2024 年 09 月 21 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 国家+地方以旧换新政策共振，汽车销售景气 2024H2 有望持续景气向上 ——汽车行业专题研究 最近一年走势 投资要点: 国家两轮以旧换新政策递进深化，汽车消费刺激效果明显。2024 年 7-8 月汽车以旧换新申请量快速增长。自 2024 年 7 月政策加码提高 补贴金额以来，成效逐步显现。截至 9 月 14 日零时，汽车以旧换新 信息平台累计登记注册用户数超 150 万个，收到汽车报废更新补贴 申请突破 100 万份。2024 年 9 月 1 日 10 时至 2024 年 9 月 14 日零 时，期间日均新增全国汽车报废更新补贴申请超 1 万份。2024 年 1-8 月，报废汽车回收 421.3 万辆，同比增长 42.4%，其中 5 月、6 月、 7 月、8 月分别同比增长 55.6%、72.9%、93.7%、73.8%。 行业相对表现 2024/09/20 表现 1M 3M 12M 地方购车补贴政策加速出台，已出台政策区域 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company has introduced an equity incentive plan, demonstrating confidence in its future development. The plan involves granting 4.78 million stock options to 29 individuals, representing 0.94% of the total share capital at a grant price of 19.97 yuan per share, which is 80.5% of the stock price on September 18, 2024 [2][3]. - The incentive plan is designed to bind the company's executives and core employees, with performance targets set for revenue growth and net profit over the next three years, indicating a challenging yet optimistic outlook for the company's future [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Recent Performance - The company's stock performance over the past month shows a 7.4% increase, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 4.0% [3]. - The current stock price is 27.29 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 23.67 to 38.72 yuan [3]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are set at 75.41 billion, 82.34 billion, and 89.17 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 9%, and 8% respectively [4][5]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 9.58 billion, 11.26 billion, and 12.47 billion yuan, with growth rates of 19%, 18%, and 11% respectively [5][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.89, 2.22, and 2.46 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5][6]. Incentive Plan Details - The incentive plan includes two performance tiers: achieving a trigger value allows for 70% of options to be exercised, while reaching the target value allows for 100% [3]. - The revenue targets for the trigger value are set at 75.4 billion, 85.7 billion, and 97.5 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with corresponding net profit targets of 8.6 billion, 10.2 billion, and 12.1 billion yuan [3][4].

2024 年 09 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 2025 年制冷剂配额意见稿发布，2025 年 HFCs 生产和使用总量控制目标保持在基线值 ——氟化工行业动态研究 最近一年走势 事件： 2024 年 9 月 13 日，我国生态环境部发布关于公开征求 2025 年度消耗臭 氧层物质和氢氟碳化物配额总量设定和分配方案意见的函。据该方案， 2025 年度我国 HCFCs 生产配额总量为 16.36 万吨，内用生产配额总量 和使用配额总量均为 8.60 万吨，2025 年度我国 HCFCs 生产和使用量分 别削减基线值的 67.5%和 73.2%。 2025 年度我国 HFCs 生产和使用总量控制目标保持在基线值（基线是 2020 至 2022 年 HFCs 平均值加上 HCFCs 基线水平的 65%， ...

2024 年 09 月 19 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 8 月动力煤行业大幅去库存，火力发电增速转正 ——煤炭开采行业动态研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 电力：规上工业电力生产加快。8 月份，规上工业发电量 9074 亿千瓦时， 同比增长 5.8%，增速比 7 月份加快 3.3 个百分点。1-8 月份，规上工业 发电量 62379 亿千瓦时，同比增长 5.1%。分品种看，8 月份，规上工业 火电由降转增，水电增速回落，核电、风电、太阳能发电增速有所加快。 其中，规上工业火电同比增长 3.7%，7 月份为下降 4.9%；规上工业水电 增长 10.7%，增速比 7 月份回落 25.5 个百分点；规上工业核电增长 4.9%， 增速比 7 月份加快 0.6 个百分点；规上工业风电增长 6.6%，增速比 7 月 份加快 5.7 个百分点；规上工业太阳能发电增长 21.7%，增速比 7 月份 加快 5.3 个百分点。 行业相对表现 2024/09/18 表现 1M 3M 12M 煤炭开采 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------| | 2024 \n研究所： 证券分析师： | 年 09 月 20 日 \n 余春生 S0350513090001 | 晨会纪要 \n晨会纪要 [Table_Title] | | | yucs@ghzq.com.cn | —— 2024 年第 166 期 | 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 短债还有哪些机会--债券研究周报 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、短债还有哪些机会--债券研究周报 分析师：靳毅 S0350517100001 分析师：刘畅 S0350524090005 短债还有哪些机会 造成近期中短端国债快速下行的直接原因是大行"买短卖长"的操作。大行的动因有三：①监管导向或是主因。 8 月央行开始买短卖长的操作，以维持倾斜向上的收益率曲线，或对大行产生一定影响。②从比价角度，考虑 到税收及风险资本占用后，短国债相对 DR007 更具性价比。③ ...

Key Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a cyclical recovery, driven by inventory replenishment and recovery in the downstream mobile and PC supply chains, leading to steady year-on-year growth in overall performance [2][3] - The digital chip design sector has seen significant revenue growth and improved profit margins due to rising demand from smart home and consumer electronics, with AIoT demand expected to continue growing [2][3] - The AI edge wave is anticipated to accelerate, benefiting various hardware segments, with recommendations to focus on companies like Luxshare Precision, Pengding Holdings, and others [4][3] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor equipment sector maintained high growth in the first half of 2024, with domestic wafer fabs expected to continue expanding, leading to increased localization rates [2][3] - The digital chip design industry benefited from a recovery in downstream demand, with significant revenue growth and improved profit margins [2][3] - The analog chip design sector also showed revenue growth, with a positive trend in profit recovery, supported by demand recovery and potential mergers [3] Consumer Electronics - The acceleration of AI in consumer electronics is expected to drive both volume and price increases in smartphones and PCs, with key players in assembly and components recommended for investment [3][4] - The anticipated decline in interest rates may further stimulate demand in emerging markets, particularly for companies with strong overseas market presence [3] Publishing and Media - In the first half of 2024, the publishing business of Southern Media saw a slight decline in revenue but an increase in gross profit margin, with a focus on expanding educational publishing [8][9] - The company achieved a gross profit margin of 34.21% in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase [8][9] New Materials - The new materials sector is poised for growth, driven by rapid demand in downstream applications, with a focus on semiconductor materials and aerospace components [5][6] - The successful test flight of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant advancement in China's commercial space capabilities, indicating potential growth in the aerospace materials sector [6] AI and Computing - OpenAI's new model is expected to significantly increase demand for computing power, with major tech companies raising their capital expenditure forecasts for AI-related investments [14][15] - The AI server market is experiencing robust growth, with several manufacturers reporting substantial year-on-year revenue increases [15][16]

Key Insights - The 2025 BYD Han models, featuring advanced LiDAR technology, have been officially launched with prices starting from 165,800 CNY for the DM-i version and 179,800 CNY for the EV version, marking a significant upgrade in aesthetics, driving control, technology, and intelligence [13][15] - The LiDAR technology is also being utilized in the gaming industry, particularly in the game "Black Myth: Wukong," showcasing its capability in high-precision 3D reconstruction, enhancing visual effects and immersion [20][22] Market Overview - From September 9 to September 13, 2024, the A-share market saw the telecommunications, real estate, and computer sectors perform well, with respective gains of +2.11%, -0.50%, and -0.52%. In contrast, the food and beverage, oil and petrochemical, and social services sectors experienced declines of -5.54%, -3.73%, and -3.71% [27] - The North Exchange 50 index had a PE TTM of 27.62X as of September 13, 2024, with a five-day moving average trading amount of 2.261 billion CNY and a trading volume of 242 million shares [35] Industry Highlights - BYD's 2025 Han models are equipped with the DiPilot 300 high-level intelligent driving assistance system, featuring a combination of LiDAR, cameras, ultrasonic radars, and millimeter-wave radars, achieving L2+ level driving assistance [17][19] - The XT series LiDAR products from Hesai Technology are being widely applied in various fields, including autonomous driving, robot navigation, and security monitoring, significantly contributing to the scaling of autonomous driving technology [24][26] Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on the smart automotive industry chain, with specific stock recommendations including Juguang Technology, Changguang Huaxin, Yongxin Optical, Huace Navigation, Jingwei Hengrun, and Longsheng Technology [49][50]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the electronic industry [1][4]. Core Insights - The electronic industry is experiencing robust growth, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, driven by the recovery in downstream demand and the rise of AI applications [11][17]. - The semiconductor sector is witnessing a cyclical recovery, with improved profitability in digital chip design and semiconductor packaging sectors, supported by a strong order backlog in semiconductor equipment [2][21]. - The AI wave is expected to be a major growth driver for the electronic industry in the coming years, with companies possessing core competitiveness likely to benefit from industry upgrades [4][36]. Summary by Sections 1. Electronic Industry Performance - In H1 2024, the electronic industry achieved total revenue of 1,550.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.30%, and a net profit of 64.7 billion yuan, up 39.24% [11]. - The gross margin for the electronic industry improved to 15.78%, with a net margin of 3.99% [11]. 2. Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor industry reported revenue of 273.83 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 22.01% year-on-year increase, with a net profit of 17.92 billion yuan, up 11.61% [17]. - The semiconductor equipment sector saw revenue growth of 38.45% year-on-year, reaching 28.76 billion yuan, with a net profit increase of 11.95% [22][26]. 3. Digital Chip Design - The digital chip design industry experienced a revenue increase of 36.01% year-on-year, totaling 69.33 billion yuan, with net profit soaring by 165.94% [45]. - The gross margin for this sector improved to 34.35%, reflecting strong demand from AIoT applications [45][48]. 4. Consumer Electronics - The consumer electronics sector is expected to benefit from the acceleration of AI applications, with potential for simultaneous increases in volume and price for smartphones and PCs [3][4]. - The demand for personal audio devices and wearable technology is showing strong growth, with significant increases in shipment volumes [50][52]. 5. Panel Industry - TV panel prices are projected to decline by 2%-7% in Q3 2024, with some leading companies' valuations at low levels, suggesting potential investment opportunities [3][4]. 6. Components and PCB - The PCB market is expected to see growth driven by innovations in AI, data centers, and electric vehicles, with high-performance PCB products likely to gain market share [3][4].

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 2024 | 09 月 18 日 | | 行业研究 评级：推荐 ( 维持 ) | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9]. Core Insights - The company's publishing business shows steady performance, with a focus on expanding into new educational publishing sectors, while general book sales have declined due to market conditions [3][5]. - In H1 2024, the company reported a slight decrease in revenue of 0.83% year-on-year, with total revenue reaching 4.025 billion yuan and a gross profit of 1.377 billion yuan, reflecting a gross margin of 34.21%, which is an increase of 2.73 percentage points year-on-year [2][5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2024 was 299 million yuan, down 27.22% year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit was 330 million yuan, down 5.95% year-on-year [2][5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The publishing segment generated revenue of 1.391 billion yuan in H1 2024, a decrease of 1.69% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30.90%, up 4.22 percentage points [3][5]. - The distribution segment's revenue was 3.193 billion yuan, down 4.37% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.60%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points [3][5]. - General book sales saw a significant decline, with revenue of 184 million yuan, down 17.21% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 9.3%, up 0.63 percentage points [5]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is leveraging its geographical advantage in Guangdong Province and is optimistic about future growth despite current pressures on earnings due to tax policies [6][9]. - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are estimated at 9.923 billion yuan, 10.697 billion yuan, and 11.557 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 938 million yuan, 1.022 billion yuan, and 1.119 billion yuan [6][9]. - The report anticipates a stable growth trajectory for the company, supported by its embrace of AI and new business models [6][9].