2024 年 11 月 05 日 行业配置研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 股市风格的再平衡 ——资产配置研究 最近一年走势 投资要点: 财政部发布会后，理论上的受益方向在 A 股表现较弱。在 10 月 12 日国新办发布会上，财政部部长蓝佛安提了四个发力方向：支持地 方化解隐性债务、支持国有大型商业银行补充核心一级资本、支持 推动房地产市场止跌回稳、加大对重点群体的支持保障力度。我们 认为，化债利好银行保险、建筑建材、公用环保等对地方政府/城投 有债权/应收账款的企业，其他几项政策也都有望在银行、地产、消 费等领域带来利好，理论上这些低估值大盘股或应表现较好。但 2024/10/12-2024/11/1 沪深 300 指数仅上涨 0.07%，而同期中证 2000 指数却上涨 11.15%。如果用申万风格指数刻画市场，则会发 现绩优股指数、低市盈率指数表现反而靠后。 A 股市场风格有望迎来再平衡。我们认为，如果 11 月各项政策预期 逐步落定、市场交易的偏好向基本面看齐、四季度保险开门红带来 的机构配置资金入 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China XD Electric (601179) [2] Core Views - China XD Electric's profitability has significantly improved year-over-year, driven by the delivery of high-value-added products, particularly in the UHV and power transmission sectors [3] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached 4.9 billion yuan, up 4% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders surging 200% YoY to 330 million yuan [3] - Gross profit margin in Q3 2024 rose to 23.7%, up 6.5 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin increased to 8.6%, up 5.3 percentage points YoY [3] - The company's new orders have been growing steadily in 2024, with a 32% YoY increase in power transmission bidding, outperforming the 12% growth in State Grid's total bidding amount [5] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, China XD Electric achieved revenue of 15.2 billion yuan, up 6% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 790 million yuan, up 45% YoY [3] - The company's gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.5%, up 3.7 percentage points YoY, while net profit margin was 6.5%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY [3] - In Q3 2024, the company's non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders surged 384% YoY to 310 million yuan [3] Market Position and Growth Prospects - China XD Electric is a leading domestic player in UHV-related power equipment, with significant market share in key products such as transformers and gas-insulated switchgear [3] - The company won 5.9 billion yuan in UHV and power transmission transformer bids in 2023, a 447% YoY increase, and 4.4 billion yuan in gas-insulated switchgear bids, up 94% YoY [3] - In 2024, the company secured 1.1 billion yuan in UHV flexible DC converter valve bids, capturing a 25% market share, indicating strong growth potential in the flexible DC sector [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to 22.3 billion yuan in 2024, 24.9 billion yuan in 2025, and 27.8 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 6%, 12%, and 12% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 1.29 billion yuan in 2024, 1.82 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.31 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 45%, 41%, and 27% respectively [5] - EPS is forecasted to be 0.3 yuan in 2024, 0.4 yuan in 2025, and 0.5 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 35X, 24X, and 19X [5] Valuation Metrics - As of November 4, 2024, the company's stock price was 8.68 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 44.49 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 44.49 billion yuan [3] - The 52-week price range was 4.38-9.54 yuan, with a daily average trading volume of 1.11 billion yuan and a one-month turnover rate of 2.37% [3][4]

2024 年 11 月 05 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2024 年第 189 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 Q3 线下经营承压，等待零售拐点--海澜之家/服装家纺(600398/213502) 公司点评 Q3 业绩符合预期，储能出货量和单位净利润创单季历史新高--阿特斯/光伏设备(688472/216305) 科创板公司 动态研究 神舟十九号发射圆满成功，英伟达被纳入道琼斯工业平均指数--行业周报 EDA 授权收入高增，全流程+客户拓展+并购整合推动长期成长--概伦电子/软件开发(688206/217104) 科创板 公司动态研究 格拉默阵痛拖累业绩，夯实基础轻装上阵--继峰股份/汽车零部件(603997/212802) 公司点评 公司收入稳健增长，空悬及传感器业务持续放量--保隆科技/汽车零部件(603197/212802) 公司点评 Q3 营收同比增长 245%，互联网/运营商/金融液冷需求提升--曙光数创/计算机(872808/2171) 北交所公司普 通报告 白酒三季报释放压 ...

| --- | --- | |--------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | | 2024 | 年 11 月 04 日 | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 罗婉琦 S0350524050002 luowq@ghzq.com.cn | 评级：推荐(维持) 最近一年走势 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 行业相对表现 \n表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 恒生指数 | -10% | 21% | 16% | | 恒生科技 | -14% | 32% | 14% | 相关报告 《海外行业动态研究：微盟布局短剧赛道以探索 "AI+短剧"新机遇，大模型应用产品 WAI 表现亮 眼（推荐）*海 ...

近一月换手（%） 0.99 2024 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q2 财报点评：2024Q2 业绩环比增长，智驾持续加速（增持）*乘用车*戴 畅》——2024-09-02 2024Q3 交付量创历史新高。2024Q3，理想汽车交付 152,831 辆， 同/环比+45.4%/+40.8%。车辆销售收入 413.2 亿元，同/环比 +22.9%/+36.3%，车辆销售收入同比和环比的增加主要由于车辆交 付量增加，但部分被主要因不同产品组合导致的平均售价降低所抵 销。 《理想汽车-W（02015）2024Q1 点评报告：2024Q1 销量业绩环比承压，新品上市静待反弹（增持）* 乘用车*戴畅》——2024-05-25 《理想汽车-W（02015）2023 年三季报点评报告： 盈利同环比增长，交付量再创新高（买入）*乘用 车*薛玉虎》——2023-11-12 《理想汽车-W（02015）点评报告：销量稳步提升， 双能战略全面发力（买入） ...

相对沪深 300 表现 2024/11/04 2024 年 11 月 04 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 祝玉波 S0350523120005 zhouyb01@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张晋铭 S0350124040003 zhangjm02@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 史亚州 S0350124060026 shiyz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] Q3 归母净利润 41.4 亿元，同比降低 2.3% ——中国国航（601111）2024 年三季报点评 事件: 2024 年 10 月 31 日，中国国航公告 2024 年三季报： 最近一年走势 2024 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入 1281.50 亿元，同比增长 21.50%， 实现归母净利润 13.62 亿元，同比增长 72.06%。 其中公司 2024Q3 实现营业收入 486.30 亿元，同比增长 6.03%，实现归 母净利润 41.44 亿元，同比降低 2.31%。 投资要点: 表现 1M 3M 12M 地区+国际线运力恢复到 2019 年同期 90%以上，收益水平表现较弱 中国国 ...

2024 年 11 月 04 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 吉利雷神 [Table_Title] EM-i 电混正式发布，多家新势力 10 月交付量同环比增长 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点： 2024.10.28-11.01A 股汽车板块跑赢上证综指。一周涨跌幅（10 月 28 日至 11 月 1 日）：上证综指-0.8%，创业板指-5.1％，汽车板块指数 -0.4％，其中乘用车/商用车/零部件/汽车服务分别为-1.8％/+2.8％ /-0.7％/+1.9％。汽车行业指数跑赢上证指数，汽车板块周度成交额 环比提升。2024.10.28-11.01 期间，港股汽车整车理想汽车/小鹏汽车 / 蔚 来 / 零 跑 汽 车 / 吉 利 汽 车 涨 跌 幅 分 别 为 -12.7%/+6.0%/+2.3%/+4.2%/-8.0%。 行业相对表现 2024/11/04 周动态：吉利雷神 EM-i 电混正式发布，多家新势力 10 月交付量同 环比增长。 吉利雷神 EM-i 电混正式发布，搭载银河星舰 7 打造重磅插 ...

2024 年 11 月 04 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 程一胜 S0350521070001 chengys01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 熊子兴 S0350522100002 xiongzx@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 看好养殖板块估值修复和宠物板块品牌集中度 提升逻辑 ——农林牧渔行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 生猪：出栏体重下降 投资建议：根据农村农业部的数据，2024 年 7 月、8 月能繁母猪存 栏量环比分别为+0.07%、-0.1%，三季度末能繁母猪存栏量同比下 降 4.2%，即使猪价出现阶段性高点能繁母猪存栏依然微降，尤其是 仔猪价格明显下跌反映出产能恢复偏弱，随着前期大体重猪出清， Q4 仍有望出现价格高点，2025 年全年猪价或将维持成本线之上。 我们持续重点推荐温氏股份、牧原股份、巨星农牧，建议关注弹性 标的唐人神、华统股份、广弘控股。 行业相对表现 2024/11/04 表现 1M 3M 12M 家禽：父母代鸡苗价格走高 农 ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [2] Core Views - Despite a year-on-year decline in Q3 profits, the long-term growth potential of the company is optimistic [2] - The company achieved revenue of 17.492 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.15%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.271 billion yuan, up 10.12% year-on-year [2] - Q3 revenue was 6.536 billion yuan, down 0.20% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company was 782 million yuan, down 27.21% year-on-year [2] Operational Performance - International routes saw significant growth in Q3, with overall travel demand remaining strong, but revenue levels were under pressure [3] - Total ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) increased by 13.42% year-on-year in Q3, with domestic ASK down 1.85% and regional + international ASK up 116.97% compared to the same period in 2019 [3] - Domestic load factor improved slightly by 1.25 percentage points to 88.87% in Q3, while regional + international load factor decreased by 1.14 percentage points to 76.14% [3] - Unit ASK cost decreased by 3.5% year-on-year to 0.346 yuan, lower than the same period in 2019 [3] Financial Metrics - The company's current price is 13.22 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 9.92-14.90 yuan [3] - Total market capitalization is 29.07085 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 2.199 billion shares [3] - Daily average trading volume is 221.80 million yuan, with a one-month turnover rate of 1.23% [3] Future Outlook - Oil prices are expected to decline, reducing operational costs, with domestic jet fuel prices in October 2024 falling by 13.3% compared to the average price in the first three quarters of 2024 [7] - The company's net profit is expected to increase by 1.33 billion yuan for every 5% decrease in fuel prices [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 22.020 billion yuan, 23.866 billion yuan, and 25.271 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit attributable to the parent company expected to be 1.036 billion yuan, 2.002 billion yuan, and 2.305 billion yuan [7] - The company's PE ratios for 2024-2026 are projected to be 28.06x, 14.52x, and 12.61x, respectively [7] Strategic Positioning - The company is positioned to benefit from the dual-brand strategy of Juneyao and 9 Air, covering both full-service and low-cost market segments [7] - Long-term growth potential is supported by the recovery in air travel demand and the company's differentiated competitive advantages [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104) for the first time [2] Core Views - SAIC Motor's Q3 2024 performance was under pressure, with total revenue of 430.482 billion yuan, down 17.74% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.907 billion yuan, down 39.45% YoY [3] - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 145.796 billion yuan, down 25.91% YoY but up 2.95% QoQ, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan, down 93.53% YoY and 92.86% QoQ [4] - SAIC Motor's overseas business remained stable, with Q3 2024 overseas sales of 251,300 units, accounting for 30.56% of total sales, up 7.24 percentage points YoY [6] - The company's new energy vehicle sales in Q3 2024 were 287,000 units, up 3.68% YoY and 14.39% QoQ, accounting for 34.90% of total sales, up 13.70 percentage points YoY [6] Financial Performance - SAIC Motor's Q3 2024 gross profit was 13.752 billion yuan, down 31.3% YoY but up 21.3% QoQ, with a gross margin of 9.65%, down 0.8 percentage points YoY but up 1.4 percentage points QoQ [4] - The company's Q3 2024 average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 173,400 yuan, up 26,600 yuan YoY and 34,200 yuan QoQ [4] - SAIC Motor's Q3 2024 sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 4.80%/3.85%/2.70%/0.37%, up 0.69/0.78/0.46/0.21 percentage points YoY, respectively [4] Sales Performance - SAIC Motor's Q3 2024 total sales were 822,400 units, down 37.02% YoY and 17.17% QoQ, mainly due to pressure on joint venture brands [4] - The company's joint venture brands, including SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC General Motors, saw significant sales declines, with SAIC Volkswagen selling 260,000 units, down 20.98% YoY, and SAIC General Motors selling 52,900 units, down 80.64% YoY [4] - SAIC Motor's self-owned brands accounted for 27.64% of total sales in Q3 2024, up 2.72 percentage points YoY, with IM Motors sales reaching 15,000 units, up 182.18% YoY [4] Future Outlook - SAIC Motor is expected to achieve revenue of 607.738 billion yuan, 667.749 billion yuan, and 718.369 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -18%, 10%, and 8% [7] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 8.927 billion yuan, 10.925 billion yuan, and 11.179 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with YoY growth rates of -37%, 22%, and 2% [7] - SAIC Motor's EPS is expected to be 0.77 yuan, 0.94 yuan, and 0.97 yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 13 times [7] Market Performance - SAIC Motor's stock price was 12.89 yuan as of November 1, 2024, with a 52-week price range of 11.49-16.07 yuan [4] - The company's total market capitalization was 149.20561 billion yuan, with a total share capital of 1.15752994 billion shares [4] - SAIC Motor's stock performance over the past month, three months, and twelve months was -11.9%, -10.0%, and -8.7%, respectively, compared to the CSI 300's performance of -3.2%, 13.8%, and 8.9% over the same periods [4]