Group 1 - The report highlights that the strong US dollar is currently restraining risk assets, and future market stabilization may be driven by large-cap companies in weak sectors [2][12][28] - The report indicates that the market is experiencing a narrowing focus on large-cap core companies in strong sectors, particularly in home appliances, banking, and electronics, while small-cap stocks in weak sectors show lower allocation interest [25][27][28] - The report suggests that the upcoming policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in the home appliance, automotive, and home decoration sectors, are expected to stimulate demand and drive performance in related industries [2][25] Group 2 - The report discusses the potential for the humanoid robot market, with Tesla's Optimus expected to enter a phase of accelerated penetration starting in 2025, drawing parallels to the development path of electric vehicles [30][31] - The report notes that major cloud service providers like Microsoft and Amazon are expected to continue high capital expenditures in data centers, which will benefit the AI computing industry chain [34][36] - The report emphasizes that the robotics sector is entering an initial stage of investment prosperity, with significant opportunities anticipated for companies involved in the supply chain of humanoid robots [30][31][36]

Macro Economic Overview - The first expectation for January 2025 is that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates[1] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates significant uncertainty in the economic prospects of Europe and the US over the next year[3] Asset Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.13%, and the CSI 300 Index futures dropped by 0.99% this week[1] - Coking coal futures decreased by 5.34%, while iron ore main contracts fell by 1.89%[1] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 3 basis points to 1.63%[1] Investment Strategy - Recommended asset allocation order: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[1] - Stocks are currently overweight due to the focus on the implementation of incremental policies[3] - Bonds are underweight as the "stock-bond seesaw" may impact the bond market in the short term[3] Economic Indicators - In December 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.3%[4] - The US non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000 in December 2024, significantly exceeding the expected 160,000[5] Currency and Interest Rates - The seven-day annualized yield of Yu'ebao fell by 5 basis points to 1.22%[1] - The US dollar index rose by 0.68% to 109.66, reflecting a strong dollar trend[5] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a second wave of global inflation and a rapid decline in the European and American economies[5]

Inflation Overview - December CPI year-on-year growth was 0.1%, down from 0.2% in November, primarily due to weak food prices[2] - December PPI year-on-year decline was 2.3%, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%[12] CPI Analysis - December CPI month-on-month growth remained flat, with food prices decreasing by 0.6% and non-food prices increasing by 0.1%[3] - For 2024, the cumulative CPI growth was 0.2%, with food prices down 0.6% and service prices up 0.7%[6] PPI Insights - December PPI showed a slight increase compared to November, but the overall trend remains downward due to seasonal factors[17] - Key industries experiencing price declines include petroleum and coal processing (-8.7%) and chemical manufacturing (-4.8%) in December[13] Future Projections - CPI is expected to rise to 0.9% in 2025, with quarterly fluctuations, peaking at 1.3% in Q4[6] - PPI is projected to decline by 0.6% in 2025, with a potential recovery to 1.1% by Q4[17] Demand Factors - Insufficient domestic demand is identified as the main factor dragging down CPI growth, particularly in food prices[6] - The service price growth has shown a slight upward trend since Q4 2024, indicating potential recovery[6]

Export Performance - In 2024, China's total export value increased by 5.9% year-on-year, continuing positive growth, with a 0.5 percentage point acceleration compared to the previous 11 months[4] - December 2024 exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year, a significant increase of 4.0 percentage points from November 2024[4] - The trade surplus for December 2024 reached $104.84 billion, an increase of $7.4 billion from the previous month[4] Trade Partners Contribution - Major trade partners contributed positively to the export growth in December, with a total contribution of 6.5 percentage points, up by 2.0 percentage points from November[2] - The United States contributed 2.2 percentage points to the December export growth, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from November[2] - ASEAN remained China's largest trading partner, with exports to the region growing by 18.9% year-on-year in December[4] Import Trends - In 2024, imports increased by 1.1% year-on-year, with a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous 11 months[4] - December 2024 imports grew by 1.0% year-on-year, improving by 4.9 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The trade surplus for the entire year was $99.216 billion, indicating a strong export performance relative to imports[4] Industry Insights - The automotive supply chain and electromechanical products showed strong export performance, with automotive exports growing by 15.5% year-on-year[4] - High-tech products like integrated circuits and automatic data processing equipment saw export growth rates of 17.4% and 9.9%, respectively, both exceeding the overall export growth rate[4] - The "export rush" to the U.S. has been a significant support for the year-end export growth, reflecting high overseas procurement willingness among U.S. manufacturers[4]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [10]. Core Insights - AI programming tools have validated Product Market Fit (PMF), which indicates a high likelihood of commercialization. The rapid development of AI coding tools since 2021, including products from major companies, highlights the growing market [3][5]. - The AI coding tools can significantly reduce costs and improve efficiency, with potential user base expansion. According to McKinsey, the adoption of AI programming tools can lower software development costs by 30%-50% while increasing development speed [5]. - The growth potential of AI coding is substantial, with the global AI programming market projected to grow from $4.29 billion in 2023 to $24.46 billion by 2031, reflecting a CAGR of 24.3% [5]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with relevant technologies, including Puyuan Information, Huasheng Tiancai, Ruantong Power, Jiuqi Software, and Zhejiang University Network New [3]. Market Trends - The AI programming market is experiencing rapid growth, with significant developments in low-code and no-code platforms. The Chinese AI code generation market is expected to grow from 6.5 billion RMB in 2023 to 33 billion RMB by 2028, with a CAGR of 38.4% [5].

房地产行业 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 1 月 8 日 强大于市 相关研究报告 《70 城房价环比跌幅持续收窄，一线新房房价止 跌》（2024/12/17） 《"旧改为主、收储为辅"贯穿 2025 年地产行业主 线 》（2024/12/14） 《住房交易税收政策调整，体现政府让利意愿及稳 定房地产市场的决心 》（2024/11/14） 《房贷利率机制调整超预期，沪深广松绑行政政 策；看好地产板块行情延续！》（2024/09/30） 《央行拟于近期降准并引导 LPR 及存量房贷利率 下降；北京拟适时取消普宅与非普分类标准》 （2024/09/27） 《政治局会议首提"促进房地产市场止跌回稳"，地 产拐点已至》（2024/09/26） 《房地产行业 2024 年中期策略——下半年地产空 间在哪?》（2024/07/30） 《这轮地产政策能刺激多少需求？》 （2024/05/21） 《为什么是 3000 亿？》（2024/05/21） 《这次地产不一样？》（2024/05/13） 《房地产行业 2024 年度策略——行业寒冬尚在延 续，房企能否行稳致远？》（2024/01/03） 中银国际证券股份 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 1 月 8 日 | 1 月金股组合 | | | --- | --- | | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 002120.SZ | 韵达股份 | | 601857.SH | 中国石油 | | 688019.SH | 安集科技 | | 300750.SZ | 宁德时代 | | 688085.SH | 三友医疗 | | 000848.SZ | 承德露露 | | 605108.SH | 同庆楼 | 中银晨会聚焦-20250108 资料来源：万得，中银证券 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 【金融工程】基于公募重仓的"黑白马股"因子专题*郭策。我们基于公募重 仓数据集构建了多因子选股策略，同时针对分组收益特征呈现"U 型"的因子 提出了可行的因子重构方案。经过回测，模型在沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 范围内，均能获得稳健的超额收益。 【食品饮料】贵州茅台*邓天娇。贵州茅台发布 2024 年生产经营情况公告。 2024 年公司预计实现营业总收入 1738 亿元，同比+15.44%，归属母公司股 东净利润 857 亿元，同比+14.67%。2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) with a target price of RMB 1,440 00 [1] - The sector rating is **Outperform** [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai achieved its 2024 targets with an estimated operating revenue of RMB 173 8 billion (+15 4% YoY) and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 85 7 billion (+14 7% YoY) [3] - The company announced a "three-year dividend plan" with a payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 and a mid-year dividend of RMB 23 882 per share (totaling over RMB 30 billion) [5] - A share buyback plan of RMB 3-6 billion was announced to enhance investor confidence [5] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 68 23, 74 46, and 81 19 for 2024-2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21 1X, 19 3X, and 17 7X [5] Business Performance - In 2024, Moutai liquor revenue reached RMB 145 8 billion (+15 2% YoY), while series liquor revenue grew to RMB 24 6 billion (+19 2% YoY) [8] - Q4 2024 saw a slowdown in series liquor revenue growth to 3 4%, while Moutai liquor maintained double-digit growth at 13 6% [8] - The company produced 56 3k tons of Moutai base liquor (-1 6% YoY) and 48 1k tons of series liquor base liquor (+12 0% YoY) in 2024 [8] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on "three transformations" (customer base, consumption scenarios, and service) to adapt to market changes [8] - For 2025, Moutai plans to slightly increase domestic market allocation of Moutai liquor, reduce the allocation of 53-degree 500ml premium Moutai, and increase the allocation of 1000ml bottles to stabilize prices [8] - The company aims to build three RMB 10 billion business units for series liquor: Moutai 1935, Moutai Prince, and Han Sauce [8] Financial Projections - Operating revenue is projected to grow to RMB 187 6 billion (+10 0% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 207 0 billion (+10 3% YoY) in 2026 [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach RMB 93 5 billion (+9 1% YoY) in 2025 and RMB 102 0 billion (+9 0% YoY) in 2026 [7] - EBITDA is forecasted to grow to RMB 127 1 billion in 2025 and RMB 138 9 billion in 2026 [7]

交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 1 月 7 日 强于大市 交通运输行业周报 民航春运旅客运输量预计突破 9000 万人次， 2024 年 12 月物流业景气指数为 53.1% 航运方面，新加坡港年吞吐量突破 4000 万标箱，我国首艘氨动力船舶建造 完工交付。航空方面，中国航空公司 2024 年旅客运输量突破 7 亿人次，民 航春运旅客运输量预计突破 9000 万人次。快递物流方面，2024 年社会物流 总额将超 360 万亿元，12 月份中国物流业景气指数为 53.1%。 核心观点： ①新加坡港年吞吐量突破 4000 万标箱，我国首艘氨动力船舶建造完工 交付。12 月 27 日，新加坡港务集团(PSA Singapore)发布消息，该集团 集装箱处理量创新高，在 2024 年突破 4000 万标箱(TEU)，继续紧追刚 刚突破 5000 万标箱的上海港。2024 年 12 月 30 日，中远海运重工"氨 动力科研专项"示范项目-5500HP 氨动力港口作业船建造完工，中国船 级社大连分社为该船舶颁发国内首张氨燃料船舶证书，在航运业中，氨 燃料不仅能够显著降低碳排放，还有助于优化全球能 ...

证券研究报告——晨会聚焦 2025 年 1 月 7 日 | | | 1 月金股组合 股票代码 股票名称 002120.SZ 韵达股份 中银晨会聚焦-20250107 601857.SH 中国石油 688019.SH 安集科技 ■重点关注 300750.SZ 宁德时代 688085.SH 三友医疗 000848.SZ 承德露露 605108.SH 同庆楼 【基础化工】宝丰能源*余嫄嫄 徐中良。宝丰能源是煤基多联产循环经济示 范企业，依托煤制烯烃工艺路线优势，生产技术迭代升级以及公司管理效率 提升等，公司经营业绩持续向好，未来随着内蒙古基地新产能释放，公司发 展或迈上新台阶。 | 市场指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌% | | 上证综指 | | 3206.92 | (0.14) | | 深证成指 | | 9885.65 | (0.12) | | 沪深 | 300 | 3768.97 | (0.16) | | 中小 | 100 | 6079.35 | 0.06 | | 创业板指 | | 2014.19 | (0.09) | | 行业表现 ...