- The report suggests maintaining a certain level of "anti-fragile" assets to hedge against potential strengthening of the dollar, while also taking advantage of the liquidity premium in mid-cap stock indices such as the Hang Seng MidCap LOF, STAR 200 ETF, ChiNext 200 ETF, CSI 1000, and 2000 Enhanced ETFs[1][6][9] - The ETF combination strategy - equity-biased - XinXuan technical quantification has achieved an absolute return of 42.75% from the beginning of 2024 to the present, with an excess return of 18.65% relative to the CSI 300 and 13.08% relative to the ETF equal weight[10][60] - The ETF combination strategy - debt-biased - Quantitative All-Weather has a single-week increase of 0.28%, cumulative return of 8.91%, and a maximum drawdown of 3.26%[10][60] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining a high position in Japanese stocks following the removal of trade barriers due to the Japan-US tariff agreement, and the relative peace in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which benefits Japan as an oil-importing country[3][42] - The report also mentions the potential for a rapid adjustment in the US market, suggesting an increase in allocation if such an adjustment occurs, given the relatively strong economic data in the US compared to other major regions[2][41] - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market sentiment has improved, with significant net buying from southbound funds, and highlights the independent capital logic of Hong Kong stocks, favoring non-bank financials, automobiles, and innovative drugs[6][48][49] - The report suggests that the liquidity-driven market favors sectors such as non-ferrous metals, engineering machinery, non-bank financials, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery[7][57] - The report notes that the gold market is expected to continue benefiting from the ongoing rate cut expectations before the September FOMC meeting, with the Chinese central bank continuing to increase its gold reserves, reinforcing the long-term value of gold as a hedge against uncertainty[7][58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the liability growth rate of the real - sector expected to decline. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and the monetary policy will generally remain neutral and difficult to be continuously loose. The market is currently affected by risk preference, and the subsequent trends of risk preference, economic recovery, and the US economy need to be focused on [2][3][7] - In the context of the contraction of the national balance sheet, the allocation of financial assets should adopt a dumbbell - shaped strategy. The bond market is the large base, and the stock market is the small head. The stock allocation strategy is dividend plus growth, and the bond allocation strategy is duration plus credit - sinking [25] - In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. Red - dividend stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [12][67] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In July 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, with a lower - than - expected rebound. It is expected to decline to 8.9% in August and further to 8% by the end of the year. The government's liability growth rate is also expected to decline from 15.7% in July to 14.8% in August and 12.5% by the end of the year. The money market has tightened marginally, and the peak of the money market in August was likely in the first week [2][3][21] - **Monetary Policy**: The trading volume of funds decreased last week, and the price was stable. The one - year Treasury yield rose to 1.37%, and the term spread widened. The estimated lower limit of the one - year Treasury yield is 1.3%, the ten - year Treasury yield is about 1.6%, and the thirty - year Treasury yield is about 1.8% [3][22] - **Asset Side**: After a brief stabilization in June, the physical volume data declined again in July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is about 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is about 4.9%. Whether this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years needs further observation [4][23] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - **Market Performance Last Week**: The money market tightened marginally, but risk preference increased. Stocks rose, and bonds fell. The equity growth style was dominant, and the stock - bond ratio favored stocks, breaking through the previous high on August 15th [6][26] - **Future Outlook**: The trend of risk preference is uncertain. There are three possible scenarios: range - bound fluctuations, a short - term upward trend, or a fundamental change in the subjective weighting of Chinese profitability. A portfolio of growth - type equity assets and long - term bonds is recommended, with a 70% position in the CSI 1000 Index and a 30% position in the 30 - year Treasury ETF [10][11][29] 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review**: The A - share market rose this week. The communication, electronics, non - bank finance, power equipment, and computer sectors had the largest increases, while the bank, steel, textile and apparel, coal, and public utilities sectors had the largest declines [35] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of August 15th, the top five crowded industries were electronics, computer, power equipment, machinery, and non - bank finance. The trading volume of the whole A - share market increased this week, with non - bank finance, real estate, and other sectors having the highest growth rates [36][38] - **Industry Valuation and Profitability**: The PE (TTM) of the comprehensive, communication, and other sectors increased the most this week, while the bank, steel, and other sectors declined. Industries with high 2024 full - year profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations include banks, coal, and oil and petrochemicals [41][42] - **Industry Prosperity**: External demand generally declined. The global manufacturing PMI decreased in July, and the CCFI index fell. Domestic indicators such as port throughput and industrial capacity utilization showed mixed trends [46] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the second week of August, most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of August 15th, the net asset value of active public equity funds was slightly higher than that in Q4 2024 [62] - **Industry Recommendation**: In the contraction cycle, the equity - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. An A + H red - dividend portfolio of 20 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in banks, telecommunications, and other industries, are recommended [12][67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Views - The global GLP-1 market is expanding steadily, presenting strategic opportunities for Chinese companies [3] - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are increasingly recognized in global innovative drug transactions, contributing nearly 50% of total transaction value and over 30% of transaction volume [2] - The CXO industry is expected to gradually recover, with a notable increase in orders anticipated in Q3 [7] - The 2025 medical insurance negotiation and commercial insurance innovative drug directory work has commenced, with a focus on orphan drugs and breakthrough treatment varieties [8] Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Market Tracking - The pharmaceutical industry outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.7% in the past week, with a weekly increase of 3.08% [22] - Over the past month, the pharmaceutical industry index increased by 11.07%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 6.51% [25] 2. Pharmaceutical Sector Trends and Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the pharmaceutical industry index is 39.94, above the 5-year historical average of 31.83 [44] 3. Recent Research Achievements - The report highlights various research achievements, including the deepening understanding of the GLP-1 drug market and its implications for innovative drug development [46] 4. Recent Industry Policies and News - The National Medical Insurance Administration has initiated the preliminary review of the 2025 medical insurance drug directory, with 121 drug names passing the initial review [8][49] - Significant clinical trial approvals and new drug applications have been reported, indicating active development in the pharmaceutical sector [49][50] 5. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends stocks in the weight loss field, CAR-T technology, and CXO companies, highlighting specific companies such as Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical and Anke Biotechnology [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the media industry, highlighting potential growth driven by AI applications and digital marketing innovations [4][8]. Core Insights - The media sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 61.5% increase over the past 12 months, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which saw a 25.6% increase [2]. - AI applications are expected to continue driving growth in the media sector, particularly in digital advertising and content creation, with companies like BlueX and DeepSeek leading the charge [3][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the second half of the year for companies' core business operations, following the release of interim results [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Media Industry Review - The media sector has shown strong performance, with notable stock movements among companies like Jishi Media and Yuedu Group, which saw increases of 45.19% and 21.57% respectively [13]. - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with a focus on AI's role in reshaping digital marketing strategies [14]. 2. Key Recommended Stocks and Logic - The report recommends several stocks within the media sector, including: - BlueX (300058) for its innovative advertising model similar to AppLovin's Axon 2.0 [4]. - Mango Super Media (300413) for its new AI initiatives and diverse content offerings [4]. - Other notable mentions include Tianzhou Culture (300148) and Wanda Film (002739), both expected to benefit from ongoing digital transformations [4]. 3. Industry Dynamics - The gaming sector is thriving, with Tencent reporting a 17% increase in domestic game revenue and a 35% increase in international revenue [17]. - The film market is also recovering, with the summer box office surpassing 90 billion yuan, indicating strong consumer interest and a diverse slate of films [27][28]. 4. AI Applications in Media - AI is transforming digital marketing, with companies like AppLovin and BlueX leveraging AI to enhance advertising efficiency and effectiveness [14]. - The report highlights the potential for AI to drive user engagement and content creation across various platforms, including Bilibili and Meitu [15][16]. 5. Company Performance and Forecasts - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, with many expected to see significant growth in EPS and PE ratios over the next few years [8]. - Companies like Huace Film (300133) and Mango Super Media (300413) are projected to achieve substantial increases in earnings per share, reflecting their strong market positions and innovative strategies [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report As of August 16, 2025, the disclosed issuance plan for local government bonds in September amounts to 675.5 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 57%. In the third quarter, the issuance plan proportions for each month are 46% (1399.2 billion yuan) in July, 32% (963.3 billion yuan) in August, and 22% (675.5 billion yuan) in September. The proportions of new special bonds for each month are 44% (774.5 billion yuan), 34% (585.1 billion yuan), and 22% (384.3 billion yuan) respectively [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Overall Issuance Plan in September - The total disclosed issuance plan for local government bonds in September is 675.5 billion yuan, with new special bonds accounting for 57% [1]. 3.2 Issuance Plan by Region in September - The top regions in terms of local government bond issuance plan in September are Guangdong (88.7 billion yuan), Hebei (60.4 billion yuan), Jiangsu (56.5 billion yuan), Zhejiang (54.8 billion yuan), and Xinjiang (49.8 billion yuan) [2]. 3.3 New Special Bond Issuance Plan in September - The top regions in terms of new special bond issuance plan in September are Zhejiang (70 billion yuan), Yunnan (66.4 billion yuan), Sichuan (60 billion yuan), Hebei (59.1 billion yuan), and Fujian (53.5 billion yuan) [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [11]. Core Insights - The company is making rapid progress in its clinical trials, particularly with its small molecule GLP-1R agonist ASC30, which has shown promising results in weight loss and safety [6][7]. - ASC30 is positioned to potentially become a "Best in Class" treatment due to its efficacy in weight reduction and low adverse effects [7]. - The company is also developing ASC47, a small molecule THRβ agonist, which is expected to work synergistically with GLP-1 treatments to enhance weight loss while minimizing muscle loss [8]. Clinical Development - The company initiated its first phase IIa clinical trial for ASC30 in early July, successfully enrolling 125 participants within a month [6]. - The expected timeline for top-line data from the ASC30 trial is Q4 2025 [6]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's R&D expenses to increase to 415 million, 487 million, and 540 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [9]. - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -372.9 million, -467.09 million, and -562.67 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027 [9][13]. - Revenue projections for 2021 to 2023 are not specified, but the report indicates a significant decline in revenue for 2024 [9][13]. Financial Statements Overview - The company's total assets are projected to decrease from 2,491.01 million RMB in 2023 to 571.46 million RMB by 2027 [14][16]. - The report highlights a significant drop in operating income, with a forecast of 1.28 million RMB in 2024 and no revenue expected in 2025 and 2026 [13][16]. - The cash flow statement indicates negative cash flow from operating activities, with projections of -555.17 million RMB in 2025 [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company's main business is steadily expanding, with continuous optimization in profitability [5][6] - Revenue for H1 2025 reached 7.899 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 799 million yuan, up 16% [4] - The company is experiencing a downtrend in costs, leading to improved profitability, with Q2 2025 gross margin increasing by 2 percentage points to 26.19% [5] - The company is actively promoting strategic new products, such as yeast protein, leveraging existing channel resources for market introduction [6] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, revenue was 4.105 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 429 million yuan, up 15% [4] - The company achieved a sales and management expense ratio increase of 0.1 percentage points and 0.2 percentage points, respectively, leading to a net profit margin increase of 1 percentage point to 10.82% [5] - The company’s fermentation output for H1 2025 was 228,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12% [6] Future Earnings Forecast - The company expects continuous improvement in performance, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.81, 2.06, and 2.31 yuan, respectively [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 20, 17, and 15 times for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7] Market Expansion - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with Q2 2025 domestic and international revenues of 2.305 billion yuan and 1.778 billion yuan, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 4% and 22% [6] - The number of overseas distributors increased by 315 to 6,343 by the end of H1 2025, indicating strong growth in international markets [6]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 60, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy support [5][8]. Hot Topics Tracking - **Brain-Computer Interface**: The National Medical Insurance Administration has introduced a new pricing mechanism for innovative medical technologies, including a "brain-computer interface implantation fee," which is expected to accelerate the clinical application and return of innovative drugs and devices. Related stocks include Innovation Medical (002173) and Weisi Medical (688580) [6]. - **Robotics**: The first World Humanoid Robot Games will take place in Beijing from August 15-17, showcasing advancements in motion control and practical applications in various tasks. Related stocks include Wolong Electric Drive (600580) and Changsheng Bearing (300718) [6]. - **Logistics**: The State Post Bureau has held discussions to address issues of "involution" in the express delivery industry and promote high-quality development. Additionally, unmanned logistics vehicles are entering large-scale commercial use, particularly in the "last mile" delivery segment. Related stocks include Shentong Express (002468) and SF Holding (002352) [6]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of capital include Ningde Times (300750) with a net inflow of 1.41 billion, followed by GoerTek (002241) with 938 million and Sifang Jingchuang (300468) with 872 million [9][10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include Haiguang Information (688041) with 509 million, followed by Industrial Fulian (601138) with 477 million and Zhongke Shuguang (603019) with 472 million [11]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow of capital include China Great Wall (000066) with a net outflow of 1.31 billion, followed by Aerospace Science and Technology (000901) with 885 million and Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) with 773 million [12][19]. Industry Overview - The report highlights the performance of various industries, with significant net inflows observed in the electronics and computer sectors, while the banking and real estate sectors experienced notable net outflows [15][19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for Jiuhua Tourism (603199.SH) [2][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in tourism and cultural consumption in China, with a strategic focus on expanding its business through various initiatives [6][7] - The company plans to raise up to 500 million yuan through a private placement to fund projects aimed at enhancing its tourism offerings, including the construction of a new cable car and hotel upgrades [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - Jiuhua Tourism aims to raise up to 500 million yuan for projects including the construction of the Lion Peak cable car, hotel renovations, and transportation upgrades, which are expected to enhance the visitor experience and increase revenue [5] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a 12% increase in visitor numbers and a 15% increase in revenue, reaching 5.65 million visitors and 7.65 billion yuan in revenue [6] Financial Forecast - The company is projected to achieve earnings per share (EPS) of 2.01 yuan, 2.27 yuan, and 2.51 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [7][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 76.4 billion yuan in 2024 to 102.8 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% [9][10] Business Strategy - The company is leveraging its resources from the Jiuhua Mountain area to create a comprehensive tourism ecosystem, including health food and local cuisine brands, aiming to establish a tourism complex in the Chizhou region [6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" investment rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company experienced a decline in revenue due to a drop in visitor traffic, but has implemented business optimizations that have led to improved profitability [5][6]. - The company reported a total revenue of 457 million yuan for H1 2025, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, with a net profit of 121 million yuan, also down by 8% [4]. - The company is actively adjusting its operations, including the suspension of a loss-making performance project, which has contributed to a slight increase in gross margin [5][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's gross margin decreased by 2 percentage points to 48.07%, while in Q2 2025, it increased by 1 percentage point to 49.20% [5]. - The company’s sales expense ratio remained stable, while the management expense ratio increased by 1 percentage point to 14.92% [5]. Business Adjustments - Revenue from core business segments such as mountain tickets, cable cars, and hotel services decreased by 10%, 8%, and 12% respectively, primarily due to reduced visitor traffic [6]. - The company has halted the performance project "Only Emei Mountain" to mitigate losses, and the upgrade of the Golden Summit cable car is expected to be completed by the end of 2025, enhancing visitor capacity [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to see gradual improvement in performance due to ongoing adjustments and the anticipated completion of infrastructure projects [7]. - EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 0.50, 0.56, and 0.61 yuan respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 25, and 23 times [7].