证 研 报 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 电子(申万) 11.2 1.0 -4.5 沪深 300 12.7 7.0 0.4 行 业 研 究 纯血鸿蒙即将公测，特斯拉即将发布 Robotaxi —电子行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：毛正 S1050521120001 maozheng@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：吕卓阳 S1050523060001 lvzy@cfsc.com.cn 市场表现 S 2024 年 09 月 29 日 (%) 电子 沪深300 -30 -20 -10 行业相对表现 10 0 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电子行业周报：华为有望推出 鸿蒙版 PC，高通向英特尔发出收购 要约》2024-09-23 2、《电子行业周报：苹果 iPhone16 和华为三折叠手机发布，上海微电 子极紫外相关专利公布》2024-09- 17 3、《电子行业周报：苹果与华为下 周同日开启新品发布会，首款 AI 手 机与三折手机共同闪耀市场》2024- 09-08 ▌ 上周回顾 9 月 23 日-9 月 27 日当周，申万一级行业均处于上涨态势。 其中电子行业上涨 4.44%，位列 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [7] Core Insights - The domestic automotive retail sales are expected to reach 22.3 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3% [5] - The growth in retail sales is driven by the continuous implementation of the vehicle replacement policy and the launch of competitive new models [6] - The number of applications for vehicle scrapping and replacement subsidies has exceeded 1.13 million, indicating strong demand [5][6] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a performance of 15.7% over the last month, 6.3% over the last three months, and 1.8% over the last year, outperforming the CSI 300 index [1][2] Policy Impact - The government has introduced measures to promote vehicle replacement, including increasing subsidy standards and improving application processes [5] - The number of scrapped vehicles has increased by 42.4% year-on-year from January to August 2024, with significant monthly growth rates observed since the implementation of the subsidy policy [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that have deep collaborations with Huawei, such as Seres and JAC Motors, as well as on automotive parts manufacturers benefiting from industry restructuring and technological changes [7] - Specific growth areas highlighted include lightweight components, interior and exterior parts, smart vehicles, and the integration of automotive and robotics technologies [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry, indicating an expected performance exceeding 10% relative to the benchmark index [11]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's second-phase factory construction is progressing smoothly, with the foundation work completed, and the overall production capacity is expected to exceed initial forecasts [5][6]. - The company has acquired land for expansion, with a recent purchase of a 531,000 square meter plot for 840 million yuan, indicating strong growth potential in the electric vehicle sector [5][6]. - Upcoming vehicle models include the Xiaomi SU7 Ultra and a new pure electric SUV, MX11, set to launch in 2025, along with an extended-range SUV, N3, in 2026, highlighting the urgency for production capacity expansion [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a performance of 12.5% over the last month, 6.3% over three months, and 1.8% over twelve months, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. Company Developments - Xiaomi's second-phase factory is under construction, with significant land acquisitions for future expansion, including a 176,000 square meter plot with a starting price of 226 million yuan [5][6]. - The company is strategically planning to enhance its production capabilities to meet the anticipated demand for new models [5][6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong outlook for Xiaomi's automotive division, particularly with the successful launch of the Xiaomi SU7, which has exceeded pre-launch sales expectations [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][3]. Core Insights - The company's performance meets expectations, with a focus on accelerating global expansion [2]. - In H1 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 6.16 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.1% [2]. - The company is deepening its partnerships with high-quality clients such as Geely, Chery, Li Auto, and BYD, driving stable revenue growth [2]. - The company is expanding its product categories, with significant revenue growth in dashboard assemblies and exterior accessories [2]. - The company is actively enhancing its domestic and international industrial layout, including the construction of a research center in Shanghai and expanding production bases in Mexico, the United States, and Slovakia [2]. Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 10.57 billion, 13.77 billion, 17.53 billion, and 21.73 billion for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively, with growth rates of 52.2%, 30.2%, 27.3%, and 24.0% [4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 806 million, 1.11 billion, 1.49 billion, and 1.83 billion for the same years, with growth rates of 71.2%, 38.2%, 33.5%, and 23.0% [4]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.65, 2.28, 3.05, and 3.75 for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E respectively [4]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to increase from 16.1% in 2023A to 21.6% in 2026E [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [6][12]. Core Insights - The launch of Tencent's first wheeled humanoid robot, "Xiao Wu," is seen as a significant development in the robotics sector, which is expected to drive growth in the automotive industry [2][5]. - The demand for caregiving robots is projected to increase due to a growing shortage of nursing staff, with an estimated shortfall of 5.7 million nurses by 2030 as one-sixth of the global population will be aged 60 or older [5]. - The report highlights the multi-functional design of "Xiao Wu," which can adapt to various work environments and perform tasks such as carrying and assisting individuals [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The automotive sector has shown a performance of 15.7% over the last month, 6.3% over the last three months, and 1.8% over the last year, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies in the robotics sector, specifically recommending stocks such as Shuanglin Co. and Beite Technology, with respective buy ratings [6][8]. Company Analysis - Shuanglin Co. is currently priced at 16.75 with an EPS forecast of 0.20 for 2023, 0.99 for 2024, and 1.03 for 2025, indicating a PE ratio of 83.75 for 2023 and 16.92 for 2024 [8]. - Beite Technology is priced at 21.20 with an EPS forecast of 0.14 for 2023, 0.20 for 2024, and 0.36 for 2025, showing a PE ratio of 151.43 for 2023 and 106.00 for 2024 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the chemical industry, including China Petroleum, Sinopec, and others [7]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests focusing on undervalued, high-dividend companies like China Petroleum due to the recent drop in oil prices, which is expected to ease cost pressures and improve profitability [4][14]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter its best demand season of the year, with specific recommendations to pay attention to sectors like tires, upstream mining, and titanium dioxide [6][15]. - The report highlights that many sub-sectors within the chemical industry have shown poor performance due to capacity expansions and weak demand, but some sectors, such as tires and upstream mining, have exceeded expectations [5][15]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the refining sector, particularly China Petroleum, as oil prices are under pressure [4][14]. - It notes that international oil prices have recently declined, with WTI at $68.18 per barrel, down 3.97% from the previous week, and Brent at $71.98, down 3.37% [14][15]. - The report indicates that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from a seasonal demand increase as the "golden September and silver October" approach [6][15]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were observed in international gasoline (up 3.50%) and diesel (up 3.47%), while products like titanium concentrate and PVA saw declines [14][15]. - The report details that the prices of several chemical products have rebounded due to improving downstream demand, although many products still face price declines [5][15]. Focus on Leading Companies - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sub-sectors, such as Wanhua Chemical in polyurethane, Hualu Hengsheng in coal chemical, and Longbai Group in titanium dioxide [6][15]. - It highlights the potential for valuation recovery among leading companies in the chemical sector, particularly those with strong cost advantages and stable competitive landscapes [6][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [6]. Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is experiencing a strong rebound, particularly in the liquor segment, driven by favorable monetary policies and positive signals from political meetings, which have boosted market confidence and liquidity [6]. - The report emphasizes the strong anti-risk capability and profitability of the liquor sector, suggesting that despite a slower recovery in demand compared to market sentiment, there are still strong performance indicators for certain stocks [6]. - The report recommends focusing on undervalued stocks with strong earnings certainty, particularly in the liquor segment, highlighting specific companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao [6]. Summary by Sections Industry News - 16 liquor stocks rose over 10% on the same day [13]. - The liquor industry is seeing significant developments, including the establishment of a 10 billion yuan liquor packaging park in Xishui and the cultivation of four liquor companies with over 1 billion yuan in revenue in Yibin [13][14]. Company News - Moutai has seen substantial fund increases, with multiple funds increasing their holdings by over 10 billion yuan [14]. - Luzhou Laojiao is adjusting its stock repurchase price and has announced the repurchase of some restricted stocks [14]. Investment Strategy - The report maintains a recommended order of sub-sector preference: liquor > beer > snacks = soft drinks > frozen foods > condiments > dairy products [6]. - The liquor sector has shown a weekly increase of 29.49%, benefiting from recent policy changes and market recovery [6]. - The report suggests that while the demand recovery may lag behind market sentiment, certain stocks with strong earnings certainty will support valuations [6]. Key Recommended Stocks - The report highlights specific stocks to focus on, including Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Shanxi Fenjiu, and others in the liquor segment [6]. - For the consumer goods sector, it recommends leading companies in various categories such as condiments, frozen foods, beer, snacks, dairy, and soft drinks [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Changan Automobile [2][8] Core Viewpoints - The launch of the Avita 07, the first pure electric range-extended dual-power model, is expected to enhance Changan's market position and drive sales growth [5][8] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 185.07 billion, 219.79 billion, and 256.31 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.08, 1.29, and 1.57 yuan [8] Summary by Sections Product Launch - The Avita 07 was officially launched on September 26, 2024, with a starting price of 219,900 yuan, featuring both range-extended and pure electric versions [5] - The vehicle dimensions are 4825*1980*1620mm, with a wheelbase of 2940mm, positioning it as a mid-size SUV [5] Powertrain and Performance - The Avita 07 range-extended version is equipped with a 1.5T range extender and offers both two-wheel and four-wheel drive options, with a maximum power output of 115 kW for the range extender and 231 kW for the single motor in the two-wheel drive version [5][6] - The pure electric version features an 800V silicon carbide platform, with a maximum power output of 252 kW and a range of 650 km for the two-wheel drive version [5][6] Intelligent Features - The vehicle is equipped with Huawei's Drive ADS 3.0, which includes 27 high-sensitivity sensors and a 192-line lidar, enhancing the driving experience [6] - The Avita 07 also features the HarmonyOS 4-based cockpit, providing a seamless smart interaction experience [7] Financial Projections - The report forecasts a revenue growth rate of 22.3% for 2024, followed by 18.8% in 2025 and 16.6% in 2026 [9] - The projected net profit for 2024 is 10.72 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 5.4% compared to 2023, but expected to recover with a growth of 19.6% in 2025 [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3] Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, with revenue reaching 970 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders increasing by 143.7% to 40 million yuan [1] - The company is benefiting from the scale effect of new products, particularly in the chassis precision components business, which has seen strong sales growth [1][2] - The commercial vehicle market is expected to recover, positively impacting the company's air conditioning compressor business, which sold 200,500 units in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024H1, the company achieved a revenue of 970 million yuan, up 101.6% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 19.2%, an increase of 8.3 percentage points [1] - The net profit for 2024H1 was 40 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 143.7% [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 2.15 billion yuan for 2024, with net profits expected to reach 73 million yuan, indicating a growth rate of 42.9% [3][5] Business Segments - The chassis business, which includes high-precision components, is a major growth driver, with revenue from this segment reaching 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% [1][2] - The company has established a subsidiary to develop components for humanoid robots, indicating a strategic move into a growing market [2] Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is experiencing significant interest, with substantial investment activity noted in the sector [2] - The commercial vehicle market is projected to recover, which is expected to improve the performance of the company's air conditioning compressor business [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the automotive industry [6]. Core Insights - The launch of the Zhijie R7, a new coupe SUV, is expected to enhance the monthly delivery volume for Hongmeng Zhixing, with over 6,000 units pre-ordered within 24 hours of its release [4][5]. - The performance of Hongmeng Zhixing has been impacted by declining delivery numbers for the Wenjie M7 model, which saw deliveries drop from 18,493 in June to 10,261 in August [4]. - The automotive industry is experiencing a positive outlook, with a focus on companies successfully entering the luxury electric vehicle market, particularly those collaborating closely with Huawei [5][6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector has shown a performance increase of 16.4% over the past month, compared to 12.1% for the CSI 300 index [1]. - The report highlights the relative performance of the automotive industry against the broader market, indicating a stronger growth trajectory [3]. Product Launch Details - The Zhijie R7 features a spacious design with a trunk capacity of 837L, expandable to 2130L, surpassing the Model X in space [4]. - The vehicle is equipped with advanced features such as the Huawei QianKun ADS 3.0 intelligent driving assistance system, enhancing driving safety and efficiency [4]. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies like Seres, Jianghuai, and BAIC Blue Valley, which are well-positioned in the luxury electric vehicle market [5][6]. - It also highlights growth opportunities in the automotive parts sector, particularly in lightweight materials and smart automotive technologies [6].