Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious approach towards the new stock market, emphasizing the need for flexibility and patience in investment strategies [16][36]. Core Insights - The new stock market has shown increased differentiation, with trading activity cooling down significantly. The average weekly increase for new stocks was approximately 0.5%, down from 2.4% in the previous week, with only 44.6% of new stocks achieving positive returns [16][31]. - Despite external factors such as major meetings and industry events providing some support, the divergence in stock performance is expected to continue. The report highlights that the proportion of stocks with first-day gains below 200% has increased, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [16][31]. - The report suggests that the current pricing and sentiment indicators for new stocks are at relatively high levels compared to historical norms, and if external catalysts weaken, market participants may become more cautious [16][31]. Summary by Sections New Stock Insights - The new stock market is experiencing heightened differentiation, with trading activity declining. The average weekly increase for new stocks was about 0.5%, with only 44.6% of stocks showing positive returns, a significant drop from 73.3% in the previous week [16][31]. - The report notes that while certain sectors like new consumption and AI continue to show momentum, the overall sentiment is becoming more divided, with a notable decrease in the number of stocks achieving significant gains [16][31]. Recent New Stock Performance - Last week, three new stocks were available for online subscription, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of 17.5X and a subscription success rate of 0.0213% [21][22]. - The average first-day increase for new stocks was 361.1%, with a turnover rate of 79.9%. The first-week average increase was 347.8%, indicating stable sentiment despite some differentiation in performance [26][27]. Upcoming New Stock Subscriptions - This week, four new stocks are set to be listed, with an average issuance price-earnings ratio of approximately 22.1X. The report advises caution regarding potential volatility in the short-term trading days following their listing [36][37]. - The report highlights that the average first-day increase for new stocks remains in the 2-3 times range, suggesting continued interest in new stock subscriptions [36][37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][3] Core Views - The report highlights the accelerated development of semiconductor precision components business following the consolidation of Beijing Ruisheng, which is expected to enhance the security and stability of semiconductor equipment supply [2][3] - The company has developed over 40,000 types of semiconductor equipment components, achieving an 85% coverage of industry products [2] - The company is positioned as a leading global manufacturer of ultra-pure metal sputtering targets, with products entering the advanced 3nm process technology, serving major clients like TSMC and SMIC [2][3] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 36.32 billion, 47.54 billion, and 59.57 billion yuan, with growth rates of 39.6%, 30.9%, and 25.3% respectively [3][4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 3.84 billion, 5.16 billion, and 6.70 billion yuan, with growth rates of 50.1%, 34.5%, and 30.0% respectively [3][4] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve slightly from 29.9% in 2022 to 30.7% in 2026 [4] Business Development - The company has established multiple production bases for precision components across the country, integrating its products into the core supply chain of semiconductor clients [2] - The company is actively extending upstream in the supply chain to achieve full autonomy in raw material supply, including metals like aluminum, titanium, and tungsten [2][3] - The company has initiated a project to produce 150,000 pieces of integrated circuit core components annually, focusing on materials such as quartz and silicon [2] Market Position - The company holds the largest global market share in sputtering targets and is expanding its layout in the silicon carbide epitaxy field [3][4] - The report indicates that the demand for sputtering targets is significantly benefiting from the new capacity being established by downstream manufacturers [3]

Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In November, new credit increased by 580 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year decrease of 510 billion RMB[1] - New corporate loans in November were only 250 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 572.1 billion RMB, widening the gap by nearly 200 billion RMB compared to October[1] - Household loans in November amounted to 270 billion RMB, showing a slight year-on-year decrease of 22.5 billion RMB[1] Group 2: Social Financing and Debt Replacement - New social financing in November was 2.3 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion RMB[1] - The issuance of replacement bonds has not significantly boosted social financing due to a high base from last year's issuance of 1 trillion RMB in government bonds[1] - The stock of social financing remained stable at 7.8% year-on-year, slightly above expectations by 0.2 percentage points[1] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Future Outlook - The monetary policy is shifting back to a "moderately loose" direction, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2025[1] - The forecast for loan growth in 2025 is expected to decline further, with social financing slightly retreating under government debt financing support[1] - The overall credit financing demand is expected to contract, lacking momentum for a trend reversal[1]

Market Style Shifts - Year-end shifts between large-cap and small-cap styles are uncommon, with only 3 occurrences in November or December since 2010 [1] - Key factors influencing large-cap vs small-cap shifts include policy, external events, liquidity, and earnings [1] - Year-end shifts between growth and value styles are more common, with 5 occurrences in November or December since 2005 [2] - Growth vs value shifts are influenced by policy, external events, industry cycles, and liquidity [2] Current Market Trends - The market is likely to favor small-cap growth stocks at year-end due to supportive policies, limited external risks, and loose liquidity [2] - The A-share market may continue its strong performance, with the cross-year rally likely to persist [3] - Economic and earnings recovery trends remain intact, with weak economic recovery and improving corporate profits [3] - Liquidity is expected to remain loose, with the Fed likely to cut rates in December and domestic rate cuts or RRR reductions probable [3] Sector Focus - Technology growth and core assets are expected to benefit from fiscal and monetary policy easing [4] - Consumer sectors may present short-term opportunities, driven by economic recovery, policy stimulus, and potential foreign capital inflows [4] - Key sectors to watch include electronics, computers, media, military, machinery, food, automotive, retail, and services [4] Industry Performance - Technology and cyclical sectors are likely to outperform due to fiscal expansion and monetary easing [77] - Consumer sectors may see relative outperformance due to economic recovery, policy support, and foreign capital inflows [93] - Technology growth and core assets, particularly in TMT, machinery, and military sectors, are recommended for low-level allocation [107] Specific Industry Insights - Electronics: AI-driven product launches and semiconductor demand are expected to boost the sector [107] - Computers: Policy support for autonomous driving and domestic software growth are key drivers [107] - Media: AI applications and domestic AI ecosystem development are accelerating [107] - Machinery and Military: Increased demand for robots and industrial automation is driving growth [107] - Consumer: Food, automotive, retail, and services sectors may benefit from policy support and economic recovery [114] - New Energy and Healthcare: Wind power, energy storage, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to improve [116]

Group 1: Credit and Loan Trends - In November, new credit increased by 580 billion RMB, a significant year-on-year decrease of 510 billion RMB, indicating a deeper decline compared to October[2] - New corporate loans in November were only 250 billion RMB, down by 572.1 billion RMB year-on-year, with a gap of nearly 200 billion RMB compared to October[2] - The issuance of replacement bonds has led to a rapid repayment of hidden debts, with short-term loans being repaid at a slightly higher rate than medium to long-term loans[2] Group 2: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - New social financing in November was 2.3 trillion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 119.7 billion RMB, with the stock of social financing remaining flat at 7.8% year-on-year[2] - The rapid repayment of corporate loans has significantly impacted the new RMB loans, which saw a year-on-year decrease of 589.7 billion RMB[2] - M2 growth rate fell by 0.4 percentage points to 7.1% in November, indicating a potential further decline in credit and M2 growth rates in the future[2] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The monetary policy is expected to shift back to a "moderately loose" direction, with anticipated rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, but not a return to quantitative easing[2] - The overall credit financing demand is expected to contract, lacking momentum for a trend reversal, as policies emphasize economic transformation and risk prevention[2] - Risks include the possibility that the extent of monetary easing may be less than expected, which could impact economic recovery[2]

Group 1: ECB Monetary Policy - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (BP) again, signaling a dovish stance by removing previous language about maintaining a restrictive policy until inflation decreases[11] - The ECB has lowered its economic outlook, predicting that the Eurozone's HICP and core HICP will fall to 1.9% by 2026, with a total of 100 BP cut across four rate reductions so far[11] - ECB President Lagarde highlighted significant downside risks to growth, particularly due to trade restrictions and protectionist measures from the U.S.[11] Group 2: Global Economic Context - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) preemptively cut rates by 50 BP to 0.5%, exceeding market expectations, which may foreshadow similar actions by the ECB[13] - The U.S. dollar index has surged past 107, driven by persistent core inflation, creating depreciation pressure on non-U.S. currencies[11] - The report anticipates that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates by a total of 50 BP in the first half of 2025, with no further cuts expected thereafter[15] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Risks - U.S. core CPI remained stable at a high level for the fourth consecutive month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[15] - The report warns of potential passive depreciation pressure on the Chinese yuan if the Fed's rate cuts are less than expected[16] - The Eurozone is not expected to face significant inflation risks despite euro depreciation, as the primary risk stems from weakening domestic demand[13]

44 下 下 下 = | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 13 日 \n提振消费·扩张财政·对冲风险 \n中央经济工作会议深度解读 ...

http://www.huajinsc.cn/ 1 / 10 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 下 下 = | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 年 12 月 13 日 \n积极的政策进一步确认， A 股慢牛延续 | 策略类●证券研究报告 \n事件点评 | | 投资要点 | 邓利军 | | 事件： 12 月 11 日至 12 日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。 | 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号： S0910523080001 denglijun@huajinsc.cn | | 会议定调积极，重点细化政治局会议定调的方向。（1）本次中央经济工作会议主 | 报告联系人 张欣诺 | | 要细化政治局会议上定调的财政发力、货币适度宽松等政策方向，明确 9 大重点任 | zhangx ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected increase in stock price relative to the market index over the next 6-12 months [51]. Core Viewpoints - The company focuses on high-performance rare earth permanent magnet materials, primarily serving the downstream sectors of new energy vehicles, wind power generation, energy-saving appliances, and 3C consumer electronics [23][36]. - The company has established itself as a core supplier of high-performance NdFeB materials in China, leveraging its location in Baotou, known as the "Rare Earth Capital," and its dual business model of "raw materials + finished products" [36][40]. - The company is accelerating its international expansion, with a significant increase in export sales, particularly to Europe, Japan, and South Korea, where the sales revenue proportion rose from 23.03% in 2021 to 48.30% in the first half of 2024 [36][40]. Financial Summary - The company reported revenues of 1.825 billion, 2.885 billion, and 2.651 billion yuan for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 58.78%, 58.03%, and -8.09% [5][6][24]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the same years was 143 million, 223 million, and 169 million yuan, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 9.38%, 55.79%, and -24.25% [9][10][24]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company achieved revenues of 1.937 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.40%, and a net profit of 107 million yuan, down 8.06% year-on-year [24]. Industry Overview - The rare earth permanent magnet materials industry in China benefits from the country's leading position in rare earth reserves and production, which supports the industry's development [31]. - The global demand for high-performance rare earth permanent magnets is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in new energy and energy-saving sectors, with a projected compound annual growth rate of 17.2% from 2023 to 2028 [35]. Competitive Comparison - Compared to peer companies, the average revenue for comparable companies in 2023 was 3.949 billion yuan, with an average PS-TTM of 2.74X and an average gross profit margin of 14.34% [46][47]. - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 2.651 billion yuan, which is below the industry average, while its gross profit margin is comparable to that of its peers [46][47].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Leading the Market," indicating an expected outperformance of over 10% relative to the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The game "Black Myth: Wukong," developed by Game Science, has won significant awards, including "Best Action Game" and "Player's Voice" at The Game Awards, showcasing the global recognition of high-quality Chinese IPs [2]. - The game has achieved over 22.1 million copies sold on Steam, generating total revenue exceeding 1 billion USD (approximately 7 billion RMB), marking a significant milestone for domestic AAA games [2]. - A report indicates that over 90% of respondents have used IP-related products in the past year, with 68% willing to pay for game-related IP products, highlighting a strong consumer preference for quality IP in the gaming sector [2]. Summary by Sections Event Highlights - "Black Myth: Wukong" received world-class awards, reflecting the technological advancements and cultural impact of domestic games [2]. - The game has garnered over 1 million user reviews on Steam, with a 96% positive rating, indicating strong player satisfaction [2]. Market Trends - The report from Gamma Data shows a strong preference for IP products in gaming, with over 77% of users wanting to see more IP products in the gaming sector [2]. - Quality IP is expected to drive growth in the gaming industry and related sectors, suggesting a multi-dimensional empowerment of games and derivative products [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality IP's positive impact on entertainment products centered around gaming. Recommended stocks include Tencent Holdings, NetEase, and Bilibili, among others [2].