行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 623 元/吨， 周环比+0.5%，内蒙古、山西产地价持平、陕西产地价小涨。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 566.1 万吨，环比+6.7 万吨。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存大涨，秦港库存微涨，截至 6 月 30 日，动力煤库存指数为 194.3（-2.0），同比已转负。非电方面，甲 醇、尿素开工率分别为 88.2%（-3.1pct）和 84.3%（-1.5pct），仍处于 历史同期偏高水平。 截至 7 月 4 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1230 元/吨，周环比持平，山 西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 7 月 4 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日 均产量 73.9 万吨（+0.1 万吨），年同比-3.5%，532 家精煤库存 409.6 万吨（-53.5 万吨），年同比+44.4%；甘其毛都蒙煤通关量 7.7 万吨（-1.9 万吨），年同比-49.0%；日均铁水产量 240.8 万吨（-1.6 万吨），年同 比+0.6%。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格小涨，大型焦化开工 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 07 月 04 日 美国就业"外强中干" ，能否影响降息路径？ ——美国就业数据点评（2025.6） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 美国 6 月新增非农就业表现强劲、失业率走低，美联储短期降息必要 性大幅下降。但私人部门就业有所降温，中期劳动力市场仍需财政刺激。 据当地时间 7 月 3 日公布的最新数据，美国 6 月新增非农就业高达 14.7 万 人，较 5 月多增 0.3 万人，为年内次高单月；此外还分别上修 4 月、5 月新 增非农就业 1.1 万人和 0.5 万人，从而二季度月均新增非农就业达到近 15 万人，较一季度月均大幅多增 3.9 万人。新增就业维持相对强劲的带动下， 美国 6 月失业率在连续三个月持平后下行 0.1 个百分点至 4.1%，与美联储 6 月 FOMC 会议将 25Q4 美国失业率上修 0.1 个百分点至 4.5%的最新预测 财政刺激才可维持热度。 6 月美国劳动力供给减少但时薪增长放缓，短期薪资通胀传导幅度预 计较为温和，但中长期通胀峰值水平将由财政扩张刺激效果和关税未来演 绎方向所共同决定，可能上冲幅度更大。在特朗普政府严厉的移民管控政 策影响下，代 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, TCL Technology [6][78]. Core Views - TCL Technology is positioned as a global leader in semiconductor display and photovoltaic sectors, with significant investments and acquisitions enhancing its competitive edge [2][10]. - The semiconductor display business is experiencing substantial revenue growth and profitability improvements, while the photovoltaic segment is expected to recover [4][59]. Summary by Sections 1. Semiconductor Display and Photovoltaic Leadership - TCL Technology focuses on core business development in semiconductor displays and renewable energy, aiming for global leadership [10]. - TCL Huaxing is a leading player in the semiconductor display market, with significant investments and production capacity [2][25]. 2. Semiconductor Display Business Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 1,043 billion yuan in 2024 for its semiconductor display business, marking a 25% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 62.3 billion yuan [4][19]. - TCL Huaxing ranks second globally in TV panel shipments, with a leading market share in large-size panels [25][29]. - The company is expanding its product offerings in mid-size and small-size displays, achieving significant market shares in various segments, including esports monitors and LTPS technology [3][38]. 3. Photovoltaic Business Outlook - TCL Zhonghuan, the photovoltaic arm, is the global leader in silicon wafer shipments, with a projected output of 125.8 GW in 2024, reflecting a 10.5% increase [59][71]. - The photovoltaic segment is expected to improve as industry conditions stabilize, with a revenue forecast of 284 billion yuan in 2024 [64][71]. 4. Financial Projections and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts revenues of 1,848.61 billion yuan, 2,017.89 billion yuan, and 2,192.17 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 61.57 billion yuan, 90.78 billion yuan, and 104.21 billion yuan [4][74]. - The company's valuation is considered low compared to peers, justifying the "Buy" rating based on projected earnings growth and market position [78].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for June 2025 was 3.368 billion, a decrease of 65% month-on-month. The main board raised 640 million, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board raised 2.497 billion [5][6][12] - A total of 3 new stocks were issued in June, representing a 63% decrease compared to the previous month [6][5] - As of the end of June, there were 50 approved but unissued IPO projects across all A-share sectors, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 49.36 billion. The ChiNext accounted for 28% (14 companies), while the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounted for 34% and 6% respectively [12][12] Group 2 - The average offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of 100 million to 200 million for the main board and ChiNext, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Board had limits mostly in the range of 500 million to 1 billion [13][13] - In June, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 509, 0, and 197 respectively, with a month-on-month decrease of 73% and 100% for the main board and ChiNext [17][17] - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the main board in June was 0.0104% and 0.0094%, down 24% and 28% month-on-month respectively [18][18] Group 3 - The average first-day increase for new stocks on the main board in June was 286% [30][30] - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds in the 100 million to 200 million range contributing +0.188% and those in the 200 million to 300 million range contributing +0.129%. The annualized return for funds of 800 million was 0.368% [32][32] - In June 2025, a total of 3,132 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 6.05 trillion. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, with 1,189 funds, followed by flexible allocation funds with 595 funds [35][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main tone of "moderately loose monetary policy" remains unchanged, and stabilizing growth is still the central bank's primary short - term goal. If economic growth shows no improvement and faces more pressure, a new round of broad monetary policy may be launched [1]. - In July, the large - scale supply of government bonds and tax - payment factors will significantly interfere with the capital market. However, the central bank's support for the capital market is expected to continue, with overnight and 7 - day capital interest rates likely to remain stable [1]. - The supply - demand structure of inter - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) will further improve in July, with the maturity scale of CDs decreasing and the interest rate having room to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Current Situation and Future Concerns - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank made substantial net injections to support cross - quarter liquidity, leading to a divergence in capital prices. Overnight capital interest rates were stable, while 7 - day rates rose significantly, and the liquidity stratification phenomenon was obvious [5]. - The second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting changed the wording, but it doesn't rule out the possibility of broad monetary policy in the third quarter. If the economy doesn't improve, new policies may be introduced [5]. - In July, large government bond supply and tax - payment factors will affect the capital market, but the central bank's support is expected to continue. The overnight capital interest rate may fluctuate around the policy rate, and the 7 - day rate may return to around 1.5% [6]. - It is estimated that in July 2025, government bond issuance will be 2.61 - 2.86 trillion yuan, with net financing of 1.45 - 1.70 trillion yuan, slightly higher than in June. The supply of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds may increase, and new local government special bonds are expected to be the main type in the third quarter [6]. - In July, MLF and buy - out repurchase maturities total 1.5 trillion yuan, more than in June. The central bank's operation method has enhanced its control over medium - and long - term liquidity [10]. - Thanks to the central bank's support, in June, CDs maintained high - volume issuance with stable or decreasing prices. In July, the supply - demand structure of CDs will improve, and the interest rate has room to decline [10]. 3.2 Money Market Interest Rate Tracking - From June 23 to June 27, overnight capital interest rates were stable (DR001 around 1.37%, R001 between 1.44% - 1.46%), while 7 - day rates rose (DR007 from 1.51% to 1.70%, R007 from 1.56% to 1.92%), and the liquidity stratification was obvious [13]. - During this period, the bank's capital lending scale increased, the money fund's lending scale decreased, and the bond market leverage ratio continued to rise [17]. - From June 23 to June 27, bill interest rates first decreased and then increased, with the 3M national - share discount rate and half - year national - share transfer discount rate showing corresponding changes [22]. 3.3 Open Market Operation Tracking - As of June 27, the central bank's total balance of open - market operations was 1168.85 billion yuan, including 202.75 billion yuan in pledged repurchase, 480 billion yuan in buy - out repurchase, and 515 billion yuan in MLF [23]. - From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, with 106.72 billion yuan in pledged repurchase. In June, buy - out repurchase and MLF maturities and net injections were as expected. From June 30 to July 4, pledged repurchase maturities reached 202.75 billion yuan [27]. 3.4 Government Bond Tracking 3.4.1 Government Bond Issuance - From June 23 to June 27, treasury bond issuance was 11.1 billion yuan, and net financing was 11.1 billion yuan; local bond issuance was 64.164 billion yuan, with net financing of 56.0393 billion yuan [33]. - It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, treasury bond issuance will be 0 yuan, with net financing of - 8.015 billion yuan; local bond issuance will be 7.2139 billion yuan, with net financing of 2.1676 billion yuan [33]. 3.4.2 Government Bond Payment - From June 23 to June 27, government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, including 33.1 billion yuan for treasury bonds and 45.881 billion yuan for local bonds. It is estimated that from June 30 to July 4, the net payment will be - 0.594 billion yuan [39]. 3.5 Inter - bank Certificate of Deposit Tracking 3.5.1 Primary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, inter - bank CD issuance was 72.64 billion yuan, with net financing of - 41.15 billion yuan. The maturity scale from June 30 to July 4 was 27.67 billion yuan. By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest issuance; by term type, 3M CDs had the highest issuance [42]. - The overall issuance success rate was 94%. State - owned banks and other banks had a 100% success rate, and 3M CDs had a 95% success rate. The issuance interest rates of all types of banks and terms decreased [42][43]. 3.5.2 Secondary Market of Inter - bank CDs - From June 23 to June 27, despite the tightened cross - quarter liquidity, the yields of secondary - market CDs of all terms increased slightly, and the yield curve was partially inverted [60]. 3.6 Excess Reserve Ratio Tracking - The estimated excess reserve ratio at the end of May 2025 was 0.52%. From June 23 to June 27, the central bank's net injection in open - market operations was 126.72 billion yuan, and government bond net payment was 78.981 billion yuan, increasing the excess reserve scale by 47.739 billion yuan [64].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming summer peak season as a catalyst for the tourism and cultural sectors, highlighting the integration of cultural tourism with IP-driven new consumption logic [2][3] - It suggests focusing on the IP + scenic area concept, particularly in regions like Jiangsu, and recommends companies such as Emei Mountain A, Changbai Mountain, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, and Haichang Ocean Park [3][21] - The report notes the stabilization of second-hand prices in the trendy toy sector, driven by the summer season, while also addressing regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the second-hand market [3][22] - In the gold and jewelry sector, the report highlights the potential for high growth in terminal store efficiency and expansion opportunities for brands targeting high-end and young consumers [4][131] - The beauty and personal care sector is identified as having structural opportunities, with a focus on product innovation and long-term growth potential [5][101] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The report tracks the performance of duty-free operators and suggests focusing on city duty-free store openings to capture inbound tourist spending [14] - It highlights the summer tourism market's preparation, with a predicted peak in hotel guest flow in early August [15][21] 2. Trendy Toys - The report notes a significant year-on-year increase in online sales for the trendy toy sector, with a total of approximately 2,754 million yuan in sales from January to May 2025, reflecting a 61% growth [23] - It emphasizes the strong cultural presence of LABUBU, surpassing the popularity of Nintendo Switch2 and LOL in recent trends [3][27] 3. Gold and Jewelry - The report indicates that gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector reaching 30 billion yuan in May 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.8% [128][131] - It recommends brands like Chaohongji, Laisentongling, and Laopu Gold for their growth potential in high-end markets [131] 4. Beauty and Personal Care - The report identifies significant growth opportunities in the beauty sector driven by product innovation and changing consumer habits, recommending companies like Mao Ge Ping and Shangmei [5][101] - It highlights the successful listing of Ying Tong Holdings as a leading player in the fragrance distribution and brand management sector [68] 5. Medical Aesthetics - The report suggests that the medical aesthetics industry is poised for market share gains due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][61] - It recommends focusing on companies like Jinbo Bio and Sihuan Pharmaceutical for their innovative product pipelines [5][66] 6. Employment and Human Resources - The report notes a stable employment situation with a slight decrease in urban unemployment rates, suggesting a focus on flexible employment leaders [102][105] 7. Sports and Events - The report highlights the ongoing development of outdoor sports and suggests monitoring the "Su Chao" theme for investment opportunities in related companies [111]

华福证券 2025 年 7 月 1 日 医疗与消费周报——2025 中国生命科学行业概 览 投资要点： ➢ 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业均录得正收益，表现良好。 2、展望未来，得益于政府的大力提供支持、资金的持续投入以及 监管改革不断简化审批流程和促进创新，中国生命科学企业的交易活 动前景较为乐观，预计 2024 年后将出现强劲增长。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、脑机接口医疗器械首批国标启动制定—— 2025.06.30 2、新能源价格见底或是价格复苏的重要信号—— 产业经济周观点——2025.06.30 3、沪指创年内新高后怎么看？——2025.06.29 ➢ 风险提示 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 策 略 研 究 策 略 定 期 报 告 华福证券 | 1 医疗新观察 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 2 医药板块行情回顾（6.23—6.27） | 4 | | 3 医疗产业热点跟踪 | 5 | | 4 风险提示 | 6 | 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读 ...

Manufacturing PMI Insights - June manufacturing PMI slightly improved by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[2] - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7%, indicating ongoing export challenges despite temporary easing in US-China trade tensions[3] - New orders index increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2%, with consumer goods PMI improving by 0.2 percentage points to 50.4%[3] Inventory and Production Trends - Finished goods inventory index surged by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1%, but annualized index fell by 0.1 percentage points to a low of 47.6%[4] - Production index rose by 0.3 percentage points to 51.0%, reflecting a temporary improvement in production driven by consumption and export demand[4] Economic Outlook and Risks - The rebound in manufacturing PMI is attributed to subsidies stimulating durable consumption and a second wave of export efforts[4] - Future uncertainties hinge on the domestic real estate market's recovery and the potential impact of the US tax reduction plan on local production and consumption[4] - There is a risk of additional interest rate cuts if the real estate market continues to struggle, with potential for increased subsidies for durable goods[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" for the industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The draft of the Medical Security Law focuses on financing mechanisms, the division of responsibilities among stakeholders, and management supervision, indicating a clearer boundary of responsibilities in future medical insurance operations [5] - The overall number of articles in the draft has been reduced from 70 to 50, with significant changes in expression, deletions, and additions [3][4] Summary by Sections Changes in Expression - Article 2 removes content related to price management, bidding procurement, and medical services - Article 12 adds that the standards for basic medical insurance benefits should support the development of a hierarchical diagnosis and treatment system - Article 15 encourages employers to establish supplementary medical insurance for employees - Article 20 introduces principles of balancing income and expenditure, timely adjustments to financing or benefit policies in case of payment difficulties, and promotes provincial coordination of basic medical insurance [4] Deletions - Several articles related to commercial health insurance, charitable medical assistance, long-term care insurance, and drug collection functions have been removed [5] Additions - New articles emphasize the responsibility of citizens for their health, the establishment of a long-term mechanism for insurance participation, and the need for evidence-based medicine and economic evaluations for drugs in the insurance catalog [5]

行 基础化工 2025 年 06 月 30 日 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：小米 YU7 正式上市，亿纬锂能将在 2026 年推出全固态电池 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周（2025.06.23-2025.06.29），Wind 新材料指数收报 3795.82 点，环比上涨 5.12%。其中，涨幅前五的有新亚强(29.74%)、长阳科技 (15.75%)、硅宝科技(14.7%)、三祥新材(12.17%)、皇马科技(11.42%)；跌幅前 五的有润阳科技(-9.52%)、博迁新材(-3.04%)、凯赛生物(-1.05%)、晶瑞股份 (-0.63%)、蓝晓科技(0.02%)。六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收 报 6144.52 点，环比上涨 4.01%；申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1070.34 点，环比上涨 3.11%；中信三级行业有机硅材料指数收报 5880.86 点，环比上 涨 4.85%；中信三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1198.75 点，环比上涨 8.85%；中信 三级行业锂电指数收报 1917.07 点，环比上涨 9.05%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指 数收报 ...