2025 年 05 月 15 日 债券研究周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 信用债双周跟踪 最近一年走势 相关报告 刘畅》——2025-04-21 《债券研究周报：机构行为每周跟踪*靳毅，刘畅》 ——2025-04-14 《债券研究周报：大行注资落地，如何影响债市* 靳毅，刘畅》——2025-04-07 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 i 《固定收益点评：固收+如何应对债市波动？*靳 毅，刘畅》——2025-04-29 《债券研究周报：机构行为每周跟踪*靳毅，刘畅》 ——2025-04-28 《债券研究周报：存款利率补降意味着什么*靳毅， 本期（2025.04.28-2025.05.11，下同） 信用债发行规模 2,870.76 亿元，净融资-760.73 亿元；城投债发行规模 737.01 亿元，净融资 -815.07 亿元；产业债发行规模 2,133.75 亿元，净融资 54.34 亿元。 本期 信用债加权平均发行利率 2.05%。各券种加权平均发行利 率较上期（2025.04.14 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 刘熹 S0350523040001 liux10@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 05 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) [Table_Title] 定增强化信创、AIPC 及智算领域布局，鸿蒙+ 机器人加速发展 ——软通动力（301236）公司点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/05/14 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 软通动力 | 9.5% | -15.1% | 53.0% | | 沪深 300 | 4.9% | 0.1% | 7.8% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/05/14 | | 当前价格（元） | | | 59.84 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 29.20-80.50 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（百万） | 57,024.00 | | 流通市值（百万） | 40,710.07 | | 总股本（万股） | 95,294.12 | | 流通股本（万股） | 68,031.54 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 1,17 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 杨仁文 S0350521120001 yangrw@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 方博云 S0350521120002 fangby@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 05 月 15 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) [Table_Title] 现金投资+战略合作 52TOYS，强化 IP 衍生品业 务布局 ——万达电影（002739）公司点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | 2025/05/15 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 万达电影 | | -6.0% | -19.8% | -22.2% | | 沪深 300 | | 3.9% | -0.8% | 7.8% | | 市场数据 | 2025/05/15 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 10.64 | | 52 周价格区间（元） | 8.90-14.25 | | 总市值（百万） | 22,469.33 | | 流通市值（百万） | 22,188.50 | | 总股本（万股） | 211 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a strong foothold in the hemorrhoid treatment market, with a stable patient base and significant growth potential due to the high prevalence of hemorrhoid diseases, which affects over 50% of the population. The overall annual growth rate for hemorrhoid medications is around 7% [7] - The company is expanding its product line into health and wellness sectors, particularly with eye creams and wet wipes, which are gaining traction in the market. The wet wipes segment is experiencing rapid growth, and the company holds competitive advantages in brand and product quality [8] - The company has implemented channel optimization strategies to enhance operational capabilities, focusing on expanding into county-level and lower-tier markets [8] Summary by Sections 1. Hemorrhoid Treatment Market Leadership - The company has over 400 years of history and a unique "Eight Treasure" formula that is recognized as a national intangible cultural heritage, providing a strong efficacy foundation for its products [11] - The company’s product portfolio includes a comprehensive range of hemorrhoid treatments, with a significant market share of 50% in retail sales [7][18] - The company’s pharmaceutical segment contributes 90% of its gross profit, indicating a robust revenue model [39] 2. Growth Potential in Health and Wellness - The company has launched products like the "Little Blue Wet Wipes," which have quickly gained popularity, ranking high on sales charts [28] - The health and wellness segment is expected to enhance brand recognition, especially among younger consumers, thereby increasing the penetration of OTC products [25] 3. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.346 billion, 5.025 billion, and 5.822 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 624 million, 742 million, and 890 million yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 18.59, 15.64, and 13.04 times [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has a long history and strong brand heritage, founded by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping in 2000, establishing significant brand influence in the Chinese beauty industry [6][10] - The brand is experiencing accelerated growth and has substantial room for expansion, with a diverse range of high-repurchase products in the makeup category [6] - The company is driven by both product and channel strategies, continuously innovating in product offerings and maintaining a dual-channel approach for sales [6] - The brand has strong resource barriers, including a well-known professional makeup artist IP and unique high-end department store resources, which enhance consumer relationships and brand value [6] - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 5.368 billion, 6.976 billion, and 8.785 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, and net profits of 1.2 billion, 1.58 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB respectively [6] Company Overview - Mao Geping Cosmetics Co., Ltd. has established itself as a leader in the high-end beauty market in China, with a focus on makeup, skincare, and makeup training [10][11] - The company has two main brands: MAOGEPING and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, with a product mix that includes makeup, skincare, and training services [10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue grew from 1.577 billion RMB in 2021 to 2.886 billion RMB in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 58% in 2023 [11] - The net profit increased from 331 million RMB in 2021 to 881 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33% [11] Market Analysis - The Chinese beauty market is projected to continue growing, with the skincare and makeup sectors expected to reach a market size of 876.3 billion RMB by 2028, driven by a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6% [25] - High-end beauty brands are experiencing steeper growth curves compared to mass-market brands, with the high-end segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.9% from 2023 to 2028 [29][30] Product Strategy - The company is expanding its product lines in both makeup and skincare, with a focus on high-quality, high-priced products that reflect its premium positioning [63][81] - The makeup line includes a variety of products, with a strong emphasis on foundation and color cosmetics, while the skincare line is designed to enhance makeup application [64][69] Channel Strategy - The company employs a dual-channel strategy, leveraging both online and offline sales channels to maximize reach and consumer engagement [82] - The offline channel is expected to recover and grow, while online sales continue to dominate, reflecting changing consumer preferences [35][59]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][20]. Core Views - The company's overall performance in Q1 2025 exceeded expectations, driven by a focus on user experience and content ecosystem development, along with government subsidy policies and steady growth in supermarket categories [6][10]. - The adjusted net profit significantly surpassed Bloomberg consensus estimates, primarily due to better-than-expected gross margin and operating profit margin [6][10]. - The company is focusing on long-term investment returns from new businesses like food delivery, with a current daily order volume approaching 20 million [9][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [6][10]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [6][10]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [6][10]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [9][17]. - The forecast for net profit has been adjusted downwards to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [9][17]. - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [9][17].

2025 年 05 月 15 日 资产配置报告 研究所： 证券分析师： 林加力 S0350524100005 linjl01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评——攻守 之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口链弹性 资产配置报告 最近一年走势 相关报告 《资产配置报告：国新办发布会点评——资本市场 迎来多重利好*林加力》——2025-05-08 《4 月资金流向月报：价值型资金或仍为主要定价 力量*徐凝碧，林加力》——2025-05-07 《资产配置报告：社融总量超预期，信贷结构显现 积极变化*林加力，徐凝碧》——2025-04-17 事件: 5 月 12 日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》（以下简称"联合声明"）发 布，双方承诺将于 2025 年 5 月 14 日前采取以下举措：美国将（一）修 改 2025 年 4 月 2 日对中国商品加征的从价关税，其中，24%的关税在初 始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时保留按该行政令的规定对这些商品加征剩余 10%的关税；（二）取消 2025 年 4 月 8 日和 4 月 9 日的加征关税。中国 将（一）相应修改对美国商品加征 ...

2025 年 05 月 15 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 80 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 1）2025 年，特斯拉 Optimus 机器人有望开始量产，出货量、性能表现、应用场景或者降本速度或将超市场 预期（特斯拉公开指引出货量数千台级别）； 2）2025 年，宇树、华为、智元、小鹏、小米等国产机器人产业链发展或将加速； 3）2026 年，特斯拉人形机器人有望落地月产能万台级别的机器人产线，并正式开启人形机器人的对外交付 （来源：特斯拉官网）。 特斯拉官网开放多个 Optimus 相关岗位，北京亦庄人形机器人半程马拉松成功举办——人形机器人行业 2025 年 4 月月报--行业 PPT 报告 银锡价格上行带动业绩，资源雄厚成长可期--兴业银锡/工业金属(000426/212403) 公司动态研究 2024 年业绩高增，无极品牌出海放量--隆鑫通用/摩托车及其他(603766/212804) 公司点评 国盾量子(688027)公司报告：中国量子科技领军，"一体两翼"布局 ...

Group 1: Macro Economic Overview - The report highlights a dual-line struggle in overseas macroeconomic conditions characterized by trade negotiations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with domestic policies actively responding to these challenges [3][4] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive meeting, emphasizing rising risks of high unemployment and inflation, leading to increased uncertainty in economic outlook [3] - Recent trade agreements between the UK and the US, as well as ongoing negotiations between China and the US, have resulted in significant tariff reductions, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating similarly [3] Group 2: Alcoholic Beverages Industry - The overall market for alcoholic beverages, particularly the liquor segment, has shown signs of deceleration, with revenue growth for the white liquor sector slowing down significantly in Q4 2024 [10][11] - High-end liquor brands have demonstrated stable growth, with revenue increases of 11.53% year-on-year, while lower-tier brands have faced declines, indicating a clear market segmentation [11][12] - The report anticipates further differentiation within the white liquor industry, with strong brands likely to maintain growth while weaker brands may continue to struggle [14] Group 3: Food and Beverage Sector - The food and beverage sector has seen a 1.21% increase in the past two weeks, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index, with health products leading the growth at 4.16% [9] - Companies like Ximai Foods have reported a revenue increase of 20.2% year-on-year, indicating a robust performance in the snack food segment [32][33] - The report emphasizes the potential for growth in the snack food category, particularly through innovative product offerings and channel expansion [15][18] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry - Huahong Semiconductor reported a revenue of $541 million in Q1 2025, marking a 17.6% year-on-year increase, although net profit remains under pressure due to rising depreciation costs [20][21] - The company anticipates a revenue guidance of $550-$570 million for Q2 2025, which is below market expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in maintaining profitability amidst increased operational costs [22][23] - The semiconductor market is expected to benefit from recovering demand in downstream markets, although profit margins may continue to be squeezed by depreciation [23] Group 5: Pet Economy - The pet economy is experiencing significant growth, with domestic brands expected to thrive in the long term as consumer demand increases [25][31] - The report notes that the pet food market is still in a rapid development phase, with companies like Petty and Zhongchong showing strong performance [31] - The overall outlook for the pet industry remains positive, with expectations of continued expansion and improvement in profitability [31] Group 6: Dairy Industry - Tianrun Dairy reported a revenue of 2.804 billion yuan in 2024, a modest increase of 3.33%, but faced a significant decline in net profit by 69.26% [43] - The company’s Q1 2025 results showed a revenue drop of 2.5% year-on-year, indicating ongoing operational challenges [43] - The dairy sector is under pressure, with profitability being affected by market conditions and operational inefficiencies [43]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [2]. Core Views - The company is experiencing operational pressure and profit disturbances due to impairment issues, with a focus on the performance of Tianrun Dairy [3][4]. - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected at 2.804 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.33%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 69.26% to 44 million yuan [5][8]. - The report highlights the company's strong performance in low-temperature dairy products compared to its room-temperature counterparts, driven by product innovation [5][8]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenues of 13.59 billion yuan in the Xinjiang region, a decline of 6.31%, while revenues from outside Xinjiang are projected to grow by 9.25% to 13.65 billion yuan [5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is forecasted to be 16.8%, down 2.35 percentage points year-on-year, with a further decline to 14.63% in Q1 2025 [5][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit, projecting 73 million yuan in 2025, a 66% increase, and further growth to 179 million yuan in 2026, representing a 146% increase [7][8]. Market Performance - As of May 13, 2025, the company's stock price is 9.48 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 6.74 to 11.87 yuan [4]. - The company has underperformed the CSI 300 index over the past month, with a decline of 14.7% compared to a 3.9% increase in the index [4]. Forecast and Valuation - The report provides a forecast for the company’s revenue growth of 4% in 2025, 6% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 66%, 146%, and 18% respectively [7][8]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.23 yuan for 2025, 0.56 yuan for 2026, and 0.66 yuan for 2027, with price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 41.80, 16.96, and 14.41 respectively [7][9].