宏 观 研 究 降息暂缓，前紧后松 ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议解读 投资要点： 如期按兵不动。本次议息会议中，美联储暂停降息，将利率稳定在 3.5%-3.75%的目标范围内，符合预期。其中，有两位美联储理事投了反对 票，米兰（Stephen I. Miran）和沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）认为应该降息 25bp， 其他 10 位理事均支持停止降息，内部分歧不大。 宏 观 点 评 就业企稳，通胀偏高。本次声明中，就业方面，委员会删除了此前认 为就业面临的下行风险增加的表述；且认为失业率已出现一些企稳迹象。 通胀方面，委员会维持"通胀仍然偏高"的表述。鲍威尔在新闻发布会中 表示，劳动力市场供需同步降温，通胀超调的大部分来自关税，而非需求； 剔除商品关税影响后的核心 PCE 略高于 2%。我们认为， 12 月新增就业继 续减少，11 月职位空缺数、空缺率均创新低，指向劳动力供给过剩状况加 剧；高利率下住房通胀大趋势仍继续放缓，通胀有继续走低的驱动。 经济增长前景乐观。在经济增长方面，委员会上调对经济形势的判断， 修改为"经济活动以温和速度扩张"（expanding at a mod ...

宏 观 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资要点： 一、美联储降息"前紧后松" 我们认为，美国货币政策将呈现出"前紧后松"的特征。如果鲍威 尔在任期内仍然维持略显鹰派的政策态度，那么，下半年，我们预计 会迎来美联储的报复式降息 二、美元还会明显走弱 宏 观 专 在当前美元指数已经降破 97 的时候，美元在 26 年还会进一步的 走弱么？我们的答案依然是肯定的。基于对美联储货币政策"前紧后 松"的判断，我们预计，宽松的货币政策环境，叠加全球各国对于安全 需求的上升，美元或将继续走弱。 三、人民币汇率步入升值通道 题 我们认为，人民币汇率已经步入中期的升值通道。近来我们看到 人民币汇率正在向出口增速中枢复归，6.8 左右是较为匹配当前出口态 势的水平，如果考虑到人民币汇率在升贬值过程中往往容易出现超调， 那么，人民币汇率有进一步向上升破 6.8 的可能。 四、外需与内需会再平衡 人民币汇率在某种意义上，是横亘在内需和外需之间的"分配线"。 我们认为，人民币汇率步入中期升值通道的过程，其实也就是我国在 政策层面对外需和内需的再平衡。部分产品出口退税的削减乃至消除， 也能够证明内需在政策考量中的相对重要性逐 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨，同比+39%，环 比+20%，占比17%；12月从尼日利亚进口量8万吨，同比+59%，环比-13%， 占比10%；12月从南非进口量10.9万吨，同比+13%，环比增加约10.9万吨。 2025年锂辉石总进口量约772.67万吨，同比+10%。 碳酸锂：2025年12月碳酸锂进口量2.40万吨，环比+8.77%，同比 -14.43%；2025年碳酸锂总进口量24.30万吨，同比+3.41%，增速较2024 年下滑约44.6pct。2025年12月，碳酸锂出口量911.9吨，环比+20.11%， 同比+45.97%；2025年碳酸锂总出口量5289.6吨，同比+38.17%。 氢氧化锂：2025年12月氢氧化锂进口 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In December, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Industrial enterprise profits increased by 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing from a -13.1% decline in the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018[3] - The profit margin growth in December was a significant support for profit improvement, while the price drag slightly narrowed, contributing to the overall profit recovery[3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB since late November has led to a repatriation of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales difference reaching 25.9% of the trade surplus for the year, the second-highest since 2015[4] - Weak domestic demand continues to constrain revenue and profit improvements for enterprises, although the RMB appreciation may temporarily support profit growth by encouraging the repatriation of overseas profits[3][4] - In the long term, the RMB appreciation could help curb excessive reliance on price competition among export enterprises, promoting a shift towards quality development driven by technology upgrades and brand building[3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[4][5] - For the year 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[5] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points, with notable performance in smart consumer devices, semiconductors, and medical-related manufacturing[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in average prices for live pigs, with December showing an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered but a decrease in average selling prices. The average price for live pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 27.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The report anticipates that the ongoing capacity reduction policies will lead to a long-term increase in the price center for live pigs, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig farming companies [36] - The beef market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to a decrease in the number of breeding cows and the implementation of import restrictions on beef, which will tighten market supply [38] - In the poultry sector, the end of the vaccination period has led to a significant increase in the supply of chicken, resulting in a drop in chick prices. However, the egg market is experiencing a price increase due to pre-holiday stocking [46][51] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - December saw a total of 17 listed pig companies slaughter 17.9872 million pigs, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price for pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [12] - The report notes a slight recovery in the average weight of pigs slaughtered, which was 128.89 kg as of January 22 [25] 2. Cattle Industry - The price of calves has continued to rise, with the price for fattening bulls at 25.66 yuan/kg and calves at 33.09 yuan/kg as of January 23 [38] - The report indicates that the supply of beef is expected to tighten, leading to a favorable long-term price outlook [38] 3. Poultry Industry - The end of the vaccination period has resulted in a drop in chick prices to 2.2 yuan/chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 7.5 yuan/kg [46] - The egg market is seeing an increase in prices, with the average price for eggs at 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.64% week-on-week [46] 4. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The overall and weighted holdings of public funds in the pharmaceutical sector reached a new low since 2018 in Q4 2025, with the pharmaceutical heavy holdings accounting for 8.0% of all public funds, down 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][9] - The total scale of pharmaceutical funds in Q4 2025 was 394.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.2% from the previous quarter, with active pharmaceutical funds at 177.7 billion yuan, down 14% [20] - The proportion of passive pharmaceutical funds has increased significantly from 18% in Q1 2018 to 55% in Q4 2025, indicating a shift towards passive investment strategies in the sector [20] Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2025, the pharmaceutical sector saw a decrease in active fund holdings, with active pharmaceutical funds accounting for 33% of the total pharmaceutical heavy holdings, up 2 percentage points, while non-pharmaceutical active funds accounted for 26%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][13] - The top five holdings by market value in public funds included Heng Rui Medicine (31.7 billion), WuXi AppTec (29.6 billion), and Innovent Biologics (16.6 billion) [6] - The top three increases in active fund holdings were for Tigermed (1.7 billion), Yimeng Biologics (1.4 billion), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1.3 billion) [6] Sector-Specific Trends - The report highlights a shift in fund holdings towards innovative drugs and CXO services, while traditional Chinese medicine and high-value consumables are underweighted [6] - The report notes that the proportion of holdings in traditional Chinese medicine and biotech has increased, while holdings in BioPharma and CXO have decreased significantly [6][28] - The overall market value of holdings in the Bio-Tech sector reached 7.25% in Q4 2025, marking the highest level since Q1 2018, with active pharmaceutical funds holding 4.9% [28]

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 究 报 告 锂价：12月，电池级碳酸锂均价9.99万元/吨，环比+15%，同比+30%。 截至2026年1月26日，电池级碳酸锂价格为17.85万元/吨，较年初上涨50%， 较2025年最低点上涨192%。我们判断，当前仍处于下游淡季，锂价或将 维持高位震荡，节后下游进入产销旺季，锂价或重新开启新一轮上涨趋势。 投资建议：当前需求淡季不淡，带动去库，基本面向好驱动锂价持续 上涨至高位震荡，农历春节后下游有望进入旺季，积极备库的背景下供需 将维持紧张格局，锂价有望进一步上涨。建议关注大中、国城、盛新、雅 化、天华、永兴、藏格、天齐、赣锋等。 风险提示 下游需求低于预期；供给端超预期释放产能。 强于大市（维持评级） 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - From January 19 - 23, the market fluctuated upwards, with the All - A index rising 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. In terms of style, the cyclical and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains, while the medical and financial real - estate sectors led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, more rose than fell, with building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel leading the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks leading the losses [2][11]. - Trump's frequent actions on geopolitical issues have become an important factor affecting global market pricing. The threat of selling US Treasuries has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have also risen due to geopolitical risks [13]. - Currently, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Thinking: Geopolitical Disturbance, "Selling US Treasuries" and Gold and Silver - Market performance: From January 19 - 23, the All - A index rose 1.81%. Micro - cap stocks and the CSI 500 led the gains, while the CSI 300 and SSE 50 led the losses. Cyclical and advanced manufacturing styles led the gains, while medical and financial real - estate styles led the losses. Among the 31 Shenwan industries, building materials, petroleum and petrochemicals, and steel led the gains, and non - bank finance, communication, and banks led the losses [2][11]. - Geopolitical influence: Trump's actions on geopolitical issues have affected market pricing. The plan to sell US Treasuries by some pension funds has weakened the trust in US dollar assets, pushing funds into gold and silver. Crude oil prices have risen due to geopolitical risks. In the A - share market, micro - cap stocks and cyclical styles led the gains, and the space - photovoltaic concept was active [13][14]. 2. Market Observation: Decline in Stock - Bond Yield Difference and Industry Rotation Intensity 2.1 Market Valuation - The stock - bond yield difference dropped to 0.4%, less than +1 standard deviation. The valuation differentiation coefficient increased by 13.6% month - on - month, and this indicator usually peaks 0.5 - 1 months ahead of the market [22]. 2.2 Market Emotion - The market emotion index decreased by 24.8% month - on - month to 55.4, indicating an adjustment in the overall A - share emotion. The industry rotation intensity (MA5) dropped to 34, below the 40 warning level. The small - cap style was dominant, the micro - cap stock index outperformed the market, and the theme heat was mainly concentrated in gold and jewelry, selected photovoltaic, and glass fiber (13.1%, 11.8%, 11.6% respectively) [23]. 2.3 Market Structure - The market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The proportion of long - position stocks in petroleum and petrochemicals, building materials, and basic chemicals ranked among the top. There may be alpha opportunities within the comprehensive, electronics, and household appliances industries [29]. 2.4 Market Funds - The average daily trading amount of the Shanghai - Hong Kong and Shenzhen - Hong Kong Stock Connect during the week decreased by 626.61 billion yuan compared with last week, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 2.0243 million transactions. The top three stocks in terms of trading volume of the Stock Connect were Zhongji Innolight, New Fiber Optic Technology, and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, with their 5 - day gains being - 5.2%, - 3.6%, and - 1.5% respectively. Margin trading funds had a net outflow of 99.8 billion yuan, mainly flowing into the non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and banking industries. ETF funds mainly played a role in hedging the outflow of funds. The change in major index ETFs was - 107.02 billion shares, with CSI 2000, STAR 100, and China Securities 2000 being more popular. The average daily share of newly established equity - biased funds this week was 78.6 billion shares, a year - on - year increase of 203.9% and a 190.0% increase compared with last week [35]. 3. Industry Hotspots - Tesla may sell its humanoid robot "Optimus" to the public by the end of 2027, accelerating the industrial trend [48]. - Musk plans to deploy space - photovoltaic, opening up the development prospects of the photovoltaic industry [49]. - ChatGPT's advertising business is about to be launched, marking a new step in the AI commercialization process [50]. 4. Industry Allocation - In late January, which is the intensive period for annual report performance pre - disclosures, attention can be paid to directions with fundamental performance support (power equipment, AI computing power, and the price - increase chain). In addition, considering the market's pursuit of elasticity, attention can be given to small - cap styles and the "Musk chain" [5][18][52].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92% last week. Despite some equity broad - based indices experiencing fluctuations due to ETF fund outflows, convertible bonds showed strong optimism as they were not affected by such factors. Key asset characteristic indicators in the convertible bond market rapidly increased [3][11]. - The short - term overheating indicators have not been triggered yet, but if the market remains strong in the first half of this week, these indicators may appear in the second half [12][18]. - The call provision remains the main short - term valuation game point. It has a disturbing impact on the pricing of equity - like convertible bonds. Historically, call provisions have generally put pressure on the subsequent trends of convertible bonds [20]. - For the underlying stocks, the call is not just an event - based shock. Converting bonds to stocks for "extending the life" of call - announced convertible bonds does not significantly increase returns. The price recovery of underlying stocks is not a high - probability event after conversion and extended holding [21]. - A set of screening criteria for convertible bond conversion investment to achieve effective "extension of life" has been established. From 2019 to now, convertible bonds meeting these criteria have an arithmetic average return of 3.56%, a median return of 2.13%, and a positive return probability of 72%. For convertible bonds meeting these criteria, it is recommended to actively convert at a negative premium rate at the end of the bond's life and hold for 10 trading days [24]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Section 1: Is There a "Second Chance" for Convertible Bonds after Forced Redemption? - **Market Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 2.92% last week. The weighted average price of the entire market's convertible bonds reached 146 yuan, a record high. The number of convertible bond issues with a price > 130 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 20% reached 222, accounting for 58.58% of the entire market. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity between 110 - 130 yuan increased rapidly [11]. - **Overheating Indicators**: The short - term trading signal indicators mainly include the implied 3 - month yield and the moving - average overheating indicator. As of January 23, neither had been triggered, but if the market remains strong in the first half of this week, overheating indicators may appear in the second half [12][18]. - **Impact of Call Provisions**: Call provisions are the main short - term valuation game point, disturbing the pricing of equity - like convertible bonds. From 2019 to now, the arithmetic average return of 441 call - redeemed convertible bonds from the call announcement date to the last trading day was - 4.78%, the median return was - 4.88%, and the positive return probability was only 32.2% [20]. - **Effect of Conversion and Extended Holding**: For underlying stocks, converting call - announced convertible bonds to stocks and extending the holding period does not significantly increase returns. From 2019 to now, the arithmetic average return during the test period was - 0.50%, the median return was - 1.31%, and the positive return probability was 44.93% [21]. - **Screening Criteria for Conversion Investment**: The screening criteria are: on the trading day before the call announcement, the conversion value is between 120 yuan and 135 yuan; the remaining term of the convertible bond is between 1.5 and 4.5 years; the convertible bond's price change from the call announcement date to the last trading day is between - 5% and 10%. From 2019 to now, 25 convertible bonds meet these criteria, with an arithmetic average return of 3.56%, a median return of 2.13%, and a positive return probability of 72% [24].