Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reached historical highs this week, driven by interest rate cut expectations and strong economic data, with the S&P 500 increasing by 0.96% and Nasdaq by 3.34% [1][9] - The consumer discretionary sector rose by 4.57%, and the information technology sector increased by 4.22%, indicating strong performance in these areas [1][9] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 227,000 jobs in November, surpassing the previous value of 36,000 and the expected 200,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% [10][11] Group 2 - The ISM manufacturing PMI for November was reported at 48.4, higher than the previous value of 46.5 and the expected 47.5, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52.1, lower than the previous 56 and expected 55.5 [10][11] - The Michigan consumer sentiment index for December was 74, exceeding the previous value of 71.8 and the expected 73 [10][11] - The market anticipates an 86% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [11][22] Group 3 - Global major asset classes showed mixed performance, with the German DAX rising by 3.86%, Nasdaq by 3.34%, and CBOT soybean oil by 3.17%, while IPE crude oil fell by 2.59% [2][35] - The U.S. equity markets displayed varied results, with the consumer discretionary sector leading gains, while the energy sector faced declines [40][45] - The foreign exchange market saw the ruble appreciating by 2.05% against the yuan, while the Korean won depreciated by 1.46% [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the satellite internet industry [5]. Core Insights - The successful launch of the Long March 12 rocket marks a significant advancement in China's commercial space capabilities, enhancing satellite internet technology and increasing launch capacity for low Earth orbit [2]. - The "Qianfan Constellation" satellite network has expanded to 54 satellites, aiming to provide low-latency, high-speed satellite internet services globally, with plans for further expansion by 2025 [3]. - The report suggests focusing on various companies within the satellite internet supply chain, including Chengchang Technology, Fudan Microelectronics, and others [4]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The electronic sector index increased by 1.61% during the week of December 2-6, with the ChiNext index rising by 1.97% and the CSI 300 index by 1.44% [12]. - The electronic sector ranked 24th among all industries in terms of performance for the week [12]. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is facing challenges due to new U.S. export restrictions affecting over 140 Chinese companies, prompting calls for cautious procurement of U.S. chips [30]. - Global semiconductor sales reached $56.9 billion in October 2024, a 22.1% increase year-over-year, with projections for continued growth in 2024 and 2025 [34]. - The automotive chip localization rate is expected to rise to 15% in 2024, driven by domestic production and policy support [56]. Company Developments - XREAL has launched the XREAL One AR glasses, which feature a self-developed X1 chip aimed at enhancing user experience in augmented reality [50][51]. - Tesla plans to introduce a new model, "Model Q," in the first half of 2025, priced below $30,000, as part of its strategy to expand market reach [58]. - NXP Semiconductors is establishing a supply chain in China to support the growing demand for automotive chips [60].

Group 1 - The report indicates that China's total policy support is clear, with reduced risks from broad fiscal and real estate sectors dragging down the economy. If commodity and service consumption continue to expand, combined with improved industrial profits, it may signal a positive feedback loop for domestic circulation [1] - The resilience of the US economy is highlighted, with interest rate-sensitive sectors providing support to the economy [1] - The long-term trend in China is identified as an expansion of the service industry, a contraction in traditional manufacturing, and an acceleration of self-sufficiency and the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 2 - The report notes that market trading characteristics remain evident, with a potential shift towards large-cap value styles in the future [1] - There is a long-term positive outlook for central state-owned enterprises, the Belt and Road Initiative, new consumption, O2O, semiconductor equipment, military industry, and leading traditional manufacturing companies, while mid-term attention is given to AI applications [1] Group 3 - The report discusses the weak structure of US non-farm employment, with November's non-farm payrolls exceeding expectations at 227,000, supported mainly by government sectors, while the private sector fell short of expectations [10] - It is noted that employment in goods production is stronger than in services, but wage growth remains weak, indicating persistent inflation in the service sector [11] - The report highlights that advanced manufacturing and cyclical sectors have led the market, while consumption and pharmaceuticals have shown weaker performance [20]

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 投资要点： 进阶而上——2025 年宏观经济及市场展望 团队成员 分析师： 燕翔(S0210523050003) yx30128@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 许茹纯(S0210523060005) xrc30167@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 朱成成(S0210523060003) zcc30168@hfzq.com.cn 联系人： 石琳(S0210123100047) sl30332@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、历次政治动荡后的韩国资产表现——全球热点 观察系列（7）——2024.12.06 2、行业比较专刊：下游消费延续复苏，中游行业 景气回升——2024.12.04 3、一周综评与展望：PMI 景气回升——2024.12.01 2025 年宏观经济有望走出价格收缩区间、迎来名义经济增速拐点，新质生 产力加快发展、新动能不断培育壮大。新" 国九条"和" 1+N"政策体系为 资本市场行稳致远夯实基石，持续推动资本市场高质量发展。市场行情方 面，2025 年预计将出现阶段转换，从第一阶段由政策驱动风险偏好提升及 资金宽松引发的市场行情进入到由盈利基本面持续改善驱 ...

Monetary Policy Changes - The central bank will implement a revised narrow money (M1) statistical caliber starting January 2025, which will include personal demand deposits and customer reserve funds from non-bank payment institutions[1] - The adjustment aims to reflect the liquidity of personal demand deposits and non-bank payment reserves, aligning them with the characteristics of demand deposits[1] Global Political Instability - South Korea's political situation is tense, with President Yoon Suk-yeol declaring a state of emergency due to budget disputes, which was later revoked by the National Assembly[2] - France's National Assembly successfully passed a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Barnier, marking the first successful no-confidence vote since 1962, leading to significant political instability[2] - Germany faces political turmoil as Finance Minister Lindner was dismissed, contributing to the potential collapse of the coalition government, impacting the economic outlook for Europe[2] U.S. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, slightly exceeding market expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, surpassing both expectations and the previous month's rate of 4.1%[2] - The strong job growth alongside rising unemployment has increased market speculation regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include geopolitical instability exceeding expectations, economic data falling short of forecasts, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets[3]

Economic Growth and Resilience - China's GDP in the first three quarters of 2024 reached 95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, maintaining a high growth level globally[11] - The IMF predicts that China's economy will continue to show strong resilience and high growth rates in 2025, contributing significantly to global economic growth[11] Inflation and Price Trends - In 2024, China's CPI increased by an average of 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points from 2023, while PPI decreased by 2.1%, narrowing by 0.9 percentage points compared to 2023[12] - With the implementation of macro policies, China's economy is expected to exit the price contraction zone in 2025[12] New Quality Productivity and Economic Transformation - High-tech industry investment grew by 9.3% in the first 10 months of 2024, with high-tech manufacturing and services investment growing faster than overall fixed asset investment[13] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 9.1% year-on-year in 2024, significantly higher than the overall industrial growth rate[13] Economic Structural Optimization - The service sector accounted for 55.9% of GDP in the first three quarters of 2024, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year[18] - Final consumption expenditure contributed 82.5% to GDP growth in 2023, the highest since 2000[18] Domestic Demand and Investment - Social retail sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024, with a notable increase to 4.8% in October[19] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.4% in the first 10 months of 2024, with equipment and tool investment growing by 16.1%[20] Real Estate Market Stabilization - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in Q3 2024, with new commercial housing sales area improving significantly in October and November[23] - Policy measures, including tax incentives and financial support, are expected to further stabilize the real estate market in 2025[24] Risk Factors - Geopolitical risks, macroeconomic underperformance, and significant fluctuations in overseas markets are key risks to watch[25]

华福证券 轨交设备Ⅱ 2024 年 12 月 07 日 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 团队成员 破 10 万列——2024.11.17 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 分析师： 俞能飞 ynf30520@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 唐保威 tbw30562@hfzq.com.cn | (S0210524040008) (S0210524050012) | | 相关报告 | | | 1、2024 年 1— 10 好，全国铁路客流保持高位—— 2 | 月份全国铁路主要指标持续向 2024.11.30 、我国铁路首次大规模试运动力锂电池，中老铁 | | 路老挝段单日旅客发送量创新高—— | 2024.11.23 | | 3、1 至 10 | 月发送旅客创新高，中欧班 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its growth prospects and market position [3][5] Core Views - The company has signed a 7-year exclusive distribution agreement with A Menarini Diagnostics S r l to distribute its first and second-generation CGM products in over 20 European countries and regions under a co-branding arrangement [1] - The European CGM market is the second largest globally, with a projected CAGR of 20 6% from 2020 to 2030, reaching USD 7 8 billion by 2030 [2] - The company is making progress in product improvements and FDA registration for the US market, which could further enhance its market share [2] Financial Projections - Revenue is expected to grow from CNY 4 32 billion in 2024 to CNY 5 93 billion in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 6%, 15%, and 19% respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from CNY 330 million in 2024 to CNY 635 million in 2026, with growth rates of 16%, 55%, and 24% respectively [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from CNY 0 59 in 2024 to CNY 1 13 in 2026 [3] Market and Industry Analysis - The European CGM market is expected to grow significantly, providing a substantial opportunity for the company to expand its presence through the new distribution agreement [2] - The company's CGM products are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in Europe, leveraging the strong distribution network of A Menarini Diagnostics [1][2] Product Development and Market Expansion - The company is continuously improving its product offerings, with next-generation products under review for enhanced user experience [2] - Efforts to enter the US market are ongoing, with FDA registration progressing, which could open up additional growth opportunities [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [2][42]. Core Insights - OpenAI announced a 12-day live streaming event to showcase various new technologies, including the launch of the o1 model and the new ChatGPT Pro subscription plan [2][21]. - The o1 model is designed to excel in programming, mathematics, and writing, with improved response speed and the ability to process visual data [2][23]. - The o1 Pro version, available through a $200/month subscription, outperforms previous versions in benchmarks related to mathematics, science, and programming [2][26]. - OpenAI introduced a fine-tuning feature that allows users to create expert models with minimal data, achieving an 80% score improvement over the o1 model [2][28]. Summary by Sections OpenAI Live Streaming Event - OpenAI's live streaming event consists of 12 sessions, starting on December 4, 2024, to introduce new products and features [2][21]. - The first day featured the launch of the o1 model and the ChatGPT Pro subscription plan [2][23]. AI Application Updates - During the period from November 29 to December 5, 2024, the download volumes for ChatGPT and Gemini remained stable at approximately 1.6 to 1.7 million and 600,000 to 650,000 per day, respectively [2][31]. - Domestic applications such as Doubao, Xinghuo, Wenxin Yiyan, and Tongyi maintained stable download volumes, while Kimi's downloads dropped to around 750,000 per day [2][37].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The traditional peak season is approaching, with a focus on inventory preparation and sales improvement [1]. - The report highlights various segments within the food and beverage industry, recommending specific companies based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. Summary by Segment Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) - The baijiu sector is expected to face pressure in Q4 and the beginning of the new year, with companies actively maintaining core product prices [1][12]. - Recommended companies include Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [1]. Beer - The report recommends Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer, focusing on high-end products and efficiency reforms [15]. - The beer market is expected to see stable sales growth, driven by structural upgrades [15]. Soft Drinks - Key recommendations include Dongpeng Beverage and Xiangpiaopiao, with a focus on companies showing recovery potential [16][17]. Pre-mixed Drinks - The report highlights the growth potential of the pre-mixed drinks sector, recommending Bairun Co., which is expected to benefit from its upcoming whiskey launch [18][19]. Dairy Products - Yili is recommended for its clear profit orientation and product structure optimization [21]. Snack Foods - Companies like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food are highlighted for their growth potential in emerging channels [22][23]. Seasonings & Catering - Recommended companies include Angel Yeast and Zhongju High-tech, with expectations of strong performance in the upcoming peak season [27][28]. Baking Supply Chain - Hai Rong Technology is recommended for its overseas expansion potential and growth confidence [30]. Health Products & Sugar Alternatives - The health products sector is expected to grow, driven by both the elderly and younger generations [31][32]. - Recommendations include Tong Ren Tang and Baihe Co. for their strong market positions [32]. Catering - Companies like Haidilao and Yum China are recommended for their innovative approaches and market positioning [36][38]. Pet Products - The report highlights the growth potential in the pet industry, recommending companies like Zhongchong Co. and Peidi Co. for their strong export performance [39][40]. Gold & Jewelry - Recommendations include Chao Hong Ji and Zhou Dazheng, focusing on their growth strategies and market positioning [43].