2025 年 03 月 20 日 计算机(申万) -0.2 8.9 27.8 沪深 300 2.1 2.1 11.8 市场表现 相关研究 1、《计算机行业点评报告：阿里云 QwQ-32B 开源模型全球首发，引领超 低密度智能与端侧生态范式革命》 2025-03-11 2、《计算机行业点评报告：智能体 Manus 震撼发布，开启自主执行与跨 领域协同新纪元》2025-03-11 3、《计算机行业周报：全球首个混 合 推 理 模 型 Claude3.7Sonnet 发 布，高情商模型 GPT-4.5 问世》 2025-03-04 Genio 720 和 Genio 520 联合发布，视频生成模 型 Open-Sora 2.0 发布 —计算机行业周报 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：宝幼琛 S1050521110002 baoyc@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M ▌算力：算力租赁价格平稳，Genio 720 和 Genio 520 联合发布 2025 年 3 月 12 日， 在国际嵌入式展（EMBEDDED WORLD） 上，联发科技（MediaTek）发布高性能边缘 AI 物联网芯 ...

2025 年 03 月 20 日 3 月 FOMC 点评：安抚市场的通胀暂时论 —策略点评报告 事件 北京时间 2025 年 3 月 20 日凌晨，美联储召开 3 月议息会 议，维持联邦基金利率水平不变，点阵图维持两次不变，上 修失业率和通胀预期，下修经济预期，同时预计从 4 月份开 始缩减 QT 规模 投资要点 ▌ FOMC 看点 联储维持政策利率不变，点阵图维持年内降息两次不变。通 胀预期略有上调 ， PCE 和核心 PCE 分 别调至 2.7% 和 2.8%。经济预期下修，GDP 增速降至 1.7%，失业率升至 4.4%。联储宣布 4 月起缩减 QT 规模，美债赎回规模从 250 亿美元下调至 50 亿美元，MBS 维持 350 亿美元的规模。 ▌ 联储：通胀暂时，经济稳固，等待信号 通胀暂时：联储认为当前的通胀抬头更多是暂时的，对于近 期对于通胀预期的抬头，更多是短期对的情绪推动，市场和 联储的预期均没有明显的上行，且目前看不到长期（5 年） 的通胀上行预期，因此联储对于当前的通胀预期的修改定义 为暂时波动 经济稳固：一方面联储对于 2025 年全年经济预期下修至 1.7%，但另一方面经济的下修并未带 ...

2025 年 03 月 20 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 58 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：算力、机器人、深海经济 1、算力主题：据媒体报道，我国全面启动"东数西算" 工程已满 3 年，三大运营商、数据中心服务商以及相关产业 链企业积极跟进，多领域发力，各地新型数字基础设施加速 建设，全国一体化算力体系加快形成。据 2024 中国算力大会 数据，我国在用算力中心机架总规模超 830 万标准机架，算 力总规模达 246EFLOPS，位居全球第二。据统计，2024 年我 国数字经济增加值占 GDP 比重已超过 45%，其中算力相关产 业 贡 献 了 约 三 分 之 一 的 增 量 。 相 关 标 的 ： 众 合 科 技 (000925)、首都在线(300846) 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：58 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a notable increase in sales of premium products, indicating a successful shift towards higher-margin offerings [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, with significant brand performance improvements, particularly for the "摘要" brand [8] - Future profit forecasts are optimistic, with expected revenue growth and improving earnings per share over the next few years [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76%, while net profit was 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit, excluding one-time costs, was approximately 4.509 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with specific brands like "喜力" seeing nearly 20% growth [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, with EBITDA of 847 million yuan, up 7.9% [8] Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.381 billion yuan, 41.839 billion yuan, and 43.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS estimates of 1.72 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [11][13]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future revenue projections indicate growth, with expected revenues of 403.81 billion, 418.39 billion, and 431.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 386.35 billion, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 47.39 billion, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 45.09 billion, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] - Operating cash flow for 2024 increased by 67% to 69.28 billion [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue for 2024 was 364.86 billion, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with Heineken sales increasing nearly 20% and other premium brands seeing significant growth [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 21.49 billion in 2024, a 4.0% increase, with EBITDA rising by 7.9% to 8.47 billion [8] - The "Summary" brand's growth strategy includes brand promotion and inventory management [8] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a focus on high-end development while streamlining operations and managing costs effectively, leading to favorable profit performance [9] - Earnings per share (EPS) projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.72, 1.95, and 2.20 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 15, 13, and 12 [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Views - The company has experienced a year-on-year increase in the production and sales volume of amino acid products, despite a decline in revenue due to falling prices of major products [5][4]. - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 1.699 billion yuan in 2024, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.60 yuan and a dividend yield of 5.95% [7]. - The company's financial metrics indicate a significant decrease in financial expense ratio and an increase in R&D expenses aimed at improving technological competitiveness [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 25.069 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.740 billion yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year [4]. - The Q4 2024 results showed an operating revenue of 6.389 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 11.69% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.8% [4]. Product Performance - The production and sales volume of animal nutrition amino acids increased significantly in 2024, with production reaching 2.7804 million tons (up 6.51% year-on-year) and sales at 2.7842 million tons (up 5.65% year-on-year) [5]. - The production of human medical amino acids was 10,198 tons (down 4.81% year-on-year), while the production of food flavor optimization products was 988,200 tons (down 5.22% year-on-year) [5]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see rapid capacity release, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 3.106 billion, 3.524 billion, and 3.905 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth outlook [8][10]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 9.3, 8.2, and 7.4 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, highlighting the investment value [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" investment rating for the company [11] Core Views - The company demonstrated stable revenue performance with a slight decline in revenue but an increase in net profit when adjusted for one-time costs and government subsidies [6] - The high-end beer segment continues to grow, with a focus on premiumization and cost reduction leading to improved profitability [7] - The white liquor segment also showed positive growth, particularly in the "Summary" brand, which achieved a 35% increase [8] - Future earnings are projected to improve as the company maintains its focus on high-end products while optimizing operations and costs [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.635 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.76%, and a net profit of 4.739 billion yuan, down 8.03%. Adjusted net profit is approximately 4.509 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.49% increase [6] - The gross margin for 2024 was 42.64%, an increase of 1.28 percentage points [6] Beer Segment - Beer revenue was 36.486 billion yuan, down 1.0%, with sales volume at 10.874 million kiloliters, a decrease of 2.5%. The average price per kiloliter increased by 1.5% to 3,355 yuan [7] - High-end product sales grew by over 9%, with notable increases in Heineken and other premium brands [7] White Liquor Segment - The white liquor segment generated revenue of 2.149 billion yuan, a 4.0% increase, with an EBITDA of 847 million yuan, up 7.9% [8] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.381 billion yuan, 41.839 billion yuan, and 43.150 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.72 yuan, 1.95 yuan, and 2.20 yuan [11][13]

- The report introduces the "Huaxin Market Sentiment Temperature Indicator," which is constructed based on six dimensions: index fluctuations, trading volume, number of rising and falling stocks, KDJ, northbound capital, and margin trading data. This indicator is categorized as an oscillation indicator, similar to the RSI indicator, and is more effective in range-bound markets. It may lose effectiveness during trending markets, where prolonged high or low values could indicate a trend shift[20] - The "Huaxin Market Sentiment Temperature Indicator" is scored on a scale of 0-100, with ranges defined as: Overcool (0-19), Cool (20-39), Neutral (40-59), Warm (60-79), and Overheat (80-100). The current sentiment score is 77, indicating a "Warm" market sentiment[5][10][20] - The report highlights that when the sentiment score is below or near 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 90 may indicate resistance[10] - The indicator's historical performance is visualized in a chart, showing its movement over the past 60 trading days alongside the All-A Index and key sentiment thresholds (20th percentile for "Overcool," 50th percentile for "Neutral," and 80th percentile for "Overheat")[14][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage of the stock [8]. Core Views - The company has experienced a year-on-year increase in the production and sales volume of amino acid products, despite a decline in revenue due to falling prices of major products [5][4]. - The company is committed to enhancing shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 1.60 CNY per share and a dividend payout ratio of 62%, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.95% [7]. - The financial outlook is positive, with projected net profits increasing from 3.11 billion CNY in 2025 to 3.90 billion CNY in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [8]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 25.07 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 9.69% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.74 billion CNY, down 13.85% year-on-year [4]. Investment Highlights - The production volume of animal nutrition amino acids increased by 6.51% to 2.78 million tons in 2024, while sales volume rose by 5.65% [5]. - The company has ongoing expansion projects, including the Tongliao monosodium glutamate expansion project and the Baicheng lysine project, which is expected to commence in September 2024 [5]. Financial Analysis - The company has significantly reduced its financial expense ratio, with financial expenses decreasing by 250.81% due to lower interest expenses and increased exchange rate gains [6]. - Research and development expenses increased by 21.86%, reflecting the company's commitment to enhancing its technological competitiveness [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see a revenue growth rate of 13.7% in 2025, with net profit growth rates of 13.3% and 13.5% in the following years [10][11]. - The projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.3, 8.2, and 7.4, respectively, indicating attractive investment value [8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The company has a solid foundation in the bottled water industry, having been established in 1984 and becoming a market leader in Guangdong by 2006. It has expanded nationally and has a strong market presence with a significant share in the bottled water segment [3][15]. - The bottled water market in China is expected to grow, with a market size of 215 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a 4% year-on-year increase. The company holds a 32.7% market share in the purified water segment, indicating its leading position [4][22]. - The company is focusing on increasing its self-production capacity, which is expected to enhance profitability. It has 13 owned factories and plans to expand production capacity significantly [5][22]. - The company is also investing in marketing and brand building, with a high sales expense ratio compared to industry peers, indicating a commitment to enhancing brand visibility [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Long-term Commitment to Bottled Water - The company has been deeply involved in the bottled water sector for 40 years, achieving significant market share and expanding its product offerings [3][15]. - In 2023, the company reported revenues of 13.564 billion yuan and a profit of 1.331 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.16% and 34.66%, respectively [3][15]. 2. Broad Market Demand and Competitive Advantage - The bottled water market is projected to grow, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7% from 2018 to 2023, outpacing other segments in the soft drink market [4][22]. - The company benefits from economies of scale and a strong distribution network, which positions it favorably against competitors [4][5]. 3. Profitability and Growth Potential - The company has a gross margin of 44.66% and a net margin of 9.82% in 2023, indicating room for improvement in profitability compared to peers [25][26]. - The report forecasts revenue growth rates of 6.8%, 7.7%, and 8.2% for 2024 to 2026, with profit growth rates of 20.8%, 18.3%, and 16.3% for the same period [8][10]. 4. National Expansion and Channel Development - The company is actively expanding its distribution network, with a significant increase in the number of sales points and a focus on national coverage [6][22]. - The sales revenue from distributors and direct sales reached 119.23 billion yuan and 15.91 billion yuan, respectively, in 2023, showing a robust growth trajectory [6][22]. 5. Financial Projections and Valuation - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 0.67, 0.79, and 0.92 yuan for 2024 to 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 21, 18, and 15 [8][10].