华福证券 行业研 轻工制造 10 月家居鞋服社零改善，金属包装整合推进 投资要点： 【周观点】10 月家具、体育文娱用品、鞋服社零增速表现较好，地产竣工 和销售均环比显著改善，关注家居、纺服、文具龙头需求回暖；奥瑞金 11 月 11 日公告收购中粮包装获国家发改委备案，关注行业整合预期；百亚双 十一战报亮眼，持续公司看好产品升级、渠道扩张带来的高成长性。 【周研究】本周外发报告《永艺股份（603600.SH）首次覆盖：α势能凸显， 期待新渠道、新客户持续放量》。公司作为我国办公椅行业领军企业，海 外新客户、新渠道、新项目驱动有望延续，同时内销积极发力自有品牌， 首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 1）家居：据国家统计局，10 月家居社零同比+7.4%，增速环比+7pct； 10 月住宅竣工同比-19.5%、降幅环比收窄 11pct，住宅销售面积同比 -0.5%、降幅环比收窄 10pct，，住宅新开工面积同比-25.7%、降幅环 比扩大 8pct。10 月以来，全国多地家居补贴推进带动终端需求逐步回 升，虽然部分地区近期面临额度紧张等问题，但我们认为 25 年国内消 费复苏趋势不变；叠加 10 月地产数据环比好转，持 ...

华福证券 房地产 专项债收购存量闲置土地推进，城中村改造提速扩容 周度观点： 自然资源部：推进专项债收购存量闲置土地 11 月 11 日，自然资源部发布《关于运用地方政府专项债券资金收回收购 存量闲置土地的通知》，主要明确如下要求：（1） 收购范围：优先收回 收购企业无力或无意愿继续开发、已供应未动工的住宅用地和商服用地、 破产拍卖程序的土地等。（2）价格标准和程序：由土地储备机构委托经备 案的土地估价机构估价，报人民政府批准确认。（3）收回后再供应：收回 收购的土地原则上当年不再供应用于房地产开发。若确有需求，供应面积 不得超过当年收回收购房地产用地总面积的 50%。 我们认为，专项债收储将改善土地市场供求关系，增强企业和地方政府流 动性，促进市场止跌回稳。 住建部、财政部：城中村改造提速扩容 11 月 15 日，住建部、财政部部署各地进一步做好城中村改造工作，推动 符合条件的项目尽快启动实施。具体包括三项要求：（1）扩大支持范围。 城中村改造政策支持范围从最初的 35 个超大特大城市和城区常住人口 300 万以上的大城市，继续扩围至近 300 个地级及以上城市。（2）稳妥推进货 币化安置。从实际出发，稳妥 ...

华福证券 食品饮料 短期预期博弈或有扰动，长期向好趋势明晰 投资要点： 【白酒】短期内白酒板块的量价压力仍在，基本面边际变化不大，整体 需求平淡已在市场预期之内，预计 Q4 及开门红压力仍在，25 年报表端或 以调整为主，且明年酒企若以价换量仍有层层踩踏的风险，但三季度报表 端集体进行压力释放为本轮调整期拐点可期的积极信号。考虑到板块仓位 回落幅度及时长相对充分，股价或先于基本面磨底，若后续财政政策超 预期，白酒作为顺周期板块有望加速估值修复。建议关注茅台、五粮液、 老窖、古井、汾酒、舍得酒业、水井坊。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒，建议关注分红率稳定且 ROE/PB 较高的重庆啤酒。 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】重点推荐预调酒行业龙头百润股份，历史行情通常为大单品所 驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，当前临近威士忌发布 节点，重点推荐。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情况。 ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry maintains a "Strong Buy" rating, outperforming the market [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is expected to rebound due to expanded heating coverage and the potential arrival of cold waves, with the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price at 837 RMB/ton as of November 15, 2024, reflecting a weekly decline of 10 RMB/ton [2]. - The report emphasizes that coal remains in a "golden era" due to energy transformation demands, with supply tightness driven by strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties [2]. - The report suggests that coal companies are likely to maintain strong profitability, with cash flow advantages following balance sheet optimization [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The coal index fell by 3.45% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which decreased by 3.29% [14]. - The coal sector's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 12.4, ranking it among the lowest in the A-share market [14]. 2. Thermal Coal 2.1 Key Indicators Overview - As of November 15, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 837 RMB/ton, down 10 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The operating rate of coal mines in the Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia regions is 84.2%, up 0.7 percentage points week-on-week [48]. 2.2 Annual Long-term Contract Prices - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 699 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month [26]. 2.3 Spot Prices - The domestic coal price for Shanxi weakly sticky coal (5500K) is 707 RMB/ton, down 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. - The price for Inner Mongolia's large block premium coal (5500K) is 717 RMB/ton, up 5 RMB/ton week-on-week [30]. 2.4 Supply and Demand - The daily consumption of the six major power plants is 76.4 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons week-on-week [51]. - The inventory of the six major power plants is 1507.8 thousand tons, up 21 thousand tons week-on-week [51]. 3. Coking Coal - The report highlights that coking coal's value is gradually becoming apparent under supportive policies, with a focus on companies with improved production and sales [2].

华福证券 电子 2024 年 11 月 16 日 北 SK 海力士推 HBM3e 16hi，思科需求好转调升营 收指引-海外科技周跟踪 投资要点： 本周纳斯达克综合指数下跌 3.15%，费城半导体下跌 8.64% 本周美股三大指数在周一收盘创新高后持续疲软。周五降息预期 大幅下降进一步导致美股承压，"科技七姐妹"仅特斯拉收涨 3.07%， 全周仍累跌 0.16%，半导体板块中应用材料 25Q1 财季营收指引不及预 期，引发芯片需求担忧，拖累纳指和标普科技板块跌超 2%。具体来看， 半导体板块中，美光科技周跌幅 13.91%，微芯科技周跌幅 13.74%，应 用材料周跌幅 12.06%；互联网板块中，Meta 周跌幅 5.98%，阿里巴巴 周跌幅 5.95%，奈飞周涨幅 3.64%；软件板块中，Snowflake 周涨幅 4.19%，SAP 周跌幅 3.89%，微软周跌幅 1.78%。 SK 海力士推 HBM3e 16hi 产品，推升位元容量上限 根据 Trendforce 报道，SK 海力士在 SK AI Summit 2024 活动中透 露其正在开发 HBM3e 16hi 产品，每颗 HBM 芯片容量为 4 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][80] Core Viewpoints - Geely Holding announced an optimization of the equity structure for Zeekr and Lynk & Co, transferring 11.3% of Zeekr shares for $806 million (approximately 5.8 billion RMB), increasing Geely's stake in Zeekr to about 62.8% [9][10] - Lynk & Co will have its equity structure adjusted, with Geely selling 20% of its shares for 3.6 billion RMB and Volvo selling 30% for 5.4 billion RMB, resulting in a 50% ownership split between Geely and Zeekr [9][10] - The integration aims to implement a dual-brand strategy, with Zeekr focusing on luxury technology and Lynk & Co targeting the global high-end new energy market [11] Market Performance - From November 11 to November 15, the automotive sector declined by 2.5%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 3.3%, indicating that the automotive sector outperformed the index by 0.8 percentage points [11] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 16.6%, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [11] Sales Data - From November 1 to November 10, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 567,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 29%, but a month-on-month decrease of 3% [28] - Wholesale sales for the same period were 667,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 41% and a month-on-month increase of 45% [29] Key Industry Data - In October, total automotive sales were 3.053 million units, with a month-on-month increase of 8.7% and a year-on-year increase of 7% [31] - From January to October, total automotive sales reached 24.624 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [31] Industry News - Leap Motor reported a revenue of 9.86 billion RMB for Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 74.3%, with a delivery of 86,165 units, up 94.4% [63] - The 22nd Guangzhou International Auto Show opened, featuring over 80 brands and 1,171 vehicles, including 78 global debut models [71]

华福证券 上 基础化工 行业周报：中石化年产 120 万吨乙烯项目投产， 神马尼龙 6 项目投料试车成功 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 3.52%，创业板指数下跌 3.36%， 沪深 300 下跌 3.29%，中信基础化工指数下跌 3.53%，申万化工指数下跌 3.57%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为合 成树脂(0.08%)、绵纶(-0.55%)、轮胎(-0.97%)、氯碱(-1.63%)、食品及饲料添加 剂(-1.81%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为粘胶(-8.06%)、橡胶助剂 (-8.01%)、纯碱(-7.75%)、磷肥及磷化工(-6.76%)、涤纶(-5.88%)。 团队成员 分析师： 李骥(S0210524080008) lj30599@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 周丹露(S0210524050020) zdl30566@hfzq.com.cn 本周行业主要动态： 中石化年产 120 万吨乙烯项目投产。11 月 11 日，中国石化天津南港 120 万吨/年乙烯及下游高端新材料产业集群项目一次开车成功并打通全流程生产 出合格产品，项目 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][4]. Core Views - The company is a leading player in the commercial kitchen equipment sector, with a strong global presence and a focus on intelligent product development [1][3]. - The company has achieved a revenue CAGR of 16% and a net profit CAGR of 20% from 2013 to 2023, indicating robust growth [1]. - The U.S. restaurant industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, but there are signs of marginal improvement as of August 2024 [2][63]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has been deeply involved in the commercial kitchen equipment sector since its establishment in 2003, with significant overseas expansion starting in 2012 [14][19]. - It has established subsidiaries in various countries, including the U.S., U.K., France, Germany, and Australia, contributing to its global footprint [1][14]. Financial Data - The company reported a revenue of 26.53 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight year-over-year decline of 0.39% due to reduced sales prices despite increased sales volume [26]. - The net profit for 2023 was 5.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 13.54% [26]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 20.93 billion yuan, up 1.75% year-over-year, and a net profit of 4.79 billion yuan, up 17.83% year-over-year [26][27]. Business Structure - The overseas market has become the primary revenue source for the company, with 94.4% of revenue coming from international sales in the first half of 2024 [35][40]. - The company has a diverse product matrix, including commercial refrigeration equipment, self-service equipment, and Western kitchen equipment, with commercial refrigeration being the largest revenue contributor [48][49]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights a trend of increasing concentration in the industry, with leading companies gaining market share and moving towards higher-end markets [74][77]. - The competitive environment is characterized by intense price competition among smaller players, while larger international brands dominate the market [74]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 12% and a net profit CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2026, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of 1.50 yuan, 1.71 yuan, and 1.95 yuan for the respective years [3][4]. - The report suggests that the company's overseas expansion and focus on intelligent products position it well for future growth [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating for consumer electronics is "stronger than the market" [4] Core Views - The consumer electronics sector is experiencing a short-term stabilization and recovery, driven by AI innovation cycles and continuous product launches from major companies [3] - AI is expected to first impact mature consumer electronics products like smartphones, leading to increased demand for upgrades and higher average selling prices (ASP) [3] - The domestic manufacturers have a significant advantage in the global consumer electronics manufacturing landscape, with established production capacities in regions like Vietnam and Thailand, which mitigates potential tariff risks [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The consumer electronics index decreased by 2.01% from November 11 to November 15, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.29% and the electronic index by 3.77%, indicating better performance than the broader market [1] - AI and hardware-related stocks showed significant activity, with notable increases in companies like Doctor Glass (+32%) and Mingyue Lens (+26%) [1] Industry Developments - Major companies are actively entering the AI space, with Baidu launching AI glasses and Xiaomi planning to release AI glasses in collaboration with Goer [2] - The exploration of new hardware forms, such as AR/VR and AIOT products, is expected to accelerate due to AI integration [3] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include those in the Apple supply chain, smart speakers, AIPC industry chain, XR industry chain, and foldable screen industry chain [4]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Aosaikang with a "Buy" rating [5][7]. Core Views - Aosaikang is experiencing a turning point in operations, with a forecasted return to profitability in the first half of 2024 due to the clearance of centralized procurement and the launch of new products [5][20]. - The company is transitioning towards innovation, with significant progress in drug development, particularly in the areas of third-generation EGFR inhibitors and Claudin18.2 [5][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Aosaikang, a leader in the digestive field, has faced challenges since 2019 due to centralized procurement and the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a significant decline in revenue [17][20]. - The company is now poised for recovery, with innovative drugs expected to contribute positively to future performance [5][17]. 2. Traditional Business - The digestive business has been significantly impacted by centralized procurement, with revenue dropping from 33.7 billion in 2019 to 3 billion in 2023 [5][31]. - New products, such as Right Lansoprazole, are expected to drive revenue growth in the digestive segment [33]. - The oncology segment has seen a revenue decline from 10.2 billion in 2019 to 6.2 billion in 2023, but its revenue share is increasing due to the sharper decline in the digestive segment [35]. 3. Innovative Transformation - Aosaikang has partnered with Innovent to commercialize third-generation EGFR inhibitors, which are expected to achieve rapid market penetration [5][17]. - The company is advancing in the development of Claudin18.2 and IL-15 prodrugs, which are seen as promising therapeutic targets in oncology [5][3]. 4. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for Aosaikang are 16.7 billion, 19 billion, and 23.4 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a recovery trajectory [5][6]. - The company’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is below the average of comparable companies, suggesting potential undervaluation [5].