Group 1 - The macro liquidity environment has shown marginal convergence, with the central bank conducting a net withdrawal of 16,550 billion yuan through open market operations, resulting in a total net withdrawal of 5,550 billion yuan for the week [7][8] - Short-term interest rates have decreased, while long-term interest rates have increased, leading to a widening of the yield spread [7][8] - The overall structure of equity fund supply has shown significant differentiation, with a notable decline in equity fund issuance and a record high in margin financing balance, which has surpassed 2.6 trillion yuan [2][10] Group 2 - The financing net inflow has been concentrated in the electronics and non-ferrous metals sectors, while the food and beverage and building materials sectors have experienced net outflows [10][14] - The stock ETF has seen a net outflow of 1.81 billion yuan, reversing the previous week's net inflow of 354.41 billion yuan, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [10][12] - The overall pressure on the stock market's funding demand has eased, with equity financing dropping to 43.85 billion yuan, and the scale of restricted stock unlocks decreasing to 1,650.32 billion yuan [13][15] Group 3 - The IPO issuance for the week amounted to 15.55 billion yuan, down from 33.01 billion yuan the previous week, indicating a slowdown in new equity offerings [15][16] - The scale of directed placements has significantly decreased to 28.3 billion yuan from 172.08 billion yuan, reflecting a contraction in capital raising activities [15][16] - The net reduction in industrial capital has also decreased to 126.23 billion yuan from 146.61 billion yuan, suggesting a reduction in selling pressure from major shareholders [15][23]

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition from liquidity-driven markets to "physical validation" in 2026, marking a key year for the conversion of global monetary impulses into physical output [4] - It discusses the asymmetric game of global credit functions, with the US driving demand through administrative rate cuts and fiscal subsidies, Japan acting as an auditor of high-interest projects, and China filling global physical gaps as a "deflationary dividend" provider [5][6][7] - Asset allocation strategies are suggested under credit stratification, focusing on selecting targets with "physical rigidity" and cash flow resilience, particularly in the US, Japan, and China [8][9][10] Group 2 - The automotive sector saw a week-on-week increase in trading volume, but the automotive index underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with significant declines in several key stocks [11][12] - Multiple new models from Xiaopeng and BYD were announced, including the Xiaopeng P7+ and G7, which will feature advanced AI capabilities and a dual technology route of pure electric and extended range [14][15] - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the automotive industry, highlighting opportunities in domestic high-end brands and the acceleration of intelligent technology integration [16] Group 3 - The report notes the approval of SpaceX to deploy an additional 7,500 second-generation Starlink satellites, enhancing global internet service and suggesting investment opportunities in commercial aerospace and high-end materials [19][20] - China's "South Gate Plan" is introduced, focusing on future aerospace technologies, including high-speed flight and intelligent decision-making systems, indicating potential growth in related industries [21][22] Group 4 - The bond market is experiencing a "low volatility" trend, with the 10-year government bond yield rising to approximately 1.88% as of January 9, 2026, and a shift in institutional behavior noted [24][25][26] - The report anticipates that the 10-year government bond may continue to exhibit low volatility, enhancing its defensive attributes and making it a more liquid asset [26][27] Group 5 - The report indicates that the pig farming industry is entering a phase of accelerated capacity reduction, with a focus on low-cost operations and potential value reassessment for leading companies [38][39][40] - The poultry sector is expected to improve, with a notable increase in the number of breeding chickens and a focus on companies like Shennong Development and Lihua Shares [40] Group 6 - The mechanical equipment sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with recommendations for companies involved in motorcycles, tools, and engineering machinery, as well as emerging technologies like humanoid robots and solid-state batteries [47][48][49] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the manufacturing sector, particularly in exports and innovative technologies, suggesting a favorable outlook for companies in these areas [47][48] Group 7 - The report discusses the acquisition of Hebei Kanda by Chaoyun Group for up to 450 million yuan, aimed at enhancing market competitiveness in home care products and increasing market coverage [55][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [9][66]. Core Insights - The swine industry is entering an accelerated phase of capacity reduction, presenting opportunities at the bottom of the market. Regulatory measures are being reinforced to control pig prices, with expectations of a gradual adjustment rather than aggressive interventions. The focus is on low-cost performance and dividend increases for value reassessment, particularly for leading companies like Muyuan Foods and WH Group [1][14]. - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in fundamentals, with historical highs in the number of breeding stock updates. The price dynamics are currently low, but there is potential for marginal changes in the cycle. Recommended companies include Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. - The animal health sector is advancing with the clinical trials of the African swine fever subunit vaccine, which has received approval for clinical trials. The likelihood of domestic vaccine market entry is increasing, with recommended companies including BioFeng and Kexin Biological [3][6]. - The pet industry continues to grow rapidly, with significant improvements in profitability. Recommended companies in the pet food sector include GuaiBao Pet and ZhongChong Co., while in the pet medical sector, RuiPu Biological is highlighted [9][60]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - The swine industry is experiencing a capacity reduction phase, with regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing prices. The average price of pigs in December 2025 was 11.59 CNY/kg, with a slight month-on-month decrease. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year [13][14]. - Recommended companies include Muyuan Foods and WH Group, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [1][14]. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector is seeing a potential improvement in fundamentals, with breeding stock updates reaching historical highs. The average price for broiler chickens was 3.9 CNY/jin, with a slight increase [26][28]. - Recommended companies are Shennong Development and Lihua Agricultural [2][28]. Animal Health - The animal health sector is focused on the progress of the African swine fever vaccine trials, with the first round of trials proceeding as planned. The second round is set to begin by the end of March 2026 [3][6]. - Companies to watch include BioFeng, Kexin Biological, and RuiPu Biological [6]. Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.5%. The average annual spending per pet dog is 2,961 CNY, while for cats, it is 2,020 CNY [59][60]. - Recommended companies include GuaiBao Pet, ZhongChong Co., and Peidi Co. in the pet food sector, and RuiPu Biological in the pet medical sector [9][60]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with the price of feed for fattening pigs at 3.34 CNY/kg, showing a month-on-month increase [47][48]. - Recommended companies include Haida Group and HeFeng Co. [48]. Planting Industry - Grain prices have increased year-on-year, with corn prices at 2,250 CNY/ton, showing a 10.5% increase compared to the previous year [41][46]. - Companies to focus on include SuKan Agricultural Development, LongPing High-Tech, and DengHai Seeds [7][46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The bond market had a "bad start" in 2026. On January 9th, the yield to maturity of the 10-year Treasury bond rose to around 1.88% compared to the beginning of the year. The report focuses on potential changes in market institutional behaviors and makes three subsequent judgments [6][14]. - The bond market continues to "depend on funds for ups and downs", but large banks have joined the secondary allocation of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds since late December 2025, which is an uncommon change in history. From January 4th to January 9th, funds sold over 300 billion yuan of bonds, pushing interest rates up, while large banks significantly increased their net purchases of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds [6][14]. - Looking ahead, the 10-year Treasury bond may become more "low-volatility" as banks hold significantly more Treasury bonds than funds for the 10-year term, making it easier to play a stabilizing role. The difference in volatility (10Y CDB + 30Y Treasury - 2 * 10Y Treasury) has been rising since the second half of 2025 and is expected to continue [6][16]. - The low volatility of the 10-year Treasury bond may keep its trading volume at a relatively low level as trading desks gradually switch to other varieties. The trading volume of the 10-year Treasury bond may continue to be at a relatively low level in the future [9][19]. - The spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year CDB bond may further widen. Under the influence of supply and demand, the spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds still has a widening trend, while the spread between the 10-year CDB and 10-year Treasury bonds may see the decline of some previous liquidity premiums due to the decrease in the trading volume of the 10-year Treasury bond, driving the implied tax rate to a relatively low level [9][19]. - Overall, the low volatility of the 10-year Treasury bond may enhance its defensive attributes, turning it into an asset with liquidity, duration, and relatively small fluctuations. The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile trend in the future [8][19]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. This Week's Bond Market Review - The bond market had a "bad start" in 2026. The 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity rose to around 1.88% on January 9th compared to the beginning of the year. The report focuses on potential changes in market institutional behaviors and makes three subsequent judgments [6][14]. - The bond market continues to "depend on funds for ups and downs", but large banks have joined the secondary allocation of long-term and ultra-long-term bonds since late December 2025, which is an uncommon change in history. From January 4th to January 9th, funds sold over 300 billion yuan of bonds, pushing interest rates up, while large banks significantly increased their net purchases of 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds [6][14]. - The change may be traced back to the first-quarter 2025 Monetary Policy Implementation Report. In September 2025, the central bank optimized the evaluation system for primary dealers, adding the "performance in stabilizing the market during bond market fluctuations". It is expected that large banks will further join small and medium-sized banks as trading counterparts to non-bank institutions [15]. - Three judgments on the impact of this change: the 10-year Treasury bond may become more "low-volatility"; its trading volume may remain at a relatively low level; the spread between the 30-year Treasury bond and the 10-year CDB bond may further widen. Overall, the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile trend [6][9][16]. 2. Bond Yield Curve Tracking 2.1 Key Maturity Interest Rates and Spread Changes - As of January 9th, compared to January 4th, the 1-year Treasury bond yield to maturity decreased by 4.35bp to 1.29%; the 10-year Treasury bond yield to maturity increased by 3.55bp to 1.88%; the 30-year Treasury bond yield to maturity increased by 4.95bp to 2.30%. - The spread between the 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 1.40bp to 42.42bp, and the spread between the 10-year CDB and 10-year Treasury bonds increased by 0.70bp to 15.05bp [20]. 2.2 Treasury Bond Maturity Spread Changes - As of January 9th, compared to January 4th, the 3Y - 1Y Treasury bond spread increased by 12.89bp to 17.19bp; the 5Y - 3Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 5.50bp to 19.45bp; the 7Y - 5Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.27bp to 10.42bp; the 10Y - 7Y Treasury bond spread increased by 0.78bp to 11.89bp; the 20Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread increased by 1.45bp to 41.02bp; the 30Y - 20Y Treasury bond spread decreased by 0.05bp to 1.40bp [24]. 3. Bond Market Leverage and Funding Situation 3.1 Interbank Pledged Repurchase Balance - As of January 9th, 2026, compared to January 4th, the interbank pledged repurchase balance increased by 0.81 trillion yuan to 13.08 trillion yuan [25]. 3.2 Interbank Bond Market Leverage Ratio Changes - As of January 9th, 2026, compared to January 4th, the interbank bond market leverage ratio increased by 0.50pct to 107.88% [29]. 3.3 Pledged Repurchase Transaction Volume - From January 4th to January 9th, the average pledged repurchase transaction volume was 7.51 trillion yuan. The average overnight pledged repurchase transaction volume was about 6.79 trillion yuan, and the average overnight transaction volume accounted for 91.09% [31][34]. 3.4 Interbank Funding Situation - From January 4th to January 9th, bank fund lending continued to rise. As of January 9th, large banks' net fund lending was 5.90 trillion yuan, small and medium-sized banks' net fund borrowing was 0.68 trillion yuan, and the net lending of the banking system was 5.22 trillion yuan. - In terms of funding rates, as of January 9th, DR001 was 1.2727%, DR007 was 1.4727%, R001 was 1.3480%, and R007 was 1.5157% [35]. 4. Medium and Long-Term Bond Fund Durations 4.1 Median Bond Fund Duration - As of January 9th, the median duration of medium and long-term bond funds (deleveraged) was 2.60 years, an increase of 0.02 years compared to January 4th; the median duration (including leverage) was 2.73 years, an increase of 0.01 years compared to January 4th [43]. 4.2 Median Interest Rate Bond Fund Duration - As of January 9th, the median duration of interest rate bond funds (including leverage) was 3.68 years, a decrease of 0.04 years compared to January 4th; the median duration of credit bond funds (including leverage) was 2.48 years, an increase of 0.05 years compared to January 4th. - As of January 9th, the median duration of interest rate bond funds (deleveraged) was 3.31 years, unchanged compared to January 4th; the median duration of credit bond funds (deleveraged) was 2.39 years, an increase of 0.02 years compared to January 4th [46]. 5. Bond Lending Balance Changes - As of January 9th, compared to January 4th, the borrowing volume of the 10-year CDB bond showed fluctuations [50].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.8% year-on-year in December 2025, indicating a positive impact from consumption-boosting policies. This marks the highest CPI level since March 2023, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2% year-on-year [2][3] - The report emphasizes the ongoing effects of consumption policies, particularly the "old-for-new" subsidy program, which aims to stimulate demand in the consumer market. The first batch of 625 billion yuan in long-term special government bond funds was released on January 1, 2026, to support this initiative [2][3] - The report notes structural adjustments in subsidy policies, with a focus on energy-efficient appliances and smart products, which are expected to create opportunities for companies in the light industry sector [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The light manufacturing industry outperformed the CSI 300 index with a 1-month performance of 4.7%, 3-month performance of 10.6%, and a 12-month performance of 28.3% compared to the CSI 300's 3.5%, 1.0%, and 25.9% respectively [1] Consumer Demand - The report indicates that consumer demand has increased due to policy incentives and seasonal factors, leading to a month-on-month CPI increase of 0.2% in December 2025, reversing the previous month's decline [2] Subsidy Program Details - The "old-for-new" subsidy program has been upgraded to provide more funding and clearer direction, focusing on green and smart large consumer goods. The subsidy covers six categories of household appliances and four categories of digital products, with a maximum subsidy of 1,500 yuan for appliances and 500 yuan for digital products [2][3] - The report highlights that the subsidy for energy-efficient appliances has been standardized at 15%, with a significant increase in the threshold for eligibility compared to previous years [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Insights - The automotive industry is expected to face challenges in 2026 due to the reduction of new energy vehicle purchase tax incentives and the decline in vehicle replacement subsidies. However, there are opportunities for high-end upgrades and accelerated penetration of smart technologies. The report maintains a positive outlook on the industry, emphasizing the ongoing technological transformation [14][5] - The report highlights the launch of several new models from companies like Xpeng and BYD, indicating a competitive landscape with innovative offerings [11][12][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) announced the 403rd batch of new vehicle models, including significant releases from Xpeng and BYD [11] - Xpeng unveiled four new models, including the P7+, G7, G6, and G9, with advanced AI capabilities and plans for mass production of humanoid robots and flying cars [12] - BYD launched the long-range version of the Qin family, featuring advanced technology and competitive pricing [13] Market Performance - From January 4 to January 9, 2026, the automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with the automotive index rising by 2.5% while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 3.8% [15] - The report notes that the automotive sector's trading volume increased during this period, indicating heightened market activity [15] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report provides a detailed forecast for several key companies, recommending stocks such as Xpeng, BYD, and others based on their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2024 to 2026 [6]

Core Insights - The report addresses three core issues: the interaction between credit restart and capital expenditure dual peaks driving physical pricing recovery, the asymmetric game among the credit systems of the US, Japan, and China, and the asset allocation recommendations under credit stratification [4]. Group 1: Credit Cycle and Capital Expenditure - 2026 is identified as a critical year for the global monetary pulse to convert into physical output, with four driving factors initiating a new credit cycle [6]. - The dual peaks of capital expenditure in 2024 and 2026 will create a resonance effect, where excess funds meet scarce physical resources, leading to nonlinear premiums and sources of excess profits [6][8]. - The credit cycle is described as the "entry ticket" for asset allocation, determining financing costs and flows, while capital expenditure peaks serve as verification points for asset premiums [10][12]. Group 2: Asymmetric Game in Global Credit Matrix - The global market has developed an interdependent yet unbalanced credit function division: the US drives demand through administrative rate cuts and fiscal subsidies, Japan acts as a "gatekeeper" by raising credit thresholds and interest rates, and China fills the physical gap as a "deflationary dividend" provider [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting assets with high interest coverage ratios (ICR) and return on invested capital (ROIC) in the US stock market, while focusing on resilient dividend blue chips in Japan and high-end manufacturing export chains in China [6][8]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on "physical rigidity" and cash flow resilience in asset selection, indicating a shift from liquidity-driven strategies to fundamental alpha [5][12]. - In the US, the strategy should prioritize cyclical blue chips and AI applications, while Japan's focus should be on value re-evaluation opportunities amid credit detoxification [89]. - For A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, the emphasis is on high-end manufacturing to leverage China's supply chain efficiency and obtain global premiums [89][90].

Group 1: Geely Automobile - Geely Automobile achieved a total sales volume of 3.025 million vehicles in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39%, exceeding its annual target [3] - The sales target for 2026 is set at 3.45 million vehicles, with brand-specific targets of 2.75 million for Geely (including Galaxy), 300,000 for Zeekr, and 400,000 for Lynk & Co [3] - The Galaxy brand significantly contributed to growth, with December 2025 sales exceeding 100,000 units, a 45% year-on-year increase, and total annual wholesale of 1.236 million units, up 149.9% [3][4] - Geely's export volume remained stable at 420,000 vehicles in 2025, with entry into 13 new markets and local production advancements in Egypt and Indonesia [5] Group 2: OSL Group - OSL Group completed the strategic acquisition of Banxa Holdings, enhancing its compliance and global payment capabilities [7] - Banxa serves as a bridge between traditional finance and digital assets, focusing on B2B payment solutions and compliance systems [8] - The acquisition is expected to significantly increase OSL's payment business revenue, with Banxa's revenue for the first half of 2025 projected at 53.93 million HKD [9] Group 3: Royal Technology - Royal Technology announced an employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) involving 48 core employees, representing 6.41% of the workforce, aimed at enhancing employee engagement and retention [13][15] - The ESOP includes performance targets for 2026, requiring a minimum of 12% growth in sales or net profit compared to 2025 [14][16] - The company is a leading producer of specialty surfactants, with a focus on customized products to meet diverse customer needs [17][18] Group 4: Huijia Times - Huijia Times reported a revenue of 1.868 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, a 1.2% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 80 million CNY, up 60.1% [20] - The company is implementing a self-reform strategy inspired by the "Pang Donglai" model, which has significantly boosted sales [21] - The company is also exploring low-altitude economy opportunities, integrating technology, logistics, and tourism for long-term growth [21] Group 5: Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing price increases, with polysilicon prices rising by approximately 10% week-on-week [33] - The wind power sector is seeing a surge in project approvals, with significant increases in both offshore and onshore wind projects expected in 2026 [34][35] - The energy storage market is expanding, with nearly 60 GWh of storage systems and equipment contracts awarded in December 2025 [36]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The new materials sector is a crucial direction for the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid growth in downstream demand. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate their long-term growth. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials leads to one generation of industries," highlighting the foundational nature of the new materials industry as the material basis for other industries [5][15]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus on semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [6] - Recent developments include NVIDIA's announcement of its new AI supercomputing platform, Vera Rubin, which has entered full production. The platform features six independent chips, with the Rubin GPU achieving a peak computing power of 50 Petaflops and a training performance 3.5 times that of its predecessor [7][37]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Focus on PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fiber [8] - The successful acquisition of a production license for the AS700 manned airship marks a significant milestone for China's aerospace industry, indicating a shift towards standardized and commercialized production [9][10]. 3. New Energy Sector - Focus on photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials [10] - A notable development is the introduction of the world's first all-solid-state battery by a Finnish startup, set to enter OEM mass production [11]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - Focus on synthetic biology and scientific services [12] - Beijing's economic development zone has announced measures to support the innovation and development of the synthetic biology manufacturing industry, aiming to establish a globally influential industry cluster by 2028 [13]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Focus on adsorbent resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [14] - The Guangxi government has issued a plan for green mine construction, aiming for over 90% of large and medium-sized mines to meet green standards by the end of 2028 [15]. 6. Industry Rating and Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from the catalytic effects of downstream application sectors, gradually entering a prosperous cycle, thus maintaining a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a seasonal inventory accumulation, with adjustments in export tax rebates for photovoltaic and battery products [1] - Despite a favorable macroeconomic environment, the industry faces challenges due to declining demand and high aluminum prices, which are suppressing downstream consumption [6][11] - The report suggests that while short-term pressures exist, the long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases [11] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of January 9, the LME three-month aluminum closing price is $3,136.0 per ton, up $115.0 from the previous week, and the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price is ¥24,330.0 per ton, up ¥1,405.0 [15][21] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang is ¥24,060.0 per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of ¥1,540.0 [21] 2. Production - In December 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum reached 3.781 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 144,000 tons, and a year-on-year increase of 197,000 tons [53] - The production of alumina in December 2025 was 7.520 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 80,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 181,000 tons [53] 3. Inventory - As of January 8, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was recorded at 714,000 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The alumina inventory at alumina plants increased by 33,000 tons, indicating a continued accumulation trend [9] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth for 2026 [5]