Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [1][9] Core Views - The company achieved a strong performance in 2024, with total revenue and net profit reaching 174.14 billion and 86.23 billion yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 16% and 15% [5] - The company has announced a three-year dividend plan, maintaining high cash dividends, with a total payout of 64.67 billion yuan in 2024 [5] - The company aims for a revenue growth of approximately 9% in 2025, with expected EPS of 75.23 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company’s stock price is currently at 1568.88 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 1970.8 billion yuan [1] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue and net profit were 51.02 billion and 25.40 billion yuan, showing year-on-year growth of 13% and 16% [5] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 91.93% and 52.27%, with slight decreases compared to the previous year [5] Product Performance - Revenue from Moutai liquor and other series reached 145.93 billion and 24.68 billion yuan in 2024, with year-on-year growth of 15% and 20% [6] - The sales volume of Moutai liquor increased by 10%, while the average price rose by 5% [6] Channel Performance - Revenue from wholesale and direct sales channels was 95.77 billion and 74.84 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 20% and 11% [7] - International revenue surpassed 5 billion yuan for the first time, indicating successful internationalization efforts [8] Profit Forecast - The company forecasts revenue growth of 9.1% for 2025, with net profit expected to grow by 9.6% [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for Qingdao Beer [1][8] Core Views - The company's revenue slightly declined year-on-year due to environmental impacts, with total revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 at 32.138 billion and 4.345 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of -5% and +2% [2] - The company has shown significant cost optimization effects, leading to a slight increase in gross margin, with gross and net profit margins for 2024 at 40% and 14%, respectively, both up by 1.6 and 1.2 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company continues to optimize its product structure and diversify its channels, with a focus on high-end and ultra-high-end products, which accounted for 73% of the main brand's sales in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, total revenue was 3.179 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was -645 million yuan, indicating a slight increase in losses [2] - Operating net cash flow for 2024 was significantly improved, reaching 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86% [2] - The company’s contract liabilities at the end of 2024 were 8.313 billion yuan, an increase of 2.868 billion yuan quarter-on-quarter [2] Product and Market Strategy - Overall beer sales volume and price per ton in 2024 decreased by 5.9% and increased by 0.4%, respectively [3] - The company launched new products such as the "A Series" and "Nika Xi White Beer" to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - The sales ratio of ready-to-drink and non-ready-to-drink markets was 41.2% and 58.8%, respectively, with online product sales increasing by 21% [3] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to have EPS of 3.55, 3.84, and 4.11 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 22, 20, and 19 times [8] - Revenue growth rates are projected at -5.3% for 2024, followed by 4.3%, 3.2%, and 2.9% for the subsequent years [10]

2025 年 04 月 05 日 重回缩表——资产配置周报（2025-4-5） —固定收益周报 投资要点 ▌ 一、国家资产负债表分析 分析师：黄海澜 S1050523050002 S1050524060001 负债端。最新更新的数据显示，2025 年 2 月实体部门负债增 速录得 8.4%，前值 8.5%，略低于我们之前的预期。预计 3 月 实体部门负债增速小幅反弹至 8.6%附近，3 月底 4 月初形成 年内高点，随后趋于下行，重回缩表。金融部门方面，上周 资金面边际上有所松弛。2025 年政府工作报告中明确指出： "使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水 平预期目标相匹配"，这表明，稳定宏观杠杆率的大方向没 有任何动摇，中国仍然处于边际缩表过程之中，大规模化债 进一步降低了地方政府融资成本、以及发生大规模违约和流 动性风险的概率，有利于提升全社会的预期。按照两会公布 的财政计划，我们预计年底实体部门负债增速将下降至 8%附 近。 财政政策。上周合计政府债（包括国债和地方债）净增加 4955 亿元（高于计划的净增加 1262 亿元），按计划本周政 府债净减少 4357 亿元，2025 年 2 月 ...

资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 2025 年 04 月 06 日 看内需寻成长型选手 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：朱珠 | S1050521110001 | | --- | --- | | zhuzhu@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：于越 | S1050522080001 | | yvyue@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 传媒(申万) -1.5 11.5 10.1 沪深 300 -0.7 2.3 8.2 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 传媒 沪深300 相关研究 1、《传媒行业周报：内需与出海托 举大潮玩时代 港股先行 A 股洼地也 可期》2025-03-30 2、《传媒行业周报：从内容生产到 消费终端交互 AI 有望拉动全链条革 新》2025-03-22 3、《传媒行业周报：AI 应用增多推 高线上营销 关注 AI 赋能线下场 景》2025-03-15 ▌ 本周观点更新 外部关税因子叠加内部的业绩期，求稳防御情绪主导下，交 易面偏向稳健为主，传媒板块稳健代表主要在教育出版领 域，代表企业如中南传媒、南方传媒、皖 ...

2025 年 04 月 05 日 与国内相比，美国最近的变化更加值得高度关注，通过分析 大滞涨后的美国历史，我们认为，美国目前的情况与互联网 泡沫破裂时（2001 年）非常相似，科技的估值或将被重新进 行系统性的重估。而中国也迎来了历史性的机遇，如果我们 不忘初心、文化自信，西降东升或已开启，重点关注人民币 汇率是否开始逐步进入升值通道。回顾大滞涨后的美国历 史，有两段时期美国的表现令人惊艳，实际经济增速显著高 于潜在趋势水平、通胀可控、宏观杠杆率稳中略降、美元表 现强势。一段是互联网革命期间，具体而言是 1996-2000 年 5 年，第二段是过去的 3 年，即 2022-2024 年；前一段已经 被学术界广泛研究，比如前美联储主席耶伦就著有《令人惊 艳的十年》，第二段目前则关注不多。2022-2024 年，美国 实际经济增速分别录得 2.5%、2.9%、2.8%，均显著高于美联 储给出的长期潜在增长预估（1.8%），但根据美联储 3 月议 息会议给出的预估，2025-2027 年美国实际经济增速分别为 1.7%、1.8%、1.8%。4 月 30 日美国将公布一季度数据，我们 倾向于认为，如果美国一季度实际 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth in 2024, with total revenue projected at 9.026 billion yuan, representing a 25% increase year-on-year [11] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to reach 1.764 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a substantial growth of 119.5% compared to the previous year [11] - The report highlights a decrease in sales costs for gold mining operations, contributing to improved profitability [6][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.026 billion yuan, up 24.99% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.764 billion yuan, up 119.46% year-on-year [4] - The production and sales volume of gold increased by 5.60% and 4.88% respectively, while the production and sales of electrolytic copper and copper concentrate declined [5] Cost Management - The sales cost for gold in Q4 2024 was 269.18 yuan per gram, showing a decrease of 1.31% quarter-on-quarter [6] - The overall cost of gold mining operations decreased significantly, with a full cost of 270.06 yuan per gram, down 18.83% quarter-on-quarter [6] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 3.268 billion yuan, an increase of 48.36% year-on-year [8] - The asset-liability ratio improved from 54.36% in 2023 to 47.25% in 2024, indicating a reduction in debt levels [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 11.105 billion yuan, 11.585 billion yuan, and 11.905 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 2.845 billion yuan, 3.218 billion yuan, and 3.455 billion yuan [9][11] - The report anticipates a continued decrease in the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio, with values of 14.6, 12.9, and 12.1 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 26.901 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 10% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 6.344 billion yuan, up 13% year-on-year [1] - The gross profit margin improved by 2 percentage points to 37.00% due to declining raw material costs, while the net profit margin increased by 1 percentage point to 23.63% [2] - The company plans to continue increasing its investment in marketing and promotional activities to enhance its product offerings and customer engagement [2] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue from soy sauce reached 13.758 billion yuan, with a sales volume of 2.5655 million tons, reflecting a 9% increase in revenue and a 12% increase in volume [3] - The revenue from other categories, including vinegar and cooking wine, grew by 17% to 4.086 billion yuan, indicating strong performance in smaller product categories [3] Channel Development - Offline channel revenue was 23.885 billion yuan, up 9%, driven by enhanced distribution network density and resource allocation [4] - Online channel revenue surged by 40% to 1.243 billion yuan, showcasing the effectiveness of the company's online operations [4] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 1.24, 1.38, and 1.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 33, 30, and 27 times [9]

2025 年 04 月 03 日 拓普集团：Tier 0.5 级汽车+机器人供应商，拓 全球目光，普平台科技 买入(首次) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-03 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 56.61 | | 总市值（亿元） | 984 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 31.06-74.73 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1225.39 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 拓普集团 沪深300 相关研究 —拓普集团（601689.SH）公司深度报告 ▌多次把握时代机遇，铸就 Tier0.5 级供应商 公司成立于 1983 年，早期配套北京吉普及一汽大众等客户，后在 2001 年进入国际配套市场；在合资品牌主导时代，公司把握零部件国 产化机遇，与上汽通用等客户深度合作；后在自主品牌成长期，公司 依托以吉利为代表的大客户持续扩张；新能 ...

买入(首次) 投资要点 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn | 基本数据 | 2025-04-03 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价（元） | 56.61 | | 总市值（亿元） | 984 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1738 | | 52 周价格范围（元） | 31.06-74.73 | | 日均成交额（百万元） | 1225.39 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 拓普集团 沪深300 相关研究 —拓普集团（601689.SH）公司深度报告 ▌多次把握时代机遇，铸就 Tier0.5 级供应商 2025 年 04 月 03 日 拓普集团：Tier 0.5 级汽车+机器人供应商，拓 全球目光，普平台科技 公司成立于 1983 年，早期配套北京吉普及一汽大众等客户，后在 2001 年进入国际配套市场；在合资品牌主导时代，公司把握零部件国 产化机遇，与上汽通用等客户深度合作；后在自主品牌成长期，公司 依托以吉利为代表的大客户持续扩张；新能 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but there are expectations for new product launches to drive growth [1] - The company reported total revenue and net profit of 1.732 billion and 103 million yuan for 2024, representing year-on-year declines of 11% and 43% respectively [6] - The company is focusing on expanding its product matrix with new product developments, including unique offerings that align with regional culture and health trends [7] - The company is deepening its market presence in the Greater Bay Area and steadily expanding new distribution channels [8] - The company is expected to see a recovery in performance in the second half of the year as consumer spending policies take effect [10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue and net profit were 1.732 billion and 103 million yuan, with declines of 11% and 43% year-on-year [6] - The fourth quarter saw total revenue and net profit of 429 million and 22 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -9% and -42% respectively [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 25.31%, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Product Development - Revenue from liquid milk, flavored milk, and yogurt drinks in 2024 was 6.46 billion, 3.32 billion, and 7.37 billion yuan, with year-on-year declines of 14%, 14%, and 7% respectively [7] - The company launched several new products, including Chenpi yogurt and fresh milk pudding, which have shown promising performance [7] Market Strategy - The company achieved offline and online revenues of 1.426 billion and 306 million yuan in 2024, with year-on-year declines of 13% and 3% respectively [8] - The company has increased its number of distributors to 648, primarily in the Pearl River Delta region, and is actively expanding into new channels [8] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to have earnings per share (EPS) of 0.84, 0.97, and 1.10 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 19, 16, and 15 [10]