证 券 研 究 报 告 金融工程周报 发达市场与黄金获大幅流入，资金流出新兴市场 全球资金流向跟踪2024W43 报告日期：2024年10月19日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | | | | | | ◼ 分析师：吕思江 | | | | | ◼ SAC 编号： S1050522030001 | | | | 投 资 要 点 资金流动概况： 截至10月16日，全球股票流入214亿美元，债券流入232亿美元，现金流出174亿美元，黄金流入10亿美元，加密货币流 入16亿美元。 债券与黄金的资金流动： 全球债券整体净流入232亿美元，主权债净流入48亿美元，投资级债券净流入169亿美元，高收益债券净流入32亿美元。 黄金净流入10亿美元，流入金额增长。 全球股票的地区、行业、风格流动： 地区层面，发达市场净流入250亿美元，其中美国净流入257亿美元。新兴市场净流出37亿美元，其中中国净流出41亿 美元。 行业层面，美国权益市场，能源净流出9.4亿美元，通信净流出7.1亿美元，医疗 ...

证 2024 年 10 月 20 日 报 告 表现 1M 3M 12M 传媒(申万) 29.4 26.3 -1.5 沪深 300 23.8 11.5 8.7 行 业 研 究 静待三季报落地 看第四季度经营 —传媒行业周报 ▌ 本周观点更新 步入 2024 年第四季度，三季报将陆续落地，由于政策在 9 月 下旬推出，短期情绪面拉动为主，后续政策红利对企业经营 影响，可观察第四季度进展。双十一大促购物节在 2024 年已 呈现平常心，企业端也从纯卷低价竞争到逐步破墙合作，如 从支付到物流，再到购物流程优化等，各家在发挥占据用户 心智优势、夯实自有地盘同时，也在积极加码出海。跨境电 商树立中国出海标杆，借力基础设施的逐步完善，多元范式 的出海也有望百花齐放，全球竞争出海多元范式具探索空 间，如数字营销、文化综艺、剧集（短中长）、游戏、文化 展览、外卖、工具类、互联网商业模式复刻等。 ▌ 本周重点推荐个股及逻辑 给予传媒行业推荐评级。港股可关注，B 站 9626（双十一开 启，公司成为大促节点商家种草带货重要阵地，关注第三季 度业绩进展）；阿里巴巴 9988（迎双十一，88VIP 优惠券的 适用范围将首次由天猫店铺扩 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry, specifically focusing on the pig farming sector [2] Core Views - Jiangxi Province has abundant pig supply and significant capacity for external transfers, supporting demand in surrounding regions [2] - Group farms are leading the recovery of pig production capacity and accelerating regional expansion [5] - The competitive landscape in Jiangxi has shifted, with group farms now dominating the market, while small散户 are increasingly adopting secondary fattening as a strategy to mitigate market volatility [3][4] Summary by Sections Natural Conditions and Disease Risk Control - Jiangxi's natural conditions are favorable for pig farming, with hilly areas in the central and southern regions providing suitable environments [9] - The terrain, which slopes towards Poyang Lake, reduces disease risks in pig farming [9] - Pig farming is concentrated in the central and southern regions of Jiangxi, with Ganzhou, Yichun, and Ji'an being the top producers, accounting for 54.73% of the province's total output [9] Pig Supply and External Transfers - Jiangxi's pig supply exceeds local demand, with per capita pork production at 55.19 kg, higher than the per capita consumption of 33.23 kg [10] - The average price of commercial pigs in Jiangxi is slightly lower than the national average, at 16.13 yuan/kg compared to 16.15 yuan/kg [10] - Jiangxi is a major source of pig transfers to economically developed regions like Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and the Pearl River Delta [10] Competitive Landscape and Secondary Fattening - The competitive structure in Jiangxi has shifted post-African Swine Fever (ASF), with group farms now dominating, while small散户 are increasingly becoming代养户 or adopting secondary fattening [13] - The proportion of small散户 has declined significantly, from 97.83% in 2018 to 94.65% in 2022 [13] - Secondary fattening has become an important model in Jiangxi, providing small散户 with a flexible way to respond to market fluctuations [14] Capacity Recovery and Expansion Led by Group Farms - Group farms are actively replenishing their breeding sow inventory, leading the recovery of pig production capacity in Jiangxi [16] - The breeding sow inventory in Jiangxi dropped to 163.2万头 in 2023 due to low pig prices and disease outbreaks, but group farms are expected to drive recovery in 2024Q4 to 2025Q1 [16] - Small散户 are expected to continue reducing self-breeding and转向二次育肥 or代养模式, while group farms will leverage their scale and technological advantages for further expansion [16]

证 2024 年 10 月 18 日 告 基本数据 2024-10-17 当前股价（元） 27.01 总市值（亿元） 39 总股本（百万股） 146 流通股本（百万股） 124 52 周价格范围（元） 22-48.07 日均成交额（百万元） 34.26 公 司 研 究 营收稳健增长，电商渠道持续发力 —仲景食品（300908.SZ）公司事件点评报告 2024 年 10 月 17 日，仲景食品发布 2024 年三季度报告。 投资要点 ▌收入稳定增长，盈利相对承压 2024Q1-Q3 总营收为 8.39 亿元（同增 14%），归母净利润 1.49 亿元（同增 7%），扣非归母净利润 1.45 亿元（同增 11%）。其中 2024Q3 总营收 3.01 亿元（同增 10%），主营业 务收入保持稳定增速，归母净利润 0.49 亿元（同减 3%）， 扣非归母净利润 0.47 亿元（同增 0.1%），主要系 2023 年同 期政府补助金额较高。盈利端来看，2024Q3 公司毛利率同减 2pct 至 40.94%，主要系原材料价格上涨所致，销售/管理费 用率分别同减 1pct/0.2pct 至 14.90%/4.20%，综 ...

证 券 2024 年 10 月 18 日 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 2024 年 10 月 17 日 告 基本数据 2024-10-17 当前股价（元） 35.07 总市值（亿元） 258 总股本（百万股） 735 流通股本（百万股） 670 52 周价格范围（元） 10.75-37.8 日均成交额（百万元） 325.09 公 研 究 市场表现 -50 0 50 100 150 (%) 捷捷微电 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《捷捷微电（300623）：进一步 收购子公司完善布局，Q2 利润大幅 高增》2024-08-19 2、《捷捷微电（300623）：子公司 南通科技实现盈利，多项目持续推 进完善 IDM 供应链》2024-04-30 3、《捷捷微电（300623）：高端功 率半导体项目稳步推进，MOSFET 调 涨盈利有望改善》2024-01-17 司 究 报 并购重组落地，前三季度净利润表现超预期 —捷捷微电（300623.SZ）公司事件点评报告 捷捷微电发布 2024 年前三季度业绩预告：2024 年前三季度 预计实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润 31,356.42 万元至 35,632.30 万元，同比增长 120%-150%，预计 ...

证 2024 年 10 月 16 日 报 告 行 研 究 新势力 9 月销量点评：小鹏、零跑等车企交付量 创历史新高，MONA 03 等新车型有望进一步提振 车企销量 —汽车行业动态研究报告 ▌蔚来/小鹏/理想/小米：小鹏、理想月交付量创新 高，小鹏 MONA 03 大定表现亮眼 蔚来：9 月交付 21,181 辆，同比+35.4%，环比+5.0%，连续 5 个月交付突破 2 万辆。小鹏：9 月交付 21,352 辆，同比 +39.5%，环比+52.1%，小鹏 MONA M03 交付破万台，带动小鹏 月交付量创新高。理 想： 9 月交付 53,709 辆，同比 +48.9%，环比+11.6%，月交付量创新高。10 月，理想将迎来 第 100 万辆新车的下线和交付。小米：9 月交付突破 1 万 辆，10 月生产目标冲刺 2 万台；4 月 SU7 上市以来，交付稳 步上行，预计 11 月提前完成全年 10 万台交付目标。 ▌鸿蒙智行：9 月交付 39,931 辆，问界新 M7 交付 突破 20 万台，享界 S9 交付 2169 辆 问界：9 月交付 35,560 辆，同比+ 399.1%，环比+13.9%。其 中 ...

证 2024 年 10 月 16 日 报 告 行 研 究 新势力 9 月销量点评：小鹏、零跑等车企交付量 创历史新高，MONA 03 等新车型有望进一步提振 车企销量 —汽车行业动态研究报告 ▌蔚来/小鹏/理想/小米：小鹏、理想月交付量创新 高，小鹏 MONA 03 大定表现亮眼 蔚来：9 月交付 21,181 辆，同比+35.4%，环比+5.0%，连续 5 个月交付突破 2 万辆。小鹏：9 月交付 21,352 辆，同比 +39.5%，环比+52.1%，小鹏 MONA M03 交付破万台，带动小鹏 月交付量创新高。理 想： 9 月交付 53,709 辆，同比 +48.9%，环比+11.6%，月交付量创新高。10 月，理想将迎来 第 100 万辆新车的下线和交付。小米：9 月交付突破 1 万 辆，10 月生产目标冲刺 2 万台；4 月 SU7 上市以来，交付稳 步上行，预计 11 月提前完成全年 10 万台交付目标。 ▌鸿蒙智行：9 月交付 39,931 辆，问界新 M7 交付 突破 20 万台，享界 S9 交付 2169 辆 问界：9 月交付 35,560 辆，同比+ 399.1%，环比+13.9%。其 中 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 策略深度报告 从分化、收敛到共振: 中美货币宽松周期的大类资产策略 报告日期： 2024年10月16日 ◼ 分析师：杨芹芹 ◼ SAC编号：S1050523040001 投资要点 核心要点： 复盘1984年以来的7次联储降息周期的美国经济和大类资产规律，可以发现降息周期美债和黄金平均涨幅居前，美股软着陆表现较好，与基本面相关的铜、原油、 CRB等大宗均有调整压力，港股弹性显现，A股初期较优，人民币表现分化。当前美股等待11月大选后的交易机会，美债收益率易下难上，美元关注100支撑，黄金偏 配置，港股顺风已至，A股确认反转，人民币主动升值仍待催化。 50BP降息信号：软着陆基准的非常规操作 9月联储鸽派降息50BP+鹰派发言具有深意，联储降息前后海外交易逻辑来回横跳： 1）9月联储降息50BP，为软着陆基准的非常规操作，中美货币政策迎来共振宽松。 2）美国衰退风险较低，仍在软着陆区间。年内仍有50BP降息落地，经济和就业数据的重要性高于通胀，9月强势非农持续性仍待观察。 海外资产策略：美股、美债、美元、大宗 降息周期美债和黄金受益，工业大宗承压。 1）美股：软着陆表现较优，但当前已在高位 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - Q3 revenue reached a historical high, with significant improvement in gross margin [2][3] - The company achieved Q3 revenue of 310 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.47%, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.09% [2] - Gross margin in Q3 recovered to 42.45%, an increase of 12.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3] Business Performance - The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 740 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.62%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.81% [3] - The decline in net profit was mainly due to increased costs from new project investments, including depreciation, amortization, and labor expenses, as well as stock payment expenses and increased R&D investment [3] - Q3 revenue increased by 26.03% quarter-on-quarter, driven by increased demand for high-performance chip testing (CPU, GPU, AI) and high-reliability chip testing (industrial and automotive electronics) [3] Production and R&D Layout - The company has four production centers in Shanghai, Wuxi, Nanjing, and Shenzhen, with Wuxi and Shanghai plants operating at full capacity [4] - The Nanjing plant completed acceptance in August 2024 and will handle overflow orders from Shanghai and Wuxi, primarily for consumer electronics [4] - The company has an R&D team in Shanghai focused on test solutions and program development, and a service center in Tianjin for MCU and automotive electronics chips [4] - Future expansion plans include adding production centers in Changsha and Chengdu, covering the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, central, and southwestern regions [4] Product Strategy - The company focuses on two main product lines: high-reliability chip testing (automotive and industrial) and high-performance chip testing (CPU, GPU, AI) [5] - High-end products accounted for 75% of total products in 2023, and 66% in the first half of 2024, with expectations to exceed 2023 levels in the second half of 2024 [5] - The shift towards high-end products has significantly improved gross margins [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected to be 1.12 billion yuan, 1.327 billion yuan, and 1.612 billion yuan, respectively [6][8] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 1.17 yuan, 2.15 yuan, and 2.76 yuan, respectively [6][8] - The current PE ratio is 50x for 2024, 27x for 2025, and 21x for 2026 [6] Key Financial Metrics - Gross margin is expected to improve from 38.0% in 2024 to 41.0% in 2026 [10] - ROE is projected to increase from 5.4% in 2024 to 12.4% in 2026 [10] - Net profit margin is forecasted to rise from 11.9% in 2024 to 19.5% in 2026 [10]