Group 1 - The market experienced a slight decline of 0.2% this week, with significant policy meetings influencing market expectations and trading activity, averaging daily turnover of 1.9 trillion [2][13] - The Central Economic Work Conference provided guidance for the market, suggesting a focus on the large consumption sector, including emerging consumption trends such as the "first launch economy," "ice and snow economy," and "silver-haired economy" [2][4][45] - Despite a drop in trading volume on Friday, indices related to emerging consumption concepts, such as ice and snow tourism and short drama games, still showed gains [2][4] Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread increased to 1.4%, indicating a slight rise in valuation differentiation, which typically precedes market peaks by 0.5 to 1 month [3][21] - Market sentiment improved, with a 66.3% increase in the five-dimensional market sentiment index, while industry rotation intensity decreased, favoring small-cap stocks [3][22] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 376 billion, with significant inflows into sectors like machinery, media, and computing [3][34] Group 3 - The Shanghai Municipal Government issued a plan to support mergers and acquisitions from 2025 to 2027, aiming to cultivate competitive listed companies in key industries such as integrated circuits and biomedicine [4][39] - The upcoming Winter Volcano Engine FORCE conference in Shanghai will explore AI transformation opportunities, highlighting the importance of AI in the current market landscape [4][40] - The Jilin Provincial Government announced initiatives to promote the ice and snow economy, including increased consumer vouchers to stimulate growth in related sectors [4][41][42] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of the large consumption sector, recommending attention to both traditional and emerging consumption areas, particularly as the ice and snow season approaches [4][45] - It suggests monitoring trends in low-altitude economy and self-control as significant areas for future growth [4][45] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in mergers and acquisitions, debt resolution, sustained demand growth, and potential recovery in struggling sectors [4][46]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. November CPI year-on-year and month-on-month growth rates met market expectations but were higher than previous values, maintaining the market's expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut in December [1][23] - The PPI year-on-year growth rate was 3.0%, and the month-on-month growth rate was 0.4%, both exceeding previous values and expectations, indicating persistent inflation [1][24] - The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 242,000 from 225,000, and continuing claims increasing to 1.886 million from 1.871 million [1][24] Group 2 - The report notes that the market has almost fully priced in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with a 96% probability [1][25] - Federal Reserve officials have indicated that the current policy remains sufficiently restrictive, allowing for a gradual approach to future rate cuts [1][25] - The report highlights that the core CPI year-on-year growth rate was 3.3%, consistent with previous values, while the core goods month-on-month growth rate was 0.3%, up from 0.0% [1][24] Group 3 - The report tracks global major asset performance, with NYMEX light crude oil showing the largest increase at +5.84%, while LME three-month lead had the largest decline at -2.56% [1][42] - The report indicates mixed performance in global equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 2.73% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 1.82% [1][47] - In the foreign exchange market, the U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.29% against the Chinese yuan, while the Japanese yen depreciated by 1.78% [1][55]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The semiconductor sector is experiencing varied performance across sub-sectors, with digital chips showing significant gains, while other segments like equipment and materials are facing declines [2][3] - The upcoming Byte FORCE conference is expected to showcase advancements in AI applications, particularly with the Doubao app leading the market in user engagement [2] - The DRAM market is under pressure with ongoing price wars, leading to expectations of a greater decline in prices than previously anticipated [4] Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The overall semiconductor index saw increases, with the Shenwan and Philadelphia semiconductor indices rising by 0.62% and 2.61% respectively [2] - Specific stocks within the SoC segment experienced substantial gains, such as Lexin Technology (+50.2%) and Zhongke Blue Communication (+34.4%) [3] Storage Sector - The storage sector showed mixed results, with notable increases in stocks like Purun Shares (+37.2%) despite a general decline in demand for smartphones and PCs [4] Analog Sector - The analog sector had varied performance, with companies like Shengjing Micro (+12.4%) and Tiande Yu (+9.3%) showing positive trends, while others faced declines [5] Communication Sector - The communication sector saw minor fluctuations, with Longxun Shares increasing by 34.2%, indicating potential opportunities in the AI glasses market [7] Power Sector - The power sector experienced mixed results, with Dongni Electronics rising by 10.2%, while others faced declines, highlighting the need to monitor supply chain changes from foreign manufacturers [7] Equipment Sector - The equipment sector faced a general pullback, with significant declines in stocks like Zhongwei Company (-7.21%) and Jingshi Technology (-7.04%) [8] Manufacturing Sector - The wafer foundry sector showed a recovery trend, with companies like SMIC and Huahong's utilization rates improving significantly [8] Packaging and Testing Sector - The packaging and testing sector had mixed results, with Yongxi Electronics increasing by 4.07% following a convertible bond announcement [9] Materials Sector - The materials sector experienced slight declines, with companies like Yake Technology decreasing by 2.56%, indicating ongoing challenges in the market [9]

epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属 2024 年 12 月 15 日 有色金属行业周报（12.9-12.15） 美 11 月通胀符合预期增加降息概率，欧洲央 行降息 25 个基点 强于大市(维持评级) 一年内行业相对大盘走势 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：美11月通胀符合预期，欧洲央行降息25个基点。特朗普 赢得美国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通 胀，周内金价弱势持稳。周中美11月通胀数据符合预期，增加市场对 美联储12月降息信心，欧洲央行降息25个基点。短期来看，特朗普交 易仍未完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格震 荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧 及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中国央行11月增持 黄金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、 紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股 份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银 锡、银泰黄金、盛达资源。 ➢ 工业金属：Antofagasta与江西铜 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [4]. Core Insights - The AI smart glasses market is entering a rapid development phase, with significant potential for growth driven by the integration of AI functionalities [2]. - AI-enabled headphones are evolving into new interaction tools, with a remarkable sales growth forecast for the Chinese market [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The electronic industry index increased by 0.22% during the week, while the broader market indices saw declines of 1.40% and 1.01% for the ChiNext and CSI 300, respectively [12]. - The semiconductor sector experienced the largest decline, with a weekly drop of 1.01%, while other electronic sectors saw a rise of 4.97% [12][16]. 2. Industry Dynamics - AI smart glasses are positioned as a key hardware for AI applications, with a projected annual sales volume of 55 million units by 2029 and a 70% penetration rate by 2035 [2]. - The AI headphone market in China is expected to see a sales volume exceeding 200,000 units in 2024, with a staggering year-on-year growth of 488.7% [3]. - The semiconductor industry reported a revenue of $158.2 billion in Q3 2024, marking a 17% year-on-year increase, largely due to AI demand [32][33]. 3. Company Dynamics - Companies such as GoerTek, Luxshare Precision, and others are recommended for investment in the AI smart glasses sector [3]. - The report highlights the rapid advancements in AI technology and its integration into consumer electronics, particularly in products from major players like Apple and Samsung [39][40].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - General Motors has announced a strategic shift away from funding its autonomous taxi project, Cruise, indicating that the focus will now be on more viable technologies such as driver assistance systems and personal vehicle automation. This shift suggests a potential opportunity for Tesla, as GM's CFO acknowledged Tesla's end-to-end autonomous driving approach as a correct strategy [4][22] - The report highlights significant developments in AI applications, with ChatGPT and Gemini leading in overseas downloads, while domestic applications like Doubao are also showing strong growth [5][26] Summary by Sections AI News Update - Internationally, Apple has integrated ChatGPT into its new iOS 18.2, enhancing Siri's capabilities [15] - OpenAI has made its Canvas feature available to all ChatGPT users, allowing for more interactive and collaborative use [16] - Domestically, ByteDance has prioritized its video editing tool, Jianying, indicating a strategic shift towards AI-driven content creation [18] General Motors' Strategic Shift - GM's decision to halt funding for Cruise is aimed at reallocating resources towards more promising technologies, with an expected annual savings of over $1 billion [17][20] - The restructuring of Cruise is anticipated to be completed by mid-2025, with GM aiming to increase its ownership stake in Cruise to over 97% [17][21] AI Data Update - For the week of December 6-12, 2024, ChatGPT's usage reached approximately 1.8 million daily interactions, while Gemini and Perplexity remained stable. Claude saw an 80% increase, albeit from a smaller base [23] - In the domestic market, Doubao's downloads surged nearly 20% to 1.2 million daily, while Kimi experienced a decline [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [4] Core Insights - The recent meetings emphasize the commitment to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on implementing more proactive fiscal policies and appropriately easing monetary policies to support the market [1][2] - The central financial committee has reiterated the importance of ensuring housing delivery and enhancing financial support for real estate projects, particularly through the expansion of "white list" projects [1] - The recovery path for the market is expected to involve a gradual easing of liquidity pressures, continued supply contraction, stabilization of housing prices, and a revival in sales and construction [2] Sales Review (12.8-12.14) - A total of 24,493 units were sold across 34 monitored cities, representing a 1.0% increase week-on-week; however, the cumulative sales for 2024 stand at 893,000 units, down 22.7% year-on-year [12] - First-tier cities saw a week-on-week increase of 18.2% in sales, while second-tier cities experienced a 9.0% decline, and third-tier cities saw a 20.6% decrease [12][13] Land Supply (12.1-12.7) - The planned construction area for residential land supply across 100 cities was 1,519 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 42,993 million square meters for 2024, down 28.2% year-on-year [30] - The average floor price for land supply across 100 cities was 3,720 yuan per square meter, with a recent increase of 1.4% week-on-week but a decrease of 7.8% year-on-year [30][32] Land Transactions (12.1-12.7) - The total planned construction area for residential land transactions was 2,233 million square meters, with a cumulative transaction area of 28,144 million square meters for 2024, down 16.7% year-on-year [45] - The average transaction floor price for residential land was 5,125 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 17.9% decrease week-on-week but a 22.5% increase year-on-year [45][47]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - The polyurethane industry is expected to see marginal improvement in demand due to policy stimulus, with a recommendation to focus on industry leader Wanhua Chemical [2] Summary by Sections Price Spread - As of December 13, the aggregate MDI price is 18,300 CNY/ton, down 1.1% month-on-month, with a price spread against benzene of 11,793.6 CNY/ton, down 3.3% [11][2] - Pure MDI price is 18,600 CNY/ton, down 2.1% month-on-month, with a price spread against benzene of 12,093.6 CNY/ton, down 4.7% [11][2] - TDI price is 12,850 CNY/ton, up 0.8% month-on-month, with a price spread against toluene of 6,029.2 CNY/ton, down 2.5% [11][2] - Hard foam polyether price is 12,100 CNY/ton, unchanged month-on-month, while soft foam polyether price is 9,075 CNY/ton, down 0.8% [11][2] Supply - As of December 12, MDI operating rate is 61% with inventory at 77,000 tons; TDI operating rate is 69.58% with inventory at 2,300 tons [23][2] - In October, aggregate MDI export volume was 96,690 tons, up 1.9% month-on-month; pure MDI export volume was 7,810 tons, down 2.3%; TDI export volume was 37,660 tons, up 1.0% [23][2] Downstream Demand - In October, refrigerator production was 8.971 million units, up 8.4% year-on-year, with exports at 6.9 million units, up 22.6%; freezer production was 2.173 million units, up 5.9%, with exports at 666,300 units, up 23.0% [36][2] - Cumulative housing construction area was 7.21 billion square meters, down 12.4% year-on-year; new housing starts were 610 million square meters, down 22.7% year-on-year [36][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the steel sector, suggesting potential for upward rebound due to favorable policy adjustments and low institutional holdings in the sector [2][14]. Core Insights - The steel market experienced fluctuations, initially rising due to positive policy signals but later adjusting to seasonal demand factors. Daily average pig iron production decreased to 2.325 million tons, with steel production at 8.607 million tons, reflecting a slight week-on-week decline of 0.06% and a year-on-year drop of 5.44% [2][14]. - Steel consumption showed resilience, with a weekly consumption of 8.817 million tons, up 0.81% week-on-week but down 3.11% year-on-year. Notably, rebar consumption remained strong [2][14]. - Steel inventory decreased to 1,139.1 thousand tons, down 1.81% week-on-week and 12.25% year-on-year, indicating a significant reduction in both steel mill and social inventories [2][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the steel sector's potential for recovery, driven by policy support and a favorable market environment. It identifies five main investment themes, including companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, those with technological barriers, and firms positioned for market recovery [2][14][15]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel sector outperformed the broader market, with a decline of 0.79% compared to a 1.01% drop in the CSI 300 index. The sector's PE ratio stands at 28.34, while the PB ratio is at 1.00, indicating mid-range valuation levels [18][19]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable gainers in the steel sector included Anyang Steel (+11.06%), Xianglou New Materials (+10.46%), and Shagang Group (+7.03%). Conversely, major decliners included Sangang Minmetals (-6.77%) and Maanshan Steel (-5.69%) [18][19]. 2.3 Commodity Prices - The report provides insights into commodity prices, including rebar, hot-rolled steel, coking coal, and iron ore, reflecting market trends and price movements over the reporting period [33][35][36][37]. 3. Recent Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - The report highlights key macroeconomic developments, including China's central economic work conference, which emphasized proactive fiscal policies and measures to boost domestic demand. This is expected to positively impact the steel sector in the coming years [43][47]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the supply and demand situation for iron ore and coking coal, noting fluctuations in production rates and inventory levels, which are critical for steel production [2][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [5]. Core Insights - The "trade-in for new" effect continues to show significant results, with the Ministry of Commerce reporting that the overall sales driven by trade-in programs have exceeded 1 trillion yuan, with home appliances contributing to over 49 million units sold [12][19]. - The Sichuan Provincial Commerce Department has initiated the selection process for companies to participate in the 2025 trade-in program, indicating a positive outlook for continued support of home appliance demand [12][19]. - The report highlights a robust recovery in consumer demand, particularly in the home appliance sector, driven by the trade-in policy and the upcoming holiday season [20]. Summary by Sections Trade-in Program Impact - The trade-in program has led to significant sales increases across various categories, with home appliances alone seeing over 49 million units sold as of December 6, 2024 [12][19]. - The program has also positively impacted other sectors, such as automotive and home improvement, with substantial sales figures reported [12]. Weekly Investment Perspective - The report suggests focusing on several key players in the home appliance sector, including Haier, Midea, and Gree, due to the expected recovery in domestic demand [20]. - It also emphasizes the potential of Chinese robotic vacuum brands, such as Roborock and Ecovacs, as they continue to gain market share globally [20]. Market Data - The home appliance sector experienced a weekly increase of 1.1%, with specific segments like small appliances seeing a rise of 4.3% [24]. - Raw material prices showed mixed trends, with LME copper decreasing by 0.56% and LME aluminum increasing by 0.49% [24].