epyTtropeR_elbaT|tsriF_elbaT 华福证券 行 业 研 究 日 行 业 定 期 研 究 有色金属 2024 年 12 月 8 日 有色金属行业周报（12.2-12.8） 强于大市(维持评级) 中国央行 11 月增持黄金，安托法斯塔与江铜签 订 25 年长单 TC 投资要点： ➢ 贵金属：中国央行11月增持黄金，中长期配置价值不改。特朗普 赢得美国大选，市场担心特朗普提议的关税和移民可能会重新引发通 胀，周内金价弱势持稳。周中叙利亚局势升温，美国11月失业率和非 农数据表现超预期，12月降息预期升温。短期来看，特朗普交易仍未 完全消退，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧仍在，预计贵金属价格震荡为 主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币政策方向明确，东欧及朝 鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中国央行11月增持黄 金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中金黄金、紫 金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙股份， 其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、 银泰黄金、盛达资源。 ➢ 工业金属：Antofagasta与江西铜业确定2025年铜精矿长单TC/R ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Innovative Development of New Business Entities in the Power Sector" is expected to promote the construction of a new power system [4][50] - Datang Tuoketuo Power Plant is transitioning from a single coal-fired power model to a diversified energy model, aiming to create a "future power plant" and "energy supermarket" [3][22] Summary by Sections Market Review - From December 2 to December 6, the environmental sector rose by 3.70%, the water sector by 2.35%, the power sector by 3.60%, and the gas sector fell by 0.15%, while the CSI 300 index increased by 2.60% [12][14] Industry Perspectives - The new business entities are crucial for constructing a new power system that accommodates a high proportion of renewable energy consumption. The challenges include insufficient renewable energy absorption capacity, lack of profitable models for new storage technologies, and increased supply pressure due to the instability of renewable energy [17][18] - The "Guiding Opinions" define new business entities, including distributed renewable energy and new storage technologies, and outline their roles in addressing supply, regulation, and absorption challenges [18][21] Company Announcements - Datang Tuoketuo Power Plant currently operates a total installed capacity of 8.73 million kW, with 6.72 million kW from coal, 1.70 million kW from wind, and 0.31 million kW from solar. In the first half of 2024, the plant's revenue reached 5.072 billion yuan, with a net profit of 680 million yuan [3][22][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in the green energy sector such as Three Gorges Energy, while being cautious with Longyuan Power, Zhejiang New Energy, and Zhonglv Electric. In the hydropower sector, it recommends attention to Changjiang Electric Power and Qianyuan Electric, with caution advised for Guotou Power and Huaneng Hydropower [4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Follow the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to be between -5% and 5% relative to the market benchmark index over the next 6 months [23]. Core Viewpoints - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a slight decline, with the Shenwan Semiconductor Index down by 0.25% during the week of December 2-7, while other indices like the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and Taiwan Semiconductor Index showed positive growth [2]. - The global semiconductor sales reached a record high in October 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, and a forecasted growth of 19.0% for the entire year, reaching a total of $626.9 billion [4]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Chinese semiconductor companies, with 140 firms added to the entity list, prompting a swift response from China to restrict exports of dual-use items to the U.S. [2][3]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Market Performance - The semiconductor sector's transaction volume accounted for 4.87% of the total A-share market, showing a decrease from the previous week [2]. - Various sub-sectors within the semiconductor industry showed mixed performance, with equipment and materials down by 3.11% and 1.32% respectively, while digital and analog chips saw increases of 0.33% and 2.96% [2]. Company Developments - NXP Semiconductors is expanding its manufacturing capabilities in China, with a new 12-inch wafer fab set to begin production in 2027, aiming to enhance its local supply chain [3]. - The report notes that the domestic semiconductor equipment companies are preparing for potential impacts from U.S. export controls, with most components already localized [9]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the domestic semiconductor market has significant growth potential, especially with the increasing demand for advanced process chips and local manufacturing initiatives [10]. - The anticipated growth in AI PC applications is expected to drive improvements in storage demand, particularly for NAND Flash products [6].

Investment Rating - The textile and apparel industry is rated as "Outperform" relative to the market [5]. Core Insights - Lululemon's Q3 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue in mainland China growing by 39% year-on-year. The company achieved revenue of $2.4 billion in FY25Q3, a 9% increase year-on-year, slightly surpassing market expectations. North America and international revenues grew by 2% and 33% respectively, with international growth at 30% on a constant currency basis [2][12][21]. Summary by Sections Lululemon Q3 Performance - Lululemon's Q3 revenue reached $2.4 billion, up 9% year-on-year (8% on a constant currency basis), slightly above market expectations. Revenue from mainland China surged by 39% year-on-year (36% on a constant currency basis) [2][12]. - Same-store sales in North America declined by 2%, while international same-store sales increased by 25% (22% on a constant currency basis), with mainland China contributing 27% to this growth [12][21]. Market Data - The textile and apparel sector saw a weekly increase of 1.82%, with textile manufacturing down by 0.11% and apparel/home textiles up by 2.66%. The current spot price for 328-grade cotton is 15,196 yuan/ton, down 0.54%, while the Cotlook A price is 81.6 cents/pound, down 0.49% [3][35]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines in the textile and apparel sector: 1. Recovery in manufacturing exports with high visibility, recommending companies like Shenzhou International, Huafang Group, and Jian Sheng Group. 2. Anticipated growth in sports apparel driven by event marketing and new product launches, recommending 361 Degrees. 3. Favorable trends in overseas expansion and early entry into apparel brands, recommending Anta Sports, Kairun Co., and Semir Apparel [4][30][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [5] Core Insights - The implementation of deed tax exemptions has significantly improved transaction data, with 364,000 households benefiting from tax reductions totaling 8.4 billion yuan, averaging 23,000 yuan per household. This policy is expected to stimulate housing demand [1] - In November, land acquisition by major real estate companies reached a new high for the year, with 30 companies acquiring land worth 90 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 181%. The average floor price in core cities rose by 67% compared to October [2] - The report anticipates a surge in property transactions in December due to year-end promotions by developers and a potential easing of policies from the Central Economic Work Conference [3] Sales Review (12.1-12.7) - A total of 23,980 units were sold across 34 monitored cities, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 32.4%. Cumulatively, 868,000 units have been sold in 2024, down 23.6% year-on-year. First-tier cities saw a 26.6% decrease week-on-week [4][13] Land Supply (11.24-11.30) - The planned land supply across 100 cities was 3.742 million square meters, with a cumulative supply of 38.733 million square meters in 2024, down 30.6% year-on-year. The average floor price for land was 3,969 yuan per square meter, with a week-on-week decrease of 7.8% [4][36] Land Transactions (11.24-11.30) - The total area of residential land sold across 100 cities was 1.518 million square meters, with a cumulative total of 23.581 million square meters in 2024, down 19.5% year-on-year. The average transaction floor price was 4,695 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 28.1% decrease week-on-week [4][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform the Market" for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the significant unmet demand in the lipid-lowering drug sector, driven by a large patient population suffering from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), which is the leading cause of death in China, accounting for over 40% of mortality [2][19]. - The report emphasizes the need for innovative lipid-lowering therapies, particularly focusing on new targets such as PCSK9, Lp(a), APOC3, ANGPTL3, and CETP, as traditional treatments like statins have limitations [2][19]. - The report suggests that the domestic companies involved in the development of innovative lipid-lowering drugs, such as Heng Rui Medicine, Shiyao Group, and Kangfang Biotech, should be closely monitored for investment opportunities [2][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review and Investment Strategy - The report notes that the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index rose by 1.5% in the week of December 2-6, 2024, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.1 percentage points [1]. - It suggests that the pharmaceutical sector can gradually increase allocations, with expectations of excess returns following the semi-annual reports [11]. 2. Lipid-Lowering Drug Industry Focus - The report identifies a large patient population with ASCVD and highlights the low treatment rates in China, with only 30.1% of high-risk patients achieving long-term LDL-C targets [2][19]. - It discusses the innovative research and development of lipid-lowering drugs targeting PCSK9, Lp(a), APOC3, ANGPTL3, and CETP, indicating a robust pipeline of new therapies [2][19]. 3. Weekly Market Recap and Hotspot Tracking - The report provides a recap of the A-share pharmaceutical sector's performance, noting a rebound after a period of decline, influenced by government procurement policies favoring domestic brands [2][3]. - It anticipates significant capital inflows into pharmaceutical ETFs and actively managed funds, suggesting potential for excess returns in the near future [2][11]. 4. Recommended Investment Combinations - The report lists specific companies to watch, including WuXi AppTec, United Imaging Healthcare, and Kangfang Biotech, as part of its investment strategy [2][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the steel industry, suggesting a focus on potential investment opportunities despite current market challenges [2][14]. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a weak trend, with iron ore prices remaining firm while coking coal prices have significantly declined, leading to downward pressure on steel prices. The macroeconomic expectations regarding policy have cooled, and both supply and demand for steel continue to decrease, with daily molten iron output dropping to 2.326 million tons [2][15]. - The report highlights five main investment lines, including companies with strong dividend yields and valuation recovery potential, those with high technical or cost barriers, and firms benefiting from resource endowments [2][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Investment Strategy - The steel market is currently in a weak phase, with a decrease in both supply and demand. Daily molten iron production has decreased, and steel prices are under pressure due to falling coking coal prices [2][15]. 2. Weekly Review 2.1 Industry Performance - The steel industry outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 5.61% compared to the index's 1.44% rise. The current PE (TTM) for the steel industry is 28.61, and the PB (LF) is 1.01, indicating a mid-range valuation among industries [18]. 2.2 Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include Zhongnan Co. with a 28.89% increase, and Maanshan Steel with a 19.57% increase. Conversely, Guangda Special Materials saw a decline of 5.56% [21]. 2.3 Commodity Prices - The report provides insights into various commodity prices, including rebar, hot-rolled steel, coking coal, and iron ore, reflecting the current market dynamics [37][41][42]. 3. Recent Events 3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a mixed outlook, with China's PMI showing signs of improvement while export controls on dual-use items to the U.S. have been tightened [49]. 3.2 Industry Dynamics - The report notes planned maintenance for 12 blast furnaces in December, affecting a capacity of approximately 62,000 tons per day, alongside the introduction of new policies aimed at reducing emissions in key industries [54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a slight upward trend in paper prices, suggesting a recovery in profitability for paper companies, with a focus on companies like Sun Paper, Bohui Paper, and Shanying International [1][3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of cross-border e-commerce, particularly in the context of the U.S. "Black Friday" and "Cyber Monday" sales, which saw significant online spending growth [3][4]. - The home furnishing sector is expected to see continued upward trends due to government subsidies and improved retail sales, with key players including Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhijia Home [2][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Performance - The light industry sector underperformed the market with a 1.23% increase compared to the 1.44% increase in the CSI 300 index during the week ending December 6, 2024 [15]. - The packaging and printing index rose by 5.04%, while the home goods index only increased by 0.13% [15]. 2. Home Furnishing - The home furnishing retail sector showed signs of recovery, with a 7.4% year-on-year increase in retail sales for October, while the building materials and home furnishing market saw a 2.71% decline [37][38]. - The report notes a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.6% in the furniture manufacturing industry from January to October [39]. 3. Paper and Packaging - As of December 6, 2024, paper prices have seen increases: double glue paper at 5,362.5 CNY/ton (+162.5 CNY), copper plate paper at 5,470 CNY/ton (+50 CNY), and box board paper at 3,697 CNY/ton (+40.4 CNY) [49]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with integrated supply chains and diverse product offerings, such as Sun Paper and Nine Dragons Paper [2][4]. 4. Consumer Goods - The report indicates a positive outlook for essential consumer goods, with a recommendation to focus on companies like Morning Glory and Dekang Oral Care, which are expected to benefit from improved consumer spending [3][4]. 5. Export Chain - The report highlights the growth in U.S. online sales during the holiday season, with "Black Friday" sales reaching approximately 10.8 billion USD, a 10.2% increase year-on-year [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - The automotive sector is experiencing strong sales driven by policy incentives, with a notable increase in vehicle sales and a rapid inventory reduction, indicating significant trading opportunities [3][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading automotive manufacturers and companies involved in robotics, as the market is expected to see continued growth in both segments [3][9] - The report anticipates a sustained "price war" in the automotive market, particularly with the introduction of new models and competitive pricing strategies [2] Summary by Sections Recent Market Performance - The automotive index rose by 3.6% this week, ranking 8th out of 31 sectors [1] - In November, retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.446 million units, a year-on-year increase of 18%, while wholesale sales were 2.943 million units, up 15% year-on-year [2] Industry Changes - The report highlights a call from four associations for domestic companies to be cautious in purchasing American chips [2] - Changan Automobile plans to raise no more than 6 billion yuan through a private placement to its controlling shareholder and subsidiaries [2] Investment Strategy - The report suggests selecting leading automotive companies and those involved in robotics, with a focus on companies like Geely, Seres, Li Auto, and BYD, which have strong fundamentals and bargaining power [3][6] - For automotive parts, the report recommends focusing on companies with robotics layouts, anticipating growth in the autonomous driving sector and the emergence of humanoid robots [3][9] Recommendations - Recommended automotive leaders include BYD and Seres in A-shares, and Geely, Zeekr, Li Auto, and Xiaomi in Hong Kong and US markets [6] - For automotive parts, companies like Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, and Shiyun Circuit are highlighted as key investment opportunities [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the timely construction of large-scale clusters and the catalytic activities of OpenAI, with a focus on the optical module sector [3] - Major overseas AI companies are disclosing plans for large-scale cluster constructions, indicating a growing demand for computing power [3] - The report suggests that the optical module manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly from the increasing demand for data center hardware as AI applications develop [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 3.34% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index increased by 2.73% during the week [2] - Notable performances include a 23.19% increase in Marvell Technology's stock, driven by strong AI demand, and a 10.99% rise in Salesforce's stock due to better-than-expected earnings [2] Optical Module Sector - Stock prices of optical module manufacturers such as Zhongji Xuchuang and NewEase fell by 29.23% and 22.48% respectively, attributed to market concerns over U.S. tariff policies [4] - Current valuations for Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication are considered relatively low, with PE ratios of 17, 19, and 27 respectively [4] - The report anticipates that the gradual implementation of large-scale clusters will enhance the growth rate of optical module demand, with OpenAI's recent activities potentially acting as a catalyst for the sector [4] Server ODM Outlook - Hon Hai's November revenue was 672.6 billion TWD, a year-on-year increase of 3.47% but a month-on-month decrease of 16.43% [5] - Wistron's November revenue reached 95.243 billion TWD, showing a year-on-year increase of 24.61% [5] - The report predicts a double-digit growth in AI server shipments in Q4, while general server shipments are expected to remain stable or see slight growth [5] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the optical module sector, specifically companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, NewEase, and Tianfu Communication, as well as copper connection and PCB manufacturers [9]