Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate sector [6]. Core Insights - The real estate industry experienced a tightening policy cycle during Trump's first term (2016-2020), despite expectations for a loosening cycle due to export constraints [2][13]. - The real estate chain continues to contribute positively to the economy even under strict policy controls, with a shift towards a high turnover model among developers to cope with liquidity pressures [3][44]. - The upcoming Trump 2.0 era is expected to accelerate trade policies, potentially impacting the real estate sector further [4][55]. - The current downturn in the real estate market is negatively affecting livelihoods and dragging down economic performance, necessitating a loosening of supply and demand policies [5][49]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Trump's First Term and Domestic Real Estate Regulation - Trump's first term coincided with a tightening policy cycle in the real estate sector, initiated by trade sanctions against China in 2018 [2][13]. - Despite the tightening, the real estate chain has shown resilience, contributing positively to the economy through increased demand for upstream industries and stimulating downstream consumption [3][44]. Section 2: New Cycle and Unconventional Recovery Path - The recent election results indicate a reduced resistance to Trump's policies, which may lead to quicker implementation of trade measures affecting the real estate sector [4][55]. - The current real estate downturn has resulted in negative contributions to GDP, with a need for policy adjustments to stimulate recovery [5][49]. - The necessity for counter-cyclical policy adjustments is highlighted, with expectations for monetary and fiscal policy easing to support the sector [5][49]. Section 3: Economic Contributions and Challenges - The real estate sector's contribution to GDP has been significant, averaging a 10% contribution rate from 2016 to 2020, despite the challenges posed by regulatory measures [46][49]. - The high turnover model adopted by developers has led to revenue growth, although net profits have been squeezed, benefiting upstream and downstream industries [44][46].

华福证券 证券研究报告|行业专题报告 美容护理行业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2024年12月04日 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 【华福商社】毛戈平招股说明书整理 ——高成长高端美妆龙头，港股上市开启新纪元 | | | | 证券分析师： 赵雅楠 执业证书编号：S0210524050007 高兴 执业证书编号：S0210522110002 | 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 公司产品立足于创始人的东方美学理念，定位高端市场。创始人毛戈平所倡导的将光影美学与东方美学深度融合的理念， 为企业在美妆产品开发方面奠定了成功的路线图。毛戈平化妆品股份有限公司的前身是成立于2000年的杭州毛戈平。公 司旗下拥有两个主要品牌：MAOGEPING和至爱终生，业务涵 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that all six sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical index recorded positive returns, indicating strong performance in the industry [1] - According to the "2024 China Pharmaceutical R&D Blue Book" published by Yaozhi Network, the Chinese pharmaceutical industry demonstrated vitality in 2023 across policy, market, research and development, and investment [1][10] - The report notes that the market size is expanding, with sales growth in public medical institutions and retail pharmacies, while the oncology drug market shows stable growth, and the cardiovascular and metabolic sectors are experiencing contraction [1][10] Group 2 - In terms of research and development, the number of clinical applications for innovative Class 1 drugs reached a historical high, with oncology and hematology being hot areas of focus [10][11] - The report indicates that Chinese pharmaceutical companies have made breakthroughs in international markets, with license-out transactions surpassing license-in transactions, reflecting the growing international influence of Chinese drug companies [10][11] - The investment landscape in 2023 saw a decline in both the number and amount of financing events, indicating a more cautious investment attitude in the pharmaceutical sector [10][11] Group 3 - The report tracks the recent inclusion of 24 non-reimbursed drugs into centralized procurement, which may lead to comprehensive price reductions in self-funded medical care [28][29] - The 2024 adjustment of the national medical insurance drug list added 91 new drugs, expected to reduce patient costs by over 50 billion yuan, with a focus on innovative drugs and improved coverage for critical areas [32][33] - The report emphasizes that the successful negotiation rate for new drugs exceeded 90%, highlighting the government's commitment to enhancing the accessibility of innovative treatments [32][33]

Core Insights - Overall, downstream consumption continues to recover, while the midstream industry shows signs of improvement, and upstream industries exhibit varying degrees of performance [1] - Upstream industry performance is mixed, with glass and cement prices rising sharply, while most tracked chemical product prices have shown recovery. Copper and aluminum futures prices have slightly declined, and the rare earth price index has turned down, but lithium carbonate prices have rebounded after a prolonged decline [1][12] - The midstream industry is mostly experiencing a recovery in sentiment, driven by a major cycle in electronics, with global and Asian semiconductor sales maintaining high growth. In transportation, both express delivery revenue and volume have increased year-on-year [1][12] - Downstream consumption continues to show recovery, supported by a series of consumption stimulus policies, with retail sales showing year-on-year growth. The home appliance and automotive sectors have benefited directly from these policies, with notable increases in sales [1][12] Downstream Industry Overview - Home appliance sales have accelerated, with retail sales in October increasing by 12.6% year-on-year, marking the fastest growth since early 2022. Air conditioner sales saw a year-on-year increase of 37.9% [18][19] - The retail sector is recovering, with total retail sales in October growing by 4.8% year-on-year, and online retail sales also turning positive [19][21] - In the food and beverage sector, dairy product prices continue to decline, with average prices for milk powder and fresh milk decreasing in November [24][26] - Agricultural prices showed slight fluctuations, with chicken prices stable and pork prices declining by 3.7% [29][30] - The automotive sector saw a significant recovery, with passenger car sales in October reaching 2.755 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [37][40] - Real estate indicators are mixed, with sales showing a continued recovery while development investment declines [45][46] Midstream Industry Overview - Semiconductor sales are experiencing high growth, with global semiconductor sales reaching $55.32 billion in September, a year-on-year increase of 23.2% [51] - The transportation sector shows a mixed trend, with express delivery revenue and volume increasing significantly in October [55][57] - In the machinery sector, excavator sales increased by 15.1% year-on-year in October, while heavy truck sales saw a reduced decline [60][64] - The battery sector maintains high growth, with battery production and installation volumes increasing by 46.3% and 51% year-on-year, respectively [66] Upstream Industry Overview - The construction materials sector is seeing rising prices for glass and cement, while chemical product prices are mostly recovering [12][68] - In the metals sector, copper and aluminum futures prices have declined, while lithium carbonate prices have rebounded [12][68] - Oil prices remain low, with WTI crude oil inventory slightly increasing [12][68]

Core Viewpoints - The domestic economy is expected to gradually recover in 2025, driven by policy support, with some industries potentially completing supply-side adjustments and exiting deflation [1] - Overseas, the US economy is expected to outperform Europe, with a weak upward inventory cycle, but uncertainties such as potential tariff impacts and Japan's interest rate hikes remain [1] - The report focuses on four key areas: debt resolution, restructuring, certain growth opportunities, and supply-side improvements, with a particular emphasis on restructuring [1] M&A and Restructuring Trends - M&A and restructuring activities have become more active, with a noticeable profit effect, especially as IPO activities slow down [2] - There is a seesaw effect between M&A and IPOs, with M&A becoming a viable alternative for companies when IPO exits are delayed [2] - Since August 2023, regulatory policies have tightened IPOs, leading to increased support for M&A and restructuring in 2024 [2] - The number of companies announcing restructuring plans has risen since July 2024, with the restructuring index significantly outperforming the Wind All-A Index [2] Policy Support for M&A and Restructuring - In 2024, policies have actively supported M&A and restructuring, particularly through documents like the new "National Nine Articles" in April, the "Tech Eight Articles" in June, and the "M&A Six Articles" in September [3] - These policies aim to improve review efficiency, diversify payment methods, increase valuation tolerance, and support cross-industry M&A, especially for unprofitable assets [3] - M&A and restructuring are seen as effective tools for market value management, helping companies transition to new productive forces and improve industrial concentration [3] Seven Investment Clues for Restructuring 1. **Asset Injection within the Same Controlling Entity**: Companies that have halted or terminated IPOs may inject assets into listed companies under the same controlling entity [3] 2. **Previously Failed M&A Attempts**: Companies that failed in previous M&A attempts may restart restructuring efforts under current supportive policies [4] 3. **Change in Controlling Shareholder**: A change in controlling shareholder may lead to new asset injections or strategic realignments [4] 4. **Market Value Management for Long-Term Undervalued Companies**: Companies with long-term undervaluation may use restructuring to improve quality and valuation [6] 5. **Shell Resource Value**: In a tight IPO environment, companies with low market capitalization and clean balance sheets may serve as shell resources for reverse takeovers [6] 6. **Market Share Expansion by Industry Leaders**: Leading companies with strong cash positions but weak profitability may use M&A to expand market share [7] 7. **Local State-Owned Enterprises**: Local state-owned enterprises, supported by regional policies, may actively engage in M&A to enhance market value and industrial efficiency [7] Regional Policy Support - Regions like Xinjiang, Nanjing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have introduced policies to encourage M&A and restructuring among local state-owned enterprises [65] - These policies aim to improve market value management, enhance industrial concentration, and promote technological innovation [65]

Group 1 - The report anticipates a gradual recovery of the domestic economy in 2025, driven by policy support, with certain industries likely to complete supply-side adjustments and emerge from deflation [3] - The U.S. economy is expected to perform better than Europe, with a weak upward trend in the inventory cycle, although uncertainties such as tariff impacts and geopolitical risks remain [3][4] - The report aims to identify structural opportunities in 2025, focusing on debt reduction, restructuring, certainty in growth, and supply-side improvements [3] Group 2 - In the U.S., the arrival of the Trump 2.0 era is expected to increase uncertainties in trade, fiscal, and monetary policies, potentially escalating global trade tensions and affecting exports and inflation levels [4] - The S&P 500 earnings growth is projected to rise by 13.6% year-on-year in 2025, supported by tax cuts and deregulation policies from the Trump administration [4] - The probability of a severe economic slowdown globally in 2025 is considered low, with a decreasing likelihood of a recession in the U.S. [4] Group 3 - Japan is unlikely to continue raising interest rates in 2025 due to structural issues such as an aging population and weak domestic demand, despite some short-term inflationary pressures [5] - The Bank of Japan is expected to take a cautious approach to monetary policy, influenced by uncertainties stemming from U.S. policies and trade tariffs [5] Group 4 - The Eurozone's economic growth in 2025 may be weaker than expected due to geopolitical risks and trade friction, with the GDP growth rate for Q3 2024 projected at 1.5% [5]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity in the stock market improved in November, with a total fundraising amount of 19.2 billion yuan in the primary market, representing a month-on-month increase of 58.6% [3][21][22] - In the primary market, the IPO fundraising scale was 5.2 billion yuan, up 4.9% month-on-month, while the fundraising from additional share issuance reached 13.9 billion yuan, a significant increase of 96.1% [3][22] - The net reduction in shareholding by major shareholders in the secondary market was 28.6 billion yuan in November, which is an increase of 155.7 billion yuan compared to the previous month [3][28] Group 2 - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market was 1.9676 trillion yuan in November, a decrease of 2.3% compared to the previous month, but an increase of 122.4% year-on-year [3][35] - The issuance scale of equity funds reached a new high in nearly two years, with a total of 108.6 billion yuan in new fund issuance, an increase of 91.1 billion yuan month-on-month [3][39] - The stock investment ratio of open-end funds was 68.43% at the end of November, up from 67.37% at the end of October, indicating a stable investment stance [3][42] Group 3 - The margin financing and securities lending balance reached 1.8444 trillion yuan by the end of November, an increase of 135.5 billion yuan from the end of the previous month, reflecting a gradual warming of market sentiment [3][46] - The report anticipates that the liquidity environment in the A-share market is likely to continue improving, supported by the ongoing issuance of broad-based index funds and the significant increase in equity fund issuance [3][48][50]

Overall Situation - The total issuance scale of funds in November saw a significant rebound, with 1,474 billion units issued, an increase of 1,141 billion units from the previous month, and a year-on-year increase of 171 billion units [12][14] - Equity funds dominated the issuance, accounting for 73.7% of the total, which is a 21.1 percentage point increase from the previous month [14] Active Equity Funds - The issuance scale of active equity funds improved slightly, with 49 billion units issued in November, although this remains at a low level [21] - Among the 15 new active equity funds, 11 were mixed equity funds, totaling 31.8 billion units, which represents 64.4% of the active equity fund issuance [23] Passive Equity Funds - The issuance scale of passive equity funds saw a substantial recovery, with 1,037 billion units issued, an increase of 892 billion units from the previous month [29] - The majority of the 57 new passive equity funds were passive index funds, indicating a preference for strategies that track market indices [32] Bond Funds - The issuance scale of bond funds increased to 375 billion units, a rise of 240 billion units from the previous month, although it remains at a low level compared to historical data [36] - Among the 20 new bond funds, passive index bond funds accounted for the largest share, with 169 billion units issued, representing 45.1% of the total bond fund issuance [36] QDII Funds - The issuance scale of QDII funds decreased to 0.15 billion units, a decline of 2 billion units from the previous month, reflecting ongoing volatility in this segment [41] FOF Funds - The issuance scale of FOF funds increased significantly to 6 billion units, with 3 new funds launched, indicating a recovery in this category [46]

Group 1: US Stock Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the S&P 500 revenue growth was 5.5%, slightly up from 5.3% in Q2 2024, indicating a stable upward trend since H2 2023 [3][18]. - The EPS growth for the S&P 500 in Q3 2024 was 5.9%, down from 11.4% in Q2 2024, but still above the 10-year median of 4.4% [3][25]. - The ROE (TTM) for the S&P 500 in Q3 2024 was 18.7%, unchanged from Q2 2024, reflecting a solid profitability level [3][37]. Group 2: Sector Performance in US Market - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and healthcare sectors led the revenue growth in Q3 2024, with information technology at 12.9% and healthcare at 10.3% [3][21]. - EPS growth in Q3 2024 was highest in the communications services sector at 23.2%, followed by healthcare at 13.6% [3][30]. - The energy sector faced significant challenges, with a revenue decline of -5.4%, attributed to pressure on energy prices [3][21]. Group 3: European Stock Market Overview - In Q3 2024, the Stoxx Europe 600 revenue growth was -1.4%, a decline from 0.2% in Q2 2024, indicating weak revenue performance [4][11]. - The EPS growth for European stocks improved to 4.2% in Q3 2024, a significant recovery from -9.9% in Q2 2024 [4][12]. - The ROE (TTM) for European stocks in Q3 2024 was 13.3%, down from 13.7% in the previous quarter, showing a lag compared to US stocks [4][15]. Group 4: 2025 Outlook for US and European Markets - The outlook for the US stock market remains positive for 2025, driven by strong economic resilience, although caution is advised regarding potential tariff impacts [5][6]. - European stocks are expected to see earnings improvement in 2025, but are unlikely to surpass US stock performance due to ongoing tariff threats and lower valuation levels [6][26]. - The valuation of European stocks is currently at a historical low, presenting potential value for conservative investors [6][27].

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Stronger than the Market" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [3] Core Views - The coal industry is experiencing a golden era due to energy security concerns and policy support, with supply constraints driven by strict capacity controls and regional supply differentiation [2] - Coal demand remains resilient despite macroeconomic challenges, with thermal coal prices staying above 800 yuan/ton in 2024, and the report expects coal prices to remain high with strong profit sustainability for coal companies [2] - The report recommends focusing on companies with excellent resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, as well as those benefiting from coal-electricity integration and long-term supply tightness [2] Weekly Market Review - The coal index slightly underperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly decline of 0.02% compared to a 1.32% rise in the CSI 300 [17] - Year-to-date, the coal index has risen by 3.06%, significantly underperforming the CSI 300's 14.15% gain [17] - The coal sector's PE ratio is 12.3x, ranking third from the bottom among all A-share industries, while the PB ratio is 1.34x, placing it in the lower-middle range [19] Thermal Coal Market - As of November 29, 2024, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price was 818 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton week-on-week (-0.7%) [2] - Coal inventories at power plants, ports, and coal companies are declining, with power plant daily consumption rising due to lower temperatures [2] - Methanol and urea operating rates remain at historically high levels, with methanol at 85.3% (-1.6pct week-on-week) and urea at 83.6% (+1.8pct week-on-week) [2] Coking Coal Market - The Jingtang Port main coking coal price remained stable at 1,640 yuan/ton as of November 29, 2024 [2] - Iron water production slightly declined, but coking coal prices are expected to remain stable due to policy support [2] - The operating rate of large coking plants (>2 million tons) increased to 78.4%, up 0.8pct week-on-week [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia increased slightly, with a combined operating rate of 84.5%, up 0.3pct week-on-week [51] - Power plant coal consumption rose to 820,000 tons/day, up 0.6% week-on-week, while inventories decreased by 4.7 million tons (-0.3%) [53] - Methanol and urea operating rates showed mixed trends, with methanol down 1.6pct and urea up 1.8pct week-on-week [60][62] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments, stable operations, and high dividend payouts, such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy [2] - Companies benefiting from coal-electricity integration, such as Xinji Energy and Shaanxi Energy, are also recommended [2] - Additionally, companies with potential for production increases and global resource scarcity, such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Pingdingshan Tianan Coal, are highlighted [2]