Group 1 - The non-farm payroll data for October showed a weak increase of only 12,000 jobs, significantly below the market expectation of 113,000 jobs, leading to a short-term drop in the dollar index but a subsequent rise in both the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields [1][2][35] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1%, indicating that the weak job growth does not necessarily reflect a deterioration in the economic fundamentals [1][2][35] - The core PCE inflation rate for September was reported at 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%, which contributes to the Fed's reluctance to implement significant rate cuts despite the weak employment data [1][2][35] Group 2 - Major tech companies such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple reported earnings that mostly exceeded market expectations, but their stock prices faced pressure due to high valuations and election risks [2][38] - The upcoming U.S. election results are expected to influence market expectations regarding inflation and future Fed policy, with potential for continued high volatility in overseas assets until the election outcome is known [2][38] Group 3 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 46.5, lower than both the previous value of 47.2 and the expected 47.6, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2][39] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending October 26 were reported at 216,000, down from the previous week's 228,000, while continuing claims for the week ending October 19 were 1.862 million, down from 1.888 million [2][39] Group 4 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with CBOT soybean oil rising by 5.07%, while IPE crude oil fell by 3.90%, indicating volatility in commodity markets [3][58] - The Nikkei 225 index saw a modest increase of 0.37%, while the South Korean index dropped by 1.58%, reflecting varied performance across global equity markets [3][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor sector [3] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry has shown significant performance improvement in Q3 2024, driven by market demand recovery, accelerated localization, and terminal innovation [1][2] - The overall revenue for semiconductor-related listed companies reached 377.69 billion yuan in Q1-Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.84%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 42.58% to 25.73 billion yuan [1] - In Q3 2024 alone, the semiconductor sector achieved a revenue of 137.15 billion yuan, up 20.88% year-on-year and 6.09% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 9.74 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 46.73% [1][2] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic sector index fell by 2.18% during the week of October 28 to November 1, 2024, while the ChiNext index dropped by 5.14% and the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.68% [8] - The semiconductor sector experienced the largest decline among electronic sub-sectors, with a drop of 4.27% [10] Semiconductor Sector - The IC design segment saw revenue of 38.69 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 27.75% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 244.07% [2] - The semiconductor equipment segment reported revenue of 18.60 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.84%, with net profit rising by 57.82% [2] - The report highlights the potential for continued growth in the semiconductor industry, driven by innovations in AI, HPC, and other technologies [2] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in wafer manufacturing and testing, such as SMIC, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and JCET, as well as upstream equipment and materials suppliers like North Huachuang and Zhongwei [2] Industry Dynamics - The global chip market is projected to grow by 18.8% in 2024, reaching $629.8 billion, driven by AI demand [19] - China's integrated circuit production reached 315.6 billion units in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a 26% year-on-year increase [20]

华福证券 基础化工 2024 年 11 月 03 日 नी 基础化工 新材料周报：2024年全球芯片市场将增长18.8%， 美国宣布禁止向中国半导体、AI、量子领域投资 投资要点： 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3520.68 点，环比下跌 0.4%。 其中，涨幅前五的有瑞丰高材(24.6%)、阳谷华泰(19.97%)、道恩股份(10.01%)、 斯迪克(8.42%)、阿科力(7.09%)；跌幅前五的有长阳科技(-12.98%)、合盛硅业 (-12%)、福斯特(-11.32%)、阿拉丁(-9.33%)、金宏气体(-9.04%)。六个子行业中， 申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 6118.54 点，环比下跌 7.06%；申万三级行 业显示器件材料指数收报 1140.78 点，环比上涨 5.11%；中信三级行业有机硅 材料指数收报 6009.26 点，环比下跌 9.31%；中信三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1205.68 点，环比上涨 0.22%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1888.22 点，环比下 跌 4.5%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1672.3 点，环比上涨 2.2%。 2024 年全球芯 ...

煤炭 2024 年 11 月 03 日 煤炭 供暖陆续开启产地先行上涨，关注后续增量政策 投资要点： 动力煤 截至 2024 年 11 月 1 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 848 元/吨， 周环比下跌 7 元/吨，周跌幅 0.8%。陕蒙产地价格上涨，晋陕蒙三省煤 矿开工率为 83.8%，环比+0.5pct。需求方面，当前电厂日耗出现季节 性下滑，随着北方天气转冷，供暖逐步开启，动力煤产地价格率先上 涨有望带动港口价格反弹；非电方面，甲醇与尿素开工率均处于历史 同期偏高水平，截至 10 月 31 日，甲醇开工率为 89.7%，周环比+0.6pct； 截至 10 月 30 日，尿素开工率为 84.4%，周环比-0.8pct。 焦煤 截至 11 月 1 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1740 元/吨，环比下跌 20 元/吨，山西产地价小跌 1.8%，其他产地价格表现相对平稳。当前正逐 步进入开工淡季，需求存在回落可能性，但宏观政策出现明显改善， 财政政策加码，焦煤价格无需悲观。本周焦炭价格持平、螺纹钢价格 小涨，截至 11 月 1 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦出厂价 1850 元/吨，环比 持平，螺纹钢现货价格 35 ...

华福证券 行 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 农林牧渔 2024 年 11 月 03 日 农林牧渔 短期猪价震荡回调，关注消费端增量表现 投资要点： ➢ 生猪养殖：短期猪价震荡回调，关注消费端增量表现。1）市场出栏节 奏偏快，猪价震荡下调。周内集团场加快出栏，市场供应节奏偏快，需求 端受降温带动有所增量，但幅度有限，猪价偏弱运行。11 月 1 日猪价 17.22 元/kg，周环比-0.23 元/kg。10 月中下旬二育情绪回落，10 月 20-31 日二育 销量占比为 1.92%，较前十天减少 2.45pct。2）屠企日宰量周环比+2.5%， 关注腌腊及冬至备货增量预期。随多地气温下降，终端消费提升，周内宰 量级水平维持中高位运行，11 月 1 日屠企宰量 15.43 万头，周环比+2.50%。 10 月 31 日全国冻品库容率 15.96%，周环比-0.07pct。3）集团出栏节奏加 快，均重连续 2 周下滑。上周行业出栏均重 125.50 公斤，周环比-0.57 公 斤。其中集团猪场体重下降 0.95 公斤；散户体重增加明显，主要系受近期 肥标价差支撑，压栏惜售情绪较强。前期大猪抛压释放后，市场大猪存 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [3][47]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong sales performance in the new energy vehicle sector during October, driven by government incentives and promotional activities from dealers. BYD achieved over 500,000 units sold in October, with a year-to-date total of 3.25 million units, marking a 36.5% year-on-year increase [2][8]. - The European Union has imposed anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which could impact the competitiveness of these vehicles in the European market. Tariffs range from 7.8% to 35.3% depending on the manufacturer [10][11]. - The automotive sector outperformed the broader market indices, with a year-to-date increase of 11.4%, ranking 7th among 31 sectors [12][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Highlights - October saw a significant increase in new energy vehicle sales, with BYD leading the market. Other companies like Li Auto and Leap Motor also reported substantial growth in deliveries [8][9]. Market Performance - From October 28 to November 1, the automotive sector declined by 0.4%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.7%, indicating a relative outperformance of 1.3 percentage points [12][14]. - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 11.4%, placing it 7th among all sectors [12]. Key Industry Data - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from October 1-27 reached 1.812 million units, a 9% increase year-on-year. New energy vehicle retail sales were 946,000 units, up 49% year-on-year [21][22]. - Wholesale data for the same period showed 1.978 million passenger vehicles sold, a 4% increase year-on-year, while new energy vehicle wholesale sales reached 1.047 million units, up 45% year-on-year [21][22]. Industry News - The report mentions new policies from the National Administration and the Central Management Bureau to promote the use of new energy vehicles in government agencies [40]. - Geely has launched the new EM-i hybrid technology, which will debut in the Galaxy Starship 7 model [41]. - XPeng's flying car is set for its global debut on November 12 [42].

华福证券 证 券 研 究 报 告 计算机 2024 年 11 月 03 日 नोर 计算机 ChatGPT 上线实时搜索功能，Google 开发「代 操作」AI 功能 投资要点： 本周 AI 新闻速递 国际 AI：（1）ChatGPT 上线实时搜索功能，预计数月内全面免 费开放。（2）Meta 也在开发 AI 搜索引擎。（3）Google 也在开发可 以帮用户「代操作」设备的 AI。（4）Waymo 再融资 56 亿美元，估值 飙升至 450 亿美元。 国内 AI：（1）安克创新组建机器人团队，由小米智驾前量产负 责人负责。（1）旷视科技扩张智驾业务。 团队成员 分析师： 钱劲宇(S0210524040006) QJY3773@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、英特尔携手 AMD，组建 X86 生态咨询小组— —2024.10.20 2、特斯拉发布 Robotaxi，AMD 召开 Advancing AI 发布会——2024.10.13 3、大行情加大重视计算机板块，特斯拉"WE ROBOT"发布会开启预热——2024.09.29 本周 AI 数据更新： 海外应用看，海外应用看，20241025-2024 ...

Group 1 - Recent economic data indicates strong performance in China's midstream manufacturing and resilience in the US economy [1][12] - The trend of economic expansion in China is likely to be established, with mild recovery corresponding to small external shocks and strong stimulus in response to significant external shocks [1][12] - The adjustment of China's globalization path is expected to shift from price advantages to sustainable domestic demand expansion and accelerated Belt and Road cooperation [1][15] Group 2 - The report suggests a mid-term strategy to increase allocation to Belt and Road-related central state-owned enterprises, while also monitoring the potential restart of the debt cycle [1][15] - Long-term core asset styles are favored, particularly in semiconductor equipment, packaging and thermal management, military industry, automotive lithium batteries, renewable energy exports, and gold [1][15] Group 3 - Industrial enterprise profit growth has significantly declined, with a year-on-year decrease of 27.1% in September, largely due to price and profit margin pressures [10] - Midstream manufacturing has shown strong performance, benefiting from relatively stable prices and less deterioration in profit margins compared to other sectors [10][11] - The manufacturing PMI for October indicates a potential improvement in prices, suggesting a recovery in industrial enterprise pricing [12][15] Group 4 - The US core PCE inflation remains sticky, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in September, indicating resilience in the US economy [15][20] - Actual consumption in the US shows strength, particularly in core services, contrasting with weaker growth in core goods consumption [15][20] Group 5 - The market has shown significant differentiation, with the STAR 50 index leading gains, while the Shanghai Composite Index has declined by 1.7% [23] - The trading characteristics indicate a preference for small-cap growth stocks, with high beta and heavily financed companies leading the market [23][26]

Recent Insights - The pharmaceutical index this week saw only the pharmaceutical commercial sector recording positive returns, while other sectors experienced negative returns, indicating a general underperformance [1] - The 2024 medical insurance negotiations concluded with 162 drugs involved, of which 117 were outside the insurance catalog and 45 were within it, with a pass rate of less than 50%, reflecting stricter entry standards, particularly for innovative drugs and rare disease medications [1][7] - The average price reduction expected from the negotiations is close to 70%, aimed at alleviating patient burdens and promoting drug sales growth, with results anticipated in November and the new drug catalog to be implemented in January 2025 [1][14] Medical Insurance Negotiation Insights - The 2024 medical insurance negotiations included 162 generic drugs, with a focus on innovative drugs, especially those related to oncology, metabolism, neurology, and rare diseases, indicating an increased emphasis on innovative treatments [7] - Successful negotiations are expected to have a profound impact on patients, pharmaceutical companies, and the healthcare system, optimizing resource allocation and promoting sustainable development of the medical insurance system [1][14] Pharmaceutical Sector Performance Review - In the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, the top-performing sub-sectors this week were pharmaceutical commercial (+1.37%) and traditional Chinese medicine II (-0.79%), while the worst performers were biological products (-4.44%) and medical services (-4.76%) [15] - The valuation levels for the chemical pharmaceutical sector were the highest at 59.21 times, while the pharmaceutical commercial sector had a valuation of 20.28 times, indicating varying investor sentiment across different segments [15] Sales Growth of Innovative Drugs - The core objective of the medical insurance negotiations is to lower drug prices to increase market volume, thereby reducing the economic burden on patients. For instance, the sales of Irofulimab reached 1.141 billion RMB in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 134.7% [10] - The successful inclusion of drugs in the medical insurance catalog is expected to rapidly expand market share and accelerate sales growth, aiding companies in recovering R&D costs and funding future innovations [10][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy industry [3] Core Views - The electric transportation sector shows strong performance with lithium battery deliveries exceeding expectations during the peak season, and production is expected to continue increasing in November [3][10] - The photovoltaic sector has seen a significant increase in installed capacity, with 160.88 GW added in the first three quarters of 2024, and major component manufacturers have collectively raised prices [4][17] - The wind power sector is experiencing high demand, with new offshore wind projects being initiated and significant sales contracts signed for wind turbine equipment [25][27] - The energy storage sector has seen a cumulative installation of 61 GWh in the first three quarters, with improvements in safety performance for new grid-connected entities [5][32] Summary by Sections 1. Electric Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - October saw impressive electric vehicle deliveries, with notable increases from various manufacturers, including XPeng and BYD [10][11] - November production is expected to rise, with significant increases in lithium battery production across various categories [11][12] - Upcoming low-altitude economic events are anticipated to catalyze further industry growth [12] 2. Photovoltaic Sector - The first three quarters of 2024 saw 160.88 GW of new photovoltaic installations, with a year-on-year increase of 22% for centralized installations [17][18] - Major component manufacturers have raised prices, indicating a potential recovery in profitability after a period of price competition [19][21] - The market is expected to stabilize as new regulations promote healthy development in distributed photovoltaic projects [18] 3. Wind Power Sector - Shanghai has initiated a major offshore wind power project, aiming for significant capacity additions [25][26] - The China Shipbuilding Group has begun bidding for a large offshore wind project, indicating ongoing investment in the sector [26] - SANY Heavy Industry has secured substantial overseas wind turbine contracts, reflecting strong international demand [27] 4. Energy Storage Sector - A total of 61 GWh of new energy storage capacity was installed in the first three quarters, with significant contributions from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang [32][33] - The National Energy Administration has emphasized improving safety standards for new grid-connected entities [34] - The energy storage sector is expected to benefit from increasing demand in both domestic and international markets [37] 5. Power Equipment and Industrial Control Sector - The State Grid's fifth batch of ultra-high voltage projects has achieved a total bid amount of 8.738 billion yuan [41][42] - The Southern Power Grid has announced a second batch of metering product bids totaling 4.471 billion yuan [44] - The manufacturing PMI has returned to an expansionary phase, indicating positive trends in the industrial sector [47]