Group 1 - The diversification of the gold pricing framework indicates that different factors dominate at various stages, with traditional assets like US stocks, bonds, and the dollar providing insufficient explanations for the recent surge in gold prices [4][25]. - The long-term bullish trend for gold is supported by the increasing proportion of gold in foreign exchange reserves, particularly as developing countries align their gold reserves with those of developed nations, driven by ongoing central bank purchases [5][43]. - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by market sentiment and the dynamics of US asset sales, with a focus on the support level around $3,150 per ounce [6][51]. Group 2 - The traditional framework for gold pricing has shown significant deviations, with actual interest rates not contributing to gold price increases as expected, and declining expectations for interest rate cuts having limited impact [12][16]. - Central bank purchases of gold have been a more significant driver of gold prices compared to ETF buying, indicating a divergence in trends since 2023 [32][35]. - The return of gold as a backing asset for trade is suggested, particularly in light of challenges to the dollar's credit, reminiscent of the dynamics seen during the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system [36][43]. Group 3 - Short-term gold price movements are closely tied to the selling of US assets and fluctuations in trading sentiment, with a noted inverse relationship between short positions on US assets and gold prices [50][51]. - The anticipated short-term volatility in gold prices is expected to last around two months, with a focus on the $3,150 to $3,500 range as market conditions evolve [51][59]. - Key indicators to monitor for future gold price movements include Japanese bond selling, US economic performance, and VIX data, which reflect the pricing of US asset sales and geopolitical tensions [55][60].

新旧动能转换 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 事件 4 月经济数据显示产需保持韧性，地产拖累固定资产投资。 投资要点 2025 年 05 月 20 日 ▌生产端:新旧动能转换，高技术与装备制造业支 撑生产端韧性 2025 年 4 月全国规模以上工业增加值仍维持较高增速，增长 6.1%，前值 7.7%。其中制造业和采矿业为主要拉动项，4 月 增速分别为 6.6%，和 5.7%。 制造业中，高技术制造业（增速 10%）、装备制造业（增速 9.8%）生产维持高位，尤其是 3D 打印设备、工业控制计算机 及系统、智能设备制造、电子元器件及设备、服务器、机器 人减速器、工业机器人；新能源汽车、汽车用锂离子动力电 池、太阳能电池等"新三样"；生物基化学纤维、碳纤维及 其复合材料、稀土磁性材料等新材料产品。 4 月出口交货值增速 0.9%，较前值 7.7%大幅回落。与海关出 口数据比明显偏弱，主要或由于转口贸易对海关数据的拉动 可能体现在出口交货值。 服务业方面，全国服务业生产指数同比增长 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to adjustments in exhibition schedules, leading to a significant decline in revenue and profits in the short term. However, there are expectations for recovery as business activities ramp up later in the year [2][3]. - The company is leveraging AI to enhance its business operations, with a notable increase in VIP customer repurchase rates, indicating strong customer loyalty and potential for future growth [3]. - The company is transitioning from general exhibitions to specialized ones, aiming to capture opportunities in overseas markets and new business models [4][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, total revenue was 751 million yuan, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 155 million yuan, down 17.6% [10]. - For Q1 2025, total revenue plummeted to 17 million yuan, a decrease of 77%, resulting in a net loss of 37 million yuan [1][2]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 was 50.84%, while it dropped to 39.78% in Q1 2025. The net profit margin saw a significant decline, with a net loss margin of -218.19% in Q1 2025 [2]. - The company anticipates a recovery in profitability as it resumes its exhibition activities in the latter half of 2025 [2][3]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 33.1% compared to 2024. The net profit is expected to reach 258 million yuan, a growth of 66% [10]. - The EPS is projected to increase from 0.67 yuan in 2024 to 1.12 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive growth trajectory [10][11]. Market Strategy - The company is focusing on key markets such as the "Belt and Road" initiative, BRICS countries, and RCEP, enhancing its competitive positioning [3]. - The shift towards specialized exhibitions is nearly complete, with a strong emphasis on integrating AI and data-driven strategies to improve operational efficiency [3][4].

2025 年 05 月 20 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：70 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2025-05-19 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2025-05-16 | | 3、《双融日报》2025-05-15 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 70 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：固态电池、大数据、苹果链 1、固态电池主题：第十七届深圳国际电池技术交流会与 博览会(CIBF2025)将于 5 月 15 日至 17 日在深圳举办。 CIBF2025 同期还将举办 CIBF2025 先进电池前沿技术研讨 会，主题为"绿色能源驱动未来"，会议涉及先进锂离子动力 电池技术、电池安全与测评、固态及新体系电池、大功率快 充技术、智能装备与制造数字孪生等内容。相 ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 腾讯资本开支高增，AI 智能体产业持续发展 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) 7.4 -4.1 3.5 沪深 300 3.1 -0.6 5.7 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：OpenAI 计 划加大海外投资，持续看好 AIDC 环 节》2025-05-12 2、《电力设备行业周报：海外云厂 财报超预期，AI 反弹趋势明确》 2025-05-06 3、《电力设备行业周报：光伏组件 维持涨价，人形机器人产业进展密 集》2025-03-31 ▌腾讯资本开支高增，AI 智能体产业持续发展 腾讯公布 2025Q1 财报，值得关注的是 2025Q1 资本开支 275 亿元，同比+91 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [9]. Core Insights - The company reported significant growth in Q1 2025, with revenue reaching 1.746 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 53.34%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 156 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 89.10% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 194.06% [4][5]. - The increase in profit is attributed to rising sales volumes and prices of certain pesticide and chlor-alkali products, along with a decrease in costs leading to improved gross margins [5]. - The company aims to expedite the production and effectiveness of incremental projects, driving strategic transformation and high-quality development [7][8]. Financial Performance - The company’s financial metrics for Q1 2025 include a sales expense ratio of 0.98%, a management expense ratio of 5.80%, and a research and development expense ratio of 2.84% [6]. - The company has initiated 11 new R&D projects in 2024, with a total of 17 projects currently under research, and has successfully launched 6 new pesticide formulations [6]. Production Capacity and Strategic Goals - The company is one of the major domestic producers of glyphosate, with an annual production capacity of 70,000 tons, including 30,000 tons from the glycine method and 40,000 tons from the IDAN method. An additional 50,000 tons of capacity is under construction, expected to be completed by the end of 2025 [7]. - The company plans to push for the early production and effectiveness of projects in branches such as Jijiang and Guizhou, and is considering mergers and acquisitions to cultivate new core competencies [7]. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to see continued growth in net profit, with projections of 442 million yuan, 669 million yuan, and 901 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are forecasted to be 17.6, 11.6, and 8.6 times [9][11].

证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 港股高股息优势延续， 推荐关注30年国债ETF ——指数基金投资+ 2025年5月19日 n 分析师：吕思江 n SAC编号：S1050522030001 n 联系人：武文静 n SAC编号：S1050123070007 市场观点和ETF交易机会 PAGE 2 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 p 【国内市场跟踪】上周市场日均成交1.27万亿，公募新规调仓预期发酵下金融、大盘表现靠前，tmt、军 工跌幅较大，微盘股指数新高，短线资金及国家队指数表现相对强势，市场赚钱效应回落、参与难度较大。 5月12日中美关税谈判进度及降幅强于市场预期，目前美国对华综合关税仍约保持在50%+24%待定，可 以说"僵局已破"、"定局仍远"。在主要资产均已修复至4月3日高点后，AH股或保持一段时间的高位 震荡。建议短期淡化指数，更多关注自下而上的业绩机会，不追涨布局六七月行情。在关税进入长期博弈 阶段，国内资产中，红利>质量>成长。5月16日，证监会正式对外公布实施修订后的《上市公司重大资产 重组管理办法》，叠加指数横盘流动性外溢，小微盘受益，关注机器人、军工、固态电池等。 ...

丁二烯、苯乙烯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向 告 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 2025 年 05 月 19 日 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 6.2 2.4 -1.6 沪深 300 3.1 -1.3 5.7 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：天然气、 二甲苯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-13 2、《基础化工行业周报：硫酸、天 然气等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向》2025- 05-06 3、《基础化工行业周报：三氯乙 烯、燃料油等涨幅居前，建议关注 进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方 向》2025-04-28 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌ 丁二烯、苯乙烯等涨幅居前，液氯、对硝基氯化苯等跌幅 较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：丁二烯（上海石化，21.98%），苯乙 烯 ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 高评级转债性价比分析 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《2025 年转债如何为固收＋提供 增益》2024-12-31 2、《转债定价特征变化及展望》 2024-12-12 3、《转债持续调整之后的结构性机 会》2024-09-07 —固定收益深度报告 投资要点 ▌公募高质量发展叠加小盘成长行情缺乏持续性， 转债市场交投热度偏低 近期转债市场风险偏好极低，双高炒作券、低评级、小票、 次新债交易热度处于历史低位。估值方面，转股溢价率和隐 含波动率均有主动小幅调整。市场主动给予类似纯债的低价 转债更多估值，即市场更偏好转债的债性避险属性，而非低 估值转债的弹性。此外，公募等机构在高质量发展约束下， 强化业绩基准对标，对银行转债等高评级低波品种更为增 配，减少对中小盘转债的主动交易。而对于交易型投资者而 言，行业快速轮动的市场中，更加偏向于博取股票、ETF 等 高弹性资产。 ▌高评级转债性价比分析 转债市场替代性优质资产稀缺。AAA、A ...

2025 年 05 月 19 日 腾讯资本开支高增，AI 智能体产业持续发展 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：傅鸿浩 | S1050521120004 | | --- | --- | | fuhh@cfsc.com.cn | | | 分析师：臧天律 | S1050522120001 | | zangtl@cfsc.com.cn | | 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 电力设备(申万) 7.4 -4.1 3.5 沪深 300 3.1 -0.6 5.7 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《电力设备行业周报：OpenAI 计 划加大海外投资，持续看好 AIDC 环 节》2025-05-12 ▌ 投资观点 从板块来看，我们认为柴发依然是量利齐升且逻辑最顺的板 块，推荐关注潍柴重机，其次建议关注渗透率逐步提升的 HVDC 环节，推荐关注科华数据、通合科技，最后建议关注伴 随功率提升而受益的服务器电源以及液冷环节，推荐关注英 维克（新能源车组覆盖）、申菱环境（新能源车组覆盖）、 欧陆通。 对电力设备板块维持"推 ...