Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming peak season for tourism and cultural activities, highlighting the potential of combining IP with scenic spots and the ongoing popularity of the "Su Chao" theme in Jiangsu [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on brands with high terminal store efficiency and significant expansion potential in the gold and jewelry sector, as well as the growing demand for personal care products driven by innovation and emotional branding [5][6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to see market share gains among leading institutions due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The tourism market in Hainan is thriving, with a 62% year-on-year increase in overall bookings for the summer of 2025 [11] - China Duty Free Group is expanding its presence in Macau with a new store opening [11] - Investment suggestions include focusing on duty-free operators and their city store openings, particularly China Duty Free, Wangfujing, and Lingnan Holdings [11] 2. Trendy Toys - The trendy toy sector is experiencing short-term volatility due to regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the secondary market, but long-term growth is anticipated as China's cultural products expand internationally [19] - In the first five months of 2025, the domestic online sales of trendy toys reached approximately 2.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61% [19][22] 3. Hotels - The hotel sector is seeing fluctuations in RevPAR due to the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a notable year-on-year decline in performance metrics [36] - Supply growth remains stable, primarily driven by lower-tier markets [40] 4. Education - The number of high school graduates is expected to remain high, maintaining competitive pressure in the education sector [42] - The number of college graduates is projected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, increasing demand for vocational training and exam preparation services [45] 5. Medical Beauty and Cosmetics - The medical beauty sector is recovering, with a focus on product innovation and market share expansion among leading companies [47] - The beauty sector is expected to see a rebound in sales during the 618 shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [53][58] 6. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector increasing by 21.8% year-on-year in May 2025 [82] - Investment recommendations include brands with strong terminal store performance and expansion potential, such as Chao Hong Ji and Lai Shen Tong Ling [86]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate development investment in China from January to May 2025 was 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The new construction area was 230 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year, and the completed area was 180 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 350 million square meters, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.6% year-on-year. The sales amount of new commercial housing was 3.4 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.8% year-on-year [2][12] - The report highlights that various cities are implementing policies to support the real estate market, including loan issuance for urban renewal projects and adjustments to housing policies to ease purchasing conditions. These measures are expected to enhance market expectations and stabilize the real estate sector [2][12] - In the short term, the report emphasizes the pressure for stable growth and the need for stronger policy support for the real estate market. In the medium to long term, it suggests that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. may provide more room for China's monetary and fiscal policies, which could further stabilize the real estate market [2][12] Summary by Sections High-Frequency Data - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China was 367.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% week-on-week, and down 3.5% year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1180.0 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, and down 28.6% year-on-year [3][21] Sector Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 1.6%. The building materials sector index decreased by 1.42%. Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 2.23%, while cement manufacturing fell by 2.2% [4][56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [5] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [5]

Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on in vivo CAR-T therapies, highlighting the competitive landscape and potential investment opportunities in companies like Cloudbreak and CSPC [1][2] - In vivo CAR-T therapies are expected to revolutionize cell therapy paradigms, with several biotech firms, including Capstan Therapeutics and EsoBiotec, initiating clinical trials [2][31] - The global sales of autologous CAR-T therapies are projected to exceed $4.5 billion in 2024, with significant growth potential despite challenges such as complex manufacturing processes and high costs [11][12] In Vivo CAR-T Therapy - In vivo CAR-T therapy simplifies the manufacturing process and reduces costs, potentially making treatments more accessible and affordable compared to traditional methods [20][21] - The core challenge lies in the effective and safe delivery of CAR constructs to target T cells, with two main technological routes: lentiviral vectors and RNA delivery systems [31][28] - Companies like AstraZeneca and AbbVie are actively investing in in vivo CAR-T platforms, indicating a strong interest from major pharmaceutical players [30][29] Market Trends and Strategies - The report identifies key investment strategies, recommending a focus on leading companies and those with promising clinical data, particularly in the context of upcoming industry catalysts [2][59] - Notable companies to watch include BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and CSPC, which are expected to drive growth through innovative drug development and commercialization efforts [2][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical data and commercialization as key drivers for the success of innovative drugs in the market [2][59] Company Highlights - Cloudbreak has developed a fully integrated mRNA platform with clinical validation, focusing on multiple cancer and autoimmune-related mRNA therapeutics [50][54] - CSPC's SYS6020, an mRNA-LNP based CAR-T therapy, has entered clinical trials, showcasing advancements in safety and efficacy compared to traditional CAR-T products [56][58] - Capstan Therapeutics has reported promising preclinical data for its mRNA-based in vivo CAR-T therapies, indicating strong potential for future clinical applications [44][49]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [52]. Core Insights - The semiconductor materials sector is accelerating domestic production, with rapid expansion in downstream wafer factories, highlighting the competitive advantages of leading companies [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the photoresist segment as a critical core area for self-sufficiency in China, with a positive outlook for Tongcheng New Materials in terms of import substitution [4]. - The demand for high-performance materials is expected to increase as domestic manufacturing upgrades continue, leading to rapid growth in the new materials industry [4]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Huate Gas, Anji Technology, and Dinglong Co., which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry upgrades and innovations [4]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3610.81 points, down 1.18% week-on-week [3][9]. - Among six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index decreased by 0.3%, while the display device materials index increased by 1.09% [3][9]. - The lithium battery index rose by 2.23%, indicating a positive trend in that segment [3][9]. Recent Industry Highlights - SJ Semiconductor Corporation's IPO guidance has entered the acceptance phase, indicating progress in the capital market [4][27]. - Several Chinese automotive manufacturers are set to achieve 100% localization of chips by 2026, a significant increase from the current target of 25% [4][27]. - Mitsubishi Chemical announced the relocation of its PMMA factory in China to enhance its market share in the PMMA sector [4][28]. - Dingji Technology successfully launched a pilot production line for high-end POE materials, paving the way for future production capacity [4][31].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][63]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a dual weakness in domestic supply and demand, with major manufacturers maintaining price stability, leading to a stabilization in antimony prices [5][47]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of gold and antimony resources [5][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Antimony Ore - In May 2025, antimony ore imports were 2,322 tons, a decrease of 1,917 tons (-45%) month-on-month, but an increase of 159 tons (+7.3%) year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to May were 16,092 tons, down 5,201 tons (-24%) year-on-year [3][11]. - The average import price for antimony ore in May was $8,205 per ton, up 39% month-on-month and 69% year-on-year [11]. 2. Midstream Antimony Ingots - Antimony ingot production in May was 6,356 tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month but a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to May was 32,000 tons, up 4% (+1,203 tons) year-on-year [20][23]. - There were no exports of antimony ingots in May, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 247 tons, down 84% year-on-year [23]. 3. Midstream Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in May was 7,850 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%. Cumulative production from January to May was 35,000 tons, down 19% year-on-year [4][27]. - Exports in May were 159 tons, a decrease of 798 tons (-83%) month-on-month and 3,087 tons (-95%) year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to May were 4,564 tons, down 9,504 tons (-68%) year-on-year [29]. 4. Downstream Demand - In May, the production of sodium antimonate was 2,475 tons, up 21% month-on-month but down 21% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to May was 10,267 tons, down 45% year-on-year [34]. - The production of photovoltaic glass in May was 2.47 million tons, an increase of 7.9% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to May was 10.42 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year [42]. 5. Supply and Prices - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic price of antimony ingots was 202,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 47,000 yuan (+30%) year-on-year. International prices remained above $60,000 per ton [47][50]. - The report notes that some manufacturers are adopting price support strategies, with the price range for 1 antimony ingots maintained between 180,000-200,000 yuan per ton [50].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the consumer electronics sector [8] Core Insights - The electronic sector index increased by 1.26% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.77 percentage points [2][13] - Semiconductor materials, printed circuit boards, and semiconductor equipment saw significant gains, rising by 7.97%, 6.42%, and 2.99% respectively [2][13] - Meta's collaboration with Oakley to launch AI smart glasses marks a significant expansion in wearable technology, following the success of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses [4][29] - Honor's Magic V5 smartphone, featuring AI capabilities, aims to enhance user interaction and expand the AI ecosystem [5][92] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - The electronic sector index rose by 1.26%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.77 percentage points [2][13] - Semiconductor materials led the gains with a 7.97% increase, followed by printed circuit boards at 6.42% and semiconductor equipment at 2.99% [2][13] 2. Consumer Electronics Demand - Global smartphone shipments increased by 1.53% year-on-year in Q1 2025, totaling 305 million units [20] - Global PC shipments grew by 4.98% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 63.2 million units [36] - AI smart glasses shipments surged by 215.79% year-on-year in Q1 2025, driven by strong sales of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses [69] 3. Industry Dynamics - The PCB sector is experiencing growth, with companies like Shenghong Technology achieving a market value exceeding 100 billion yuan [83] - Meta plans to launch new AI smart glasses in collaboration with luxury brands, targeting active consumers [84][85] - Two semiconductor companies, Hengyun Chang and Shanghai Chao Silicon, have had their IPO applications accepted, indicating strong growth potential in the semiconductor sector [88][89]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Insights - The ASIC market is experiencing strong demand, with Marvell projecting data center capital expenditures to reach $94 billion by 2028, a 25% increase from previous estimates [3]. - Custom computing, including XPU and its accessories, is the largest and fastest-growing segment, with an expected market size of approximately $40 billion and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% [3]. - Major cloud providers are accelerating their ASIC chip development, with combined capital expenditures expected to exceed $320 billion by 2025, reflecting a 30% year-on-year growth [4]. - The demand for supporting components such as PCB, CCL, and optical modules is anticipated to see structural growth due to the ASIC chip demand [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The electronic industry is rated as "Outperform" [7]. ASIC Market Demand - ASIC demand is robust, with Marvell forecasting a 25% increase in data center capital expenditures to $94 billion by 2028 [3]. - The custom computing segment, particularly XPU, is projected to grow at a CAGR of 47%, reaching a market size of $40 billion [3]. Cloud Providers' ASIC Development - Major cloud providers are rapidly advancing their ASIC projects, with significant capital expenditures expected to exceed $320 billion by 2025, marking a 30% increase year-on-year [4]. - Marvell is a key player in providing foundational computing support for major cloud companies [4]. Supporting Components Growth - The demand for components like PCB is expected to grow structurally due to the stringent requirements of ASIC chips [4]. - The global HDI PCB market is projected to exceed $14.34 billion by 2025, achieving an 8.7% year-on-year growth [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities within the ASIC chip-related hardware supply chain, including companies like Shenghong Technology, Huitian Technology, and others [5].

Group 1: Investment Highlights - The report highlights a focus on accelerating pharmaceutical innovation, comprehensive layout of integrated circuits, facilitation of rare earth exports, upgrading of manufacturing technology, and boosting inbound consumption, while also paying attention to overseas education cooperation [2][11]. - The capital market shows significant differentiation, with banks and technology hardware leading the gains, while consumer and pharmaceutical sectors are under pressure [2][11]. Group 2: Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the top five performing sectors this week were banks (+3.13%), telecommunications services (+1.41%), hardware equipment (+1.00%), oil and petrochemicals (+0.32%), and semiconductors (+0.20%) [2][23]. - The sectors with the largest declines included household goods (-6.18%), textiles and apparel II (-5.08%), durable consumer goods (-4.84%), pharmaceutical biology (-4.39%), and consumer services (-3.76%) [2][23]. Group 3: Popular Concepts - The top ten gaining concepts this week included circuit boards (+6.62%), lithium battery anodes (+4.73%), oil and gas extraction (+4.49%), central enterprise banks (+4.05%), and digital currency (+3.90%) [3][26]. - The top ten declining concepts included gold and jewelry (-7.41%), medical beauty (-6.44%), pet economy (-6.37%), Xiaohongshu platform (-5.60%), and contract research organizations (CRO) (-5.60%) [3][26]. Group 4: Monthly Performance - For the month, the top ten gaining concepts were optical modules (CPO) (+17.29%), circuit boards (+13.80%), oil and gas extraction (+13.58%), rare earth permanent magnets (+13.55%), and lithium battery anodes (+11.75%) [3][27]. - The top ten declining concepts for the month included high share transfers (-8.78%), animal health selections (-6.34%), and aviation transport selections (-5.45%) [3][27]. Group 5: Policy Updates - The National Medical Products Administration is working on optimizing the clinical trial review and approval process for innovative drugs, aiming to complete reviews within 30 working days for eligible applications [12]. - The Ministry of Commerce is expediting the review of rare earth export license applications to maintain global supply chain stability [14]. - The government is promoting the high-quality development of the integrated circuit industry through various supportive policies [13].

策略定期研究 2025 年 6 月 23 日 海外市场周观察（0616-0622） 华福证券 美联储内部政策观点分歧扩大 投资要点： 本周美股市场在经济数据低迷与地缘政治冲突背景下小幅震荡。6月美联 储议息会议连续第四次会议按兵不动，将基准利率维持在4.25%-4.50%不 变，符合市场预期。美联储内部政策观点分歧扩大，点阵图预计今年将降息 两次，但预计今年不降息的美联储官员人数升至7位，明年的降息预期被削减 至1次，议息会议后鲍威尔发言偏鹰，表示通胀水平一直略高于目标，不能假 设关税引发的通胀冲击仅仅是一次性的，预计未来几个月将出现关税驱动的 通胀上升。同时，里士满联储主席巴尔金表示目前数据显示没有紧迫的理由 进行降息，而理事沃勒则表示或许最早在七月会议上就可能降息，旧金山联 储主席戴利表示经济基本面正朝着可能需要降息的方向发展。下周需要重点 关注5月PCE数据，当前市场预期核心PCE将上涨2.6%（前值2.5%），若实 际数据高于预期可能引发对二次通胀的担忧，降息时点或将进一步后移。 美国经济数据方面：（1）美国5月工业产出月率为-0.20%，低于前值和 预期值0.10%。（2）劳动力市场方面，美国至6月 ...

策 略 研 究 华福证券 三主题走出突破形态 团队成员 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 主题投资数据库旨在筛选优秀量价形态的主题机会，把握热门主题的 见顶节奏、龙头股的调整程度。在 3/9 发布的《主题投资的下半场决胜法 则》中，我们构建了主题投资的数据追踪体系。我们专注于 2 方面：1）4 种形态量化筛选，高赔率的主题机会；2）构建交易热度指标，把握热门主 题的见顶节奏，并最新增加了龙头股的调整程度观察。后续，我们将定期 更新主题投资数据体系。我们希望通过这种偏量化的方式，给予投资者更 客观的参考，把握住主题投资的行情节奏。 三主题走出突破形态。本期走出见底、突破、主升、加速的主题指数 数量分别有 0、3、1、0 只。其中，3 只突破形态的主题指数，行业分别为 交通运输、计算机、国防军工，1 只主升形态的主题指数来自电子行业。 人形机器人、Deepseek 主题交易热度继续回落，对应龙头股收盘价仍 低于 MA60 的位置。我们对人形机器人、Deepseek 主题进行交易热度的监 控，并且观察龙头股的调整程度。其中，人形机器人的交易热度回落至 52%， 长盛轴承的收盘价高于 MA60 的幅度为-13.1% ...