Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential of second-generation 4-1BB agonists, particularly dual-target antibodies, which have shown promising efficacy while addressing safety concerns associated with liver toxicity [4][24] - The report highlights significant recent industry events, including Merck's acquisition of Cidara for approximately $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera, indicating a trend of consolidation in the biopharmaceutical sector [6] - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for China's innovative drug sector, driven by increasing data catalysts and new product sales, recommending specific companies for investment [6] Summary by Sections 4-1BB Overview - 4-1BB (CD137) is a key member of the tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily, crucial for T cell activation and immune response enhancement [4][10] - The second-generation CAR-T cell technology utilizing 4-1BB has been validated for inducing prolonged activation and survival of CAR-T cells in vivo [4][12] First-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - First-generation 4-1BB agonists like urelumab and utomilumab faced limitations due to liver toxicity and insufficient efficacy [16][22] - Urelumab demonstrated significant hepatotoxicity at doses ≥1.0 mg/kg, leading to its discontinuation [21][22] Second-Generation 4-1BB Agonists - Second-generation 4-1BB agonists are primarily dual-specific antibodies targeting various pathways, with a focus on balancing efficacy and safety [24][26] - LBL-024, a promising candidate, has shown unprecedented efficacy and is expected to submit a BLA by Q3 2026 [4][6] Recent Industry Events - Merck's acquisition of Cidara for $9.2 billion and Pfizer's acquisition of Metsera highlight ongoing consolidation in the biopharmaceutical industry [6] - The report notes that the innovative drug sector is under pressure but is expected to rebound with a focus on companies with strong revenue capabilities [6] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on companies with differentiated innovation pipelines and strong revenue capabilities, including specific biopharma and pharma leaders [6] - Suggested companies for investment include Innovent Biologics, BeiGene, and I-MAB, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with lithium salt plants actively mining [2] - The short-term outlook for lithium shows a continued increase in both supply and demand, while long-term projections indicate that energy storage will become a major growth driver for lithium [2] - In the precious metals sector, the report notes a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, while global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold [11] - For industrial metals, the report indicates that copper prices have a solid support at the bottom, with expectations of price increases driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [12][13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which limits the price increase of gold. However, long-term value remains intact due to geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [11] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to a tightening supply and strong demand from the new energy sector. The report notes a recent accident in a Congolese copper mine that has raised supply concerns [12][13] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a potential for increases in the long term due to supply constraints and strong demand [16] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with strong production from lithium salt plants. The report anticipates a continued high demand for lithium, particularly in energy storage applications [2][17] - Key companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [18] Other Minor Metals - The report notes a stable market for antimony, with a significant increase in exports in October. The outlook for antimony prices remains stable [19][21] - Other minor metals such as tungsten and molybdenum are also highlighted, with specific companies recommended for investment [21]

- **Pring Cycle and its construction** - **Model Name**: Pring Cycle - **Construction Idea**: The Pring Cycle divides the economy and market into six stages based on the rotation performance of stocks, bonds, and commodities, helping investors adapt to different economic environments [13][16][17] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Stage Division**: - Stage 1: Recovery Early Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks slightly rise, commodities remain flat - Stage 2: Recovery Acceleration - Stocks lead, bonds weaken - Stage 3: Expansion Peak - Commodities start rising, stock growth slows, bonds decline - Stage 4: Overheat Phase - Commodities perform best, stocks decline, bonds remain flat or slightly drop - Stage 5: Growth Slowdown - Bonds improve, stocks and commodities weaken - Stage 6: Recession Phase - Bonds perform best, stocks rebound slightly, commodities perform worst [16][17][18] 2. Historical validation of Pring Cycle stages and their corresponding market performances [18] - **Evaluation**: Pring Cycle provides forward-looking insights by extracting "implied economic expectations" from market variables like prices, interest rates, and commodities, reflecting the broad economic direction [47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS) and its construction** - **Factor Name**: Trend Score (TS) - **Construction Idea**: TS is built using monthly macroeconomic data to reflect real economic activities, corporate profits, and liquidity trends, offering a stable and cross-industry consistent confirmation signal [47] - **Construction Process**: 1. **Factor Selection**: Core macro factors include PMI New Orders, PPI YoY/MoM, M1 YoY, and M2 YoY, representing demand, profitability, and liquidity [26][29][30] 2. **Standardization**: Apply 12-month rolling Z-score to each factor for comparability [33] 3. **Weighted Aggregation**: Combine Z-scores using normalized weights to derive monthly raw TS [33] 4. **EWMA Smoothing**: Apply EWMA (α=0.5) to stabilize TS and clarify trend segments [33] 5. **Anti-Jump Rule**: Use 60-period rolling distribution with dual thresholds (35/65 outer, 45/55 inner) to classify TS into "Cautious/Neutral/Positive" states, ensuring stable macro state transitions [34] 6. **Practical Application**: Extend monthly TS to daily frequency with a 15-day lag for real-time use [33] - **Evaluation**: TS complements Pring Cycle by providing confirmation signals from the fundamental side, enhancing reliability and cross-industry consistency [47] - **Backtesting Results for Models and Factors** - **Pring Cycle**: Historical validation shows that recovery and positive macro signals yield the strongest positive returns across industries, with recovery > overheat > recession in certainty [45][47] - **Macro Trend Signal (TS)**: Positive TS signals outperform cautious and neutral states, with clear positive effects on market returns [45][47] - **Combined Strategy**: The Pring Cycle and TS framework consistently outperform benchmarks like CSI 300 in most years, with stable long-term excess returns and controlled drawdowns [56][59] - **Performance Metrics for Macro States** - **CSI 300**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.24%, Recession -0.08%, Overheat 0.50% - Neutral: Recovery 0.23%, Recession -2.50%, Overheat 6.21% - Positive: Recovery 2.74%, Recession 0.34%, Overheat 1.29% [41] - **CSI 2000**: - Cautious: Recovery 4.42%, Recession -1.06%, Overheat -0.16% - Neutral: Recovery 2.85%, Recession -0.54%, Overheat -3.76% - Positive: Recovery 3.14%, Recession 0.37%, Overheat 1.77% [42] - **Growth Enterprise Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 3.69%, Recession -0.67%, Overheat -2.90% - Neutral: Recovery -0.97%, Recession -1.64%, Overheat 1.62% - Positive: Recovery 4.31%, Recession 2.95%, Overheat 0.51% [43] - **Low Volatility Dividend Index**: - Cautious: Recovery 2.13%, Recession 0.76%, Overheat 0.60% - Neutral: Recovery -0.69%, Recession -3.12%, Overheat 8.05% - Positive: Recovery 1.51%, Recession 1.42%, Overheat 1.86% [44] - **Sector Performance under Macro States** - **Positive-Recovery**: Sectors like New Energy, Basic Chemicals, Consumer Services, and Growth Enterprise Index show strong returns [60][62] - **Positive-Overheat**: Sectors like Electronics, Basic Chemicals, Electric Equipment, and Nonferrous Metals exhibit sustained performance, shifting towards cyclical sectors [63][64] - **Risk-Adjusted Returns**: Manufacturing chains (e.g., Chemicals, Nonferrous Metals) maintain mid-to-high rankings across all macro states, while defensive sectors (e.g., Food & Beverage, Banks) dominate during downturns [64][66] - **Strategy Effectiveness** - The combined Pring Cycle and TS framework systematically captures trends and filters noise, demonstrating long-term executability and adaptability to macroeconomic changes [56][59]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [15] Core Insights - The domestic humanoid robot industry is entering a phase of large-scale development, with eight companies, including UBTECH and ZhiYuan Robotics, securing orders exceeding 100 million yuan or over 1,000 units, totaling 2.4 billion yuan in orders [3] - The price threshold for humanoid robots is continuously decreasing, driven by domestic manufacturers' self-research on core components and increased localization rates, leading to significant cost reductions [4] - The humanoid robot market in China is expected to reach nearly 38 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 61% from 2024 to 2030, as sales are projected to grow from approximately 4,000 units to 271,200 units [5] Summary by Sections Orders and Market Demand - Major companies are experiencing an explosion in orders, with applications across various scenarios such as industrial, cultural tourism, and logistics, and some firms have already set delivery timelines for 2026 [3] Cost Reduction and Supply Chain Maturity - The price of humanoid robots has significantly decreased, with models like Yushu Technology's R1 priced at 39,900 yuan and others dropping to as low as 9,998 yuan, indicating a maturing supply chain in China [4] Future Market Potential - The demand for humanoid robots in industrial and commercial settings is projected to exceed 3.8 million units by 2030, with the market size potentially reaching over 100 billion yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI) decline, with October's PPI year-on-year decline narrowing to 2.1%. Coal prices are expected to stabilize, and the lowest coal price in 2025 may represent a policy bottom. The report anticipates further supply-side policies to be introduced [5][6] - The coal industry is viewed as being in a golden era due to energy transformation, with limited supply elasticity and increasing extraction difficulties. The report suggests that coal's status as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and coal prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating upward trend [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Coal Market Overview - As of November 21, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal closing price is 834 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in prices from Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Shanxi [3][29] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.508 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 13,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [3][37] - The inventory index for thermal coal is 188.8, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.6 [3][37] 2. Coking Coal - As of November 21, 2025, the price of coking coal at the Jing Tang Port is 1780 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80 CNY/ton [4][66] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 758,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.7% [4][66] - The coking coal inventory has increased by 20.9 million tons year-on-year, a decrease of 43.2% [4][66] 3. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily consumption of the six major power plants has slightly increased to 805,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 1% [37][39] - The operating rates for methanol and urea are at 88.8% and 83.9%, respectively, indicating a high level of activity compared to historical levels [3][39] - The report highlights that coal supply is expected to remain tight due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [5][6] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from the coal price cycle are also recommended, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of coal-electricity integration models to mitigate cyclical fluctuations, recommending companies like Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Insights - The company, Yuanbao, is a leading technology-driven online insurance distribution and service platform in China, focusing on personal life and health insurance products. It leverages big data and AI technology to provide a comprehensive insurance service cycle, including personalized recommendations, convenient underwriting, policy management, intelligent claims, and after-sales support [3][14]. - Yuanbao has achieved rapid growth and profitability within three years of establishment, establishing a strong foundation for continued leadership in the online insurance market [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yuanbao is recognized as a pioneer in internet insurance technology in China, holding national insurance brokerage and agency licenses. The company aims to make insurance more accessible through its technology-driven platform [14]. - The actual controller of the company is Rui Fang, who has extensive experience in financial technology and e-commerce [16]. - The main business model involves online distribution and full-cycle service of personal life and health insurance products, with a focus on short-term insurance [22]. Company Highlights - The company has built a robust competitive moat through its proprietary "Full Consumer Service Cycle Engine," which integrates media, users, and products to optimize the insurance service process [23][33]. - Yuanbao is the largest independent online insurance distributor in China, with significant market share and a strong growth trajectory [39]. - The online insurance distribution market in China has substantial growth potential, with online insurance sales penetration expected to rise significantly by 2028 [40]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 47.23 billion, 65.64 billion, and 87.96 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 13.42 billion, 20.94 billion, and 31.30 billion RMB [4][55]. - The company is expected to maintain a high growth rate, with revenue growth rates of 42%, 37%, and 32% for 2025-2027 [49]. - The report uses a relative valuation method, indicating that the company's PE ratio for 2025 is significantly lower than the average of comparable companies, suggesting a potential undervaluation [4][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the chemical sector [5]. Core Insights - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is expected to create a leading global paint company with annual revenues of $17 billion (approximately 120.9 billion RMB) [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce continues to impose anti-dumping duties on imported propanol from the U.S., with rates ranging from 254.4% to 267.4% [3]. - The domestic tire industry shows strong competitiveness, with scarce growth targets worth attention, including Sailun Tire, Senqilin, General Shares, and Linglong Tire [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to gradually recover, benefiting upstream material companies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Dongcai Technology and Stik [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is highlighted for its resilience due to supply constraints and increasing demand from the new energy sector, with suggested companies including Yuntianhua and Chuanheng Shares [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the chemical industry benefiting from economic recovery and demand resurgence, recommending companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.9%, the ChiNext Index by 6.15%, and the CSI 300 by 3.77%, while the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropped by 8.24% [14]. - The top five performing sub-industries in the chemical sector were rubber additives (1.75%), potassium fertilizer (-1.21%), tires (-2.84%), modified plastics (-4.32%), and membrane materials (-5.19%) [17]. Major Industry Dynamics - The merger between AkzoNobel and Sherwin-Williams is set to create a company with a business scope covering various paint solutions and an expected annual revenue of $17 billion [3]. - The Ministry of Commerce's anti-dumping measures on U.S. propanol will continue, affecting pricing and supply dynamics in the market [3]. Investment Themes - The tire sector is highlighted for its competitive domestic enterprises, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - The consumer electronics sector is expected to recover, with upstream material companies poised to benefit [4]. - The phosphorous chemical sector is noted for its tightening supply-demand balance, with several companies recommended for attention [4]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the chemical industry that are likely to benefit from economic recovery and demand resurgence [4].

行 华福证券 行 业 定 期 报 告 海南离岛免税政策方面，本周财政部等国家部委研究制定并出台 《公告》，为激发海南消费市场潜能注入新动力、拓展新空间，核心 包括品类拓展等利好政策，关注四季度海南封关主线下中国中免等海 南免税运营商。旅游标的方面，2025 年前三季度，国内居民出游人次 49.98 亿，比上年同期增加 7.61 亿，同比增长 18.0%，旅游出行 beta 不断向好，建议关注四季度冰雪游旺季公司长白山、大连圣亚，以及 拥有收并购预期的头部公司祥源文旅、西域旅游等。 黄金珠宝：税收新政落地，长期有望推动行业合规发展。 黄金税收新政发布后，针对黄金首饰产品，从上海金交所采购标 准黄金的增值税进项税抵扣额从 13%下降至 6%，企业税负成本增加， 预计成本压力将传导至终端，导致首饰产品价格提升。我们估计价格 变动短期将影响终端克重产品销售，长期看民众对高金价逐步接受后 终端消费有望回补，且水贝等渠道销售有望向合规金店转移。建议关 注一口价产品占比高的老铺黄金，公司产品价格相对稳定，金价持续 上行受益；其他建议关注潮宏基、菜百股份。 餐饮：关注具备成长动能的细分赛道龙头。 餐饮板块分化延续，看好具备成 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the home hardware industry, focusing on design, brand building, and channel development, with a strong emphasis on product design and marketing expertise from its founder [2][20]. - The company has shown robust growth, with projected revenues of 2.857 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.6%, and a net profit of 531 million yuan, up 59.7% year-on-year [2][4]. - The home hardware industry is characterized by a fragmented market structure, with the company holding the top market share in the storage hardware segment [3][92]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2004, the company specializes in home hardware, including storage hardware, basic hardware, kitchen and bathroom hardware, and outdoor furniture [20]. - The company emphasizes product design, brand awareness, and a balanced channel structure, with no reliance on a single major customer [2][20]. Industry Landscape - The home hardware industry in China exceeds 200 billion yuan, with exports nearing 100 billion yuan, indicating a significant domestic market [3][92]. - The company ranks first in market share for storage hardware, with a strong online sales presence [3][92]. Growth Drivers - Revenue growth is driven by product category expansion, channel development, and international market exploration [4]. - The company’s revenue composition for 2024 is projected to be 30% from storage hardware, 43% from basic hardware, 13% from kitchen and bathroom hardware, 9% from outdoor furniture, and 5% from other products [4][21]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 712 million yuan, 896 million yuan, and 1.094 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 34%, 26%, and 22% [4][6]. - The report suggests that the company’s balanced multi-category and multi-channel strategy, along with its strong profitability, justifies the "Buy" rating [4].

行 华福证券 建筑材料 2025 年 11 月 20 日 业 研 究 建筑材料 开竣工数据进一步走弱，期待更强政策发力 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 根据国家统计局数据，1-10 月全国房地产开发投资 7.4 万亿元，同比 -14.7%，较前值-0.8pct；房屋新开工 4.9 亿方，同比-19.8%，较前值-0.9pct； 房屋竣工 3.5 亿方，同比-16.9%，较前值-1.6pct；1-10 月新建商品房销售面 积 7.2 亿方，同比-6.8%，较前值-1.3pct；销售金额 6.9 万亿元，同比-9.6%， 较前值-1.7pct；10 月末全国商品房待售面积 75606 万平方米，连续八个月 减少；住建部部署全国老城区老街区专项调查，2026 年 2 月前各地须完成 地市级成果审核，6 月形成全国总结报告；山东省要求 2025-2026 年度水泥 行业实施采暖季错峰生产，非采暖季鼓励企业自主开展错峰生产；深圳市 10 月二手房录得量达 5,547 套，环比下跌 4.5%，同比下跌 32.9%；重庆市 印发《进一步加强消费领域限制性举措持续扩大消费若干措施》，明确放 宽全款购房的公积金提取条件；1 ...