华福证券 固 收 研 究 Table_First|Table_Summary 固定收益专题 2025 年 3 月 28 日 【华福固收】特别国债快来了吗？ 投资要点： Table_First e 团队成员 Table_First|Table_Author 分析师: 徐亮 执业证书编号： S0210524040003 邮箱：xl30484@hfzq.com.cn Table_First|Table_Contacter 研究助理： 黄紫仪 邮箱：hzy30614@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 p yT tro p eR _ e lb aT |ts r 近期主要期限单只附息国债发行规模创历史最大值，引起市场关 注。我们复盘了2020年来三次国债增量供给前的情况，得出以下结 论： 固 定 收 益 专 题 三次国债增量供给前都出现了月度平均发行规模出现较大幅度升 高的现象，持续时间分别是3个月、1个月、1个月，并且在增量供 给前一个月的月度平均发行规模均创下历史最高值。2025年3月附 息国债的月度平均发行规模也较2月出现了大幅升高且接近历史最 高值 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [7][20]. Core Views - The company experienced short-term fluctuations in its performance for 2024, with a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, and a net profit of 1.031 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year. The operating cash flow showed strong performance, reaching 1.21 billion yuan, an increase of 17.2% [3][5][4]. - The CDMO (Contract Development and Manufacturing Organization) business is expected to see significant growth, with a project count increasing by 77% year-on-year, indicating a robust pipeline for future revenue [6][7]. - The antibiotic API and formulation sales are under short-term pressure, but the raw material and formulation business is projected to have a "front low and back high" trend in 2025, with improved profitability expected as the product matrix expands [6][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 12.022 billion yuan, with a breakdown showing raw material drug revenue at 8.65 billion yuan (+8.3%), formulation revenue at 1.26 billion yuan (+0.5%), and CDMO revenue at 1.88 billion yuan (-6.1%). The overall gross margin for formulations improved to 60.8% (+7.7 percentage points) [5][6]. - The net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.15 billion yuan, 1.33 billion yuan, and 1.56 billion yuan, with growth rates of 12%, 15%, and 17% respectively [7][8]. - The company’s financial ratios indicate a stable outlook, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 17.4 in 2024 to 11.5 in 2027, reflecting anticipated growth in earnings [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 245.55 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.48% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 20.01% to 10.135 billion yuan [2][3]. - The decline in revenue was primarily due to a 2.85% drop in average on-grid electricity prices, which resulted in a revenue loss of 5.806 billion yuan, despite a 1.13% increase in on-grid electricity volume [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.27 yuan per share, totaling approximately 4.238 billion yuan, reflecting a cash dividend payout ratio of 58.78% for 2024 [3]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's coal-fired power generation revenue decreased by 4.59% in 2024, with total profit amounting to 7.138 billion yuan, a significant increase of 1548% year-on-year [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price for coal-fired generation fell, but the reduction in fuel costs contributed to the profit growth [4]. - The company is actively investing in low-carbon development, with planned capital expenditures for wind and solar energy reaching 51.2 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.01 billion yuan [5]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 10.164 billion yuan, 10.556 billion yuan, and 10.877 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 10.3, and 10.0 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [5][17]. Core Insights - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.506 billion yuan, representing a significant year-on-year increase of 229.70% [2][3]. - The company's operating revenue for 2024 was 123.474 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.86% compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.0621 yuan per share, totaling 1.149 billion yuan, which is 25.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3]. Financial Performance - The company's electricity generation increased by approximately 3.81% in 2024, while the average on-grid electricity price decreased by about 3.22% [3]. - The reduction in fuel costs contributed to a decrease of 4.119 billion yuan in electricity fuel expenses, enhancing profitability [3]. - The gross margin and net margin improved by 3.12 percentage points and 3.1 percentage points, respectively, indicating enhanced profitability [3]. Segment Performance - The coal power segment achieved a profit of 2.567 billion yuan in 2024, with a profit per kilowatt-hour of 0.0132 yuan, marking a turnaround from a loss in the previous year [4]. - Hydropower profitability increased by 0.0157 yuan per kilowatt-hour, while wind and solar power profitability experienced fluctuations [4]. - The company’s low-carbon clean energy capacity increased to 40.37%, with significant ongoing and approved projects in wind and solar energy [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 4.582 billion yuan, 4.605 billion yuan, and 4.607 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 11.8, 11.7, and 11.7 [5][6].

华福证券 锂 2025 年 03 月 26 日 公 司 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 评 永兴材料（002756.SZ） 2024 年报点评：周期底部静待反转，成本优势构 筑护城河 投资要点： 2024 年归母净利润同比-69% 2024 年公司实现营业收入 80.74 亿元，同比-33.76%；归母净利 10.43 亿元，同比-69.37%；扣非后归母净利润 8.94 亿元，同比-72.4%。 其中，Q4 营业收入 18.43 亿元，环比+5.98%；归母净利 0.73 亿元，环 比-64%；扣非后归母净利润 1.2 亿元，环比-29%。 锂盐持续降本毛利率 37%，属于行业较高水平 1）量：公司 2024 年锂盐销量约为 2.6 万吨，同比-3.23%，产量 2.6 万吨，同比-3.9%，库存量 453 吨，同比+4.62%。2）价：碳酸锂价 格降幅较大。据 SMM，2024 年电池级碳酸锂含税均价为 9.05，同比 -65.56%。3）利：公司将降本控制在第一位，通过选矿提效、焙烧工 艺改进等，锂云母提锂综合成本持续优化，2024 年碳酸锂单吨营业成 本约 4.7 万元，受碳酸锂价格下跌影响，锂盐产品毛利 ...

华福证券 公 司 研 究 晨光股份（603899.SH） 全年稳健收官，文创龙头变革前行 投资要点： 公 事件：公司发布 2024 年报。全年实现营收 242.28 亿元同比+3.8%，归 母净利润 13.96 亿元同比-8.6%，扣除股份支付后归母净利润 14.7 亿元同比 -2.81%。单 Q4 实现营收 71 亿元同比-5%，归母净利润 3.7 亿元同比-13.5%。 全年拟分红比例为 65.61%。 司 财 报 点 评 传统核心强化内功，新业务稳步发展。分业务：①传统核心：全年营 收 93 亿元同比+2%，其中晨光科技 11.4 亿元同比+33%。公司坚持多渠道 发展，坚持从批发商向零售服务商转型赋能终端经营质量提升，开拓办公 及精品直供创造增量。②科力普：全年实现营收 138 亿元同比+3.9%，产品 端着力拓展营销礼品及 MRO 工业品供应链的开发，客户端存量客户深耕 与增量客户拓展并进，业绩保持稳健增长。③零售大店：实现营收 14.8 亿 元同比+10.8%，其中九木杂物社营收 14.06 亿元同比+13%，零售大店 779 家，九木杂物社 741 家，零售大店年内净开店 120 家。分产品：书 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [6][17]. Core Viewpoints - The company's 2024 revenue was reported at 7.47 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.8%, with drug sales revenue at 8.62 billion RMB, down 9%. The annual profit was 1.61 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 32.3%, but the performance met expectations [1]. - The company has seen its non-national procurement exclusive varieties and innovative products account for over 50% of its revenue, indicating a positive shift towards innovation [2]. - The impact of centralized procurement on three key products resulted in a revenue of 2.69 billion RMB, down 28.8% year-on-year. However, revenue from non-national procurement exclusive and innovative products reached 4.55 billion RMB, up 4.1%, making up 52.8% of total revenue, suggesting that the short-term impact of centralized procurement has largely cleared [3]. - The company is entering a harvest phase for its innovative business, with a significant product, Luracitinib, expected to be launched by 2025. In 2024, one innovative product was successfully launched, and another received approval for a new indication, indicating progress in its pipeline [4]. Financial Data and Forecast - The company’s financial projections for 2025-2027 estimate net profits of 1.63 billion RMB, 2.04 billion RMB, and 2.46 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 1%, 25%, and 21% respectively. This reflects an adjustment from previous forecasts [4]. - The main revenue figures are as follows: 2023A at 8.01 billion RMB, 2024A at 7.47 billion RMB, with expected growth rates of -12%, -7%, and positive growth in subsequent years [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.67 RMB in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10.2, indicating a stable valuation outlook [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark index within the next six months [5][16]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 10.918 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.42%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.490 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.12% [2][3]. - The net profit, excluding investment income from joint ventures, showed a significant increase of 42.02%, reaching 1.416 billion yuan [3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.70 yuan per 10 shares, with an expected payout of 920 million yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 61.74% [3]. Financial Performance - The company's high-end product revenue reached approximately 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 22% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 25% [4]. - The overall sales gross margin improved by 1.45 percentage points to 27.63%, while the net profit margin decreased by 3.49 percentage points to 13.92% due to a lack of investment income from joint ventures [4]. - The company’s alloy business generated revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, with a net profit of 109 million yuan, significantly higher than the previous year [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.741 billion yuan, 1.935 billion yuan, and 2.149 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.2, 12.8, and 11.5 [5][6].

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 3 月 25 日 【华福固收】修复期的信用债投资思路 ➢ 修复期的信用债投资思路： 前期在资金面收敛环境下短端调整幅度大，一年期银行二永债点位所处分位点相对高， 如一年期银行二级债AAA-目前点位为2%，历史分位点为11.8%，高于同期限城投和产业 债；3年期城投债AA+目前点位所处历史分位数为10.8%，一年期产业债AAA目前点位所处 历史分位数为10.3%。 短端方面，目前性价比相对高且买盘多，建议关注票息资产的配置价值。可结合负债端 稳定性选择，负债端稳定高的机构可选择部分优质主体逢高配置3年期以上品种博取票 息受益，如城投债、产投债、央国企产业债及地产债、二永债。而负债端稳定性偏弱的 机构可优先关注中短端低等级品种，如3年以内云贵、陕西省级国企债、3年以内天津、 太原、潍坊市级、青岛市级、昆明市级平台债，以及3年以内央企地产债、钢企债。 另一方面，预计资金面保持稳定的概率较大，后续需关注3月信贷以及政府债发行情况， 可等待时机选择3至5年期信用债。 ➢ 城投债观点 "两会"之后，国家指导地方政府务实发展本地特色产业 "两会 ...