Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In October, industrial enterprise profits decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, with a significant narrowing of the decline from 10.0% in September, reflecting a 17.1 percentage point improvement[1] - Industrial revenue showed a slight recovery of 0.2% year-on-year in October, indicating limited improvement due to the deepening decline in PPI[1] - The cumulative cost rate increased by 0.01 percentage points to 1.5%, with revenue costs rising by 0.5 percentage points, further dragging down profit margins by 3.4 percentage points to -16.3%[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Profitability - The reduction in LPR by 25 basis points led to a significant decrease in enterprise expenses, with the cumulative expense ratio falling by 0.04 percentage points to 8.42%[1] - Non-operating profits, primarily from investment income, rebounded by 11.4 percentage points to +3.5%, contributing to the narrowing profit decline[1] - The mining industry saw a profit decline deepening by 2.0 percentage points to -12.7%, while manufacturing profits fell by 0.4 percentage points to -4.2%[2] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - Nominal and actual inventory levels dropped significantly, with nominal finished goods inventory down 0.7 percentage points to 39% year-on-year[2] - Actual inventory also decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 7.0%, indicating a moderate pace of replenishment influenced by ongoing price declines[2] - The recovery in consumer demand is primarily driven by fiscal subsidies, but businesses remain cautious about the sustainability of this demand[2]

华 发 集 团 旗 下 企 业 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------------------------|----------------| | 2024 年 11 月 27 日 \n传媒 | | | 行业研究●证券研究报告 \n行业快报 | | | | | | | | | IP 衍生品供需两端共助生态 | 投资评级 | | 领先大市(维持) | | | | 首选股票 | | | 评级 | | 投资要点 | | | | | | 衍生品顺应当前消费者注重商品情绪价值的需求。根据中国新闻周刊发布的 | | | | | | IP 《 2024 有意思生活方式报告》显示，随着物质条件的日益丰富，当代年轻人对 | 一年行业表现 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The demand recovery in the communication sector is improving, with significant growth expected in 5G RedCap and smart modules. The embedded AI cellular module is projected to account for 25% of all cellular IoT module shipments by 2030, up from 6% in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% [1] - Revenue growth is observed across key companies, with YD Communication reporting a revenue of 13.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.9%, and net profit of 347 million yuan. Guanghe Communication's revenue reached 6.217 billion yuan, up 5.12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 657 million yuan. Meige Intelligent's revenue was 2.182 billion yuan, showing a 39.9% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 90.5 million yuan [1] - The market for communication modules is primarily concentrated in automotive, laptops, mobile devices, and IoT sectors. The global cellular IoT module shipments grew by 11% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter, driven mainly by demand from China and India [1] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - Preferred stocks include: - Meige Intelligent (002881.SZ) - Rating: Accumulate - Guanghe Communication (300638.SZ) - Rating: Accumulate - YD Communication (603236.SH) - Rating: Accumulate [1] Market Trends - The commercial launch of 5G RedCap is imminent, with chip/module manufacturers introducing product iterations. 5G RedCap aims to reduce costs and power consumption while enhancing the overall demand for IoT markets [1] - The demand for high-performance computing modules is expanding, with embedded AI cellular modules expected to grow significantly in the coming years [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has received its first customer order for temporary bonding adhesive, marking a significant step in its strategic transformation [8][9] - The annual production capacity for temporary bonding adhesive exceeds 100 tons, which is expected to meet ongoing customer demand [9] - The company has successfully developed key technologies for high-temperature resistance and low volatility in its products, reducing reliance on imports [9] - The company aims to establish itself as a platform for innovative materials that can replace imports, particularly in the semiconductor advanced packaging materials sector [10][16] Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 32.18 billion, 38.19 billion, and 44.61 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.7%, 18.7%, and 16.8% respectively [11] - Net profit for the same period is projected to be 481 million, 662 million, and 821 million yuan, with growth rates of 116.8%, 37.5%, and 24.1% respectively [11] - The company has shown a significant year-on-year increase in net profit, with a 82.7% increase in 2022 and a forecasted 116.8% increase in 2024 [17] Market Position - The company has established itself as a primary supplier of CMP polishing pads to several core domestic wafer manufacturers, indicating a deepening market penetration [16] - The company is actively developing a range of semiconductor materials, including CMP polishing liquids and advanced packaging materials, which are expected to drive future growth [9][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected relative increase of more than 15% in the next 6-12 months compared to the relevant market index [53]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Kolon New Materials, has established itself as a significant supplier and service provider in the domestic coal machinery sector, focusing on hydraulic support systems and auxiliary transportation equipment for coal mining [15][41]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase of 7.55% to 12.98% for 2024, alongside a net profit growth of 1.24% to 7.60% [16][41]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 313 million CNY, 329 million CNY, and 442 million CNY for the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 41.88%, 5.19%, and 34.23% [16]. - The net profits for the same years were 66.1 million CNY, 52 million CNY, and 83.4 million CNY, with year-over-year growth rates of 127.47%, -21.40%, and 60.41% [16]. Industry Situation - The company operates within the rubber and plastic products industry and the coal machinery manufacturing sector, which are both experiencing stable growth [28]. - The hydraulic support equipment market is projected to reach a total market space of 1,798 billion CNY from 2023 to 2025, indicating strong demand and growth potential in the coal machinery sector [37]. Company Highlights - The company has developed a comprehensive service model around hydraulic supports, enhancing its relationships with major clients in the coal industry, including Shaanxi Coal Group and China Shenhua [41]. - The company is actively expanding its rubber and plastic products into new industries such as military, high-speed rail, and wind power, with established product lines for various applications [43]. Investment Projects - The company plans to invest in three main projects through its IPO proceeds, including a new production line for synthetic materials, a research and development center, and a digital factory to enhance operational efficiency [44]. Peer Comparison - Compared to its peers in the industry, Kolon New Materials has a lower revenue scale but maintains a higher sales gross margin, indicating competitive positioning despite smaller size [48].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating that it is expected to outperform the market index by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [62]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Xianfeng Jingke (688605.SH), is a key manufacturer of critical components in the domestic semiconductor etching and thin film deposition equipment sector, focusing on etching and deposition equipment [14][25]. - The company has established long-term strategic partnerships with leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers, positioning itself favorably in the market [14][47]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a projected revenue increase of 79.30% to 97.23% in 2024, alongside a substantial rise in net profit [55]. Summary by Sections Basic Financial Status - The company achieved revenues of 4.24 billion, 4.70 billion, and 5.58 billion yuan in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 110.20%, 10.87%, and 18.73% [15]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.05 billion, 1.05 billion, and 0.80 billion yuan for the same years, with year-over-year changes of 373.57%, -0.38%, and -23.39% [15]. - For the first nine months of 2024, the company reported revenues of 8.69 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 133.12%, and a net profit of 1.75 billion yuan, up 249.03% [15]. Industry Situation - The domestic semiconductor equipment industry is experiencing rapid growth, driven by the fast development of downstream sectors. In 2022, the sales of semiconductor equipment in mainland China reached 28.3 billion USD, accounting for 26.30% of the global market [26]. - The market for etching equipment in 2023 is estimated at 7.6 billion USD, representing 20.77% of the total semiconductor equipment market, while thin film deposition equipment is projected at 8 billion USD, or 21.86% [28]. Company Highlights - The company is one of the few domestic manufacturers capable of mass-producing critical components for etching equipment at 7nm and below, with its products accounting for over 40% of total revenue [47]. - The company is expanding into the photovoltaic and medical equipment sectors, leveraging its existing technology and production capabilities [48]. Investment Projects - The company plans to invest in three projects through its IPO proceeds, including the expansion of a precision assembly base, a production and assembly base for equipment modules, and a precision manufacturing technology research center [53][54]. Comparison with Peers - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 5.58 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 18.73%, and a net profit of 0.80 billion yuan, down 23.39% [55]. - Compared to peer companies, the average revenue for comparable companies was 12.73 billion yuan, with an average gross margin of 32.49%, indicating that the company is currently below industry averages in both revenue and profitability metrics [58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market" for the industry [3]. Core Views - The lithium battery industry is expected to gradually improve production scheduling, with industry valuations at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery. Key companies to watch include CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others in various segments such as cathodes, separators, anodes, electrolytes, and auxiliary materials [1][26]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the price of polysilicon has stabilized, with domestic block material prices ranging from 36 to 42 RMB per kilogram. The report suggests monitoring companies like Longi Green Energy, JA Solar, and Trina Solar [2][27]. - The wind power sector has seen significant growth, with 45.8 million kilowatts of new wind power installed from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 8.49 million kilowatts. The report highlights investment opportunities in offshore wind projects and suggests companies like Dongfang Cable and Sany Heavy Energy [2][28][32]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - Yiwei Lithium Energy's cylindrical battery project has successfully topped out, with an investment exceeding 10 billion RMB. CATL's second-generation sodium-ion battery is set to launch in 2025, and the first railway transport of lithium batteries has been successfully conducted [1][20]. - Yiwei plans to introduce a high-power, all-solid-state battery by 2026 and a 400Wh/kg high-energy version by 2028. The company has also signed a global strategic cooperation framework agreement with InnoVate for battery separator procurement [1][25]. New Energy Power Generation - The report notes stable pricing in the silicon material segment, with P-type silicon wafer prices at 1.1-1.15 RMB per piece and N-type prices at 1.4-1.43 RMB per piece. The photovoltaic industry is advised to focus on companies like Longi Green Energy and JA Solar [2][27]. - The wind power sector has seen a significant increase in installed capacity, with ongoing projects in offshore wind energy, particularly in Fujian, which is expected to contribute significantly to future installations [2][28][32]. Energy Storage and Power Equipment - National power generation equipment utilization averaged 2880 hours from January to October, a decrease of 128 hours year-on-year. Investment in power generation projects reached 718.1 billion RMB, up 8.3% year-on-year, while grid investment grew by 20.7% to 450.2 billion RMB [2][33]. - The report emphasizes the importance of flexible power sources and the ongoing reforms in the electricity market, suggesting a focus on companies involved in high-voltage transmission and smart grid technologies [2][34].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook, indicating expected relative performance exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [2][3]. Core Insights - The completion of the new base for Tongfu Microelectronics (通富微电) in Suzhou focuses on advanced packaging and testing for high-end processors, particularly FCBGA technology, which is expected to achieve mass production by January 2025 [2]. - The company is the fourth largest packaging and testing enterprise globally and has a significant partnership with AMD, enhancing its position in the xPU market [3]. - The cloud computing market in China is projected to grow significantly, with a total market size of 616.5 billion in 2023, reflecting a 35.5% increase from 2021, and is expected to exceed 2.1 trillion by 2027 [2][3]. - The integration of AI and cloud computing is anticipated to drive demand for high-performance computing chips, with the global AI chip market expected to grow by 33% in 2024 [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are 23.806 billion, 28.231 billion, and 32.813 billion respectively, with growth rates of 6.9%, 18.6%, and 16.2% [3][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 804 million, 1.205 billion, and 1.567 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 374.4%, 50.0%, and 30.0% respectively [3][4]. - The company maintains a gross margin of approximately 13.7% in 2024, improving to 14.4% and 14.7% in the following years [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its advanced packaging capabilities, with over 70% of its revenue coming from this segment, and is investing in R&D for new technologies [2][3]. - The introduction of new packaging technologies, such as Cornerfill and CPB, aims to improve chip reliability and performance, catering to the growing demand in sectors like AI and cloud computing [2][3]. - The company is also focusing on expanding its product offerings in high-performance computing and advanced packaging platforms to meet the evolving needs of its clients [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report suggests maintaining a cautious and patient approach towards new stocks as the current active cycle may be nearing its end [1][12][34] Core Insights - The new stock market has shown a weak performance for the second consecutive week, with an average weekly decline of approximately 1.5% and only 25.7% of new stocks achieving positive returns [1][12][28] - The report highlights the need to monitor subtle emotional indicators as the market may be entering a correction phase, suggesting a potential shift in the active cycle of new stocks [1][12][34] - The average issuance price-to-earnings ratio for new stocks has increased significantly, with the average for November being 58.9X, influenced by high-growth stocks like Lianyun Technology [1][12][34] Summary by Sections New Stock Insights - The new stock market has experienced a significant emotional shift, with the structural buying momentum still present despite recent cooling [1][12] - The report indicates that the current emotional and pricing indicators are at relatively high levels, which may face downward adjustments soon [1][12][34] Recent New Stock Performance - Last week, three new stocks were available for online subscription, with an average issuance P/E ratio of 68.3X and a subscription success rate of 0.0444% [1][19][20] - The average first-day gain for newly listed stocks was 252%, while the average return for the first week was 226.3% [1][23][26] Upcoming New Stock Subscriptions - Four new stocks are set to be listed this week, with one each from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, the Growth Enterprise Market, the Main Board, and the North Exchange [1][34][35] - The report recommends continued attention to new stock subscriptions due to the unchanged profit-making effect [1][34]

短期继续震荡，科技仍有空间 定期报告 投资要点 突破震荡市的核心推动因素是政策和流动性，短期内仍需等待更宽松的政策和流动 性。（1）历史经验上，突破震荡市走牛的核心推动因素是政策和外部事件、流动 性。（2）当前来看，震荡时间和回撤幅度接近历史水平，但短期可能继续震荡。 一是 10 月 8 日以来已震荡 34 个交易日，上证综指最大回撤幅度为 9.2%，已接近 历史平均水平。二是短期内政策方向和流动性依然积极，但仍需进一步才能突破当 前的震荡：首先，后续政治局会议和中央经济工作会议可能是政策进一步积极的观 察窗口；其次，近期美元走强，但国内年末降准等流动性进一步宽松的政策可能出 台。 板块连续多空急剧转换，本周可能成为重要 科技行情结束的核心因素是外部事件和政策偏空、自身产业趋势转弱、流动性收紧、 继续调整幅度有限 2024.11.16 政策预期及资金共振之下做多动能增强，但 结构性震荡特征预计未改-华金证券新股周 报 2024.11.10 估值情绪过高。（1）外部事件和政策偏空是导致科技行情结束的核心因素，如 2010 年欧债危机、2016 年供给侧改革、2021 年医保控费和新能源补贴退坡等。（2） 自身产 ...