Group 1 - The overall age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of all cancers in China increased by approximately 1.4% annually from 2000 to 2018, attributed to heightened public awareness and increased participation in cancer screenings [9][11][15] - Male cancer incidence rates remained stable, with significant increases in thyroid, prostate, and colorectal cancers, while esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers showed a declining trend [9][11][15] - Female cancer incidence rates increased significantly at an average of 2.6% per year, driven primarily by rising rates of thyroid and cervical cancers, with declines in esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers [11][15] Group 2 - The overall age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for all cancers in China decreased by an average of 1.3% annually from 2000 to 2008, reflecting improvements in cancer prevention and treatment [15][16] - The decline in cancer mortality rates was particularly noted for esophageal, gastric, and liver cancers, with male and female mortality rates showing a downward trend [15][16] - In the period from 2014 to 2018, significant decreases in ASMR were observed for gastric, liver, and esophageal cancers among both genders [16] Group 3 - Lung cancer remains the most prevalent cancer in China, with approximately 1.0605 million new cases and 733,300 deaths in 2022, accounting for 42.8% and 40.4% of global totals, respectively [23][24] - Colorectal cancer ranks second in incidence, with about 517,100 new cases in 2022, and the incidence and mortality rates are slightly above the global average [29][30] - Liver cancer is the second leading cause of cancer deaths in China, with approximately 367,700 new cases and 316,500 deaths in 2022, significantly higher than global averages [32][35] Group 4 - Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer deaths in China, with around 358,700 new cases and 260,400 deaths in 2022, also exceeding global averages [36][40] - Thyroid cancer incidence in China has rapidly increased, with 466,100 new cases in 2022, representing over 50% of global new cases, and a five-year survival rate of 92.9% [41][44]

证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年3月13日 全球制造业有望复苏，全球化重塑或助推商品走强 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 核心观点 2 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业接力复苏，商品通胀或上行。欧洲短期复苏加速，美国受高利率压制但中期有望释放动能，长期中国重塑全 球化格局，效率优先带动制造业扩张和商品需求的上行。 • 欧洲复苏叠加债务扩张动能或将从短期推动制造业景气改善。短期欧洲复苏斜率较高，叠加欧洲突破财政纪律，加码基 建和能源安全，或将直接拉动制造业需求。 • 此前美国高利率抑制全球制造业资本开支。美债利率高企的根源是服务业通胀粘性延长紧缩周期，导致制造业融资成本 高企， 资本开支受抑制，商品通胀疲弱。 • 中期维度，美债利率下行释放制造业资本开支空间。主动降息和经济衰退，无论哪种路径都将带动利率下行，制造业资 本开支回升将推升商品通胀。 • 长期趋势是中国破局逆全球化，重构效率优先模式。美国逆全球化加剧，中国重塑全球化格局，打破美国的"垄断分工 "模式 ...

证券研究报告|策略专题报告 产业经济 2025年3月13日 全球制造业有望复苏，全球化重塑或助推商品走强 证券分析师： 李 浩 执业证书编号：S0210524050003 李刘魁 执业证书编号：S0210524050006 华福证券 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 核心观点 2 华福证券 华福证券 华福证券 • 全球制造业接力复苏，商品通胀或上行。欧洲短期复苏加速，美国受高利率压制但中期有望释放动能，长期中国重塑全 球化格局，效率优先带动制造业扩张和商品需求的上行。 • 欧洲复苏叠加债务扩张动能或将从短期推动制造业景气改善。短期欧洲复苏斜率较高，叠加欧洲突破财政纪律，加码基 建和能源安全，或将直接拉动制造业需求。 • 此前美国高利率抑制全球制造业资本开支。美债利率高企的根源是服务业通胀粘性延长紧缩周期，导致制造业融资成本 高企， 资本开支受抑制，商品通胀疲弱。 • 中期维度，美债利率下行释放制造业资本开支空间。主动降息和经济衰退，无论哪种路径都将带动利率下行，制造业资 本开支回升将推升商品通胀。 • 长期趋势是中国破局逆全球化，重构效率优先模式。美国逆全球化加剧，中国重塑全球化格局，打破美国的"垄断分工 "模式 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [5][7]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the heparin raw material market, with a strong potential for growth in its API business due to improving market conditions [3][4]. - The company is focusing on its sterile injection formulations, which are experiencing rapid growth in overseas markets, supported by a robust product matrix and strategic acquisitions [4][61]. - The global biosimilar market is expected to expand significantly, and the company is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend through both self-developed products and strategic partnerships [5][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has transitioned from a traditional heparin raw material supplier to a high-end injection formulation and biosimilar provider, covering multiple therapeutic areas [13][16]. 2. Heparin API Market Improvement - The heparin raw material market is showing signs of recovery, with expectations for price stabilization and potential revenue growth for the company [3][31]. - The company has a strong production and sales level in its heparin API business, which is crucial for funding its injection formulation expansion [36][37]. 3. Focus on Sterile Injection Formulations - The company's injection business has seen significant revenue growth, with a 12.8% increase in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.4% from 2018 to 2023 [41][46]. - The company has a diverse product line in the injection segment, including low molecular weight heparin and anti-tumor agents, with a strong competitive position in the domestic market [47][55]. 4. Biosimilar Drug Development - The global biosimilar market is projected to grow rapidly, with the company actively developing multiple biosimilar products and securing market entry through strategic acquisitions [67][72]. - The company has made significant progress in obtaining FDA approvals for its biosimilar products, positioning itself as a key player in the U.S. market [72][73]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve substantial profit growth, with projected net profits of 9.0 billion, 11.9 billion, and 15.4 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The heparin raw material market is showing marginal improvement, and the company's API business is expected to grow steadily [3][29]. - The company is focusing on sterile injection formulations, with rapid growth in overseas formulation business [4][41]. - The global biosimilar drug market is anticipated to grow significantly, with the company leveraging both self-research and business development (BD) models to expand its growth potential [5][67]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is a leading supplier of heparin raw materials and has been transitioning towards high-end injection formulations and biosimilars, aiming to reduce its reliance on traditional raw material labels [13][16]. 2. Heparin Raw Material Market - The heparin raw material market is expected to recover as supply-side stability and the end of inventory destocking on the demand side are anticipated [3][31]. - The company has established stable supply relationships with major global heparin formulation manufacturers, providing a solid cash flow for its injection business [36][37]. 3. Focus on Sterile Injection Formulations - The company's injection business has shown robust growth, with a revenue increase of 12.8% in 2023 and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47.4% from 2018 to 2023 [41][46]. - The company has a diverse product matrix in sterile injections, including low molecular weight heparin and anti-tumor agents, with a significant portion of revenue coming from overseas markets [47][55]. 4. Biosimilar Drug Development - The global biosimilar market is projected to grow rapidly, with the company actively pursuing opportunities in this space, including acquiring rights to a biosimilar of adalimumab [5][72]. - The company has multiple biosimilar products in various stages of development, enhancing its growth prospects in international markets [67][72]. 5. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 0.9 billion, 1.2 billion, and 1.5 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with significant growth rates projected [5][6].

功能智能风潮引领看见革命 证券分析师： 李宏鹏 执业证书编号：S0210524050017 汪浚哲 执业证书编号：S0210524050024 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点： 证券研究报告|行业深度 轻工制造 行业评级强于大市（维持评级） 2025年3月12日 镜片行业深度： 华福证券 ➢ 镜片行业：规模稳增，功能性需求逐步释放。据欧睿，2024年全球眼镜市场规模约1040.82亿美元，同比+5.1%，预计2029年将达1313.4亿美元， 24-29年CAGR达4.8%。2023年全球CR10眼镜公司份额（零售额计）为44.8%，其中依视路以27.8%的份额绝对领先，其次为蔡司4.6%、豪雅4.5%。 我国镜片行业：1）需求端：2024年我国眼镜市场规模约737亿元，同比+7.6%，预计2029年将达970亿元，24-29年CAGR达5.7%。随消费者对视 力保护的重视，近视防控、渐进、变色、防蓝光等功能性镜片需求释放。2）供给端：我国是眼镜生产和出口大国，据Trade Map，2023年我国眼镜 出口占全球58.6%，出口均价相对较低。内销方面，海外龙头主导高端市场，内资品牌 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The merger between North Huachuang and ChipSource Micro is expected to reshape the semiconductor equipment market, marking a new growth phase in advanced manufacturing [4][8] - The collaboration is significant for China's semiconductor industry, as both companies are leaders in their respective fields and possess top-notch technological capabilities [4] - The merger is anticipated to create synergies, enhancing product offerings and market reach while optimizing resource allocation and reducing costs [8] Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - North Huachuang plans to acquire control of ChipSource Micro, with significant share transfers from major shareholders [2] - The semiconductor equipment market is dominated by a few key players, with the top five companies accounting for approximately 85% of the global market revenue [3] Strategic Importance - The merger is seen as a critical step for overcoming challenges posed by external sanctions and the need for increased domestic production [4] - The integration of technologies and products from both companies is expected to enhance manufacturing precision and efficiency [4][8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the accelerated growth and competitive landscape reshaping in advanced manufacturing, semiconductor equipment, and key components [9] - Specific companies to watch include North Huachuang, ChipSource Micro, and others in the semiconductor supply chain [9]

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 08 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：万华万吨级生物基 1,3-丁二醇装置投 产，工信部印发民爆行业转型升级实施意见 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数上涨 1.56%，创业板指数上涨 1.61%， 沪深 300 上涨 1.39%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.65%，申万化工指数上涨 2.27%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为钛 白粉(6.05%)、涂料油墨颜料(4.17%)、其他化学制品Ⅲ(4.03%)、电子化学品(3%)、 绵纶(2.96%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为轮胎(-1.8%)、纯碱(-0.72%)、 粘胶(0.13%)、橡胶制品(0.5%)、氯碱(0.74%)。 本周行业主要动态： 万华万吨级生物基 1,3-丁二醇装置投产。近日，万华化学采用自主研发的 专利技术，以非主粮生物质为原料，建成并投产全球首套万吨级生物基 1,3-丁 二醇装置。万华化学 1,3-丁二醇装置采用其自主研发的专利技术，通过创新的 催化剂及生产工艺，大幅提升其原料利用率，避免资源浪费，减少"三废"产 ...

Core Insights - Companies are utilizing "high export reporting/low import reporting" to retain USD deposits, combined with expectations of RMB depreciation, creating a dual drive of interest rate spread and exchange rate gains [3] - The inversion of the China-US interest rate spread intensifies capital outflow pressure, leading to a negative feedback loop between short-term capital flows and currency depreciation [3] - The counter-cyclical factor aims to stabilize unilateral depreciation or appreciation expectations, with targeted and flexible implementation of tools [3] - The counter-cyclical factor compresses traditional interest arbitrage space, promoting capital inflow into China's risk-free assets [3] - The convergence of the counter-cyclical factor reflects a weakening of depreciation expectations, slowing the momentum of foreign capital inflow into short-term bonds, with marginal liquidity easing [3] - Under the capital control framework, companies engage in interest arbitrage through trade channels, essentially constituting "institutional arbitrage," necessitating ongoing regulatory balance between openness and risk [3] - The cognitive-behavioral-outcome cycle includes cognitive biases, with cognitive correction potentially initiating a positive cycle [3] - Expectations of RMB appreciation may trigger foreign capital to increase allocation to Chinese equity assets, forming a positive feedback loop of "asset prices ↑ → exchange rate ↑ → capital inflow ↑" [3] - Risks associated with USD assets may drive international capital towards RMB assets, with attention on the narrowing of the China-US interest rate spread and the slope of domestic economic recovery [3] Traditional Interest Arbitrage Logic - Companies utilize trade channels: Export revenues in USD lead companies to retain foreign exchange domestically rather than converting to RMB when the China-US interest rate spread widens [6] - Matching RMB debt with USD assets: Companies increase RMB loans for daily funding needs while holding USD revenues as deposits to earn interest rate spreads [6] - The role of exchange rate expectations: If companies anticipate RMB depreciation against USD, holding USD deposits allows them to earn both interest rate spreads and exchange rate gains [6] Reverse Interest Arbitrage: Policy-Driven Capital Inflow - The negative swap points indicate appreciation expectations, with the current 1Y USDCNY swap points at -2224 points, suggesting an annualized arbitrage yield of approximately 3.06% [20] - USD holders can lock in exchange rate gains through buy/sell CNY swaps, making the actual yield of RMB assets (interest rate + appreciation gains) surpass US Treasury yields, creating a localized capital inflow loop [20] Counter-Cyclical Tool Impact - The reduction of positive interest arbitrage and the promotion of reverse interest arbitrage are conducted through two main lines: increasing liability costs and enhancing reverse interest arbitrage returns [23] - Short-term coordination of interest rate and exchange rate policies is necessary to adjust the midpoint and tighten offshore RMB liquidity, impacting offshore exchange rates to compress arbitrage space [25] - The counter-cyclical factor's use reflects a dynamic adjustment to manage exchange rate expectations, with intervention intensifying when the RMB shows weakness against a basket of currencies [28] Market Dynamics and Feedback Loops - The reversal of interest arbitrage will drive RMB appreciation, aligning with the "cognitive-behavioral-outcome" positive feedback mechanism [44] - The narrowing of interest spreads and the resulting cognitive corrections may lead to increased foreign capital inflow into Chinese assets, reinforcing the cycle of asset price increases and currency appreciation [44][47]