2024 年 03 月 01 日 固定收益类●证券研究报告 拓普转债投资价值分析 2024.2.29 资产配置周报（2024-2-25）-下调十债收益 率中枢预估 2024.2.25 地方债发行计划半月报-2024 年一季度地方 债发行计划已披露 19135 亿元 2024.2.17 航空运输、货币金融服务、文化体育娱乐等行业 PMI 位于 60 以上高位景气区间。 较弱的方面，房地产、居民服务等行业 PMI 则继续低于临界点。从市场预期看， 服务业业务活动预期回落 1.2 至 58.1，持续位于较高景气区间，多数服务业企业对 近期市场发展继续看好。 三、财新制造业 PMI 与中采 PMI 继续背离，但有部分一致性，中采 PMI 或更具广 泛代表性；两者差异侧面反映不同规模企业经营情况的差异拉大。 1）2 月，国家统计局制造业 PMI 与财新中国制造业 PMI 连续第四个月出现背离。 过去四个月，财新中国制造业 PMI 分别录得 50.7、50.8、50.8、50.9，经济景气 度持续向好；国家统计局制造业 PMI 分别录得 49.4、49.0、49.2、49.1，持续低 于荣枯线不过幅度有限。 2）财新 P ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 10% over the next six months compared to the CSI 300 Index [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that major technology companies are increasingly focusing on AIGC (AI-Generated Content), with Apple recently shifting its resources from electric vehicles to AIGC, reflecting a strategic pivot towards AI technologies [1]. - The emergence of new AI models, such as Sora and EMO, signifies significant advancements in multi-modal AI applications, enhancing productivity and content creation capabilities [1]. - The report emphasizes that the breakthroughs in domestic multi-modal video generation technology are likely to catalyze iterative changes in production methods and enrich content creation [1]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that as of February 28, 2024, Apple has acquired 32 AI startups, leading the tech industry in AI acquisitions, surpassing competitors like Google and Meta [1]. - The global market share of iPhone exceeded 20% in 2023, positioning Apple favorably for integrating new AI functionalities into its ecosystem, potentially impacting billions of devices [1]. Key Developments - The launch of the EMO framework by Alibaba's research team represents a breakthrough in AI video generation, allowing for expressive audio-driven portrait video creation from a single photo [1]. - The report mentions that the EMO technology can generate videos up to 1 minute and 30 seconds long, maintaining character consistency and supporting multiple languages, which enhances its application in various fields [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as 蓝色光标 (300058.SZ), 世纪天鸿 (300654.SZ), and others, which are positioned to benefit from the advancements in AIGC and multi-modal technologies [1].

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Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (00992.HK) with an initial coverage [2]. Core Views - Lenovo's revenue has returned to a growth trajectory, driven by AI PCs and servers, with Q3 2024 revenue reaching $15.721 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9% [1]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the gradual recovery of the PC market and the rapid penetration of AI PCs and servers, leading to continuous revenue growth [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, Lenovo reported a net profit of $337 million, a decrease of 23% year-on-year but an increase of 35% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The Intelligent Devices Group (IDG) generated $12.362 billion in revenue, up 7% year-on-year, with an operating profit of $911 million, also up 7% [1]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) saw revenue of $2.473 billion, down 13% year-on-year, with an operating loss of $38 million, a decrease of 187% [1]. - The Solutions and Services Group (SSG) achieved revenue of $2.021 billion, a 10% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit of $412 million, up 11% [1]. Revenue Forecast - The report forecasts Lenovo's overall revenue for FY24, FY25, and FY26 to be $56.052 billion, $60.555 billion, and $67.160 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $945 million, $1.198 billion, and $1.633 billion [4][5]. Business Segment Analysis - IDG revenue is expected to decline by 10% in FY24, followed by growth of 6.9% in FY25 and 9.8% in FY26 [4]. - ISG revenue is projected to decrease by 12% in FY24, then grow by 12.9% in FY25 and 15.3% in FY26 [4]. - SSG revenue is anticipated to grow by 10.4% in FY24, 9.48% in FY25, and 9.3% in FY26 [4]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Lenovo is positioned as a leading player in the global PC market and is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of AI PCs, which is projected to exceed 50% by 2026 [2]. - The company has become the third-largest AI server vendor globally, with AI infrastructure revenue exceeding $2 billion [2]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a comparison of Lenovo's valuation metrics with comparable companies, indicating a P/E ratio of 14.54 for FY24, which is lower than its peers [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the semiconductor industry [1]. Core Insights - The OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) industry showed a trend of quarterly improvement in 2023, driven by AI-related demand, despite a year-over-year revenue decline for most companies [1][2]. - The report highlights that advanced packaging is expected to continue growing, with significant contributions from AI applications and consumer electronics [2][3]. Summary by Sections OSAT Performance - Most OSAT companies experienced a year-over-year revenue decline in 2023, but showed quarterly improvements. For instance, ASE's revenue fell by 15% to 71.878 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 21.8% [1][7]. - Advanced products contributed significantly to revenue, with companies like Amkor reporting a revenue drop of 8% but maintaining growth in advanced packaging [1][14]. - Powertech Technology saw a 16% revenue decline in 2023, but its net profit in Q4 increased by over 190% year-over-year [1][25]. Market Trends - The global smartphone shipment is projected to reach 1.2 billion units in 2024, with foldable phones and AI smartphones driving growth [2][3]. - The PC market is expected to recover in 2024, with AI PCs projected to account for 55% of the market [2][3]. - The automotive sector, particularly in electric vehicles, continues to show strong growth, with 2023 sales reaching 9.587 million units, a 35.8% increase year-over-year [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in advanced packaging, such as Tongfu Microelectronics and JCET, as well as equipment manufacturers like North Huachuang and Zhongwei [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate-B" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 2.225 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.06%, and a net profit of 525 million yuan, which is a 31.26% increase compared to the previous year [2][6]. - The company has a strong order backlog of 3.483 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38.4% [2]. - The company is positioned well in three major markets: digital power grid, smart city, and overseas markets, which are expected to drive future growth [2][6]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 4.3 yuan per 10 shares, with a total payout of 210 million yuan, marking a 30% increase in cash dividends year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported a gross margin of 40.79%, an increase of 3.67 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 23.60%, up by 3.63 percentage points [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow reached 417 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 62.21% [2]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue since the company went public is 15.65%, and for net profit, it is 24.68% [2]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 2.911 billion yuan, 3.647 billion yuan, and 4.457 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 30.8%, 25.3%, and 22.2% [6][8]. - The net profit for the same years is expected to be 663 million yuan, 802 million yuan, and 958 million yuan, with growth rates of 26.3%, 20.9%, and 19.4% [6][8]. Market Positioning - The company has established a strong presence in the digital power grid sector, with significant contracts won in 2023, and is actively expanding its overseas market presence [2][6]. - The company is focusing on R&D in three major areas, with a 10.22% increase in R&D expenses in 2023, amounting to 227 million yuan [2][6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy - A (Maintain)" [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady commercialization with a narrowing loss year-on-year. In 2023, total product revenue reached $267 million, a 25% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from various products [1] - The company is expected to see strong growth in the sales of its product, Efgartigimod, which was included in medical insurance in December 2023, leading to an estimated revenue of $70 million in 2024 [1] - The pipeline is entering a concentrated harvest period with multiple innovative products expected to be approved or submitted for approval in 2024, indicating robust growth potential [1] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company reported total revenue of $267 million, with a year-on-year growth of 25%. The revenue breakdown includes $169 million from Zelek, $10 million from Efgartigimod, and $47 million from Apatinib [1][2] - The net loss for 2023 was $335 million, a 25% reduction compared to the previous year. Research and development expenses were $266 million, a decrease of 7% [1][2] - The company forecasts revenue growth of 24%, 57%, and 65% for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively, with projected revenues of $267 million, $419 million, and $692 million [2][4] Pipeline and Product Development - Efgartigimod is expected to see significant sales growth following its inclusion in medical insurance, with nearly 1,000 patients treated by the end of January 2024 [1] - The company has several products in its pipeline, including Efgartigimod for CIDP, which is expected to submit for approval in the first half of 2024, and other innovative therapies targeting various conditions [1][4] - The company is actively participating in global clinical trials for its products, indicating a strong commitment to expanding its market presence [1][4]

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Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating, indicating expected investment returns will exceed the CSI 300 Index by more than 10% over the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The issuance of game licenses has shown a positive trend, with 111 domestic games approved in February, marking a continuous increase for three consecutive months [1]. - The gaming industry is experiencing favorable conditions at the start of the year, driven by advancements in AI computing power and the transformation of MR devices, suggesting a trend towards multi-platform connectivity [1]. - High-quality IPs and innovative gameplay are expected to support steady growth in the gaming sector, with significant titles like "Black Myth: Wukong" and "Infinite Warm" receiving attention and approval [1]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report highlights that the number of game licenses has consistently exceeded 100 for three months, with a record high of 115 licenses issued in January 2024 [1]. - The approval of major titles is seen as a positive signal for the industry, enhancing confidence and accelerating monetization of quality content [1]. Market Performance - The report notes a year-on-year performance of the gaming sector, with absolute returns of -0.85% over 1 month, -10.46% over 3 months, and 2.86% over 12 months [1]. - Relative returns indicate a decline of -4.34% over 1 month, -8.7% over 3 months, and an increase of 17.53% over 12 months [1]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Perfect World (002624.SZ), Zhongqingbao (300052.SZ), and 37 Interactive Entertainment (002555.SZ) among others, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the positive industry trends [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the industry, indicating expected performance in line with the market [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the launch of OPPO's Air Glass 3 at MWC 2024, showcasing advancements in augmented reality (AR) technology, including features like real-time information display and AI integration through AndesGPT [1]. - The global AR headset sales reached 518,000 units in 2023, marking a 21% increase from 2022, with consumer-grade AR being the primary growth driver [2]. - The report suggests that Apple's entry into the XR market with Vision Pro is expected to enhance industry growth and penetration rates [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The report notes that the AR headset sales in Q4 2023 were 188,000 units, a 20% year-on-year increase and a 71% quarter-on-quarter increase [1]. - The domestic market for AR headsets saw sales of 64,000 units in Q4 2023, reflecting a 52% year-on-year growth [1]. Key Players and Products - Major brands contributing to AR growth include Thunderbird, Rokid, Xreal, and Viture, particularly in the viewing AR glasses segment [2]. - The report identifies various companies involved in the XR supply chain, such as Zhaowei Electromechanical and BOE Technology Group, which are positioned to benefit from the industry's expansion [2]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that software updates for Air Glass 3 will introduce new functionalities, enhancing user experience and expanding market applications [1]. - The overall sentiment is positive regarding the AR market's trajectory, driven by technological advancements and increased consumer acceptance [2].