Group 1: Macro and Industry Policy Tracking - The domestic industry policy shows a trend of multi-field efforts, balancing development promotion and strict regulation, focusing on stabilizing growth in the industrial sector and optimizing supply [2][13] - The industrial sector aims to enhance international competitiveness and support light industry in contributing to economic stability [13][14] - The artificial intelligence and transportation sectors emphasize technological innovation and application, promoting smart upgrades in convenience living circles and transportation data set construction [13][15] Group 2: Automotive and Financial Sector Developments - The automotive aftermarket is undergoing reforms to stimulate consumption, with the Ministry of Commerce supporting cities to innovate and deepen reforms [16] - Financial regulatory measures are being strengthened to ensure the stability of banking institutions and protect consumer rights [20] Group 3: Consumer and Energy Sector Initiatives - The "Hundred Cities and Hundred Districts" cultural and tourism consumption plan aims to boost consumer spending through various incentives, including over 330 million yuan in subsidies [21] - The energy sector is focused on achieving carbon neutrality goals, with significant advancements in renewable energy capacity ahead of the 2030 targets [22] Group 4: Asset Price and Market Performance - A-share market performance varied, with the top five sectors showing gains, including electrical equipment (+3.65%) and automotive parts (+3.28%) [25] - The popular concepts this week included significant gains in sectors like photolithography machines (+8.96%) and semiconductor equipment (+6.36%) [28]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][75] Core Viewpoints - The real estate development investment in China from January to August reached 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9%, indicating a significant decline in the sector [3] - The new construction area of residential buildings decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, while the completion area fell by 17.0% [3] - The average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement nationwide is 344.5 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase of 0.9% week-on-week but a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year [4][14] - The report highlights that the supply-side reform in the building materials sector is expected to reach a turning point, with a recovery in housing purchase willingness due to declining interest rates and supportive policies [6][20] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will stabilize, driven by policies aimed at boosting housing consumption and improving purchasing power [3][6] Summary by Sections High-frequency Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average price of P.O 42.5 cement is 344.5 yuan/ton, with regional prices varying [4][14] - The glass (5.00mm) ex-factory price is 1165.7 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.0% [21][24] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.3%, while the building materials index rose by 0.43% [5][59] - Sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showed positive growth, while cement manufacturing and glass manufacturing experienced declines [5][59] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating to Hengxin Life [5][6] Core Views - Hengxin Life is a leading company in the paper and plastic food service products industry, demonstrating steady growth with a projected revenue of 1.59 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of 11.86% year-on-year, and a net profit of 220 million yuan, up 2.82% year-on-year [3][26] - The company has a robust competitive edge through a rich product line, strong customer relationships, and production scale advantages [4][39] - Global expansion is accelerating, with the establishment of a subsidiary in Thailand to mitigate trade risks, and the PHA technology is expected to become a new growth engine [4][50] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Hengxin Life specializes in the R&D, production, and sales of paper and plastic food service products, utilizing raw materials such as original paper, PLA particles, and traditional plastic particles [3][12] - The company has developed proprietary technologies in PLA modification, coating, and molding, becoming a supplier for many well-known domestic and international brands [3][12] Competitive Advantages - The company has three core competitive advantages: 1. **Industry Chain and Product Line Advantage**: Full-process production capabilities allow for a diverse product line tailored to customer needs [4][39] 2. **Brand and Customer Advantage**: Stable relationships with major clients, with the top five customers accounting for 41.27% of sales in 2024 [4][39] 3. **Production Scale Advantage**: Multiple advanced production lines enable an annual capacity of 9 billion units, supporting large-scale customization and rapid delivery [4][39] Global Expansion and Technology - The establishment of a subsidiary in Thailand in February 2024 aims to counter trade friction risks, with existing U.S. orders gradually shifting to the Thai factory [4][50] - The breakthrough in PHA technology opens up long-term growth potential, as PHA offers superior degradation and application properties compared to other biodegradable materials [4][50][53] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.88 billion, 2.13 billion, and 2.31 billion yuan, with net profits of 246 million, 280 million, and 317 million yuan respectively [5][58] - The company is positioned to benefit from the global "plastic ban" trend, enhancing its market penetration and serving international clients effectively [5][63]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%, with an expectation of an additional 50 basis points reduction by the end of the year, indicating a more dovish stance compared to previous projections [1][7] - Fed Chairman Powell characterized the rate cut as a "risk management" decision, highlighting concerns about a weakening labor market and rising risks to employment [1][7] - The market had largely priced in the 25 basis point cut prior to the announcement, leading to a mixed reaction in the dollar index and U.S. stock markets post-announcement [1][7] Group 2 - U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6%, up from a previous value of 0.5%, indicating a slight improvement in consumer spending [2][8] - Initial jobless claims decreased to 231,000 from 264,000, while continuing claims fell to 1.92 million from 1.93 million, suggesting resilience in the labor market [2][8] - The economic backdrop is characterized by a "stagflation-like" environment, with inflation concerns persisting despite the Fed's actions [1][7] Group 3 - Major global asset classes showed mixed performance, with the Nasdaq Composite Index rising by 2.21%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2][28] - In the commodities market, CBOT corn saw the largest increase at 6.46%, while LME three-month lead experienced the largest decline at 0.72% [2][47] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 8 basis points to 4.14%, reflecting a divergence in global long-term interest rates [2][48]

策 华福证券 2025 年 09 月 21 日 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 高波策略承压，看好顺周期红利——产业经济周 观点 投资要点： 近期观点 诚信专业发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 告 1、 美国降息落地，中国或将迎来政策宽松，价格复苏，指数加 速，市场结构调整的时间窗口。 团队成员 分析师： 李浩(S0210524050003) lh30530@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 李刘魁(S0210524050006) llk30550@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、港股开始追赶？——2025.09.14 2、市场状态高频数据库——9 月第 2 周—— 2025.09.14 3、TMT 多主题出现形态——2025.09.14 风险提示 全球制造业复苏受阻；中美关系改善不及预期；美国地产市场不 健康 研 究 报 告 证 券 华福证券 2、 短期高波动率策略承压，顺周期红利策略相对占优。 3、 看好保险，有色，能源，低 PB，恒生科技，军贸。 4、 商品白银和原油弹性大。 | 19月议息会议:一场"鹰派"的修正 | | --- | | 2 港股复盘: 恒生科技领涨 . | | ３Ａ 股市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights the revaluation of leading companies in the new energy sector, suggesting a balanced allocation across various sub-sectors of new energy [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued a "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Automotive Industry," targeting 15.5 million new energy vehicle sales by 2025, with a 20% year-on-year growth [11][12] - CATL signed a prepayment agreement with Fulin Precision to secure iron lithium capacity, reflecting strong demand and strategic partnerships in the lithium battery sector [12][13] 2. New Energy Power Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The Ministry of Finance allocated 46.183 billion yuan in renewable energy subsidies, supporting the valuation recovery of the green electricity sector, with solar power receiving 21.589 billion yuan [20][21] - The report emphasizes the advantages of solar installations and the potential for valuation recovery in both solar and wind sectors, recommending attention to leading companies with stable operations [20][21] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - Significant progress is being made on the 3GW offshore wind project in Qingdao and the 1GW project in Dandong, with the Netherlands reinstating offshore wind subsidies, which may reactivate previously stalled projects [36][38] 3. Energy Storage Sector - In August, domestic energy storage installations increased by 2.90GW/7.97GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 30%/43%, with independent storage installations accounting for over half [46][47] - Major energy groups dominate new installations, with a notable shift towards long-duration storage technologies and non-lithium technology developments [48][49][52] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The construction of the Zangyue DC project has commenced, expected to be operational by 2029, which will significantly enhance power transmission capabilities [61] - The first industry standard for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) has been pre-released, promoting standardized development in the sector [62] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The PMI for manufacturing showed slight improvement, indicating a recovery in demand, with significant advancements in robotics showcased at the recent industrial expo [68][69] - The collaboration between Weiyi Intelligent Manufacturing and Jebot highlights the ongoing innovation in industrial robotics, aiming to enhance flexible production capabilities [69][70] 6. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced ten hydrogen energy pilot projects, and Wuhan's Economic and Information Bureau released financial subsidy policies for the hydrogen industry [5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of low pig prices and policy adjustments, indicating that capacity reduction may gradually become evident in the swine breeding sector. The average price of live pigs was 12.69 CNY/kg as of September 19, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.66 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has declined, averaging 40.12% across 17 provinces, down 4.82 percentage points from August 31 [2][10][33]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattening bulls remained stable at 32.44 CNY/kg and 25.97 CNY/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 35% and 10%. The long-term outlook suggests tightening beef supply, with a potential price upturn expected in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - The poultry sector is experiencing weak performance, particularly in the white-feathered chicken market, where prices have decreased to 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may further restrict upstream production capacity [4][41]. - In the agricultural products segment, soybean meal prices have faced downward pressure due to fluctuating market expectations regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. As of September 19, soybean meal futures were priced at 3014 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][55]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - Continued supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with a current average of 12.69 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has dropped to 40.12% [2][10]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased slightly to 128.45 kg, indicating a strong outflow from larger farms [20][33]. - The price of piglets has reached a yearly low, averaging 259 CNY/head, down 11% week-on-week [27][33]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after recent price increases, with expectations of tightening supply leading to a potential price upturn in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - Current prices for calves and fattening bulls are stable, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [35]. Poultry Sector - The white-feathered chicken market is underperforming, with prices at 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza situation may further impact production capacity [4][41]. - Egg prices have fluctuated, recently peaking at 8 CNY/kg before settling at 7.92 CNY/kg [4][41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have been volatile, influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, with current prices at 3014 CNY/ton [4][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and trade policies affecting soybean imports [4][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector in Q4, with many companies currently at historical low valuations and attractive dividend yields, suggesting a timely opportunity for left-side positioning [3]. - The introduction of new HNB products by British American Tobacco (BAT) in European markets is expected to enhance market share, with a target of reaching 50 million consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and transitioning to a smoke-free enterprise by 2035 [3]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes that in August, the residential construction area decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, while the sales area of residential properties saw a 10% decline [8]. - Despite the pressure on the real estate sector, the report emphasizes the opportunity for investment in home furnishing companies due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [8]. - Key companies to watch include leading brands in soft furnishings and custom furniture, such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein [8]. Paper and Packaging - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4800 RMB/ton (down 18.75 RMB), while corrugated paper increased to 2791.25 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB) [8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong supply chain management and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [8]. Light Industry Consumption - In August, sales of sanitary napkins on e-commerce platforms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the Nais Princess brand showing a significant growth of 41% [10]. - The report anticipates a boost in sales for personal care brands as the e-commerce sales season approaches, highlighting companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Steady Medical [10]. Export Chain - The report notes that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to improved demand in the U.S. real estate sector, positively impacting export-oriented home furnishing companies [10]. - Companies to monitor in the export chain include Zhongxin Co., Jiangxin Home, and Zhejiang Natural [10]. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the launch of BAT's GLO HILO in several European markets, projecting a continued increase in market share for HNB products [10]. - It recommends focusing on companies that have established partnerships in the electronic cigarette and HNB product sectors, such as Smoore International [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the motorcycle industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry continues to experience high demand, with fuel motorcycle sales reaching 1.5635 million units in August, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%. The sales of large-displacement recreational motorcycles (over 250cc) grew by 23.60% to 84,500 units [3][14]. - Exports of motorcycles in August totaled 1.1242 million units, marking a 20.69% increase year-on-year, with export revenue reaching $759 million, up 31.24% [3][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in domestic demand supported by policy initiatives, particularly in the home appliance sector, with recommendations to focus on major appliance brands like Midea Group, Haier, and Gree Electric [4][39]. Summary by Sections Motorcycle Industry - The report notes that Changan Power's motorcycle sales reached 50,000 units in August, a 73% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 49% [14]. - Longxin General's motorcycle sales were 117,000 units, down 25% year-on-year, but large-displacement sales increased by 29% [23]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's total sales were 34,000 units, with exports surging by 85% year-on-year, indicating strong growth despite a slight decline in domestic demand [33]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.3%, with specific segments like black appliances and kitchen appliances showing positive trends [4][41]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in consumer demand for large appliances due to trade-in programs, suggesting a focus on brands like TCL and Hisense [4][39]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities, including: 1. Large appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, recommending brands like Midea and Haier [4][39]. 2. The pet industry as a resilient sector, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. highlighted [4][39]. 3. Electric two-wheelers expected to see improved domestic sales, with companies like Ninebot and Yadea recommended [4][39]. 4. The global expansion of Chinese brands in clean appliances and tools, with a focus on companies like Roborock and Kingclean [5][40].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][55] Core Insights - The low-altitude economy index increased by 0.06% this week, ranking 140 out of 338, outperforming the market as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [3][15] - The report indicates that the low-altitude sector is in a phase of waiting for catalysts to trigger a rebound, with significant potential for growth driven by infrastructure development and the application of drones in various fields [4][30] - The establishment of a leadership group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China for general aviation and low-altitude economy work is expected to lead to favorable industry policies [4][30] Summary by Sections Market Review and Weekly Outlook - The low-altitude economy index has shown resilience, outperforming other sectors despite recent market adjustments [4][29] - Key stocks in the A-share and Hong Kong markets saw significant gains, with West Region Tourism up by 17.58% and Baolong Technology up by 13.34% [3][18] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the launch of the first low-altitude economic internet platform in Hunan, indicating growing infrastructure and service availability [33] - Jiangsu Province's low-altitude economy is projected to reach nearly 30 billion RMB, with around 1,300 enterprises involved [36] Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus on infrastructure companies such as Suzhou Planning and Lais Information, and drone-related companies like Jifeng Technology and Henghe Precision [5][32] - Notable companies in the capacity sector include Wanfeng Aowei and Zhongshen Power, which are recommended for attention [5][32]