食品饮料 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年4月1日 强于大市 食品饮料行业周报 中炬高新推出激励方案，黄酒行业正在发生积极的变化 上周食品饮料板块跑输沪深 300，在各板块中涨跌幅排名居中。中炬高新推 出激励方案，目标制定积极，我们认为股权激励的实施有助于提高现有员工 积极性，助力新的管理层理顺销售机制。上周古越龙山和会稽山披露了年 报，黄酒龙头年报和酒类行业数据显示，黄酒行业正在发生积极的变化。1- 2月社零数据印证了春节需求较好，白酒1季度业绩有望延续较快增长。 市场回顾 ◼ 上周食品饮料板块绝对涨幅为-0.6%，跑输沪深 300（-0.2%）0.4pct，涨 跌幅在各行业中排名第 15。食品饮料子板块中，零食、保健品涨跌幅排 名靠前，分别为 7.6%、2.4%，预加工食品、肉制品涨跌幅排名靠后，分 别为-4.6%、-5.3%。截至 3 月 29 日，白酒板块估值（PE-TTM）为 25.6X，食品板块估值（PE-TTM）为19.6X。 行业数据 ◼ 根据今日酒价及同花顺数据，3.22-3.29 整箱飞天批价 2900-2945 元，散 瓶飞天批价 2630-2690元。普五批价 940-950 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of HKD 10.96 and a sector rating of "Outperform" [1][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 7.1 billion for 2023, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year. Operating profit was RMB 820 million, down 28.6%, and net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 550 million, a decline of 34.1% [4][6]. - The gaming segment showed resilience with a revenue increase of 6.6% year-on-year, contributing RMB 4.19 billion, which accounted for 59% of total revenue. The "Magic Domain" IP demonstrated strong performance with a revenue increase of 12.4% [5][6]. - The education segment, represented by Mynd.ai, faced challenges with a revenue drop of 25.7% to RMB 2.91 billion, primarily due to post-pandemic adjustments [5][6]. - The company is actively investing in AI technology, significantly increasing its usage in game art production from 14% in Q1 2023 to 58% in Q4 2023, leading to a 300% reduction in labor costs [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 7,101 million, down from RMB 7,866 million in 2022, reflecting a 9.73% decline [6][7]. - Gross profit increased slightly to RMB 4,398 million, with a gross margin of 61.93%, up 7.08 percentage points from the previous year [7][10]. - The company plans to achieve net profits of RMB 1,024 million, RMB 1,211 million, and RMB 1,353 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 5.2, 4.4, and 3.9 [6][10].

基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年4月1日 强于大市 化工行业周报 20240331 原油价格继续走高，无水氢氟酸价格上涨 4 月份建议关注：1、大宗商品价格上行，关注大型能源央企及相关油服公司在新时代背景下的 改革改善与经营业绩提升；2、年报一季报超预期公司行情；3、下游催化较多，估值仍处相对 低位的半导体、OLED等电子材料公司；4、化纤、制冷剂、化肥等子行业的旺季及补库行情。 行业动态  本周（3.25-3.31）均价跟踪的101个化工品种中，共有27个品种价格上涨，43个品种价格 下跌，31 个品种价格稳定。周均价涨幅居前的品种分别是液氨（河北新化）、硝酸(华东地 区)、无水氢氟酸（华东）、PP(余姚市场 J340/扬子)、离子膜烧碱（30%折百）；而周均价 跌幅居前的品种分别是磷矿石（摩洛哥)、甲基环硅氧烷、环氧氯丙烷（华东）、天然橡胶 （上海地区）、纯MDI（华东）。  本周（3.25-3.31）国际油价高位盘整，WTI原油收于83.17美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅2.59%； 布伦特原油收于87.48美元/桶，收盘价周涨幅1.98%。宏观方面，美国2023年第四季度GDP 年化增 ...

内、外需共同对制造业订单形成支撑。"大规模设备更新"或是月内制造业 景气度的重要支撑。互联网传媒相关服务业景气度明显回升。 证券分析师：朱启兵 (8610)66229359 Qibing.Zhu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300516090001 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-----------------------|------------------|------------------|---------|--------------------| | | | PMI | | | | 从业人员 | 供应商配送指数 | 50.8 53.0 50.6 | | 新订单 新出口订单 | | 出厂价格 | | 48.1 | | 51.3 在手订单 | | | | 48.9 47.4 | | 47.6 | | 原材料库存 产成品库存 | | 50.5 52.2 48.1 | 50.4 | 52.7 采购量 进口 | | | 生产经营活动预期 | 55.6 生产 | | 主要原材料购进价格 | | | 2024-03 | | 2024-02 | ...

社会服务 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2024年4月1日 强于大市 社会服务行业双周报 清明假期将至，出行需求持续释放 前两交易周（2024.03.18-2023.03.29）社会服务板块下跌 0.58%，在申万一 级31个行业排名中位列第16。社会服务板块跑赢沪深300指数0.33pct。清 明节即将到来，出行搜索及预定热度快速增长，我们维持行业强于大市评 级。 市场回顾 ◼ 前两交易周社会服务板块下跌 0.58%，社会服务子板块及旅游零售板块 中 2 个上涨，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：专业服务（+1.87%）、旅游及景 区（+0.63%）、教育（-1.79%）、酒店餐饮（-4.34%）、旅游零售（- 4.40%）。 ◼ 北上资金方面，前两交易周北上资金减持首旅酒店 0.41pct至 1.40%，增 持中青旅0.08pct至0.66%，减持中国中免0.22pct至6.70%，减持宋城演 艺0.05pct至1.57%，减持锦江酒店0.33pct至2.40%的持股比例。 行业动态数据 ◼ 据 Datayes， 3.18-3.24 新增招聘公司数量和帖数环比+7.86%、+5.61%， 新增数量上二者皆为今年以来 ...

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2024 年 4 月 1 日 600885.SH 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 25.17 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 (32%) (24%) (16%) (7%) 1% 10% Mar-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23Nov-23Dec-23Jan-24Feb-24Mar-24 宏发股份 上证综指 绝对 (6.1) 1.1 (8.9) (24.3) 相对上证综指 (8.7) 0.2 (11.2) (18.2) | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------|-----------| | | | | | 发行股数 ( 百万 ) | | 1,042.68 | | 流通股 ( 百万 ) | | 1,042.68 | | 总市值 ( 人民币 百万 ) | | 26,244.15 | | 3 个月日均交易额 ( 人民币 | 百万 ) | 206.69 | | 主要股东 | | | | ...

Macro Economic Overview - In February, the new social financing scale increased by 1.56 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year, falling short of market expectations [2] - The total social financing stock grew by 9.0% year-on-year, a decline of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - M2 growth remained flat year-on-year at 8.70%, while M1 growth decreased by 1.20%, down 4.7 percentage points from the previous month [3] - The overall credit environment showed a contraction in February, primarily due to a significant reduction in household loans [3] Real Estate Market Analysis - In February, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.6% [4][20] - The number of cities with declining new home prices increased to 59, with an average decline of 0.46%, which is a slight narrowing compared to January [20] - The downward pressure on housing prices remains significant, with new home prices having declined for nine consecutive months and second-hand prices for ten months [20] - The first-tier cities showed a mixed performance, with Shanghai experiencing a slight increase in new home prices by 0.2%, while other cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen continued to see declines [21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on four main lines of investment: 1. State-owned enterprises with solid fundamentals and no liquidity risks, such as Poly Developments and China Merchants Shekou [22] 2. Private enterprises with relatively high safety factors, like Binjiang Group and Midea Real Estate [22] 3. Companies showing signs of recovery from the bottom, such as Gemdale Corporation and Longfor Group [22] 4. Opportunities related to urban village renovations and affordable housing projects, including China Communications Construction and Urban Development [22]

Group 1 - The report highlights that high dividend stocks remain a primary allocation direction during the performance window, as liquidity expectations disturb the market [27][49] - Industrial enterprises' profit growth maintained an upward trend in January and February, indicating a continuous recovery in profitability, primarily driven by midstream manufacturing sectors [26][29] - The report notes that the inventory bottoming out is becoming more evident, but the rebound in nominal inventory still requires observation of the sustainability of demand recovery [26][27] Group 2 - The "barbell strategy" is emphasized as a favorable allocation strategy, with high dividend stocks entering a more favorable price-performance ratio [47] - The report discusses the recent launch of Xiaomi's first car, the SU7, which has received positive market feedback, highlighting investment opportunities in Xiaomi's automotive supply chain and smart driving [54][55] - Gold prices have reached historical highs, with the report indicating that the strong performance of gold stocks is expected to continue in the short term due to factors such as increased central bank purchases and rising geopolitical risks [61][62]

大宗商品：建材品种表现仍较弱势 大宗商品一周要闻（新闻来源：万得） 英国石油天然气管理局（NSTA）正在制定更严格的指导方针，要求生产商减少排放。该机构称，一 项更新的排放计划明确指出，要想继续在北海进行油气生产，就必须变得更加清洁，如果运营商可 以减少排放却选择不这样做，那么就不应该指望获得批准。 货币类：各品种货币基金收益率表现不一 人民币兑美元中间价本周下行54BP，至7.095。本周人民币兑多数海外货币呈现升值：兑韩元(1.23%）、 兑澳元(1.09%）、兑欧元(0.9%）、兑瑞郎(0.59%）、兑兰特(0.59%）、兑卢布(0.47%）、兑林吉特 (0.43%）、兑英镑(0.39%）、兑加元(0.04%）；但兑日元有所贬值（-0.08%）。从长期逻辑看，受到 中美经济周期错位的影响，国内"扩内需"或对"宽货币"有着更多需求；外部货币的持续强势或 对人民币汇率形成一定压力。 图表 21. 人民币兑主要货币汇率波动 图表 22. 人民币贬值预期和美元兑人民币汇率走势 2024 年 3 月 31 日 宏观和大类资产配置周报 13 图表 23. 恒指走势 图表 24. 陆港通资金流动情况 港股及海外一周要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting its stock price to outperform the benchmark index by more than 20% in the next 6-12 months [11]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 5.378 billion in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 624 million, up 4.2% year-on-year [4][5]. - The report highlights that the beer industry is undergoing structural upgrades, and the company is expected to continue benefiting from its "3+N" brand strategy, which focuses on enhancing marketing efforts and product mix [5][6]. - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is RMB 0.33, RMB 0.37, and RMB 0.42, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 14.0%, and 12.3% respectively [4][5]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Growth**: The company reported a total revenue of RMB 5.378 billion in 2023, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The beer business showed strong performance with volume and price increases of 4.8% and 4.1% respectively [4][5]. - **Profitability**: The net profit margin slightly decreased due to reduced interest income, with the net profit margin for 2023 at 11.6% [5][6]. - **Cost Structure**: The cost per ton increased by 3.4% to RMB 2,192, but the gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 42.8% due to product mix upgrades [5][6]. - **Quarterly Performance**: In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 830 million, with a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. However, it reported a net loss of RMB 20 million due to increased costs and lower prices [5][6]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a forecast for the company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, which is expected to decrease from 28.9 in 2022 to 18.6 by 2026, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4][5]. - The expected dividend per share remains stable at RMB 0.1 for 2023, with a projected increase to RMB 0.2 by 2025 [4][5].