2025 年 04 月 03 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 陈云 S0350524070001 | | | cheny17@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 2024 年利润同比提升，积极扩产增厚业绩 ——龙星科技（002442）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/04/02 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 龙星科技 | 3.9% | 4.4% | 30.6% | | 沪深 300 | -0.1% | 1.7% | 8.5% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/04/02 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 6.45 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | | | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11]. Core Views - The company focuses on improving store quality while experiencing a decline in average store revenue. In 2024, the total number of stores decreased to 3,031, down by 785 from the previous year, with a net reduction of 360 and 425 stores in H1 and H2 respectively [7]. - The company has made progress in vacuum products, but the franchise channel has seen a significant decline. Direct channel revenue was 1.39 billion yuan, down 5.1%, while franchise channel revenue was 610 million yuan, down 21.9% [7]. - The company’s gross margin improved in H2 2024 due to a decrease in raw material prices and enhanced production efficiency, with a gross margin of 58.3%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 2.451 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 10.66%, and a net profit of 98 million yuan, down 15.03%. In H2 2024, revenue was 1.191 billion yuan, a decline of 10.38%, but net profit increased by 364.29% to 65 million yuan [6][7]. - The company’s average customer price was 54.39 yuan, down 4.4% year-on-year, as it expanded its mid-to-low price product offerings [7]. Future Outlook - The company aims to enhance single-store efficiency and restore revenue growth while exploring new channels such as bulk products and vacuum products. A strategic partnership was formed to develop a new line of compound seasonings [10]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.705 billion, 3.032 billion, and 3.458 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 10%, 12%, and 14% respectively. Net profit is expected to reach 129 million, 158 million, and 187 million yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 31%, 23%, and 18% [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's foreign currency asset hedging has mitigated the decline in interest margins, while its asset quality continues to improve [2][5]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 630.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 1.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 237.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 2.56% increase [5][7]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased to 1.25%, with a provision coverage ratio rising to 200.60%, indicating robust asset quality [5][7]. - The net interest margin for 2024 was reported at 1.40%, with a slight reduction of 1 basis point, showing signs of stabilization [7][8]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.24 yuan per share for 2024, representing a 2.54% increase from the previous year [5][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total assets reached 35.06 trillion yuan, growing by 8.11% year-on-year, while total loans amounted to 21.54 trillion yuan, up by 8.22% [5][8]. - Deposits totaled 24.20 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.66% [5][8]. - The report forecasts revenues for 2025-2027 to be 625.51 billion, 650.33 billion, and 683.35 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of -0.73%, 3.97%, and 5.08% [8][17]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 238.85 billion, 243.84 billion, and 249.12 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 0.42%, 2.09%, and 2.17% respectively [8][17]. Dividend Information - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 30%, with a projected dividend yield of 4.34% based on the current share price [9][17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288) [1][4][20] Core Views - Agricultural Bank of China achieved a revenue growth of 2.3% year-on-year and a net profit growth of 4.7% in 2024, maintaining its leading position among the six major banks [4] - The bank's financial performance in Q4 2024 showed significant improvement compared to the previous quarters, with revenue growth accelerating by 4.21 percentage points to 5.50% and net profit growth increasing by 5.83 percentage points to 9.21% [4] - The bank's asset quality remains controllable, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.30% at the end of Q4 2024, a slight decrease from the previous quarter [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, Agricultural Bank of China reported total revenue of 710.56 billion yuan and a net profit of 282.08 billion yuan [4][10] - The bank's total assets reached over 43.23 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year growth [4] - The bank's loan balance grew by 10.1% year-on-year, while deposit growth was 4.9% [4] Business Strategy - The bank is focusing on enhancing its county-level financial services, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in revenue from this segment [5] - Personal business loans have seen a remarkable growth of 35.0% year-on-year, contributing significantly to the bank's loan growth [5] - The bank plans to allocate over 70% of its new branches to county and rural areas, emphasizing support for rural revitalization [5] Profitability Forecast - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 715.61 billion yuan, 761.91 billion yuan, and 818.54 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 0.71%, 6.47%, and 7.43% [8][10] - Net profit is projected to reach 285.83 billion yuan, 298.83 billion yuan, and 316.67 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 1.33%, 4.55%, and 5.97% [8][10] - The bank's earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.77 yuan in 2025 to 0.86 yuan in 2027 [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][14]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 34.226 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.55%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.903 billion yuan, up 9.14% year-on-year [6][8]. - The company is recognized as a leader in the coal chemical industry, with ongoing projects at the Jingzhou base expected to drive future growth [14][45]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.046 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.31% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.26% [7][10]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 18.71%, a decrease of 2.14 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 12.21%, down 1.08 percentage points year-on-year [6][8]. - The company’s cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 4.968 billion yuan, an increase of 5.36% year-on-year, primarily due to increased cash inflows from product sales [9]. Product Performance - The company saw significant growth in sales volumes for fertilizers and acetic acid, with fertilizer sales increasing by 44.54% year-on-year to 4.7115 million tons, generating revenue of 7.297 billion yuan, up 28.55% year-on-year [8][12]. - The sales volume of new energy materials reached 2.5522 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.12%, with revenue of 16.433 billion yuan, up 6.19% year-on-year [8]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 37.5 billion yuan, 41.2 billion yuan, and 45.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 4.460 billion yuan, 5.007 billion yuan, and 5.701 billion yuan for the same years [14][45]. - The report highlights the ongoing construction of various projects, including a melamine resin project and a nylon 66 high-end materials project, which are expected to enhance production capacity and contribute to future growth [12][14].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Postal Savings Bank of China (601658) [2][9]. Core Views - The bank's deposit absorption capability is relatively strong, and its corporate business is developing healthily, leading to the "Accumulate" rating. The bank's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 348.775 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 86.479 billion yuan, reflecting a slight increase of 0.24% year-on-year [5][9]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Over the past year, Postal Savings Bank's stock has shown a performance of -2.4% over one month, -3.4% over three months, and a positive 18.2% over twelve months [3]. Financial Highlights - As of the end of Q4 2024, the bank's total assets exceeded 17.08 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.64%. The deposit balance grew by 9.54% year-on-year, while the loan balance increased by 9.38% [6][9]. Business Development - The bank's corporate loans increased by 13.5% year-on-year, indicating effective growth in corporate business. The bank's deposit growth outpaced loan growth, which is a unique position among state-owned banks [7][9]. Capital Increase - The bank announced a private placement of A-shares, raising a total of 1,175.80 billion yuan from the Ministry of Finance, China Mobile Group, and China Shipbuilding Group, which reflects confidence in the bank's future development [4][8]. Profit Forecast - The report forecasts that the bank's revenue will reach 350.547 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 0.51%. The net profit is expected to be 85.968 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline of 0.59% [10][19]. Dividend Information - The bank plans to distribute a dividend of 0.2616 yuan per share for the year 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 30% [11]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics, including a projected P/E ratio of 6.38 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 0.58 [19].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue growth of 3.76% year-on-year for 2024, with a net profit growth of 2.33%. The dividend payout ratio was increased to 30.50%, reflecting strong support for the real economy and a decrease in deposit costs [6][8]. - The company's asset scale reached 9.53 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 5.31%. Customer deposits totaled 5.78 trillion yuan, up 7.04% year-on-year [6][8]. - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.16%, showing stability in asset quality, while the provision coverage ratio decreased to 209.43% [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating income of 213.65 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 68.43 billion yuan. The quarterly revenue growth rate for Q4 was 3.56%, while the net profit growth rate for the same quarter was 7.49% [6][7]. - Interest income reached 146.68 billion yuan, growing by 2.19%, while non-interest income increased by 7.39% to 66.97 billion yuan, accounting for 31.3% of total revenue [6][8]. Asset Quality and Risk Management - The non-performing loan balance was 66.49 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.60%. The company maintained a stable asset quality with a slight decrease in the non-performing loan ratio [6][8]. - The net interest margin was 1.77%, showing a minor decline of 1 basis point year-on-year, while the interest expense on customer deposits decreased by 10.16% [6][8]. Future Projections - The company forecasts operating revenues of 214.86 billion yuan for 2025, with a growth rate of 0.57%. The net profit is expected to reach 70.22 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 2.40% [7][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in profitability metrics, with EPS projected to be 1.24 yuan in 2025, and P/E ratios expected to decrease over the next few years [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][18][48] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 28.396 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 0.41%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.601 billion yuan, up 14.33% year-on-year [6][8][18] - The company is transitioning towards new chemical materials, with special chemicals and fertilizers showing profit growth in 2024 [8][14][18] - The company has significant phosphate resource advantages and is expected to see new profit growth from new material projects [18][16] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 19.52%, an increase of 3.35 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 5.70%, up 0.77 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2024 was 1.589 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.90% [10][18] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 1.103 billion yuan, which represents 68.89% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [17][18] Product Segmentation - The special chemicals segment generated revenue of 5.278 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.97%, with a gross profit margin of 26.99% [8][21] - Fertilizer revenue reached 4.049 billion yuan, up 12.26% year-on-year, with a gross profit margin of 10.91% [8][21] - The pesticide segment saw revenue of 5.204 billion yuan, a 21.50% increase year-on-year, although the gross profit margin decreased by 17.78% [8][21] Future Outlook - The company forecasts revenues of 29.7 billion yuan, 31.9 billion yuan, and 33.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 2 billion yuan, 2.6 billion yuan, and 3.1 billion yuan [18][48] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing construction of key projects, enhancing its comprehensive strength in microelectronics new materials and green pesticides [14][15][18]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue growth of 0.87% year-on-year and a net profit increase of 0.93% for 2024, indicating stable financial performance [6][8]. - Asset quality has shown continuous improvement, with the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreasing to 1.31% and the provision coverage ratio rising to 201.94% [6][8]. - The company has effectively managed its funding costs, with a net interest margin that only slightly narrowed by 1 basis point year-on-year [8]. - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant rebound in both revenue and net profit growth compared to the first three quarters of the year [6][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 259.83 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 93.59 billion yuan [7]. - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenue growth rates of 2.88%, 4.19%, and 4.98%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 1.50%, 2.82%, and 3.62% [7][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.16 yuan in 2024 to 1.26 yuan by 2027 [7][8]. Asset Quality and Management - The company’s asset scale expanded to over 14.90 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.98% [6][8]. - The loan balance increased by 7.52% year-on-year, indicating a robust credit growth strategy [6][8]. - The improvement in asset quality is attributed to effective management of personal loans, with significant reductions in the delinquency and NPL rates [6][8]. Dividend Policy - The company declared a cash dividend of 0.379 yuan per share for 2024, representing a 1.07% increase from 2023 [6][13].

2025 年 04 月 02 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李娟廷 S0350524090007 lijt03@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 工程化工齐发展，新疆煤化工带来机遇 ——三维化学（002469）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 2024 年公司实现营业收入 25.54 亿元，同比下降 3.88%；实现归属 于上市公司股东的净利润 2.63 亿元，同比下降 6.92%。分板块看， 2024 年公司工程总承包业务实现营收 4.67 亿元，同比-1.32%，毛 利率 15.83%，同比减少 12.15 个百分点；工程设计实现营收 0.97 亿元，同比-19.79%，毛利率 48.58%，同比减少 1.01 个百分点；醛 醇酸酯类实现营收 14.08 亿元，同比+1.75%，毛利率 18.80%，同 比增加 4.73 个百分点；残液加工类实现营收 3.84 亿元，同比 -12. ...