Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.5 billion RMB for Q3 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 10.4%. The adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion RMB, up 17% year-over-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-over-year [4][6]. Financial Performance - The core online travel platform achieved a revenue of 4.6 billion RMB in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 15%, with an operating profit margin of 31.2% [6]. - Revenue from transportation ticketing was 2.2 billion RMB, up 9% year-over-year, driven by user demand insights and enriched value-added services [6]. - Accommodation bookings generated 1.58 billion RMB, also up 15% year-over-year, supported by an increase in high-quality hotel room nights and brand recognition in lower-tier cities [6]. - The vacation business faced a revenue decline of 8% year-over-year, totaling 900 million RMB, primarily due to security issues in Southeast Asia [6]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 47.7 million, a 2.8% increase year-over-year, with a total of 253 million annual paying users, up 8.8% year-over-year [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to benefit from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and international business expansion. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.3 billion RMB, 21.9 billion RMB, and 24.5 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.9 billion RMB, 3.2 billion RMB, and 3.7 billion RMB [6][8]. - The target market capitalization for 2026 is set at 60.2 billion RMB, with a target price of 28 HKD per share, maintaining the "Buy" rating [7].

Group 1 - The report highlights a shift in investment style, with the banking sector receiving increased capital inflows, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][3] - In the equity market, technology sector ETFs saw a significant net inflow of 755 billion yuan, with semiconductor, battery, and robotics themes being particularly favored [3] - The banking ETF recorded a net inflow of 58 billion yuan in October, marking a new monthly high for 2025, following a net inflow of 32 billion yuan in September [3] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing growth in bond ETFs, particularly in sci-tech bonds, corporate bonds, and government bonds, indicating strong investor interest [4] - The report notes a substantial increase in the buying of long-term government bonds by major banks, while insurance companies are also increasing their allocation to long-term bonds [4] - In the commodity market, there has been a shift in domestic investor preferences from gold stock ETFs to gold ETFs, with a notable net inflow of 337.82 billion yuan in October [4]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company, 万物新生 (RERE), reported Q3 2025 revenue of 5.149 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, reaching the high end of previous guidance [3][4] - The breakdown of revenue shows that 1P product revenue was 4.726 billion RMB, up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of second-hand consumer electronics [4] - The company expects Q4 2025 total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [3] Group 2: Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 1P business gross margin at 13.4%, up 1.7 percentage points [5] - Non-GAAP operating profit was 140 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, with a Non-GAAP operating profit margin of 2.7% [5] - GAAP net profit reached 91 million RMB, up 407.3% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, a 22.3% increase [5] Group 3: Business Expansion and Strategy - The company is actively expanding its offline store presence, with a total of 2,195 stores by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 558 stores year-on-year [4] - The 3P service revenue was 423 million RMB, up 11.6% year-on-year, driven by growth in multi-category recycling services [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the expansion of second-hand product acquisition channels and multi-category business growth, maintaining a "buy" rating [6] Group 4: Industry Insights - The bond market sentiment is currently divided, with seller sentiment rising and buyer sentiment declining, indicating a cautious market environment [7][9] - The macro liquidity remains loose, with significant improvements in equity fund issuance, while leverage funds have seen a slowdown [10] - The automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with significant declines in stock prices for major players during the recent week [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved Q3 revenue of 5.149 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 27.1%, reaching the high end of previous guidance [6] - Non-GAAP operating profit for Q3 was 140 million RMB, up 34.9% year-on-year, while Non-GAAP net profit was 110 million RMB, reflecting a 22.3% increase [6] - The company expects Q4 total revenue to be between 6.08 billion and 6.18 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.4% to 27.4% [6] Revenue Performance - Q3 revenue breakdown shows 1P product revenue at 4.726 billion RMB, up 28.7% year-on-year, driven by increased sales of second-hand consumer electronics [8] - 3P service revenue reached 423 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, primarily from multi-category recycling services [8] - The number of traded devices in Q3 was 10.9 million, compared to 9.1 million in the same period last year [8] Business Structure and Profitability - The company's gross margin for Q3 was 20.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with 1P business gross margin at 13.4%, up 1.7 percentage points [8] - Operating expenses showed improvement, with fulfillment expenses at 437 million RMB and a fulfillment expense ratio of 8.5%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] - GAAP operating profit was 121 million RMB, a significant increase of 385.1% year-on-year, with a GAAP operating margin of 2.3% [8] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 20.96 billion, 26.35 billion, and 32.38 billion RMB, with growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 23% respectively [10] - Non-GAAP net profit projections for the same period are 473 million, 664 million, and 900 million RMB, with growth rates of 51%, 40%, and 35% respectively [10] - The report highlights the company's potential for growth through expanded channels for second-hand goods and multi-category business expansion [10]

Report Overview - The report is a bond research weekly report dated November 24, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][5]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - From November 18 - 24, the bond market seller sentiment rose while the buyer sentiment declined again, with the two diverging, and the seller view divergence index also rose to a relatively high level. Despite the optimistic factors brought by the calendar effect, market sentiment remains contradictory and institutional caution persists [5]. Section Summaries 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted index was 0.42, up 0.04 from November 11 - 17, and the proportion of market - bullish views increased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 7 are moderately bullish, 14 are neutral, and 1 is moderately bearish. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing factors such as economic fundamentals pressure, monetary policy easing expectations, seasonal patterns, and institutional scramble for allocation. 29% are moderately bullish, due to the deepening asset - shortage pattern, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and the year - end "calendar effect". 58% are neutral, as there is a tug - of - war between bullish and bearish factors, bond yields are in a range - bound oscillation, the market is in a "policy vacuum period", and the 10 - year treasury bond yield may fluctuate within the regulatory - approved range. 4% are moderately bearish, believing that the main logic is the lack of incremental funds in the bond market, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect may strengthen, and the bond market's easing environment is hard to sustain [6][13]. 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 18 - 24, the tracked unweighted sentiment index was - 0.08, down from November 11 - 17. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - to - bearish views: 2 are moderately bullish, 18 are neutral, and 4 are bearish. 8% of institutions are moderately bullish, based on monetary policy easing expectations, recovery in allocation demand, and potential decline in risk appetite. 75% are neutral, due to policy uncertainty, the asset - shortage pattern, a capped - and - floored market, lack of a one - sided main line, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, believing that policies fall short of expectations, structural interest rate cuts hit liquidity expectations, and policy guidance may divert funds to the equity market [7][14].

| 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 赵阳 S0350525100003 | | | | zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 郭可凡 S0350124070038 | | | | guokf@ghzq.com.cn | 2025 年 11 月 24 日 策略周报 [Table_Title] 基金发行端回暖，杠杆资金有所放缓 ——流动性周报 11 月第 1 期 最近一年走势 投资要点: 相关报告 《存款搬家如何演绎——牛市资金面专题研究 (一)*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》——2025-08-10 ETF 系列报告（一）*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-30 《业绩基准如何选择*袁稻雨，胡国鹏》—— 2025-05-29 《如何看待近期涨价领域拥挤度偏高的情况*赵 阳》——2025-11-23 《美股 AI 泡沫度量与互联网周期定位*袁野，赵阳》 ——2025-11-16 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 1. 宏观流动性保持宽松，央行通过公开市场操作开展 7 天逆回购 净投放 5540 亿元，连续两周实现净投放。同时， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive industry is experiencing a decline in performance due to high base effects, with expectations of a decrease in passenger vehicle year-on-year growth by the end of 2025. However, the high-end passenger vehicle market is expected to perform relatively better in 2026 due to policy adjustments [17] - The report highlights the rapid iteration capabilities of new models such as the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9, indicating a trend towards advanced driving technologies becoming more accessible [14][15] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the commercial vehicle sector, particularly heavy trucks, with a recovery in domestic demand anticipated in 2025 [17] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector has underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly decline of 4.9% from November 17 to November 21, 2025 [5][18] - The Guangzhou Auto Show showcased 93 new car launches, with 58% being new energy vehicles, indicating a strong market presence for innovative technologies [13] Key Developments - The launch of the Xiangjie S9 and Xiaopeng X9 models reflects the industry's focus on high-end features and rapid product updates, with prices ranging from 309,800 to 369,800 yuan for the S9 [14] - Huawei's conference highlighted advancements in L3 autonomous driving technology, predicting a penetration rate of 30% by 2025 and over 50% by 2027 [15][16] Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, companies with quality offerings above 300,000 yuan are expected to benefit, with recommendations including Jianghuai Automobile, Geely, Xiaopeng, Great Wall, SAIC, Li Auto, Seres, and BYD [17] - In the parts sector, companies benefiting from the penetration of high-level intelligence into lower-priced models are recommended, including Huayang Group, Desay SV, and Kobot [17] - In the commercial vehicle segment, companies like Weichai Power, Foton, and China National Heavy Duty Truck are recommended due to expected recovery in heavy truck demand [17]

Group 1 - The smart electric vehicle business of Xiaomi Group achieved its first quarterly profit, with a record high profit in Q3 2025, reporting revenue of approximately 113.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.3% [4][5] - The automotive segment saw a significant increase in revenue, reaching 283 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year growth of 197.9%, driven by an increase in delivery volume and average selling price (ASP) [7] - The IoT and lifestyle products segment maintained year-on-year growth, achieving revenue of 276 billion RMB in Q3 2025, despite subsidy reductions [6] Group 2 - Top Group reported a revenue of 209.28 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, with a notable growth in the automotive electronics business [10] - The company’s Q3 2025 revenue reached 79.94 billion RMB, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.53%, primarily due to increased sales from key customers [10][11] Group 3 - Baidu Group's total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately 311.74 billion RMB, a year-on-year decline of 7%, influenced by decreases in online marketing and iQIYI revenues [13][15] - The AI-driven marketing services within Baidu's core business saw a significant increase, with revenue reaching 28 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 262% [15] Group 4 - XPeng Motors reported a revenue of 203.8 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with automotive revenue contributing 180.5 billion RMB [19][20] - The company expects Q4 2025 deliveries to reach between 125,000 and 132,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3% [21] Group 5 - Lenovo Group reported a revenue of approximately 204.52 billion USD for FY2026Q2, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with AI-related business revenue accounting for 30% of total revenue [24][25] - The infrastructure solutions group within Lenovo saw a revenue increase of 24%, driven by new customer acquisitions and business transformations [26] Group 6 - The AIDC storage report indicates a high demand in the industry, with significant growth expected in the data center storage market, projected to reach 212 GWh globally by 2030 [28][29] - The report highlights that data center storage has shifted from being an optional configuration to a necessity, driven by increasing power density and load demands [29][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the new materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The new materials sector is positioned as a crucial direction for the future development of the chemical industry, currently experiencing rapid demand growth in downstream applications. With policy support and technological breakthroughs, domestic new materials are expected to accelerate into a long-term growth phase. The report emphasizes that "one generation of materials leads to one generation of industries," highlighting the foundational role of new materials in supporting other industries [4][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Information Sector - Focus areas include semiconductor materials, display materials, and 5G materials [5]. - The overall sales of the chip design industry in China is projected to reach 835.73 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 29.4% compared to 2024 [6][23]. 2. Aerospace Sector - Key materials of interest are PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers [8]. 3. New Energy Sector - The report highlights solar photovoltaic materials, lithium-ion batteries, proton exchange membranes, and hydrogen storage materials as focal points [10]. 4. Biotechnology Sector - The focus is on synthetic biology and scientific services [11]. 5. Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - Key materials include adsorption resins, membrane materials, and biodegradable plastics [13]. 6. Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2023, 2024E, and 2025E, along with their price-to-earnings (PE) ratios and investment ratings [16]. - Notable companies include: - Ruihua Tai (688323.SH) with a 2025E EPS of 0.26 and a "Hold" rating - Guangwei Composite (300699.SZ) with a 2025E EPS of 0.97 and a "Buy" rating - Zhongfu Shenying (688295.SH) with a 2025E EPS of 0.23 and a "Buy" rating - Wanrun Co., Ltd. (002643.SZ) with a 2025E EPS of 0.53 and a "Buy" rating - Dinglong Co., Ltd. (300054.SZ) with a 2025E EPS of 0.96 and a "Buy" rating [16].

证券研究报告 2025年11月23日 机械设备 机械行业专题报告： 摩托车行业2025年10月海关数据更新 -11% 0% 11% 22% 33% 43% 2024/10/24 2025/04/24 2025/10/24 机械设备 沪深300 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年1-10月数据更新（推荐）*机械设备* 张钰莹》——2025-11-16 《人形机器人专题5：Sim to Real，具身大模型的问题、现状与投资机会（推 荐）*机械设备*张钰莹》——2025-11-10 《机械行业专题报告：摩托车行业2025年9月海关数据更新（推荐）*机械设备 *张钰莹》——2025-10-26 评级：推荐(维持) 张钰莹(证券分析师) S0350524100004 zhangyy03@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | -6.0% | -1.6% | 22.7% | | 沪深300 | -3.3% | 3.9% | 11.6% | 请务必阅读报告附注中的风险提示和 ...