2024 年 09 月 18 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024Q2 业绩符合预期，高职并购再下一城--学大教育/教育(000526/214611)公司动态研究 优势业务引领增长，电动化+国际化成果显著--柳工/工程机械(000528/216406)公司动态研究 摩洛哥工厂稳步推进，Q2 净利润环比提升--森麒麟/汽车零部件(002984/212802)公司动态研究 江南布衣纳入港股通，复锐长效肉毒中国获批--行业周报（港股美股） 丁二烯价格持续上涨，盐湖股份实控人拟变更--行业周报 市场底部左侧阶段非银兼具相对价值与绝对价值，比特币或将开启新一轮上攻行情--行业周报 铝行业周报：海外降息逐步落地，国内延续"去库+涨价"逻辑--行业 PPT 报告 8 月乘用车产销环比增长，问界 M9 五座版正式上市/智界 R7 开启预订--行业周报 中秋反馈平淡，静待需求复苏--行业周报 同业存单行情怎么看？--固定收益点评 轻工行业周度跟踪：以旧换新政策持续推进，积极关注出口链 ...

证券研究报告 轻工制造 2024年09月17日 轻工行业周度跟踪：以旧换新政策持续推进， 积极关注出口链+必选个护品类 行业评级：推荐（维持） 林昕宇(证券分析师) 赵兰亭(证券分析师) S0350522110005 S0350524080004 linxy01@ghzq.com.cn zhaolt@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -33% -26% -19% -13% -6% 1% 2 0 2 3/0 9/15 2 0 2 3/10/15 2 0 2 3/11/15 2 0 2 3/12/15 2 0 2 4/01/15 2 0 2 4/0 2/15 2 0 2 4/0 3/15 2 0 2 4/0 4/15 2 0 2 4/0 5/15 2 0 2 4/0 6/15 轻工制造 沪深300 2 0 2 4/0 7/15 2 0 2 4/0 8/15 沪深300表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 轻工制造 -6.5% -16.3% -32.8% 沪深300 -5.3% -10.4% -15.5% 《轻工行业周度跟踪：文化纸发布涨价函，个护品类电商渠道稳步增长（推荐） *轻工制造*林昕宇》——202 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------|-------|--------|----------------------------------| | | | | | | 研究所： | | | | | 证券分析师： | | 刘洁铭 | S0350521110006 liujm@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 秦一方 | S0350523120001 qinyf@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 景皓 | S0350124030009 jingh@ghzq.com.cn | 2024 年 09 月 17 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) [Table_Title] 中秋反馈平淡，静待需求复苏 ——食品饮料行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点: 行业相对表现 2024/09/13 1 、 大 盘 整 体 下 滑 ， 食 饮 板 块 显 著 承 压 。 上 周 （2024/09/09-2024/09/13）一级行业中食品饮料跌幅 5.54%，跑输 上证综指（-2.23%）3.31 个百分点。各细分行业中其他酒类仍有上 涨，上涨 0.46% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is expected to maintain a tight balance in the coming years, characterized by high asset quality, abundant cash flow, and strong profitability [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on low-priced coal stocks and identifies several investment opportunities across different categories [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices have seen a slight increase, with the Qinhuangdao port price reaching 857 RMB/ton, up 11 RMB/ton week-on-week [10] - Daily coal consumption at coastal power plants was 2.392 million tons, down 1.6% week-on-week, while inland power plants consumed 3.643 million tons, down 11.3% week-on-week [9][14] - The overall supply elasticity for domestic production and imports remains low, with structural shortages persisting [9][14] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are stabilizing, with the main coking coal price at the Jing Tang port remaining unchanged at 1770 RMB/ton [28] - The average crossing volume at the Ganqimaodu port increased to 703 trucks, up 84 trucks week-on-week [27][32] - The report anticipates a bottoming out of coking coal prices, contingent on steel market performance [27][28] 3. Coke - The coke industry is experiencing a narrowing of losses, with some coking enterprises announcing price increases [38] - The price of metallurgical coke at Tianjin port was 1650 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [38] - Steel prices have rebounded, with rebar prices increasing to 3330 RMB/ton, up 120 RMB/ton week-on-week [38] 4. Hydropower Situation - The Three Gorges Reservoir's outflow increased to 7760 cubic meters per second, up 180 cubic meters per second week-on-week [24]

证券研究报告 有色金属 2024年09月16日 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------|------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 评级：推荐(维持) | | | | 陈晨(证券分析师) | 王璇(证券分析师) | | | | S0350522110007 | S0350523080001 | | 铝行业周报：海外降息逐步落地，国内延续"去库+涨价" 逻辑 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -24% -17% -9% -2% 6% 13% 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：铝锭去库提速，氧化铝偏强上涨，关注需求旺季及降息（推荐） *有色金属*王璇，陈晨》——2024-09-08 《铝行业周报：铝价仍然偏强，关注需求旺季及降息（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2024-09-01 《铝行业周报："去库+涨价"延续，美联储降息表态明确（推荐）*有色金属 *王璇，陈晨》——2024-08-2 ...

2024 年 09 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 8 月乘用车产销环比增长，问界 M9 五座版正式 上市/智界 R7 开启预订 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 行业相对表现 2024/09/13 周动态：8 月乘用车产销环比增长，问界 M9 五座版正式发布/智界 R7 开启预订。 8 月乘用车产销环比增长。根据中汽协公布的数据，2024 年 8 月， 汽车产销分别完成 249.2 万辆和 245.3万辆,环比分别增长 9%和 8.5%, 同比分别下降 3.2%和 5%。乘用车产销分别完成 222.1 万辆和 218.1 万辆,环比均增长 9.4%,同比分别下降 2.3%和 4%。其中，新能源汽车 产销分别完成 109.2 万辆和 110 万辆，同比分别增长 29.6%和 30%， 新能源汽车新车销量达到汽车新车总销量的 44.8%。汽车出口 51.1 万辆，环比增长 9%，同比增长 25.4%。分车型看，乘用车出口 43.8 万辆，环比增长 9.7%，同比增长 25.6%；商 ...

2024 年 09 月 16 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 孙嘉赓 S0350523120002 sunjg@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 市场底部左侧阶段非银兼具相对价值与绝对价 值，比特币或将开启新一轮上攻行情 行业相对表现 2024/09/13 证券：券商底部高赔率，并购催化持续，仍待市场因素积极转向。1）上 周证券 II（申万）指数下降 0.59%，截至 2024 年 9 月 13 日，券商指数 PB(lf)回升到 1.00，自指数创建以来估值分位 0.30%，且该指数 50 个成 分股中 PB 估值"破净"的仍高达 17 只。2）自国泰君安收购海通证券 交易公告以来，这一堪称我国证券历史上体量最大的并购案无疑吹响了 本轮券业并购潮的号角，大概率也将按下券商间并购整合的加速键，兼 具实际意义与象征意义。与此同时，市场对券商并购的关注度明显升温， 除其他头部券商的潜在并购交易牵动人心之外，众多中小券商或将同步 加速推进并购重组交易，上周重点受益的是天风证券，我们预计后续券 商板块的并购重组交易主线或将持续发酵。3）由于当前板块估值处于历 史底部，安全垫较 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1][22] Core Viewpoints - The global chemical industry is experiencing an upward trend in long cycles, with significant changes occurring on the supply side. European companies are facing substantial profit declines due to rising costs and aging equipment, leading to accelerated capacity exits. Domestic outdated capacity is at the breakeven point, and stricter environmental inspections and energy consumption standards are expected to clear out this capacity. New domestic capacity is gradually reaching its peak, and future capital expenditures are likely to decline. Demand is improving both externally and internally, indicating that the global chemical cycle has bottomed out. Chinese leading enterprises have established clear cost and efficiency advantages and are continuing to expand capacity, entering a phase of increasing market share and strong performance growth [2][22]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - As of September 12, 2024, the Guohai Chemical Prosperity Index stands at 95.71, a decrease of 1.21 from September 5, 2024 [1]. Performance Analysis - The chemical industry has shown relative performance declines of -5.5% over 1 month, -15.8% over 3 months, and -27.3% over 12 months, compared to the CSI 300 index which has declined by -5.3%, -10.4%, and -15.5% respectively [2]. Key Opportunities 1. Low-cost expansion targets include companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Linglong Tire, and others [2]. 2. Industries with improving prosperity include tire equipment, refrigerants, polyester filament, phosphate rock, and others [3]. 3. New materials industries with low domestic production rates are also highlighted, including PI films and electronic chemicals [4]. 4. High-dividend central state-owned enterprises are recommended, such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [4]. 5. Investment opportunities in the real estate supply chain are emphasized, particularly in companies like Wanhua Chemical and Longbai Group [4]. Price Trends - Notable price increases include natural rubber at 15,500 RMB/ton (+5.08%), DMC at 4,400 RMB/ton (+4.76%), and butadiene at 13,600 RMB/ton (+4.62%) as of September 13, 2024 [6][7]. Company Updates - Wanhua Chemical has resumed normal production after maintenance, with MDI prices at 18,300 RMB/ton [8]. - Linglong Tire has returned 50 million RMB to its fundraising account [9]. - China Petroleum announced a cash dividend of 0.22 RMB per share, totaling 40.265 billion RMB [10]. Market Sentiment - The overall sentiment in the chemical market is positive, driven by limited supply and increasing demand, particularly in the butadiene market [7].

2024 年 09 月 13 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | --- | --- | |--------------|------------------------------------------| | | | | 研究所： | | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 贾冰 S0350524030003 jiab@ghzq.com.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------------|-------| | 最近一年走势 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

相对沪深 300 表现 2024/09/13 | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|--------------------------------------|----------| | 2024 | 年 09 月 13 日 | 公司研究 | | 研究所： 证券分析师： | 姚健 S0350522030001 yaoj@ghzq.com.cn | | | 联系人 ： | 梅朔 S0350123070010 meis@ghzq.com.cn | ——柳工（ | 评级：买入(首次覆盖) [Table_Title] 优势业务引领增长，电动化+国际化成果显著 000528）动态研究 事件: 最近一年走势 柳工 9 月 5 日在微信公众号更新产品交付进展：8 月 30 日，16 台柳工电 动装载机成功批量交付某实力矿山企业。 柳工 8 月 29 日公告 2024 年半年报：2024H1，公司实现营业收入 160.60 亿元，同比+6.81%；实现归母净利润 9.84 亿元，同比+60.20%；实现扣 非归母净利润 9.03 亿元，同比+73.01%。 投资要点: | ...