Group 1 - The global oral beauty market reached USD 6.5 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow to USD 15 billion by 2032, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for approximately 40% of the market share [2][6] - The Chinese oral beauty market is projected to exceed RMB 25 billion by 2025, with functional foods becoming mainstream [2][6] - Online sales in the oral beauty sector have seen a rapid growth rate of 24.2% over the past three years, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [2][6] Group 2 - The collagen and hyaluronic acid markets are significant, with the Chinese market for collagen expected to reach RMB 173.8 billion by 2027 [6][12] - Emerging ingredients such as NMN and PQQ show potential for growth, reflecting evolving consumer preferences for health and beauty benefits [2][6] - Product innovation in dosage forms, such as gummies and jellies, is becoming a new trend, with brands focusing on building trust and communication mechanisms to enhance competitiveness [12] Group 3 - The synthetic biology market was valued at USD 17 billion in 2023 and is expected to grow to USD 50 billion by 2028, highlighting the increasing importance of innovative technologies in the industry [6][7] - The report emphasizes the need for brands to establish credibility through third-party certifications and to develop robust internal efficacy evaluation systems to support product claims [12] - Collaboration with top ingredient suppliers and expert endorsements is crucial for enhancing product quality and consumer trust [12]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The home medical device sector, particularly home ventilators, has significant growth potential due to low penetration rates and a large patient base for COPD and OSA, with over 1.5 billion global patients. Early intervention in chronic disease management could save approximately 150 billion yuan in medical expenses [4][8] - The U.S. ventilator market is expected to continue growing post-pandemic, driven by a well-established insurance reimbursement system and economic factors. The current diagnosis rate for OSA in the U.S. is only about 20%, indicating room for growth [4][31] - The competitive landscape is shifting as domestic manufacturers improve product performance and cost-effectiveness, leading to increased market share. Domestic brands like Yihua Jiaye have rapidly gained market share, reaching 17.7% globally and 25.8% domestically by 2022 [4][47] Summary by Sections Home Ventilator Market Outlook - The home ventilator market is projected to grow significantly, with the Chinese market expected to reach 3.33 billion yuan by 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 22% from 2021 [4][31] - The global market for home non-invasive ventilators is anticipated to reach $5.58 billion by 2025, with a CAGR of 15.5% from 2020 to 2025 [31] Competitive Landscape - Domestic manufacturers are increasingly competitive, with product performance now comparable to imported brands. The three main competitive advantages for home ventilators are brand strength, product performance, and after-sales service [4][44] - The market share of domestic brands is expected to continue rising due to improved product quality and competitive pricing [4][47] Review of ResMed - ResMed has established itself as a global leader in the ventilator market, benefiting from early technological advancements and a supportive market environment in the U.S. [4][63] - The company's revenue is shifting from equipment sales to consumables, indicating a growing market for replacement parts like masks [4][63] Beneficiary Companies - Companies to watch include: - Meihua Medical: A leading precision medical device manufacturer with a strong recovery in orders [4][68] - Yihua Jiaye: A domestic leader in home ventilators with a global presence and recent agreements to expand into new markets [4][70] - Yuyue Medical: A major player in home medical devices, focusing on high-end product breakthroughs [4][68]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of significant policies at the end of September is expected to accelerate the improvement of second-hand housing pressure, gradually transmitting to newly built and second-hand homes, promoting a stabilization in the real estate market in the fourth quarter [7] - The report suggests focusing on leading developers such as China Merchants Shekou, Poly Developments, and others, as well as regional state-owned enterprises [7] Market Performance - On October 8, the CSI 300 Index rose by 5.9%, while the Shenwan Real Estate Index increased by 2.3%. The residential development, commercial real estate, industrial real estate, and property management sectors saw increases of 1.9%, 0.8%, 6.7%, and 7.1% respectively [2] - The top five stocks in the real estate sector by percentage increase were: - TeFa Service: 20.00% - Xinhu Zhongbao: 10.19% - Greenland Holdings: 10.10% - Hefei Urban Construction: 10.05% - Zhangjiang Hi-Tech: 10.01% The top five stocks by percentage decrease were: - Shenzhen Housing A: -6.16% - Konggang Shares: -4.67% - Binjiang Group: -4.14% - Yunnan City Investment: -4.14% - Shoukai Shares: -3.93% [3][11] Transaction Data - Last week, a total of 792 units were sold, representing a week-on-week decrease of 83.6%. The transaction area totaled 71,000 square meters, down 87.4% from the previous week [4][14] - The transaction volume in first-tier cities decreased by 73.3%, second-tier cities by 84.9%, and third-tier cities by 92.9% [4][14] Industry News - Shanghai issued implementation opinions on the construction of affordable housing, mandating that new land sales for residential projects must include at least 5% of the total housing area for affordable housing [5] - Chongqing has 152 real estate "white list" projects that have received credit of 28.46 billion yuan, with 132 projects having received loans totaling 13.9 billion yuan [5] Stock Valuation - The top five real estate companies by price-to-book ratio (PB) are: - China Communications Construction: 6.29 - Beijing Investment Development: 2.41 - Lujiazui: 2.20 - China Merchants Industry: 1.40 - Binjiang Group: 1.30 [6][16]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][4]. Core Viewpoints - Longbai Group is a global leader in titanium dioxide (TiO2) production, with a total capacity of 850,000 tons/year for sulfate process and 660,000 tons/year for chloride process, benefiting from strong resource and technological advantages [1][10]. - The domestic supply of titanium dioxide is expected to tighten, while overseas capacity is being reduced, leading to a favorable industry outlook [1][67]. - The company is expanding its sponge titanium production capacity, which is currently 80,000 tons/year, and is focusing on high-end applications in aerospace and defense [1][10]. - The company is strategically positioned in the new energy materials sector, with existing capacities of 100,000 tons for iron phosphate, 50,000 tons for lithium iron phosphate, and 25,000 tons for graphite anodes, although it plans to pause new investments in this area due to industry overcapacity [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Longbai Group is a diversified enterprise focusing on new material research and manufacturing, with a history of significant mergers and acquisitions that have bolstered its market position [10][19]. - The company has a young and professional management team, enhancing its innovative capabilities [19]. 2. Resource Supply Advantage - The company has secured mining rights for several iron mines, ensuring a resource reserve of over 300 million tons, which can sustain operations for approximately 20 years [1][45]. - The global supply of titanium ore is limited, with China being a major contributor to new resource increments [37][39]. 3. Titanium Dioxide Leadership - Longbai Group holds the largest production capacity for sulfate titanium dioxide globally and ranks first in China for chloride titanium dioxide production [1][62]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in the titanium dioxide market as the real estate sector stabilizes [53][67]. 4. Sponge Titanium Production - The company is a pioneer in high-end sponge titanium production, with plans for further expansion and potential listing of its subsidiary to enhance market competitiveness [1][10]. 5. New Energy Materials - Longbai Group has established a foothold in the new energy materials market but will delay further capacity investments due to current industry overcapacity [2][10]. 6. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 301.9 billion, 332.6 billion, and 367.0 billion yuan, with net profits of 34.6 billion, 40.8 billion, and 49.2 billion yuan respectively [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 36.41 CNY per share [5][11] Core Views - The company is a rising player in the industrial control field with strong product capabilities in system integration and industry customization [2] - Overseas business expansion is progressing smoothly and the company is a pioneer in the robotics sector which will benefit in the long term [2][11] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.5/3.1/3.8 billion CNY in 2024-2026, with year-on-year growth of 30%/23%/26% [11] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 1.64 billion CNY in 2024 to 2.46 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.6% [11] - Net profit is expected to increase from 248 million CNY in 2024 to 383 million CNY in 2026 [1] - EPS is projected to rise from 1.17 CNY in 2024 to 1.81 CNY in 2026 [1] - P/E ratio is estimated to decrease from 25.2 in 2024 to 16.3 in 2026 [1] Industry Landscape - The industrial automation market is divided into discrete and process automation, with different characteristics and drivers [46] - The inverter market is seeing a trend of domestic substitution, with foreign brands' advantages diminishing [55] - The servo system market is expected to recover steadily, driven by increasing precision and stability requirements in high-end manufacturing [2] - The PLC market is dominated by foreign brands in medium and large segments, while domestic brands are gaining share in the small PLC market [80] Competitive Advantages - The company has a rich product matrix and provides customized system integration solutions [87] - It adopts a differentiated strategy in inverters, with continuous upgrades of core products [90] - The company has a complete industrial control product system, including inverters, servo systems, and control systems [88] - It has made breakthroughs in high-voltage inverter technology, expanding its presence in project-based markets [92] Key Variables - Inverters: Domestic substitution and overseas expansion are expected to drive growth, with revenue forecasted to reach 13.9 billion CNY by 2026 [8] - Servo systems: Domestic substitution is progressing faster, with revenue expected to grow to 9.5 billion CNY by 2026 [8]

Group 1 - The overall liquidity in the stock market significantly improved in September, with a total fundraising amount of 7 billion yuan in the primary market, a month-on-month decrease of 37.5% [14] - In September, the net reduction of important shareholders in the secondary market was 2 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.1 billion yuan compared to the previous month [18] - The average daily trading volume in the two markets reached 796.9 billion yuan in September, an increase of 33.4% compared to the previous month [24] Group 2 - The amount of stock repurchased by listed companies in September was 51.1 billion yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 9% [21] - The issuance scale of equity funds in September was 23 billion yuan, a significant increase of 12.5 billion yuan compared to the previous month [29] - The stock investment ratio of open-end funds rose to 68.27% by the end of September, up from 64.82% at the end of August [31] Group 3 - The financing and margin trading balance in the A-share market slightly increased to 1,395.6 billion yuan, up by 2.7 billion yuan from the end of the previous month [33] - The liquidity environment for A-shares is expected to improve further due to favorable domestic policies and a more accommodative global liquidity environment following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [35]

Overall Situation - The total issuance scale of funds in September 2024 saw a significant increase, with 871 billion units issued, up by 345 billion units from the previous month. However, compared to the same period last year, the issuance scale decreased by 200 billion units. A total of 86 new products were launched, an increase of 8 from the previous month but a decrease of 42 year-on-year [13][14]. - Bond funds continued to dominate the market, accounting for 567 billion units or 65.1% of the total issuance, although this represents a 10.0 percentage point decrease from the previous month. Equity funds accounted for 31.8% of the total, an increase of 12.2 percentage points [14][18]. Active Equity Funds - The issuance scale of active equity funds in September 2024 was 25 billion units, reflecting a significant decline. The number of new active equity funds issued was 21, a decrease of 5 from the previous month. The majority of these were mixed equity funds, which accounted for 99.2% of the total issuance [18][19]. Passive Equity Funds - The issuance scale of passive equity funds surged to 251 billion units in September, an increase of 198 billion units from the previous month. This marks the highest level in nearly two years. A total of 36 new passive equity funds were launched, an increase of 14 from the previous month [23][24]. - Among the newly issued passive equity funds, 33 were passive index funds, indicating a preference for strategies that track market indices rather than actively managed funds [24][25]. Bond Funds - The issuance scale of bond funds rose to 567 billion units in September, an increase of 172 billion units. However, this remains at a relatively low level compared to historical data. A total of 22 new bond funds were issued, a decrease of 3 from the previous month [27][28]. - Long-term pure bond funds dominated the new issuances, with 8 funds totaling 324 billion units, accounting for 57.1% of the bond fund issuance [28][30]. QDII Funds - QDII funds continued to see no new issuances, remaining at zero units in September, which is the lowest level in nearly two years. This trend reflects significant fluctuations in the issuance scale over the past two years [31][32]. FOF Funds - FOF funds experienced a slight recovery in issuance, totaling 9 billion units in September, an increase of 2 billion units from the previous month. A total of 4 new FOF funds were launched, also an increase of 2 from the previous month [34].

Core Viewpoints - Overall, downstream consumption shows differentiation, while the midstream manufacturing sector is recovering, and upstream industries are experiencing a rebound [1] Upstream Industry - The upstream industry is seeing a recovery in sentiment, with steel and building materials prices rebounding in September. The price of thermal coal has slightly increased, and the prices of copper and aluminum futures have expanded their month-on-month growth. The lithium carbonate price is expected to escape its current below-cost operation, and the rare earth price index has risen for the second consecutive month [1][9] - In September, chemical product prices generally declined, indicating a downturn in the industry. WTI crude oil prices have decreased for the second month, and inventories also fell in September [1][9] Midstream Industry - The midstream manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, with high growth in the production and installation of power batteries in August. Global and Asian semiconductor sales have slightly increased, and excavator sales continue to grow significantly. However, the shipping index shows a mixed trend, and the sales of heavy trucks have seen an expanded year-on-year decline [1][9] Downstream Industry - Downstream consumption is experiencing differentiation, with a slight decline in retail sales growth in August, while online retail sales of physical goods have increased year-on-year. In the home appliance sector, retail sales growth has slightly accelerated. In the food sector, the prices of two tracked dairy products fell in September, and fresh milk prices have reached a low point [1][9] - In the agricultural sector, meat prices are showing mixed trends, and due to a significant drop in international grain prices last month, a correction has occurred this month. In the automotive sector, both passenger and commercial vehicle sales continue to shrink, but the sales growth of new energy vehicles has accelerated year-on-year. In the consumer electronics sector, smartphone shipments maintained high year-on-year growth [1][9]

Group 1 - The report highlights strong economic data from the US, with ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs indicating steady growth, and September non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding market expectations [1][9] - The unemployment rate in the US decreased to 4.1%, below expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 4% year-on-year, marking the highest growth since March [1][9] - The report notes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to rising oil prices, which could pose inflationary risks, prompting a more cautious approach from the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate cuts [1][9] Group 2 - The report tracks global major asset performance, with the Shenzhen Component Index showing the highest increase at +10.67%, followed by the Hang Seng Index at +10.20% and NYMEX light crude oil at +8.46% [2][28] - Conversely, the report indicates that the French CAC40 index experienced the largest decline at -3.21%, along with the Korean Composite Index at -3.02% and the Nikkei 225 at -3.00% [2][28] - The report emphasizes the mixed performance of global equity markets, with significant gains in some indices while others faced notable declines [28][32]

华福证券 投资要点： 假期国内观察：出行热情高，9 月 PMI 修复显著 假期出游人流量旺盛，首日电影票房取得突破。国庆假期出行旺 盛，但从机票表现窥见或依然延续"量涨价跌"的趋势，电影票房在 首日取得突破，但整体表现略为平淡。国庆节前出台的一揽子政策或 对居民出游起到提振作用，期待居民消费的持续修复。今年国庆假期 出行人数火热，且民航、铁路同期增长明显，或反映出居民出行半径 的扩大。结合携程集团《2024 国庆旅游预测报告》，国庆期间超六成 游客选择长途旅游。机票价格下降超 20%，相关小众旅游订单同比增 长超 20%，体现出旅游的性价比。电影市场在首日取得突破，但整体 表现相较于去年略显平淡，首日全国电影票房总额接近 5 亿元，目前 国庆档电影票房破 18 亿。 9 月 PMI 数据较为积极。制造业分项数据体现出供需两端的改善， 生产指数提升明显，新订单指数回升对冲新出口订单指数下降，或体 现出内需强于外需，释放出内需回暖的积极信号。建筑业 PMI 微改善， 服务业 PMI 小幅回落，伴随着后续各类稳增长政策发力，景气度均有 望回暖。 房地产增量政策落地，多地调整购房政策。9 月 29 日央行发布公 告善 ...