表现 1M 3M 12M 2024 年 09 月 03 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 孙嘉赓 S0350523120002 sunjg@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 业绩短期内承压，关注券商 IT 投入收缩/延迟对 项目落地验收的影响 ——顶点软件（603383）公司点评 最近一年走势 事件: 顶点软件 2024 年 8 月 27 日发布公告：在 2024 年上半年，公司实现营 业收入 2.67 亿元，同比-4.93%。实现归母净利润 4878.24 万元，同比 -21.11%。实现扣非归母净利润 4117.12 万元，同比-23.13%。其中 2024Q2，公司实现营业总收入 1.29 亿元，同比-13.88%。实现归母净利 润 3257.40 万元，同比-17.95%，环比+100.97%。实现扣非归母净利润 2923.34 万元，同比-20.78%，环比+144.88%。 投资要点: 相对沪深 300 表现 2024/09/02 顶点软件 -21.6% -23.8% -50.7% 业绩短期内承压，关注券商 IT 投入收缩/延迟对项目落地验收的影 响。20 ...

2024 年 09 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2024 年第 155 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 公司业绩稳健，有望受益柔性直流需求释放--许继电气/电网设备(000400/216308) 公司点评 上半年逆势增长，升级"双美+双保健"模式--美丽田园医疗健康/美容护理(02373/2177) 点评报告（港股美股） REITs 出表贡献利润，2024H1 业绩实现高增--深圳国际/铁路公路(00152/214209) 点评报告（港股美股） 公司业绩维持快速增长，有望持续受益国内电网建设高景气--平高电气/电网设备(600312/216308) 公司点评 成本控制能力强，业绩波动较小--淮北矿业/煤炭开采(600985/217401) 公司点评 煤炭产销量上升，中期分红回报投资者--兖矿能源/煤炭开采(600188/217401) 公司点评 受益下游补库，盈利能力显著提升--泉峰控股/通用设备(02285/216401) 点评报告（港股美股） 动力煤延续去库；焦煤价格探底回升 ...

Group 1 - BYD's Fangcheng Leopard has partnered with Huawei's Qiankun Intelligent Driving, with the Leopard 8 expected to launch after Q3 2024. This collaboration aims to enhance smart driving capabilities through joint research and development, positioning the Leopard 8 as the first model to feature Huawei's ADS 3.0 technology [3][13][15] - The Leopard 8 is designed as a rugged SUV, utilizing BYD's DMO super hybrid off-road platform, which combines a 2.0T engine with dual motors for both electric and off-road capabilities. This model aims to bridge the gap between traditional performance and smart driving technology [15][19] - The partnership with Huawei is seen as a strategic move for BYD to leverage Huawei's advanced driving solutions, enhancing its own capabilities in the smart vehicle sector while expanding Huawei's market presence [13][17] Group 2 - XPeng's MONA M03 has officially launched, featuring a price range of CNY 119,800 to CNY 155,800 and a pure electric range of up to 620 km. This model is positioned as a compact sedan with advanced smart driving features, including a pure vision driving assistance system [4][22][24] - The MONA M03 is equipped with over 20 smart sensing hardware components, providing superior perception capabilities compared to competitors in the same price range. It aims to enhance user experience through a high-tech interior and advanced AI driving features [24][26] - XPeng has set ambitious goals for the next decade, aiming to become a global AI automotive company, with the MONA series marking a significant step in this direction [26] Group 3 - The A-share market has shown varied performance, with sectors like media and electric equipment seeing gains of 4.41% and 4.32%, while banking and construction sectors faced declines of 5.75% and 2.28% respectively. Notable stock performances included gains of 198.51% for Jialiqi and 126.46% for Xiaofang Pharmaceutical [28][30] - The North Exchange 50 index had a PE TTM of 29.71X as of August 30, 2024, with a trading volume average of 3.11 million shares and a turnover rate of 2.06%. Stocks like Chengdian Guangxin and Zhixin Electronics saw significant weekly gains [38][43]

Economic Overview - The domestic economy is stabilizing at a low level, with structural improvements noted in consumption and infrastructure, leading to marginal recovery in demand [8][12][23] - In August, external demand remained strong, with expectations for continued robust performance in manufacturing and exports, particularly during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season [8][12] - The "export rush" effect is expected to contribute positively to China's total exports, with estimates suggesting a boost of 0.7% to 1.5% [8][12] Liquidity - Domestic and international liquidity is approaching a turning point, with the Federal Reserve expected to initiate interest rate cuts in September, which may open a window for easing transactions [3][25] - The micro liquidity situation is improving structurally, with increased buying of small-cap growth-related ETFs [3][25] - The market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with a focus on the pace and depth of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [25][34] Policy and Risk Appetite - Domestic policies are expected to continue supporting internal demand, with an emphasis on fiscal spending and monetary policy adjustments to stimulate consumption and real estate [3][4] - The report highlights the importance of local-level support for discretionary consumption and real estate policies [4][3] September Industry Allocation - The preferred sectors for September include automotive, electronics, and pharmaceutical biotechnology, as the performance advantage of growth stocks over value stocks begins to expand [2][3] - The report indicates that the easing of monetary policy and the anticipated recovery in consumer spending will benefit these sectors [3][4]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the dynamic balance strategy has achieved an annualized absolute return of 14.89% and an annualized relative return of 13.13% from January 2015 to August 30, 2024, with a maximum drawdown of only 5.6% [16][27]. - In September, the recommended industries for the dynamic balance strategy include non-ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment and new energy, transportation, automobiles, and oil and petrochemicals [16][26]. - The absolute return for the dynamic balance strategy in August was -2.91%, underperforming the benchmark with an excess return of -1.19% [27]. Group 2 - The multi-strategy approach has achieved an annualized relative return of 7.99% from May 3, 2011, to August 30, 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 13.03% [2][33]. - Recommended industries for the multi-strategy in September include oil and petrochemicals, food and beverage, communications, construction, banking, electronics, power and utilities, and transportation [2][31]. - The absolute return for the multi-strategy in August was -3.93%, with an excess return of 0.64% [33]. Group 3 - The macro-driven strategy has achieved an annualized excess return of 4.42% from early 2016 to August 30, 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 9.51% [2][24]. - Recommended industries for the macro-driven strategy in September include coal, computers, steel, communications, electronics, and commercial retail [2][24]. - The absolute return for the macro-driven strategy in August was -4.29%, with an excess return of 0.22% [18]. Group 4 - The report highlights that the industry crowding factor indicates potential risks in sectors such as coal, building materials, defense and military, commercial retail, consumer services, pharmaceuticals, agriculture, communications, and media [35]. - The crowding factor is characterized by increased turnover rates and price volatility, which can lead to significant price deviations from normal trends [35].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][6]. Core Insights - The company, 富创精密 (Fuchuang Precision), reported a robust revenue growth of 81.80% year-on-year for H1 2024, achieving a total revenue of 1.506 billion yuan. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 27.30% to 122 million yuan, while the non-recurring net profit surged by 346.04% to 112 million yuan [1][2]. - The company is expanding its production capacity and aims to establish a semiconductor component platform, with significant investments in new facilities and acquisitions to enhance its product offerings and market reach [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.506 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 81.80%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 122 million yuan, up 27.30%, and the non-recurring net profit reached 112 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 346.04% [1][2]. - For Q2 2024, the company reported a revenue of 805 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.21% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 14.73%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 61 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 9.02% [2]. Product Revenue Growth - All product categories experienced significant revenue growth in H1 2024. Module products generated 579 million yuan, up 67.96%; structural components reached 390 million yuan, a growth of 91.65%; process components achieved 333 million yuan, increasing by 70.70%; gas pipelines generated 145 million yuan, up 98.68%; and other businesses saw a remarkable growth of 392.40%, reaching 59 million yuan [2]. Margin and Cost Analysis - The company's gross margin for H1 2024 was 26.29%, a decrease of 1.26 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 6.92%, down 4.81 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2024, the gross margin improved to 27.07%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.68 percentage points [2]. Capacity Expansion and Strategic Moves - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with the Shenyang factory nearing saturation and the Nantong factory positioned as a key production base for semiconductor equipment components. The company is also investing in a new facility in Beijing to strengthen collaborations with domestic semiconductor manufacturers [2][4]. - A significant acquisition is planned, with the company announcing its intention to acquire 100% of Beijing Yisheng Precision Semiconductor Co., Ltd. This acquisition is expected to enhance product offerings and customer access, particularly in the 12-inch wafer market [4][5]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3.268 billion yuan, 4.419 billion yuan, and 5.547 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 309 million yuan, 429 million yuan, and 572 million yuan for the same years [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies in the new materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [10]. Core Insights - The new materials industry is positioned for accelerated growth due to rapid downstream demand, policy support, and technological breakthroughs. It is considered a foundational industry that supports various sectors such as electronic information, new energy, biotechnology, and environmental protection [2][3]. - The report highlights the significant growth in 5G mobile phone shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 37.2% in July 2024, indicating strong demand for related materials [3][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with strong R&D capabilities and excellent management within the new materials supply chain [2]. Summary by Sections 1. New Materials Industry Dynamics 1.1 Electronic Information Sector - The establishment of a new integrated circuit investment fund in Beijing with a capital of 8.5 billion RMB aims to support the semiconductor industry [15]. - The launch of a joint venture for AI glasses development between Thunderbird Innovation and Doctor Glasses is expected to enhance product offerings in the AI eyewear market [15]. - The report notes a projected 23% growth in 4G/5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) CPE shipments, reaching 37.5 million units in 2024 [16]. 1.2 Aerospace Sector - The report highlights the focus on materials such as PI films, precision ceramics, and carbon fibers, which are critical for aerospace applications [6]. 1.3 New Energy Sector - The new energy sector is expected to see continued rapid growth, particularly in solar energy and lithium-ion batteries, with significant increases in installed capacity [7]. 1.4 Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology sector is witnessing advancements in synthetic biology, with companies like Weiyuan Synthetic completing significant funding rounds to expand their operations [8]. 1.5 Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection Sector - The report discusses the government's push for green transformation in traditional industries, emphasizing the importance of low-carbon technologies and sustainable practices [9]. 2. Investment Strategy - The new materials sector is expected to benefit from downstream application catalysts, leading to increased production and a favorable economic cycle [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of September 2, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in emerging industries and overseas expansion, which significantly enhances profitability [1][2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 24.535 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.91%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.288 billion yuan, up 12.15% year-on-year [2][3]. - Despite revenue pressure due to industry adjustments, the company maintained rapid profit growth, with a net profit of 1.37 billion yuan in Q2 2024, reflecting an 11.6% year-on-year increase [3]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In H1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 24.535 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.288 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.48 billion yuan, which decreased by 12.35% year-on-year [2][3]. - The Q2 2024 revenue was 12.76 billion yuan, down 6.5% year-on-year, while the net profit for the same period was 1.37 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year [3]. Product Performance - The company’s product segments showed varied performance: concrete machinery and lifting machinery saw declines of 7.58% and 17.67% respectively, while agricultural machinery grew by 112.51% [3]. Overseas Expansion - The company achieved overseas revenue of 12.05 billion yuan in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%, with overseas revenue accounting for 49.1% of total revenue, up 14.3 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 52.2 billion yuan, 62.5 billion yuan, and 75.7 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 20%, and 21% [3][6]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is 4.5 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, and 7.1 billion yuan, with growth rates of 28%, 27%, and 25% respectively [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for China Xidian (601179) [1][6][8] Core Views - China Xidian's revenue for H1 2024 reached 10.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 450 million yuan, up 5% year-on-year [3][4] - The company is expected to benefit from the high demand for ultra-high voltage (UHV) construction, with the domestic UHV sector entering a new approval peak due to the construction and operation of large wind and solar bases [5][6] - The company has strong technical capabilities in UHV technology and a solid customer base, positioning it well for future growth [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2024, the switchgear business generated revenue of 4.08 billion yuan, up 25% year-on-year, while the transformer business achieved revenue of 4.47 billion yuan, a 22% increase year-on-year [4] - The sales gross margin for H1 2024 was 18.9%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 5.5%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [3][4] - For Q2 2024, revenue was 5.63 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20% and an 18% year-on-year increase [3][4] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 23.2 billion yuan, 26.6 billion yuan, and 29.8 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10%, 14%, and 12% [6][8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 1.28 billion yuan, 1.82 billion yuan, and 2.31 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 44%, 43%, and 27% [6][8] - The report anticipates an EPS of 0.25 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.45 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company's capacity expansion continues, and its performance is expected to recover as demand rebounds [2] - The company's assets maintain strong scarcity, and the recovery in demand is expected to drive both capacity ramp-up and turnover improvement, leading to a gradual recovery in growth and profitability [4] - The company's business model is clear, and the industry's consolidation trend is certain, with future growth expected to be driven by its core business of terminal storage tanks, chemical warehouses, and a strategy of mergers and acquisitions supplemented by self-construction [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 736 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.83%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 133 million, a year-on-year decrease of 17.05% [2] - In Q2 2024, the company reported revenue of RMB 356 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.40%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 73 million, a year-on-year decrease of 20.30% [2] - The company's terminal storage tank business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 638 million, a year-on-year decrease of 6.98%, while chemical warehouse revenue was RMB 39 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.75% [3] - Other business revenue in H1 2024 was RMB 59 million, a year-on-year increase of 26.18% [3] - The gross margin of the terminal storage tank business in H1 2024 was 51.86%, a year-on-year decrease of 7.19 percentage points [3] Market Data - The current stock price is RMB 10.84, with a 52-week price range of RMB 10.04-22.60 [3] - The total market capitalization is RMB 4,959.19 million, and the circulating market capitalization is RMB 4,693.60 million [3] - The circulating shares are 432.99 million [3] Capacity Expansion - The company's operating tank capacity increased to 5.1869 million m³ in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18.26% [3] - The company has under-construction chemical warehouse capacity of 94,100 square meters, distributed in Chengdu, Nantong, Suzhou, and Changzhou, which will increase the existing warehouse area by 144.99% upon completion [3] - In May 2024, the company acquired a 60% stake in Rizhao Hongchuan Storage Co Ltd, located in the Bohai Rim Economic Circle, providing strategic support for expanding into the Bohai Rim market [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 1.587 billion, RMB 1.895 billion, and RMB 2.216 billion, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 19%, and 17%, respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 272 million, RMB 352 million, and RMB 453 million, with year-on-year growth rates of -8%, 29%, and 29%, respectively [6] - The P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 18.25x, 14.10x, and 10.96x, respectively [6] Financial Ratios - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 10%, 12%, and 13%, respectively [7] - Gross margin for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 52%, 53%, and 54%, respectively [7] - The P/B ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 1.79x, 1.62x, and 1.45x, respectively [7] - The P/S ratios for 2024-2026 are forecasted to be 3.12x, 2.62x, and 2.24x, respectively [7]