2025 年 05 月 18 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 张益 S0350124100016 zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 港口去库、电厂补库需求渐显，煤价预期开始好 转 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 煤炭开采 | -1.0% | -3.4% | -18.4% | | 沪深 300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《煤炭开采行业周报：4 月进口煤量继续减量，煤 价继 续探底（ 推荐）*煤炭 开采* 陈晨 》—— 2025-05-11 《煤炭开采行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述： 煤企成本下降难补煤价跌，煤企业绩进一步向合理 区间回归（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》——2025-05-09 《煤炭开采行业周报：港口库存延续去化，煤价筑 底下关注高股息价值（推荐）*煤炭开采*陈晨》— —2025-0 ...

2025 年 05 月 18 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 汽车 | | 9.2% | 2.5% | 27.9% | | 沪深 | 300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《商用车行业动态研究：以旧换新密集落地，2025 年重卡内需有望景气回升（推荐）*商用车*戴畅》 ——2025-05-17 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 吉利发布一季报暨"[Ta一ble个_T吉itle]利"战略整合计划， 长城魏牌全新高山正式上市 《特斯拉官网开放多个 Optimus 相关岗位，北京亦 庄人形机器人半程马拉松成功举办——人形机器 人行业 2025 年 4 月月报（推荐）*汽车*吴铭杰， 戴畅》——2025-05-14 ——汽车行业周报 《汽车行业周报：吉利星耀 8、理想 L 系列智能焕 新版正式上市（推荐）*汽车*戴畅》——2025-05-13 《汽车与汽 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group (9988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The core business shows steady growth, with a strong ongoing demand for AI [1] - The company reported a revenue of 236.5 billion yuan for FY2025Q4, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7% [9] - The adjusted EBITDA for the same period was 41.8 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [9] - The net profit surged to 12 billion yuan, marking a significant year-over-year increase of 1203% [9] Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025Q4, Alibaba achieved: - Revenue: 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ -16%) [9] - Operating profit: 28.5 billion yuan (YoY +93%, QoQ -31%) [9] - Adjusted EBITDA: 41.8 billion yuan (YoY +36%, QoQ -33%) [9] - Net profit: 12 billion yuan (YoY +1203%, QoQ -74%) [9] - Non-GAAP net profit: 29.8 billion yuan (YoY +22%, QoQ -42%) [9] Business Segment Performance - Taobao Group: - Revenue reached 101.4 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 9% [11] - Customer Management Revenue (CMR) increased by 12% [11] - Adjusted EBITA was 41.7 billion yuan, with an EBITA margin of 41% [11] - International Digital Commerce Group: - Revenue grew by 22% to 33.6 billion yuan, driven by strong cross-border business performance [13] - Cloud Intelligence Group: - Revenue increased by 18% to 30.1 billion yuan, with AI-related revenue showing triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [39] Future Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY2026-2028 are as follows: - FY2026: 1,087.3 billion yuan - FY2027: 1,193.2 billion yuan - FY2028: 1,312.5 billion yuan [44] - Projected net profits for the same period are: - FY2026: 144.5 billion yuan - FY2027: 169.3 billion yuan - FY2028: 192.8 billion yuan [44] Valuation and Target Price - The report estimates a target market value of 2,958.2 billion yuan for FY2026, corresponding to a target price of 155 yuan per share [44]

2025 年 05 月 18 日 固定收益点评 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 转债评级下调怎么看？ 固定收益点评 毅，范圣哲》——2024-10-27 《债券研究月报：高 YTM 转债配置正当时*靳毅， 范圣哲》——2024-08-25 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 证券研究报告 今年以来，多家转债主体发生评级调整，如东时转债、富淼转债等转债主体因业 绩下滑及偿债能力不足被下调评级。当前转债临近窗口期受信用风险担忧影响， 估值压力显著提升。基于此，我们将对下调评级的转债进行相关分析，以更好应 对信用风险的冲击。 1、评级调整回顾 1.1、历史评级调整及市场表现 转债市场发生主体评级具有明显季节性，评级调整集中发布于 6 月。2021-2024 年，发生主体下调评级共 193 次，占全部评级调整报告的 4.51%。从时间分布 上来看，评级下调事件高度集中在年中，其中超过 61%的下调评级集中在 6 月 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for commercial jet engine materials is experiencing significant growth, leading to a revaluation of the chromium salt industry chain [3] - ATI's aerospace business is showing strong growth, driven by the demand for aircraft engines, which is expected to boost performance [4][5] - The MRO (Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) market for aircraft engines is becoming a new growth point for the industry, with strong demand anticipated [6] Financial Performance - As of May 16, 2025, the current stock price is 21.41 yuan, with a market capitalization of 10,898.20 million yuan [3] - In Q1 2025, ATI's revenue from the commercial jet engine sector grew by 33.8% year-on-year, with the HPMC department's revenue in the U.S. increasing by 31.45% [5][15] - The company expects to achieve revenues of 49.85 billion yuan, 59.54 billion yuan, and 66.63 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.11 billion yuan, 9.28 billion yuan, and 11.80 billion yuan [10][11] Market Trends - The MRO market is projected to grow at a rate of 40%-50%, with significant contributions from partnerships with major companies like Pratt & Whitney [6] - The global aerospace engine market is dominated by major players, with GE Aerospace and CFM International holding a combined market share of 69% [6] Production Capacity - The company anticipates an increase in chromium salt production capacity from approximately 260,000 tons to over 350,000 tons following the completion of its Chongqing base relocation and technological upgrades [11][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market [7][8]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated steady growth in its performance, with a revenue of 2.462 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.08%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 325 million yuan, up 2.36% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company is focusing on enhancing its product competitiveness through increased R&D investment, which reached 112 million yuan in 2024, a 10.35% increase from the previous year [3][7]. - The company is expanding its production capacity with a planned investment of at least 850 million yuan for a new high-end intelligent CNC equipment project, expected to be completed by June 2027 [3][7]. Performance Overview - The company's revenue from large machining centers was 1.08 billion yuan in 2024, up 12.64% year-on-year, while vertical CNC machine revenue was 746 million yuan, up 15.44% year-on-year. However, horizontal CNC machine revenue decreased by 12.71% to 604 million yuan [2][7]. - Domestic revenue significantly increased to 2.107 billion yuan, a 31.34% rise, while overseas revenue fell to 342 million yuan, down 51.42% [2][7]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 2.742 billion yuan, 3.075 billion yuan, and 3.473 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 365 million yuan, 412 million yuan, and 471 million yuan [6][7]. - The report anticipates a continued growth trend, with a projected revenue growth rate of 11% in 2025, 12% in 2026, and 13% in 2027 [6][7]. Market Context - The overall market for metal cutting machine tools is expected to benefit from policy support and the rapid development of sectors such as new energy vehicles and artificial intelligence, which may enhance future demand for machine tools [7].

2025 年 05 月 17 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 徐鸣爽 S0350124100008 xums@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 以旧换新密集落地，2025 年重卡内需有望景气 回升 ——商用车行业动态研究 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 商用车 | 1.5% | -7.5% | 27.0% | | 沪深 300 | 3.1% | -1.3% | 6.8% | 相关报告 《商用车行业深度研究：重卡景气 2025 年有望拐 点向上，重卡公司或迎戴维斯双击（推荐）*商用 车*戴畅》——2025-01-07 《商用车行业动态研究：2024 年重卡批发同比微 降，2025 年有望向上均值回归（推荐）*商用车* 戴畅》——2025-01-05 事件： 2025 年 4 月我国重卡交强险上险量 6.9 万台，同比增长 6%，1-4 月累计 同比增 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][10]. Core Insights - The company is transitioning from a dealer-centric model to a direct sales approach, aiming to expand its second growth curve [5]. - The company has shown strong revenue growth, with a 13.50% year-on-year increase in 2024, reaching 1.7 billion yuan, and a 14.25% increase in Q1 2025 [2][10]. - The company is actively developing key components for humanoid robots, indicating a strategic move into high-growth sectors [5][10]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 229 million yuan, reflecting a 14.84% year-on-year increase [2]. - The revenue breakdown for 2024 shows significant contributions from various segments, with programmable logic controllers (PLC) generating 648 million yuan, a 21.09% increase, and drive systems contributing 806 million yuan, a 10.57% increase [3][10]. Business Segments - The PLC segment has a gross margin of 56.25%, while the drive systems segment has a gross margin of 24.46% [3]. - The company is expanding its presence in high-end manufacturing industries such as renewable energy, semiconductors, and robotics [3][4]. Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index significantly, with a 123.8% increase over the past 12 months [7]. - As of May 16, 2025, the stock price is 65.42 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 10.28 billion yuan [7][11]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are projected at 1.99 billion yuan, 2.32 billion yuan, and 2.72 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 274 million yuan, 335 million yuan, and 405 million yuan [9][10]. - The report anticipates a continued increase in profitability, with a projected return on equity (ROE) rising from 10% in 2024 to 12% by 2027 [11].

2025 年 05 月 16 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 81 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》点评——攻守之势迎转折，建议红利底仓叠加出口链弹性--资产配置报告 业绩整体好于预期，关注外卖长期投入产出效果--京东集团-SW/互联网电商(09618/214506) 点评报告（港股 美股） 毛戈平(1318.HK)深度报告：美妆先导，光蕴无界，熠熠生辉--毛戈平/化妆品(01318/217702) 公司 PPT 报告 （港股美股） 马应龙(600993)深度报告：深耕肛肠药品老字号，湿厕纸延伸带来新动力--马应龙/中药Ⅱ(600993/213702) 公 司 PPT 报告 现金投资+战略合作 52TOYS，强化 IP 衍生品业务布局--万达电影/影视院线(002739/217206) 公司点评 贴标债要关注什么？--债券研究周报 信用债双周跟踪--债券研究周报 定增强化信创、AIPC 及智算领域布局，鸿蒙+机器人加速发展--软通动力/IT 服务Ⅱ ...

2025 年 05 月 15 日 债券研究周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 贴标债要关注什么？ 最近一年走势 刘畅》——2025-04-21 《债券研究周报：机构行为每周跟踪*靳毅，刘畅》 ——2025-04-14 《债券研究周报：大行注资落地，如何影响债市* 靳毅，刘畅》——2025-04-07 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 i 相关报告 《固定收益点评：固收+如何应对债市波动？*靳 毅，刘畅》——2025-04-29 《债券研究周报：机构行为每周跟踪*靳毅，刘畅》 ——2025-04-28 《债券研究周报：存款利率补降意味着什么*靳毅， 贴标债现状几何 2020 年以来，我国贴标债发行规模显著增长， 截至 2025 年 5 月 12 日，贴标债存续规模已超 3 万亿元，占信用债 比例达 9.59%，规模可观。从分类来看，贴标债主要分为科创债、 绿色公司债、乡村振兴公司债、"一带一路"公司债券、中小微企 业支持债、可持续挂钩债、双创债等一系列品种。科创债及绿债为 其中核心的品种，截至 ...