Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated a slow reduction of its ETF and REITs holdings, planning to sell ¥3.3 trillion and ¥50 billion annually, respectively, while holding ¥37.2 trillion and ¥655 billion as of August[2][12] - Japan's overall CPI and core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) in August were 2.7% and 3.3%, down by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a potential peak in inflation[2][15] - Concerns about trade environment, corporate profits, and consumer confidence suggest a low probability of the BoJ raising interest rates within the year[2][15] Group 2: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) paused interest rate cuts, maintaining a rate of 4.0%, after previously cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2023[3][18] - UK inflation rates for August were 3.7% and 3.8% for overall and core CPI, respectively, remaining high despite a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[3][18] - The BoE reduced its planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months to avoid rapid increases in the interest rate curve[3][23] Group 3: US Economic Indicators - US retail sales in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, a significant recovery of 0.9 percentage points from July, marking the highest growth since April[4][24] - Initial jobless claims in the second week of September fell to 231,000, down by 33,000 from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in the labor market[4][28] - The recent tax cuts may sustain high consumer demand in the coming months, potentially boosting the labor market[4][29]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The release of the draft national standard for intelligent connected vehicles establishes a clear safety baseline for products in this sector [2][12] - The "Qijing" brand, a collaboration between GAC Group and Huawei, aims to integrate advanced intelligent technologies into high-end smart electric vehicles, enhancing competitiveness in the market [3][13] Market Performance - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the automotive sector increased by 3%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.4 percentage points [14] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 26.3%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [14] Sales Data - From September 1 to 14, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 732,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4% but a month-on-month increase of 6% [5][35] - New energy passenger vehicle retail sales during the same period were 438,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [5][35] Key Data - In August 2025, total automotive sales were 2.857 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [41] - The inventory level of automotive dealers was at a reasonable range, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of 1.31 [38] Industry News - The China Automobile Association is promoting a "60-day payment term" for suppliers, with major automakers responding positively [63] - Zeekr Technology's shareholders approved a merger agreement with Geely Automobile, which will make Zeekr a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely [66]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][16] Core Insights - Oklo, a key player in the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) sector, saw a significant stock increase of 63.5% over the week, driven by a surge in investment interest in SMR technology [3][4] - The demand for energy is expected to rise dramatically, with projections indicating that by 2035, the total computing power in society may increase by 100,000 times, leading to a substantial rise in electricity consumption from data centers [4] - SMRs are characterized by their inherent safety, lower investment requirements, rapid returns, flexible deployment, and wide application scenarios, making them a promising energy solution for the growing needs of data centers and AI [5] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include: 1. Jingye Intelligent: Collaborating with Zhejiang University on micro-reactor/SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of global AI demand and energy transition [5] 2. Jiadian Co.: Leading in the nuclear power sector with its helium fan as the only power device for the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor [5] 3. Guoguang Electric: Key components for the ITER project [5] 4. Lanshi Heavy Industry: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [5] 5. Kexin Electromechanical: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products and replacing imports with new fuel transport containers [5] 6. Hailu Heavy Industry: Services for various reactor types including third and fourth generation reactors [5] 7. Jiangsu Shentong: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new nuclear power projects [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture short-term valuation trends in the convertible bond market by identifying upward or downward momentum in valuation levels[23][27][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 5-day moving average (MA5) of the valuation index[37] - Introduce a buffer to reduce noise: $ MA5_{buf} = MA5 \times (1 + 5/10000) $[37] - Define valuation momentum as: $ Mom = value - MA5_{buf} $[37] - Signal generation: - $ Mom > 0 $: Indicates positive momentum, suggesting a buy/add position[37] - $ Mom \leq 0 $: Indicates insufficient momentum, suggesting hold/reduce position[37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies short-term valuation trends but faces challenges with high turnover rates, making real-world implementation difficult[38][42][50] 2. Model Name: Cross-Sectional Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines valuation levels and valuation momentum to optimize timing signals for convertible bond investments[46][50] - **Model Construction Process**: - Valuation grouping: Divide the valuation index into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on historical percentiles[19][46] - Momentum grouping: Divide valuation momentum into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on historical trends[23][46] - Cross-sectional analysis: Analyze the interaction between valuation levels and momentum to generate signals[46] - Final signal: - Positive momentum ($ Mom > 0 $) and high valuation ($ Q5 $): High allocation to convertible bonds[47][50] - Other scenarios: Adjust allocation based on specific group interactions[46][50] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy reduces turnover in high-valuation scenarios, improving practical feasibility while maintaining performance[50][51] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Annualized Return**: 21.13%[57] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 19.69%[57] - **Annualized Volatility**: 17.85%[57] - **Win Rate**: 47.20%[57] - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.07[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.11[57] 2. Cross-Sectional Timing Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 18.29%[66] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 6.74%[66] - **Annualized Volatility**: 11.32%[66] - **Win Rate**: 48.10%[66] - **Calmar Ratio**: 2.72[66] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.45[66] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the short-term trend of valuation levels to identify potential price movements in convertible bonds[23][27][37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define valuation momentum as: $ Mom = value - MA5 $[23][27] - Group data into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on momentum levels[23][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive momentum (Q5) is associated with higher short-term returns, validating the hypothesis that upward valuation trends attract inflows and drive prices higher[25][29] 2. Factor Name: Valuation Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation level of convertible bonds over a rolling 250-day window to assess overvaluation or undervaluation[19][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the valuation index for each day[14] - Determine the percentile rank of the current valuation relative to the past 250 days[19] - Group data into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on percentile ranks[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: High valuation levels (Q5) are associated with lower long-term returns but can still generate positive short-term returns due to market exuberance[19][46] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **1-Day Return**: - Q1: -0.05%[24] - Q2: 0.00%[24] - Q3: 0.01%[24] - Q4: 0.04%[24] - Q5: 0.14%[24] - **1-Year Return**: - Q1: 5.67%[24] - Q2: 6.53%[24] - Q3: 5.78%[24] - Q4: 5.08%[24] - Q5: 3.83%[24] 2. Valuation Percentile - **1-Week Return**: - Q1: 0.17%[19] - Q2: 0.32%[19] - Q3: 0.16%[19] - Q4: -0.13%[19] - Q5: 0.19%[19] - **1-Year Return**: - Q1: 12.57%[20] - Q2: 9.21%[20] - Q3: 5.35%[20] - Q4: 2.52%[20] - Q5: 2.21%[20]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "stronger than the market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The completion of the last concrete pour for the Chang-Jiu High-Speed Railway's main bridge over the Gan River marks a significant milestone, enhancing the high-speed rail network in China and supporting regional economic development [2][4]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has achieved a milestone of over 1 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) in cargo shipments this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 72.5%, indicating robust growth in logistics and transportation capabilities [3]. - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for railway expansion, aiming for a total railway mileage of approximately 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which includes 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, creating substantial market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The Chang-Jiu High-Speed Railway, part of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed rail network, will connect Nanchang and Jiujiang, covering a distance of 138 kilometers with a design speed of 350 km/h, contributing to the modernization of the transportation system in Jiangxi Province [2]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has expanded its operational routes to 24, significantly enhancing the logistics network in western China, with a focus on major ports and cities [3]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a goal for railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with high-speed rail accounting for 50,000 kilometers, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the rail transit equipment sector [4]. - The projected construction of approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail from 2026 to 2035, presents vast market potential for companies involved in rail transit equipment [4]. Recommended Companies - China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong position in the industry [4]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A top provider of rail transit control systems, recognized for its technological advancements [4]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [4]. - Sifang Control: A key supplier in the field of high-speed rail monitoring, focusing on safety assurance [4]. - Shenzhou High-Speed Railway: A leader in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients [4]. - Huifeng Technology: Specializes in rail transit operation and maintenance equipment, offering integrated solutions [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, an increase of 102% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that cost advantages are helping to offset the pressure from lithium prices, with expectations for increased production from mining operations [1][5]. - The company has confirmed an investment income of 235 million yuan from SQM, marking a return to profitability compared to the previous year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 20 million yuan [2]. - Lithium concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 340,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 2.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was 725 USD/ton, down 8.3% from the previous quarter [3]. - The cash production cost per ton in Q2 2025 was 366 AUD, an increase of 7.3% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower ore grades [3]. Production and Cost Guidance - The company has provided production guidance for FY25, estimating an actual output of 1.479 million tons, with cash costs expected to be 325 AUD/ton, aligning with previous expectations [4]. - The production capacity of the lithium hydroxide plant in Australia is gradually increasing, with Q2 2025 output at 2,126 tons, a 36% increase quarter-on-quarter [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.105 billion yuan, 1.556 billion yuan, and 1.790 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 美联储时隔 9 个月重启降息，基于本次决策上修了对经济增长和核心通胀 宏 观 点 评 的展望，点阵图显示当前美联储内部对降息的讨论十分胶着。当地时间 9 月 17 日下午，美联储召开本年度倒数第三次 FOMC 会议并决议降息 25BP，本次 降息后联邦基金利率目标区间下调至 4%-4.25%。美联储在本次声明中删除此 前自五月以来所称的"尽管净出口动荡对经济数据造成影响"，新增"就业增 长放缓，失业率有所上升"，以及"（委员会）判断劳动力市场下行风险已经上 升"的描述。基于本次降息可能带来的影响，在经济预测总结（SEP）中，美 联储将 25Q4、26Q4 和 27Q4 美国实际 GDP 同比预测分别上修了 0.2、0.2 和 0.1 个百分点；并将 26Q4 核心 PCE 预测上修 0.2 个百分点；同时，分别下修 26Q4 和 27Q4 美国失业率预测 0.1 个百分点。总体来看，一定程度上凸显美联 储对降息后美国经济复苏的信心。本次会议点阵图显示，19 名与会者中有 9 名美联储官员认为年内最多再降息一次，10 名认为应降息两次或更多，指向当 前美联储内部对降息幅度的 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Energy with a target price of 11.52 CNY, reflecting a valuation premium based on its integrated coal-electricity business model [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - Shaanxi Energy is positioned as a leading integrated coal-electricity enterprise backed by the Shaanxi Investment Group, leveraging regional coal resources to implement a coal-electricity integration strategy [1][16]. - The company is expected to experience revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenue growth rates of -13.1%, +15.7%, and +15.1% for 2025-2027, respectively [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shaanxi Energy is a major player in the coal-electricity sector, focusing on efficient coal extraction and electricity generation, with a significant portion of its revenue derived from electricity and coal sales [2][19]. Coal Business - The company has a coal production capacity of 30 million tons per year, with 24 million tons currently in production and 6 million tons under construction. Future capacity could reach 46 million tons per year [3][39]. - The coal business generated 48.4 billion CNY in revenue in 2024, reflecting an 18.5% year-on-year increase, driven by optimized sales strategies [43][27]. Electricity Business - The company has a total approved coal power generation capacity of 17.25 million kilowatts, with 11.23 million kilowatts currently operational and 4.02 million kilowatts under construction [4][67]. - The electricity segment is expected to benefit from the commissioning of new power plants, contributing to revenue growth and maintaining a competitive edge in the market [66][72]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 23.16 billion CNY, with a net profit of 3.01 billion CNY, indicating a 17.7% increase in net profit year-on-year [22][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.72 CNY, with a gradual increase to 0.96 CNY by 2027 [4][5]. Dividend Potential - The company is noted for its strong cash flow, which supports a stable and potentially increasing dividend payout, appealing to income-focused investors [5][6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [9] Core Insights - The integration of AI in gaming enhances the entire production process, leading to significant improvements in efficiency and content quality [2][3][4][5][6] - AI tools facilitate creative processes, including content generation, interactive design, gameplay optimization, and narrative production, resulting in faster and more effective game development [3][4] - The use of AI in art and modeling accelerates creative workflows, reduces repetitive tasks, and enhances visual quality, contributing to a more immersive gaming experience [4][5] - AI programming tools streamline game development and testing, allowing for rapid prototyping and bug detection, thus improving overall development efficiency [6] Summary by Sections AI in Game Planning - AI empowers the game planning phase by enabling rapid generation of creative content, including world-building and character dialogues, which enhances production efficiency [3] AI in Game Art - AI significantly accelerates the art creation process by generating diverse design concepts and optimizing visual elements, thus improving the overall aesthetic quality of games [4] AI in Game Modeling - AI tools enhance the efficiency of modeling and animation processes, allowing for quick completion of complex tasks and integration into existing production pipelines [5] AI in Game Programming - AI solutions in programming enable developers to create gameplay mechanics without extensive coding, while also automating testing processes to identify and resolve issues quickly [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Giant Network, G-bits, K-Young Network, Perfect World, and others for potential investment opportunities in the AI gaming sector [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the construction and decoration industry Core Insights - The construction sector is experiencing a slowdown in revenue and performance, with a reported revenue of 4 trillion yuan in H1 2025, down 5.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 91.06 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [2][14] - The infrastructure sector shows a decline in revenue and performance, with total revenue of 3.8 trillion yuan in H1 2025, down 5.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 90.12 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [3][40] - The steel structure and engineering consulting services sectors are under significant pressure, with revenues of 36.8 billion yuan and 43.94 billion yuan respectively, showing minor growth and decline [4][19] - The renovation and landscaping sectors have seen a narrowing of losses, with revenues of 37.74 billion yuan and 7.51 billion yuan respectively, although they still report losses [4][20] Summary by Sections Construction Sector - The construction sector's total revenue for H1 2025 is 4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.9% year-on-year, with a net profit of 91.06 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year [2][14] - The sector's operating cash flow shows a seasonal outflow of -494.38 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 20.86 billion yuan compared to the previous year [33] - The asset-liability ratio stands at 77.5%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, while the return on equity (ROE) is at 3.5%, down 0.47 percentage points year-on-year [38] Infrastructure Sector - The infrastructure sector's total revenue for H1 2025 is 3.8 trillion yuan, down 5.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 90.12 billion yuan, down 7.4% year-on-year [3][40] - The cash flow for the infrastructure sector shows a net outflow of -482.91 billion yuan, with state-owned enterprises facing the most pressure [60] - The asset-liability ratio for the infrastructure sector is 77.9%, an increase of 0.73 percentage points year-on-year, with a notable improvement in private enterprises [66] Steel Structure and Engineering Consulting - The steel structure sector reported a revenue of 36.8 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.7% year-on-year, while the engineering consulting sector reported a revenue of 43.94 billion yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year [4][19] - Both sectors are experiencing pressure on profitability, with net profits of 0.99 billion yuan and 1.86 billion yuan respectively, showing declines [4][19] Renovation and Landscaping - The renovation sector reported a revenue of 37.74 billion yuan, down 18.9% year-on-year, while the landscaping sector reported a revenue of 7.51 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [4][20] - Losses in both sectors have narrowed, with net losses of 0.47 billion yuan and 1.43 billion yuan respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [4][20]