公 华福证券 火力发电 2025 年 08 月 26 日 司 研 究 皖能电力（000543.SZ） 2Q25 归母净利增速转正，毛利率环比修复 投资要点： 公 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。1H2025 公司实现营收 131.85 亿 元，同比减少 5.83%；归属于母公司股东的净利润 10.82 亿元，同比增长 1.05%。分季度看，2Q2025 单季度营收 67.66 亿元，同比减少 3.57%；归属 于母公司股东的净利润 6.38 亿元，同比增长 3.26%。 司 财 报 点 评 1H25 营收降幅 6%，归母净利润同比微增 1%：1H2025 公司营业收入 下降 5.83%，我们认为或主要系量价影响：1）1H2025 安徽火电发电量同 比下降 7.9%；火电利用小时数为 2190 小时，同比减少 166 小时，上半年 公司存量火电机组发电量下降，但是会有增量机组电量缓冲（2024-2025 年先后投产了长丰燃气电厂、英格玛电厂和钱营孜电厂）。2）2025 年安 徽省双边协商电量电价 412.97 元/兆瓦时，同比 2024 年下降 23 元/兆瓦时， 对应降幅 5.35%。1H2025 公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][17] Core Views - The company reported a steady revenue growth of 3.54% year-on-year, achieving a total revenue of 25.634 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 5.2% to 949 million yuan [3][6] - The company's parent entity showed a robust revenue growth of 12.5% in the first half of 2025, with a revenue of 12.004 billion yuan. However, some subsidiaries experienced significant fluctuations in revenue and profit, impacting the overall net profit [4][6] - The accounts receivable turnover days improved slightly to 104.8 days, a reduction of 0.6 days year-on-year, indicating better operational efficiency [5][6] - The company is projected to have net profits of 2.04 billion yuan, 2.17 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 11, 11, and 10 times [6][12] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 6.14%, a decrease of 0.94 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 3.7%, down by 0.34 percentage points [5][6] - The company’s total assets were reported at 34.928 billion yuan, with a debt ratio of 44.41% [8][12] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 53.037 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5% [12]

华福证券 乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 25H1 业绩点评：自主品牌持续景气高增 ➢ 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025H1 年公司实现营业总收入 32.21 亿元，同比+32.72%，归母净利润 3.78 亿元，同比+22.55%，扣非归母净利 润 3.67 亿元，同比+26.46%。单季度来看，25Q2 实现营业总收入 17.41 亿 元，同比+30.99%，归母净利润 1.74 亿元，同比+8.54%，扣非归母净利润 1.69 亿元，同比+10.43%。利润分配：向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 2.5 元（含税），送红股 0 股（含税），不以公积金转增股本。 ➢ 自有品牌表现持续靓丽，直销渠道占比明显提升。分业务来看，自有 品牌：麦富迪品牌：精准锁定年轻消费群体并布局高端犬猫粮市场，屡登 电商销售榜首；高端副品牌霸弗天然粮迅速崛起，24 年双十一期间全网销 售额同比增长 150%；弗列加特品牌：以"鲜肉精准营养"的创新研发技术 成果为核心，满足细分喂养场景需求，成功推出了"大红桶冻干"、"高机 能烘焙粮"两大明星系列。久谦数据显示 25H1 线上猫狗食品麦富迪品牌销 售额+26%，弗列加特 ...

司 研 究 永艺股份（603600.SH） 全球化布局韧性凸显，下半年需求回暖可期 投资要点： 公 司 财 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 公司实现营收 21.89 亿元，同比 +6.66%，归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+4.92%，扣非归母净利润 1.29 亿元， 同比+2.74%。单季度看，25Q2 实现营收 11.78 亿元，同比-1.42%，归母净 利润 0.75 亿元，同比-10.34%，扣非归母 0.75 亿元，同比-9.36%。Q2 同比 下滑主要受行业对美出口疲软及同期高基数影响。 报 点 评 全球化布局成效凸显，大客户战略持续深化。分区域来看，25H1 公司 外销/内销营收分别为 16.42/5.41 亿元，同比分别增长 3.7%/15.4%。受新一 轮关税战影响，美国市场家具类产品终端需求走弱，叠加关税政策不确定 性使渠道商采购备库更加谨慎，同时订单加快从中国向外转移，中国办公 椅出口额同比-7.22%，其中对美国的出口额同比-29.37%。面对贸易摩擦与 产能结构性转移，公司大客户战略与前瞻性的全球化产能布局构筑了坚实 的护城河，一方面，公司始终坚持"数一数二"市场战略， ...

华福证券 塑料包装 2025 年 08 月 26 日 公 司 研 究 永新股份（002014.SZ） 经营稳健外销高增，中期高分红股息价值强化 投资要点： 公 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 公司实现营收 17.46 亿元，同比 +5.78%，归母净利润 1.83 亿元，同比+1.72%，扣非归母净利润 1.73 亿元， 同比+1.93%。单季度来看，25Q2 公司营收 8.98 亿元，同比+10.07%，归母 净利润 0.94 亿元，同比+0.65%，扣非归母 0.89 亿元，同比+0.89%。 司 财 报 点 评 薄膜新材料增长势能充足，海外业务加速扩张。1）分产品看，25H1 彩 印 复 合 包 材 / 塑 料 软 包 薄 膜 / 油 墨 / 真 空 镀 铝 包 材 营 收 分 别 为 12.19/3.69/0.74/0.35 亿元，同比分别+2.6%/+20.3%/+3.8%/+22.3%。薄膜新 材料增长靓丽，公司聚焦于高阻隔膜、单一材质可回收膜（BOPE）等高附 加值、差异化产品，积极推进 3 万吨双向拉伸多功能膜和 2.2 万吨新型功 能膜等新产能建设，预计 2026 年起陆续投产。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of the AI video generation era, with Google Veo3 leading the way and enhancing the YouTube video ecosystem [2][3]. - Google Veo3 has generated over 70 million videos globally as of July 30, supporting up to 4K resolution and simplifying video production with integrated audio generation capabilities [3]. - The user-generated content (UGC) video ecosystem is thriving, with a significant increase in AI-generated content channels on YouTube, contributing to an average of 500 hours of new videos uploaded every minute [4]. - YouTube's active user base exceeds 2.5 billion, with daily viewing hours surpassing 1 billion, and ad revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 13.1% year-on-year to $9.8 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The AI-driven content creation tools are significantly improving content creation efficiency and lowering barriers to entry, leading to a surge in AI-generated and derivative content [5]. - The global piracy monitoring agency MUSO reported that global visits to piracy websites reached 216 billion in 2024, highlighting the growing issue of copyright infringement [5]. Company Analysis - The report identifies the company as a leading SaaS provider for copyright management, benefiting from the increasing demand for copyright protection in the AIGC era [6]. - The company's subscription business is projected to grow by 27% year-on-year to HKD 1.1 billion in 2024, while value-added services are expected to increase by 15% to HKD 1.3 billion [6]. - The launch of the AIGC video platform DreamMaker and the MAX copyright trading platform aims to provide comprehensive services from content generation to copyright protection and monetization [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook [4][15]. Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in e-commerce and product upgrades, particularly for the "Cold Acid Spirit" brand, which shows significant brand momentum [2][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 840 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 17.6% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 200 million yuan, 260 million yuan, and 310 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 25.8%, 26.5%, and 21.0% [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2023A is 1,376 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5%, increasing to 2,485 million yuan by 2027E, with a growth rate of 16% [3][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 141 million yuan in 2023A to 310 million yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 5% in 2023A and 21% in 2027E [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.82 yuan in 2023A to 1.80 yuan in 2027E, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 54.0 to 24.6 over the same period [3][8]. Product and Channel Performance - The company has seen significant growth in its product categories, with adult toothpaste and electric oral care products showing year-on-year increases of 23% and 54.9% respectively in H1 2025 [6][8]. - E-commerce sales have surged by 86.6% in H1 2025, contributing to a 36% share of total sales, indicating a successful channel strategy [6][8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 52.6% in H1 2025, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product upgrades and effective marketing strategies [6][8].

华福证券 证 券 研 盈利预测与投资建议：结合公司当期业绩，我们调整盈利预测，预计 公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 0.78/0.93/1.08 亿元（25-26 年前值为 0.88/1.05 亿元），分别同增 22%/18%/17%，对应当前股价 PE 分别为 37/31/27 倍，对 应维持"买入"评级。 究 报 风险提示：国内需求恢复不及预期、原材料价格波动、海外业务拓展不及 预期、产能投放不及预期、汇率波动风险、食品安全风险 公 司 研 究 日辰股份（603755.SH） 冷冻烘焙并表贡献增量，控费得当盈利能力提升 公 司 事件：公司披露 2024 年半年度业绩：25 年 H1 公司实现营收 2.04 亿元， 同比+8.63%；归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比+22.64%；扣非归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比+27.73%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营收 1.02 亿元，同比+6.85%； 归母净利润 0.18 亿元，同比+11.04%；扣非归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同比 +14.15%。 财 报 点 评 新品与渠道双轮驱动，市场开拓成果显著。分品类看，25Q2 公司酱汁 类调味料/粉体类调味料/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [96] Core Insights - The report highlights the "Small Happiness" consumption trend, indicating that new consumption does not rely on overall economic growth but rather on the expansion of consumption behaviors among niche groups [3][12] - The tourism sector, particularly in Changbai Mountain, has seen significant growth, with July 2025 visitor numbers reaching 810,200, a 37.8% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the month [4][51] - The duty-free sector is expected to benefit from the upcoming Hainan Free Trade Port's closure, which will allow visa-free entry for individuals from 85 countries, significantly increasing the user base for duty-free shopping [4][45] - The report emphasizes the potential of the "trendy play" sector, supported by recent policies aimed at stimulating consumption and industry regulation, which may favor compliant leading enterprises [5][53] - In the education sector, advancements in AI+ education are noted, with several companies launching AI-driven educational products, indicating a potential revenue surge for key players [6][63] - The medical beauty industry is undergoing optimization through refined operations, with leading institutions expected to capture more market share as new products are launched [6][73] Summary by Sections New Consumption - New consumption is characterized by emotional value rather than cost-effectiveness, with a shift from heavy asset allocation to frequent "small happiness" purchases [3][12] - The youth demographic (ages 15-24) is projected to drive consumption trends as they enter the labor market, while the adult demographic's influence is expected to diminish [15] Duty-Free and Tourism - The duty-free industry is poised for growth with the Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming closure, enhancing the attractiveness of the region for international tourists [42][45] - Changbai Mountain's tourism data indicates a strong recovery and growth potential, particularly in the summer season [4][51] Trendy Play - The trendy play sector is expected to benefit from consumption policies and industry self-regulation, with long-term prospects for cultural products expanding overseas [5][53] Education - The AI+ education sector is gaining traction, with several companies launching innovative products that are expected to see significant revenue growth [6][63] Medical Beauty - The medical beauty industry is experiencing a shift towards refined operations, with new product launches expected to enhance market dynamics [6][73]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Powell's dovish signal at the Jackson Hole meeting has led to a significant rebound in US stocks, with the market almost fully pricing in a rate cut in September and two cuts within the year [1][7][8] - Key economic data includes initial jobless claims at 235,000, slightly above previous and forecast values, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August at 53.3, exceeding both previous and forecast values [1][7][8] - The report highlights the importance of the upcoming July core PCE inflation data, suggesting that if it comes in below expectations, the trend of rate cut trading in the stock market may continue [1][7] Group 2 - The report tracks the performance of major global asset classes, noting that the Shenzhen Composite Index had the highest increase at +4.57%, while the New Zealand dollar saw the largest decline at -1.92% against the RMB [2][23] - In the equity market, the materials sector in the US saw the largest gain at +5.01%, while the healthcare sector experienced the largest decline at -0.37% [2][33] - The report also indicates that the energy sector in Japan had a significant increase of +18.44%, while the information technology sector faced a decline of -7.54% [2][33] Group 3 - The report provides updates on important global economic data, including a rebound in the Eurozone consumer confidence index and an increase in the UK services PMI [50][60][62] - The Japanese composite PMI also showed an upward trend, indicating a positive outlook for the Japanese economy [62][63] - The report emphasizes the significance of these economic indicators in assessing the overall health of the global economy [50][60][62]