year, the PPI fell by 1.8%, a larger drop than the market expectation of -1.4%[1] - The decline in PPI was primarily driven by insufficient domestic demand and falling prices of some international bulk commodities[1] - In August, upstream raw material prices fell by 1.2% and mining prices by 1.6%, both showing a significant decline from previous values[1] Group 3: Core CPI Insights - Excluding food and energy prices, the core CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the average of 0.0% over the past five years[1] - The core CPI year-on-year was 0.3%, down from 0.4%, marking the lowest level since April 2021, indicating weak domestic demand[1] - The overall price trend remains weak, with the core CPI reflecting increasing downward pressure on prices[1] Group 4: Economic Implications - The report highlights that the current economic environment is characterized by weak consumer demand and low price levels, with oversupply being a significant issue[1] - The need for fiscal stimulus and moderate supply-side adjustments is emphasized to address the low price situation[1] - Risks include potential policy changes and economic recovery not meeting expectations, which could impact future market conditions[1]

核心 CPI 环比转负——8 月通胀数据点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 9 月 9 日 [Table_Industry] [分Ta析bl师e_：Ti肖tle雨] 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 投资要点 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 研究助理：张可迎 事件：国家统计局公布，2024 年 8 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.6%，环比上涨 0.4%；PPI 同比 下降 1.8%，环比下降 0.7%。我们点评如下： 8 月 CPI 同比 0.6%（前值 0.5%），不及市场预期值 0.7%，食品和非食品明显分化，增 速分别为 2.8%和 0.2%。从八大项来看，除"食品烟酒"分项同比增速大幅回升以外， 其余分项增速均出现回落，呈现食品价格上升、服务业价格走弱特征。 食品项是 8 月份 CPI 回升的主要拉动项，由猪肉和鲜菜价格上涨带动。8 月份食品 CP I 同比增速为 2.8%（前值为 0），去年 7 月至今年 6 月，食品价格同比增速持续为负， 而随着 7 月份猪肉价格和鲜菜价格上涨，食品项 CPI 同比升至 0 附近。8 月份，供给冲 击进一步发酵，生猪产能去化进一步 ...

、 测算｜存量房贷利率下调的影响：负债端支撑下影响可控 银行 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 09 月 09 日 [Table_Title] 评级：增持（维持） 分析师 戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email：daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师 邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email：dengmj@zts.com.cn 研究助理 杨超伦 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn 研究助理 Email：yangcl@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 上市公司数 42 行业总市值(亿元) 112,493 行业流通市值(亿元) 77,125 [Table_QuotePic] 行业-市场走势对比 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 公司持有该股票比例 [Table_Report] 相关报告 [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 报告摘要 ◼ 核心观点：1、房贷利率下调测算：本轮存量房贷利率下调空间在 50bp 左右，对上 市银行 25E 息差影响-5.6bp，营收-3.1pcts ...