行 轨交设备Ⅱ 2025 年 11 月 30 日 业 研 究 轨交设备Ⅱ 班列驰骋连亚欧，丝路畅通促共赢 投资要点： 累计开行破 12 万列，网络服务全域覆盖 行 业 定 期 报 告 2025 年 11 月 28 日，X8086 次中欧班列从成都国际铁路港发车， 标志着中欧班列历年累计开行突破 12 万列，发送货值超 4900 亿美元。 目前中国境内 128 个城市已开通班列，通达欧洲 26 国 232 个城市及 11 个亚洲国家超 100 个城市，通过西中东三条境内通道、六大出入境口 岸及境外北中南三线格局，构建起覆盖亚欧全境的运输网络，口岸单 日交接车能力达 184 列。 提质增效强赋能，共筑发展新动能 中欧班列通过优化运输组织、升级技术装备、完善服务体系实现 高质量发展，运输能力提升 10%，通关时间压缩至 30 分钟内，综合重 箱率稳定在 100%，货物品类拓展至 5 万多种，高附加值货物成为出口 主力。其不仅降低了运输成本，更带动沿线国家经贸往来、产业升级 和就业增长，推动中欧产业链深度对接，在保障国际供应链稳定、促 进亚欧繁荣发展中发挥重要作用，成为高质量共建"一带一路"的重 要载体。 营业里程持 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [10][17] Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) held a meeting on November 28, focusing on the "anti-involution" in the power and energy storage battery industry, emphasizing the need to enhance the lithium battery sector [4][7] - High-level attendance at the meeting indicates strong potential for subsequent actions and decisions [5][6] - The meeting addressed critical issues such as production operations, technology research and development, market competition, and intellectual property protection, highlighting the pain points in the industry [7] - MIIT plans to introduce targeted policies to mitigate irrational competition and promote a healthier and more sustainable industry ecosystem [8] Summary by Sections Industry Events - The MIIT meeting included representatives from major companies in the lithium battery sector, indicating a significant focus on addressing industry challenges [4][6] - The discussion centered on the overcapacity issues caused by blind expansion in the lithium battery materials industry over the past two years [7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that most sub-sectors of lithium battery materials are expected to achieve orderly expansion without significant overcapacity in the coming years [8] - Certain sub-sectors with low profitability and long payback periods may see price increases [8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in global energy storage, power, and consumer batteries such as CATL, EVE Energy, and others [8] - Specific companies to watch for price increases include those in lithium iron phosphate, copper and aluminum foil, separators, and electrolytes [8]

行 业 煤炭 2025 年 11 月 30 日 研 究 行 业 专 题 报 告 煤炭 红利资产比较：煤炭与高速公路的"攻"与"守" 投资要点： 股债息差值得关注，高股息资产价值重估 2025 年以来银行理财产品预期年收益率在 1.8%-3.2%，中国 10 年期国债收益率维持 1.6%-1.9%低位区间运行，低利率市场环境下， 高股息资产因其稳定的现金流回报和防御特性受到广泛青睐。 高股息行业存在差异，本文将选取股息率最高的周期型"煤炭行 业"和稳健板块典型代表"高速公路行业"进行对比，判断两种不同 行业特点的高股息资产核心关注点，并提供投资建议。 煤炭 vs 高速公路—超额收益及股价影响因素 复盘超额收益率和股价走势，煤炭作为周期行业，虽然会受到市 场情绪的影响，但超额收益与煤价深度绑定，因此建议在煤炭板块上 行且股债利差为正时期配置煤炭红利资产。 高速公路作为稳健行业，其超额收益与股债利差、市场情绪变化 更为敏感，因此建议在市场下行、国债收益率下行时期配置高速公路 红利资产。 煤炭 vs 高速公路—板块高股息的驱动因素 煤炭公司高分红根基来源于供给限制和长协政策出台带来的现金 流改善和煤价周期平滑，因此头 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for coal investments, emphasizing the potential for price stabilization and upward movement in the coal market [5][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Producer Price Index (PPI) is closely linked to coal prices, with expectations for coal prices to stabilize and potentially rise due to policy changes aimed at reducing "involution" competition [5]. - The coal industry is positioned within an energy transformation era, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5]. - Despite macroeconomic weaknesses affecting demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, maintaining a fluctuating upward trend [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of November 28, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 816 CNY/ton, down 18 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 4 CNY/ton [3][30]. - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.5 million tons, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.8 thousand tons week-on-week and a 6.8% year-on-year decline [3][37]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a small decline in daily coal consumption at major power plants, with inventories showing a slight increase, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [39]. - Methanol and urea operating rates are reported at 89.1% and 83.7%, respectively, indicating robust industrial activity [3][44]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities based on resource endowment, operational stability, and potential for dividend increases, recommending companies such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6]. - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6]. Price Trends - The report indicates that the long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 684 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.0 CNY/ton month-on-month but a decrease of 15.0 CNY/ton year-on-year [26]. - The report also notes fluctuations in international coal prices, with Newcastle coal prices rising to 113.8 USD/ton, a week-on-week increase of 4.7 USD/ton [35].

行 家用电器 2025 年 11 月 29 日 业 研 究 家用电器 六部委印发增强消费品供需适配文件，多领域有 望实现供给结构升级——25W47 周观点 投资要点： 六部委印发增强消费品供需适配文件，多领域有望实现供给结构升级 行 业 定 期 报 告 六部委印发增强消费品供需适配文件，多领域有望实现供给结构 升级。本周，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、商务部、文化和旅 游部、中国人民银行和市场监管总局六部门印发《关于增强消费品供 需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》的通知。总体要求到 2027 年， 消费品供给结构明显优化，形成 3 个万亿级消费领域和 10 个千亿级 消费热点。 加快新技术新模式创新：在技术和模式创新方面，文件重点规划 了新的赛道和新的模式，包括新能源汽车，智能家电家居，柔性生产 定制化服务等，同时文件重点强调了人工智能在消费品全行业的重要 作用，鼓励了消费供给在人工智能方面的升级。 扩大特色和新型产品供给：在特色产品方面，文件主要提到了跟 绿色低碳，农村消费，冰雪户外运动，健康食品，传统文化类产品以 及新消费领域的供给升级。 精准匹配不同人群需求：在针对特任人群的需求层面，文件也进 一步细 ...

Group 1 - The core message from the November Politburo meeting emphasizes the importance of strengthening the Party's leadership and ensuring the execution of national development strategies to facilitate high-quality development and clear obstacles for the second centenary goal [2][19] - The meeting indicates that the policy environment will continue to be purified, focusing on high-quality development and identifying potential risks and opportunities in the capital market [2][19] - The integration of inspection rectification with the "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that the top-level design and local practices will be based on a thorough understanding of current development experiences and corrections of existing deviations [8][10] Group 2 - The meeting highlights that inspection rectification will be a key driver for high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing policy execution and reducing discrepancies in local implementation of central decisions [8][9] - The emphasis on a correct performance view and the implementation of new development concepts will guide local governments in aligning with national strategies, promoting sustainable and quality growth [10][11] - The meeting outlines the need for a robust cadre team and governance structure to effectively address complex challenges and enhance decision-making and execution capabilities [16][18]

华福证券 策略点评 2025 年 11 月 29 日 巡视利剑护航"十五五" 事件： 中共中央政治局 11 月 28 日召开会议，审议《关于二十届中央巡视省（自治区、 直辖市）情况的综合报告》。 主要政策解读： （1）彰显巡视利剑作用。从巡视全覆盖的成果来看，中央对省级单位的监督 已形成常态化机制。会议既肯定了各省区市工作的新进展，也直言不讳指出 存在问题，必须从政治上高度重视，这种"以巡促察、以改提质、以治固 本"的系统化治理逻辑，不仅使巡视成为全面从严治党的利剑，更成为十五 五规划精准施策的前置研判机制。 （2）强调动真碰硬整改。"动真碰硬"传递出整改工作绝不能走过场、搞形 式的强烈信号。会议将巡视整改与学习贯彻党的二十届四中全会精神、谋划 "十五五"规划相结合，将其定位为全面从严治党、净化政治生态、加强领 导班子建设的重要抓手，极大地提升了巡视整改的定位和意义，表明中央正 通过巡视利器，推动政治监督具体化、精准化、常态化，为高质量发展清障 护航，十五五规划的高质量编制，正以巡视整改的实效为底色。 （3）靶向施策强整改。会议重申树立正确政绩观、完善干部考核机制，正是 要破解部分地区在经济发展中可能存在的短 ...

Group 1: Economic Focus and Policy Direction - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the importance of unifying thoughts and focusing on policy priorities to promote high-quality development and strengthen technology innovation leadership in the market[2] - The fifth and sixth rounds of inspections will primarily focus on local government work, addressing common issues identified in previous inspections, such as implementing central decisions and enhancing talent and organizational development[12] - The integration of inspection rectification with economic work is crucial for ensuring effective implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and promoting high-quality development[13] Group 2: Local Development Strategies - Local governments are encouraged to adopt tailored development strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach, aligning with the central government's strategic positioning for each region[17] - Emphasis on developing characteristic and leading industries based on local resources is expected to be a core principle for the "14th Five-Year Plan" development[17] - The need for local governments to enhance their understanding of technological innovation and improve political awareness is highlighted as essential for optimizing industrial structures and achieving breakthroughs in high-tech research[17] Group 3: Risk Management and Economic Growth - The meeting underscored the importance of risk prevention and the need to enhance the social governance system to mitigate various risks, particularly in the real estate sector[18] - There is a shift towards a new development model in the real estate market, with plans to accelerate the use of special bond funds for acquiring existing properties and addressing idle land issues[18] - The focus on maintaining systemic financial risk prevention and improving financial regulatory effectiveness remains a top priority[18] Group 4: Encouraging Local Leadership - The meeting called for a correct personnel orientation to motivate local officials to take responsibility and actively engage in economic work, especially in major economic provinces[22] - Fujian, as one of the top ten economic provinces, is expected to leverage the meeting's guidance to unlock greater economic growth potential and technological innovation[22]

- The report discusses the macroeconomic recovery in China, highlighting the transition from "weak recovery" to "marginal improvement" as a key phase for economic activity and liquidity structure, which lays the foundation for subsequent profitability recovery and market style shifts towards dividends and low valuation assets [11][16][17] - A macro scoring model is referenced, indicating that the macroeconomic environment has been in a neutral to slightly pessimistic range in 2025, with the latest score (September 2025) being 7, reflecting a neutral to slightly optimistic outlook [13][14] - Dividend strategies (high dividend yield strategies) are emphasized as a classic value investment method, with their core logic analyzed from three dimensions: investor behavior, corporate operating characteristics, and market valuation systems. The dividend yield is identified as the core metric for evaluating dividend strategies [21][23] - The report highlights the strategic allocation value of dividend assets, emphasizing their long-term stable return characteristics and risk diversification functions, making them suitable as a "ballast" in investment portfolios, especially in a low-interest-rate environment [21][23][25] - The report introduces the "stability value + growth premium" logic for the power and power grid sectors, emphasizing their stable cash flow, regulatory framework ("permitted cost + reasonable return"), and policy support for energy transition and power security [26] - The report provides valuation metrics for high dividend yield-related ETF products tracking indices as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the National New Hong Kong Stock Connect Central Enterprise Dividend Index, Smart High Dividend Index, CSI Dividend Index, and CSI All Power Index are 8.88, 8.73, 8.29, and 17.60, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 0.85, 1.11, 0.80, and 1.76 [27][30] - The cyclical sector investment direction is analyzed, with key drivers identified as domestic demand policies and global demand recovery. Non-bank financials and consumer sectors benefit from dual drivers, while financial real estate and infrastructure are supported by domestic policies, and materials benefit from global restocking [40][42][47] - Valuation metrics for cyclical-related ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank, Financial Real Estate, 800 Consumer, All Materials, and Infrastructure Engineering indices are 9.44, 9.10, 19.20, 26.90, and 8.51, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.13, 0.86, 4.36, 2.10, and 0.72 [51][55] - The report emphasizes the role of broad-based assets like the SSE 50 ETF and CSI 300 ETF as core holdings in portfolios, supported by policy efforts to stabilize the market and attract long-term funds, as well as their low historical valuations and high safety margins [64][65][66] - Valuation metrics for broad-based ETF products tracking indices are provided as of October 20, 2025. For example, the PE ratios for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices are 11.99 and 14.22, respectively, with corresponding PB ratios of 1.30 and 1.48. Both indices are near the 68th percentile of their five-year PB range [69][70][71]

策 略 定 期 报 告 2、根据科睿唯安《风起云涌：中国生物医药创新 2.0 时代》报告， 中国生物医药产业已进入以源头创新和全球竞争力为核心的 2.0 阶段。 2024 年中国跃居全球第二大新药首发市场，66%全球新活性化合物已 在中国上市，凸显深度全球接轨。截至 8 月份，2025 年对外许可交易 额达 500 亿美元，热点从 ADC 转向双抗/小分子等方向，创新价值获 国际认可。政策端形成从30天临床快审到商保目录的端到端支持体系。 企业层面，在研管线、专利及临床试验数量均实现同比超 100%增长， 展现强劲创新动能。面对新周期，产业正通过聚焦管线结构、强化数 据整合与先进技术应用，推动研发效率提升与成本优化，持续塑造"中 国智造"全球影响力。 团队成员 华福证券 2025 年 11 月 25 日 策 略 研 究 中国生物医药创新 2.0：全球竞合、技术驱动与战 略重塑（2025.11.17—2025.11.21） 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业均为负收益，表现不佳。 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告 ...